癌症疫苗是美國國立衛生研究院的下一個「重大押注」（2/2）

Cancer Vaccines Are the N.I.H.’s Next ‘Big Bet’ (2/2)

New details have emerged about an initiative that starts in December to fast-track the vaccines, similar to the successful push for the Covid-19 vaccine.

The NYT - By Gina Kolata

Oct. 9, 2026

(continue)

Though the public-private partnership will draw inspiration and lessons from the global development of the Covid-19 vaccine, the timeline for the cancer vaccines will be nowhere near as fast. Phase 1 of the initiative, which will consist of small studies, is expected to take about three years and lead to “go-to information on different technical approaches to vaccines,” Dr. Letai said.

Larger trials in Phase 2 are expected to take at least four years, involve a national network of clinical trial sites and lead to definitive results. The ultimate goal, Dr. Adam said, is that “in seven to 10 years, anyone who walks into a doctor’s office can get a vaccine.”

That is still faster than would be expected without the initiative where it can take eight to 15 years to get F.D.A. approval, Dr. Adam said. And work would have been fragmented and uncoordinated.

It was small, fragmented studies with promising results that inspired the initiative.

They included, for example, one involving patients with kidney cancer that was led by Dr. Catherine J. Wu of the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and her colleagues. The researchers took tumor cells from patients with advanced kidney cancer at the time of their initial surgery. Then, for each patient, they created a vaccine designed to attack the tumor’s unique mutations.

It is impossible to know if the patients were entirely cured in such a small study, but all nine were cancer-free after 40 months. Ordinarily, 30 to 50 percent would have relapsed within two years.

Dr. Wu and her colleagues are now developing vaccines for patients with glioblastoma, as well as for those with ovarian cancer.

Another encouraging early study focused on pancreatic cancer. Even with the best treatments, close to 90 percent of patients die within five years, said Dr. Vinod Balachandran of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.

His group conceived the idea for a small study in 2017 and began it in 2019. When a patient had surgery to remove their pancreatic cancer, the investigators collected tumor tissue and shipped it to Genentech and BioNTech, a company that later produced Covid vaccines. The companies pinpointed the mutations unique to a patient’s cancer and then made a customized vaccine.

The investigators treated 16 patients and followed them for up to six years. Seven out of eight who responded to the vaccine are still alive, compared with just two out of the eight who did not respond.

That initial study, though — promising as it was — was not definitive.

“We cannot prove that vaccines are making patients live longer,” Dr. Balachandran said. His group and its industry partners began a much bigger study in 2023, enrolling 260 patients.

Based on what he has seen so far, Dr. Balachandran is hopeful about the future of vaccine therapy. With pancreatic cancer, he took on a cancer thought to be impervious to immune system attacks: “If we crack the toughest nut,” he said, “we can crack the rest.”

Translation

癌症疫苗是美國國立衛生研究院的下一個「重大押注」（2/2）

一項旨在加速癌症疫苗研發的計劃將於12月啟動，其模式與成功推動新冠疫苗研發的模式類似。該計劃的最新細節已經浮現

（繼續）

儘管這項公私合作計劃將從全球新冠疫苗的研發中汲取靈感和經驗，但癌症疫苗的研發速度遠不及新冠疫苗。Letai 博士表示該計劃的第一階段將包括一些小型研究，預計耗時約三年，並導致「成為關於不同疫苗技術方法的參考資訊」。

第二階段的大規模試驗預計至少需要四年時間，將涉及一個覆蓋全國的臨床試驗中心網絡，並最終得出確切結果。Adam 博士表示，最終目標是「在七到十年內，任何走進診所的人都能接種疫苗」。

Adam 博士說，即便如此，速度仍然比在沒有這項計劃下預期的要快得多，因為如果沒有這項計劃，獲得 FDA 批准可能需要8到15年。而且，如果沒有這項計劃，工作將會非常分散且缺乏協調。

正是那些取得令人鼓舞的小型、分散的研究成果促成了這項計劃的誕生。

例如，其中一項研究涉及腎癌患者，由 Dana-Farber 癌症研究所的 Catherine J. Wu 博士及其同事領導。研究人員在患者首次手術時從晚期腎癌患者身上提取了腫瘤細胞。然後，他們為每位患者開發了一種疫苗，旨在攻擊腫瘤特有的突變。

在這樣一項小型研究中，我們無法確定患者是否完全治愈，但所有九名患者在40個月後均未出現癌症復發。通常情況下，30%到50%的患者會在兩年內復發。

Wu博士及其同事目前正在研發針對膠質母細胞瘤和卵巢癌患者的疫苗。

另一項令人鼓舞的早期研究聚焦於胰臟癌。Memorial Sloan Kettering 癌症中心的 Vinod Balachandran 博士表示，即使接受最好的治療，近90%的患者也會在五年內死亡。

他的團隊在2017年構思了一項小型研究，並於2019年啟動。當患者接受胰臟癌切除手術時，研究人員會收集腫瘤組織並將其送到 Genentech 和 BioNTech， 即那家後來研發出新冠疫苗的公司。這兩家公司會確定患者癌症特有的突變，然後研發度身定做的疫苗。

研究人員對16名患者進行了治療，並對他們進行了長達六年的追蹤。 8名對疫苗有反應的患者中，7名仍存活；而8名沒有反應的患者中，只有2名仍存活。

然而，這項初步研究 - 儘管前景可觀 - 卻並非是最終定論。

Balachandran 博士說: 「我們無法證實疫苗是能真的延長患者的壽命」。他的團隊及其產業夥伴於2023年啟動了一項規模更大的研究，招募了260名患者。

根據目前所見，Balachandran 博士對疫苗療法的未來充滿希望。他曾攻克胰腺癌，這種癌症一度被認為能抵禦免疫系統攻擊的癌症 - 他說:“如果我們能攻克最難攻克的難題”，“我們就能攻克其他難題。”

              So, a new type of cancer treatment by using vaccines is so promising that it demands a national effort to expedite researches that will involve many medical institutes in the US to work together to develop and test the new vaccines. The ultimate goal is that in seven to 10 years, anyone who walks into a doctor’s office can get a vaccine. Apparently, this is good news for everyone.

Note:

1.Genentech and BioNTech are two separate, independent companies. Although they have partnered on major medical research projects, they have completely distinct corporate identities, history, and parent structures. The two companies are frequently mentioned together because they entered into a high-profile, multi-million-dollar strategic collaboration to co-develop individualized mRNA-based cancer immunotherapies. (Google)

癌症疫苗是美國國立衛生研究院的下一個「重大押注」（1/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Cancer Vaccines Are the N.I.H.’s Next ‘Big Bet’ (1/2)

New details have emerged about an initiative that starts in December to fast-track the vaccines, similar to the successful push for the Covid-19 vaccine.

