Anthropic 的 IPO 招股說明書描繪了充滿希望與風險的未來（1/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Anthropic’s I.P.O. Prospectus Spells Out a Future of Promise and Peril (1/2)

The A.I. company took great pains to describe the many benefits that can come from using its Claude chatbot and technology, but also offered up a heavy dose of gloom.

By Mike Isaac - Mike Isaac covers Silicon Valley and artificial intelligence from San Francisco.

Oct. 26, 2026

For years, Dario Amodei, a founder of the start-up Anthropic, has been painted as the pre-eminent doomsayer of artificial intelligence, often making sweeping statements about how the technology could wreak havoc on the world.

On Monday, as Dr. Amodei presented his company’s paperwork for what could be the biggest ever initial public offering on Wall Street, he painted a more nuanced picture: Even with its many risks, A.I. has the potential to bring about untold benefits to humanity.

From the very top of the founder’s letter — a kind of mission statement typical of many I.P.O. prospectuses — Dr. Amodei and his six co-founders set the stakes.

“We believe that AI is one of the most consequential technologies in human history.”

This is a view on which Dr. Amodei has long been consistent. Since Anthropic’s earliest days, he has argued that the technology has the capacity to profoundly change the world. Often, Dr. Amodei would harp on the negative consequences those changes may bring. Lately, he has more frequently been playing up some of the benefits.

It is in line with a change in tone Anthropic has recently pitched to its investors. Across the industry and even among Anthropic’s backers is a view that Dr. Amodei’s vocal concerns about the technology have overshadowed what many believe are its upsides — an important sales pitch as the company seeks to raise billions on the stock market.

In closed-door meetings, the company has said it plans to emphasize more of the positive aspects of A.I., from increased productivity for workers to curing the world’s worst ailments.

“First, we believe that AI will profoundly accelerate the rate of progress in biology and medicine, potentially curing diseases that have plagued humanity for millennia, including cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, heart disease, rare genetic diseases, and the major infectious diseases.”

“It could bring about a sustained acceleration in economic growth, with all the benefits for human wellbeing that growth can bring.”

Anthropic is accused of focusing on economic disruption rather than benefit. Specifically, critics argue, the company more often stresses monumental job loss while peers focus on the many ways the technology will empower workers. In his letter, Dr. Amodei allows for a future of unprecedented growth, which could bring about worldwide prosperity.

He goes on to cite examples such as giving people access to the knowledge and skills of a lawyer, an accountant or a farmer.

“More broadly, AI can help to strengthen markets where they are currently weak. Mobile phones did this in the developing world in the 2000s, giving people access to critical information on prices that allowed trade to flow.”

(to be continued)

Translation

Anthropic 的 IPO 招股說明書描繪了充滿希望與風險的未來（1/2）

這家人工智能公司不遺餘力地描述了使用其 Claude 聊天機器人和技術所能帶來的諸多好處，但同時也充斥著悲觀的論調

多年來，初創公司 Anthropic 的創辦人 Dario Amodei 一直被視為人工智能領域最主要的悲觀論者，他經常發表一些關於這項技術將如何為世界帶來災難的言論。

週一，當 Amodei 博士提交公司文件，準備進行可能成為華爾街有史以來規模最大的首次公開發行 (IPO) 時，他描繪了一幅更為細緻的圖景：即使存在諸多風險，人工智能也有可能為人類帶來難以估量的益處。

在創始人信件的開頭 - 這相當於許多IPO招股說明書中的使命宣言 - Amodei博士和他的六位聯合創始人就明確了利害關係及風險。

“我們相信人工智能是人類歷史上最具影響力的技術之一。”

Amodei博士一直以來都堅持這一看。自Anthropic公司成立之初，他就認為這項技術有能力深刻地改變世界。Amodei博士經常強調這些改變可能帶來的負面影響。但最近，他更多強調了人工智能的益處。

這與Anthropic公司近期向投資人宣傳的語氣轉變相符。整個產業乃至Anthropic的投資者普遍認為，Amodei博士對這項技術的擔憂掩蓋了許多人認為它具有的優勢 - 而這些優勢對於該公司在股市籌集數十億美元的融資至關重要。

該公司在閉門會議上表示，計劃更加強調人工智能的正面方面，從提高員工生產力到治癒世界上最嚴重的疾病。

“首先，我們相信人工智能將極大地加速生物學和醫學的發展，有可能治愈困擾人類數千年的疾病，包括癌症、阿茲海默症、心臟病、罕見遺傳病和主要傳染病。”

