2026年3月27日 星期五

US February Employment Statistics: Employment Declines by 92,000 from Previous Month - A Significant Drop

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:


2月雇用統計 就業者は前月比92000人減 大幅な減少に

202636日午後1049

(202637日午前110分更新)

雇用統計

円相場や株価に影響を及ぼすアメリカの雇用統計が発表され、2月の農業分野以外の就業者は前の月から92000人の大幅な減少となりました。増加を見込んでいた市場予想を大きく下回り、金融市場では雇用情勢の減速への警戒感が再び強まることも予想されます。

アメリカ労働省が6日に発表した2月の雇用統計によりますと、景気の動向を敏感に示す農業分野以外の就業者は、前の月から92000人の大幅な減少となりました。

市場の予想では55000人程度の増加が見込まれていましたが、これを大きく下回り、アメリカメディアも予想外の減少と相次いで報じています。

また、失業率は前の月から0.1ポイント悪化し、4.4%でした。

専門家の間ではアメリカを襲った寒波や医療大手のストライキなどが影響した可能性があるとの指摘も出ていますが、雇用情勢が減速傾向にある可能性を示唆する内容となっていて、金融市場では、警戒感が再び強まりそうです。

今回の統計の内容などを踏まえてFRB=連邦準備制度理事会は景気を下支えするための利下げのペースを判断していくことになりますが、アメリカなどとイランとの間の攻撃の応酬を受けて原油価格が大きく上昇していて、インフレが再加速することへの懸念も広がるなか、難しいかじ取りを迫られることになりそうです。

Translation

US February Employment Statistics: Employment Declines by 92,000 from Previous Month - A Significant Drop

Employment Statistics

The US employment statistics, which influenced the yen exchange rate and stock prices, had been released, showing a significant decrease of 92,000 non-agricultural workers in February compared to the previous month. This fell far short of market expectations, which had anticipated an increase, and was expected to rekindle concerns about a slowdown in the employment situation in financial markets.

According to the February employment statistics released by the US Department of Labor on the 6th, non-agricultural workers, a sensitive indicator of economic trends, fell sharply by 92,000 from the previous month.

Market expectations had projected an increase of around 55,000, but this figure fell significantly short, and US media were also reporting one after another that the decrease was unexpected.

Furthermore, the unemployment rate worsened by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month to 4.4%.

While some experts suggested that the cold wave that hit the US and strikes at major healthcare companies might have had an impact, the report suggested that the employment situation might be slowing down, which was likely to heighten concerns in financial markets once again.

Based on the contents of this data, the Federal Reserve would decide on the pace of interest rate cuts to support the economy, but with oil prices rising sharply due to the exchange of attacks between the US and Iran, and concerns about renewed inflation accelerating, the Federal Reserve would likely face a difficult decision.

              So, US employment statistics is showing a significant decrease of 92,000 non-agricultural workers in February compared to the previous month. This number falls far short of market expectations and may generate concerns about a slowdown in the employment situation.

2026年3月25日 星期三

中國家長將家庭作業外判給人工智能 (2/2)

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

China’s Parents Are Outsourcing the Homework Grind to A.I. (2/2)

Parents in China are turning to A.I. chatbots and other tools to help their children gain an edge and ease the fighting over homework.

The NYT - By Vivian Wang and Jiawei Wang - Vivian Wang reported from Beijing. Jiawei Wang reported from Seoul.

March 2, 2026

(continue)

Creating Learning Games

Yin Xingyu, 37, uses A.I. chatbots like DeepSeek in her job as a marketer in Shenzhen. She started to wonder whether the tool could also help her 6-year-old daughter.

Ms. Yin didn’t know how to code, so she turned to what’s known as “vibecoding” instead: using A.I. models to build software by describing what you want in plain language. She worked with DeepSeek to build an interactive English word game for her daughter. The chatbot wrote the code for her.

She is now sharing the prompts on social media so other parents can input them into their own chatbots and replicate her games.

Ms. Yin has also experimented with other models. She used Google’s A.I. image generator, Nano Banana Pro, to create comic strips that used her daughter’s Chinese vocabulary words, starring her favorite characters from movies like “Zootopia” and “Frozen.”

Ms. Yin said she didn’t think that her daughter would become dependent on A.I., because she designed the games to prioritize active thinking over passive stimulation. She plans to encourage her daughter to use the tools even more as she gets older; for example, by using chatbots to brainstorm ideas for essays.

“Most likely that’s how the future will be, and I want her to get used to it from a young age,” she said.

‘A.I. Self-Study Rooms’

Not every effort to use A.I. for education has been successful. Some companies have rolled out products that critics say are more hype than substance.

So-called “A.I. self-study rooms,” for example, are advertised as physical spaces where students can learn from A.I.-powered tablets that tailor learning plans to individual needs. Fees range from a few dollars an hour to hundreds of dollars a month.

