兩名男子首次在英國史上被判為中國從事間諜活動（2/2）

 Recently The Guardian reported the following:

Two men first in British history to be found guilty of spying for China (2/2)

Chi Leung Wai and Chung Biu Yuen convicted over surveillance of dissidents in ‘shadow policing’ operation

The Guardian - Daniel Boffey, and Amy Hawkins in Beijing

Thu 7 May 2026 12.43 EDT

(continue)

The spying ring was uncovered when police thwarted an apparent attempt to kidnap Monica Kwong, a personal assistant who had fled Hong Kong in 2023 after being accused of defrauding her employer, Tina Zhou, out of £16m.

Wai was arrested on 1 May 2024 in Kwong’s flat in Pontefract, West Yorkshire, along with Trickett, then a serving Home Office immigration officer, as well as Zhou and two former Hong Kong police officers who had flown to London to confront the personal assistant over the alleged fraud.

The group had sought to trick their way into Kwong’s home by posing as electricians who had come to repair a fuse, the court heard. Trickett poured bottled water on the floor to simulate a fake flood as part of one failed ruse to get Kwong out of the flat.

When the group subsequently broke in to Kwong’s home, police who had been bugging them were waiting to take the suspects into custody.

Wai, who was known to associates as Fatboy, denied he had been providing intelligence to Chinese authorities for years.

As a teenager he joined the Royal Navy in an engineering role, and he was placed on attachment with the Royal Marines before joining the Royal Navy police. He was also an instructor in the traditional Chinese martial art of lion dancing and his troupe had performed at 10 Downing Street.

He claimed that a chat group on which he was accused of sharing intelligence was to do with a company run by his lion dancing master and that he was simply passing on information about UK life. But jurors were shown messages between Yuen and Wai that the prosecution said showed them discussing plans to target activists, who were referred to as “cockroaches”.

In response to the convictions, Home Office minister Dan Jarvis said: “The activities carried out by these men, on behalf of China, are an infringement of our sovereignty and will never be tolerated.

“We will continue to hold China to account and challenge them directly for actions which put the safety of people in our country at risk. That is why the Foreign Office will summon the Chinese Ambassador to make it clear activity like this was, and will always be, unacceptable on UK soil.

“This case proves the strength of the powers we have to protect us from hostile activity carried out by foreign states and these convictions should send a clear message – there will be serious consequences for anyone who seeks to undermine our security.”

A Chinese embassy spokesperson said: “The facts of this case clearly show that this is nothing but a political move of abusing the law and manipulating the judicial process by the UK side. Its sole purpose is to embolden those anti-China elements who are hiding in the UK and bent on destabilizing Hong Kong”

Translation

兩名男子首次在英國史上被判為中國從事間諜活動（2/2）

衛志樑和袁松彪因參與「影子警察」行動監視異見人士而被定罪

（繼續）

警方因挫敗了一單綁架Monica Kwong的企圖而揭露了這個間諜集團。Kwong是一名私人助理，她於2023年逃離香港，此前她被指控詐騙其雇主Tina Zhou 1,600萬英鎊。

2024年5月1日，衛某在西約克郡Pontefract的 Kwong的公寓內被捕。一同被捕的還有當時在英國內政部擔任移民官的Trickett，以及Zhou和兩名前香港警察。這兩名警察飛往倫敦，就Kwong涉嫌詐騙一事進行對質。

法庭得悉，該集團假扮成前來修理保險絲的電工，試圖騙取Kwong的信任進入其家中。Trickett曾將瓶裝水倒在地板上，模擬水浸，試圖以此騙Kwong離開公寓，但最終失敗。

隨後，當該團夥之後闖入Kwong 的住所時，監聽他們的警察早已等候多時，準備將嫌疑人逮捕。

衛某，綽號“胖子”，否認自己多年來一直向中國當局提供情報。

他十幾歲時加入英國皇家海軍，擔任工程相關角色，之後被派往皇家海軍陸戰隊服役，最後加入皇家海軍警察部隊。他也是中國傳統武術舞獅的教練，他的舞獅隊曾在唐寧街10號表演。

他聲稱，他被指控洩露情報的聊天群組與他的舞獅師傅經營的一家公司有關，但只是在傳遞有關英國生活的訊息。檢控方給陪審團看到了袁和衛之間的訊息，又稱這些訊息顯示他們討論了針對活動人士的計劃，並將這些活動人士稱為「蟑螂」。

針對判決結果，內政部大臣Dan Jarvis表示：「這些人代表中國進行的活動侵犯了我們的主權，我們絕不容忍這種行為。

我們將繼續追究中國的責任，並就其危及我國人民安全的行為直接質疑中國。因此，外交部將召見中國大使，明確表示此類活動在英國領土上過去是、將來也永遠是不可接受的。 」

「此案證明了我們擁有強大的力量來保護我們免受外國敵對活動的侵害，這些判決應該發出一個明確的信息 - 任何企圖破壞我們安全的人都將承擔嚴重的後果」。

中國駐英國大使館發言人表示：“此案的事實清楚地表明，這完全是英方濫用法律、操縱司法程序的政治伎倆。其唯一目的就是鼓舞那些藏匿在英國、企圖破壞香港穩定的反華分子。”

So, a UK border force officer and a Hong Kong trade official based in London have been found guilty of spying for China and surveilling dissidents through a “shadow policing” operation. This case shows that the UK is quite serious about hostile activity carried out by foreign states. Apparently, China spies will be smarter next time.

兩名男子首次在英國史上被判為中國從事間諜活動（1/2）

 Recently The Guardian reported the following:

Two men first in British history to be found guilty of spying for China (1/2)

Chi Leung Wai and Chung Biu Yuen convicted over surveillance of dissidents in ‘shadow policing’ operation

The Guardian - Daniel Boffey, and Amy Hawkins in Beijing

Thu 7 May 2026 12.43 EDT

A UK Border Force officer and Hong Kong trade official based in London have been found guilty of spying for China and surveilling dissidents through a “shadow policing” operation.

Chi Leung “Peter” Wai, 38, and Chung Biu Yuen, 65, also known as Bill, were found guilty at the Old Bailey of assisting a foreign intelligence service, making them the first people in British history to be convicted of spying for China.

Wai, who worked for Border Force at Heathrow airport and volunteered as a City of London special constable, was also found guilty of misconduct in public office in relation to unauthorised searches of Home Office databases.

The two men, who had denied the charges, were found guilty by majority verdicts. Mrs Justice Cheema-Grubb will sentence the men, who are both dual Chinese and British nationals, at a later date.

Yuen, who was accused of giving Wai the targets to surveil, looked down as the verdict was heard. Wai stared ahead.

After 23 hours and 38 minutes of deliberation, jurors could not reach a verdict on charges against the men of foreign interference, a separate offence under the National Security Act. The prosecution said it would not seek a retrial.

A third accused man, 37-year-old former Royal Marine Matthew Trickett, who was charged under the National Security Act alongside Yuen and Wai in May 2024, was found dead in a park near his home in Maidenhead, Berkshire, a week after being bailed.

Prosecutors had asked the court to remand Trickett in custody for his own protection after he tried to take his own life in a police cell following his arrest. He told custody sergeants he would kill himself when he was released.

A nine-week trial heard that Wai gathered intelligence on the orders of Yuen, who was a senior manager at the Hong Kong Economic Trade Office (HKETO) in London, which was said to be an extension in the UK of the Hong Kong government.

The court heard that the targets included Nathan Law, an exiled politician who led the student protest movement in Hong Kong. Law was the subject of multiple spying operations and has had a £100,000 bounty put on his head by the Chinese authorities.

The jury was told that Wai infiltrated Hong Kong pro-democracy groups and sought to gather information on British politicians including the former Conservative cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith and the Labour peer Helena Kennedy.

