China's March Export Growth Slows Significantly; the Focus is How High Oil Prices Will Affect

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

中国 3月輸出額 伸びが大幅鈍化 原油高がどう影響するか焦点

2026年4月14日午後6時04分

中国

中国の3月の輸出額は、ヨーロッパや東南アジア向けが伸びたことから、去年の同じ月と比べて2％余り増えました。ただ、前の2か月間と比べると伸びが大幅に鈍化していて、イラン情勢の緊迫化に伴う原油価格の高止まりが、今後、どう影響するかが焦点です。

中国の税関当局が、14日に発表した貿易統計によりますと、3月の輸出額は、去年の同じ月と比べてドル換算で2.5％増加しました。

このうち、

▽アメリカ向けは、トランプ政権による関税措置の影響で26％余り減った一方、

▽ヨーロッパや東南アジア向けが伸び、アメリカの減少分を補いました。

ただ、21％余り増加した前の2か月間と比べると、輸出額の伸びは、大幅に鈍化しました。

イラン情勢の緊迫化に伴って原油価格の高止まりが続けば、中国の主要な輸出先の内需が冷え込み、輸出に悪影響がおよぶという指摘も出ていて、今後、原油価格の高止まりが中国の輸出にどう影響するかが焦点です。

一方、輸入額は、去年の同じ月と比べ、27.8％増加しました。

また、日本との貿易は、日中関係が悪化する中でも輸出額が3％余り、輸入額が35％余り、それぞれ増えました。

Translation

China's March Export Growth Slows Significantly; the Focus is  How High Oil Prices Will Affect

April 14, 2026, 6:04 PM

China

China's March exports increased by more than 2% compared to the same month last year, driven by growth in exports to Europe and Southeast Asia. However, compared to the previous two months this represented a significant slowdown, the focus now would be on how the persistently high crude oil prices due to the escalating tensions in Iran could affect the situation.

According to trade statistics released by Chinese customs authorities on the 14th, March exports increased by 2.5% in dollar terms compared to the same month last year.

Of this,

▽On the one hand exports to the United States decreased by more than 26% due to tariff measures imposed by the Trump administration,

▽Exports to Europe and Southeast Asia increased, offsetting the decline in exports to the United States.

However, compared to the previous two months, when exports increased by more than 21%, the growth in export value decreased significantly.

With tensions escalating in Iran and persistently high crude oil prices, there were also concerns that the slowdown in domestic demand in China's major export markets could negatively impact exports. The focus now would be how persistently high crude oil prices might affect Chinese exports.

On the other hand, imports increased by 27.8% compared to the same month last year.

Furthermore, trade with Japan saw increases of over 3% in exports and over 35% in imports respectively, even amid deteriorating Japan-China relations.

So, China's March exports increased by more than 2% compared to the same month last year, driven by growth in exports to Europe and Southeast Asia. However, compared to the previous two months this represented a significant slowdown. Apparently, the persistently high crude oil prices due to the escalating tensions in Iran is affecting China’s trading performance.

US March Employment Statistics: Employment Increases by 178,000 from Previous Month, Easing Concerns about Slowdown

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

US Employment figure (Source: NHK)

米 3月雇用統計 就業者は前月比17万8000人増 減速懸念和らぐ

2026年4月3日午後10時01分

(2026年4月3日午後11時52分更新)

雇用統計

円相場や株価に影響を及ぼすアメリカの雇用統計が発表され、3月の農業分野以外の就業者は前の月から17万8000人増加し、市場の予想を上回りました。また、失業率も4.3％と前の月より0.1ポイント低下し、雇用情勢の減速への懸念はひとまず和らぎそうです。

アメリカ労働省が3日に発表した3月の雇用統計によりますと、景気の動向を敏感に示す農業分野以外の就業者は、前の月から17万8000人増加し、市場予想を上回りました。

2月のデータは下方修正され、前の月と比べて9万2000人の減少から13万3000人の減少になりましたが、金融市場では、アメリカを襲った寒波や医療大手のストライキなどが影響した可能性があり一時的な減少との受け止めが出ています。

また、失業率は4.3％で、前の月から0.1ポイント低下し、雇用情勢の減速への懸念はひとまず和らぎそうです。

一方、インフレに結びつくデータとして注目される労働者の平均時給は

▽前の年の同じ月と比べて3.5％

▽前の月と比べると0.2％上昇し、いずれも市場予想を下回りました。

金融市場では、賃金の上昇が個人消費を活性化してインフレを加速させる可能性は低下しているとの見方が出ていますがイラン情勢による原油価格の高騰が物価をどこまで押し上げるのかが今後の焦点になります。

Translation

US March Employment Statistics: Employment Increases by 178,000 from Previous Month, Easing Concerns about Slowdown

April 3, 2026, 10:01 PM

(Updated April 3, 2026, 11:52 PM)

Employment Statistics

US employment statistics, which would affect the yen exchange rate and stock prices, had been released. Non-agricultural employment in March increased by 178,000 from the previous month, exceeding market expectations. Also, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, which would likely ease concerns about a slowdown in the employment situation for the time being.

According to the March employment statistics released by the US Department of Labor on the 3rd, non-agricultural employment, being a sensitive indicator of economic trends, increased by 178,000 from the previous month, exceeding market expectations.

The February data was revised downward, compared to the previous month that showing a decrease of 92,000 people, it had now decreased to 133,000 people.  However, financial markets believed this is a temporary decline, possibly influenced by the cold wave that hit the US and strikes at major healthcare companies.

