儘管特朗普發表了格陵蘭相關言論，但中國和俄羅斯並未對它有威脅（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Despite Trump’s Words, China and Russia Are Not Threatening Greenland (2/2)

U.S. and European officials say they are unaware of any intelligence that shows China and Russia are endangering the island, which is protected by the NATO security umbrella.

By Edward Wong - Edward Wong reports from Washington on U.S. foreign policy and is a former Beijing bureau chief for The Times who has a written a book about China.

Jan. 24, 2026

Updated 8:19 a.m. ET

(continue)

China and Russia collect some intelligence near Greenland and in the Arctic that is focused mostly on activities at the U.S. military’s Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, an American official said. And Russian submarines and other military assets have sailed near Greenland. But neither country has threatened Greenland’s sovereignty or security, said that official and another U.S. official.

Former U.S. officials said that during the Biden administration, there were no major intelligence reports about Russian or Chinese activities near Greenland. And Western intelligence officials said no significant activity was reported in the past year.

Mr. Culver said China is not an Arctic power yet in any real sense. And in any case, China does not need Greenland or to get close to the American mainland to launch nuclear warheads at the continental United States. The same goes for Russia.

In 2020, China’s first domestic-built icebreaker, the Snow Dragon Two, completed an Arctic expedition. (The original Snow Dragon was built in Ukraine during the Soviet era.) China now has a handful of icebreakers, but commercial Chinese vessels going through the region rely on Russian icebreakers and Russian outposts.

What China wants is to have certain rights in the Arctic, including ones related to navigation, natural resource extraction and environmental management, Mr. Culver said. Discussions about those issues often take place at meetings of the Arctic Council, a multilateral organization established in 1996 whose eight full members include the United States and Russia. China has observer status.

Some former U.S. officials said they were concerned about the strains that Mr. Trump’s push to control Greenland was putting on relations between the United States and its European allies, and how the tensions weakened the ability of those nations to challenge or deter Chinese or Russian ambitions across the globe.

“We already have de facto control in Greenland,” said Rush Doshi, a former China director on the Biden White House’s National Security Council. “The marginal increase in control we might get from taking the territory threatens to blow up our relations with important allies and partners.”

Those relations are needed for the United States and its allies to work together to re-industrialize at scale in order to compete with China, he added.

Mr. Doshi said China does seek to make commercial inroads in the Arctic, but the United States can address those in talks with allies and partners. And any Arctic challenge from China, he said, is “less significant than the Soviet threat during the Cold War. And even during the Cold War, we didn’t militarily seize Greenland. If we didn’t seize it then, what’s the reason to seize it now?”

Mr. Trump has mentioned that Greenland has critical minerals, which are important for civilian and military uses. Last year, Chinese leaders threatened to impose bans on exports of its processed rare earths and critical minerals to the United States, which compelled Mr. Trump to back down from his trade war with China.

Mr. Trump has said that having access to the raw minerals is not the main issue for the United States, but rather having the ability to process and refine them. China has a global monopoly on that production, and U.S. territorial control of Greenland would not change that.

As for Russia, it has been an Arctic power since the Cold War, but it does not pose an immediate threat to Greenland, said Fiona Hill, a senior director for Russian and European affairs in the first Trump administration.

“Trump has become obsessed with owning it,” she said. “He wants the greatest land deal in history — that’s the context.”

During the first Trump term, a billionaire friend of the president, Ronald S. Lauder, mentioned to Mr. Trump the idea of acquiring Greenland, and from then on Mr. Trump became fixated on the territory, Ms. Hill said, confirming earlier reports. Ms. Hill said she and other White House officials began working on a memo with legally viable proposals, including basing more troops on the island.

Mr. Trump’s statements in interviews about his personal desire to acquire Greenland underscore the idea that the concern over security appears to be a pretext. It is similar to how he cited drug smuggling from Venezuela last fall as the rationale for his renewed aggression against that country when the actual core reason turned out to be his drive for its oil.

Speaking about Greenland, Mr. Trump said in a Times interview this month that taking it was “psychologically important for me.” And in 2021, he told the authors of the book “The Divider” that he needed to acquire the island because it was “massive.”

Mr. Doshi said, “Is this really about China and Russia, or is the discussion of China and Russia masking the reality of what is behind the drive for Greenland, which is an imperial project based on vanity?”