(to be continued)

Translation

兩名男子首次在英國史上被判為中國從事間諜活動（1/2）

衛志樑和袁松彪因參與「影子警察」行動監視異見人士而被定罪

一名英國邊境部隊官員和一名常駐倫敦的香港貿易官員被判犯有為中國從事間諜活動並透過「影子警察」行動監視異見人士的罪行。

38歲的衛志樑（又稱 Peter）和65歲的袁松彪（又稱 Bill）在Old Bailey法院被判犯有協助外國情報機構的罪行，成為英國歷史上首批被判犯有為中國從事間諜活動罪的人。

曾在希斯路機場邊境部隊工作並擔任倫敦金融城特別警員的衛某，因擅自搜尋內政部資料庫而被判犯了公職人員行為不當罪。

兩名男子否認了所有指控，但最終被陪審團以多數票裁定有罪。法官Cheema-Grubb女仕將在稍後日期對這兩名擁有中英雙重國籍的男子進行量刑。

在宣判時，被控向衛某提供監視目標的袁某低下了頭。衛某則目視前方。

經過23小時38分鐘的審議，陪審團未能就兩名男子涉嫌干涉外國事務的指控達成一致意見，該指控是《國家安全法》下的另一項罪名。檢方表示不會尋求重審。

第三名被告，37歲的前皇家海軍陸戰隊員Matthew Trickett於2024年5月與袁和衛一同被控違反《國家安全法》。他在獲得保釋一週後，被發現死於伯克郡Maidenhead住所附近的一個公園。

Trickett被捕後曾在警局牢房內試圖自殺，檢控一方因此要求法庭將其拘留候審，以保護其人身安全。他曾告訴拘留他的警佐，稱他在不被拘留之時會自殺。

為期九週的庭審顯示，衛某奉袁某之命蒐集情報。袁某是香港駐倫敦經濟貿易辦事處（HKETO）的高級經理，該辦事處被認為是香港政府在英國的延伸機構。

法庭得悉，情報目標包括領導香港學生運動的流亡政治人物羅冠聰(Nathan Law)。羅冠聰曾多次遭到間諜活動監視，中國當局曾懸賞10萬英鎊捉拿他。

陪審團獲悉，衛某曾滲透香港民主派團體，試圖收集包括前保守黨內閣大臣 Iain Duncan Smith和工黨同僚Helena Kennedy在內的英國政界人士的情報。

（待續）

Iran Fired Ballistic Missiles at Joint US-UK Base in Indian Ocean, a US Bomber Launch Base: Target Missed

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

イラン、インド洋の米英共同基地へ弾道ミサイル発射も命中せず　米爆撃機の出撃拠点

2026.03.21 Sat posted at 16:40 JST

  （CNN） イランが20日午前、インド洋のディエゴガルシア島にある米英の共同軍事基地に向けて中距離弾道ミサイルを発射したことが分かった。米当局者が明らかにした。

当局者によると、イラン沿岸から約3810キロ離れた基地に向けてミサイル2発が発射されたが、いずれも命中しなかったという。

ディエゴガルシア島は米国の重爆撃機にとって重要な航空拠点で、長年にわたり、米本土から遠く離れた地域への作戦に不可欠な米軍の海外出撃拠点の役割を果たしてきた。

CNNはホワイトハウスや米国防総省、英国防省、ディエゴガルシアの基地を管轄地域に収める米インド太平洋軍にコメントを求めている。

ディエゴガルシア島はモーリシャスから北東1609キロあまりに位置する群島、チャゴス諸島の一部。英国は1814年、フランスの皇帝ナポレオンを撃退後、モーリシャスと合わせてチャゴス諸島を取得した。

モーリシャスは1968年に独立したが、チャゴス諸島は今も英国の支配下にある。

米国と英国は71年、この地域におけるソ連の軍事的影響力を抑える目的で、ディエゴガルシア島に大規模な基地を建設した。

ディエゴガルシア島はイラク侵攻に寄与したほか、アジア各地への任務に飛ぶ爆撃機の重要な着陸拠点として機能してきた。米国による身柄引き渡しとの関連も指摘される。

トランプ米大統領は今年、チャゴス諸島の主権をモーリシャスに引き渡す計画を巡り、英国を「愚かだ」と批判した。

英国は条約の条件に基づき、チャゴス諸島の主権をモーリシャスに移譲する方針。ディエゴガルシアにある基地については、英国が毎年1億3600万ドル（約216億円）をモーリシャスに支払って99年間租借する予定で、米英は引き続き施設を使用できる。

Translation

Iran Fired Ballistic Missiles at Joint US-UK Base in Indian Ocean, a US Bomber Launch Base: Target Missed

March 21, 2026 (Sat) Posted at 4:40 PM JST

(CNN) A US official confirmed that Iran had fired medium-range ballistic missiles at a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean on the morning of March 20.

According to the official, two missiles were fired at the base, located approximately 3,810 kilometers off the Iranian coast, but neither hit its target.

Diego Garcia Island is a crucial air base for US heavy bombers and has long served as an essential overseas launch base for US military operations far from the US mainland.

CNN had reached out for comment to the White House, the US Department of Defense, the UK Ministry of Defense, and also the US Indo-Pacific Command which oversaw the Diego Garcia base.

Diego Garcia was part of the Chagos Islands, an archipelago located approximately 1,609 kilometers northeast of Mauritius. Britain acquired the Chagos Islands, along with Mauritius, in 1814 after repelling Napoleon the French emperor.

Mauritius gained independence in 1968, but the Chagos Islands remained under British control.

In 1971, the United States and Britain constructed a large base on Diego Garcia with the aim of countering Soviet military influence in the region.

Diego Garcia played a role in the invasion of Iraq and had served as an important landing base for bombers flying to various parts of Asia. Its connection to the US extradition had also been suggested.

This year, US President Trump criticized Britain as "stupid" over its plan to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

Britain intended to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius based on the terms of the treaty. The base in Diego Garcia was to be leased by the UK for 99 years, with the UK paying Mauritius $136 million (approximately 21.6 billion yen) annually, allowing the US and UK to continue using the facilities.

So, Iran has fired two medium-range ballistic missiles at a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean located approximately 3,810 kilometers from the Iranian coast, but neither hit its target. Apparently, up to this moment, Iran is unable to fire the missiles accurately over such a long distance, and for sure the accuracy will be improved eventually.

消息人士稱，去獲取伊朗的高濃縮鈾需要美國投入大量地面部隊

Recently CNN.com reported the following:

Capturing Iran’s highly enriched uranium would require a large US ground force, sources say

CNN - By Natasha Bertrand, Zachary Cohen, Haley Britzky, Avery Schmitz

10 Mar 2026

Recovering Iran’s remaining highly enriched uranium stockpile believed to be sitting in a storage facility deep underground, an objective the Trump administration has been discussing, would require a significant number of US ground troops beyond a small special operations footprint, seven current and former officials familiar with the military planning told CNN.

The US bombing campaign that struck three Iranian nuclear facilities last June did not destroy all of that country’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, the material needed to create a nuclear weapon. Much of it is believed to be at Iran’s Isfahan nuclear site, said three of the sources. President Donald Trump has made complete elimination of Iran’s nuclear capability one of his stated aims of the war.

If the Trump administration went ahead with an operation to retrieve the uranium, it could mark the first major commitment of US ground forces as part of the campaign, an escalation that would put a large number of troops in harm’s way as part of a complex mission to move or render safe tons of highly radioactive material.

The uranium at Isfahan is accessible to the Iranians, who had been working for months after the US military strikes last year to clear the rubble of the facility’s aboveground structures and access the underground tunnels where the uranium was hidden, two of the sources said. UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday that around 200 kilograms of Iran’s highly enriched uranium is probably still at Isfahan, with some also at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.

Highly enriched uranium is a dual-use material, and Iran has said it produces it only for peaceful energy purposes. But enriching it above a certain threshold — around 90% —means it can be used to create nuclear weapons. Iran’s uranium is currently enriched at around 60%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The White House and Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment ahead of publication.