The NYT - By Gina Kolata

Oct. 9, 2026

A new type of cancer treatment — vaccines — is so promising that it demands a national effort to expedite discoveries, said the director of the National Cancer Institute, Dr. Anthony Letai.

“We can do things that would not otherwise be done,” he said of new resources being made available at the National Institutes of Health. “We can place big bets on new ideas.”

The big bet is a planned public-private partnership involving the N.I.H, the nonprofit Foundation for the N.I.H., researchers, pharmaceutical and biotech companies, advocacy groups, philanthropies and patients, all working together to develop and test the vaccines.

The vaccines are treatments that are unique to each patient by prompting the immune system to attack a patient’s specific cancer. The injections teach the immune system’s T cells to home in on aberrant proteins found on a patient’s tumor and nowhere else.

“We hope this will be like Covid vaccines,” said Stacey Adam, a senior clinical officer at the Foundation for the N.I.H., referring to the public-private partnership that led to the rapid development of vaccines for the coronavirus.

She said the vaccine program was expected to begin in December, starting with a focus on pancreatic cancer, liver cancer and colorectal cancer, as well as a subset of pediatric tumors.

An unpublished white paper report, which was shared exclusively with The New York Times, explains the vaccine initiative and states that what is now possible with vaccines was “largely theoretical a decade ago.”

The project is still a bet: There is no guarantee that the early promise of cancer vaccines will pay off. The history of medicine is littered with tales of treatments that seemed incredible in early studies only to fail in larger tests.

Yet enthusiasm for the vaccines is running high.

“This is a completely new frontier,” said Karen Knudsen, the chief executive officer of the Parker Institute. The institute has two representatives working with the N.I.H. initiative and is also funding vaccine studies, positioning them as one of its main priorities.

Initial results from studies of vaccines for melanoma, pancreatic cancer, renal cell cancer and even glioblastoma — the brain cancer that has so far resisted all forms of treatment — are “incredibly encouraging,” Dr. Knudsen said.

Cancer vaccines are different from the Covid-19 vaccines or vaccines for other diseases like the measles or flu. Those vaccines prevent disease. Cancer vaccines, however, attack a cancer that is already present.

But they are similar to the Covid vaccine because most use mRNA technology, which had fallen out of favor with the Trump administration.

So far, just one vaccine study has been large enough to show definitive results. It involved 1,137 people with advanced melanoma.

Merck and Moderna, which conducted the study, reported in August that the vaccine increased the time before cancers recurred and increased the time before they spread. The companies plan to reveal the full data set later this month.

Dr. Adam was optimistic: “The science is there, the technologies are there,” she said.

“Everything is coming to a head,” she added. “Now is the time to jump start.”

(to be continued)

Translation

癌症疫苗是美國國立衛生研究院的下一個「重大押注」（1/2）

一項旨在加速癌症疫苗研發的計劃將於12月啟動，其模式與成功推動新冠疫苗研發的模式類似。該計劃的最新細節已經浮現

美國國家癌症研究所所長 Anthony Letai 博士表示，一種新型癌症療法 - 疫苗 - 其前景如此光明，需要舉全國之力加快其研發進程。

他談到美國國立衛生研究院 (N.I.H) 正有新資源可用時說：“我們可以做一些以前做不到的事情。我們可以對新理念進行重大押注。

這項重大押注是一項計劃中的公私合作項目，參與者包括美國國立衛生研究院、非營利組織美國國立衛生研究院基金會、研究人員、製藥和生物技術公司、倡導團體、慈善機構和患者，他們將共同致力於疫苗的研發和測試。

這些疫苗是針對每位患者度身定制的治療方案，旨在激發免疫系統攻擊患者特定的癌症。注射的疫苗能夠訓練免疫系統的T細胞，使其精準辨識並攻擊患者腫瘤上存在的異常蛋白，而不會攻擊其他的部位。

美國國立衛生研究院基金會高級臨床官員 Stacey Adam 說:「我們希望這能像新冠疫苗一樣成功」。她指的是促成新冠病毒疫苗快速研發的公私合作模式。

她表示，疫苗計劃預計12月啟動，初期將聚焦在胰臟癌、肝癌和大腸癌，以及部分兒童腫瘤。

一份尚未發表的白皮書報告（獨家提供給《紐約時報》）解釋了這項疫苗計劃，並指出，如今疫苗所能實現的，在「十年前還只是理論上的設想」。

該計劃仍是一個押注：癌症疫苗早期的預期能否最終實現尚無定論。醫學史上充斥著這樣的例子：有些療法在早期研究中看似難以置信，但在更大規模的試驗中卻以失敗告終。

然而，人們對疫苗的熱情卻異常高漲。

帕克研究所執行長 Karen Knudsen 說:「這是一個全新的領域」。該研究所派出兩名代表參與美國國立衛生研究院（NIH）的疫苗研發計劃，並資助疫苗研究，將其列為主要優先事項之一。

Dr. Knudsen 博士表示，針對黑色素瘤、胰腺癌、腎細胞癌，甚至膠質母細胞瘤（一種迄今為止對所有治療方法都無效的腦癌）的疫苗研究的初步結果「令人鼓舞」。

癌症疫苗與新冠疫苗或其他疾病（如麻疹或流感）的疫苗不同。後者的疫苗旨在預防疾病，而癌症疫苗則針對已存在的癌細胞進行攻擊。

但它們與新冠疫苗也有相似之處，因為大多數癌症疫苗都採用了 mRNA 技術，而這項技術曾一度被特朗普政府所摒棄。

迄今為止，只有一項疫苗研究的規模足夠大，能夠得出明確的結果。研究納入了1,137名晚期黑色素瘤患者。

進行這項研究的 Merck and Moderna 公司在8月報告稱，該疫苗拖慢了癌症復發和擴散的時間。兩家公司計劃在本月稍後公佈完整的數據集。

Adam 博士對此持樂觀態度- 她說: 「科學已經成熟，技術也已到位」。

她補充道: “一切都到了關鍵時刻”; “現在是行動的時候了。”

（待續）

在與美國的競爭中，中國難以吸引外國人工智能研究人員

 Recently The New York Times reported the following:

In Race with U.S., China Struggles to Recruit Foreign A.I. Researchers

China’s booming artificial intelligence sector has given local researchers good reason to remain in the country, but it has yet to lure overseas scientists despite a government push.

