最佳基因風險評估工具並非對每個人都同樣有效（2/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

The Best Genetic Risk Tools Don’t Work Equally for Everyone (2/2)

Genetic prediction models are poised to revolutionize medicine. But because they have been trained on European DNA, they threaten to widen health care disparities.

The NYT - By Emily Baumgaertner Nunn - Emily Baumgaertner Nunn is a national health reporter for The Times, focusing on public health issues that primarily affect vulnerable communities.

July 20, 2026, 5:01 a.m. ET

(continue)

Major demographic events in history, like mass migrations, explain why genetic findings from people in Africa or of African descent are vital to study. Communities there have accumulated great genetic diversity over hundreds of thousands of years. By contrast, present-day Europeans descend from a small group of Africans who expanded out of Africa about 50,000 years ago. As a result, they have much less diversity.

“If you’re going to pick a population to study for the sake of everybody’s good, the Europeans are the worst you could choose,” said Jay Kaufman, an epidemiologist at McGill University who has written about race and genomics.

The most obvious solution is to recruit more people of color, something the All of Us program says it has prioritized. The group works with local partner organizations like churches and community health centers to host discussion sessions and enroll rural communities through a mobile clinic. It also returns individualized health findings and genetic risks to the participants to establish a sense of reciprocity.

Still, recruitment can be an upstream endeavor, particularly in the United States, which has a history of mistreatment of people of color, from the Tuskegee Syphilis Study to discriminatory sickle-cell screening to the story of Henrietta Lacks, a Black patient whose cancer cells were used for research without her knowledge or consent.

“Why would you contribute if you’ve been wronged in that way in the past?” Dr. Martin said. “There is some earned mistrust that needs to be addressed — to have that level of trust to be willing to say, ‘Take my data, monitor it for decades, do whatever you want with it.’”

In the meantime, researchers designing polygenic risk scores have found technical ways to diversify data. Modeling tools can now pull weighted information from a variety of sources simultaneously, rather than drawing only from the largest European cohorts and then forcing their algorithms onto other groups. Mount Sinai Health System in New York and U.C.L.A. in Los Angeles, for example, have both established more diverse biobanks than the UK Biobank, with each of them containing tens of thousands of genomes.

Scientists also draw from rapidly growing biobanks in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, which bolster the accuracy of polygenic risk scores for East Asian groups. Localized initiatives are underway in Peru, Mexico, Qatar and elsewhere. And a continentwide program called H3Africa is collecting genetic data in African populations and supporting efforts by scientists there to study how genes and environments cause diseases.

Academic networks have also tapped sources beyond biobanks, integrating data from large, disease-specific cohort projects, including the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, or ARIC, which intentionally enrolled thousands of Black participants from North Carolina and Mississippi.

For breast cancer, a project called Confluence aggregates data from over 300 individual studies across 62 countries, providing information from 400,000 breast cancer cases and more than 1.5 million controls. The influx of data from minority groups is being used to sharpen breast cancer polygenic risk scores for everyone.

Private genomics companies and start-ups looking to develop and sell polygenic risk scores do not typically have access to those vast networks. Until recently, they relied almost exclusively on data from the UK Biobank. But the All of Us program recently expanded its policies so that companies can use its more diverse data.

Will all of these efforts, taken together, be enough? It depends on whom you ask. Some experts argue that even an ethnically representative data pool is still imperfect, since variations in other factors — socioeconomic status, health access, age or even sex — can still cause a score’s accuracy to decay. Others believe that the statistical issue was overblown in the first place.

Dr. Kenny, who has been helping to test existing polygenic risk scores for 11 common conditions in racially and ethnically diverse patients, argues that the bias is too complex to resolve quickly.

“I don’t think these things are perfectly portable yet — and maybe never will be perfectly portable,” she said. “But there are things that are starting to narrow that gap.”

Translation

最佳基因風險評估工具並非對每個人都同樣有效（2/2）

基因預測模型有望徹底改變醫學。但由於這些模型是基於歐洲人的DNA訓練的，它們有可能加劇醫療保健方面的差異

（繼續）

歷史上重大的人口發展里程，例如大規模遷徙，解釋了為什麼研究非洲人，或非洲裔人群的基因發現至關重要。這些人群在數十萬年的時間裡累積了豐富的基因多樣性。相較之下，現代歐洲人的祖先是大約5萬年前從非洲遷徙出來的一小群非洲人。因此，他們的基因多樣性要低得多。

