在日益加劇的混亂之中，特朗普的10%全球新關稅生效

Recently NIKKEI Asia reported the following:

Trump's new 10% global tariff takes effect amid growing confusion

US president turns to 1974 law after Supreme Court strikes down 'reciprocal' tariffs

February 24, 2026 14:58 JST

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) -- U.S. President Donald Trump's new 10% global tariff took effect Tuesday, amid growing confusion at home and abroad about his approach to trade since the Supreme Court's invalidation of a central pillar of his economic agenda.

The new surcharge, which can run through July 24, replaced Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs targeting almost all U.S. trading partners, as well as fentanyl-related levies he applied to goods from China, Canada and Mexico, using a 1970s-era emergency law.

The replacement came after the highest court on Friday struck down those sweeping tariffs, a signature part of Trump's economic program and foreign policy during his second term.

Less than 24 hours after announcing the new, across-the-board tariff under a different legal framework, a furious Trump said Saturday that the rate would be raised to 15%, without specifying when, and hinted at unleashing other import taxes.

To implement the 10% tariff on imports from all countries, he relied on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows a president to impose duties of up to 15% to address "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficits.

The statute permits such measures to only last 150 days unless Congress approves an extension. No president had previously used the statue to impose tariffs.

According to Trump's proclamation on Friday, certain essential imports to the United States are exempted from the 10% tariff. These include critical minerals, aerospace products, beef, tomatoes and pharmaceuticals.

In addition, the temporary measure will not apply to imports already hit by the sector-specific tariffs Trump has levied on national security grounds since his return to office in January last year, such as automobiles and steel products.

The sectoral tariffs are authorized under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

But the 10% tariff will be added to the preexisting duties on other goods, meaning import costs for some companies could be higher than before the court's ruling.

The tariffs will be paid by importers in the United States, not exporters, and the increased costs are likely to be passed on to American consumers.

In the case of Japan's trade agreement with the United States, reached last summer, the Trump administration imposed a 15% country-specific tariff on goods from the Asian country.

Still, Japan was given "no-stacking" special treatment, under which imports from the country with preexisting tariffs of 15% or higher were not facing any additional levy, while duties on other items were at 15%.

On Monday, Trump warned U.S. trading partners not to take advantage of the Supreme Court's ruling, which said he overstepped his presidential powers last year when he invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the country-specific tariffs, without gaining congressional approval.

Trump wrote on social media that any country that seeks to "play games" with the decision will face a "much higher" tariff. He especially threatened countries with which the United States runs trade deficits and those that have already reached tariff deals.

Translation

在日益加劇的混亂之中，特朗普的10%全球新關稅生效

 最高法院駁回「對等」關稅後，美國總統轉向援引1974年法律

 華盛頓（共同社）- 美國總統特朗普的全球10%新關稅於週二生效。此前，最高法院駁回了他的經濟議程之中一核心支柱，導致國內外對其貿易政策的困惑日益加劇。

這項新的附加稅可持續至7月24日，它取代了特朗普針對幾乎所有美國貿易夥伴徵收的所謂「對等」關稅，以及援引1970年代的一項緊急法案，對來自中國、加拿大和墨西哥的商品徵收芬太尼的相關關稅。

此前，最高法院於週五推翻了特朗普第二任期內一系列全面關稅措施，這些關稅是其經濟計劃和外交政策的標誌性組成部分。

憤怒的特朗普在宣佈根據不同的法律框架全面對各國商品徵收新關稅不到24小時後，於週六表示，關稅稅率將提高至15%，但並未具體說明何時生效，並暗示將實施其他進口稅。

為了對所有國家的進口商品徵收10%的關稅，他引用了1974年《貿易法》第122條。該條款允許總統徵收最高15%的關稅，以應對「巨額且嚴重的」國際收支逆差。

該條款規定，除非國會批准延期，否則此類措施的有效期僅為150天。此前從未有總統援引該條款徵收關稅。

根據特朗普週五的公告，某些對美國至關重要的進口商品可免徵10%的關稅。這些商品包括關鍵礦產、航空航太產品、牛肉、番茄和藥品。

此外，這項臨時措施不適用於自特朗普去年1月重返總統職位以來，已因國家安全理由而徵收的特定產業關稅所影響的進口商品，例如汽車和鋼鐵產品。

這些行業關稅是根據1962年《貿易擴展法》第232條授權徵收的。

但新增的10%關稅將加在其他商品的現有關稅之上，這意味著一些公司的進口成本可能會高於法院裁決之前。

這些關稅將由美國進口商而非出口商支付，增加的成本很可能會轉嫁給美國消費者。

以去年夏天達成的美國與日本的貿易協定為例，特朗普政府對來自日本的商品徵收了15%的特定國家關稅。

儘管如此，日本仍享有「不疊加」的特殊待遇，即此前已對日本徵收15%或以上關稅的進口商品無需額外加徵關稅，而其他商品的關稅則為15%。

週一，特朗普警告美國貿易夥伴不要利用最高法院的裁決而去佔便宜。最高法院裁定，特朗普去年援引1977年《國際緊急經濟權力法》對特定國家徵收關稅，但因為此舉未獲得國會批准而超越了總統權力。

特朗普在社群媒體上發文稱，任何試圖利用這項裁決「玩弄政治遊戲」的國家都將面臨「更高」的關稅。他尤其威脅那些與美國有貿易逆差的國家，以及已經達成關稅協議的國家。

So, Donald Trump's new 10% global tariff is taking effect after the Supreme Court invalidates his previous economic agenda. The court rules that Trump has overstepped his presidential powers last year when he invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the country-specific tariffs without gaining congressional approval. To implement the 10% tariff on imports, he now relies on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows a president to impose duties of up to 15% to address "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficits. Apparently, Trump is furious about the court’s decision.