The NYT - By Zeyi Yang

Oct. 6, 2026

As the United States and China vie for A.I. dominance, the Trump administration has made it more difficult for companies to hire foreign researchers, while China has made recruiting the world’s best scientists a national priority.

Over the past two years, China has flung open its doors to international researchers, introducing a visa for scientists and offering lucrative research grants.

Despite those efforts, foreigners are not coming.

Worse still for China’s ambitions, the number of Chinese scientists working in the United States has risen rather than declined, according to a new study about global A.I. research. 

For every 30 Chinese researchers in the United States working on artificial intelligence in 2025, only one in China made the opposite journey, according to the study, conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank.

“Despite U.S.-China tensions, the number of Chinese-origin researchers working in the U.S. actually rose by four percentage points rather than declined” compared with three years ago, said Damien Ma, who led the study.

The study determined the flow of scientists around the world by examining research papers accepted by last year’s NeurIPS, an academic conference focused on machine learning and computational neuroscience. Mr. Ma and his team analyzed where the papers’ authors went to college, received graduate degrees and ended up working.

The results affirm the popular understanding that the United States and China are the two places where most frontier A.I. research is being produced. While China is failing to recruit foreign researchers, the study found, it is seeing a boon in retaining local talent, people who have risen though the domestic education system and are increasingly choosing not to seek work overseas. The United States, on the other hand, maintains its lead by employing foreign researchers, many of whom previously emigrated from China, as well as India, South Korea and elsewhere.

The Carnegie study counts those researchers who migrated from one country to another, but it does not indicate when a researcher moved. One explanation for why the number of Chinese scientists working in America remains high is that they arrived before the Trump administration imposed restrictions on obtaining visas and cut research funding last year.

“There is a delay effect — the researchers in this study mostly made their decisions years ago to study or work here,” said Yingyi Ma, a sociology professor at Syracuse University who studies Asian students in the United States. “The danger for the U.S. is a slow erosion of its appeal to attract talent that compounds over decades. By the time the effect shows up in the data, it is hard to reverse.”

For years, Chinese scientists and their peers from around the world were drawn to the United States, which offered career opportunities at start-ups and ample academic funding. But China has gained significant ground in recent years as an alternative for A.I. researchers.

In 2022, only six of the top 30 institutions publishing papers at NeurIPS were based in China; in 2025, that number rose to 12. Peking University and Tsinghua University, two of China’s top academic institutions, sat at the top of the chart, eclipsing American heavyweights like M.I.T., Stanford and Carnegie Mellon. Chinese researchers also made up 41 percent of the published authors at NeurIPS last year, eclipsing U.S. researchers, who stood at 34 percent.

Today, China has an abundance of workplaces for A.I. researchers, including well-funded universities, big tech companies and start-ups, said Kevin Xu, the founder of Interconnected Capital, a hedge fund that invests in A.I. technologies. As Chinese companies like DeepSeek and Moonshot repeatedly make names for themselves on the global stage, they also become more attractive to top talent.

“The fact that being able to work at DeepSeek gives you just as much professional prestige and future success as working at OpenAI is quite different from what we’ve observed five years ago, when the path was between working at Google versus Tencent,” Mr. Xu said.

The ascendancy of Chinese companies might explain why a vast majority of Chinese A.I. researchers choose to remain in the country. But, Mr. Xu added, there’s another reason some researchers remain in China: The government is unwilling to let them go.

This year, the Chinese government restricted the two founders of Manus, an A.I. start-up that was set to be acquired by Meta for $2 billion, from leaving the country. Since then, travel by Chinese A.I. entrepreneurs and researchers — as well as by their spouses and children — has been further curtailed, according to a recent Bloomberg report.

While China is struggling to recruit foreign talent, it has made some gains in its effort to encourage Chinese researchers and executives abroad  to return.

The Chinese tech giant Tencent last year appointed Yao Shunyu, a former OpenAI researcher, as its chief A.I. scientist. The move was seen as one of the most notable examples of an A.I. researcher returning to China after having studied and worked in the West.

Despite China’s new offers of visas and grant money, Silicon Valley still provides more attractive offers and investment opportunities than China for American researchers. Also, moving to a country with few immigrants and a different language is always going to be a challenge.

“For everybody else who’s outside the walled garden, culturally or digitally, it’s still very hard to break into,” Mr. Xu said.

Translation

在與美國的競爭中，中國難以吸引外國人工智能研究人員

中國蓬勃發展的人工智能產業讓本土研究人員有充分的理由留在國內，但儘管政府大力推動，仍未能吸引海外科學家

隨著中美兩國在人工智能領域展開激烈競爭，特朗普政府加大了企業聘用外國研究人員的難度，而中國則將招募全球頂尖科學家列為國家優先事項。

過去兩年，中國向國際研究人員敞開了大門，推出了科學家簽證，並提供豐厚的研究經費。

儘管如此，外國人仍然沒有來。

更糟的是，一項關於全球人工智能研究的新研究表明，在美國工作的中國科學家人數不降反升。

卡內基國際和平基金會（一家智庫）進行的一項研究顯示，在2025年在美国，從事人工智能研究的中国研究人员每增加30人，在中国，做出了相反選擇 [即前往中国從事人工智能研究] 的就只有1人。

該研究的負責人 Damien Ma 表示：“儘管中美關係緊張，但與三年前相比，在美國工作的華裔研究人員數量實際上增加了4個百分點，而不是下降。”

這項研究透過分析去年 NeurIPS（專注於機器學習和計算神經科學的學術會議）接收的研究論文，來確定全球科學家的流動情況。Ma及其團隊分析了論文作者的大學、研究生學位和最終工作地點。

研究結果證實了人們普遍的看法，即美國和中國是人工智能前沿研究的主要產地。研究發現，儘管中國在吸引外國研究人員方面進展緩慢，但卻在留住本土人才方面取得了顯著成效。這些人才大多透過國內教育體系脫穎而出，並且越來越傾向於留在國內工作，而不是出國謀生。另一方面，美國則透過聘用外國研究人員保持領先地位，其中許多人先前來自中國，以及印度、韓國和其他國家。

卡內基研究所的這項研究統計了從一個國家移居到另一個國家的研究人員，但並未指出研究人員移居的具體時間。中國科學家在美國工作的數量仍然居高不下的一個解釋是，他們在特朗普政府去年實施簽證限制和削減科研經費之前就已經抵達美國。