Furthermore, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, easing concerns about a slowdown in the employment situation for the time being.

Meanwhile, the average hourly wage of workers, which was attracting attention as data linked to inflation,

-           rose by 3.5% compared to the same month last year,

-          and by 0.2% compared to the previous month, both below market expectations.

While some in financial markets believed that rising wages were less likely to stimulate personal consumption and accelerate inflation, the focus from now on would be on how far the surge in oil prices due to the situation in Iran could push up prices.

So, non-agricultural employment in March has increased. Also, the unemployment rate has fallen compared to the previous month, easing concerns about a slowdown in the employment. The focus now would be on how far the oil prices increase due to the situation in Iran will push up commodity prices in the US in the coming months.

美國對石油的依賴遠低於以往

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

America Depends Less on Oil Than Ever

Gasoline still drives household budgets, but energy efficiency and renewables have reduced the economy’s overall reliance on petroleum.

The New York Times - By Lydia DePillis, Karl Russell contributed reporting.

March 14, 2026, 5:02 a.m. ET

War with Iran has frozen commerce in the Persian Gulf and boosted oil prices by more than 50 percent worldwide, translating almost immediately into higher gasoline costs. It’s the largest global oil disruption ever and is likely to accelerate inflation throughout this year.

And yet, in the United States, the impact is much more muted than it would have been a few decades ago.

That’s in part because America uses less energy per unit of economic output than it used to. In economist-speak, the U.S. economy is less “energy intensive,” for a few reasons.

One, the U.S. economy now depends largely on services like health care, retail and entertainment, which require much less energy than manufacturing industries. There are only about 21 million jobs in goods-producing sectors, while private services employ 114 million people.

And two, the machines that Americans do use are now much more efficient, a trend that started in earnest after the oil price shocks of the 1970s. According to the Department of Transportation, the average new light-duty vehicle gets 28 miles per gallon of gas, up from 13 in 1975. Gasoline consumption rose until 2007, then leveled off as electric vehicles gained traction. As a result, consumer spending on gas as a share of discretionary income has fallen.

Economists at Wells Fargo estimate that a sustained 50 percent rise in oil prices — similar to the current situation — would have had about twice the effect in the 1980s as it would today, when it’s expected to trim about one percentage point from annual consumer spending growth.

The United States has also become the world’s largest oil and gas producer. Rather than depend on supply from the Middle East, the rest of the world now consumes petroleum products that are fracked from North Dakota and West Texas.

All that new supply helped bring down prices globally in the 2010s, especially after Congress lifted a ban on natural gas exports in 2015. Theoretically, it means that profits from oil production stay in the United States, and can be redeployed for other investment. According to research from the Dallas and Kansas Federal Reserve branches, the shale boom added 1 percent to gross domestic product.

However, it is not clear that U.S. drillers are inclined to play the role of “swing producer” again this time. Price competition during the fracking boom was ruinous for investors. Many companies went bankrupt, unable to pay back all the money they had borrowed for expensive extraction infrastructure. They learned a lesson: Don’t invest a lot of money in pumping more just because prices rise. Especially if you’re not sure whether those prices will sink back down.

“I don’t see much happening from the production side in order to mitigate the effects for the U.S. economy,” said Christiane Baumeister, an economics professor at the University of Notre Dame who studies oil markets. “Companies just prioritize delivering returns to shareholders,” she said. “I think they would rather take advantage of the current situation to increase profits rather than investing that back into expanding output.”

Another deterrent to ramping up production: Steel and aluminum tariffs have raised the cost of the pipes and valves needed for it. The number of oil rigs that are actively pumping in the United States is down 7 percent from this time last year.

Even with the U.S. oil industry operating at full steam, it doesn’t generate many benefits for U.S. workers, as oil companies have learned how to operate with fewer people. The United States is pumping more oil and gas than ever, but the extraction, drilling and oil field services industries have been shedding jobs. The sector employs about 363,000 people, which is about 0.2 percent of all employment.

The Shale Jobs Boom Is Over

And despite the huge boom in U.S. oil production over the past 15 years, it has not become a more meaningful part of Americans’ stock portfolios. Exxon Mobil and Chevron had long been among the most valuable companies in the stock market. But the entire oil and gas sector now makes up just 3.2 percent of the S&P 500 index, down from 5.5 percent a decade ago. Their stocks had consistently underperformed the broader index, until soaring oil prices lifted their fortunes after the United States and Israel attacked Iran.

“The oil and gas industry’s financial strategy has been ‘pray for war,’ because those are the conditions under which they make money,” said Clark Williams-Derry, an oil industry financial analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “They have to have a big price spike every few years literally to make ends meet.”

The Americans most vulnerable to an oil-price shock are people with lower incomes who haven’t been able to buy their way out of gasoline dependence. Electric vehicles are more expensive than gas-powered cars, and their owners are disproportionately affluent and well educated, according to a recent paper by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University. As the Trump administration rolls back energy efficiency standards for appliances and fuel economy rules for cars, oil price increases could start to have a bigger impact.

Lower-Income Americans Spend More on Fuel

Electricity bills are another substantial cost, absorbing 3.6 percent of budgets for households in the lowest 20 percent of earners, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although renewable energy sources have been supplying more of that electricity, fossil fuels still account for 60 percent.

“Talk to someone who doesn’t make a lot of money, and see if they’re resilient to oil and gas,” Mr. Williams-Derry said. “In terms of a variable expenditure that you can’t control, it’s up there.”