A state media report from 2024 about the trend showed a classroom in Zhejiang Province lined with cubicles, where students sat quietly in front of tablets that assessed their completion of assignments for accuracy and speed.

But some parents and former employees have complained that the “A.I.” is merely a marketing facade for prerecorded lessons or other less advanced technology, and that the tablets are just basic, off-the-shelf devices.

State media outlets have also accused the operators of some of the centers of trying to circumvent a 2021 ban on for-profit tutoring that was meant to shield children from having too much homework and families from spending too heavily. Many tutoring services have continued to operate underground. (The study centers have said that A.I. is doing the teaching, not tutors, so the ban does not apply.)

Many of the study rooms have already shut down, according to media reports. The New York Times twice tried to visit one in Beijing, only to find it locked and empty, with posters purporting to show reviews from satisfied parents still on the walls.

May Zeng, 24, worked at a study room in Jiangxi Province for two months last year, where she was in charge of making sure that students didn’t slack off. She thought that parents didn’t care as much about A.I. as they did about having somewhere to put their children.

Still, A.I. was getting used — by Ms. Zeng herself. As part of her duties, she had to write feedback on each student’s progress.

“When I found I really had nothing to say, I’d just throw it to the A.I.,” she said. “In this A.I. self-study room, I was the one using the most A.I.”

Translation

中國家長將家庭作業外判給人工智能 (2/2)

中國的家長們正在轉向人工智能聊天機械人和其他工具,以幫助孩子在學習上取得優勢,並減少因家庭作業而起的爭吵

(繼續)

創建學習遊戲

37歲的Yin Xingyu在深圳擔任行銷人員,她在工作中經常使用像DeepSeek這樣的人工智能聊天機械人。她開始思考,這個工具是否也能幫助她6歲的女兒。

Yin女士不懂程式設計,所以她轉而使用所謂的「感知編碼」:透過用簡單的語言描述需求,利用人工智能模型來建立軟件。她用DeepSeek配合,為女兒開發了一款互動式英語單字遊戲。聊天機械人為她編寫出程式碼。

她現在在社交媒體上分享與電腦溝通的提示,以便其他家長可以用它們輸入到自己的聊天機器械中,從而複製她的遊戲。

Yin女士也嘗試了其他模型。她使用Google的人工智能影像產生器 Nano Banana Pro,創作了一些簡短漫畫,漫畫中使用了她女兒正在學習的中文詞彙,扮演是她最喜歡電影裡的角色,例如《瘋狂動物城》(Zootopia) 和《冰雪奇緣》(Frozen)

Yin女士表示,她不認為女兒將會變得依賴人工智能,因為她設計的這些遊戲旨在培養孩子的主動思考能力,而不是被動而非被動的刺激。她計劃鼓勵女兒在長大後更多地使用這些工具;例如,使用聊天機械人來集思廣益,為作文尋找靈感。

她說:「未來很可能就是這樣,我希望她從小就習慣它」。

“人工智能自學室”

並非所有將人工智能應用於教育的嘗試都取得了成功。一些公司推出的產品被批評者認為華而不實。

例如,所謂的「人工智能自學室」被宣傳為實體空間,學生可以在這裡使用人工智能平板電腦學習,這些平板電腦會根據個人需求量身定制學習計劃。費用從每小時幾美元到每月幾百美元不等。

2024年的一篇官方媒體報導了這一趨勢,報導中展示了浙江省的一間教室,教室裡排列著一排排隔間,學生們安靜地坐在平板電腦前,平板電腦會評估他們完成作業的準確性和速度。

但一些家長和前員工抱怨說,「人工智能」只不過是預先錄製的課程或其他不太先進技術的行銷噱頭,而這些平板電腦只是基本的現成設備。

官方媒體也指責一些自學中心的經營者試圖規避2021年禁止營利性課外輔導的禁令,該禁令旨在避免孩子作業過多,也避免家庭支出過高。許多輔導機構仍在暗中運作。 (這些輔導中心聲稱,授課的是人工智能,而非輔導老師,因此禁令對他們無效。)

據媒體報道,許多輔導室已經關閉。 《紐約時報》曾兩度試圖造訪北京的一家輔導室,卻發現它大門緊閉,空無一人,牆上還貼著一些據稱是家長好評的海報。

24歲的May Zeng去年在江西省的一家輔導室工作了兩個月,負責督促學生認真學習。她認為,家長更關心的是,是否有地方可以安置孩子,而不是人工智能。

然而,人工智能確實被Zeng本人使用了 。她作為工作的一部分,需要為每個學生的學習進度撰寫出回應。

她說:「當我發現自己沒什麼好說的時候,我就把它交給人工智能寫」; 「在這個人工智能自學室裡,我是使用人工智能最多的人」。

So, parents in China are turning to A.I. to gain a competitive edge. Some are making interactive learning games or using chatbots to grade their children’s homework, while others are using it to get past a language barrier. Their eagerness to embrace A.I. for learning is a sharp contrast to many in the United States who worry that it may feed students misinformation or erode critical thinking. Apparently, there is a huge different between these two countries due to cultural difference etc.