“它能夠帶來經濟的持續增長，以及增長所能帶來的所有人類福祉。”

Anthropico公司被指責過度關注經濟衝擊而非益處。批評者指出，該公司更常強調人工智能將導致大量失業，而同業則更關注這項技術將如何提升勞工自主權。Amodei博士在信中展望了人工智能帶來的前所未有的成長前景，並認為這將為全球帶來繁榮。

他也舉例說明，例如讓人們獲得律師、會計師或農民的知識和技能。

“更廣泛地說，人工智能可以幫助強化目前疲軟的市場。 2000 年代，行無線電話在發展中國家就發揮了這樣的作用，使人們能夠獲取關鍵的價格訊息，從而令貿易流通。”

（待續）

Barack Obama said: "Old men are afraid of death and insignificance"

 Recently I saw the following picture in FB that I found interesting:

 

Barack Obama did say that. He made this statement during a public conversation with British historian David Olusoga at the O2 Arena in London on September 24, 2025. 

His exact quote from the event was: “It’s fair to say that 80% of the world's problems involve old men hanging on, who are afraid of death and insignificance, and they won't let go. They build pyramids, and they put their names on everything. They get very anxious about it." (Google)

Anthropic上市的意義何在？幾乎關乎一切。 (2/2)

 What’s Riding on Anthropic’s Market Debut? Nearly Everything. (2/2)

Anthropic sits atop a pyramid of business partners and suppliers, making it a barometer of the broader economy. Its initial public offering will have widespread implications.

By Erin Griffith and Lauren Hirsch - Erin Griffith reported from San Francisco and Lauren Hirsch from New York.

Oct. 26, 2026, 5:02 a.m. ET

(continue)

This month, Anthropic gathered investors at its San Francisco headquarters to present its financial performance and growth plans. By most measures, its numbers were astounding. The company’s revenue hit $16.8 billion in the third quarter, up 45 percent from the prior quarter. But investors compared that with even faster growth of 141 percent in the second quarter.

How Anthropic explains that slowdown will be important. If it was because the company lost market share to OpenAI or companies using cheaper open-source A.I. models — the technology that powers chatbots and other tools that generate videos, text and computer code — that means the overall demand for A.I. services remains healthy. If Anthropic’s growth slowed because the entire market saw less demand for A.I. products, the reaction could be more dramatic.

Anthropic declined to comment.

For the past year, Anthropic has been Silicon Valley’s hottest company, thanks partly to Claude Code, the service that transformed how software engineers write code. The company’s revenue soared, causing private market investors to drive up its valuation to $965 billion, topping OpenAI.

To meet the demand for its A.I. products, Anthropic struck deals worth hundreds of billions to lease computing power from Google, Amazon and Microsoft. It has also spent on chips from Nvidia and data centers from Nscale and others. The companies serving Anthropic are, in turn, shelling out money to their suppliers.

But over the summer, some Anthropic customers concluded they were spending too much on “tokens,” or units of data processed and generated by A.I. systems. They sought cheaper options. Meta, one of Anthropic’s largest customers, projected this year that it would spend as much as $10 billion a year on the company’s technology, but pulled back as it switched to other A.I. models.

Stocks of some A.I. companies that went public this year have wilted. Shares of Cerebras, a Silicon Valley maker of A.I. chips, have fallen roughly 40 percent from their offering price in May. Shares of Accelevation, an A.I. infrastructure company, are trading about a third lower than their $18 offering price in September. Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which went public in June, has also fallen far from its peak, though it remains roughly 9 percent above its offering price.

Against this backdrop, the market for initial public offerings has slowed. Holtec, which provides nuclear energy to the A.I. sector, withdrew its listing last month. SB Energy, a data center company controlled by SoftBank, one of OpenAI’s biggest backers, and Aggreko, a power company that works with data centers, have delayed their plans to go public.

A.I. infrastructure is a “dominant theme” of the I.P.O. market this year, said Matthew Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, which tracks public listings. “It’s also been among the hardest hit by the sell-off these past few weeks.”

Bankers have warned companies that they may not get the valuations they were contemplating just two months ago. In an earnings call this month, David Solomon, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, said that while the market for public offerings was “wide open,” companies seeking valuations close to those discussed this summer might choose to wait.

“Things got a little bit softer in September,” he said.