Translation

儘管特朗普發表了格陵蘭相關言論，但中國和俄羅斯並未對它有威脅（2/2）

美國和歐洲官員表示，他們沒有收到任何情報顯示中國和俄羅斯正在危及受北約安全保護的格陵蘭島。

（繼續）

一位美國官員表示，中國和俄羅斯在格陵蘭島附近和北極地區收集了一些情報，主要集中在美國位於格陵蘭島的Pituffik太空基地的活動上。俄羅斯潛艇和其他軍事力量也曾在格陵蘭島附近航行。但這位官員和另一位美國官員都表示，這兩個國家都沒有威脅格陵蘭島的主權或安全。

在拜登政府執政期間的美國前官員表示，沒有俄羅斯或中國在格陵蘭島附近活動的重要情報報告。西方情報官員也表示，過去一年沒有收到任何重大活動報告。

Culver說，中國目前還遠遠未達到任何在意義上的北極強國地位。而且，中國並不需要格陵蘭島，也不需要靠近美國本土就能向美國本土發射核彈頭。俄羅斯的情況也是一樣。

2020年，中國首艘國產破冰船「雪龍二號」完成了一次北極探險。 （最初的「雪龍號」是在蘇聯時期於烏克蘭建造的。）中國目前擁有少量破冰船，但途經該地區的中國商船仍然依賴俄羅斯的破冰船和俄羅斯的前哨站。

Culver說，中國想要的是在北極地區擁有某些權利，包括與航行、自然資源開採和環境管理相關的權利。關於這些問題的討論經常在北極理事會 (Arctic Council) 的會議上進行。北極理事會是一個成立於1996年的多邊組織，其八個正式成員包括美國和俄羅斯。中國是觀察員國。

一些美國前官員表示，他們擔心特朗普試圖控制格陵蘭島的舉動會給美國與其歐洲盟友之間的關係帶來緊張，並削弱這些國家在全球範圍內挑戰或遏制中國或俄羅斯野心的能力。

拜登政府國家安全委員會前中國事務主任Rush Doshi表示: “我們已經對格陵蘭島擁有實質上的控制權”，“我們通過佔領該領土可能獲得微小的控制權增長，卻有可能破壞我們與重要盟友和夥伴的關係。”

他還補充說，這些關係對於美國及其盟友攜手合作，大規模實現再工業化，從而與中國競爭至關重要。

Doshi表示，中國確實尋求在北極地區拓展商業版圖，但美國可以透過與盟友和夥伴的談判來應對這些問題。他還說，來自中國的任何北極挑戰都 “遠不及冷戰時期蘇聯的威脅。即使在冷戰時期，我們也沒有武力佔領格陵蘭島。既然當時我們沒有佔領它，現在又有什麼理由要佔領它呢？”

特朗普曾提到，格陵蘭島擁有重要的礦產資源，這些礦產對民用和軍事用途都至關重要。去年，中國領導人威脅要禁止向美國出口其加工後的稀土和其他重要礦產，這迫使特朗普在對華貿易戰中退縮。

特朗普表示，對美國而言，取得這些原料並非主要問題，關鍵在於能否加工和提煉它們。中國在全球礦產生產領域擁有壟斷地位，美國對格陵蘭島的領土控制並不會改變這一現狀。

俄羅斯自冷戰以來一直是北極強國。曾任特朗普第一任期內負責俄羅斯和歐洲事務的高級主管Fiona Hill表示，但它對格陵蘭島並不構成即時威脅。

她說:“特朗普對擁有格陵蘭島這件事已經到了痴迷的地步”，“他想要達成史上最大的土地交易  - 這就是事情的來龍去脈。”

Hill證實了先前的報道，稱在特朗普第一任期內，他的億萬富翁朋友Ronald S. Lauder曾向特朗普提及收購格陵蘭島的想法，此後特朗普便對這片領土念念不忘。Hill表示，她和其他白宮官員開始著手起草一份備忘錄，其中包含一些在法律上可行的方案，包括在島上增派軍隊。

特朗普在訪談中表達出對收購格陵蘭島的個人願望，凸顯了對安全問題的擔憂似乎只是一個藉口。這與他去年秋天以委內瑞拉毒品走私為由，重新對該國採取侵略行動的做法如出一轍，其真正的核心原因是為了攫取委內瑞拉的石油。

本月，特朗普在接受《紐約時報》採訪時談到格陵蘭島，他說取得它「對我的心理意義重大」。 2021年，他在《分割者》(The Divider) 一書中告訴作者，他需要獲得這座島嶼，因為它「巨大」。

Doshi說： “這真的與中國和俄羅斯有關嗎？還是去提及中國和俄羅斯只不過是去掩蓋爭奪格陵蘭島背後的真正目的 - 一個基於虛榮心的帝國主義項目？”

              So, some insiders in the US have pointed that there is no current military threat from Russia or China to Greenland. Denmark has made clear that if the US wants to expand military access or greater cooperation on critical minerals in Greenland, they’re open to it. Apparently, Trump has failed to realize that to create chaos with its allies would weaken America’s ability to meet real global threats. I tend to believe that the reality behind Trump’s drive for Greenland is a personal imperial project based on vanity.