Trump has repeatedly said that Iran can never be allowed to have a nuclear weapons program. “One thing is certain: I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon,” he said last month.

‘The logistics and risk involved would be prohibitive’

US military airstrikes alone can’t penetrate the Isfahan tunnels, primarily because the facility does not have ventilation shaft openings like some of Iran’s other nuclear sites, which serve as weak points for a storage structure. That has led to discussions within the Trump administration about deploying elite units within the US military’s Joint Special Operations Command, potentially in coordination with Israeli commando forces, to physically infiltrate the tunnels and secure or destroy the enriched uranium, the sources said.

A mission like that, however, would require dozens if not hundreds of additional troops on the ground to help support the core special operations team tasked with finding the uranium, the sources said, particularly given the Iranian military’s continued control over the sites and surrounding area. That support could entail not just troops to secure the area, but also logistical support given the challenges of working with nuclear material deep underground.

Delta Force and Seal Team 6 operators receive training in countering weapons of mass destruction, and US Special Operations Command has been the lead group for the Pentagon’s counter-WMD mission for nearly a decade. Several elements of the US government also have teams that are designated “render safe units” that can handle radiological material, one of the sources said. JSOC also has contingency plans to either “render safe” the material underground and/or render the facility unusable.

One retired special forces officer not involved in the planning told CNN that in their experience, a mission like this would probably require a tier one special operations unit; specialized explosive ordnance disposal personnel attached to that team; outer security which could be either the 75th Ranger Regiment or the 82nd Airborne Division depending on how large the area is and how many people are needed; exfiltration and infiltration assets like MC-130J aircraft or MH-47 Chinook helicopters; and consistent air cover overhead throughout the mission.

“The logistics and risk involved would be prohibitive, to say the least,” said one person familiar with the discussions.

In a sign that the US could be keeping its options open, at least six MC-130Js are now flying out of RAF Mildenhall in the United Kingdom, according to flight data and satellite imagery reviewed by CNN, positioning them closer to Iran if called upon.

These variants of the C-130 cargo plane are specially equipped to support covert infiltration and exfiltration of US commandos into hostile environments.

A satellite image captured over the airbase on March 5 appears to show several MC-130Js parked on the tarmac.

Three of the six aircraft identified are newly arrived to RAF Mildenhall, having flown in from across Europe in recent weeks. Three others have been based out of RAF Mildenhall for months.

The same dataset suggests nearly every aircraft has participated in training missions over the United Kingdom and North Sea in recent weeks.

The Iranian regime, meanwhile, is proving resilient in the face of relentless US-Israeli airstrikes. Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has been installed as Iran’s new ayatollah — a signal that Iran’s leadership has no intention of folding to American pressure.

Without the outright collapse of the regime, some level of diplomatic engagement rather than just sheer military power will likely be required to eliminate Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, multiple sources said.

Translation

消息人士稱，去獲取伊朗的高濃縮鈾需要美國投入大量地面部隊

根據七位熟悉軍事計劃的現任和前任官員向 CNN 透露，特朗普政府一直在討論獲取相信存放在地下深處的儲存設施中的伊朗剩餘高濃縮鈾庫存，但這需要投入大量美國地面部隊，遠非小型特種作戰部隊所能及。

去年六月，美國對伊朗三處核設施的轟炸並未摧毀該國全部的高濃縮鈾庫存，而這些高濃縮鈾是製造核武所需的材料。三位消息人士稱，據信其中大部分仍存放在伊朗伊斯法罕(Isfahan) 核設施。特朗普總統已將徹底消除伊朗的核能力列為此次戰爭的設定目標之一。

如特朗普政府真的啟動奪取鈾的行動，這可能標誌著美國地面部隊會首次大規模參與這項行動，事態升級意味著大量士兵將身陷險境，執行一項複雜的任務，即轉移或安全處置數噸高放射性物質。 

兩名消息人士稱，伊朗方面可以接觸到伊斯法罕的鈾。在去年美軍空襲之後，伊朗方面已經進行了數月的清理工作，以清除該設施地上建築的廢墟，並進入藏匿鈾的地下隧道。聯合國核子監督機構負責人拉斐爾·格羅西(Rafael Grossi)周一表示，伊朗約有200公斤高濃縮鈾可能仍在伊斯法罕，部分可能也藏在伊朗納坦茲(Natanz)核設施。

高濃縮鈾是一種兩用材料，伊朗方面表示，其生產高濃縮鈾僅用於和平能源用途。但將鈾濃縮至一定門檻以上 - 大約90% - 就意味著它可以用來製造核武。據國際原子能總署稱，伊朗目前的鈾濃縮度約為60%。

白宮和五角大廈在本文發表前未有回應置評請求。

特朗普曾多次表示，絕不允許伊朗計劃去擁有核武。他上個月說：“有一點是肯定的：我絕對不會允許這個世界頭號恐怖主義贊助者 - 無疑他們是 - 擁有核武器。”

“所涉及的後勤和風險將令人望而卻步”

僅靠美軍空襲無法突破伊斯法罕的地道，主要原因是該設施不像伊朗其他一些核設施那樣設有通風井口，而通風井口是儲存結構的弱點。消息人士稱，這引發了特朗普政府內部關於部署美軍聯合特種作戰司令部精銳部隊的討論，可能與以色列特種部隊協調行動，以滲透隧道並獲取或銷毀濃縮鈾。

消息人士還表示，鑑於伊朗軍方持續控制這些地點及其周邊地區，此類任務需要數十甚至數百名地面增援部隊來支援負責搜尋鈾的核心特種作戰小組。這種支援不僅包括確保區域安全的部隊，還包括後勤保護，因為在地下深處處理核子材料極具挑戰性。

三角洲部隊和海豹突擊隊第六分隊的隊員接受過應對大規模殺傷性武器的訓練，而美國特種作戰司令部近十年來一直是五角大廈反大規模殺傷性武器任務的領導單位。其中一位消息人士稱，美國政府的多個部門也設有專門處理放射性物質的「安全處置小組」。聯合特種作戰司令部（JSOC）也制定了應急計劃，以令到藏於地下物質「安全化」，及/或使該設施無法再被使用。

一位未參與計劃制定的退役特種部隊軍官告訴CNN，根據他們的經驗，此類任務可能需要一支一級特種作戰部隊；一支配備專業爆炸物處理人員的隊伍；外圍安保力量，根據區域大小和所需人員數量去出動第75遊騎兵團或第82空降師；撤離和滲透裝備，如 MC-130J 飛機或 MH-47 Chinook直升機；以及在整個任務期間持續的空中掩護。

一位熟悉討論內容的人士稱：“毫不誇張地說，其中涉及的後勤保障和風險是難以承受的。”

CNN查閱的飛行數據和衛星圖像顯示，至少有六架MC-130J運輸機目前正從英國米爾登霍爾 (Mildenhall)皇家空軍基地起飛，在需要部署時可以更能靠近伊朗的位置，這表明美國可能仍在保留各種選項。

這些C-130運輸機的衍生機種都經過特殊改裝，能夠支援美國特種部隊秘密滲透至敵對環境和撤離。

3月5日拍攝的一張空軍基地衛星影像顯示，數架MC-130J飛機停放在停機坪上。

已識別的六架飛機中有三架是最近幾週從歐洲各地飛往米爾登霍爾皇家空軍基地的。另外三架已在米爾登霍爾皇家空軍基地駐紮數月。

同一資料集顯示，幾乎所有飛機最近幾週都參與了在英國和北海上空的訓練任務。

同時，伊朗政權面對美以持續不斷的空襲時，展現了強大的韌性。前最高領袖哈梅內伊的次子穆傑塔巴·哈梅內伊(Mojtaba Khamenei)已被任命為伊朗新任最高領袖 - 這表明伊朗領導層無意屈服於美國的壓力。

多位消息人士稱，在伊朗政權徹底崩潰之前，要摧毀伊朗的濃縮鈾庫存，可能需要採取一定程度的外交手段，而不僅僅是依靠軍事力量。

So, the US bombing campaign that struck three Iranian nuclear facilities last June had not destroyed all the enriched uranium stockpile. That has led to discussions within the Trump administration about deploying US elite units, potentially in coordination with Israeli commando forces, to physically infiltrate the tunnels and secure or destroy the enriched uranium. A mission like that, however, would require dozens if not hundreds of additional troops to operate at a location controlled by the Iranian military. It seems that without a regime change in Iran, diplomatic engagement will likely be required to eliminate Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Apparent, Trump has not yet finished his job and let’s wait and see what Trump will do next.