Anthropic’s revenue numbers have added to the doubts. The company had been expected to go public at a valuation as high as $2 trillion. But after seeing the slowing growth and the market doldrums, some investors have started discussing a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $1.7 trillion, according to one person with knowledge of the matter.

A.I. executives have been trying to provide reassurance. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which supplies chips to the A.I. sector, saw “no ceiling” to its profits, its chief executive, C.C. Wei, said this month.

Late last week, amid growing concerns about A.I. spending, the markets fell further. The tech-heavy Nasdaq experienced its largest drop since June.

Translation

Anthropic上市的意義何在？幾乎關乎一切。 (2/2)

Anthropic 位於由商業夥伴和供應商組成的金字塔頂端，使其成為整體經濟的晴雨表。其首次公開發行 (IPO)將產生廣泛的影響

（繼續）

本月，Anthropic 在舊金山總部召集投資者，展示了其財務表現和成長計劃。從大多數指標來看，其業績令人矚目。該公司第三季營收達168億美元，較上一季成長45%。但投資者將其與第二季141%[與第一季比]的更快成長率進行了比較。

Anthropic 如何解釋成長放緩至關重要。如果是因為該公司市場份額被 OpenAI 或其他使用更便宜的開源AI模型（即驅動聊天機器人和其他生成短片、文字和電腦程式碼的工具的技術）的公司蠶食，那就意味著市場對AI服務的整體需求仍然旺盛。但如果 Anthropic 的成長放緩是因為整個市場對AI產品的需求下降，那麼市場反應可能會更加劇烈。

Anthropic 拒絕置評。

過去一年，Anthropic 一直是矽谷最炙手可熱的公司，這在一定程度上要歸功於 Claude Code，這項服務徹底改變了軟件工程師編寫程式碼的方式。該公司營收飆升，促使私募市場投資者將其估值推高至9,650億美元，超過了OpenAI。

為了滿足對其人工智能產品的需求，Anthropic 與 Google、亞馬遜和微軟達成了價值數千億美元的協議，租賃運算能力。它還斥巨資購買了英偉達的晶片以及 Nscale 等公司的數據庫。而為Anthropic 提供服務的公司，亦要沒有選擇地增加向自己供應商所付出開支。

但今年夏天，一些 Anthropic 的客戶意識到他們在「代幣」(tokens)（即人工智能系統處理和產生的數據單位）上的支出過高，於是開始尋求更經濟的選擇。 Anthropic 最大的客戶之一 Meta今年曾預計每年將在該公司的技術上花費高達100億美元，但隨著轉向其他人工智能模型，該公司減少了這筆支出。

今年一些上市的人工智能公司的股價大幅下跌。矽谷人工智能晶片製造商Cerebras的股價較5月的發行價下跌了約40%。人工智能基礎設施公司 Accelevation 的股價較9月18美元的發行價下跌了約三分之一。馬斯克的 SpaceX 公司於6月上市，股價也遠低於峰值，但仍比發行價高出約9%。

在此背景下，首次公開募股（IPO）市場放緩。為人工智能提供核能的Holtec公司也未能倖免。上個月，一些公司撤回了上市計劃。數據中心公司 SB Energy（由 OpenAI 最大的支持者之一軟銀控股）和為數據中心提供電力服務的公司 Aggreko 都推遲了上市計劃。

追蹤上市的公司 Renaissance Capital 高級策略師 Matthew Kennedy 表示，人工智能基礎設施是今年IPO市場的「主導主題」。 “它也是最受過去幾週拋售衝擊的行業之一。”

銀行家警告各公司，它們可能無法獲得兩個月前預期的估值。高盛首席執行官 David Solomon 在本月的財報電話會議上表示，儘管 IPO 市場 “開放” ，但那些尋求接近今年夏天討論的估值的公司可能會選擇等待一會。

他說:「9月市場行情有所回落」。

Anthropic 的營收數據也加劇了人們的疑慮。先前市場預期該公司上市時的估值高達2兆美元。但據一位知情人士透露，鑑於增長放緩和市場低迷，一些投資者已開始討論估值在1.5兆至1.7兆美元。

人工智能領域的高階主管一直在努力安撫市場情緒。為人工智能產業供應晶片的台積電執行長C.C. Wei 本月表示，該公司利潤「沒有上限」。

上週的較後時候，由於對人工智能支出的擔憂日益加劇，市場進一步下跌。以科技股為主的Nasdaq指數經歷了自6月以來最大的單日跌幅。

So.  Anthropic’s going public will be a litmus test for the economy, with trillions of dollars at stake. Anthropic is a key player in the A.I. industry. It is valued in the private markets at nearly $1 trillion and will become one of the world’s biggest public companies. Anthropic and OpenAI are sitting at the top in the world of AI business and believe that demands for A.I. products will keep growing. Apparently, the stakes are getting higher and higher.