儘管特朗普發表了格陵蘭相關言論，但中國和俄羅斯並未對它有威脅（1/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Despite Trump’s Words, China and Russia Are Not Threatening Greenland (1/2)

U.S. and European officials say they are unaware of any intelligence that shows China and Russia are endangering the island, which is protected by the NATO security umbrella.

By Edward Wong - Edward Wong reports from Washington on U.S. foreign policy and is a former Beijing bureau chief for The Times who has a written a book about China.

Jan. 24, 2026

Updated 8:19 a.m. ET

Fourteen years ago, a Chinese icebreaker called the Snow Dragon made a long and surprising voyage.

Over three months in the summer, the scientific research vessel crossed from the Pacific to the Atlantic, traversing nearly 5,400 nautical miles of the Arctic Ocean, a first for China. The crew discovered that melting ice meant the ship could travel through the remote region without great difficulty, the expedition leader told reporters after docking in Iceland.

“To our astonishment,” said the leader, Huigen Yang, “most part of the Northern Sea Route is open.”

American and European officials took notice at the time and began keeping a close watch on China’s moves in the Arctic.

But while China has talked about expanding trade and access to shipping lanes and natural resources in the Arctic, it has developed only a small footprint there over the years. And even as China and Russia compete with the United States in many parts of the world, they do not present a threat to American interests in or near Greenland, say experts on those two superpowers and current and former U.S. officials, including intelligence analysts.

Those findings contrast sharply with assertions by President Trump, who has repeatedly cited security as the reason he wants to acquire Greenland. In a speech on Wednesday at an annual forum in Davos, Switzerland, he said Greenland was an “enormous, unsecured island” that was a “core national security interest of the United States of America.”

“It’s been our policy for hundreds of years to prevent outside threats from entering our hemisphere, and we’ve done it very successfully,” he added.

At a meeting on Jan. 14 in Washington, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio asked the Danish foreign minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, and the foreign minister of Greenland, Vivian Motzfeldt, whether Denmark had the resources to protect Greenland against any potential future threat from China, Mr. Rasmussen said in an interview.

However, Mr. Trump and his aides have not presented any intelligence that points to Chinese threats to Greenland.

China has increased its collaboration with Russia on maritime patrols and long-range bomber patrols in the vast Arctic region, said Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, the top NATO commander in Europe. But allied officials say there is no looming threat, and in any case Greenland falls under the NATO security umbrella.

If any problems were to emerge, the United States could expand its military presence in Greenland under a 1951 U.S.-Denmark pact. Denmark, which has sovereignty over the autonomous island, has said it would welcome more American troops. The United States had about 10,000 troops in Greenland during the Cold War, 50 times more than the 200 there now.

Although China does have a long-term goal of projecting naval power globally, it is focused on building up its military for deployment mainly in the Asia-Pacific region, where it is vying with the United States for dominance.

“Regarding China, there’s no military activity near Greenland,” said John Culver, a former intelligence analyst on China who briefed Mr. Trump in his first term. “If this administration had any intel about actual threats, it would be leaked.”

“I’ve never read anything that shows China has military designs on Greenland,” he added.

Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat who receives regular briefings from U.S. intelligence officials, expressed a similar view.

“Let me be clear: As vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, I’m closely tracking the facts, and there is no current military threat from Russia or China to Greenland,” he said on Thursday in a statement to The New York Times. “The only immediate threat right now is from the United States, with talk of taking territory from one of our closest allies.”

“Denmark has been clear: If we want expanded military access or greater cooperation on critical minerals, they’re open to it, but it must be done in partnership, not through intimidation and saber rattling,” Mr. Warner added. “When we create chaos with our allies, we weaken America’s ability to meet real global threats and make ourselves less safe.”

(to be continued)

Translation

儘管特朗普發表了格陵蘭相關言論，但中國和俄羅斯並未對它有威脅（1/2）

美國和歐洲官員表示，他們沒有收到任何情報顯示中國和俄羅斯正在危害這座受北約安全保護的島嶼

十四年前，一艘名為「雪龍號」的中國破冰船完成了一次漫長而令人驚訝的航行。

在夏季的三個月多時間裡，這艘科考船從太平洋橫渡到大西洋，航行了近5400海裡，穿越了北冰洋，這在當時是中國的首次航行。探險隊長在冰島靠岸後告訴記者，船員發現，冰層的融化意味著這艘船可以毫不費力地穿越這片偏遠地區。

領導人Huigen Yang說道:“令我們驚訝的是”，“北方航道的大部分路段都已可通行。”

當時，美國和歐洲官員注意到了這一點，並開始密切關注中國在北極的動向。

但儘管中國一直聲稱要擴大北極地區的貿易，並獲取航道和自然資源，但多年來，中國在北極的實際存在卻微乎其微。專家們，包括情報分析人士在內的現任和前任美國官員表示，即使中國和俄羅斯在世界許多地區與美國競爭，它們也不會對美國在格陵蘭島及其周邊地區的利益構成威脅。