Note:

1. In the computer world, a “prompt” (提示) is essentially an instruction or input given to a computer system by a user to get a response or action from the computer. The exact meaning depends on context, but here are the main uses: 1. Command Line Prompt (classic meaning) - A prompt is the symbol or text that shows a computer is ready for input. Example: C:\Users\>; 2. Prompt as a Request for Input - Programs often “prompt” users to enter information. Example: “Enter your password:”; “Are you sure you want to continue? (Y/N)”; 3. AI Prompt (modern meaning) - With tools like ChatGPT, a prompt is the text you give an AI to guide its response. Example prompts: “Write a story about space travel”; “Explain quantum physics simply”; “Summarize this article”. (ChatGPT)

2026年3月24日 星期二

Iran Fired Ballistic Missiles at Joint US-UK Base in Indian Ocean, a US Bomber Launch Base: Target Missed

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

イラン、インド洋の米英共同基地へ弾道ミサイル発射も命中せず 米爆撃機の出撃拠点

2026.03.21 Sat posted at 16:40 JST

  CNN イランが20日午前、インド洋のディエゴガルシア島にある米英の共同軍事基地に向けて中距離弾道ミサイルを発射したことが分かった。米当局者が明らかにした。

当局者によると、イラン沿岸から約3810キロ離れた基地に向けてミサイル2発が発射されたが、いずれも命中しなかったという。

ディエゴガルシア島は米国の重爆撃機にとって重要な航空拠点で、長年にわたり、米本土から遠く離れた地域への作戦に不可欠な米軍の海外出撃拠点の役割を果たしてきた。

CNNはホワイトハウスや米国防総省、英国防省、ディエゴガルシアの基地を管轄地域に収める米インド太平洋軍にコメントを求めている。

ディエゴガルシア島はモーリシャスから北東1609キロあまりに位置する群島、チャゴス諸島の一部。英国は1814年、フランスの皇帝ナポレオンを撃退後、モーリシャスと合わせてチャゴス諸島を取得した。

モーリシャスは1968年に独立したが、チャゴス諸島は今も英国の支配下にある。

米国と英国は71年、この地域におけるソ連の軍事的影響力を抑える目的で、ディエゴガルシア島に大規模な基地を建設した。

ディエゴガルシア島はイラク侵攻に寄与したほか、アジア各地への任務に飛ぶ爆撃機の重要な着陸拠点として機能してきた。米国による身柄引き渡しとの関連も指摘される。

トランプ米大統領は今年、チャゴス諸島の主権をモーリシャスに引き渡す計画を巡り、英国を「愚かだ」と批判した。

英国は条約の条件に基づき、チャゴス諸島の主権をモーリシャスに移譲する方針。ディエゴガルシアにある基地については、英国が毎年13600万ドル(約216億円)をモーリシャスに支払って99年間租借する予定で、米英は引き続き施設を使用できる。

Translation

Iran Fired Ballistic Missiles at Joint US-UK Base in Indian Ocean, a US Bomber Launch Base: Target Missed

March 21, 2026 (Sat) Posted at 4:40 PM JST

(CNN) A US official confirmed that Iran had fired medium-range ballistic missiles at a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean on the morning of March 20.

According to the official, two missiles were fired at the base, located approximately 3,810 kilometers off the Iranian coast, but neither hit its target.

Diego Garcia Island is a crucial air base for US heavy bombers and has long served as an essential overseas launch base for US military operations far from the US mainland.

CNN had reached out for comment to the White House, the US Department of Defense, the UK Ministry of Defense, and also the US Indo-Pacific Command which oversaw the Diego Garcia base.

Diego Garcia was part of the Chagos Islands, an archipelago located approximately 1,609 kilometers northeast of Mauritius. Britain acquired the Chagos Islands, along with Mauritius, in 1814 after repelling Napoleon the French emperor.

Mauritius gained independence in 1968, but the Chagos Islands remained under British control.

In 1971, the United States and Britain constructed a large base on Diego Garcia with the aim of countering Soviet military influence in the region.

Diego Garcia played a role in the invasion of Iraq and had served as an important landing base for bombers flying to various parts of Asia. Its connection to the US extradition had also been suggested.

This year, US President Trump criticized Britain as "stupid" over its plan to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

Britain intended to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius based on the terms of the treaty. The base in Diego Garcia was to be leased by the UK for 99 years, with the UK paying Mauritius $136 million (approximately 21.6 billion yen) annually, allowing the US and UK to continue using the facilities.

So, Iran has fired two medium-range ballistic missiles at a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean located approximately 3,810 kilometers from the Iranian coast, but neither hit its target. Apparently, up to this moment, Iran is unable to fire the missiles accurately over such a long distance, and for sure the accuracy will be improved eventually.