Syracuse大學研究在美國亞裔學生的社會學教授 Yingyi Ma 表示: 「這存在滯後效應 - 這項研究中的研究人員大多在幾年前就決定來美國學習或工作」，「美國面臨的危險在於，其吸引人才的吸引力正在緩慢下降，這種下降會持續數十年。等到這種影響在數據中顯現出來時，就很難逆轉了」。

多年來，中國科學家和世界各地的同行都被美國吸引，因為美國提供了新創公司的職業機會和充足的學術經費。但近年來，中國作為人工智能研究人員的另一選擇，已經取得了顯著進展。

2022年，在 NeurIPS 會議上發表論文排名前30的機構中，只有6家位於中國；到2025年，這一數字上升至12家。北京大學和清華大學這兩所中國頂尖學府位居榜首，超越了麻省理工學院、史丹佛大學和卡內基美隆大學等美國學術強校。去年，中國研究人員在 NeurIPS 會議的論文作者中佔比高達41%，超過了佔34%的美國研究人員。

專注於人工智能投資的對沖基金 Interconnected Capital 的創始人 Kevin Xu 表示如今，中國為人工智能研究人員提供了大量的工作場所，包括資金雄厚的大學、大型科技公司和新創公司。隨著 DeepSeek 和 Moonshot 等中國公司在國際舞台上不斷嶄露頭角，它們對頂尖人才的吸引力也日益增強。

Xu表示： “如今，在 DeepSeek 工作與在 OpenAI 工作一樣，都能獲得同樣的職業聲望和未來成功，這與我們五年前觀察到的情況截然不同。當時，人們的選擇往往是在谷歌和騰訊之間做出抉擇。”

中國公司的崛起或許可以解釋為什麼絕大多數中國人工智能研究人員選擇留在國內。但Xu補充道，有些研究人員留在中國還有另一個原因：政府不願意放他們離開。

今年，中國政府限制了人工智能新創公司Manus的兩名創辦人離境。 Manus 原本計劃被 Meta 以20億美元收購。根據彭博社最近的一篇報道，此後，中國人工智能企業家和研究人員及其配偶和子女的出行進一步受到限制。

儘管中國在吸引外籍人才方面面臨挑戰，但在鼓勵海外中國研究人員和高階主管回國方面已取得一些進展。

去年，中國科技巨頭騰訊任命前 OpenAI 研究員 Yao Shunyu 為首席人工智能科學家。此舉被視為人工智能研究人員在西方學習和工作後回國的最顯著案例之一。

儘管中國提供了新的簽證和資助，但對美國研究人員而言，矽谷仍然比中國更具吸引力，提供更多投資機會。此外，移居到一個有較少移民且語言不同的國家始終充滿挑戰。

Xu說: 「對於身處『封閉式花園』之外的所有人來說，無論是在文化上還是在數位領域，想要融入其中仍然非常困難」。

So, China has made recruiting the world’s best scientists a national priority. Over the past two years, China has open its doors to international researchers, introducing a visa for scientists and offering huge research grants. Despite those efforts, foreigners are not coming. It seems that for American researchers, Silicon Valley still provides more attractive offers and investment opportunities than China. Apparently, moving to a country with few immigrants and a different language will always be a challenge.

支撐中國出口熱潮的隱藏政策（2/2）

The Hidden Policies That Power China’s Export Boom (2/2)

Huge tax breaks and a weak currency sustain exports, widen the government budget deficit and complicate the country’s efforts to rebalance its economy.

The NYT - By Keith Bradsher, Ruoxin Zhang contributed research.

Oct. 6, 2026, 12:00 a.m. ET

(continue)

Beijing has been cautious about allowing meaningful appreciation. Policymakers are well aware of Europe’s unhappiness, but remain wary that a rapid rise in the renminbi would slow the country’s vast export machine.

The same caution applies to export tax rebates. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, they consumed about a tenth of tax revenue. Now, as exports surge while much of the domestic economy stagnates, they account for nearly one-eighth.

China has announced plans to halt tax rebates for battery exporters next year. Some influential economists are urging the government to go much further.

“Export tax rebates, which are essentially a form of export subsidy, should be reduced,” said Huang Qifan, a former mayor of Chongqing and an influential Chinese economist, in a speech in May.

The reasons for Beijing’s reluctance to jeopardize exports can be seen in Guangzhou, a metropolis in southern China’s Pearl River Delta and the heart of China’s garment export industry.

On Haizhu Island, dozens of men and women loitered at an outdoor hiring area late one afternoon after waiting hours for anyone willing to pay them $45 to $60 for a day of sewing.

“Business has slowed down — the first half of the year was a little better, but things are really bad now,” said a worker at the hiring area who gave only his family name, Liu.

China’s housing crash has crippled domestic demand for new clothes, while tariffs and competition from lower-wage countries have hurt exports. Day labor rates occasionally reached as high as $150 a few years ago, when exports and domestic demand were much stronger, said the owner of a sewing machine distributorship whose family name is Yi.

“Compared with previous years, our business is down by at least a third this year — you could even say it’s close to half,” he said.

Such weakness helps explain why Beijing is reluctant to risk policies that could further undermine exports. Until 2022, the currency gradually strengthened in inflation-adjusted terms for many years, according to the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, which has tracked the renminbi’s weakness.

That changed after a stringent Covid lockdown began in Shanghai in March 2022. Consumer confidence plunged to the lowest level in 36 years of government record-keeping, while companies and households sought to move savings out of China. The renminbi started a long decline that eventually took it down about 20 percent.

The slide coincided with the collapse of China’s housing market. Prices for existing homes have fallen about 40 percent since the summer of 2021, eroding household savings and further weakening consumer spending.

The renminbi has strengthened somewhat over the past 15 months, but it remains far below pre-Covid levels after adjusting for inflation.

Currency movements can take time to alter decisions companies make about where they buy components and other supplies. American importers tend not to look for new suppliers unless a currency moves sharply against the dollar, said Joe Jurken, the managing director of ABC Group, a Milwaukee-based supply chain consultancy.

“A 15 percent appreciation would open up eyes and start some discussions,” he said.

A weak currency is not the only reason for China’s export strength. Chinese companies have become formidable competitors through innovation in sectors such as batteries, electric vehicles and solar panels. Fierce domestic competition has also pushed manufacturers to cut costs and prices.

But some economists argue that those low prices also reflect weaknesses in the domestic economy, including pressure on wages and corporate profits.

“The high quality and low price of Chinese goods is a global triumph, but it is built on the suppressed wages and squeezed margins of Chinese workers and enterprises,” wrote Zhao Jian, the founding dean of the Xijing Research Institute, a commercial research foundation, in a commentary on Sept. 22 in Caixin, a Chinese business publication.