Translation

美國對石油的依賴遠低於以往

汽油仍然是家庭預算的主要支出，但能源效率和再生能源的發展降低了美國經濟整體地對石油的依賴

美國與伊朗的戰爭導致波斯灣地區的貿易停滯，並使全球油價上漲超過50%，幾乎立即推高了汽油價格。這是有史以​​來規模最大的全球石油供應中斷事件，並可能在今年加速通膨。

然而，在美國，戰爭的影響遠比幾十年前小得多。

部分原因是美國每單位經濟產出的能源消耗量比以往低。用經濟學家的話來說，由於以下幾個原因，美國經濟的「能源密集度」降低了。

首先，美國經濟如今主要依賴醫療保健、零售和娛樂等服務業，這些產業所需的能源遠低於製造業。商品生產業的就業人數僅約2,100萬個，而私人服務業則僱用了1.14億人。

其次，美國人使用的機器效率大幅提升，趨勢始於1970年代的石油危機之後。根據美國交通部統計，目前新型輕型車輛的平均油耗為每加侖汽油行駛28英里，高於1975年的13英里。汽油消耗量在2007年之前持續曾長，之後隨著電動車的普及而趨於平穩。因此，消費者在汽油上的支出佔可支配收入所得的比例下降。

富國銀行的經濟學家估計，如果油價持續上漲50% - 類似於目前的情況 - 其影響在1980年代將是現在的兩倍左右，現預計只會使年度消費者支出成長率下降約1個百分點。

美國也成為全球最大的石油和天然氣生產國。如今，世界其他地區不再依賴中東的供應，而是消費來自北達科他州和西德克薩斯州頁岩氣開採的石油產品。

所有這些新增供應在2010年代幫助全球油價下降，尤其是在國會於2015年解除天然氣出口禁令之後。理論上，這意味著石油生產的利潤留在美國，可以重新用於其他投資。根據達拉斯和堪薩斯聯邦儲備銀行的研究，頁岩氣繁榮使美國國內生產毛額增加了1%。

然而，目前尚不清楚美國鑽井公司是否願意再次扮演「搖擺生產商」的角色。頁岩氣繁榮時期的價格競爭給投資者帶來了毀滅性的打擊。許多公司破產，無力償還為昂貴的開採基礎設施而貸來的所有資金。他們吸取了一個教訓：不要因為價格上漲就投入大量資金增加產量。尤其是在不確定油價是否會回落的情況下。

聖母大學研究石油市場的經濟學教授 Christian Baumeister 表示:「我認為生產方面不會採取太多措施來緩解對美國經濟的影響」。她說: 「公司優先考慮的是為股東創造回報」; 「我認為他們寧願利用當前形勢增加利潤，而不是將利潤再投資於擴大產量」。

另一個阻礙增產的因素是：鋼鐵和鋁關稅提高了石油生產所需管線和閥門的成本。目前美國正在作業的鑽井平台數量比去年同期下降了7%。

即使美國石油業全力運作，也未能為美國工人帶來多少好處，因為石油公司已經學會如何以更少的人力去運作。美國的石油和天然氣產量比以往任何時候都高，但開採、鑽井和油田服務業卻一直在裁員。該行業僱用了約36.3萬人，約佔全部就業人數的0.2%。

頁岩油就業繁榮已經結束

儘管過去15年美國石油產量大幅成長，但它並未在美國人的股票投資組合中佔有更重要的地位。埃克森美孚和雪佛龍長期以來一直是股市中最有價值的公司之一。但如今，整個石油和天然氣產業在標普500指數中的佔比僅3.2%，低於十年前的5.5%。在美和以攻擊伊朗後，油價飆升才提振了它們的業績，此前它們的股票表現一直遜於大盤。

能源經濟與金融分析研究所的石油行業金融分析師Clark Williams-Derry表示:“石油和天然氣行業的財務策略一直是 ‘祈求戰爭’，因為只有在戰爭時期他們才能賺錢” ;“他們必須每隔幾年就經歷一次油價大幅上漲才能維持收支平衡。”

最容易受到油價衝擊的美國人是低收入者難以擺脫對汽油的依賴。卡內基美隆大學研究人員最近發表的一篇論文指出，電動車比汽油車更貴，而且電動車的車主往往更富裕、受過良好教育。隨著特朗普政府逐步取消家用電器能源效率標準和汽車燃油效率規定，油價上漲的影響可能會越來越大。

低收入美國人用較多錢在燃料上

電費是另一項重大開支，根據美國勞工統計局的數據顯示，電費佔收入最低的20%家庭預算的3.6%。儘管再生能源的電力供應佔比不斷提高，但化石燃料仍佔60%。

Williams-Derry先生說: 「和那些收入不高的人聊聊，看看他們是否能承受得住石油和天然氣的衝擊」; 「就你無法控制的可變動支出而言，這筆開支是相當可觀」。

        So, the war with Iran has boosted oil prices by more than 50 percent worldwide. But in the United States, the impact is much lighter than it would have been a few decades ago. In economic terms, the U.S. economy is less “energy intensive.” U.S. economy now depends largely on services like health care, retail and entertainment, which require much less energy than manufacturing industries. The Americans most vulnerable to an oil-price shock are those with lower incomes who haven’t been able to reduce their gasoline dependence.

印度如何成為世界最大經濟體之一（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

How India Became One of the World’s Biggest Economies (2/2)

India has grown rapidly despite its slow industrialization, and its economy is now nearly as big as Japan’s.