這些結論與特朗普總統的說法截然相反。特朗普曾多次以安全為由，聲稱他想獲得格陵蘭島。在周三於瑞士達沃斯舉行的年度論壇上，他發表講話稱格陵蘭島是一個“巨大的、不安全的島嶼”，是“美國的核心國家安全利益”。

他補充道:「數百年來，我們的政策一直是阻止外部威脅進入西半球，而且我們在這方面做得非常成功」。

丹麥外交大臣Lars Lokke Rasmussen在接受在一個採訪時曾表示，1月14日在華盛頓舉行的一次會議上，副總統萬斯和國務卿盧比奧詢問Rasmussen和格陵蘭外交大臣Vivian Motzfeldt，丹麥是否有資源保護格陵蘭免受來自中國的任何潛在威脅。

然而，特朗普及其助手並未提供任何情報顯示中國對格陵蘭構成威脅。

北約歐洲最高指揮官Alexus G. Grynkewich將軍表示，中國加強了與俄羅斯在廣大的北極地區海上巡邏和遠程轟炸機巡邏的合作。但盟國官員表示，目前不存在迫在眉睫的威脅，而且格陵蘭無論如何都處於北約的安全保護傘之下。

如果出現任何問題，美國可以根據1951年美丹條約擴大在格陵蘭的軍事存在。丹麥對這座自治島嶼擁有主權，並表示歡迎更多美軍駐紮。冷戰期間，美國在格陵蘭駐紮了約1萬名士兵，是目前駐紮在那裡的200人的50倍。

儘管中國確實有在全球範圍內投射海軍力量的長期目標，但它目前專注於增強軍事實力，主要部署在亞太地區，與美國爭奪該地區的主導地位。

曾擔任中國問題情報分析師並在特朗普第一任期內向其匯報的John Culver說道: 「關於中國，它在格陵蘭附近沒有任何軍事活動」; 「如果本屆政府掌握任何關於實際威脅的情報，是會洩露出去了」。

他補充道:「我從未讀到任何表明中國對格陵蘭島有軍事野心的資料」。

維珍尼亞州民主黨參議員Mark Warner定期聽取美國情報官員的簡報，他也表達了類似的觀點。

他週四在給《紐約時報》的聲明中表示:「我要明確指出：作為參議院情報委員會副主席，我密切關注著事實，目前俄羅斯或中國對格陵蘭島沒有構成任何軍事威脅」; 「目前唯一迫在眉睫的威脅來自美國，他們揚言要從我們最親密的盟友之一手中奪取領土」。

Warner 補充道: 「丹麥已經明確表示：如果我們想要擴大軍事准入或在關鍵礦產方面加強合作，他們持開放態度，但這必須透過夥伴關係來實現，而不是透過恐嚇和武力威脅」; 「當我們與盟友製造混亂時，這削弱了美國應對真正全球威脅的能力，也讓我們自身變得更加不安全」。

（待續）

Department Store Sales Declined for the First Time in Five Years Last Year, Possibly Due to China's Impact

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

デパート 去年1年間の売り上げ5年ぶりのマイナス 中国影響か

2026年1月23日午後7時05分

小売業

全国のデパートの去年1年間の売り上げは、前の年を1.5％下回り、5年ぶりのマイナスとなりました。中国政府が日本への渡航自粛を呼びかけたことで、免税品の売り上げが大きく減ったことなどが影響したとみられます。

日本百貨店協会の発表によりますと、全国のデパートの去年1年間の売り上げは5兆6754億円と、前の年を1.5％下回り、5年ぶりのマイナスとなりました。

外国人旅行者向けの免税品の売り上げが5667億円と、前の年より12.7％減ったことが主な要因で、中国政府が日本への渡航自粛を呼びかけたことが影響したとみられます。

中国人旅行客は先月も客数と売り上げともに前の年の同じ月に比べておよそ4割減少しています。 

日本百貨店協会の西阪義晴専務理事は「中国からの航空便も減少しているので、春節の時期も含めて当面、デパートへの影響は続くのではないか」と話していました。

Translation

Department Store Sales Declined for the First Time in Five Years Last Year, Possibly Due to China's Impact

Nationwide sales at department stores across Japan fell 1.5% last year, the first decline in five years.  Chinese government's called for people to refrain from traveling to Japan appeared to have had an impact including a significant drop in sales of duty-free goods.

According to the Japan Department Stores Association, sales at department stores nationwide last year totaled 5.6754 trillion yen, down 1.5% from the previous year and the first decline in five years.

This was primarily due to sales of duty-free goods to foreign tourists falling 12.7% to 566.7 billion yen, likely due to the Chinese government's call for people to refrain from traveling to Japan.