曾撰寫過關於種族和基因組學相關文章的麥吉爾大學流行病學家Jay Kaufman說道:「如果你要選擇一個群體進行研究，以造福所有人，那麼歐洲人絕對是最糟糕的選擇」。

最顯而易見的解決方案是招募更多有色人種，這也是「我們所有人」（All of Us）計劃表示優先考慮的事項。該計劃與當地夥伴機構如教會和社區健康中心合作，舉辦討論會，並透過流動診所招募農村社區居民參與。他們也會向參與者提供個人化的健康檢查結果和遺傳風險評估，以建立一種互惠互利的意識。

然而，招募工作可能是一項帶挑戰和困難工作，尤其是在美國。美國歷史上曾多次虐待有色人種，從Tuskegee梅毒實驗到歧視性的鐮狀細胞貧血症篩檢，再到Henrietta Lacks的故事 - 一位黑人患者的癌細胞在未經她知情或同意的情況下被用於研究。

Martin博士問: 「如果你過去曾經遭受過這樣的不公，你又怎麼會願意做出貢獻呢？」; 「目前存在一些根深蒂固的不信任需要加以解決 - 要建立起足夠的信任，才能讓人願意地說： ‘拿取我的數據，監測它幾十年，你想怎麼用都行’」。

同時，設計多基因風險評分的研究人員已經找到了一些技術手段來使數據多樣化。建模工具現在可以同時從各種來源提取加權訊息，而不是僅僅從最大的歐洲群體中提取訊息，然後將其演算法強加給其他群體。例如，紐約的西奈山醫療系統和洛杉磯的加州大學洛杉磯分校都建立了比英國生物銀行更多樣化的生物樣本庫，每個樣本庫都包含數以萬計的基因組。

科學家也利用中國、日本、韓國和台灣地區快速成長的生物樣本庫，這些樣本庫提高了東亞人口多基因風險評分的準確性。秘魯、墨西哥、卡達和其他地區也正在進行類似的本地化計劃。此外，一項名為H3Africa的全非洲大陸計劃正在收集非洲人群的遺傳數據，並支持當地科學家研究基因和環境如何導致疾病。

學術網絡也開始利用生物樣本庫以外的數據來源，去整合大型特異疾病群體研究的數據，例如動脈粥狀硬化風險社群研究（ARIC）。 ARIC 特意招募了數千名來自北卡羅來納州和密西西比州的黑人參與。

在乳癌領域，一個名為 Confluence 的計劃匯聚了來自 62 個國家/地區 300 多項獨立研究的數據，提供了 40 萬個乳癌病例和超過 150 萬個對照的資訊。來自少數族裔群體的大量數據正被用於改善適用於所有人的乳癌多基因風險評分。

希望開發和銷售多基因風險評分的私人基因組學公司和初創公司通常無法存取這些龐大的數據網路。直到最近，他們幾乎完全依賴英國生物樣本庫的數據。但「我們所有人」（All of Us）計劃最近擴大了其政策範圍，允許其他公司使用其擁有的更多樣化的數據。

所有這些努力加起來是否足夠？這取決於你問誰。一些專家認為，即使是具有種族代表性的資料池也並非完美無缺，因為其他因，素例如社會經濟地位、獲得醫療服務能力、年齡甚至性別的差異仍然會導致評分準確性下降。另一些專家則認為，統計學上的問題一開始就被誇大了。

Kenny博士一直在幫助測試針對11種常見疾病的現有多基因風險評分，研究對象涵蓋不同種族和民族的患者。她認為，偏差過於複雜，難以迅速解決。

她說:“ 目前我不認為這些方法能完全通用 - 或許永遠也無法完全通用”; “但有些方法正在縮小那差距。”

               So, scientists are already developing clinical tools and techniques based on genomic information gathered from the agency’s All of Us program. One of the most promising may be the Polygenic risk scores. These can help predict a person’s likelihood of developing complex diseases. Yet the tools were trained overwhelmingly on the DNA of people of European descent, so they often fail to accurately assess risks for other descent. Apparently, we may never be able to completely close the gap that causes health care disparities, but some new approaches are starting to narrow the gap.

最佳基因風險評估工具並非對每個人都同樣有效（1/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

The Best Genetic Risk Tools Don’t Work Equally for Everyone (1/2)

Genetic prediction models are poised to revolutionize medicine. But because they have been trained on European DNA, they threaten to widen health care disparities.

The NYT - By Emily Baumgaertner Nunn - Emily Baumgaertner Nunn is a national health reporter for The Times, focusing on public health issues that primarily affect vulnerable communities.