Note:

1. "Shell out" is an English idiom that means to pay or spend a large amount of money, often reluctantly or unexpectedly. In a financial context, it means you are forced to open your wallet or bank account to hand over cash. In tone, it usually carries a slightly negative or begrudging connotation. People typically use "shell out" when they feel something is expensive or when they have no choice but to pay. (Google)

Anthropic上市的意義何在？幾乎關乎一切（1/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

What’s Riding on Anthropic’s Market Debut? Nearly Everything. (1/2)

Anthropic sits atop a pyramid of business partners and suppliers, making it a barometer of the broader economy. Its initial public offering will have widespread implications.

By Erin Griffith and Lauren Hirsch - Erin Griffith reported from San Francisco and Lauren Hirsch from New York.

Oct. 26, 2026, 5:02 a.m. ET

When Anthropic goes public as soon as next month, its initial offering will be more than just a coming-out party for the artificial intelligence company. It will also be a litmus test for the economy, with trillions of dollars at stake.

Anthropic, which makes the Claude chatbot, is a tent pole of the A.I. industry. Valued in the private markets at nearly $1 trillion and backed by more than $130 billion in funding, it could raise $100 billion in its offering and promptly become one of the world’s biggest public companies. But the stakes are even higher than that.

Anthropic and OpenAI, its chief rival, sit atop a pyramid of business partners and suppliers — infrastructure providers, chipmakers, energy companies and A.I. start-ups — that have all spent heavily over the last four years because they believe demand for A.I. products will keep growing.

Anthropic’s listing will provide the first in-depth look at the health of a key business underlying the A.I. boom — and will be a test of its durability. Is there unending appetite for A.I. services to justify the spending on chips, data centers and other infrastructure? Or will Anthropic’s performance show that there are limits?

“For the market, it’s a bellwether,” said Umesh Padval, an investor at Seligman Ventures, who has worked in tech for nearly 40 years.

If Anthropic disappoints in its public debut, that could hurt investor confidence and cascade into a wider market sell-off, casting doubts on how much longer the A.I. boom can go. A successful offering could lift the market and pave the way for more A.I. companies to go public.

Stock markets are already on edge, with technology stocks broadly falling this month, led by a sell-off in the companies that design and produce the computer chips that power A.I. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is in a bear market, defined as a decline of 20 percent or more from a recent high and a sign of significant investor angst, after falling 26 percent from its June peak.

Over the last couple of weeks, Microsoft canceled a deal with Nscale, a provider of data centers. A report from the research firm Gartner predicted that 80 percent of “neoclouds,” the companies that provide data and computing power for A.I. firms, could be forced out of business. And Ken Griffin, the billionaire owner of the hedge fund Citadel, said A.I. investors were “almost certainly” in a bubble.

Those negative signals have added to fears about the huge piles of money being spent on A.I. infrastructure. Amazon, Meta, Google and Microsoft have said they plan to spend at least $740 billion on A.I. infrastructure, including data centers, this year. Private market investors have poured $1.1 trillion into Anthropic, OpenAI and other A.I. companies since 2022, according to PitchBook, which tracks investments.

As spending and investment have risen in private markets, public investments have grown, too, increasing the stock market’s reliance on the performance of the A.I. industry. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are worth more than $1 trillion together, with eight of them being tech companies. Combined, the top 10 account for over 40 percent of the index, up from less than 20 percent a decade ago.

When Anthropic is added to the index, it is likely to displace either Berkshire Hathaway or Eli Lilly, the only non-tech companies with valuations above $1 trillion, from the top 10.

“There is a lot riding on this one,” said Brad Gastwirth, the global head of research and market intelligence at Circular Technology, a supply chain services firm. “If it goes bad, it’s going to bring down the market.”