NYT - By Alex Travelli and Aaron Krolik. Alex Travelli reported from New Delhi, and Aaron Krolik from Seoul.

Feb. 27, 2026

(continue)

India is still poor. The average Japanese income is 12 times the Indian average. The average German’s is 21 times as great. Indians on average have incomes of only about $2,900 a year, and the country’s top-heavy economy means most of its citizens make far less.

The contrasts can be shocking. In India, billions of dollars are being invested to build data centers, and airports are sprouting everywhere, even as about 800 million people depend on the government for free sacks of grain.

India’s inequality leaves most of a billion people in a state of subsistence, and it hobbles the country as a whole. Social divisions deepen, it becomes harder to fund public health and education — and it gets much tougher for consumer-facing companies to turn a profit.

But for businesses like Bajaj Finserv, Mr. Bajaj estimated, the better-off 400 million Indians are a great opportunity in their own right. No other country except China has so large a group of consumers, he said.

Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister since 2014, said he intended to transform India into a fully developed country by 2047, the 100th anniversary of its independence. That won’t happen unless the country’s growth speeds up to the kind of pace China achieved earlier this century.

Since the Industrial Revolution, no other place has shot up the top-tier rankings except through the power of its factories. China, factory to the world, devotes 25 percent of its economy to manufacturing. When Mr. Modi announced a Make in India campaign in 2015, manufacturing accounted for 16 percent of the economy. Since then, it has fallen to 13 percent.

That is barely more than in the United States, which is called a postindustrial economy. As is the case in America, India’s economy is driven by its services, led by high-value work like chip design, computer engineering and office work for multinational companies, and powered by transportation and trade in goods.

The evolution of the Bajaj family business illustrates the point.

Bajaj Auto was much bigger than Bajaj Finserv when the companies split ways, but now the banking company is 50 percent larger. Finance, not factories, has been the hotter sector in India, as it is in the United States.

But Bajaj Auto has also grown, in keeping with the industrial part of India’s economy. It produces 4.5 million motorcycles and auto rickshaws a year, nearly half for export to countries like Indonesia, Egypt and Mexico.

The mixed quality of India’s economy has helped it weather storms like the financial crisis of 2008, but it also made the country vulnerable during trade negotiations with President Trump. Focused mainly on serving its own immense population, India found itself without any bargaining chips in global supply chains.

The three cities in the world with the most skyscrapers under construction in 2025 were all in India. The tallest of those buildings, however, the 56-story Palais Royale in Mumbai, is stalled, under construction since 2008. India is in a mode of making tall promises, and delivering on them sporadically.

“Directionally, India is in a very exciting place. It’s screwed up, sure, but we’re in a very interesting position for the next 10 to 15 years,” Mr. Bajaj said. Its young people, perhaps especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, he continued, are “bright, and hungry,” and before long they will become part of the world’s third-largest economy.

Translation

印度如何成為世界最大經濟體之一（2/2）

儘管工業化進程緩慢，印度仍實現了快速成長，其經濟規模如今已接近日本。

（繼續）

印度仍然很貧窮。日本人均收入是印度人的12倍，德國人均所得是印度人的21倍。印度人均年收入僅約2,900美元，而該國經濟活動結構高度過度集中於上層，導致大多數公民的收入遠低於此。

這種對比令人震驚。在印度，數十億美元正被投資用於建造數據庫，機場也如雨後春筍般湧現，同時，約有8億人依賴政府免費發放糧食。

印度的貧富差距導致十億人口中的大多數生活在勉強糊口的境地，也拖累了整個國家的發展。社會分化加劇，公共衛生和教育經費越來越難籌措，面向消費者的企業獲利也變得更加艱難。

但Bajaj先生估計，對於像Bajaj Finserv金融服務公司這樣的企業來說，四億富裕的印度人本身就是一個巨大的商機。他說，除了中國，沒有一個國家擁有如此龐大的消費族群。

自2014年以來一直擔任印度總理的莫迪表示，他計劃在2047年 - 印度獨立一百週年之際 - 將印度轉型為一個完全發達國家。除非印度的經濟成長速度能夠達到中國在本世紀初所取得的水平，否則這一目標將無法實現。

自工業革命以來，除了依靠強大的工廠力量之外，沒有一個國家能躋身世界一流經濟體之列。中國，這個“世界工廠”，其經濟的25%都用於製造業。 2015年莫迪先生宣布「印度製造」運動時，製造業佔印度經濟的16%。此後，這一比例下降至13%。

這僅略高於被稱為後工業經濟體的美國。與美國一樣，印度的經濟也以服務業為驅動，其中以晶片設計、電腦工程和跨國公司辦公服務等高附加價值工作為主導，並以貨物運輸和貿易為支撐。

Bajaj家族企業的演變就說明了這一點。

Bajaj汽車公司在分拆時規模遠大於Bajaj金融服務公司，但如今這公司的銀行的規模卻比汽車公司大了50%。正如在美國一樣，金融業而非製造業才是印度的熱門產業。

但Bajaj汽車公司也隨著印度經濟的工業化而發展壯大。該公司每年生產450萬輛摩托車和自動三輪車，其中近一半出口到印尼、埃及和墨西哥等國家。

印度經濟的複雜結構幫助其抵禦了2008年金融危機等風暴，但也使其在與特朗普總統的貿易談判中處於弱勢地位。由於主要關注服務其龐大的人口，印度在全球供應鏈中缺乏談判籌碼。