2026年3月22日 星期日

中國家長正將家庭作業外判給人工智能(1/2)

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

China’s Parents Are Outsourcing the Homework Grind to A.I. (1/2)

Parents in China are turning to A.I. chatbots and other tools to help their children gain an edge and ease the fighting over homework.

The NYT - By Vivian Wang and Jiawei Wang - Vivian Wang reported from Beijing. Jiawei Wang reported from Seoul.

March 2, 2026

Across China, where education is famously cutthroat, parents are turning to artificial intelligence to gain a competitive edge. Some are making interactive learning games or using chatbots to grade their children’s homework. Others are using A.I.-powered gadgets to get past a language barrier.

Their eagerness to experiment is one example of how Chinese users are embracing A.I. for learning, even as many in the United States worry that it feeds students misinformation or erodes critical thinking. This cultural rift is backed by data: A 2025 global survey led by the services firm KPMG found that more than 90 percent of Chinese said they felt optimistic about the technology, compared to just over 50 percent in the United States.

The enthusiasm in China has fueled a sprawling, often unchecked, marketplace for educational technology that is worth more than $43 billion by some estimates, and where gimmicks and exaggerated marketing are common. Yet for some families, the tools are providing genuine relief. Three parents shared videos of their routines, showing how A.I., while imperfect, has made parenting and teaching their children a little easier.

As a mother of two with a full-time public relations job, Zheng Wenqi, 42, had little time to practice English herself, let alone teach her children. She knew her 9-year-old son needed more conversational experience but didn’t know where to turn.

“There just wasn’t an opportunity for him to start talking,” said Ms. Zheng, who lives in northern China’s Heilongjiang Province.

Then she saw a livestream promoting a gadget she could wear to make her conversant in English.

It has two parts: a mask that covers her mouth, and a speaker that hangs around her neck. Ms. Zheng speaks Chinese into the mask, which also muffles her voice. Then, a translation comes out of the speaker. She began wearing it around the house, for 30 to 60 minutes a day.

The roughly $375 device, called Native Language Star, draws on speech and language models developed by several Chinese technology firms, according to the company, based in Shenzhen, that makes the device.

Ms. Zheng said the translations were sometimes stiff. But she said that after about a month, her son was speaking more confidently and initiating conversations.

Ms. Zheng also uses the device with her 5-year-old daughter, who had never learned English before. The child can now describe daily tasks, like getting dressed and putting her shoes on.

“We say, ‘Now is English time, let’s all speak in English,’ and I’ll put that thing on,” Ms. Zheng said. “And then they just say whatever they know.”

A Chatbot With ‘Eyes’

Li Linyun, a stay-at-home mother, used to fight with her 10-year-old daughter, Weixiao, over her studies.

Now Ms. Li has delegated supervision of Weixiao’s schoolwork to an A.I. chatbot.

“It’s a 24-hour online teacher, and it’s knowledgeable and extremely patient,” said Ms. Li, who lives in Hunan Province, in central China.

Ms. Li uses Doubao, China’s most popular A.I. chatbot, which was created by ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok. It has a camera function, which parents refer to as Doubao’s “eyes.” People can use it to learn more about their surroundings, for instance by asking Doubao to identify plants or give more details about museum artifacts. (ChatGPT has a similar function for paying users; Doubao’s is free.)

After more experimentation, Ms. Li learned that Doubao could explain grammar rules better than she ever could.

Weixiao said she liked that she could ask Doubao to repeat explanations as many times as she needed, while her teachers moved on quickly. “It explains in more detail, so I can understand,” she said.

Ms. Li also began asking Doubao to grade completed homework assignments by uploading a photo to the app.

The chatbot identifies wrong answers and corrects them, Ms. Li said, though it sometimes makes mistakes.

The camera can also monitor Weixiao’s posture. But Ms. Li said she rarely used that feature, because her daughter didn’t like the feeling of being watched.

Ms. Li said she wasn’t worried about feeding so much footage of Weixiao to the chatbot. In the social media age, “we don’t have a lot of privacy anyway,” she said.

And the benefits were more than worthwhile. She no longer had to spend hundreds of dollars a month on English tutoring, and Weixiao’s grades had improved. “It makes educational resources more equitable for ordinary people,” Ms. Li said.

Her relationship with Weixiao had improved, too, she said. “To ease tensions in a parent-child relationship, you can’t spend too much time on homework,” she said. “Just encouraging her is enough.”