July 20, 2026, 5:01 a.m. ET

The National Institutes of Health recently announced a remarkable achievement: the world’s largest database of human genomes, a repository of information that the agency says will help usher in a new era in personalized medicine.

Scientists are already developing clinical tools and techniques based on genomic information gathered from the agency’s All of Us program. One of the most promising? Polygenic risk scores. These can help predict a person’s likelihood of developing complex diseases, like cardiovascular disease and breast cancer, from as early as infancy.

But there’s a glaring problem: The tools were trained overwhelmingly on the DNA of people of European descent, so they often fail to accurately assess risks for anyone else. For some conditions, the forecasts for people of color are almost no better than flipping a coin.

Researchers are racing to correct the biases through advancements in modeling and widespread recruitment of minority groups. They fear that failing to close the gaps could worsen health care disparities — and prevent the technology from realizing its promise of helping to decrease chronic disease.

“It really warrants attention,” said Eimear Kenny, the director of the Institute for Genomic Health at Mount Sinai and a principal investigator in a national consortium that tests the genetic scores.

Geneticists measure a polygenic risk score by aggregating hundreds or thousands of tiny variations across the genome, many of which might nudge a person’s disease risk by only a fraction. By bundling them together, they can generate a cumulative score, ranking a person’s predisposition to common killers.

For patients at the extremely high end of the risk distribution, the scores can offer a medical advantage, potentially giving doctors a decades-long runway to intervene. Those in the highest percentiles for a cardiovascular disease score, for instance, can be prescribed cholesterol-lowering statins earlier, potentially helping prevent some heart attacks and strokes.

But the entire premise rests on the data used to train the model in the first place. The UK Biobank — established in the early 2000s and widely considered a leading genomic trove — is overwhelmingly homogenous; roughly 94 percent of its participants are white. The Million Veteran Program, a repository run by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, is almost three-quarters white.

The cohort in the All of Us program, built by the N.I.H. with the goal of diversifying data, is still about 50 percent European, according to Alicia Martin, a statistical geneticist at the Broad Institute. The effort’s future is also at risk: One of its major funding streams, the 21st Century Cures Act, is set to expire at the end of this fiscal year. (The program’s budget has already been reduced by 72 percent since 2023.)

“You can’t just snap your fingers and overnight have a biobank from Africa, a biobank from India, a biobank from China that are all as large and open and comprehensive as the UK Biobank,” Dr. Martin said. “We can develop all the fancy statistical methods we want, but still not be able to overcome without more diverse representation.”

Other clinical tools could be affected by the ancestry bias, such as integrated artificial intelligence models that draw upon genomics and other biomedical data. Doctors who sequence a genome to look for rare mutations may also find genetic variants in patients of color that researchers have not studied enough to understand.

Genetic blind spots can also cause scientists to miss discoveries that benefit everyone. One example: the PCSK9 gene. Scientists found that a rare mutation that occurred mostly in a small proportion of Black people could naturally reduce the risk of developing coronary heart disease by 88 percent. That set off a race to develop drugs that mimic the mutation for people of all races and ethnicities. But scientists only found the variant because one study in Dallas had ensured that its participant pool was more than half Black.

(to be continued)

Translation

最佳基因風險評估工具並非對每個人都同樣有效（1/2）

基因預測模型有望徹底改變醫學。但由於這些模型是基於歐洲人的DNA進行訓練的，它們有可能加劇醫療保健方面的差異

美國國立衛生研究院（NIH）最近宣布了一項非凡的成就：建立了世界上最大的人類基因組資料庫。該機構表示，這個資訊庫將有助於開啟個人化醫療的新時代。

科學家已經開始基於NIH的「我們所有人」（All of Us）計劃所收集的基因組資訊來開發臨床工具和技術。其中最有前景的是什麼？多基因風險評分。這些評分可以幫助預測一個人從嬰兒時期開始患上複雜疾病（如心血管疾病和乳癌）的可能性。

但有一個顯而易見的問題：這些工具主要基於歐洲裔族群的DNA進行訓練，因此往往無法準確評估其他族群的風險。對於某些疾病，對有色人種的預測結果幾乎不比擲硬幣好到哪裡去。

研究人員正爭分奪秒地透過改進建模技術和廣泛招募少數族裔群體來糾正這些偏差。他們擔心，如果無法彌合這些差距，可能會加劇醫療保健方面的差異，並阻礙這項技術實現其降低慢性病發病率的承諾。