到2025年，全球在建摩天大樓最多的三個城市都位於印度。然而，其中最高的建築 - 位於孟買的56層樓高的皇家宮殿大廈（Palais Royale） - 自2008年以來一直處於停工狀態。印度似乎總是做出高遠的承諾，但兌現卻時斷時續。

Bajaj先生說: 「從發展方向來看，印度正處於一個非常令人興奮的階段。當然，它現在也存在一些問題，但在未來10到15年，我們處於一個非常有趣的境地」。他繼續說道，印度的年輕人，尤其是那些來自弱勢背景的年輕人， “聰明且渴望成功” ，他們很快就會成為世界第三大經濟體的一部分。

              So, India, the world’s fastest-growing large economy is showing an expansion at a rate of 7.5 percent last year. In early 2026 India has become the world’s fourth-largest economy, overtaking Japan. India is still poor as about 800 million people are depend on the government for free sacks of grain. The average Japanese income is 12 times the Indian average. The average German’s is 21 times as great. Indians on average have incomes of only about $2,900 a year, and the country’s top-heavy economy means most of its citizens make far less. I am interested in seeing how India will continue to expand its economy in the coming decade.

Note:

1.  A Top-heavy economy (上層經濟活動集中) is an economic structure characterized by significant concentration of wealth and resources, typically within a few sectors or among a small percentage of the population, resulting in imbalances and potential economic weaknesses. (ChatGPT)

特朗普的關稅為何沒有產生更大的影響？(1/2)

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Had a Bigger Impact? (1/2)

Steep import taxes have raised prices and affected U.S. businesses, but not quite as much as expected. A new report offers some reasons.

By Ana Swanson

Jan. 3, 2026

President Trump raised the taxes that the United States charges on imports last year to levels not seen in a century.

Prices of goods have increased as a result, and businesses that depend on imported products and supplies have struggled, with some closing their doors. Still, the effects have not been felt as strongly as some experts predicted after early April when Mr. Trump announced double-digit tariffs on imports from countries worldwide.

A new working paper from economists at Harvard and the University of Chicago helps explain why. It shows that the tariff rate importers have paid is significantly lower than the tariff figures that Mr. Trump announced. The reasons include exemptions for certain countries and industries, rates that were lowered for some goods by the time they arrived in the U.S. and evasion of the rules by some companies.

By analyzing the government’s tariff revenue and the value of imports, the economists concluded that the actual U.S. tariff rate was 14.1 percent at the end of September.

The figure is about half the tariff rate that the administration had officially announced. The average trade-weighted tariff rate for the United States was nominally 27.4 percent in September, the authors estimated, down from a peak of 32.8 percent in April.

“The actual tariffs are much lower than what were announced, and that is one of the reasons why the effects have not been as big as feared,” said Gita Gopinath, a Harvard economist and former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

One factor was an exemption for products that were on boats en route to the United States when tariffs were announced. Shipping goods by ocean to U.S. ports often takes weeks, meaning the tariffs that businesses paid rose more slowly than what Mr. Trump announced throughout the year.

The exemptions for products and countries included semiconductors and some products containing them, a move widely seen as a favor to tech executives. Though officials said they would announce more tariffs on chips and electronics, those have not come.

As a result, companies paid an actual tariff rate of 9 percent on chips brought into the United States, the authors calculated, far below the tariff level for other commodities. And exports from places that make a lot of semiconductors, like Taiwan, faced a far lower actual rate (8 percent) than the official one (28 percent).

Canada and Mexico also received significant exemptions from the nominally high tariffs that Mr. Trump put on them last year. Many goods that are mostly made in North America qualify for zero tariffs under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which Mr. Trump signed in his first term.

(to be continued)

Translation

特朗普的關稅為何沒有產生更大的影響？(1/2)

高額進口關稅推高了物價，影響了美國企業，但其影響程度卻不如預期。一份新的報告對此給了一些解釋。

去年，特朗普總統將美國對進口商品徵收的關稅提高到了百年來未有過的高水平。

商品價格因此上漲，依賴進口產品和物資的企業舉步維艱，有些企業甚至倒閉。然而，其影響並沒有像一些專家在4月初特朗普宣布對全球進口商品加徵兩位數關稅後預測的那樣強烈。

哈佛大學和芝加哥大學的經濟學家撰寫的一份新的工作報告解釋了其中的原因。報告顯示，進口商實際支付的關稅稅率遠低於特朗普宣佈的稅率。原因包括某些國家和行業的豁免、部分商品在抵達美國時稅率有所降低，以及一些公司規避了相關規定。

經濟學家透過分析政府的關稅收入和進口額，得出結論：截至9月底，美國的實際關稅稅率為14.1%。

這一數字約為政府官方公佈關稅稅率的一半。作者估計，9月美國貿易加權平均關稅稅率名義上為27.4%，低於4月32.8%的高峰。

哈佛大學經濟學家、國際貨幣基金組織前第一副總裁Gita Gopinath表示:「實際關稅遠低於公佈的水平，這也是其影響沒有預期那麼大的原因之一」。

其中一個原因是，關稅宣佈時，正在運往美國的船隻上的貨物獲得了豁免。海運貨物到美國港口通常需要數週時間，這意味著企業實際支付的關稅提高速度比特朗普年內宣佈的速度要慢。

此次豁免的產品和國家包括半導體及有這類部件的製品，此舉普遍被視為對科技公司高階主管的優待。儘管官員表示將宣佈對晶片和電子產品加徵更多關稅，但至今仍未出台。

因此，據作者計算企業實際支付的晶片進口關稅稅率為9%，遠低於其他商品的關稅水準。而來自台灣等半導體生產大國的出口產品，實際關稅稅率（8%）也遠低於官方稅率（28%）。