(to be continued)

Translation

中國家長正將家庭作業外判給人工智能(1/2

中國的家長們正轉向人工智能聊天機器人和其他工具,幫助孩子在學習上取得優勢,並減少因家庭作業而起的爭執

在中國,教育競爭異常激烈,家長正轉向人工智能以獲得競爭優勢。有些家長會製作互動式學習遊戲,或使用聊天機器人批改孩子的作業。另一些家長則使用人工智能設備來克服語言障礙。

他們樂於嘗試,這正是中國用戶接受人工智能用於學習的一個例子,雖然許多美國人擔心人工智能會向學生灌輸錯誤訊息或削弱批判性思考。這種文化差異有數據佐證:畢馬威會計師事務所(KPMG)主導的一項2025年全球調查發現,超過90%的中國人對這項技術持樂觀態度,而美國祇有略高於50%的人持相同看法。

中國的熱情催生了一個龐大且往往缺乏監管的教育科技市場,據估計,該市場價值超過430億美元,各種噱頭和誇張的行銷手段層出不窮。然而,對一些家庭來說,這些工具確實帶來了實質的幫助。三位家長分享了他們的日常視頻,展示了人工智能雖然並不完美,但確實讓他們的育兒和教育工作變得輕鬆了一些。

42歲的Zheng Wenqi是一位有兩個孩子的母親,同時也從事全職的公關工作。她幾乎沒有時間自己練習英語,更別提教孩子練習了。她知道自己9歲的兒子需要更多的口語練習,但不知該向誰練習說英語。

住在中國北方的黑龍江省的Zheng女士說道:「他根本沒有機會開口說英語」。

後來,她看到一個直播,推廣一款可以穿戴的電子設備,幫助她學習英語。

這款裝置由兩個部分組成:一個遮住嘴部的面罩和一個掛在脖子上的揚聲器。Zheng女士對著面罩說中文,面罩也會降低她的聲音。然後,揚聲器會播放翻譯。她開始每天在家裡戴它3060分鐘。

根據生產這款設備的公司介紹,這款名為「母語之星」(Native Language Star)的設備售價約為375美元,其語音和語言模型由多家中國科技公司共同開發,生產公司位於深圳。

Zheng女士說,翻譯有時略顯生硬。但她說,大約一個月後,她的兒子開始自信地用英語交流,並主動發起對話。

Zheng女士還用這款設備教她5歲的女兒,女兒之前從未學過英語。這女孩現在可以描述一些日常活動,例如穿衣服和穿鞋。

Zheng女士說: 「我們會說,『現在是英語時間,大家一起說英語吧!』然後我會戴上那個東西」; 「之後他們就會說他們知道的英語了」。

 

擁有「眼睛」的聊天機械人

全職媽媽Li Linyun以前常常因為10歲的女兒Weixiao的學習而和她吵架。

現在,Li女士把Weixiao的作業的輔導委託給了人工智能聊天機械人。

居住在中國中部湖南省的Li女士說:「它就像一位24小時線上老師,知識淵博,而且非常有耐心」。

Li女士使用的是豆寶 (Doubao),這是中國最受歡迎的人工智能聊天機械人,由TikTok的母公司位元組跳動 (ByteDance)開發。它有一個攝影機功能,家長稱之為豆寶的「眼睛」。人們可以利用它來了解更多周圍環境的信息,例如讓豆寶識別植物或提供更多關於博物館藏品的細節。 ChatGPT 為付費用戶提供類似功能;豆寶的功能是免費的。)

經過更多嘗試,Li女士發現豆寶講解語法規則比她自己講得更好。

Weixiao說她很喜歡可以不停地重複讓豆寶講解,而老師們講得很快。 她說:“它講得更詳細,所以我能理解”。

Li女士也開始讓豆寶批改完成的作業,只需將照片上傳到應用程式即可。

Li女士說,聊天機械人可以識別錯誤答案並進行糾正,儘管它有時也會出錯。

攝影機還可以監控Weixiao的舉動。但Li女士說她很少使用這個功能,因為她女兒不喜歡被監視的感覺。

Li女士說,她並不擔心把Weixiao的那麼多影像資料給聊天機械人。她說,在社群媒體時代,「我們本來就沒太多隱私可言」。

同時,這樣做的好處顯而易見。她不用再每月花幾百美元請英文家教了,Weixiao的成績也提高了。Li女士說: 「這讓一般人更容易獲得教育資源」。

她還說,她和Weixiao的關係也改善了。 她又說:“要緩解親子關係緊張,不能在作業上花太多時間”,“鼓勵她就足夠了。”

(待續)

2026年3月21日 星期六

印度如何成為世界最大經濟體之一(2/2)

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

How India Became One of the World’s Biggest Economies (2/2)

India has grown rapidly despite its slow industrialization, and its economy is now nearly as big as Japan’s.

NYT - By Alex Travelli and Aaron Krolik. Alex Travelli reported from New Delhi, and Aaron Krolik from Seoul.

Feb. 27, 2026

(continue)

India is still poor. The average Japanese income is 12 times the Indian average. The average German’s is 21 times as great. Indians on average have incomes of only about $2,900 a year, and the country’s top-heavy economy means most of its citizens make far less.

The contrasts can be shocking. In India, billions of dollars are being invested to build data centers, and airports are sprouting everywhere, even as about 800 million people depend on the government for free sacks of grain.

India’s inequality leaves most of a billion people in a state of subsistence, and it hobbles the country as a whole. Social divisions deepen, it becomes harder to fund public health and education — and it gets much tougher for consumer-facing companies to turn a profit.