中國深山之中，一個核武復興正在成形（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

China Nuclear Site (Credit: The NYT)

Deep in China’s Mountains, a Nuclear Revival Takes Shape (2/2)

Satellite imagery of secretive nuclear facilities reveals Beijing’s efforts to expand its arsenal, just as the last global guardrails on nuclear weapons vanish

The NYT - By Chris Buckley and Agnes Chang

 Feb. 15, 2026

(continue)

The sites in Sichuan were built six decades ago as part of Mao Zedong’s “Third Front,” a project to shield China’s nuclear weapons production labs and plants from strikes by the United States or the Soviet Union.

Tens of thousands of scientists, engineers and workers labored in secret to carve into the mountainous interior what Danny B. Stillman, an American nuclear scientist who visited the area, later called, in a coauthored book, “an inland nuclear empire.”

When China’s tensions with Washington and Moscow subsided in the 1980s, many “Third Front” nuclear facilities closed or shrank, and often their scientists moved to a new weapons lab in the nearby city of Mianyang. Sites like Pingtong and Zitong continued operating, but change in the years that followed was piecemeal, reflecting China’s policy then of keeping a relatively small nuclear arsenal, said Dr. Babiarz.

That era of restraint faded from about seven years ago. China began rapidly building or upgrading many nuclear weapons facilities, and construction at the sites in Sichuan also accelerated, Dr. Babiarz said. The buildup includes a vast laser ignition lab in Mianyang that could be used to study nuclear warheads without detonating actual weapons.

The design of the Pingtong complex suggests that it is being used to make the pits of nuclear warheads — the metal core, usually containing plutonium — according to Dr. Babiarz. He noted that its architecture was similar to that of pit making facilities in other countries, including the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the United States.

In Zitong, the new bunkers and ramparts are likely being used to test “high explosives,” experts say, referring to the chemical compounds that detonate to create the conditions for a chain reaction in nuclear materials.

“You have a layer of high explosives and the shock wave at the same time implodes into the center. This needs blast tests to perfect them,” said Hui Zhang, a physicist who researches China’s nuclear programs at the Kennedy School of Government of Harvard University, who examined Dr. Babiarz’s findings.

The complex includes an oval area about the size of 10 basketball courts.

The precise objective of these upgrades remains a subject of debate. Dr. Zhang said satellite imagery alone offers limited information. “We don’t know how many warheads have been produced, but we just see the plant expansion,” he said.

Some of the recent changes may simply reflect upgrades for safety, said Dr. Zhang, the author of a new book, ‘The Untold Story of China’s Nuclear Weapon Development and Testing.’ Chinese nuclear engineers may also need more facilities and test areas at Zitong to modify warhead designs for new weapons, such as submarine-launched missiles, he said.

One major concern for Washington is how this larger, more modern arsenal might change China’s behavior in a crisis, particularly over Taiwan.

China wants to be “in the position where they believe they’re largely immune from nuclear coercion by the United States,” said Michael S. Chase, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for China who is now a senior political scientist at RAND. “I think they probably judge that could come into play in a conventional conflict over Taiwan.”

Translation

中國深山之中，一個核武復興正在成形（2/2）

衛星影像顯示，北京正試圖擴充其核武庫，此時，全球核武的最後一道阻止欄已不復存在。

（繼續）

四川的這些設施建於六十年前，是毛澤東「第三戰線」計劃的一部分，旨在保護中國的核武生產實驗室和工廠免受美國或蘇聯的打擊。

數萬名科學家、工程師和工人秘密地在四川山區開墾出一片土地，正如曾到訪該地區的美國核科學家Danny B. Stillman後來在與人合著的一本書中所說的 “內陸核帝國” 。

Babiarz博士說，1980年代，隨著中國與華盛頓和莫斯科的緊張關係緩和，許多「第三戰線」的核設施關閉或縮減規模，其科學家通常被轉移到附近Mianyang市新建的武器實驗室。Pingtong和Zitong等設施繼續運行，但隨後幾年的變化是零星的，這反映了當時中國保持相對較小的核武庫的政策。

這種克制的時代大約在七年前結束。Babiarz博士表示，中國已開始快速建造或升級眾多核武設施，四川的建設速度也顯著加快。這些設施包括Mianyang一座規模龐大的雷射點火實驗室，該實驗室可用於在不引爆實際武器的情況下研究核彈頭。

Babiarz博士指出，Pingtong綜合設施的設計表明，它正被用於製造核彈頭的彈芯 - 通常含有鈽的金屬核心。他提到該設施的建築結構與其他國家的彈芯製造設施類似，包括美國洛斯阿拉莫斯國家實驗室。

專家表示，在Zitong，新建的掩體和圍牆很可能用於測試“高爆炸藥”，這裡指的是能夠在核材料中引爆以產生連鎖反應條件的化學化合物。

曾審閱Babiarz博士的研究成果的哈佛大學甘迺迪政府學院的研究中國核子計劃的物理學家Hui Zhang說道:「核彈頭有一層高爆炸藥，衝擊波同時會向中心內爆。這需要透過爆炸試驗來完善」。

該設施包括一個橢圓形區域，面積約相當於10個籃球場。

這些升級的具體目的仍有爭議。Zhang博士表示，因只有衛星影像故提供的資訊有限。 他說:「我們不知道已經生產了多少枚核彈頭，我們只看到工廠在擴建中」。

Zhang博士是新書《中國核武研發與實驗秘史》的作者，他表示，最近的一些變化可能只是反影為了提高安全性。他還說，中國核子工程師可能還需要在Zitong建造更多的設施和試驗場地，以便改善新型武器例如潛射飛彈的彈頭設計。

華盛頓的主要擔憂之一是，中國擁有規模更大、更現代化的核武庫，這可能會在危機發生時，尤其是在台灣問題上，改變中國的行為。

RAND高級政治學家、前美國國防部負責中國事務的副助理部長Michael S. Chase表示，中國希望「讓自己相信已處於一種基本不受美國核脅迫的位置」; 「我認為他們可能認為，在圍繞台灣的常規衝突中這會發揮作用」。

So, in valleys of southwest China is accelerating its nuclear buildup. One such valley is known as Zitong while the other valley is Pingtong. The precise objective of these upgrades remains a subject of debate. One major concern for Washington is how this larger, more modern arsenal might change China’s behavior in a crisis, particularly over Taiwan. Some US experts think China wants to be in the position where they believe they’re largely immune from nuclear coercion by the United States, and believes that position could come into play during a conventional conflict over Taiwan. Apparently, China is updating its nuclear arsenal.