加拿大和墨西哥也獲得了特朗普去年對其徵收的名義高額關稅的顯著豁免。許多主要產自北美的商品, 根據特朗普在第一任期內簽署的《美墨加協定》可享有零關稅待遇。

（待續）

Note:

1. The average trade-weighted tariff rate (平均貿易加權關稅率) for the United States is the average U.S. import tariff rate, where each tariff is weighted by the share of total U.S. imports to which it applies. In plain-language explanation it means that instead of simply averaging all tariff rates equally, this measure gives more importance to tariffs applied to goods the U.S. imports a lot, and less importance to tariffs on rarely imported goods. (ChatGPT)

China's December manufacturing business sentiment index surpasses the benchmark for the first time in nine months.

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

中国 12月製造業の景況感示す指数 9か月ぶりに節目上回る

2025年12月31日午後0時41分

中国

中国の12月の製造業の景況感を示す指数は、景気判断の節目となる「50」を9か月ぶりに上回りました。アメリカが11月、中国に対する追加関税の一部を引き下げたことなどで、企業の生産や新規の受注に関する指数が改善したことが主な要因です。

中国の国家統計局が製造業3200社を対象に調査した12月の製造業PMI＝購買担当者景況感指数は、50.1となりました。

11月と比べて0.9ポイント改善し、景気のよしあしを判断する節目となる「50」を9か月ぶりに上回りました。

これは米中首脳会談を受けて、アメリカが11月、中国に対する追加関税の一部を引き下げたことなどで、企業の生産や新規の受注に関する指数が改善したことが主な要因です。

企業の規模別でみますと、

▽大企業が50.8と、節目の「50」を上回った一方、

▽中規模な企業が49.8、

▽小規模な企業が48.6と、節目を下回りました。

このほか、サービス業など非製造業の指数は、50.2となり、2か月ぶりに「50」を上回りました。

ただ、中国では、不動産不況の長期化などを背景に国内需要の停滞が続いていて、中国政府が今後、効果的な消費刺激策などを打ち出し、内需拡大につなげられるかが焦点となります。

Translation

China's December manufacturing business sentiment index surpasses the benchmark for the first time in nine months.

December 31, 2025, 12:41 PM

China

China's December manufacturing business sentiment index surpassed the benchmark of 50 for the first time in nine months. This was primarily due to improvements in indices relating to corporate production and new orders, following the U.S.'s partial reduction of additional tariffs on China in November.

China's National Bureau of Statistics surveyed 3,200 manufacturing companies and reported a December Purchasing Managers' Sentiment Index (PMI) of 50.1.

This represented a 0.9-point improvement from November, surpassing the benchmark of "50" for the first time in nine months. That was a key number in judging good or bad of an economy,

This improvement was primarily due to improvements in indices relating to corporate production and new orders, following the U.S.'s partial reduction of additional tariffs on China in November as a result of a U.S.-China summit.

Looking at the index by company size:

▽Large companies surpassed the 50-point mark at 50.8,

▽medium-sized companies at 49.8,

▽small companies at 48.6, below the mark too.

In addition, the index for non-manufacturing industries such as services was 50.2, exceeding 50 for the first time in two months.

However, domestic demand in China continued to stagnate due to factors such as the prolonged real estate slump, and from now on, the focus would be on whether the Chinese government could implement effective measures to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand.

So, China's December manufacturing business sentiment index has surpassed the benchmark of 50 for the first time in nine months. Meanwhile, domestic demand in China continues to stagnate due to factors such as the prolonged real estate slump. I am interested in knowing whether other new government policies can stimulate manufacturing and business sectors in the future, e.g. a new duty-free zone in Hainan province.

U.S. GDP grew 4.3% in July-September, the highest growth rate in two years, fueled by active consumption by the wealthy

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

米GDP、7～9月期は4.3％増　2年ぶりの高成長　富裕層の消費活発

2025.12.24 Wed posted at 13:44 JST

 （CNN） 米商務省が23日に発表した2025年7〜9月期の国内総生産（GDP）は年率換算で前期比4.3%増だった。4〜6月期の3.8%増を上回り、2年ぶりの高い成長率となった。

7〜9月期のGDPを押し上げた主な要因は、個人消費が前期の2.5%増から3.5%増へと加速したことと、輸出が前期の1.8%減から8.8%増へと回復したことだ。

連邦政府の支出も大きく寄与した。これは防衛費の大幅な増加と、政府支出削減に向けた取り組みの一環である連邦職員の早期退職制度による支出増を反映している。

トランプ大統領は23日、今回のGDPについて、7〜9月期に大幅に引き上げた自身の広範な関税政策の成果だと主張した。ただ、連邦最高裁判所で係争中の訴訟によって、多くの関税が無効となり、輸入業者に多額の還付が生じる可能性もある。

トランプ氏は自身のSNS「トゥルース・ソーシャル」に、「今、発表された素晴らしい米国の経済指標は関税のおかげだ」と投稿した。

 経済状況は複雑

GDPは経済全体を俯瞰（ふかん）する指標だ。その視点では、経済は堅調に見える。しかし、細かく見ていくと必ずしも楽観的とは言えない状況が浮かび上がる。

富裕層の米国人が個人消費の伸びの大部分を支えている一方で、低所得層や中間層の消費者は、より慎重な姿勢を取っている。経済学者はこの現象を「K字形経済」と呼ぶ。

GDP発表から2時間足らず後、民間調査会社コンファレンス・ボードが発表した12月の消費者信頼感指数は89.1と、前月比3.8ポイント低下した。

また、全ての所得層の消費者が雇用情勢に対する懸念を強めている。失業率は最近、4年ぶりの高水準に達した。仕事が「十分にある」と答えた人の割合は、4年ぶりの低さとなった。