「六十秒，就這麼簡單」：以色列與美國合作的精準行動刺殺哈梅內伊（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

‘Sixty seconds, that’s all it took’: the clinical Israeli-US operation to kill Ali Khamenei (2/2)

Mission that took just one minute to carry out was decades in making, but experts say it could be major strategic error

 US-Israel war on Iran – live updates

The Guardian - Jason Burke in Jerusalem

Sun 1 Mar 2026 14.27 EST

(continue)

The Mossad, an abbreviation of the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations in Hebrew, has been focused on Iran for decades, and has built deep networks of informants, agents and logistics there. This has allowed a series of operations including the assassination with a remote-controlled automatic machine gun of a top Iranian nuclear scientist travelling at speed in a car on a remote road, the infection with malware of computers running key parts of Iran’s nuclear programme and the theft of an archive of nuclear documents. The political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in 2024 with a bomb placed in his favorite room in a government guesthouse in Tehran.

During the 12-day war in June, Israeli agents managed to identify the homes of Iranian nuclear scientists, intelligence officials and military commanders – information that allowed dozens to be killed in a first wave of surprise attacks.

Melman said the Mossad had made a key change of strategy almost 20 years ago, deciding to recruit local agents within Iran who were given state-of-the-art equipment and high levels of training.

David Barnea, who has led the Mossad since 2021, built a special department for a “foreign legion” of agents who have been deployed across the Middle East on sensitive missions.

Such agents were easier to recruit in Iran, where many people were opposed to the ruling regime, than elsewhere, Melman said.

Israel was poised to assassinate Khamenei last year, but Trump was reluctant to risk regional escalation and the reaction of allies concerned by the killing of a head of state. Such reservations appear to have disappeared in the months since the brief conflict last year, which ended shortly after US bombers attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.

Israeli military officials said there had since been “really very enhanced cooperation” between Israel and the US on Iran.

The flow of information from the Mossad’s networks on the ground in Iran would have been merged last week with intelligence gathered through communications intercepted by the US.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if they locked on to a variety of means to track [Khamenei],” said Gerecht. “The Iranians are pretty sloppy. They love their phones. So maybe the supreme leader had a stack of burner phones but it’s about people he was calling regularly.”

Finally, information would have been fed through to the US and Israeli militaries to allow precise targeting information to be compiled and the orders to be given for that brief but deadly and destructive minute.

“Sixty seconds. That’s all it took for this operation, but it is the product of years in the making,” said Oded Ailam, a former head of the Mossad’s counter-terrorism division and a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. “The modern battlefield is no longer defined only by tanks and aircraft. It is defined by data, access, trust and timing. One minute can change a region.”

The CIA veteran said they believed the assassination was a mistake: “I think it was the wrong thing to do. Not from an ethical perspective – I have been fine with killing people, a lot of them in fact – but from a long-term strategic perspective.

“I know that when you take out someone’s leader you don’t solve the problem. You just create a new one.”

Translation

「六十秒，就這麼簡單」：以色列與美國合作的精準行動刺殺哈梅內伊（2/2）

這項僅用一分鐘就完成的任務，籌劃了數十年，但專家表示，這可能是個重大的策略失誤。

（繼續）

摩薩德(Mossad) ，即希伯來語「情報與特種作戰研究所」的縮寫，數十年來一直將目光聚焦在伊朗，並在伊朗建立了龐大的線人、特工和後勤網絡。這使得摩薩德得以實施一系列行動，包括用遙控自動機槍暗殺一名在偏僻道路上高速行駛的伊朗頂級核科學家、用惡意軟體感染運行伊朗核計劃關鍵部分的計算機，以及竊取一份核文件檔案。哈馬斯政治領袖伊斯梅爾·哈尼亞(Ismail Haniyeh)於2024年在德黑蘭一家政府招待所內他最喜歡的房間裡被炸彈暗殺。

在6月份為期12天的戰爭中，以色列特工成功鎖定了伊朗核科學家、情報官員和軍事指揮官的住所 - 這項訊息使以色列得以在第一波突襲中殺死數十人。

Melman表示，摩薩德在近20年前做出了關鍵戰略調整，決定在伊朗境內招募本地特工，並為他們配備最先進的裝備和高水準的訓練。

自2021年起擔任摩薩德局長的David Barnea建立了一個專門負責「外籍軍團」特工的部門，這些特工已被部署到中東各地執行敏感任務。

Melman說，在伊朗招募這類特工比在其他地方更容易，因為伊朗國內許多人反對執政政權。

去年，以色列曾準備暗殺哈梅內伊，但特朗普不願冒著地區局勢升級的風險，也不願承受盟友對暗殺國家元首的擔憂。自去年短暫衝突結束以來，這種顧慮似乎已經消失。那場衝突在美國轟炸機攻擊伊朗核設施後不久便結束。

以色列軍方官員表示，此後以色列和美國在伊朗問題上的合作「確實得到了極大的加強」。

上週，來自摩薩德在伊朗地面網路的資訊流與美國截獲的通訊情報進行了整合。

Gerecht說: 「如果他們利用各種手段追蹤[哈梅內伊]，我不會感到驚訝」; 「伊朗人做事相當馬虎。他們很喜歡用手機。所以，最高領袖可能有一堆一次性手機，但關鍵在於他經常聯繫的人」。

最終，相關訊息會傳遞給美國和以色列軍方，以編纂精確的目標資訊，並下達命令，執行那短暫但致命且具毀滅性的一分鐘打擊。

前摩薩德反恐部門負責人、耶路撒冷安全與外交事務中心研究員Oded Ailam說道: 「僅僅60秒。這次行動只花了這麼短的時間，但它卻是多年籌備的結果」;「現代戰場不再僅僅由坦克和飛機定義，它由數據、資訊獲取管道、信任和時機所決定。一分鐘就能改變一個地區」。

這位中情局老兵表示，他認為這次暗殺是個錯誤：「我認為這是錯的。不是從道德角度出發 - 我並不反對殺人，事實上，我殺過很多人 - 而是從長遠的戰略角度來看」。

“我知道，除掉一個領導人並不能解決問題，只會製造新的問題。”

              So, the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the culmination of decades of painstaking intelligence gathering by Israeli secret services. One objective of the attack by Israel and the US is to motivate a regime change in Tehran, another objective is to stop Iran to build its nuclear arsenal. While it is quite likely that when you take out someone’s leader you don’t solve the problem as it may just create a new one, the concrete immediate benefit of this attack is that Iran will need some time to restart its nucleus program. Apparent, this attack shows that the 21^st century battlefield is less defined by tanks and aircraft and more by missiles, drones, and all kinds of intelligence works plus data analysis and good timing. 

儘管特朗普發表了格陵蘭相關言論，但中國和俄羅斯並未對它有威脅（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Despite Trump’s Words, China and Russia Are Not Threatening Greenland (2/2)

U.S. and European officials say they are unaware of any intelligence that shows China and Russia are endangering the island, which is protected by the NATO security umbrella.

By Edward Wong - Edward Wong reports from Washington on U.S. foreign policy and is a former Beijing bureau chief for The Times who has a written a book about China.

Jan. 24, 2026

Updated 8:19 a.m. ET

(continue)

China and Russia collect some intelligence near Greenland and in the Arctic that is focused mostly on activities at the U.S. military’s Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, an American official said. And Russian submarines and other military assets have sailed near Greenland. But neither country has threatened Greenland’s sovereignty or security, said that official and another U.S. official.