Bert Hofman, a former China country director for the World Bank, said reducing tax rebates might have a bigger impact than allowing the renminbi to appreciate in terms of freeing up government revenue for domestic priorities.

“China benefits by increasing revenues, which they can use to increase government spending on health and education,” he said.

Translation

支撐中國出口熱潮的隱藏政策（2/2）

巨額稅收優惠和疲軟的人民幣支撐著出口，擴大了政府預算赤字，並使中國經濟再平衡的努力更加複雜

（繼續）

北京一直對人民幣大幅升值持謹慎態度。政策制定者深知歐洲的不滿，但仍擔心人民幣快速升值會減緩中國龐大的出口體系。

同樣的謹慎也適用於出口退稅。在新冠疫情爆發前，出口退稅約佔稅收收入的十分之一。如今，隨著出口激增而國內經濟大部分停滯不前，出口退稅佔接近八分之一。

中國已宣佈計劃明年停止對電池出口商的退稅。一些有影響力的經濟學家敦促政府採取更進一步的措施。

重慶前市長、中國著名經濟學家Huang Qifan在五月份的一次演講中表示：“出口退稅本質上是一種出口補貼，應該減少。”

北京不願讓出口受阻的原因，在廣州 - 一座位於中國南方珠江三角洲的大都市，也是中國服裝出口產業的中心 - 可見一斑。

在海珠島，有一天下午，幾十名男女在露天招工場外徘徊，他們已經等了好幾個小時，希望能找到一份縫紉工作，報酬是每天45到60美元。

在招工場一位只透露自己姓Liu的工人說道:「生意下滑了 - 上半年稍微好一些，但現在情況很糟糕」。

中國的房地產市場崩盤嚴重打擊了國內對新衣的需求，而關稅和低工資國家的競爭也損害了出口。一位姓Yi的縫紉機經銷店老闆說，幾年前，當出口和內需都十分強勁時，日工工資偶爾能達到150美元。

他說:「與往年相比，我們今年的生意至少下滑了三分之一，甚至可以說接近一半」。

這種疲軟態勢有助於解釋北京為何不願冒險推行可能進一步削弱出口的政策。根據位於瑞士巴塞爾的國際清算銀行（該行一直追蹤人民幣的疲軟走勢）的數據顯示，在2022年之前，人民幣經通膨調整後多年來持續走強。

但這種情況在2022年3月上海開始實施嚴格的疫情封鎖後發生了變化。消費者信心跌至政府有記錄36年來的最低水平，企業和家庭紛紛將儲蓄轉移出境。人民幣開始長期下跌，最終跌幅達約20%。

人民幣的暴跌恰逢中國房地產市場崩盤。自2021年夏季以來，現有房屋價格已下跌約40%，侵蝕了家庭儲蓄，並進一步削弱了消費支出。

過去15個月人民幣匯率回升，但經通膨調整後，仍遠低於新冠疫情前的水準。

匯率波動需要一段時間才能影響企業在零件和其他供應品採購的決策。總部位於Milwaukee的供應鏈諮詢公司ABC集團董事總經理Joe Jurken表示，除非某種貨幣對美元匯率大幅波動，否則美國進口商通常不會尋找新的供應商。

他說:「15%的升值幅度會引起關注，並引發一些討論」。

人民幣疲軟並非中國出口強勁的唯一原因。中國企業透過在電池、電動車和太陽能板等領域的創新，已成為強大的競爭對手。激烈的中國國內競爭也促使製造商降低成本和價格。

但一些經濟學家認為，這些低價也反映了國內經濟的疲軟，包括薪資和企業利潤面臨的壓力。

西京研究院創始院長Zhao Jian 9月22日在財新網發表評論文章稱：“中國商品的高品質和低價格在全球範圍內取得了巨大成功，但這卻是建立在壓低中國工人和企業工資、壓縮利潤的基礎之上的。”

世界銀行前中國區主任Bert Hofman表示，減少稅收優惠可能比人民幣升值更能有效釋放政府財政收入，用於國內優先事項。

他指出：“中國可以透過增加財政收入獲益，並將這些收入用於增加政府在醫療和教育方面的支出。”

So, China has kept its export engine roaring with a combination of tax refund and a weak currency, helping sustain economic growth at home while sending a surge of Chinese goods into markets abroad. But that strategy is fueling tension with its trading partners. Europe’s leaders say China tilts the scale with government subsidies and low-interest loans to its manufacturers, flooding European markets with inexpensive goods. While the high quality and low price of Chinese goods is a global triumph, apparently, it is built on the suppressed wages and squeezed margins of Chinese workers and enterprises.

支撐中國出口熱潮的隱藏政策（1/2）

 Recently The New York Times reported the following:

The Hidden Policies That Power China’s Export Boom (1/2)

Huge tax breaks and a weak currency sustain exports, widen the government budget deficit and complicate the country’s efforts to rebalance its economy.

The NYT - By Keith Bradsher, Ruoxin Zhang contributed research.

Oct. 6, 2026, 12:00 a.m. ET

China has kept its export engine roaring with a combination of tax rebates and a weak currency, helping sustain economic growth at home while sending a surge of Chinese goods into markets abroad.

But that strategy is fueling tension with its trading partners. And this week, officials from Brussels arriving in Beijing are preparing to press Chinese officials about a European trade deficit with China that exceeds $1.1 billion a day.

Europe’s leaders say China tilts the scale with government subsidies and low-interest loans to its manufacturers, flooding European markets with inexpensive goods.

But subsidies are only part of the advantage Chinese exporters enjoy. The renminbi, China’s currency, remains unusually weak, making China’s goods cheaper overseas. At the same time, Beijing refunds exporters hundreds of billions of dollars a year in taxes, further lowering their costs.

Both policies have become difficult for China to unwind.

The renminbi is down more than 14 percent in inflation-adjusted terms from its early-2022 level against a broad set of currencies. Over roughly the same period, China’s trade surplus has nearly doubled. While the weak currency helps exporters, it also makes foreign goods more costly for Chinese consumers and businesses.

China’s export tax rebates have also surged. Rebates to export companies for value-added taxes reached $318.2 billion last year, equivalent to 1.5 percent of China’s economy, according to data from the country’s Ministry of Finance.

Together, the weak currency and extensive tax rebates capture the dilemma facing Chinese policymakers. Exports are one of the few bright spots in an economy weighed down by plunging apartment prices and weak consumer spending. Maintaining export momentum is important to Beijing’s goal of 4.5 percent to 5 percent economic growth. But supporting those exports carries high costs at home and abroad.