(to be continued)

Translation

Anthropic上市的意義何在？幾乎關乎一切（1/2）

Anthropic 位於由商業夥伴和供應商組成的金字塔頂端，使其成為整體經濟的晴雨表。其首次公開發行（IPO）將產生深遠的影響

Anthropic最快將於下個月上市，其IPO不僅是這家人工智能公司的亮相，更是對經濟的嚴峻考驗，涉及數萬億美元的資金。

Anthropic 是人工智能產業的支柱企業，其開發的聊天機器人 Claude 廣受好評。 Anthropic 在私募市場的估值接近1兆美元，並已獲得超過1,300億美元的融資，如果上市，該公司預計將籌集1,000億美元，迅速成為全球最大的上市公司之一。但其風險遠不止於此。

Anthropic 及其主要競爭對手 OpenAI 都是位於一個龐大的商業夥伴和供應商金字塔的頂端 - 這些合作夥伴和供應商包括基礎設施提供商、晶片製造商、能源公司和人工智能新創公司 - 過去四年裡，他們都投入巨資，因為他們相信對人工智能產品的需求將持續增長。

Anthropic 的上市將首次深入展現支撐人工智能繁榮的關鍵業務的健康狀況，並考驗其持久性。市場對人工智能服務的需求是否永無止境，足以支撐在晶片、数據中心和其他基礎設施上的巨額投入？或者，Anthropic 的表現是否會顯示這種模式有其限制？

在科技業工作近40年的 Seligman Ventures 投資者 Umesh Padval 表示:「對市場而言，這是一個風向標」。

如果 Anthropic 的首次公開發行令人失望，可能會打擊投資者信心，並引發更廣泛的市場拋售，使人們對人工智能熱潮還能持續多久產生懷疑。如果 Anthropic 成功上市，則可能提振市場，並為更多人工智能公司上市鋪路。

股市已經處於緊張狀態，本月科技股普遍下跌，其中以設計和生產人工智能晶片的公司股價下跌最為嚴重。費城半導體指數已進入熊市，熊市的定義是較近期高點下跌20%或更多，這是投資者極度焦慮的標誌，該指數此前已從6月份的高點下跌了26%。

在過去幾週，微軟取消了與數據中心提供商Nscale的交易。研究公司 Gartner 的一份報告預測，為人工智能公司提供數據和運算能力的「新雲端」企業中，80% 可能被迫倒閉。對沖基金 Citadel 的億萬富翁老闆 Ken Griffin 表示，人工智能投資者「幾乎肯定」正處於泡沫之中。

這些負面訊號加劇了人們對人工智能基礎設施巨額投資的擔憂。亞馬遜、Meta、谷歌和微軟均表示，今年計劃在人工智能基礎設施（包括數據中心）上投入至少 7,400 億美元。根據追蹤投資的 PitchBook 數據顯示，自 2022 年以來，私募市場投資者已向 Anthropic、OpenAI 和其他人工智能公司投入了 1.1 兆美元。

隨著私募市場支出和投資的成長，公共投資也在增加，加劇了股市對人工智能產業表現的依賴。標普500指數市值排名前十的股票總市值超過1兆美元，其中八家是科技公司。這十家公司合計佔該指數市值的40%以上，而十年前這一比例還不到20%。

Anthropic 公司一旦被納入該指數，很可能取代 Berkshire Hathaway 或 Eli Lilly，這兩家公司是目前市值超過1兆美元的非科技公司中僅有的兩家，從而跌出前十名。

供應鏈服務公司 Circular Technology 的全球研究和市場情報主管 Brad Gastwirth 表示: “這件事意義重大”，“如果情況惡化，將會拖垮整個市場。”

（待續）

Addressing Plastic Waste on the Seafloor: New Plastic Developed with Embedded Degradation Enzymes

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

海底のプラごみ対策 分解酵素混ぜた新たなプラスチック開発

2026年10月25日 5:09

環境

東京大学などの研究グループは、プラスチックの中にあらかじめ分解酵素を混ぜておくことで、海に流出した際の分解を速める新たなプラスチックを開発しました。海底にごみがたまり続ける問題の改善につなげていきたいとしています。

東京大学などの研究グループは、海に流れ込んだプラスチックごみが分解されず海底にたまり続ける問題に対処するため、新たなプラスチックを開発したと発表しました。

発表によりますと、開発されたのは微生物によって分解される「生分解性プラスチック」の一種で、あらかじめ分解酵素が混ぜ込まれているのが特徴です。

プラスチックの断面が水に触れると分解が進むということで、神奈川県三崎沖の水深750メートルあまりの海底に5か月間設置した実験では、ほぼ完全に分解されたことを確認したということです。