中國深山之中，一個核武復興正在成形（1/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Zitong Nuclear site compared (Credit: the NYT)

Deep in China’s Mountains, a Nuclear Revival Takes Shape (1/2)

Satellite imagery of secretive nuclear facilities reveals Beijing’s efforts to expand its arsenal, just as the last global guardrails on nuclear weapons vanish.

The NYT - By Chris Buckley and Agnes Chang

 Feb. 15, 2026

In the lush, misty valleys of southwest China, satellite imagery reveals the country’s accelerating nuclear buildup, a force designed for a new age of superpower rivalry.

One such valley is known as Zitong, in Sichuan Province, where engineers have been building new bunkers and ramparts. A new complex bristles with pipes, suggesting the facility handles highly hazardous materials.

Another valley is home to a double-fenced facility known as Pingtong, where experts believe China is making plutonium-packed cores of nuclear warheads. The main structure, dominated by a 360-foot-high ventilation stack, has been refurbished in recent years with new vents and heat dispersers. More construction is underway next to it.

Above the Pingtong facility entrance, a hallmark exhortation of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, appears in characters so large they are visible from space: “Stay true to the founding cause and always remember our mission.”

These are among several secretive nuclear-related sites in Sichuan Province that have expanded and undergone upgrades in recent years.

China’s buildup complicates efforts to revive global arms controls after the expiration of the final remaining nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia. Washington argues that any successor agreements must also bind China, but Beijing has shown no interest.

“The changes we see on the ground at these sites align with China’s broader goals of becoming a global superpower. Nuclear weapons are an integral part of that,” said Renny Babiarz, a geospatial intelligence expert who has analyzed satellite images and other visual evidence of the sites and shared his findings with The New York Times.

He likened each nuclear location across China to a piece of a mosaic that, seen as a whole, shows a pattern of rapid growth. “There’s been evolution at all of these sites, but broadly speaking, that change accelerated starting from 2019,” he said.

China’s nuclear expansion has been a growing source of tension with the United States. Thomas G. DiNanno, the State Department’s under secretary for arms control and international security, this month publicly accused China of secretly conducting “nuclear explosive tests” in contravention of a global moratorium. Beijing has rejected the claim as untrue, and experts have debated how strong the evidence is for Mr. DiNanno’s assertions.

China had more than 600 nuclear warheads by the end of 2024 and is on track to have 1,000 by 2030, according to the Pentagon’s latest annual estimate. China’s stockpile is much smaller than the many thousands held by the United States and Russia, but its growth is still troublesome, said Matthew Sharp, a former State Department official who is now a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“I think without a real dialogue on these topics, which we lack, it’s really hard to say where it’s going, and that, for me, is dangerous,” he said, “because now we’re forced to react and plan around the worst-case interpretation of a concerning trend line.”

(to be continued)

Translation

中國深山之中，一個核武復興正在成形（1/2）

衛星影像顯示，北京正試圖擴充其核武庫，此時，全球核武的最後一道阻止欄已不復存在。

在中國西南部翠綠、霧氣繚繞的山谷中，衛星圖像揭示了中國正在加速推進的核武庫建設，這股力量旨在應對新時代的超級大國競爭。

四川省的Zitong谷便是其中之一，工程師們正在那裡建造新的掩體和防禦工事。一個新建築群內部管道密佈，顯示該設施正在處理高危險物質。

另一個山谷中坐落著一座名為Pingtong的有雙層圍欄設施，專家認為中國正在那裡製造裝有鈽的核彈頭核心。這座以高達360英尺（約110公尺）的通風煙囪為主體的設施，近年來經過翻新，增設了新的通風口和散熱裝置。其旁邊正在進行更多建設。

在Pingtong設施入口上方，赫然醒目地鎘刻著中國領導人習近平的一句標誌性訓誡：「不忘初心，不忘使命」， 其字號之大，甚至從太空都能清晰可見。

這些設施只是四川省近年來擴建和升級的眾多秘密核子設施之一。

隨著美俄之間僅存的核武條約到期，中國的核武庫建設使得重啟全球軍控的努力變得更加複雜。華盛頓方面認為，任何後續協議都必須對中國具有約束力，但北京方面對此毫無興趣。

地理空間情報專家Renny Babiarz說道:「我們在這些地點觀察到的實際情況與中國成為全球超級大國的宏偉目標相符。核武是其中不可或缺的一部分」。他分析了衛星影像和其他相關視覺證據，並將研究結果分享給《紐約時報》。

他將中國各地的核設施比喻為合組成的圖案中的一塊，整體來看，呈現出快速發展的模式。 他說:「所有這些地點都在不斷演變，但總的來說，這種變化從2019年開始加速」。

中國的核子擴張已成為中美關係日益緊張的根源。本月，美國國務院負責軍控和國際安全的副國務卿Thomas G. DiNanno公開指責中國違反全球暫停核試驗協議，秘密進行「核爆試驗」。北京方面否認了這項指控，專家們也對DiNanno先生的說法究竟有多少證據支持展開了辯論。