But for businesses like Bajaj Finserv, Mr. Bajaj estimated, the better-off 400 million Indians are a great opportunity in their own right. No other country except China has so large a group of consumers, he said.

Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister since 2014, said he intended to transform India into a fully developed country by 2047, the 100th anniversary of its independence. That won’t happen unless the country’s growth speeds up to the kind of pace China achieved earlier this century.

Since the Industrial Revolution, no other place has shot up the top-tier rankings except through the power of its factories. China, factory to the world, devotes 25 percent of its economy to manufacturing. When Mr. Modi announced a Make in India campaign in 2015, manufacturing accounted for 16 percent of the economy. Since then, it has fallen to 13 percent.

That is barely more than in the United States, which is called a postindustrial economy. As is the case in America, India’s economy is driven by its services, led by high-value work like chip design, computer engineering and office work for multinational companies, and powered by transportation and trade in goods.

The evolution of the Bajaj family business illustrates the point.

Bajaj Auto was much bigger than Bajaj Finserv when the companies split ways, but now the banking company is 50 percent larger. Finance, not factories, has been the hotter sector in India, as it is in the United States.

But Bajaj Auto has also grown, in keeping with the industrial part of India’s economy. It produces 4.5 million motorcycles and auto rickshaws a year, nearly half for export to countries like Indonesia, Egypt and Mexico.

The mixed quality of India’s economy has helped it weather storms like the financial crisis of 2008, but it also made the country vulnerable during trade negotiations with President Trump. Focused mainly on serving its own immense population, India found itself without any bargaining chips in global supply chains.

The three cities in the world with the most skyscrapers under construction in 2025 were all in India. The tallest of those buildings, however, the 56-story Palais Royale in Mumbai, is stalled, under construction since 2008. India is in a mode of making tall promises, and delivering on them sporadically.

“Directionally, India is in a very exciting place. It’s screwed up, sure, but we’re in a very interesting position for the next 10 to 15 years,” Mr. Bajaj said. Its young people, perhaps especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, he continued, are “bright, and hungry,” and before long they will become part of the world’s third-largest economy.

Translation

印度如何成為世界最大經濟體之一(2/2

儘管工業化進程緩慢,印度仍實現了快速成長,其經濟規模如今已接近日本。

(繼續)

印度仍然很貧窮。日本人均收入是印度人的12倍,德國人均所得是印度人的21倍。印度人均年收入僅約2,900美元,而該國經濟活動結構高度過度集中於上層,導致大多數公民的收入遠低於此。

這種對比令人震驚。在印度,數十億美元正被投資用於建造數據庫,機場也如雨後春筍般湧現,同時,約有8億人依賴政府免費發放糧食。

印度的貧富差距導致十億人口中的大多數生活在勉強糊口的境地,也拖累了整個國家的發展。社會分化加劇,公共衛生和教育經費越來越難籌措,面向消費者的企業獲利也變得更加艱難。

Bajaj先生估計,對於像Bajaj Finserv金融服務公司這樣的企業來說,四億富裕的印度人本身就是一個巨大的商機。他說,除了中國,沒有一個國家擁有如此龐大的消費族群。

2014年以來一直擔任印度總理的莫迪表示,他計劃在2047 - 印度獨立一百週年之際 - 將印度轉型為一個完全發達國家。除非印度的經濟成長速度能夠達到中國在本世紀初所取得的水平,否則這一目標將無法實現。

自工業革命以來,除了依靠強大的工廠力量之外,沒有一個國家能躋身世界一流經濟體之列。中國,這個“世界工廠”,其經濟的25%都用於製造業。 2015年莫迪先生宣布「印度製造」運動時,製造業佔印度經濟的16%。此後,這一比例下降至13%

這僅略高於被稱為後工業經濟體的美國。與美國一樣,印度的經濟也以服務業為驅動,其中以晶片設計、電腦工程和跨國公司辦公服務等高附加價值工作為主導,並以貨物運輸和貿易為支撐。

Bajaj家族企業的演變就說明了這一點。

Bajaj汽車公司在分拆時規模遠大於Bajaj金融服務公司,但如今這公司的銀行的規模卻比汽車公司大了50%。正如在美國一樣,金融業而非製造業才是印度的熱門產業。

Bajaj汽車公司也隨著印度經濟的工業化而發展壯大。該公司每年生產450萬輛摩托車和自動三輪車,其中近一半出口到印尼、埃及和墨西哥等國家。

印度經濟的複雜結構幫助其抵禦了2008年金融危機等風暴,但也使其在與特朗普總統的貿易談判中處於弱勢地位。由於主要關注服務其龐大的人口,印度在全球供應鏈中缺乏談判籌碼。

2025年,全球在建摩天大樓最多的三個城市都位於印度。然而,其中最高的建築 - 位於孟買的56層樓高的皇家宮殿大廈(Palais Royale - 2008年以來一直處於停工狀態。印度似乎總是做出高遠的承諾,但兌現卻時斷時續。