また、分解酵素を混ぜていない別の生分解性プラスチックを用いた同様の実験と比べて、30倍以上速く分解されたことがわかったということです。

グループは、あらかじめ混ぜた酵素によって分解されるため、海底にいる微生物の種類に依存することなく、プラスチックを速やかに分解できるとしています。

東京大学大学院農学生命科学研究科の岩田忠久教授は、「海底の厳しい環境で酵素による分解ができたので、海だけでなく山や川といった環境での活用も期待できる。実用化し、ごみがたまり続ける問題を改善したい」と話しています。

Translation

Addressing Plastic Waste on the Seafloor: New Plastic Developed with Embedded Degradation Enzymes

October 25, 2026, 5:09 AM

Environment

A research group, including members from the University of Tokyo, had developed a new type of plastic that contained embedded degradation enzymes, which could accelerate the material's breakdown if it ended up in the ocean. The team hoped this innovation could help address the ongoing issue of plastic waste accumulating on the seafloor.

The research group announced the development of this new plastic to tackle the problem of plastic waste entering the ocean and remaining on the seafloor, where it failed to decompose.

According to the announcement, the material was a type of "biodegradable plastic"—designed to be broken down by microorganisms—a key feature was that decomposing enzymes were pre-mixed into it.

The plastic began to decompose when its cross-section came into contact with water. In an experiment conducted at a depth of over 750 meters off the coast of Misaki, Kanagawa Prefecture, the material was found to have almost completely decomposed after five months on the seafloor.

Furthermore, the material broke down more than 30 times faster than a comparable biodegradable plastic that did not contain the decomposing enzymes.

The research team explained that because the plastic was broken down by the enzymes already present within it, the process could occur rapidly, without relying on the specific types of microorganisms present on the seafloor.

Professor Tadahisa Iwata (岩田忠久) of the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences stated, "Since the enzymatic degradation proved effective in the harsh environment of the seafloor, this technology could also be applied to not just the sea, but in other environment such as in mountains or rivers. We aim to bring this to practical use and help resolve the persistent problem of waste accumulation."

So, a research group in Japan has developed a new type of plastic that contains embedded decomposing enzymes which could accelerate the material's breakdown if it ends up in the ocean. Apparently, this invention will help address the ongoing issue of plastic waste accumulating on the seafloor.

中國如何成為「近北極國家」？「冰上絲綢之路」背後的中俄角力

 Recently Simon Shen (沈旭暉) published the following article about how China sees itself as a "Near-Arctic State"

【國際關係日評】 中國如何成為「近北極國家」？「冰上絲綢之路」背後的中俄角力

沈旭暉 Simon Shen

https://www.patreon.com/simonshen/posts/

24 Oct 2026

中國提出「一帶一路」多年，除了我們熟悉的陸上絲綢之路、海上絲綢之路，原來還有一條「冰上絲綢之路」。這個名字聽起來有點像政治宣傳的創意比賽，但它確實是中國官方提出的國際戰略。更有喜感的是，中國根本不是北極國家，卻在2018年發表的《中國的北極政策》白皮書中，自稱「近北極國家」（Near-Arctic State），聲稱自己是最接近北極圈的大陸國家之一。

好了，究竟怎樣才算「近北極」？

中國最北端位於黑龍江漠河附近，距離北極圈仍有約1,450公里。按照同一標準，哈薩克、白俄羅斯、波蘭、德國，甚至英國，都比中國更接近北極圈。然而，國際法並沒有「近北極國家」這個正式身份，也沒有規定距離北極多少公里便可以取得特殊權利。北極理事會只有八個成員國，中國與日本、印度、新加坡等國一樣，只是觀察員。2019年，美國國務卿蓬佩奧公開質疑中國的說法，強調北極國家與非北極國家之外，並不存在第三種正式身份。

但中國創造這個概念，並非純粹為了名稱 sexy。隨着全球暖化，北極海冰逐漸減少，沿俄羅斯北部海岸的北方航道開始具有更大的商業潛力。部分中國至歐洲的航線，如果經北極而非蘇彝士運河，航程可以縮短約三分之一。中國既希望減少對馬六甲海峽及傳統印度洋航線的依賴，也希望參與北極能源、礦產及航運規則的制定。所謂「近北極國家」，正是將中國由局外人包裝成北極重要持份者的外交概念。