根據五角大廈最新的年度估算，到2024年底，中國將擁有超過600枚核彈頭，預計在2030年達到1,000枚。麻省理工學院核安政策中心高級研究員、前國務院官員Matthew Sharp表示，中國的核武庫規模遠小於美國和俄羅斯數以千計的核彈頭，但其成長速度仍令人擔憂。

他說道:“我認為，如果我們缺乏就這些議題展開真正的對話（而這正是我們所欠缺的），就很難預測事態的發展方向，而這對我來說是危險的”，“因為現在我們不得不根據令人擔憂的趨勢線的最壞情況來做出反應和製定計劃。”

（待續）

US clinical trial to transplant pig kidney into patient; kidney functions for up to 270 days

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

米 ブタの腎臓を患者に移植する治験 腎臓は最長で270日余機能

2026年2月15日午後10時49分

医療・健康

アメリカの病院などが進めている、ブタの腎臓を患者に移植する治験に携わる日本人医師が15日、都内で最新の経過を発表し、移植した腎臓は最も長い患者で270日余り機能したと報告しました。

これは15日、東京 千代田区で開かれたシンポジウムで、アメリカ・マサチューセッツ総合病院の河合達郎医師が発表しました。

シンポジウムで河合医師は、重い腎不全の患者にブタの腎臓を移植する手術をこれまで4人に行い、移植した腎臓は、最も長い患者で271日間機能して透析が必要ない状態だったと報告しました。

この患者はその後腎臓のドナーが見つかり、移植を受けて回復したということです。

また、ほかの3人のうち、1人は別の病気で死亡し、残りの2人は今も移植したブタの腎臓が機能しているということで、河合医師らは今後も手術を行いアメリカでの承認を目指すとしています。

動物の臓器などを治療のために移植する「異種移植」をめぐっては、ドナーの不足を背景に、国内でもブタの腎臓を移植する治験の準備を進める動きが出ています。

シンポジウムでは国立成育医療研究センターの神里彩子部長らが異種移植への理解について国内の3200人余りにアンケートした結果も報告され、全体の52.9％が異種移植を知らず、勧められた場合抵抗感があるとする回答も77％に上ったと紹介されました。

河合医師は、「日本ではドナーが圧倒的に足りず、移植を諦めている人が多い。われわれの治験の結果も参考にしてもらい、国内での実施について議論してほしい」と話していました。

Translation

US clinical trial to transplant pig kidney into patient; kidney functions for up to 270 days

February 15, 2026, 10:49 PM

Medicine & Health

A Japanese doctor involved in a clinical trial of pig kidney transplants into patients, currently being conducted at American hospitals, gave an update on the progress in Tokyo on the 15th, reporting that the transplanted kidney had functioned for over 270 days in the longest-lasting patient.

This was announced on the 15th at a symposium held in Chiyoda Ward of Tokyo by Dr. Tatsuro Kawai (河合達郎) from the Massachusetts General Hospital in the United States.

At the symposium, Dr. Kawai reported that he had performed pig kidney transplants on four patients with severe kidney failure, and that the transplanted kidney functioned for 271 days in this longest-lasting patient without the need for dialysis.

This patient subsequently found a kidney donor, received a transplant and recovered.

Of the other three patients, while one died of a different illness, for the remaining two, the transplanted pig kidney was still functioning, so Dr. Kawai and his colleagues planned to continue performing surgeries and seek approval in the United States.

Regarding xenotransplantation, the transplantation of animal organs for medical treatment, a shortage of donors had led to movements in Japan to prepare clinical trials for pig kidney transplants.

At the symposium, Director Ayako Kamisato (神里彩子) of the National Center for Child Health and Development and her colleagues reported the results of a survey of over 3,200 people in Japan regarding their understanding of xenotransplantation which found out that 52.9% of respondents were unaware of xenotransplantation, and 77% would be hesitant if it were offered to them.

Dr. Kawai said, "There is an overwhelming shortage of donors in Japan, and many people give up transplanting. I would like the results of our clinical trial to be used as a reference in discussing doing transplantation in Japan."

So, a Japanese doctor involved in a clinical trial of transplanting pig kidney into patients in the US gives an update on the progress and reports that in the longest-lasting patient, the transplanted kidney has functioned for over 270 days. I think this is an impressive medical record.

新研究洗脫了是那個女人導致王朝覆滅的罪名（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

New Research Absolves the Woman Blamed for a Dynasty’s Ruin (2/2)

A Chinese king’s infatuation with a woman was seen as the reason that a golden age collapsed. Evidence suggests climate change and internal strife played bigger roles.

By Andrew Higgins - Reporting from Hejia Village and Xi’an in Shaanxi Province, China

Feb. 14, 2026

Updated 4:05 a.m. ET

(continue)

Professor Shaughnessy said he had long believed that climactic events before Western Zhou collapsed “probably contributed to the fall, but there were many other reasons for it as well.”

Volcanoes spew out aerosol particles that cut sunlight and can play havoc with farming thousands of miles away. Whether an eruption “tips a dynasty over the edge,” however, depends heavily on the extent at the time of warfare and instability, Mr. Ludlow said.

“Our most interesting finding,” he said, “is not that volcanoes are implicated in dynastic change but that the impact of climatic shock depends on how stable a society was in the lead up to that shock.”

Mr. Chong, the archaeology institute director, also said that Western Zhou’s own “internal and external contradictions” were key to its downfall.

These included a steady weakening of the royal court’s control over regional rulers as ties of blood to the center were diluted by time, and also a growing conflict with rival “barbarian” powers to the northwest and southeast.