Regarding Chinese tourists last month, both in terms of customer numbers and sales, also fell by approximately 40% compared to the same month last year.

Yoshiharu Nishizaka (西阪義晴), executive director of the Japan Department Stores Association, said, "With the number of flights from China also decreasing, the impact on department stores is likely to continue for the time being, including the Chinese New Year period."

              So, the nationwide sales at department stores across Japan fell 1.5% last year, probably due to Chinese government's call for people to refrain from traveling to Japan. It seems that Japan is ready to embrace the impact.

冰川融化可能會提升格陵蘭島的價值。特朗普的爭奪或許只是個開始

Recently The Washing Post reported the following:

Melting ice may raise Greenland’s value. Trump’s fight may be just the start.

Trump has said he wants the territory because of its strategic location. Maps show how a melting Arctic is affecting geopolitics.

18 Jan 2026 at 3:00 a.m. EST

By Ruby Mellen and John Muyskens

The Arctic is warming around four times faster than the rest of the globe, exposing natural resources, opening up potential shipping routes and prompting an increase in activity among military powers. The changing landscape has created a region ripe for opportunity — and potential conflict — factors that may play a role in President Donald Trump’s sudden quest to obtain Greenland.

Though he has called climate change a “hoax,” part of the value Trump has described in the Danish autonomous territory’s location is a result of the environmental shifts.

“It’s partly the melting of sea ice making it more attractive for the economic development that he’d pursue in Greenland,” said Sherri Goodman, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and the former deputy undersecretary of defense for environmental security.

Trump has said he wants the territory because of its strategic location and untapped natural resources, including diamonds, lithium and copper.

The president announced tariffs Saturday on countries that have sent troops to Greenland in recent days. Talks this week between the foreign ministers of Greenland and Denmark, and U.S. officials ended in “fundamental disagreement” according to Denmark’s top diplomat, Lars Lokke Rasmussen.

The prospect of the United States using military force against the NATO ally, as Trump has floated, could end the decades-old defense pact. His bid for the territory is one of the most concrete examples of how climate change is influencing geopolitics. As the northernmost parts of our planet continue to warm, the effects could change the ways the international community operates.

“The freeing of the Arctic from sea ice, at least seasonally, will create an entirely new theater for economic and security competition,” said Joseph Majkut, the director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “And while we’ve known that is going to be the case for some time, it seems we’re at an inflection point.”

Arctic sea ice typically peaks in March, as ice forms and spreads through the depth of winter, before beginning to melt to its lowest extent, usually in September. Over approximately the past five decades, changes in Arctic ice cover have revealed pathways for shipping and commerce, as parts of the region stay ice-free for longer. There’s the northern sea route along Russia’s coast, and the northwest passage along northern Canada. Analysts note icebreakers, or vessels with the capability to chomp through thinning ice, have begun passing through a “central route,” over the top of the Arctic.

In October, a Chinese container ship used the northern sea route to shave about 20 days off its typical journey through the Suez Canal to Europe.

If the region becomes ice-free in future summers, it could reshape global trade. That reality is mere decades away, though exact predictions depend on whom you ask and how quickly the planet warms.

A 2021 study in Nature modeled future open-water periods based off different warming thresholds. It found that if the planet warms 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1850-1900 average, that period lengthens by 63 days, while if the planet warms 3.5 degrees (6.3 degrees Fahrenheit) above the average, nearly the entire Arctic would have at least three months of open water each year.

But it’s hard to predict the exact timeline of the rate of melting, and either way, continued escalations or jockeying won’t really depend on the pace of warming, Majkut said.

They also may be underestimating the hazards of a melting Arctic, scientists warn. Regardless of when an ice-free summer comes, it will remain an extreme environment.

“It’s going to be a long time before we’re arguing over beachfront property or protecting people from crocodiles up there,” Majkut said.

Without sea ice, communities could lose crucial protection, said Zack Labe, a climate scientist who studies regional climate risks.

“Typically, the ice would act as a buffer for high wind and waves,” he said, especially in the fall when the region experiences typhoons in the Pacific that bring huge swells. That ice protects people against erosion and flooding.

The melting arctic could produce unpredictable ocean conditions, like changes in the wind and the waves. And if there is an emergency, there are few accessible ports.

“It could become more hazardous for ships to go into these areas rather than less,” said Labe.

While Trump is pursuing Greenland, he hasn’t publicly acknowledged climate change’s role in what he perceives to be its value. A staunch climate change denier, the president has moved to cut funding to many climate initiatives including Arctic research.

But to some, that could be bad geopolitical strategy.

“Climate change is a significant national security risk,” said Goodman. “The openings of sea lanes, the changing ice conditions, are contributing to the intense geopolitical situations we’re experiencing.”