中國最初嘗試進入北極，並不是單純依靠俄羅斯。2011年，中國富商黃怒波提出以約1,000萬美元購買冰島東北部約306平方公里土地，計劃投資約2億美元興建旅遊度假區及高爾夫球場。這片土地相當於冰島國土約0.3%，引發當地對外國投資及戰略安全的爭論，最終冰島政府依土地法律拒絕交易。中國後來亦曾透過格陵蘭、挪威等地的科研、礦產及基建合作尋找北極入口，但不少項目受到政治或商業阻力。

相比之下，俄羅斯擁有極長的北極海岸線，控制北方航道的重要港口、航行許可及破冰服務，卻一直對中國的北極野心有所戒備。俄羅斯希望外國企業購買能源、投資基建，但不希望非北極國家介入航道管理。這正是中俄在北極問題上的根本矛盾：中國希望北極更加國際化，俄羅斯則堅持沿岸國家的主導地位。

改變局面的，是俄羅斯與西方關係惡化。2014年克里米亞危機後，西方開始限制俄羅斯北極能源開發所需的資金及技術，中國因此成為重要合作對象。2017年投產的亞馬爾液化天然氣項目，中國石油天然氣集團與絲路基金合共持股29.9%。同年，中俄開始正式推動「冰上絲綢之路」，將中國的一帶一路與俄羅斯北方航道發展對接。2022年俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭後，西方制裁進一步擴大，俄羅斯在北極能源、船舶及技術的合作選擇更有限，才不得不全面接受中國滲透。

近年中俄在北極的合作，已由能源延伸至航運及安全。2024年，中俄成立北方航道合作分委會，協調航運、基建及航行安全；中國海警亦與俄羅斯邊防船展開北極相關水域聯合巡航。2025年雙方進一步通過航運合作行動計劃，中國企業亦逐步增加北極貨櫃航線。中國不再只是俄羅斯天然氣的買家，而是開始參與北極物流網絡的經營與規劃。

當然，經濟影響力不等於領土主權。俄羅斯仍然掌握北方航道的主要法律管轄、破冰船隊及軍事部署，中國也不會要求俄羅斯割讓北極領土。但如果俄羅斯北極能源愈來愈依靠中國市場，港口建設需要中國投資，貨櫃航運需要中國船隊，俄羅斯即使保留所有主權，還有多大能力拒絕北京的要求？

So, China in its 2018 white paper declared itself a "Near-Arctic State" (「近北極國家」) to legitimize its involvement in the Arctic. Driven by melting sea ice, China seeks to utilize the Northern Sea Route, which would reduce Europe-bound shipping trips by one-third compared to the Suez Canal, while also the benefit in securing regional energy resources. After facing Western resistance in Iceland and Greenland, China leverages its ties with Russia. Russia historically guarded its Arctic sovereignty, but becomes heavily reliant on Chinese capital for projects following Western sanctions due to its war with Ukraine. Today, bilateral cooperation between China and Russia has expanded beyond energy into joint Arctic maritime patrols and logistics planning. Apparently, while Russia retains legal jurisdiction, its economic dependency on China grants the latter an increasing strategic leverage in the region.

Note:

1. Dr. Simon Shen (沈旭暉) is a prominent Hong Kong international relations scholar, political scientist, and public intellectual. He holds a doctorate from the University of Oxford and master’s and bachelor's degrees from Yale University. Known for his expertise in Chinese foreign policy, global affairs, and Hong Kong’s geopolitical positioning, Shen has taught at multiple prestigious universities. He is also a prolific commentator, entrepreneur, and media personality, frequently analyzing global trends and international relations for diverse audiences. (Google)

什麼是 PHP？為什麼政府和企業網站會紛紛下線？ （2/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

What Is PHP? Why Are Government and Business Websites Going Offline? (2/2)

A critical security flaw in the programming language underpinning much of the web has prompted a global rush to patch vulnerable systems.

By Karla Adam and Dustin Volz (Aaron Krolik contributed reporting)

Oct. 22, 2026

(continue)

Have attacks already started?

The defenders and hackers began racing to protect or compromise systems on Wednesday when the patch was released. But there were signs of an earlier leak from the group of security researchers working to create the fix.

Late Wednesday, Amazon revealed in a blog post that it had data showing that an unknown actor had attempted to use the PHP attack four days before the patch’s release against a honeypot network, or a decoy system, that the company maintains. (A honeypot network tries to catch cybercriminals in the act of doing something nefarious.)

The identity of the attacker was unknown, but the early activity suggested that hackers could have been readying attacks for days before a fix was released.