For centuries, Chinese scholars have struggled to square the Western Zhou’s sudden collapse with the glowing praise heaped upon it by Confucius. “If the Western Zhou dynasty was so perfect an age of good politics and institutions as Confucius tended to suggest, then why had it to fall, and to give rise to a time of political disorder and moral decline?” asked Li Feng, a professor of early Chinese history at Columbia University, in a 2006 book.

Yan Yongqian, a young archaeologist who is part of a team now digging up what is believed to be a side gate to the Western Zhou capital, said the excavation work had revealed evidence of the dynasty’s highly stratified and sophisticated society, as well as its darker side, including human sacrifices.

The collapse of the Western Zhou, Mr. Yan said, seems to have happened quickly, accelerated by military attack from outside against defenses weakened by internal discord. An earlier round of excavation uncovered the remains of burned ancient buildings, suggesting a violent end.

“The fall of this state was likely a very sudden event,” Mr. Yan said. Whether Bao Si, the beautiful consort, who, according to ancient legend, was conceived from dragon spittle, existed is unclear and even if she did, he added, “a single person cannot destroy a dynasty.”

Since Sima Qian wrote “Historical Records,” each new Chinese dynasty has traditionally commissioned an official history of its predecessor, enumerating supposed moral and other failings that led to its demise.

Though widely dismissed by modern scholars as fairy tales, stories about the Western Zhou king’s dynasty-destroying infatuation with Bao Si still sometimes crowd out other explanations. At a museum near the excavation site showcasing Western Zhou’s cultural achievements and its sudden demise, exhibits recount how the king grappled with natural disasters and other problems but lost power largely because of his wayward love life.

To entertain Bao Si, who was famous for her great but unsmiling beauty, the story goes, he lit beacon fires that were supposed to be used to summon help in times of emergency, a stunt that cost him his life and kingdom when a real attack came in 771 B.C.

Whether such beacons even existed, however, is disputed and Mr. Yan, the archaeologist, said the story had probably been fabricated to demonize Bao Si and cover up the dynasty’s real problems.

Mr. Chong, the Shaanxi province archaeology institute director, said: “When things go wrong you have to find someone to take responsibility,” and, in China’s patriarchal society, that person “is always a woman.” He added, “The real collapse of a society is caused by the system and its mechanisms.”

Translation

新研究洗脫了是那個女人導致王朝覆滅的罪名（2/2）

一位中國君王對一位女子的迷戀曾被認為是導致王朝鼎盛時期終結的原因。但有證據表明，氣候變遷和內部紛爭才是更重要的因素。

（繼續）

Shaughnessy教授表示，他一直認為西周滅亡前的氣候事件「可能促成了王朝的覆滅，但還有許多其他原因」。

火山爆發會噴出氣溶膠粒子，阻擋陽光，可能對數千英里外的農業造成嚴重破壞。Ludlow先生表示，火山爆發是否“足以壓垮一個王朝”，很大程度上取決於當時戰爭和動盪的程度。

他說:“我們最有趣的發現並非火山活動與王朝更迭有關，而是氣候衝擊的影響取決於社會在衝擊發生前的穩定性。”

考古研究所所長Chong先生也表示，西周自身的「內外矛盾」是其滅亡的關鍵。

這些矛盾包括：隨著血緣關係的淡化，皇室對地方統治者的控制力逐漸減弱；以及與西北和東南方的「蠻夷」勢力日益加劇的衝突。

幾個世紀以來，中國學者一直試圖拆解西周的突然滅亡與孔子對其極力讚揚的矛盾。 哥倫比亞大學早期中國歷史教授Li Feng在2006年出版的一本書中提出了這個問題:「如果西周真如孔子所言，是一個政治和制度都臻於完美的時代，那麼它為何會滅亡，並導致政治混亂和道德淪喪的局面呢？」

年輕的考古學家Yan Yongqian是目前正在挖掘相信是西周首都側門一處遺址的考古學家成員之一。他表示，挖掘工作揭示了西周社會高度分層且複雜的一面，同時也暴露了其陰暗面，例如人祭。

Yan說，西周的滅亡似乎發生得很快，外部軍事進攻加速了這一進程，而內部紛爭削弱了其防禦。先前的一輪挖掘工作發現了被焚毀的古代建築遺跡，顯示西周的滅亡是一場暴力事件。

Yan說: 「這個國家的滅亡很可能是一場非常突然的事件」。至於傳說中由龍唾液孕育而成的絕世美人褒姒是否真實存在，尚不清楚。即使褒姒存在，Yan補充道: “一個人不可能摧毀一個王朝。”

自從司馬遷寫《史記》以來，每個新的中國王朝都會按慣例委託編纂前朝的官方史書，列舉前朝的種種道德敗壞和其他導致其滅亡的罪狀。

儘管現代學者普遍認為西周王與褒姒的戀情是無稽之談，但這些故事至今仍佔據主導地位，有時甚至蓋過了其他解釋。在西周遺址附近的一座博物館裡，展出了西周的文化成就及其突然滅亡的原因，其中也講述了西周王如何應對自然災害和其他問題，最終卻因其放蕩不羈的愛情生活而失去權力。

據說，為了取悅以絕世美貌著稱卻不苟言笑的褒姒，西周王點燃了原本用於在緊急情況下求援的烽火台。西元前771年，一場真正的戰爭爆發，西周王的這一舉動最終讓他付出了生命的代價，並失去了王國。

然而，這些烽火台是否真的存在尚存爭議。考古學家Yan先生表示，這個故事很可能是為了妖魔化褒姒、掩蓋其王朝的真正問題而編造的。

陝西省考古研究所所長Chong先生說：「出了問題，總得有人承擔責任」。在中國的父權社會裡，這個人”總是女性”。他還補充說：「一個社會的真正崩潰是由其制度及其運作機制所造成的」。

              So, new researches suggest that the collapse of the Western Zhou seems to have happened quickly, accelerated by military attack from outside and weakened defenses due to internal discord. This suggestion has a wider implication in that conclusions made by previous historians in medieval China in explaining causes of a dynasty change etc. might not be as trustworthy as has been previously thought. Their conclusions might have been clouded by moral judgment held by Chinese scholars who wrote history privately or officially. Probably, their level of logical thinking was not as sophisticated as their counterparts in modern time, apparently after the arrival of Western learning in China.  Education received by scholars in those days focused more of literature learning and memorization rather than logical thinking. Also, modern historians have the benefit in getting more archeological tools to help understand historical events from different perspectives.