A weak renminbi raises the cost of oil and other imports, squeezing households already reluctant to spend. Export tax rebates drain government revenues when many local governments are struggling with the financial fallout from the housing downturn.

For China’s trading partners, Europe in particular, resentment has been building, prompting more protectionist policies.

“We need to rebalance our economic ties to ensure they are fair, sustainable and mutually beneficial — the current situation is unsustainable,” said Caspar Veldkamp, the European Union ambassador to China, in a speech on Sept. 22.

With China on track to match or exceed last year’s record global trade surplus of $1.19 trillion, allowing the renminbi to strengthen and reducing tax rebates could ease some pressure from overseas. But either step could also damage one of the economy’s few remaining engines of growth.

Some prominent Chinese economists have begun arguing that a stronger currency may benefit China by lowering the cost of oil and other imports priced in dollars. China’s central bank and state-owned banks intervene heavily in currency markets to set the renminbi's value, although market forces also play a role.

“We need to reassess the issue of exchange rates: An appreciation of the renminbi is not necessarily entirely negative, while depreciation may not effectively boost exports,” said Shen Guobing, an economics professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, in a speech last December.

(to be continued)

Translation

支撐中國出口熱潮的隱藏政策（1/2）

巨額稅收減免和疲軟的人民幣支撐著出口，擴大了政府預算赤字，並使中國經濟再平衡的努力更加複雜

中國透過稅務優惠和疲軟的人民幣，維持了出口引擎的強勁運轉，這不僅有助於維持國內經濟成長，也使大量中國商品湧入海外市場。

但這項策略正在加劇與貿易夥伴的緊張關係。本週，抵達北京的布魯塞爾官員準備就每天超過11億美元的歐洲對華貿易逆差問題向中國官員施壓。

歐洲領導人表示，中國透過政府補貼和低利率貸款向其製造商提供資金，使大量廉價商品湧入歐洲市場，從而扭曲了貿易平衡。

但補貼只是中國出口商享有的優勢之一。人民幣（中國貨幣）持續走弱，使得中國商品在海外更具價格優勢。同時，北京每年向出口商退還數千億美元的稅款，進一步降低了他們的成本。

這兩項政策都難以逆轉。

經通膨調整後，人民幣兌多種貨幣匯率較2022年初水準下跌超過14%。同期，中國的貿易順差幾乎翻了一番。人民幣疲軟固然有利於出口商，但也增加了中國消費者和企業購買外國商品的成本。

中國的出口退稅額也大幅增加。根據財政部數據顯示，去年出口企業獲得的增值稅退稅額高達3,182億美元，相當於中國經濟總量的1.5%。

人民幣疲軟和巨額退稅共同構成了中國決策者面臨的兩難。在房價暴跌和消費疲軟的雙重拖累下，出口成為中國經濟少數的亮點之一。維持出口動能對北京實現4.5%至5%的經濟成長目標至關重要。然而，支持出口需要付出高昂的國內外代價。

人民幣疲軟推高了石油和其他進口商品的價格，進一步擠壓了本已不願意消費的家庭。出口退稅政策也消耗了政府財政收入，而許多地方政府正努力應對房地產市場低迷帶來的財政衝擊。

對中國的貿易夥伴，尤其是歐洲而言，不滿情緒日益高漲，促使他們採取更多保護主義政策。

歐盟駐華大使Caspar Veldkamp在9月22日的演講中表示:「我們需要重新平衡經濟聯繫，確保其公平、可持續且互利共贏 - 目前的狀況是不可持續的」。

中國可望實現與去年創紀錄的1.19兆美元全球貿易順差持平或超過這一數字，允許人民幣升值並減少稅收優惠或許能夠緩解部分海外壓力。但這兩項措施都可能損害中國經濟為數不多的成長引擎之一。

一些中國知名經濟學家開始認為，人民幣升值或許能夠降低以美元計價的石油和其他進口商品的成本，使中國受益。儘管市場力量也發揮作用，但中國央行和國有銀行仍大力幹預外匯市場以決定人民幣匯率。

上海復旦大學經濟學教授Shen Guobing去年12月在一次演講中表示:「我們需要重新評估匯率問題：人民幣升值未必完全是壞事，而人民幣貶值也未必能有效提振出口」。

（待續）

新型太陽能板是美國追趕中國的最佳希望（2/2）

 Recently The New York Times reported the following:

New Crop of Solar Panels Is the U.S.’s Best Hope of Catching China (2/2)

Th NYT - By Ivan Penn (Ivan Penn is a reporter based in Los Angeles and covers the energy industry. His work has included reporting on clean energy, failures in the electric grid and the economics of utility services.)

Oct. 5, 2026

(continue)

The technology for modern solar panels was created at AT&T’s Bell Labs in 1954. But broad use of it didn’t take off until the 1980s as the devices became more efficient at converting sunshine into electricity. Improvements helped lower costs and have made the technology the cheapest way to generate electricity.

In recent years, energy companies have also figured out how to pair solar panels with batteries to supply energy hours after the sun has set. Solar and batteries accounted for 70 percent of the capacity added to U.S. grids in the first half of this year, according to Wood Mackenzie, an energy research firm.

Solar energy made up nearly 9 percent of the electricity produced in the United States in 2025, up from 3 percent in 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Widespread use of tandem panels could significantly increase solar’s share of the country’s electricity, helping to satisfy the surging demand for power from data centers used to develop artificial intelligence.

Energy analysts evaluate the dependability of different sources of power by measuring their capacity factors. In theory, a power source that can supply electricity 24 hours a day, 365 days a year would have a capacity factor of 100 percent. But no power plants operate at that level because they require maintenance, upgrades, refueling and so on.

Nuclear plants typically offer the highest capacity factors, in the low 90s. Large natural gas power plants generally operate at about 58 percent, while U.S. solar farms average roughly 24 percent, according to the E.I.A. That is primarily because they produce electricity only when the sun is shining and cannot convert all of the light they receive into usable energy.

Solar executives assert that tandem panels could have capacity factors of more than 31 percent. As a result, energy companies would be able to generate the same electricity on less land and with fewer materials.

“If you build a utility field, you need fewer cables,” said Mr. Fertig of Qcells. “If you have a rooftop, you can get the same power out of less of your rooftop.”

Qcells became the first manufacturer to make a tandem panel that has been independently certified under  standards established by Underwriters Laboratories and the International Electrotechnical Commission, two groups that validate and set standards for various products.

Another company working on such devices — Tandem PV in Fremont, Calif. — says it has been testing panels under various conditions across the country for the last year.