“It remains unclear how the actor acquired exploit information prior to disclosure,” C.J. Moses, the chief information security officer at Amazon, said in the blog post.

Which sites are affected?

Sites that rely on PHP are vulnerable, which means a good chunk of the internet.

Matthew Prince, the chief executive of CloudFlare, which helps websites secure and manage internet traffic, said in a social media post on Wednesday that the company “saw thousands of attempts to exploit” the flaw in the hours before it was publicly announced.

“That jumped to tens of thousands in the 45 minutes post announcement, hundreds of thousands within 2 hours, and millions now,” Mr. Prince added.

Several government websites in Europe and Asia went offline as a precautionary measure.

The Dutch cybersecurity agency, Internet Archive and the operator of Wikipedia took down a number of its systems. In Britain, the prime minister’s office said some government services might be offline on Friday.

On Thursday morning, the website of Finland’s government displayed a message to users: “The websites of the government are fully or partially unavailable. We are currently resolving the issue. Please try again in a moment.”

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of Japan urged operators whose sites rely on PHP to apply the patch as soon as possible. For those unable to do so immediately, she wrote on social media, temporarily suspending websites and similar measures could be effective in reducing risk.

Should regular internet users be concerned?

Because PHP is so pervasive, the collateral damage could fall on everyday users whose personal data and essential online services depend on sites staying secure. Consumers could experience online disruptions in the coming days with certain businesses or government services.

Translation

什麼是 PHP？為什麼政府和企業網站會紛紛下線？ （2/2）

支撐大部分網路運行的程式語言 PHP 存在一個嚴重的安全漏洞，這引發了全球修復漏洞系統的熱潮

（繼續）

攻擊已經開始了嗎？

週三修補通知發佈後，防禦者和駭客開始爭分奪秒地保護或攻破系統。但有跡象表明，參與修復的安全研究人員團隊中先前已經有出現早期洩露的跡象。

在週三較晚的時候，亞馬遜在一篇部落格文章中透露，數據顯示，在修補程式發佈前四天，一名身份不明的攻擊者曾試圖利用 PHP 漏洞攻擊該公司維護的蜜罐網路 (honeypot network)（或稱誘餌系統）。 （蜜罐網路旨在抓獲正在進行惡意活動的網絡犯罪者。）

攻擊者的身份尚不清楚，但早期活動表明，駭客可能在漏洞修復程序發佈前數日就開始準備攻擊。

亞馬遜首席資訊安全官 C.J. Moses 在部落格文章中表示：“目前尚不清楚攻擊者是如何在漏洞披露前獲取可利用的資訊。”

哪些網站受到影響？

依賴 PHP 的網站都存在漏洞，這意味著網絡的很大一部分都受到了影響。

CloudFlare 執行長 Matthew Prince 週三在社交媒體上發文稱，該公司在漏洞公開披露前的幾個小時內「發現了數千次利用漏洞的嘗試」。 CloudFlare 是一家幫助網站保護和管理網絡流量的公司。

Prince 補充說： “在公告發布後的 45 分鐘內，嘗試次數激增至數萬次；2 小時內達到數十萬次；現在已達數百萬次。”

作為預防措施，歐洲和亞洲的多個政府網站已暫時下線。

荷蘭網絡安全機構、網絡檔案館和維基百科的營運商關閉了多個系統。在英國，首相辦公室表示，部分政府服務可能在周五離線。

週四上午，芬蘭政府網站向用戶顯示訊息：“政府網站全部或部分無法進入。我們正在解決問題，請稍後再試。”

日本首相高市早苗敦促依賴 PHP 的網站營運商盡快應用補救。她在社交媒體上表示，對於無法立即進行補救的營運商，暫時關閉網站等措施可以有效降低風險。

普通網友是否該擔心？

由於 PHP 應用廣泛，其帶來的附帶損害可能會波及日常用戶，用戶的個人資料和重要的線上服務都依賴網站的安全。未來幾天，消費者在使用某些企業或政府服務時可能會遇到網絡中斷的情況。

So, governments and companies around the world are racing to patch their websites — or taking them offline until they can be fixed — after the discovery of major security flaws in PHP, a piece of software that underpins much of the internet. Many websites are taken down as a protective measure. It is interesting to know that the chief executive of CloudFlare has said that the company “saw thousands of attempts to exploit” the flaw in the hours before it was publicly announced. Apparently, cybercriminals are everywhere.