Translation

冰川融化可能會提升格陵蘭島的價值。特朗普的爭奪或許只是個開始

特朗普曾表示，他想要這片領土是因為其戰略位置。地圖顯示了北極冰川融化如何影響地緣政治。

北極的升溫速度大約是全球其他地區的四倍，這使得自然資源得以暴露，開闢了潛在的航運路線，並促使軍事強國的活動日益頻繁。不斷變化的地形造就了一個充滿機會 - 以及潛在衝突 - 的地區，這些因素可能在驅使特朗普總統突然尋求獲得格陵蘭島。

儘管特朗普稱氣候變遷是“騙局”，但他所描述的這片丹麥自治領土的價值，部分原因正是環境變遷的結果。

大西洋理事會傑出研究員、前國防部負責環境安全的副部長Sherri Goodman說道:「部分原因是海冰融化使得格陵蘭島對特朗普想要在那裡推行的經濟發展更具吸引力」。

特朗普曾表示，他想要這片領土是因為其戰略位置和尚未開發的自然資源，包括鑽石、鋰和銅。

美國總統週六宣佈對近日派兵到格陵蘭島的國家徵收關稅。據丹麥外交大臣Lars Lokke Rasmussen稱，格陵蘭和丹麥外長與美國官員本週的會談以「根本分歧」告終。

正如特朗普所暗示的那樣，美國可能對這個北約盟國動用武力，這可能會終結北約這已有數十年歷史的國防條約。他對這片領土的覬覦是氣候變遷如何影響地緣政治最具體的例子之一。隨著地球最北端持續變暖，其影響可能會改變國際社會的運作方式。

戰略與國際研究中心能源安全與氣候變遷計劃主任Joseph Majkut表示:「北極海冰的消融，至少在季節性方面，將為經濟和安全競爭創造一個全新的舞台」; 「雖然我們早就知道這種情況會發生，但現在看來，我們正處於一個轉捩點」。

北極海冰通常在3月達到峰值，冰層在隆冬時節形成並持續擴展，之後開始融化，通常在9月達到最低點。在過去大約50年中，北極冰蓋的變化為航運和貿易開闢了新的通道，因為該地區部分區域的無冰期延長了，例如沿著俄羅斯海岸的北方航道和沿著加拿大北部的西北航道。分析家指出，破冰船，或那些能夠破開逐漸變薄冰層的船隻，已經開始沿著北極上空的「中央航線」航行。

10月份，一艘中國貨櫃船利用北方海路，比通常經由蘇伊士運河前往歐洲的航程節省了約20天。

如果該地區未來夏季完全無冰，可能會重塑全球貿易格局。這種情況距離我們只有幾十年的時間，但具體預測取決於你問的是誰以及地球暖化的速度。

2021年發表在《自然》雜誌上的一項研究基於不同的升溫閾值，模擬了未來無冰期。研究發現，如果地球溫度比1850-1900年的平均水平升高2攝氏度（3.6華氏度），無冰期將延長63天；而如果地球溫度比平均水平升高3.5攝氏度（6.3華氏度），幾乎整個北極每年至少會有三個月的無冰期。

但Majkut表示，冰川融化的具體速度難以預測，而且無論如何，持續的衝突升級或爭奪實際上並不取決於全球暖化的速度。

科學家警告說，他們可能低估了北極冰川融化的危害。無論何時迎來無冰的夏季，北極仍將是一個極具挑戰的環境。

Majkut特說： “我們還有很長時間才會爭論那裡的海灘房產，或者保護在那裡的人免遭鱷魚襲擊。”

研究區域氣候風險的氣候科學家Zack Labe表示，如果沒有海冰，社區可能會失去至關重要的保護。

他說：「通常情況下，冰層可以緩衝強風和巨浪」;尤其是在秋季，太平洋颱風會帶來巨浪。冰層可以保護人們免受侵蝕和洪水的侵襲。

北極冰川融化可能會導致難以預測的海洋狀況，例如風向和海浪的變化。如果發生緊急情況，可用的港口寥寥無幾。

Labe說: 「船舶進入這些區域的風險可能會增加，而不是降低」。

儘管特朗普對格陵蘭島虎視眈眈，但他並未公開承認氣候變遷在他所認為的格陵蘭島價值中所扮演的角色。作為一位堅定的氣候變遷否認者，這位總統已經著手削減許多氣候倡議的資金, 包括北極研究。

但對某些人來說，這可能是一項糟糕的地緣政治策略。

Goodman說: 「氣候變遷是一項重大的國家安全風險」; 「海上航道的開通和冰情的變化，加劇了我們目前所面臨的地緣政治緊張局勢」。

So, the Arctic is warming and exposing natural resources, opening up potential shipping routes and prompting an increase in activity among military powers. While Trump is pursuing Greenland, he hasn’t publicly acknowledged climate change’s role in what he perceives to be its value. As a staunch climate change denier, the president has even cut funding to many climate initiatives including Arctic research. Apparently, the openings of sea lanes and the changing ice conditions are contributing to the intense geopolitical situations.