“We’re showing less than 1 percent degradation per year,” Scott Wharton, chief executive of Tandem PV, a name that refers to the photovoltaic technology used to convert sunlight into electricity. He added that tandem solar panels would dominate the industry by the mid-2030s. “There’s no debate in the industry that we will move to tandems.”

The design of tandem panels favors First Solar, one of the few U.S. manufacturers that survived as Chinese producers became dominant. First Solar’s products use a thin film material that other manufactures would most likely need to perfect to make the layers in tandem panels.

“We’ve invested over $2 billion in thin film research and development, including this program,” said Mark Widmar, chief executive of First Solar, in Phoenix.

Some energy companies have bought early versions of the tandem panels to ensure that they do not get left behind, said Wayne Li, a principal at the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit research organization. How dependable and durable the panels are will require extensive third-party testing, he added.

“Manufacturers are not very open to share the details and the data,” Mr. Li said.

Translation

新型太陽能板是美國追趕中國的最佳希望（2/2）

 （繼續）

現代太陽能板的技術於1954年由AT&T貝爾實驗室研發。但直到1980年代，隨著太陽能板將陽光轉化為電能的效率不斷提高，其應用才開始廣泛普及。技術的改進降低了成本，使其成為最經濟的發電方式。

近年來，能源公司還找到了將太陽能電池板與蓄電池結合使用的方法，以便在日落後數小時內繼續供電。根據能源研究公司Wood Mackenzie的數據顯示，今年上半年，太陽能和蓄電池的發電容量佔美國電網新增容量的70%。

根據美國能源資訊署（EIA），太陽能發電佔美國2025年總發電量的近9%，由2020年的3%上升。

串聯式太陽能電池板的廣泛應用有望顯著提高太陽能在美國電力供應中的佔比，從而滿足用於人工智能開發的数據庫日益增長的電力需求。

能源分析師透過測量容量係數(capacity factors)來評估不同能源的可靠性。理論上，能夠全年365天、每天24小時不間斷供電的能源，其容量係數將達100%。但實際上，沒有電廠能夠達到如此高的運作效率，因為它們需要維護、升級、燃料補給等等。

核電廠的容量係數通常最高，約90%。大型天然氣發電廠的capacity factors (容量係數) 一般在58%左右，而美國太陽能發電廠的平均容量係數約為24%（數據來自EIA）。這主要是因為它們只有在陽光照射時才能發電，而且無法將所有接收到的光能轉化為可用能量。

太陽能產業高層聲稱，串聯式太陽能板的容量係數可以超過31%。因此，能源公司可以用更少的土地和材料生產相同的電力。

Qcells公司的Fertig說: “如果你建造一個公用設施場，你需要的電纜就會減少” ， “如果你有一個屋頂，你可以用更少的屋頂面積獲得同樣的電力。”

Qcells公司成為第一家生產通過獨立認證的串聯式太陽能板的製造商，其認證標準由美國保險商實驗室（UL）和國際電工委員會（IEC）制定，這兩個機構負責驗證和製定各種產品的標準。

另一家致力於此類設備研發的公司 - 位於加州Fremont的Tandem PV公司 - 表示，過去一年來，他們一直在全國各地對太陽能電池板進行各種條件下的測試。

Tandem PV執行長Scott Wharton說: 「我們的產品每年衰減率不到1%」。 Tandem PV指的是一種將陽光轉化為電能的光伏技術。他補充說，到2030年代中期，串聯式太陽能板將主導整個產業。 “業內人士一致認為，我們將轉向串聯式太陽能電池板。”

 串聯式電池板的設計對First Solar有利，該公司是少數幾家美國製造商之一，在中國製造商佔據主導地位後倖存下來的。 First Solar的產品使用了一種薄膜材料，其他製造商很可能需要進一步完善這種材料才能製造出串聯式電池板中的薄膜層。

First Solar執行長Mark Widmar在鳳凰城表示: 「我們在薄膜研發方面投入了超過20億美元，包括這個項目」。

電力研究院（一家非營利研究機構）負責人Wayne Li表示，一些能源公司已經購買了早期版本的串聯式電池板，以確保自己不會落後。他補充說，這些面板的可靠性和耐用性還需要進行廣泛的第三方測試。

Li 說： “製造商不太願意分享細節和數據。”

              So, companies in the United States are about to make a technological breakthrough that could upend the solar panels making industry, and even challenge China’s leadership in this field. The new kinds of panels can generate 25 percent more energy than most such devices available today. The new technology, known as tandem solar, involves adding second and third layers of material to allow panels to convert more of the sun’s radiance into electricity. Apparently, a widespread use of tandem panels could help satisfy the surging demand for power from data centers used to develop artificial intelligence.

Note:

1. Capacity factor (容量係數) is a performance metric that measures how much electricity a power plant actually produces over a period of time compared to the maximum amount of energy it could theoretically produce if it ran at full power continuously. (Google)

新型太陽能板是美國追趕中國的最佳希望（1/2）

 Recently The New York Times reported the following:

New Crop of Solar Panels Is the U.S.’s Best Hope of Catching China (1/2)

Th NYT - By Ivan Penn (Ivan Penn is a reporter based in Los Angeles and covers the energy industry. His work has included reporting on clean energy, failures in the electric grid and the economics of utility services.)

Oct. 5, 2026

Producers of solar panels in the United States say they are on the cusp of a technological breakthrough that could upend the industry and even threaten China’s grip on it.

The manufacturers are racing to develop new kinds of panels that can generate 25 percent more energy than most such devices available today. If they are successful, the advance will allow the world to meet the rapidly rising demand for electricity with less land and roof area.

The new technology, known as tandem solar, involves adding second and third layers of material, like a layer cake, to allow panels to convert more of the sun’s radiance into electricity.

Researchers have been working to perfect tandem panels for many years, but now several companies, including Tandem PV, First Solar and Hanwha Qcells, say they are preparing to sell such panels commercially soon, after successfully testing the devices and obtaining certifications from technical bodies.

“It is the next frontier,” said Mike Carr, executive director of the Solar Energy Manufacturers for America Coalition. He acknowledged that Chinese companies were also working on tandem solar but said their technology “is not better than ours and maybe even behind us.”

But the new tandem panels and their manufacturers will face many challenges. Power producers will be reluctant to buy new devices that are too expensive or until manufacturers can convince them that tandem panels will not degrade more quickly than conventional panels.

U.S. politics could be another barrier. Republicans in Congress and the Trump administration have made it hard for new solar farms to obtain federal permits while trying to increase the use of fossil fuels and nuclear power plants.