Note:

1. An aerosol 氣溶膠is a suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets in air or another gas. Aerosols can be generated from natural or human causes. The scientific term aerosol refers to the mixture of particulates in gas, and not to the particulate matter alone. The liquid or solid particles in an aerosol have diameters typically less than 1 μm. (Wikipedia)

新研究洗脫了是那個女人導致王朝覆滅的罪名（1/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

New Research Absolves the Woman Blamed for a Dynasty’s Ruin (1/2)

A Chinese king’s infatuation with a woman was seen as the reason that a golden age collapsed. Evidence suggests climate change and internal strife played bigger roles.

By Andrew Higgins - Reporting from Hejia Village and Xi’an in Shaanxi Province, China

Feb. 14, 2026

Updated 4:05 a.m. ET

Digging deep into a field in northwestern China, archaeologists recently uncovered chariot tracks, plumbing and the remnants of an elaborate city gate dating back more than 3,000 years — all traces of an early Chinese dynasty that has been celebrated by Confucian scholars, and also by the Communist Party, as a model of political and social harmony.

The discoveries suggest that the area that is now farmland west of the city of Xi’an, in Shaanxi Province, is part of the long-vanished capital of the Western Zhou, a dynasty exalted throughout Chinese history as the acme of good governance.

The digging, part of decades-long excavation work in the area, has also shed new light on a bigger question: If the ancient dynasty was so perfect, why did it collapse in chaos, unable to contain external and internal threats? It lasted nearly 300 years but still fell apart in 771 B.C. under pressure from “barbarian” invaders and estranged former allies.

Why seemingly robust political systems crumble has been a central preoccupation of China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, since the 1991 downfall of the Soviet Union. An avid fan of ancient history and archaeology, he visited a museum in Baoji, a city in Shaanxi near the excavation site, in 2024 and inspected ancient bronzes from the Western Zhou dynasty, including one inscribed with “zhongguo,” meaning “middle kingdom,” the earliest known written record of China’s name.

The traditional explanation for the downfall of the Western Zhou, enshrined in the first century B.C. by Sima Qian, the father of Chinese history, is that the dynasty unraveled because of a beautiful woman who bewitched and led astray its ruler, King You.

Recent archaeological and other evidence, however, has debunked this reading of dynastic decline as a morality play. Instead, the new findings highlight the frailties of a rigidly hierarchical political system grown brittle over time that could not withstand disruptions caused by climate change and internal division.

Chong Jianrong, the director of the Shaanxi Institute of Archaeology, who been hunting traces of Western Zhou’s rise and fall for decades, said the woman often blamed for the dynasty’s demise — a concubine named Bao Si — was “just a scapegoat” to explain the ruin of a supposedly golden age.

Edward L. Shaughnessy, a leading American authority on ancient China, said Bao Si’s role in the end of the dynasty “is of course just a fairy tale,” possibly concocted as part of “some sort of factional strife at the Zhou court.”

Hailed by Confucius and his followers as a model undone by lust, the dynasty produced many of the core concepts of Chinese civilization, like the “mandate of heaven,” the idea that a ruler holds power because of good governance and loses it through immoral misbehavior.

But, Mr. Chong said of the fall of Western Zhou, “this is not about a beautiful woman causing trouble.”

A recent study led by Chinese scientists in Beijing has now provided what many historians see as a more plausible theory. Using evidence collected from stalagmites, it blamed rapid climate change. Drought and unusual cold caused by a sudden change in the climate 2,800 years ago — just before the collapse of Western Zhou — played a “critical role” in the dynasty’s demise, according to a study published in Communications Earth & Environment, a sister publication to the British scientific journal Nature.

A separate study based on the analysis of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, which provided a chronology of volcanic activity over two millenniums, found that 62 of 68 Chinese dynastic houses over that period fell after one or more volcanic eruptions — a major cause of short-term climatic shocks throughout history.

Francis Ludlow, an associate professor of medieval environment history at Trinity College, Dublin, who carried out the research with Chinese and other scholars, said in a telephone interview that he had been surprised by the close correlation between volcanic activity and dynastic decline. “There were way too many eruptions just before collapse dates to be just random coincidences,” he said.

(to be continued)

Translation

新研究洗脫了是那個女人導致王朝覆滅的罪名（1/2）

一位中國皇帝對一位女性的迷戀曾被認為是導致一個黃金時代終結的原因。但有證據表明，氣候變遷和內部紛爭才是更大的因素。

考古學家近日在中國西北部的一片田野中挖掘，發現了距今3000多年的戰車痕跡、管道設施以及一座精美城門的遺跡 - 所有這些都是早期中國王朝的痕跡，該王朝曾被儒家學者和中國共產黨譽為政治和社會和諧的典範。

這些發現表明，如今位於陝西省西安市西部的農田，是早已消失的西周王朝都城的一部分。西周王朝在中國歷史上被譽為治國理政的巔峰。

這次發掘是該地區長達數十年的考古發掘工作的一部分，同時也為一個更宏大的問題提供了新的線索：如果這個古代王朝如此完美，為何最終會在混亂中崩潰，無法抵禦內外威脅？西周王朝延續了近300年，卻在西元前771年因「蠻族」入侵者和昔日盟友的關係疏遠而瓦解。