西奈山基因組健康研究所 所長、同時負責測試基因評分的國家聯盟首席研究員Eimear Kenny表示:「這確實值得關注」。

遺傳學家透過匯集基因組中數百或數千個微小變異來測量多基因風險評分，其中許多變異可能只會對一個人的患病風險產生微乎其微的影響。而透過將這些變異組合在一起，他們可以產生一個累積評分，從而評估一個人罹患常見致命疾病的傾向。

對於處於風險分佈極高端的患者而言，這些評分可以提供醫療優勢，使醫生有長達數十年的干預時間。例如，心血管疾病評分處於最高百份位的患者可以更早服用降膽固醇的他汀類藥物，這可能有助於預防部分心臟病和中風。

但這一切的前提都建立在最初用來訓練模型的資料之上。英國生物銀行（UK Biobank）－成立於21世紀初，被廣泛認為是領先的基因組資料庫－其參與者構成極為單一，約94%為白人。由美國退伍軍人事務部營運的「百萬退伍軍人計劃」（Million Veteran Program）作為一個資料庫其參與者中近四分之三為白人。

據Broad Institute的統計遺傳學家Alicia Martin稱，由美國國立衛生研究院（NIH）建立的「我們所有人」（All of Us）計劃是旨在實現數據多樣化，但該計劃的參與者中仍有約50%為歐洲人。而這項工作的未來也面臨風險：其主要資金來源之一 - 《21世紀治癒法案》 - 將於本財政年度結束時到期。 （自2023年以來，該項目的預算已被削減了72%。）

Martin博士說: 「 你不能打個響指就可以可以在一夜間建立一個像英國生物銀行一樣規模龐大、全面開放、覆蓋面廣闊的非洲生物銀行、印度生物銀行、中國生物銀行」; 「我們可以發展出各種炫麗的統計方法，但如果沒有更多樣化的代表性，我們仍然無法克服這個問題」。

其他臨床工具也可能受到種族偏差的影響，例如利用基因組學和其他生物醫學數據的整合人工智能模型。醫生在進行基因組定序以尋找罕見突變時，也可能在有色人種患者身上發現一些研究人員尚未充分研究的基因變異。

基因盲點也可能導致科學家錯過一些對所有人都有益處的發現。例如：PCSK9基因。科學家發現，一種主要存在於少數黑人中的罕見基因突變，能夠自然地將罹患冠心病的風險降低88%。這引發了一場旨在模仿這種突變研發藥物的競賽，做出適用於所有種族和民族的人藥物。但科學家之所以能夠發現這種變異，是因為達拉斯的一項研究確保了其參與者中的黑人佔超過一半。

 （待續）

中國經濟成長創多年來新低（2/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

 China’s Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Years (2/2)

Economic growth of 4.3 percent in the second quarter, versus the same period last year, reflected a broad slump outside of the country’s export-oriented manufacturing might.

The NYT -By Alexandra Stevenson and Murphy Zhao - Reporting from Hong Kong

July 15, 2026

Updated 2:38 a.m. ET

(continue)

For China’s leadership, the question now is, what to do next? Li Qiang, China’s premier, told a group of entrepreneurs this week that officials were focusing on new drivers of consumption and ensuring job stabilization.

“It is important to take a comprehensive and objective view of the current economic situation, fully recognizing the achievements made while remaining cleareyed about the problems,” said Mr. Li, according to state media, which ran a story about the meeting on the front page of the official People’s Daily.

Some economists anticipate a discussion of fresh stimulus measures at a meeting of top policymakers later this month. On Monday, officials announced a plan to target $8.85 trillion of annual retail sales by 2030, implying a 20 percent rise from last year.

Beijing also promised to raise wages and increase household consumption as a share of the economy. It is currently around 40 percent, significantly lower than the 60 percent share of gross domestic product for most developed countries.

But analysts said these goals are not particularly ambitious. And stubbornly reluctant consumers in China show few signs of opening their wallets further.

On social media forums, shoppers share tips on how to scrimp and save, rallying around the motto to “save where you can, spend where you must.”

Users share tips about “shopping cart cooling-off periods,” or leaving nonessential items in carts for three days before deciding to buy them. (The practice is a wry nod to the officially enforced “cooling-off period” for couples seeking divorces.)

Others push to replace foreign cosmetic brands with cheaper local alternatives, and to substitute skin care products with baby lotion. “Buy what’s right, not what’s pricey,” a user on the social media network Weibo posted recently.

All the while, sales have continued to fall for products as varied as cosmetics and automobiles. For categories like cars, the recent plunge has been accentuated by the end of a policy to incentivize purchases.

Since a devastating property crash, Chinese policymakers have tried to replace the growth generated by the real estate sector with more robust consumer spending. They rolled out huge subsidies for households to trade in old cars, home appliances and phones from 2024 through last year.

