Nikkei Stock Average Closes at ¥42,718, a New Record High. Why? What's Next? (2/2)

 Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

日経平均株価 終値4万2718円 史上最高値更新 なぜ？ 今後は？(2/2)

2025年8月12日 18時52分

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専門家「プラス要因が関税のマイナス要因を相殺か」

日経平均株価が史上最高値を更新したことについて、みずほ証券の小林俊介チーフエコノミストは「アメリカの関税政策は最悪のシナリオは免れたものの、半年前に比べると非常に高い関税率が残ることになり、最高値を更新しているのは非常に不思議な部分だ。ただ、足もとの決算を見ると、値上げをしっかり行って利益を増やす企業やAI特需があるなどプラスの要因が重なる状況となっている。そうしたプラスの要因が関税によるマイナス要因を相殺して最高値を更新したのではないか」と分析しています。

また「株価は高値となっているが、本当にそれに見合うような業績が付いてくるのか、投資家は半信半疑の状況にあると思う。半信半疑だからこそ、上昇したときにあとから追いかけるように買う人たちが出てきて株価が上昇するのではないか」と指摘しています。

そのうえで、今後の株価の見通しについて、小林チーフエコノミストは「急速な株価の上昇はどこかで止まると思っている。それから先は、企業の業績がまだ伸びるのかどうかや、関税の影響が価格転嫁の形で出てきても景気は失速しないのかが日米、世界に対して問われてくるし、米中の関税協議の結果にも注目が集まる。実体経済、関税交渉、そして日米を中心とした金融政策が今後の重要な材料になってくる」と指摘しています。

 

株価上昇 今後は？

市場関係者の多くは今後も株価の上昇傾向が続くかどうかは、アメリカの経済情勢がカギを握っていると見ています。

関税措置による高インフレや景気減速への警戒感がありますが、市場関係者の間ではこれまでに発表されたアメリカの経済指標には関税措置の影響がまだ鮮明にあらわれていないという見方も出ています。

アメリカの経済情勢は世界経済、そして世界の金融市場への影響も大きいだけに、これから発表される経済指標の内容やFRB＝連邦準備制度理事会が景気の現状をどう分析するのかに市場の関心が集まっています。

 

関税が揺さぶった東京市場

ことしに入り東京市場の株価はアメリカのトランプ大統領によるいわゆる「トランプ関税」に揺さぶられてきました。

ことし初めの日経平均株価は、トランプ大統領の政策への期待感から関連する銘柄を積極的に買う「トランプトレード」に支えられ、4万円に近い高い水準でスタートしました。

しかし、トランプ大統領が正式に就任して以降、「トランプ関税」をめぐる動きに株価は大きく反応します。

2月以降、トランプ大統領がメキシコやカナダ、中国に対する関税措置、また鉄鋼やアルミへの関税などに言及するたびに世界経済が打撃を受けるという懸念が強まり、東京市場もたびたび大幅な下落に見舞われました。

そして4月2日、トランプ大統領が世界各国への相互関税を発表し、ただちに中国が報復関税に踏み切ると、米中貿易摩擦への警戒感が一気に高まり、世界の株式市場が軒並み株安に見舞われる「世界同時株安」の様相となりました。

なかでも4月7日の日経平均株価は2644円と過去3番目に大きい下落となり、3万1000円台まで下落しました。

ところが、アメリカで株安、ドル安、債券安の「トリプル安」が進むとトランプ大統領は一転、相互関税の一時停止を発表。

そして、100％を超える高い関税をかけ合っていた米中が関税の引き下げで合意すると投資家の懸念は一気に和らぎ、これを機に株価は上昇傾向に転じます。

さらに「トランプ大統領は高い関税率を突きつけても最後は柔軟に対応する」という投資家の楽観的な見方も支えとなり、日本ではとくに海外投資家による積極的な買いが続きました。

そして先月23日には最大の課題だった日米の関税交渉が合意。当初は大統領令に合意内容が反映されていませんでしたが、アメリカ側から修正の意向が示されると株価は一段と押し上げられ、日経平均株価はおよそ1年ぶりに史上最高値を更新しました。