自1991年蘇聯解體以來，看似穩固的政治體系為何會崩潰，一直是中國最高領導人習近平關注的核心議題。作為一名古代歷史和考古學的狂熱愛好者，他於2024年參觀了位於陝西省寶雞市（靠近發掘現場）的一家博物館，並仔細研究了西周時期的青銅器，其中包括一件刻有“中國”字樣的青銅器，這是目前已知最早的“中國”國名文字記載。

司馬遷，這位中國歷史之父，於西元前一世紀確立了對西周衰落的傳統解釋：王朝的瓦解是因為被一位美女迷惑並帶領其統治者周幽王走向歧途。

然而，近期的考古發現和其他證據駁斥了這種將朝代衰落視為一齣道德劇。相反，新的研究成果凸顯等級森嚴的政治體系隨著時間的推移而變得脆弱不堪，無法抵禦氣候變遷和內部紛爭帶來的衝擊。

陝西考古研究所所長Chong Jianrong數十年來致力於研究西周興衰的遺跡。他表示，常被指責為導致西周滅亡的嬪妃褒姒(Bao Si)“只過是個代罪羔羊”，用她來解釋這個所謂黃金時代的覆滅。

美國古代中國研究權威專家Edward L. Shaughnessy則認為，褒姒在西周滅亡中所扮演的角色 “當然只是個傳說” ， 很可能是 “周朝宮廷內部派系鬥爭” 的捏造產物。

西周被孔子及其追隨者譽為因貪欲而覆滅的典範，西周孕育了中國文明的諸多核心概念，例如“天命論”，即統治者因政績卓著而掌權，因不道德的行為而失勢。

但Chong先生談到西周的滅亡時說：“這不是關於一個美女惹麻煩的事。”

北京的中國科學家最近進行的一項研究提出了許多歷史學家認為更合理的理論。該研究利用從石筍中收集的證據，將西周王朝的滅亡歸咎於氣候的快速變化。發表在《通訊地球與環境》（Communications Earth & Environment），英國科學期刊《自然》的姊妹刊）上的這項研究指出，2800年前 就在西周王朝滅亡前夕 - 氣候的突然變化導致出現乾旱和異常寒冷，這對西周王朝的滅亡起到了「關鍵作用」。

另一項則是基於格陵蘭島和南極洲冰芯分析的研究，提供了兩千年來火山活動的年表，發現這段時期中國68個王朝中有62個王朝在一次或多次火山爆發後滅亡 - 火山爆發是歷史上做成短期氣候衝擊的主要原因之一。

都柏林聖三一學院中世紀環境史副教授Francis Ludlow與中國及其他國家的學者共同進行了這項研究。他在電話訪問中表示，火山活動與王朝衰落之間的密切關聯令他感到驚訝。 他說:「在王朝崩潰之前都發生如此多的火山爆發，事情絕非偶然巧合」。

（待續）

中國如何打造晶片產業，為何仍有所不足（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

How China Built a Chip Industry, and Why It’s Still Not Enough (2/2)

More than a decade into Beijing’s push for self sufficiency, Chinese firms are producing fewer, lower-performing chips than their foreign competitors.

The NYT - By Meaghan Tobin reporting from Taipei, Taiwan ; Xinyun Wu contributed reporting from Taipei. Meaghan Tobin covers business and tech stories in Asia with a focus on China and is based in Taipei.

Feb. 14, 2026, 12:00 a.m. ET

(continue)

Huawei’s Pivot

In 2014, China was the world’s largest market for semiconductors. But 90 percent of the chips its companies used were made outside the country.

Concerned about that dependency, the State Council, China’s top governing body, approved a plan to spend billions and made a vow: China would be making every part of its semiconductor supply chain at home by 2030.

Policymakers had reason to be concerned about the risks that foreign technology posed to Chinese infrastructure. Earlier that year, documents provided by the former National Security Agency contractor Edward J. Snowden had disclosed that the U.S. government had monitored the communications of top executives at Huawei.

Then in 2017, President Trump fined the Chinese telecommunications giant ZTE for allegedly violating U.S. sanctions on Iran, crippling its business overnight. Although ZTE does not manufacture chips, the action gave China another lesson in its need for self reliance.

Next came Huawei. The first Trump administration embarked on a global campaign to get countries to stop using Huawei’s equipment in their telecommunications infrastructure. Huawei responded by offloading that business line and getting in step with Beijing’s self-sufficiency program.

“Huawei was unique in its capabilities and its alignment with China’s national goals,” said Kyle Chan, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who studies Chinese industrial policy. “Huawei’s experience was a microcosm of China’s broader experience: suddenly being cut off and now scrambling to build its own.”

Beijing also pushed foreign companies to turn over technology as a price of admission to the China market. Qualcomm, a San Diego tech giant, entered into a joint venture with Huaxintong Semiconductor in 2016. The Chinese government provided land and financing, and Qualcomm offered the technology and about $140 million in initial funding.

During this time, Huawei became one of China’s most popular smartphone makers. And it started working closely with chip factories to make chips for smartphones and A.I. systems.

Huawei has come out with a line of chips that are comparable to some of Nvidia’s older models. But analysts said those chips contained key components that foreign rivals like TSMC and Samsung had made.

Clouds and Clusters

The inability to get essential tools from ASML has been a major chokehold for Chinese chip makers. Since U.S. officials led an effort to lobby the Dutch government to block shipments to China, no Chinese company has been able to buy ASML’s most advanced tools.

Instead, Chinese chip makers have recruited engineers with experience using those machines at TSMC, the world’s top chip maker. And now, Chinese start-ups are trying to make their own chip manufacturing equipment.