U.S. Consumer Price Index for December: Up 2.7% Year-over-Year, Same as Previous Month

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

米 12月の消費者物価指数 前年同月比2.7％の上昇 前月と同水準

2026年1月13日午後10時58分

(2026年1月14日午前0時27分更新)

アメリカ

円相場や株価に影響を及ぼすアメリカの去年12月の消費者物価指数が発表され、前の年の同じ月と比べて2.7％の上昇となりました。これは前の月と同じ水準で、トランプ政権の関税措置などを背景にした物価の上昇傾向に歯止めがかかっていることが示された形です。

アメリカ労働省が13日に発表した去年12月の消費者物価指数は、前の年の同じ月と比べて2.7％の上昇となりました。

これは市場の予想と同じ水準で、前の月と横ばいでした。

項目別ではガス代が10.8％、電気代が6.7％、外食費が4.1％それぞれ上昇した一方、ガソリン価格は3.4％下落しました。

また、変動の大きい食品やエネルギーを除いたいわゆるコアの物価指数は、前の年の同じ月と比べて2.6％の上昇で、こちらも前の月と同じ水準でした。

アメリカではトランプ政権の関税措置などを背景に去年5月から秋にかけてインフレ率の上昇傾向が続いていましたが、こうした傾向に歯止めがかかっていることが示された形です。

ただ、今後の利下げをめぐってはFRB＝連邦準備制度理事会のパウエル議長が慎重に判断していく考えを示していることなどから、金融市場ではFRBが今月下旬に開く会合で政策金利を据え置くとの見方が広がっています。

Translation

U.S. Consumer Price Index for December: Up 2.7% Year-over-Year, Same as Previous Month

U.S.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index for December last year which could influence the yen exchange rate and stock prices was released, it showed a 2.7% increase compared to the same month last year. This was the same level as the previous month, indicating that the upward trend in prices due to the Trump administration's tariff measures and other factors had come to a halt.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced on the 13th that the Consumer Price Index for December last year rose 2.7% compared to the same month last year.

This was in line with market expectations and remained at the same level as the previous month.

By item, gas prices increased 10.8%, electricity prices increased 6.7%, and dining out costs increased 4.1%, while gasoline prices fell 3.4%.

Additionally, the so-called core price index which excluded volatile food and energy prices had risen 2.6% compared to the same month last year. It also remained at the same level as the previous month.

In the US, the inflation rate had been on an upward trend from May to autumn of last year due to factors such as the Trump administration's tariffs, but this index showed that the trend was now being halted.

However, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicating that he intended to make careful decisions regarding future interest rate cuts, there was a growing view in financial markets that the Fed would keep its policy interest rate unchanged at its meeting later this month.

So, the U.S. Consumer Price Index indicates that the upward trend in prices due to the Trump administration's tariff measures and other factors has come to a halt. Probably the Fed will keep its policy interest rate unchanged at its meeting later this month. I am wondering how will Trump react to that.

US Boy Commits Suicide Due to "Conversational AI Addiction": Mother Reaches a Settlement with Developer and Others

 Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

米 “対話型AI依存”で少年自殺 母親と開発企業など和解へ

2026年1月10日午後3時03分

生成AI・人工知能

アメリカで14歳の少年がアニメなどのキャラクターに似たAIと対話できるアプリの利用が原因で自殺したとして、母親が開発したAI企業などを訴えていた裁判で、双方が和解の合意にいたったことが分かりました。

これは、アメリカ南部フロリダ州で、14歳の少年の母親が息子が自殺をしたのはアニメなどのキャラクターに似た対話型AIへの依存で現実世界で生きる気力を失ったからだとして、おととし（2024年）10月、開発した企業「キャラクター・ドットAI」と技術的に関わりがあるとされる「グーグル」などを訴えたものです。

今月7日に裁判所へ提出された文書によりますと、「双方のすべての請求を解決するため、原則として調停による和解に合意した」と記され、双方が和解の合意にいたったことが分かりました。

和解の詳細な内容は明らかにされていません。

「キャラクター・ドットAI」と母親側の弁護士は、それぞれ、NHKの取材に対し、「コメントを控える」としています。

また、現地メディアによりますと、この事案のほかに複数の州で、別の家族らが「キャラクター・ドットAI」などを訴えていた裁判でも、和解の合意にいたったとしています。

対話型AIをめぐっては、西部カリフォルニア州で、16歳の高校生が自殺したのは生成AI「ChatGPT」との対話が影響したとして、生徒の両親が、開発したAI企業などに訴えを起こすなど、遺族らが裁判を起こすケースが相次いでいて、企業側の安全対策をめぐり大きな議論を呼んでいます。

Translation

US Boy Commits Suicide Due to "Conversational AI Addiction": Mother Reaches a Settlement with Developer and Others

Generative AI/Artificial Intelligence

A lawsuit was filed in the US which claimed that a 14-year-old boy had committed suicide after using an app that allowed him to interact with AI resembling anime and other characters. The mother sued the AI ​​company that developed it together with other parties; it was learned that the two parties had reached a settlement agreement.

