What’s Riding on Anthropic’s Market Debut? Nearly Everything. (2/2)
Anthropic sits atop a pyramid of business partners and
suppliers, making it a barometer of the broader economy. Its initial public
offering will have widespread implications.
By Erin Griffith and Lauren Hirsch - Erin Griffith reported
from San Francisco and Lauren Hirsch from New York.
Oct. 26, 2026, 5:02 a.m. ET
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This month, Anthropic gathered investors at its San
Francisco headquarters to present its financial performance and growth plans.
By most measures, its numbers were astounding. The company’s revenue hit $16.8
billion in the third quarter, up 45 percent from the prior quarter. But
investors compared that with even faster growth of 141 percent in the second
quarter.
How Anthropic explains that slowdown will be important. If
it was because the company lost market share to OpenAI or companies using
cheaper open-source A.I. models — the technology that powers chatbots and other
tools that generate videos, text and computer code — that means the overall
demand for A.I. services remains healthy. If Anthropic’s growth slowed because
the entire market saw less demand for A.I. products, the reaction could be more
dramatic.
Anthropic declined to comment.
For the past year, Anthropic has been Silicon Valley’s
hottest company, thanks partly to Claude Code, the service that transformed how
software engineers write code. The company’s revenue soared, causing private
market investors to drive up its valuation to $965 billion, topping OpenAI.
To meet the demand for its A.I. products, Anthropic struck
deals worth hundreds of billions to lease computing power from Google, Amazon
and Microsoft. It has also spent on chips from Nvidia and data centers from
Nscale and others. The companies serving Anthropic are, in turn, shelling out
money to their suppliers.
But over the summer, some Anthropic customers concluded they
were spending too much on “tokens,” or units of data processed and generated by
A.I. systems. They sought cheaper options. Meta, one of Anthropic’s largest
customers, projected this year that it would spend as much as $10 billion a
year on the company’s technology, but pulled back as it switched to other A.I.
models.
Stocks of some A.I. companies that went public this year
have wilted. Shares of Cerebras, a Silicon Valley maker of A.I. chips, have
fallen roughly 40 percent from their offering price in May. Shares of
Accelevation, an A.I. infrastructure company, are trading about a third lower
than their $18 offering price in September. Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which went
public in June, has also fallen far from its peak, though it remains roughly 9
percent above its offering price.
Against this backdrop, the market for initial public
offerings has slowed. Holtec, which provides nuclear energy to the A.I. sector,
withdrew its listing last month. SB Energy, a data center company controlled by
SoftBank, one of OpenAI’s biggest backers, and Aggreko, a power company that
works with data centers, have delayed their plans to go public.
A.I. infrastructure is a “dominant theme” of the I.P.O.
market this year, said Matthew Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance
Capital, which tracks public listings. “It’s also been among the hardest hit by
the sell-off these past few weeks.”
Bankers have warned companies that they may not get the
valuations they were contemplating just two months ago. In an earnings call
this month, David Solomon, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, said that
while the market for public offerings was “wide open,” companies seeking
valuations close to those discussed this summer might choose to wait.
“Things got a little bit softer in September,” he said.
Anthropic’s revenue numbers have added to the doubts. The
company had been expected to go public at a valuation as high as $2 trillion.
But after seeing the slowing growth and the market doldrums, some investors
have started discussing a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $1.7 trillion,
according to one person with knowledge of the matter.
A.I. executives have been trying to provide reassurance.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which supplies chips to the A.I.
sector, saw “no ceiling” to its profits, its chief executive, C.C. Wei, said
this month.
Late last week, amid growing concerns about A.I. spending,
the markets fell further. The tech-heavy Nasdaq experienced its largest drop
since June.