Former U.S. officials said that during the Biden administration, there were no major intelligence reports about Russian or Chinese activities near Greenland. And Western intelligence officials said no significant activity was reported in the past year.

Mr. Culver said China is not an Arctic power yet in any real sense. And in any case, China does not need Greenland or to get close to the American mainland to launch nuclear warheads at the continental United States. The same goes for Russia.

In 2020, China’s first domestic-built icebreaker, the Snow Dragon Two, completed an Arctic expedition. (The original Snow Dragon was built in Ukraine during the Soviet era.) China now has a handful of icebreakers, but commercial Chinese vessels going through the region rely on Russian icebreakers and Russian outposts.

What China wants is to have certain rights in the Arctic, including ones related to navigation, natural resource extraction and environmental management, Mr. Culver said. Discussions about those issues often take place at meetings of the Arctic Council, a multilateral organization established in 1996 whose eight full members include the United States and Russia. China has observer status.

Some former U.S. officials said they were concerned about the strains that Mr. Trump’s push to control Greenland was putting on relations between the United States and its European allies, and how the tensions weakened the ability of those nations to challenge or deter Chinese or Russian ambitions across the globe.

“We already have de facto control in Greenland,” said Rush Doshi, a former China director on the Biden White House’s National Security Council. “The marginal increase in control we might get from taking the territory threatens to blow up our relations with important allies and partners.”

Those relations are needed for the United States and its allies to work together to re-industrialize at scale in order to compete with China, he added.

Mr. Doshi said China does seek to make commercial inroads in the Arctic, but the United States can address those in talks with allies and partners. And any Arctic challenge from China, he said, is “less significant than the Soviet threat during the Cold War. And even during the Cold War, we didn’t militarily seize Greenland. If we didn’t seize it then, what’s the reason to seize it now?”

Mr. Trump has mentioned that Greenland has critical minerals, which are important for civilian and military uses. Last year, Chinese leaders threatened to impose bans on exports of its processed rare earths and critical minerals to the United States, which compelled Mr. Trump to back down from his trade war with China.

Mr. Trump has said that having access to the raw minerals is not the main issue for the United States, but rather having the ability to process and refine them. China has a global monopoly on that production, and U.S. territorial control of Greenland would not change that.

As for Russia, it has been an Arctic power since the Cold War, but it does not pose an immediate threat to Greenland, said Fiona Hill, a senior director for Russian and European affairs in the first Trump administration.

“Trump has become obsessed with owning it,” she said. “He wants the greatest land deal in history — that’s the context.”

During the first Trump term, a billionaire friend of the president, Ronald S. Lauder, mentioned to Mr. Trump the idea of acquiring Greenland, and from then on Mr. Trump became fixated on the territory, Ms. Hill said, confirming earlier reports. Ms. Hill said she and other White House officials began working on a memo with legally viable proposals, including basing more troops on the island.

Mr. Trump’s statements in interviews about his personal desire to acquire Greenland underscore the idea that the concern over security appears to be a pretext. It is similar to how he cited drug smuggling from Venezuela last fall as the rationale for his renewed aggression against that country when the actual core reason turned out to be his drive for its oil.

Speaking about Greenland, Mr. Trump said in a Times interview this month that taking it was “psychologically important for me.” And in 2021, he told the authors of the book “The Divider” that he needed to acquire the island because it was “massive.”

Mr. Doshi said, “Is this really about China and Russia, or is the discussion of China and Russia masking the reality of what is behind the drive for Greenland, which is an imperial project based on vanity?”

Translation

儘管特朗普發表了格陵蘭相關言論，但中國和俄羅斯並未對它有威脅（2/2）

美國和歐洲官員表示，他們沒有收到任何情報顯示中國和俄羅斯正在危及受北約安全保護的格陵蘭島。

（繼續）

一位美國官員表示，中國和俄羅斯在格陵蘭島附近和北極地區收集了一些情報，主要集中在美國位於格陵蘭島的Pituffik太空基地的活動上。俄羅斯潛艇和其他軍事力量也曾在格陵蘭島附近航行。但這位官員和另一位美國官員都表示，這兩個國家都沒有威脅格陵蘭島的主權或安全。

在拜登政府執政期間的美國前官員表示，沒有俄羅斯或中國在格陵蘭島附近活動的重要情報報告。西方情報官員也表示，過去一年沒有收到任何重大活動報告。

Culver說，中國目前還遠遠未達到任何在意義上的北極強國地位。而且，中國並不需要格陵蘭島，也不需要靠近美國本土就能向美國本土發射核彈頭。俄羅斯的情況也是一樣。

2020年，中國首艘國產破冰船「雪龍二號」完成了一次北極探險。 （最初的「雪龍號」是在蘇聯時期於烏克蘭建造的。）中國目前擁有少量破冰船，但途經該地區的中國商船仍然依賴俄羅斯的破冰船和俄羅斯的前哨站。

Culver說，中國想要的是在北極地區擁有某些權利，包括與航行、自然資源開採和環境管理相關的權利。關於這些問題的討論經常在北極理事會 (Arctic Council) 的會議上進行。北極理事會是一個成立於1996年的多邊組織，其八個正式成員包括美國和俄羅斯。中國是觀察員國。

一些美國前官員表示，他們擔心特朗普試圖控制格陵蘭島的舉動會給美國與其歐洲盟友之間的關係帶來緊張，並削弱這些國家在全球範圍內挑戰或遏制中國或俄羅斯野心的能力。

拜登政府國家安全委員會前中國事務主任Rush Doshi表示: “我們已經對格陵蘭島擁有實質上的控制權”，“我們通過佔領該領土可能獲得微小的控制權增長，卻有可能破壞我們與重要盟友和夥伴的關係。”

他還補充說，這些關係對於美國及其盟友攜手合作，大規模實現再工業化，從而與中國競爭至關重要。

Doshi表示，中國確實尋求在北極地區拓展商業版圖，但美國可以透過與盟友和夥伴的談判來應對這些問題。他還說，來自中國的任何北極挑戰都 “遠不及冷戰時期蘇聯的威脅。即使在冷戰時期，我們也沒有武力佔領格陵蘭島。既然當時我們沒有佔領它，現在又有什麼理由要佔領它呢？”

特朗普曾提到，格陵蘭島擁有重要的礦產資源，這些礦產對民用和軍事用途都至關重要。去年，中國領導人威脅要禁止向美國出口其加工後的稀土和其他重要礦產，這迫使特朗普在對華貿易戰中退縮。

特朗普表示，對美國而言，取得這些原料並非主要問題，關鍵在於能否加工和提煉它們。中國在全球礦產生產領域擁有壟斷地位，美國對格陵蘭島的領土控制並不會改變這一現狀。

俄羅斯自冷戰以來一直是北極強國。曾任特朗普第一任期內負責俄羅斯和歐洲事務的高級主管Fiona Hill表示，但它對格陵蘭島並不構成即時威脅。

她說:“特朗普對擁有格陵蘭島這件事已經到了痴迷的地步”，“他想要達成史上最大的土地交易  - 這就是事情的來龍去脈。”

Hill證實了先前的報道，稱在特朗普第一任期內，他的億萬富翁朋友Ronald S. Lauder曾向特朗普提及收購格陵蘭島的想法，此後特朗普便對這片領土念念不忘。Hill表示，她和其他白宮官員開始著手起草一份備忘錄，其中包含一些在法律上可行的方案，包括在島上增派軍隊。

特朗普在訪談中表達出對收購格陵蘭島的個人願望，凸顯了對安全問題的擔憂似乎只是一個藉口。這與他去年秋天以委內瑞拉毒品走私為由，重新對該國採取侵略行動的做法如出一轍，其真正的核心原因是為了攫取委內瑞拉的石油。

本月，特朗普在接受《紐約時報》採訪時談到格陵蘭島，他說取得它「對我的心理意義重大」。 2021年，他在《分割者》(The Divider) 一書中告訴作者，他需要獲得這座島嶼，因為它「巨大」。

Doshi說： “這真的與中國和俄羅斯有關嗎？還是去提及中國和俄羅斯只不過是去掩蓋爭奪格陵蘭島背後的真正目的 - 一個基於虛榮心的帝國主義項目？”

              So, some insiders in the US have pointed that there is no current military threat from Russia or China to Greenland. Denmark has made clear that if the US wants to expand military access or greater cooperation on critical minerals in Greenland, they’re open to it. Apparently, Trump has failed to realize that to create chaos with its allies would weaken America’s ability to meet real global threats. I tend to believe that the reality behind Trump’s drive for Greenland is a personal imperial project based on vanity.