This was a case in Florida in the southern United States, the mother of a 14-year-old boy filed a lawsuit in October of 2024 to claim that her son had committed suicide because he became dependent on interactive AI that resembled characters from anime and other sources, and lost the will to live in the real world. She sued the company "Character AI" that developed it, and also "Google" which was said to be technically involved.

According to court documents filed on the 7th of this month, "The parties have agreed in principle to a mediation settlement in order to resolve all claims on both sides," indicating that the two parties had reached a settlement agreement.

Details of the settlement had not been disclosed.

When contacted by NHK, Character AI and the lawyer representing the mother both declined to comment.

In addition to this case, local media reported that settlement agreements had been reached in lawsuits filed by other families in multiple states against Character AI and other companies.

Regarding conversational AI, a series of lawsuits by bereaved families had been filed, including one in the western state in California in which the parents of a 16-year-old high school student sued the AI ​​company that developed it, claiming that conversations with the generative AI ChatGPT were the influence of his suicide, sparking a great deal of debate about the safety measures companies should take.

              So, in a lawsuit filed in the US, the mother of a 14-year-old boy claimed that his son committed suicide after using an app that allowed him to interact with AI anime and other characters. The mother successfully sued the AI company that developed the app. Apparently, safety measures in AI are needed to protect the teens.

Note:

1. character.ai (also known as c.ai, char.ai or Character AI) is a generative AI chatbot service where users can engage in conversations with customizable characters. It was designed by the developers of Google LaMDA, Noam Shazeer and Daniel de Freitas. (Wikipedia)

U.S. December Employment Statistics: Employment Increased 50,000 from Previous Month, But Below Market Expectations

 Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

米 12月雇用統計 就業者は前月比5万人増も市場予想下回る

2026年1月9日午後11時13分

(2026年1月9日午後11時54分更新)

アメリカ

円相場や株価に影響を及ぼすアメリカの雇用統計が発表され、先月の農業分野以外の就業者は、前の月から5万人増加しましたが、市場予想を下回りました。一方、失業率は前の月と比べて0.1ポイント改善し、4.4％でした。

アメリカ労働省が9日、発表した先月の雇用統計によりますと、景気の動向を敏感に示す農業分野以外の就業者は、前の月から5万人増加しましたが市場の予想を下回りました。

また、去年10月分のデータが下方修正され、前の月と比べて10万5000人の減少から17万3000人の減少になりました。

一方、先月の失業率は、0.1ポイント改善し、4.4％でした。

失業率は去年7月以降、上昇傾向が続いていましたが、この傾向にひとまず歯止めがかかりました。

雇用統計はFRB＝連邦準備制度理事会が金融政策を判断するうえで重要な指標で、金融市場ではFRBのパウエル議長が今後の利下げは慎重に判断していく考えを示していることなどから、今月下旬に開く会合で金利を据え置くとの見方が広がっています。

FRBが、今回の雇用統計などを踏まえて減速傾向と指摘されている雇用情勢をどう判断するかが焦点となります。

Translation

U.S. December Employment Statistics: Employment Increased 50,000 from Previous Month, But Below Market Expectations

January 9, 2026, 11:13 PM

(Updated January 9, 2026, 11:54 PM)

U.S.

The U.S. employment statistics which affected the yen and stock prices had been released. Last month's non-agricultural employment increased by 50,000 from the previous month, but below market expectations. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate improved 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%.

According to last month's employment statistics released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 9th, non-agricultural employment, a sensitive indicator of economic trends, increased by 50,000 from the previous month, but below market expectations.

Additionally, data for October last year was revised downward, from a decrease of 105,000 from the previous month to a decrease of 173,000.

Meanwhile, last month's unemployment rate improved 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%.

The unemployment rate had been on an upward trend since July of last year, but this trend has now been halted for the time being.

Employment statistics were an important indicator used by the Federal Reserve when deciding on monetary policy, and with Fed Chairman Powell indicating that he would be cautious about future interest rate cuts, there was a widespread view in financial markets that interest rates could remain unchanged at their meeting later this month.

The focus would be on how the Fed was going to assess the employment situation, which had been noted to be slowing, in light of the latest employment statistics and other factors.

              So, the U.S. employment statistics which shows that last month's non-agricultural employment had increased by 50,000 from the previous month yet below market expectations. Apparently, people will now focus on how the Fed is going to judge the employment situation when deciding whether there should be a cut in the interest rate.