Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:
日経平均株価 終値4万2718円 史上最高値更新 なぜ？ 今後は？(1/2)
2025年8月12日 18時52分
連休明けの12日の東京株式市場、アメリカの関税措置をめぐる不透明感が薄らいだとして自動車など輸出関連の銘柄に多くの買い注文が入り、日経平均株価は4万2718円で取り引きを終え、終値の史上最高値を更新しました。
取引時間中も史上最高値更新 4万2999円71銭
連休明けの12日の東京株式市場は、自動車などの輸出関連銘柄に買い注文が入り、日経平均株価は取り引きが始まって15分ほどで去年7月につけた取引時間中の史上最高値を更新しました。
さらに午後に入ってからも積極的な買い注文が続き、日経平均株価は4万2999円71銭まで上昇し、史上最高値をさらに更新しました。
その後は利益を確保しようという売り注文も出ましたが、結局、日経平均株価は先週末の終値と比べて897円69銭高い4万2718円17銭で取り引きを終え、終値の史上最高値も更新しました。
▽東証株価指数＝トピックスは42.16上がって3066.37。
▽1日の出来高は27億8177万株。
一方、アメリカの関税措置で日本の自動車メーカーが減益や赤字になるなど、企業業績への影響が明らかになる中での株価上昇には過熱感があるといった指摘も出ています。
市場関係者は「これから関税措置の影響がアメリカ経済にどのような形であらわれるのかに投資家の関心が集まっている。今後発表される経済指標の内容が株価を左右する展開も予想される」と話しています。
注目
最高値更新の背景は？
アメリカの関税措置に対する不透明感が薄れたことで株価が上昇した東京市場。
市場関係者からはそのほかの要因もあがっています。
要因1. 《市場の楽観的なムード》
ことし4月、アメリカのトランプ大統領が相互関税を打ち出した際、投資家の間では世界経済の先行きに対する懸念が強まり、世界の株式市場が同時株安に見舞われました。
しかし、100％を超える高い関税をかけ合っていたアメリカと中国が関税の引き下げで合意するなど、深刻な事態が回避される中で投資家の間では「トランプ大統領は高い関税率を突きつけても最後は柔軟な姿勢を示す」といった見方が出ています。
こうしたいわば楽観的な見方にもとづく市場の取り引きは、アメリカのトランプ大統領はいつも尻込みするという意味の「Trump AlwaysChickensOut」を略した「TACOトレード」と呼ばれ、関税措置で先行きが不透明な状況でも積極的な買いを支えていると見られています。
要因2. 《アメリカから日本への投資マネーの流入》
楽観的なムードがある一方、投資家の間では関税措置によってアメリカ経済が高いインフレに見舞われ、景気が減速するのではないかといった警戒感が根強くあります。
こうした中、投資先がアメリカに集中しないよう日本などに分散させる動きが出ていたという指摘が出ています。
世界の投資マネーの動向を調べている民間の調査会社は、資産運用会社や機関投資家などがアメリカでの投資を減らす一方、日本やヨーロッパでの投資を増やしていると分析。こうしたマネーの流れが日本を含めてアジアやヨーロッパ各国でのこれまでの株高につながっていたとみられています。
(to be continued)
Translation
Nikkei Stock Average Closes at ¥42,718, a New Record
High. Why? What's Next? (1/2)
On the 12th, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, after the long holiday, saw a surge in buy orders for export-related stocks such as automobiles as uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff measures eased. The Nikkei Stock Average closed at ¥42,718, a new record closing price.
Also saw a new record high during trading hours:
¥42,999.71
On the 12th, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, after the long holiday, saw a surge in buy orders for export-related stocks such as automobiles. Within 15 minutes of trading, the Nikkei Stock Average surpassed its all-time intraday high set last July.
Furthermore, aggressive buy orders continued into the afternoon, pushing the Nikkei Stock Average to ¥42,999.71, further breaking its all-time high.
Although some sell orders were subsequently made by investors seeking to lock in profits, the Nikkei Stock Average ultimately closed at 42,718.17 yen, up 897.69 yen from last week's closing price and setting a new all-time closing high.
▽The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) rose 42.16 points to 3,066.37.
▽Daily trading volume was 2.78177 billion shares.
The rise in stock prices was due to the fact that there were
growing expectations regarding the content of the recent Japan-U.S. agreement on
America's tariff measures were being made known thus reducing uncertainty about
the future. In addition, concerns about US-China trade friction eased after the
US announced it would extend the suspension of some additional tariffs on
Chinese imports.
On the other hand, some had pointed out that the rise in
stock prices was overheating amid the growing impact on corporate performance,
with Japanese automakers seeing reduced profits and even losses due to the US
tariffs.
Market participants commented, " Investor interest is
growing on impacts of tariff measures will manifest in the U.S. economy from
now on. The content of economic indicators to be announced in the future is
expected to influence stock prices."
Observation
What's Behind the New High?
Stock prices in the Tokyo market rose as uncertainty
surrounding the U.S. tariffs eased.
Market participants also cited other factors.
Factor 1: Market Optimism
When U.S. President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs in April this year, investors became increasingly concerned about the outlook for the global economy, leading to a synchronized selloff in global stock markets.
However, the United States and China, which had been
imposing high tariffs of over 100% on each other, had now agreed to lower
tariffs etc., a serious situation was averted. Among the investors were now held
the view that "President Trump will ultimately show flexibility, even if
he confronts you with high tariffs."
These market trade so to speak were believed to be based on
the optimism, known in abbreviation as the "TACO trade" with TACO
stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," a reference to President
Trump's constant hesitation, it supported aggressive buying even amid the
uncertainty surrounding the tariff measures.
Factor 2: Inflow of Investment Money from the United States to Japan
Despite the optimistic mood, investors remained wary that
the tariff measures could lead to high inflation and a slowdown in the U.S.
economy.
Amid this, some had pointed out that there was a trend toward diversifying investments to Japan and other locations to avoid concentrating them in the U.S.
A private research firm which tracked global investment trends had analyzed and found that asset management companies and institutional investors were reducing their investments in the U.S. while increasing them in Japan and Europe. This flow of money was believed to have led to the recent rise in stock prices in Asia, Europe, and Japan.
(to be continued)
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