Translation

Nikkei Stock Average Closes at ¥42,718, Reaches New All-Time High. Why? What's Next? (2/2)

August 12, 2025, 6:52 PM

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Expert: "Positive Factors May Offset the Negative Impact of Tariffs"

Regarding the Nikkei Stock Average's record high, Mizuho Securities Chief Economist Shunsuke Kobayashi (小林俊介) analyzed, "While the worst-case scenario for the U.S. tariff policy has been avoided, tariff rates remain significantly higher than they were six months ago, making it very strange that it has reached a new all-time high. However, looking at recent financial results, we see a combination of positive factors, such as companies steadily increasing profits through price hikes and a surge in demand for AI. These positive factors likely offset the negative impact of tariffs, leading to the record high."

He also pointed out, "Stock prices are high, but I think investors are skeptical about whether the resulting performance will really justify that. It's precisely because of this skepticism that when stock prices rise, people will chase them and start to buy them, causing stock prices to rise."

Regarding the outlook for stock prices, Chief Economist Kobayashi pointed out that "I think the rapid rise in stock prices will come to a halt at some point. From there onward, whether the company's performance will continue to grow, and will the economy still slow down even if the impact of tariffs is passed on to prices? These will be questioned by Japan, the US, and the world, and attention will also be focused on the outcome of the US-China tariff negotiations. The real economy, tariff negotiations, and monetary policy centered on Japan and the United States will be important factors in the future.”

Rising Stock Prices: What's Next?

Many market participants saw that the state of the US economy held the key to whether stock prices would continue to rise.

While there was concern about high inflation and an economic slowdown due to tariffs, some market participants pointed out that the impact of the tariffs as reflected in the US economic indicators had not yet clearly emerged.

Given the U.S. economic situation has significant impact on the global economy and on global financial markets, market attention was focused on upcoming economic indicators and on how the Federal Reserve would analyze the current economic situation.

Tariffs Shake the Tokyo Market

Since the beginning of this year, stock prices on the Tokyo market had been shaken by the so-called "Trump tariffs" imposed by U.S. President Trump.

The Nikkei Stock Average began the year at a high level of nearly 40,000 yen, supported by the "Trump trade," in which investors actively bought stocks related to President Trump's policies in response to expectations.

However, since President Trump officially took office, stock prices reacted significantly to developments surrounding the "Trump tariffs."

Since February, whenever President Trump mentioned tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, or tariffs on steel and aluminum, concerns about a negative impact on the global economy grew, and the Tokyo market again and again suffered significant declines.

Then, on April 2nd, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world, and China immediately imposed retaliatory tariffs. This led to a sudden rise in concerns about US-China trade friction, and stock markets around the world fell across the board, resulting in a "global stock market crash."

Among them, the Nikkei average on April 7 fell to 2,644 yen, its third-largest drop ever, dropping to the 31,000-yen range.

However, as the US experienced a "triple decline" of falling stocks, the dollar, and bonds, President Trump made a complete change and announced a temporary suspension of the reciprocal tariffs.

Then, when the US and China, which had been imposing high tariffs of over 100% on each other, agreed to lower tariffs, investor concerns immediately eased, and this was an opportunity for stock prices to rise.

Furthermore, investor optimism that "President Trump will ultimately be flexible, even if he imposes high tariffs," also supported continued aggressive buying in Japan, especially among foreign investors.

Then, on the 23rd of last month, an agreement was reached on the tariff negotiations between Japan and the US, the biggest issue on the agenda. Initially, the contents of the agreement were not made clear in the presidential order, but when the US side indicated its intention to correct it, stock prices rose further, and the Nikkei Stock Average reached its highest level in about a year.

              So, Japan has witnessed a surge in buy orders for export-related stocks such as automobiles as uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff measures eased. The rise in stock prices is due to the fact that the key points of the Japan-U.S. agreement has been made known thus reducing uncertainty about the future. Despite the optimistic mood, investors remain wary that the tariff measures may lead to high inflation in the U.S. and slowdown its economy. Amid this, there is a trend toward diversifying investments to Japan and other locations to avoid concentrating them in the U.S. Apparently, the US tariff war is changing the flow of global stock markets.