Bajaj先生說: 「從發展方向來看,印度正處於一個非常令人興奮的階段。當然,它現在也存在一些問題,但在未來1015年,我們處於一個非常有趣的境地」。他繼續說道,印度的年輕人,尤其是那些來自弱勢背景的年輕人, “聰明且渴望成功” ,他們很快就會成為世界第三大經濟體的一部分。

              So, India, the world’s fastest-growing large economy is showing an expansion at a rate of 7.5 percent last year. In early 2026 India has become the world’s fourth-largest economy, overtaking Japan. India is still poor as about 800 million people are depend on the government for free sacks of grain. The average Japanese income is 12 times the Indian average. The average German’s is 21 times as great. Indians on average have incomes of only about $2,900 a year, and the country’s top-heavy economy means most of its citizens make far less. I am interested in seeing how India will continue to expand its economy in the coming decade.

Note:

1.  A Top-heavy economy (上層經濟活動集中) is an economic structure characterized by significant concentration of wealth and resources, typically within a few sectors or among a small percentage of the population, resulting in imbalances and potential economic weaknesses. (ChatGPT)

2026年3月20日 星期五

Iran in Talks with 8 Countries Regarding Giving Safe Passage of Yuan-Denominated Oil Going Through the Strait of Hormuz, Sources Said

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

人民元で取引される石油の安全なホルムズ海峡通過、イランが8カ国と協議 情報筋

2026.03.18 Wed posted at 11:00 JST

CNN イラン政府は中東以外の8カ国との間で、中国人民元で取引される石油の安全なホルムズ海峡通過を認めるイランの提案について協議していることが分かった。イランの治安情報筋がCNNに明らかにした。

これらの国は、イランが人民元で石油を取引する国の船舶に海峡通過を認める案を検討しているとの報道を受け、合意の可能性を探るためイラン政府に接触した。

情報筋は8カ国の国名を明らかにしなかった。イランは現在の封鎖措置を維持することに加え、海峡を通る船の交通を管理することを含むより広範な対応も検討しているという。

イランは先日、米国やイスラエル、その同盟国の船舶を攻撃目標にすると表明。世界の石油の約5分の1が通過する航路を事実上封鎖する形となり、エネルギー価格の急騰を招いている。ホルムズ海峡への機雷の敷設も開始しており、海峡再開に向けた今後の取り組みは複雑化しそうだ。

Translation

Iran in Talks with 8 Countries Regarding Giving Safe Passage of Yuan-Denominated Oil Going Through the Strait of Hormuz, Sources Said

March 18, 2026, Wed, posted at 11:00 JST

(CNN) The Iranian government was reportedly in discussions with eight countries outside the Middle East regarding Iran's proposal to allow safe passage of oil traded in Chinese yuan to go through the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian security source told CNN.

These countries contacted the Iranian government to explore the possibility of an agreement following reports that Iran was considering a plan to allow ships from countries trading oil in yuan to pass through the strait.

The source did not name the eight countries. Iran was reportedly considering broader measures, including controlling shipping traffic through the strait, in addition to maintaining its current blockade.

Iran recently declared it would target US, Israeli, and their allied ships. This effectively blocked a shipping lane through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil passes, leading to a surge in energy prices. With the laying of mines in the Strait of Hormuz also beginning, future efforts toward reopening the strait were likely to become more complicated.

So, Iran is reportedly in discussions with some countries outside the Middle East to allow safe passage of oil traded in Chinese yuan to go through the Strait of Hormuz. I am interested to know what are these countries.

2026年3月19日 星期四

印度如何成為世界最大經濟體之一(1/2)

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

How India Became One of the World’s Biggest Economies (1/2)

India has grown rapidly despite its slow industrialization, and its economy is now nearly as big as Japan’s.

NYT - By Alex Travelli and Aaron Krolik. Alex Travelli reported from New Delhi, and Aaron Krolik from Seoul.

Feb. 27, 2026

India, the world’s fastest-growing large economy for four years in a row, released data on Friday showing that it expanded at a rate of 7.5 percent last year, driven in part by strength in manufacturing.

Many economists, and India’s government, had expected India to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2025, overtaking Japan in size. Instead, with the Indian rupee weak against the dollar and Japan’s yen relatively strong, India’s economy stayed a step behind when measured in dollar terms.

But in terms of growth, India far outperformed Japan, which grew only 1.1 percent in 2025. The three largest economies — the United States, China and Germany — all grew more slowly than India last year.

India became the world’s fifth-largest economy four years ago, pushing aside Britain, its former colonial ruler. The International Monetary Fund has projected that India will nudge past Japan in 2026.