儘管特朗普發表了格陵蘭相關言論，但中國和俄羅斯並未對它有威脅（1/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Despite Trump’s Words, China and Russia Are Not Threatening Greenland (1/2)

U.S. and European officials say they are unaware of any intelligence that shows China and Russia are endangering the island, which is protected by the NATO security umbrella.

By Edward Wong - Edward Wong reports from Washington on U.S. foreign policy and is a former Beijing bureau chief for The Times who has a written a book about China.

Jan. 24, 2026

Updated 8:19 a.m. ET

Fourteen years ago, a Chinese icebreaker called the Snow Dragon made a long and surprising voyage.

Over three months in the summer, the scientific research vessel crossed from the Pacific to the Atlantic, traversing nearly 5,400 nautical miles of the Arctic Ocean, a first for China. The crew discovered that melting ice meant the ship could travel through the remote region without great difficulty, the expedition leader told reporters after docking in Iceland.

“To our astonishment,” said the leader, Huigen Yang, “most part of the Northern Sea Route is open.”

American and European officials took notice at the time and began keeping a close watch on China’s moves in the Arctic.

But while China has talked about expanding trade and access to shipping lanes and natural resources in the Arctic, it has developed only a small footprint there over the years. And even as China and Russia compete with the United States in many parts of the world, they do not present a threat to American interests in or near Greenland, say experts on those two superpowers and current and former U.S. officials, including intelligence analysts.

Those findings contrast sharply with assertions by President Trump, who has repeatedly cited security as the reason he wants to acquire Greenland. In a speech on Wednesday at an annual forum in Davos, Switzerland, he said Greenland was an “enormous, unsecured island” that was a “core national security interest of the United States of America.”

“It’s been our policy for hundreds of years to prevent outside threats from entering our hemisphere, and we’ve done it very successfully,” he added.

At a meeting on Jan. 14 in Washington, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio asked the Danish foreign minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, and the foreign minister of Greenland, Vivian Motzfeldt, whether Denmark had the resources to protect Greenland against any potential future threat from China, Mr. Rasmussen said in an interview.

However, Mr. Trump and his aides have not presented any intelligence that points to Chinese threats to Greenland.

China has increased its collaboration with Russia on maritime patrols and long-range bomber patrols in the vast Arctic region, said Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, the top NATO commander in Europe. But allied officials say there is no looming threat, and in any case Greenland falls under the NATO security umbrella.

If any problems were to emerge, the United States could expand its military presence in Greenland under a 1951 U.S.-Denmark pact. Denmark, which has sovereignty over the autonomous island, has said it would welcome more American troops. The United States had about 10,000 troops in Greenland during the Cold War, 50 times more than the 200 there now.

Although China does have a long-term goal of projecting naval power globally, it is focused on building up its military for deployment mainly in the Asia-Pacific region, where it is vying with the United States for dominance.

“Regarding China, there’s no military activity near Greenland,” said John Culver, a former intelligence analyst on China who briefed Mr. Trump in his first term. “If this administration had any intel about actual threats, it would be leaked.”

“I’ve never read anything that shows China has military designs on Greenland,” he added.

Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat who receives regular briefings from U.S. intelligence officials, expressed a similar view.

“Let me be clear: As vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, I’m closely tracking the facts, and there is no current military threat from Russia or China to Greenland,” he said on Thursday in a statement to The New York Times. “The only immediate threat right now is from the United States, with talk of taking territory from one of our closest allies.”

“Denmark has been clear: If we want expanded military access or greater cooperation on critical minerals, they’re open to it, but it must be done in partnership, not through intimidation and saber rattling,” Mr. Warner added. “When we create chaos with our allies, we weaken America’s ability to meet real global threats and make ourselves less safe.”

(to be continued)

Translation

儘管特朗普發表了格陵蘭相關言論，但中國和俄羅斯並未對它有威脅（1/2）

美國和歐洲官員表示，他們沒有收到任何情報顯示中國和俄羅斯正在危害這座受北約安全保護的島嶼

十四年前，一艘名為「雪龍號」的中國破冰船完成了一次漫長而令人驚訝的航行。

在夏季的三個月多時間裡，這艘科考船從太平洋橫渡到大西洋，航行了近5400海裡，穿越了北冰洋，這在當時是中國的首次航行。探險隊長在冰島靠岸後告訴記者，船員發現，冰層的融化意味著這艘船可以毫不費力地穿越這片偏遠地區。

領導人Huigen Yang說道:“令我們驚訝的是”，“北方航道的大部分路段都已可通行。”

當時，美國和歐洲官員注意到了這一點，並開始密切關注中國在北極的動向。

但儘管中國一直聲稱要擴大北極地區的貿易，並獲取航道和自然資源，但多年來，中國在北極的實際存在卻微乎其微。專家們，包括情報分析人士在內的現任和前任美國官員表示，即使中國和俄羅斯在世界許多地區與美國競爭，它們也不會對美國在格陵蘭島及其周邊地區的利益構成威脅。

這些結論與特朗普總統的說法截然相反。特朗普曾多次以安全為由，聲稱他想獲得格陵蘭島。在周三於瑞士達沃斯舉行的年度論壇上，他發表講話稱格陵蘭島是一個“巨大的、不安全的島嶼”，是“美國的核心國家安全利益”。

他補充道:「數百年來，我們的政策一直是阻止外部威脅進入西半球，而且我們在這方面做得非常成功」。

丹麥外交大臣Lars Lokke Rasmussen在接受在一個採訪時曾表示，1月14日在華盛頓舉行的一次會議上，副總統萬斯和國務卿盧比奧詢問Rasmussen和格陵蘭外交大臣Vivian Motzfeldt，丹麥是否有資源保護格陵蘭免受來自中國的任何潛在威脅。

然而，特朗普及其助手並未提供任何情報顯示中國對格陵蘭構成威脅。

北約歐洲最高指揮官Alexus G. Grynkewich將軍表示，中國加強了與俄羅斯在廣大的北極地區海上巡邏和遠程轟炸機巡邏的合作。但盟國官員表示，目前不存在迫在眉睫的威脅，而且格陵蘭無論如何都處於北約的安全保護傘之下。

如果出現任何問題，美國可以根據1951年美丹條約擴大在格陵蘭的軍事存在。丹麥對這座自治島嶼擁有主權，並表示歡迎更多美軍駐紮。冷戰期間，美國在格陵蘭駐紮了約1萬名士兵，是目前駐紮在那裡的200人的50倍。

儘管中國確實有在全球範圍內投射海軍力量的長期目標，但它目前專注於增強軍事實力，主要部署在亞太地區，與美國爭奪該地區的主導地位。

曾擔任中國問題情報分析師並在特朗普第一任期內向其匯報的John Culver說道: 「關於中國，它在格陵蘭附近沒有任何軍事活動」; 「如果本屆政府掌握任何關於實際威脅的情報，是會洩露出去了」。

他補充道:「我從未讀到任何表明中國對格陵蘭島有軍事野心的資料」。

維珍尼亞州民主黨參議員Mark Warner定期聽取美國情報官員的簡報，他也表達了類似的觀點。

他週四在給《紐約時報》的聲明中表示:「我要明確指出：作為參議院情報委員會副主席，我密切關注著事實，目前俄羅斯或中國對格陵蘭島沒有構成任何軍事威脅」; 「目前唯一迫在眉睫的威脅來自美國，他們揚言要從我們最親密的盟友之一手中奪取領土」。