Then there is China, which controls about 80 percent of the solar panel market by supplying either panels or their components.

China devastated the U.S. solar panel manufacturing industry by offering devices at prices far lower than companies in the United States, Germany and Japan — which dominated the industry until around 2010.

The Biden and Trump administrations have tried to revive U.S. solar manufacturing with tariffs, subsidies and other policies. Partly as a result, new factories have been built across the country in recent years. Hanwha, a South Korean company that bought the German solar manufacturer Qcells in 2012, has spent billions on production lines in Georgia, including in Cartersville, north of Atlanta.

Energy experts say perfecting tandem panels before the Chinese do would allow the United States, Germany and other countries to reclaim a big share of the global solar industry.

Qcells has been testing its tandem solar panels in its lab in Germany as well as in fields in the United States, Australia, Cyprus and South Korea to show that they are ready. Among other things, the company has been blasting panels with LED light to see how they will perform. It has also been firing balls of ice — some roughly the size of marbles, others as big as or slightly bigger than golf balls — at panels to see how they handle extreme weather.

The tests are designed to reassure energy companies, investors and lenders that the new panels will last 20 to 30 years once they are installed in baking deserts or in fields subject to torrential downpours.

The power industry is “quite conservative in accepting new technologies,” said Fabian Fertig, head of tandem research and development for Qcells, who is based in Leipzig, Germany. “We’ve been focused on stability. We have to convince banks that this new technology can deliver.”

Scientists developed early tandem panels decades ago, but it has taken time to ensure that they could withstand harsh conditions — from heat and humidity to pounding hail.

“There are all these questions around how long they actually last,” said Chetan Krishna, a principal at RMI, a research organization that specializes in sustainability and was previously known as the Rocky Mountain Institute. “Are there degradation issues that we don’t know yet?”

Mr. Krishna and other experts say they believe the tandem solar panels are very close to being ready.

But the technology remains expensive. By some estimates, these panels could cost three to three and a half times as much as conventional devices, which are typically made of one layer of silicon.

The cost of buying and installing conventional panels for solar farms ranges from about 93 cents to $1.06 per watt, according to a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Andrés Gluski, chief executive of AES, a big utility and power company, said price would be crucial to the success of tandem panels because Chinese manufacturers sold solar panels at very low prices. China “could probably supply the world twice over,” he said.

(to be continued)

Translation

新型太陽能板是美國追趕中國的最佳希望（1/2）

美國太陽能板生產商表示，他們即將迎來一項技術突破，這項突破可能會顛覆整個產業，甚至威脅中國在該領域的主導地位。

製造商正在競相開發新型太陽能板，其發電量比目前市面上大多數同類產品高出25%。如果成功，這項技術將使世界能夠以更少的土地和屋頂面積滿足快速增長的電力需求。

這項被稱為疊層太陽能的新技術，是在太陽能板上增加第二層和第三層材料，就像製作千層蛋糕一樣，從而使電池板能夠將更多的太陽輻射轉化為電能。

多年來，研究人員一直在努力完善串聯式太陽能板，如今，包括 Tandem PV、First Solar 和Hanwha Qcells 在內的多家公司表示，在成功完成設備測試並獲得技術機構認證後，他們正準備很快將此類電池板推向市場。

美國太陽能製造商聯盟執行董事 Mike Carr 表示:「這是下一個前沿領域」。他承認中國公司也在研發串聯式太陽能技術，但表示他們的技術「並不比我們的好，甚至可能落後於我們」。

然而，新型串聯式電池板及其製造商將面臨許多挑戰。電力生產商不願購買價格過高的新設備，或者除非製造商能夠讓他們相信串聯式電池板的性能衰減速度不會比傳統電池板更快。

美國政治也可能成為另一道障礙。國會共和黨人和特朗普政府在試圖增加化石燃料和核電廠使用的同時，使去建新太陽能發電廠難以獲得聯邦許可。

現在中國透過供應太陽能板或其組件，控制著約80%的太陽能板市場。

中國以遠低於美國、德國和日本（這三個國家在2010年左右之前一直主導著該行業）的價格，重創了美國的太陽能板製造業。

拜登和特朗普政府都曾試圖透過關稅、補貼和其他政策來重振美國的太陽能製造業。近年來美國各地新建了許多工廠部分是因為這些政策。韓國韓華(Hanwha) 集團於2012年收購了德國太陽能製造商Qcells，並在喬治亞州（包括亞特蘭大北部的Cartersville）的生產線上投入了數十億美元。

能源專家表示，如果美國、德國和其他國家能夠先於中國改良串聯太陽能板，它們將有機會重新奪回全球太陽能產業的很大份額。

Qcells一直在其位於德國的實驗室，以及美國、澳洲、塞浦路斯和韓國實地測試其串聯太陽能板，以證明其產品已經準備就緒。該公司一直在進行多項測試，其中包括用LED燈照射太陽能板，以測試其性能。此外，他們還向電池板發射冰球 - 有些冰球大小與彈珠相仿，有些則與高爾夫球相當或略大 - 以測試其在極端天氣條件下的耐久性。

這些測試旨在讓能源公司、投資者和貸款機構確信，這些新型太陽能板一旦安裝在酷熱的沙漠或暴雨頻繁的地區，就能使用20到30年。

位於德國萊比錫的Qcells公司串聯式太陽能板研發負責人Fabian Fertig表示，電力產業“在接受新技術方面相當保守”。 “我們一直專注於穩定性。我們必須讓銀行相信這項新技術能夠真正發揮作用。”

科學家早在幾十年前就開發出了早期的串聯式太陽能板，但要確保它們能夠承受從高溫高濕到冰雹等惡劣環境，則需要時間。

RMI（一家專注於可持續發展的研究機構，前身為Rocky Mountain Institute）負責人Chetan Krishna 說: “關於它們的實際使用壽命，還有很多疑問” ， “是否存在一些我們尚未了解的太陽能板衰減方面問題” 。

Krishna和其他專家表示，他們認為串聯太陽能板快準備好了。

但這項技術仍然成本高昂。據估計，這些電池板的成本可能是傳統電池板的三到三倍半，而傳統電池板通常由一層矽製成。

根據太陽能產業協會的報告，購買和安裝用於太陽能發電廠的傳統電池板的成本約為每瓦 0.93 美元至 1.06 美元。

大型公用事業和電力公司 AES 的執行長 Andrés Gluski 表示，價格對於串聯板的成功至關重要，因為中國製造商以非常低的價格出售太陽能板。他說，中國「或許能夠供應全世界兩倍的太陽能板」。

（待續）