The strong growth last year underscores India’s place as one of the world’s most consequential centers of economic gravity, despite breaking every rule about how countries are supposed to modernize. Its rise up the league table of economies has given it geopolitical clout and drawn interest from investors. Yet the shape of its progress is unique. With India’s economic power growing even faster than its population — now more than 1.4 billion people, larger than any other country’s — India is on a course all its own.

The country’s thousands of small businesses hire most of its workers, but an increasing share of growth has come from its biggest companies. Dynastic family firms play an outsize role at every scale, from conglomerates like Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Group to industry-specific companies.

Sanjiv Bajaj, a scion of a 100-year-old family business with roots in the automotive sector, has had a ringside view of India’s growth. Mr. Bajaj, 56, split off the Bajaj group’s financial services operation from Bajaj Auto in 2007. Bajaj Finserv started with $550 million under management and now controls $53 billion. Its own market value has grown 377 times over.

Much of the company’s success can be traced to India’s policies to modernize technology. In the past decade, the government has pushed biometric IDs and digital payments, pulling a majority of India’s adults into the banking system. India’s own digital payments system now processes 20 billion transactions a month. Most amounts are tiny, Mr. Bajaj said, but the sheer size of the country’s population means that even small shifts in behavior turn into tremendous moneymaking opportunities.

All of that data, Mr. Bajaj said, “allows us to look at every small shop owner and see his inflows and outflows every day.” His company can now make lending decisions at an enormous scale, bringing millions of Indians into the formal credit system, he said.

Among the world’s economies, the United States and China are way ahead in terms of size, ahead of Germany, Japan and India, all in a tight cluster, by about four to six times.

India has been holding tight to its position as the fastest-growing large economy since 2021. With annual growth of more than 6 or 7 percent, it doubles in size every decade, while Germany, Japan and most other rich countries struggle to hit yearly growth of 2 percent.

Germany and Japan have over decades become manufacturing powerhouses that have lifted their populations out of post-World War II poverty.

(to be continued)

印度如何成為世界最大經濟體之一(1/2

 儘管工業化進程緩慢,印度經濟仍實現了快速成長,如今其經濟規模已接近日本

 印度連續四年蟬聯全球成長最快的大型經濟體,週五公佈的數據顯示,去年印度經濟成長率達7.5%,部分原因是製造業的強勁成長。

許多經濟學家和印度政府曾預計,印度將在2025年超越日本,成為世界第四大經濟體。然而,由於印度盧比對美元疲軟,日圓相對強勢,以美元計價,印度經濟仍落後日本。

但就成長而言,印度遠超過日本,日本2025年僅成長了1.1%。三大經濟體 - 美國、中國和德國 - 去年的成長速度都低於印度。

四年前,印度超越其前殖民統治者英國,成為世界第五大經濟體。國際貨幣基金組織預測,印度將在2026年超越日本。

儘管印度打破了各國現代化進程的常規,但其去年的強勁成長凸顯了印度作為全球最具影響力的經濟中心之一的地位。印度在全球經濟排名中的崛起賦予了其地緣政治影響力,並吸引了投資者的注意。然而,印度的發展軌跡卻獨樹一格。印度的經濟實力成長速度甚至超過了其人口成長速度 - 目前印度人口已超過14億,超過其他國家 - 印度正走著一條與眾不同的道路。

印度數以千計的小企業僱用了大部分勞動力,但越來越多的成長卻來自其最大的公司。世代家族企業從Mukesh Ambani的信實集團 (Reliance Group) 到行業特定型公司,各個層級的都扮演著舉足輕重的角色。

Sanjiv Bajaj,一位擁有百年歷史的汽車行業家族企業的繼承人,親眼見證了印度的經濟成長。現年56歲的Bajaj先生於2007年將Bajaj集團的金融服務業務從Bajaj Auto公司剝離。Bajaj金融服務公司(Bajaj Finserv) 最初管理的資產為5.5億美元,如今已控制著530億美元的資產。其市值成長了377倍。

該公司的巨大成功很大程度上要歸功於印度推行的技術現代化政策。過去十年,印度政府大力推廣生物辨識身分和電子支付,使大多數印度成年人納入了銀行體系。印度的電子支付系統目前每月處理200億筆交易。Bajaj先生表示,雖然大多數交易金額都很小,但印度龐大的人口基數意味著,即使是微小的行為變化也能轉化為巨大的獲利機會。

Bajaj先生說,所有這些數據「讓我們能夠了解每一位小商戶每天的資金流入和流出」。他表示,他的公司現在可以大規模做出貸款決策,將數百萬印度人納入正規信貸體系。

在全球經濟體中,美國和中國的規模遙遙領先,遠超德國、日本和印度這三個緊密相連的一組國家,大約是它們的四到六倍。

2021年以來,印度一直保持著全球成長最快的大型經濟體的地位。其年增率超過6%7%,每十年經濟規模翻一番,而德國、日本和大多數其他富裕國家卻難以達到2%的年增長率。

德國和日本經過數十年的發展,已成為製造業強國,使兩國人民擺脫了二戰後的貧困。

(待續)