Translation
Anthropic上市的意義何在?幾乎關乎一切。
(2/2)
Anthropic 位於由商業夥伴和供應商組成的金字塔頂端,使其成為整體經濟的晴雨表。其首次公開發行 (IPO)將產生廣泛的影響
(繼續)
本月,Anthropic 在舊金山總部召集投資者,展示了其財務表現和成長計劃。從大多數指標來看,其業績令人矚目。該公司第三季營收達168億美元,較上一季成長45%。但投資者將其與第二季141%[與第一季比]的更快成長率進行了比較。
Anthropic 如何解釋成長放緩至關重要。如果是因為該公司市場份額被 OpenAI 或其他使用更便宜的開源AI模型(即驅動聊天機器人和其他生成短片、文字和電腦程式碼的工具的技術)的公司蠶食,那就意味著市場對AI服務的整體需求仍然旺盛。但如果 Anthropic 的成長放緩是因為整個市場對AI產品的需求下降,那麼市場反應可能會更加劇烈。
Anthropic 拒絕置評。
過去一年,Anthropic 一直是矽谷最炙手可熱的公司,這在一定程度上要歸功於 Claude Code,這項服務徹底改變了軟件工程師編寫程式碼的方式。該公司營收飆升,促使私募市場投資者將其估值推高至9,650億美元,超過了OpenAI。
為了滿足對其人工智能產品的需求,Anthropic 與 Google、亞馬遜和微軟達成了價值數千億美元的協議,租賃運算能力。它還斥巨資購買了英偉達的晶片以及 Nscale 等公司的數據庫。而為Anthropic 提供服務的公司,亦要沒有選擇地增加向自己供應商所付出開支。
但今年夏天,一些 Anthropic 的客戶意識到他們在「代幣」(tokens)(即人工智能系統處理和產生的數據單位)上的支出過高,於是開始尋求更經濟的選擇。 Anthropic 最大的客戶之一 Meta今年曾預計每年將在該公司的技術上花費高達100億美元,但隨著轉向其他人工智能模型,該公司減少了這筆支出。
今年一些上市的人工智能公司的股價大幅下跌。矽谷人工智能晶片製造商Cerebras的股價較5月的發行價下跌了約40%。人工智能基礎設施公司 Accelevation 的股價較9月18美元的發行價下跌了約三分之一。馬斯克的 SpaceX 公司於6月上市,股價也遠低於峰值,但仍比發行價高出約9%。
在此背景下,首次公開募股(IPO)市場放緩。為人工智能提供核能的Holtec公司也未能倖免。上個月,一些公司撤回了上市計劃。數據中心公司 SB Energy(由 OpenAI 最大的支持者之一軟銀控股)和為數據中心提供電力服務的公司 Aggreko 都推遲了上市計劃。
追蹤上市的公司 Renaissance Capital 高級策略師 Matthew Kennedy 表示,人工智能基礎設施是今年IPO市場的「主導主題」。 “它也是最受過去幾週拋售衝擊的行業之一。”
銀行家警告各公司,它們可能無法獲得兩個月前預期的估值。高盛首席執行官 David
Solomon 在本月的財報電話會議上表示,儘管 IPO 市場 “開放” ,但那些尋求接近今年夏天討論的估值的公司可能會選擇等待一會。
他說:「9月市場行情有所回落」。
Anthropic 的營收數據也加劇了人們的疑慮。先前市場預期該公司上市時的估值高達2兆美元。但據一位知情人士透露,鑑於增長放緩和市場低迷,一些投資者已開始討論估值在1.5兆至1.7兆美元。
人工智能領域的高階主管一直在努力安撫市場情緒。為人工智能產業供應晶片的台積電執行長C.C. Wei 本月表示,該公司利潤「沒有上限」。
上週的較後時候,由於對人工智能支出的擔憂日益加劇,市場進一步下跌。以科技股為主的Nasdaq指數經歷了自6月以來最大的單日跌幅。
So. Anthropic’s going public will be a litmus test
for the economy, with trillions of dollars at stake. Anthropic is a key player
in the A.I. industry. It is valued in the private markets at nearly $1 trillion
and will become one of the world’s biggest public companies. Anthropic and
OpenAI are sitting at the top in the world of AI business and believe that demands
for A.I. products will keep growing. Apparently, the stakes are getting higher
and higher.
Note:
1. "Shell
out" is an
English idiom that means to pay or spend a large amount of money, often
reluctantly or unexpectedly. In a financial context, it means you are forced to
open your wallet or bank account to hand over cash. In tone, it usually carries
a slightly negative or begrudging connotation. People typically use "shell
out" when they feel something is expensive or when they have no choice but
to pay. (Google)