A.I. systems require an immense amount of computing power to learn. China’s A.I. companies are trying to get the computing power they need by strapping together numerous less powerful chips. Huawei has taken such an approach, and the Chinese government has built what it calls “intelligent computing clusters” that are essentially state-run data centers.

But those clusters need a lot of chips. Experts and people who work in the industry say China’s most advanced chip maker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Company, which does some work for Huawei, has struggled to produce enough chips. The chips it does produce are prone to defects and use more electricity than cutting-edge foreign ones. SMIC did not respond to a request for comment.

“Manufacturing volume is going to be an issue,” said Kendra Schaefer, a partner at Trivium China, a research and advisory firm.

Nonetheless, multiple Chinese A.I. researchers have reported breakthroughs in finding new ways to link chips together for maximum efficiency. Zhipu said last month that it had built its latest model entirely using Huawei’s chips and software.

So far, the efficiency gains have been limited and have not helped Chinese companies escape the fact that A.I. demands huge quantities of chips.

Another way China’s A.I. companies are getting the computing power they need is by paying cloud providers like Alibaba and Amazon for remote access to massive data centers stocked with powerful chips.

But the strategy is expensive.

Documents filed by Zhipu and Minimax, another Chinese A.I. start-up, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last month show that the two companies are spending a lot more buying cloud services than they are earning in revenue.

Translation

中國如何打造晶片產業，為何仍有所不足（2/2）

 北京推進晶片自給自足已逾十年，但中國企業生產的晶片數量和性能卻不如外國競爭對手

 （繼續）

華為的轉型

2014年，中國是全球最大的半導體市場。但其企業使用的晶片中，90%產自國外。

出於對這種依賴性的擔憂，中國最高決策機構國務院批准了一項數十億美元的計劃，並承諾：到2030年，中國將實現半導體供應鏈所有環節的自主生產。

中國政策制定者有理由擔憂外國技術對中國基礎設施構成的風險。同年早些時候，前美國國家安全局承包商Edward J. Snowden提供的文件披露，美國政府曾監聽華為高層的通訊。

隨後在2017年，特朗普總統以中國涉嫌違反美國對伊朗的製裁為由，對中國電信巨頭中興通訊處以罰款，一夜之間重創了其業務。儘管中興通訊並不生產晶片，但這項舉措再次讓中國認識到自力更生的必要性。

接下來是華為。特朗普第一屆政府發起了一場全球運動，要求各國停止在其電信基礎設施中使用華為的設備。華為的回應是剝離了該業務線，並配合北京的自給自足計劃。

布魯金斯學會研究中國產業政策的研究員Kyle Chan表示:「華為的獨特之處在於其能力以及與中國國家目標的契合度」;「華為的經歷是中國整體經歷的一個縮影：突然被切斷聯繫，現在正努力構建自己的體系」。

北京也要求外國公司交出技術，以此作為進入中國市場的准入條件。總部位於聖地牙哥的科技巨頭Qualcomm於2016年與Huaxintong半導體成立了一家合資企業。中國政府提供土地和資金，而Qualcomm則提供技術和約1.4億美元的初期資金。

在此期間，華為成為中國最受歡迎的智能手機製造商之一。它開始與晶片工廠密切合作，為智能型手機和人工智能系統生產晶片。

華為推出了一系列晶片，其性能可與英偉達的一些早期型號相媲美。但分析師指出，這些晶片包含的關鍵組件是由台積電和三星等外國競爭對手生產的。

雲端和集群

一直是困擾中國晶片製造商的一大難題是無法從ASML獲得關鍵工具。自從美國官員主導遊說荷蘭政府阻止向中國出口ASML設備以來，沒有一家中國公司能夠購買ASML最先進的設備。

取而代之的是，中國晶片製造商從世界頂級晶片製造商台積電（TSMC）招募了擁有相關設備使用經驗的工程師。如今，中國新創公司正嘗試自行研發晶片製造設備。

人工智能系統需要強大的運算能力才能進行學習。中國的人工智能公司正試圖透過將眾多性能較低的晶片組合在一起來獲得所需的運算能力。華為就採用了這種方法，而中國政府也建造了所謂的“智能計算集群”，這些集群本質上是國有數據中心。

但這些集群需要大量的晶片。專家和業內人士表示，中國最先進的晶片製造商 - 中芯國際(SMIC)，它為華為提供部分晶片製造服務 - 一直難以生產足夠的晶片。中芯國際生產的晶片缺陷率高，而且比國外最先進的晶片耗電量更大。中芯國際未對此置評。

研究顧問公司 Trivium China 的合夥人 Kendra Schaefer 表示:「產量將是一個問題」。

儘管如此，多位中國人工智能研究人員報告稱，他們在尋找將晶片連接起來以實現最高效率的新方法方面取得了突破。智普人工智能(Zhipu AI) 上個月表示，其最新型號完全使用了華為的晶片和軟件。

到目前為止，效率提升有限，也未能幫助中國企業擺脫人工智能需要大量晶片的困境。

中國的人工智能公司是獲取所需運算能力的另一種方式是向阿里巴巴和亞馬遜等雲端服務供應商付費，利用遠端去用配備有強大晶片的大型數據中心的服務。

但這種策略成本高。

智普(Zhipu AI)和另一家中國人工智能新創公司 Minimax 上個月向香港證券交易所提交的文件顯示，這兩家公司在購買雲端服務上的支出遠遠超過了它們的收入。

So, in the development of AI, one thing was holding back China: They needed more superfast semiconductors. China’s most advanced chip maker has struggled to produce enough chips. The chips it does produce are prone to defects and use more electricity than cutting-edge foreign ones. One solution for China’s A.I. companies is to get the computing power they need by paying cloud providers such as Alibaba and Amazon for their services, but the strategy is expensive. Apparently, China is facing a dilemma in its development in AI.