Translation

U.S. GDP grew 4.3% in July-September, the highest growth rate in two years, fueled by active consumption by the wealthy

(CNN) The U.S. Commerce Department announced on the 23rd that gross domestic product (GDP) for the July-September quarter of 2025 grew 4.3% annualized from the previous quarter. Surpassing the 3.8% increase in the April-June quarter, this was the highest growth rate in two years.

The main factors driving the GDP increase in the July-September quarter were an acceleration in personal consumption, from 2.5% growth in the previous quarter to 3.5%, and a recovery in exports, from a 1.8% decline in the previous quarter to an 8.8% increase.

Federal government spending also contributed significantly, reflecting a significant increase in defense spending and increased spending on the federal early retirement program, part of efforts to reduce government spending.

On the 23rd, President Trump claimed that the latest GDP figures were the result of his sweeping tariff policies, which were significantly increased in the July-September quarter. However, a lawsuit pending before the Federal Supreme Court could invalidate many tariffs, resulting in substantial refunds to importers.

Trump posted on his social media account, "Truth Social," saying, "These great U.S. economic figures just came out are all thanks to tariffs."

The economic picture was complicated

GDP was a broad-based indicator of the economy. From that perspective, the economy appeared strong. However, a closer look showed a less optimistic picture.

While wealthy Americans were driving the majority of consumer spending growth, low- and middle-class consumers were becoming more cautious. Economists called this a "K-shaped economy."

Less than two hours after the GDP release, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for December fell to 89.1, down 3.8 points from the previous month.

 Also, consumers across all income groups were increasingly concerned about the employment situation. The unemployment rate recently reached a four-year high, and the percentage of people who said they had "enough" jobs was at a four-year low.

So, as wealthy Americans are driving the majority of consumer spending growth, low- and middle-class consumers are becoming more cautious. Economists call this a "K-shaped economy." Apparently, the low- and middle-class are feeling the economy pressure.

November U.S. Employment Report: Number of People Employed Slightly Exceeds Market Expectations, Unemployment Rate Worsens

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

(Source: NHK)

11月の米雇用統計 就業者数は市場予想やや上回る 失業率は悪化

2025年12月16日午後10時56分

(2025年12月17日午前0時28分更新)

アメリカ

円相場や株価に影響を及ぼすアメリカの雇用統計が発表され、先月の失業率は4.6％と、およそ4年ぶりの高い水準となりました。FRB＝連邦準備制度理事会は先週、雇用情勢の減速を受けて利下げを決定していて、その判断が裏付けられた形です。

アメリカ労働省が16日、発表した先月の雇用統計によりますと、景気の動向を敏感に示す農業分野以外の就業者は、前の月から6万4000人増加し、市場の予想をやや上回りました。

ことし10月分は、過去最長となった政府機関の一部閉鎖の影響で多くの職員が退職したため、前の月から10万5000人の減少でした。

また、先月の失業率は、ことし9月と比べて0.2ポイント悪化し、4.6％でした。

これは、2021年9月以来、およそ4年ぶりの高い水準で、ことし7月以降、上昇傾向が続いています。

FRBは、先週開いた金融政策を決める会合で雇用情勢の減速を受けて利下げを決定していて、その判断が裏付けられた形です。

ただ、今回の雇用統計は政府機関の一部閉鎖の影響で発表が遅れたうえ、通常よりも回答率が低く、雇用情勢の減速傾向が今後も続くかどうかが焦点となります。

Translation

November U.S. Employment Report: Number of People Employed Slightly Exceeds Market Expectations, Unemployment Rate Worsens

December 16, 2025, 10:56 PM

(Updated December 17, 2025, 12:28 AM)

U.S.

The U.S. employment report, which influenced the yen and stock prices, showed last month's unemployment rate at 4.6%, the highest level in nearly four years. The Federal Reserve Board decided last week to lower interest rates in response to a slowdown in the employment situation, and this decision appeared to have been confirmed.

According to last month's employment report released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 16th, non-agricultural employment, a sensitive indicator of economic trends, increased by 64,000 from the previous month, slightly exceeding market expectations.

October's employment figures showed a decrease of 105,000 from the previous month due to many employees leaving the government following the longest-ever partial government shutdown.

Additionally, last month's unemployment rate compared to September of this year worsened by 0.2 percentage points to reach 4.6%.

This was the highest level in approximately four years since September 2021, and continued an upward trend since July of this year.

The Federal Reserve Board decided to cut interest rates in response to the slowing employment situation at its monetary policy meeting held last week, and this appeared to confirm that decision.

However, the release of this week's employment statistics was delayed due to the partial government shutdown, and the response rate was lower than usual, so the focus would be on whether the slowing employment trend could continue.

So, last month's unemployment rate in the US was 4.6%, the highest level in nearly four years. The Federal Reserve Board decided last week to lower interest rates in response to a slowdown in the employment situation. Probably, stock buyers’ attention will now focus on whether the slowing employment trend will continue.