Warner 補充道: 「丹麥已經明確表示：如果我們想要擴大軍事准入或在關鍵礦產方面加強合作，他們持開放態度，但這必須透過夥伴關係來實現，而不是透過恐嚇和武力威脅」; 「當我們與盟友製造混亂時，這削弱了美國應對真正全球威脅的能力，也讓我們自身變得更加不安全」。

（待續）

儘管多年戰爭，美國和歐洲仍在與俄羅斯進行着價值數十億美元的貿易往來 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The US and Europe are still doing billions of dollars’ worth of business with Russia despite years of war (2/2)

Lauren Kent, CNN

Thu, August 14, 2025 at 5:03 a.m. PDT 8 min read

(continue)

European trade with Russia:

• Oil: Russia was the largest supplier of petroleum to the European Union prior to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The EU has since imposed a ban on maritime Russian oil imports, as well as refined oil products, like diesel. As a result, oil imports to Europe fell to $1.72 billion (1.48 billion euros) for the first quarter of 2025, down from $16.4 billion (14.06 billion euros) in the same quarter of 2021, according to the most recent data from Eurostat.

The top European importers of Russian fossil fuels in July 2025 were Hungary, France, Slovakia, Belgium and Spain, according to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, an international research organization. Hungary and Slovakia accounted for the vast majority of crude oil imports, according to the analysis, while the others import mostly liquefied natural gas.

• Natural gas: The value of natural gas imports from Russia actually increased in the last four years as a result of price increases, growing to $5.23 billion (4.49 billion euros) in the first quarter of 2025, Eurostat data shows. However, the EU has slightly reduced Russia’s market share of liquefied natural gas imports since 2021 – from 22% down to 19% in 2025 – while also greatly increasing the US market share.

• Iron and steel: Russia’s share of iron and steel imports in the EU has dropped sharply. Iron and steel imports amounted to $850 million (730 million euros) in the first quarter of 2025 – about half of what they were in the same quarter in 2021, according to Eurostat.

• Fertilizer: Sanctions and import duties have not hit the fertilizer industry, and as a result, European imports of Russian fertilizer have changed very little since 2021. In the first quarter of 2025, EU countries imported $640 million (550 million euros) of Russian fertilizer, data shows.

• Nickel: The EU has diversified imports to rely more on nickel from the United States, Norway, the United Kingdom and Canada. Still, the bloc imported $300 million (260 million euros) worth of nickel from Russia in the first quarter of 2025. Nickel is primarily used to make stainless steel and other alloy steels, as well as batteries.

 

Hundreds of Western firms still in Russia

Beyond imports and exports of commodities, many Western companies remain entrenched in Russia.

Some notable American-based holdouts continue to operate in Russia, including top 100 companies, according to lists compiled by the Yale School of Management and the Kyiv School of Economics Institute.

Dozens of European businesses, including consumer-facing brands, retailers and software companies, have also remained in Russia.

The amount of tax revenue that Western companies generate for the Kremlin is relatively small, but analysts say the companies that remain have allowed aspects of normal life to continue for the Russian population.

Corporate exits serve to bring the war closer to the Russian people and confront their “complacency,” as well as make it more difficult for Putin to paint a picture of a well-functioning economy, said Yale School of Management’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, whose large team of researchers keeps track of which companies have left.

“It’s an imploding market – it was never an economic superpower to start with – which is just a lot of smoke and mirrors, a lot of bravado on the part of Putin to try to create an aura of something bigger,” Sonnenfeld told CNN.

 

India’s and China’s energy imports

In contrast to the reduction in trade with Moscow seen in the United States and EU, India imported $67 billion worth of goods from Russia in 2024, according to data aggregated by the United Nations. Roughly $53 billion worth of that was petroleum oils and crude oil.

Before the full-scale war, in 2021, India imported $8.7 billion worth of goods from Russia.

India’s imports of Russian oil and gas have skyrocketed since before the war began. Russian oil now makes up 36% of the Indian market, according to Vortexa, an energy data firm, meaning it imports more crude oil from Russia than from anywhere else.

China has also ramped up purchases of Russian crude oil following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Its price fell after Western countries sharply scaled back their imports of Russian fuel. Russia now accounts for 13.5% of China’s crude imports, according to Vortexa.

China imported roughly $130 billion in Russian goods in 2024, including $62.6 billion of petroleum oils and crude, the UN-aggregated data shows.

Translation

儘管多年戰爭，美國和歐洲仍在與俄羅斯進行着價值數十億美元的貿易往來 (2/2)

歐洲與俄羅斯的貿易：

• 石油：在莫斯科全面入侵烏克蘭之前，俄羅斯是歐盟最大的石油供應國。此後，歐盟對俄羅斯海上石油以及柴油等精煉石油產品實施了進口禁令。因此，根據歐盟統計局的最新數據，2025年第一季度，歐洲的石油進口額從2021年同期的164億美元（140.6億歐元）降至17.2億美元（14.8億歐元）。

根據國際研究機構能源與清潔空氣研究中心的分析，2025年7月，歐洲進口俄羅斯化石燃料的主要國家為匈牙利、法國、斯洛伐克、比利時和西班牙。分析又顯示，匈牙利和斯洛伐克佔了原油進口的絕大部分，其他國家則主要進口液化天然氣。

• 天然氣：歐盟統計局的數據顯示，由於價格上漲，過去四年從俄羅斯進口的天然氣價值實際上有所增加，到2025年第一季增長至52.3億美元（44.9億歐元）。然而，自2021年以來，歐盟略微降低了俄羅斯在液化天然氣進口市場的份額，從22%降至2025年的19%，同時大幅增加了美國的進口份額。

•鐵和鋼：俄羅斯在歐盟進口鋼鐵的份額急劇下降。根據歐盟統計局的數據，2025年第一季，鋼鐵進口額為8.5億美元（7.3億歐元），約2021年同季的一半。

• 化肥：制裁和進口關稅並未對化肥產業造成衝擊，因此，自2021年以來，歐洲對俄羅斯化肥的進口量幾乎沒有變化。數據顯示，2025年第一季度，歐盟國家進口了價值6.4億美元（5.5億歐元）的俄羅斯化肥。

• 鎳：歐盟已實現進口多元化，更依賴來自美國、挪威、英國和加拿大的鎳。儘管如此，歐盟在2025年第一季仍從俄羅斯進口了價值3億美元（2.6億歐元）的鎳。鎳主要用於製造不銹鋼和其他合金鋼以及電池。

 

有數百家西方公司仍在俄羅斯

除了進出口大宗商品外，許多西方公司仍紮根於在俄羅斯。

根據耶魯大學管理學院和基輔經濟學院研究所彙編的榜單，一些美國著名的不願意妥協分子仍在俄羅斯運營，其中包括排名前100的公司。

數十家歐洲企業，包括面向消費者的品牌、零售商和軟件公司，也留在了俄羅斯。

西方公司為克里姆林宮創造的稅收收入相對較少，但分析師表示，留下來的公司讓俄羅斯民眾得以繼續維持各個層面的正常生活。

耶魯大學管理學院的 Jeffrey Sonnenfeld 表示，企業撤離有助於讓俄羅斯民眾更深入地了解戰爭，並挑戰他們的“自滿情緒” ，同時也使普京更難描繪出一個運作良好的經濟圖。 Sonnenfeld 的大型研究團隊一直在追蹤哪些公司已經撤離。

Sonnenfeld 告訴CNN: 「這是一個正在崩潰的市場 - 它從一開始就不是經濟超級大國 - 這只是一堆障眼法，是普京為了營造更大影響力而耍的虛張聲勢」。

 