中國投資在11月大幅下滑後，逼近30年來首次出現年度下降

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

China Nears First Investment Decline in 3 Decades After Sharp Monthly Drop

A broad measure of investment fell more than 10 percent in November, continuing a recent reversal and signaling the depth of China’s property crisis.

By Daisuke Wakabayashi (Daisuke Wakabayashi, the Asia business correspondent, reported from Seoul.)

Dec. 15, 2025, 1:21 a.m. ET

Investment in China slowed drastically in November, propelling the country closer toward its first annual decline in more than three decades.

Investment for housing, public infrastructure and manufacturing fell 2.6 percent from January through November, marking another month of sharp decline in so-called fixed-asset investment, China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday. The research firm Capital Economics estimated that investment fell 11.1 percent in November from a year earlier, a second straight month of double-digit declines over 2024.

The November drop puts China on the brink of a historic slowdown in investment. For more than 30 years, as China’s economy grew by leaps and bounds, investment in buildings, public works and factories had increased every year since the late 1980s.

The pullback, which began in the second half of this year, signals growing caution about the Chinese economy.

Investment in real estate, once considered a pillar of China’s growth, continued to drop precipitously last month. Investment in public infrastructure and manufacturing also fell, as all three main components of fixed-asset investment declined.

It is unusual for investment to decline across all three segments, indicating the confluence of problems affecting the Chinese economy. China is dealing with an entrenched real estate crisis that has shaken confidence. Because of the property slump, local governments lack the funds to plow money into public works projects. And Beijing’s efforts to curb excessive competition, which is harming even China’s fast-growing industries, have slowed investment in new factories.

In a news conference on Monday, Fu Linghui, the spokesman and chief economist of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said that while the overall figure was down, investment in key areas such as clean energy technology continued to grow, laying the foundation for medium- to long-term growth.

Chinese officials have signaled that stabilizing investment and reversing the downturn are policy priorities for the coming year.

“Policy support should help drive a partial recovery in the coming months, but this probably won’t prevent China’s growth from remaining weak across 2026 as a whole,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Monday.

In addition to investment, China reported other indicators pointing to continued economic sluggishness. Retail sales, a measure of consumer spending, rose 1.3 percent, the slowest pace in almost three years.

The property sector continued to receive worrying news, reinforcing the view that the real estate collapse shows no signs of abating. China Vanke, one of the country’s largest property developers, failed to win approval of a plan to delay repaying a bond that was due on Monday, moving the company closer to default.

In a Monday filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Vanke stated that it has a “grace period” of five working days after failing to make a payment on time. It said it plans to convene another meeting of bondholders during that time.

Translation

中國投資在11月大幅下滑後，逼近30年來首次出現年度下降

11月份，一項衡量投資的綜合指標下降超過10%，延續了近期的下滑趨勢，也凸顯了中國房地產危機的嚴重程度。

11月份中國投資大幅放緩，使該國距離30多年來的首次年度下降更近一步。

中國國家統計局週一公佈的數據顯示，11月住房、公共基礎設施和製造業投資年減2.6%，標誌著所謂固定資產投資連續第二個月大幅下滑。研究公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics) 估計，投資在11月較去年同期下降了11.1%，這是連續第二個月出現超過2024年的兩位數降幅。

11月份的下滑使中國投資瀕臨歷史性放緩的邊緣。過去三十多年來，隨著中國經濟快速發展，自1980年代末期以來，建築、公共工程和工廠的投資逐年成長。

今年下半年開始的投資回落，預示著人們對中國經濟的擔憂日益加劇。

房地產投資曾被視為中國經濟成長的支柱，但上個月繼續大幅下滑。公共基礎設施和製造業的投資也出現下降，固定資產投資的三大組成部分都出現下滑。

這三大領域的投資同時下降實屬罕見，顯示中國經濟正面臨多重問題的交織。中國正經歷一場根深蒂固的房地產危機，這場危機動搖了人們的信心。由於房地產市場低迷，地方政府缺乏資金投入公共工程項目。此外，北京為遏止過度競爭而採取的措施，甚至損害了中國快速成長的產業，也減緩了對新工廠的投資。

週一，中國國家統計局發言人兼首席經濟學家Fu Linghui在新聞發布會上表示，儘管整體投資額有所下降，但清潔能源技術等重點領域的投資持續增長，為中長期增長奠定了基礎。

中國官員已發出訊號，穩定投資、扭轉經濟下滑趨勢是未來一年的政策重點。

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)中國經濟學家Zichun Huang週一在一份報告中寫道:「政策支持應有助於推動未來幾個月經濟出現部分復甦，但這可能無法阻止中國經濟在2026年全年持續疲軟」。

除投資外，中國公佈的其他指標也顯示經濟持續低迷。衡量消費支出的零售銷售成長1.3%，為近三年來最低增速。

房地產產業持續傳來令人擔憂的消息，進一步印證了房地產市場崩盤仍未見緩和跡象的觀點。中國最大的房地產開發商之一萬科未能獲得批准，推遲償還原定於週一到期的債券，這使得該公司距離違約更近一步。

萬科週一向香港聯交所提交的文件顯示，公司在未能按時付款後享有五個工作日的「寬限期」。該公司表示，計劃在此期間再次召開債券持有人會議。

              So, in China investment in housing, public infrastructure and manufacturing fell, marking another month of sharp decline in so-called fixed-asset investment. In addition to investments, retail sales, a measure of consumer spending, rose 1.3 percent, the slowest pace in almost three years. Apparently, all economic indicators are pointing to a slowing Chinese economy.