印度和中國的能源進口

對比成鮮明的美國和歐盟與莫斯科貿易額減少是，根據聯合國總的數據，2024年印度從俄羅斯進口了價值670億美元的商品。其中約530億美元是石油和原油。

在全面戰爭爆發前的2021年，印度從俄羅斯進口了價值87億美元的商品。

自戰爭爆發以來，印度對俄羅斯石油和天然氣的進口量飆升。根據能源數據公司 Vortexa 的數據，俄羅斯石油目前佔印度市場的36%，這意味著印度從俄羅斯進口的原油比從其他地方進口的都多。

2022年莫斯科全面入侵烏克蘭後，中國也增加了俄羅斯原油的採購。西方國家大幅減少對俄羅斯燃料的進口後，俄羅斯原油價格下跌。根據nVortexan的數據，俄羅斯目前佔中國原油進口量的13.5%。

聯合國總數據顯示，2024年中國進口了約1,300億美元的俄羅斯商品，其中包括626億美元的石油和原油。

So, while President Donald Trump is threatening an additional tariff on India as well as higher tariffs on other countries that buy Russian oil as an attempt to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, the United States and Europe themselves are still doing billions of dollars in trade with Russia although that’s a fraction of the trade that took place before the war. It is also noted that some large American-based companies continue to operate in Russia. Apparently, trade war is not very effective in stopping Russian from continuing its war in Ukraine.

儘管多年戰爭，美國和歐洲仍在與俄羅斯進行著價值數十億美元的貿易往來 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The US and Europe are still doing billions of dollars’ worth of business with Russia despite years of war (1/2)

Lauren Kent, CNN

Thu, August 14, 2025 at 5:03 a.m. PDT 8 min read

US President Donald Trump is threatening an additional 25% tariff on India as well as higher tariffs on other countries that buy Russian oil, in an attempt to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. But the United States and Europe themselves are still doing billions of dollars in trade with Russia – although that’s a fraction of the trade that took place before the war.

India has argued that it’s being unfairly targeted with the tariff increase, calling it “unjustified” given that other nations also do business with Moscow.

Trade between Russia and the US has fallen by about 90% since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but last year, the US still imported $3 billion worth of goods from Russia, according to the latest data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Census Bureau.

Meanwhile, the European Union – which has been the Americans’ partner in sanctions against Russia – imported $41.9 billion (36 billion euros) of goods from Russia in 2024, data from the bloc’s statistics agency shows.

“It’s significant, but I think the more significant thing is how quickly the EU adjusted to reduce their dependency on Russia,” said Kimberly Donovan, director of the Economic Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council, a DC-based think tank. “They’re making huge strides to further reduce how much they’re getting from (Russia).”

EU imports from Russia dropped by 86% between the first quarters of 2022 and 2025, according to Eurostat data.

“I do think that there is a lot of opportunity for the US and even the EU to increase our trade with countries like Canada and get the products that we need from them,” Donovan added. “That’s where the trade wars and the negotiations over tariffs are really throwing things for a loop and are reducing our ability to be strategic in how we’re approaching the Russia problem.”

These are the areas where economic ties with Russia remain the strongest, for the US and Europe respectively.

 

US trade with Russia:

• Fertilizer: The US imported $927 million worth of fertilizer in the first half of this year, US Census Bureau data shows. Last year, fertilizer imports from Russia totaled more than $1 billion. The US particularly relies on Russia for imports of three types of chemical fertilizers: urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and potassium chloride muriate of potash, also called potash.

“Unless the US sanctions Russian fertilizer imports, as it does with Belarusian potash, this (level of trade) is likely to continue,” said Allan Pickett, head of fertilizer analysis at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “Russia remains one of the most important global fertilizer suppliers and the influence of it has not diminished since 2022.”

“Urea and potash could be readily sourced from elsewhere, although with potash it would further increase US dependence on Canada, which currently has an interesting trade dynamic,” Pickett added.

The Trump administration recently hiked tariffs on Canada to a minimum of 35% –unless goods are compliant with the terms of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement – escalating ongoing trade tensions with its northern neighbor.

• Palladium: Although palladium imports from Russia have reduced significantly since 2021, data shows that the US still imported $878 million worth of the metal in 2024 and $594 million worth in 2025, through June. The silvery metal is used in various electronic and industrial products and it’s a key component in the catalytic converters of cars.

• Uranium and plutonium: The US has imported $755 million worth of uranium and plutonium from Russia so far this year, according to Census data through June. It imported $624 million worth of those commodities from Russia in 2024.

(to be continued)

Translation

儘管多年戰爭，美國和歐洲仍在與俄羅斯進行著價值數十億美元的貿易往來 (1/2)

 美國總統特朗普威脅印度加徵25%的關稅，並對購買俄羅斯石油的其他國家提高關稅，試圖向莫斯科施壓，迫使其結束烏克蘭戰爭。然而，美國和歐洲本身仍在與俄羅斯進行數十億美元的貿易往來 - 儘管這僅僅是烏克蘭戰爭前貿易額的一小部分。

印度辯稱，由於其他國家也與莫斯科有貿易往來，提高關稅對其不公平，並稱其「不合理」。

自克里姆林宮全面入侵烏克蘭以來，俄美貿易額下降了約90%，但根據美國經濟分析局（BEA）和人口普查局的最新數據，去年美國仍從俄羅斯進口了價值30億美元的商品。

同時，歐盟統計局的數據顯示，作為美國的合作制裁俄羅斯夥伴，歐盟在2024年從俄羅斯進口了價值419億美元（360億歐元）的商品。

總部位於華盛頓特區的智庫大西洋理事會經濟治國方略倡議主任 Kimberly Donovan 表示: 「這很重要，但我認為更重要的是歐盟有幾迅速地減少對俄羅斯的依賴」; 「他們正在大力減少從（俄羅斯）的進口量」。

根據歐盟統計局的數據，2022年第一季至2025年第一季度，歐盟從俄羅斯的進口量下降了86%。

Donovan 補充道: 「我確實認為，美國乃至歐盟都有很多機會增加與加拿大等國家的貿易，並從他們那裡獲得我們所需的產品」; 「就是這點貿易戰和關稅談判確實令人感到意外，削弱了我們在處理俄羅斯問題上的戰略能力」。

在這些領域美國和歐洲分別與俄羅斯有緊密的經濟聯繫。

 

美國與俄羅斯的貿易：

• 化肥：美國人口普查局的數據顯示，今年上半年美國進口了價值 9.27 億美元的化肥。去年，美國從俄羅斯進口的化肥總額超過10億美元。美國尤其依賴俄羅斯進口三種化學肥料：尿素、硝酸銨尿素 (UAN) 和氯化鉀,也稱為鉀肥。

標普全球大宗商品洞察公司化肥分析主管 Allan Pickett 表示： “除非美國像制裁白俄羅斯鉀肥那樣制裁俄羅斯化肥進口，否則這種（貿易水平）可能會持續下去”“俄羅斯仍然是全球最重要的化肥供應國之一，其影響力自2022年以來從未減弱。”

Pickett補充道： “尿素和鉀肥很容易從其他地方採購，但美國進一步向加拿大採購鉀肥將增加其依賴，而它與加拿大目前的貿易正處於交互變化的動態。”

特朗普政府最近將對加拿大的關稅提高到最低35% - 除非商品符合美墨加自由貿易協定的條款 - 這加劇了美國與北方鄰國之間持續的貿易緊張局勢。

• 鈀：儘管自2021年以來，美國從俄羅斯進口的鈀已大幅減少，但數據顯示，截至今年6月，美國在2024年仍進口了價值8.78億美元的鈀，在2025年進口了價值 5.94 億美元的鈀。這種銀色金屬用於各種電子和工業產品，也是汽車催化轉換器的關鍵零件。

• 鈾和鈈：根據截至6月的人口普查數據，美國今年迄今已從俄羅斯進口了價值7.55億美元的鈾和鈈。 2024年，美國從俄羅斯進口了價值 6.24 億美元此類的商品。

（待續）