While it generated some activity, the policy failed to address the plummeting value of property, where most household wealth is concentrated. Now, economists say, China is in a “payback period” following the jump in policy-induced sales.

As the economy splits between the relatively few who benefit from China’s role in the global A.I. boom and the rest, the divide is having a profound impact on the country’s social fabric.

China’s property bust has led to more than 14 million people losing construction jobs. Many of those workers bought apartments in smaller cities, far from the pockets of A.I.-generated wealth that may revive parts of the property market.

The A.I. boom “doesn’t benefit ordinary people in China because this priority, the industrial focus on high tech and semiconductors, actually causes structural unemployment and underemployment,” said Dan Wang, the China director at Eurasia Group, a consulting firm.

What’s more, Ms. Wang said, disposable income growth is now lower than economic growth. If that continues, she noted, “that means the national income is skewed in distribution toward government and companies, and not consumers.”

Translation

中國經濟成長創多年來新低（2/2）

第二季經濟成長4.3%，與去年同期相比，反映出除出口導向製造業之外，中國經濟普遍下滑

（繼續）

對中國領導階層而言，現在的問題是：下一步該怎麼辦？中國總理李強本週對一群企業家表示，官員正著力尋找新的消費動力，並確保就業穩定。

根據官方媒體報道，李強總理表示：「重要的是要全面客觀地看待當前的經濟形勢，充分肯定已取得的成就，同時也要清醒地認識到存在的問題。」《人民日報》頭版刊登了關於此次會議的報道。

一些經濟學家預計，本月晚些時候，高層決策者將召開會議，討論新的刺激措施。週一，官員們宣佈了一項計劃，目標是到2030年實現8.85兆美元的年度零售額，這意味著比去年增長20%。

北京方面也承諾提高工資，並提高家庭消費佔經濟總量的比重。目前，家庭消費佔國內生產毛額（GDP）的比重約為40%，遠低於大多數已開發國家60%的水準。

但分析人士表示，這些目標並不算特別雄心勃勃。而且中國那些固執地不願花錢的消費者，幾乎沒有進一步去增加支出的跡象。

在社交媒體論壇上，購物者分享著如何精打細算的技巧，他們奉行著「能省則省，當用則用」的原則。

用戶們也分享了「購物車冷靜期」的技巧，也就是把非必需品放在購物車裡三天後再決定是否要購買。 （這種做法是對官方強制執行的離婚夫婦「冷靜期」的一種諷刺。）

另一些人則試圖用更便宜的本土品牌化妝品取代外國品牌，用嬰兒潤膚露代替保養品。 一位微博用戶最近發文說:「買合用的，不買貴價的」。

同時，包括化妝品和汽車在內的各種產品的銷量持續下滑。對於汽車等類別而言，近期的暴跌因一項旨在刺激消費政策的結束而加劇。

自從房地產市場崩盤以來，中國決策者一直試圖用更強勁的消費支出來彌補房地產行業帶來的成長。他們從2024年開始，為家庭以舊換新提供巨額補貼，用於舊車、舊家電和舊手機的置換。

雖然這項政策刺激了一些消費活動，但它未能解決房地產價值暴跌的問題，而大部分家庭財富都集中在房地產領域。經濟學家表示，在政策所刺激的急增銷售後，中國目前正處於「償還期」。

隨著經濟因出現少數受益於中國在全球人工智能熱潮的人，與其餘人群之間出現分化。這種分化正在對中國的社會結構產生深遠的影響。

中國的房地產泡沫破裂導致超過1,400萬人失去了建築業的工作。許多這些工人在較細小的城市購買了公寓房，遠離一些人工智可能創造財富而重振部分房地產市場的小區。

諮詢公司歐亞集團 中國區的總監Dan Wang表示，人工智能熱潮「並沒有惠及中國的普通民眾，因為這種優先發展高科技和半導體產業的政策實際上導致了結構性失業和就業不足」。

此外，Wang女士也指出，目前可支配收入的成長低於經濟成長。她表示，如果這種情況持續下去，“這意味著國民收入的分配將向政府和企業傾斜，而不是向消費者傾斜。”

          So, China’s economy is at the slowest point in three years, reflecting a broader slump. Although China’s factories are churning out chips and electric cars to supply a global boom in artificial intelligence and energy-saving products, many Chinese people are feeling squeezed at home. The economy is splitting between the relatively few who benefit from China’s role in the global A.I. boom and the rest. Furthermore, it is noted that people’s disposable income growth is now lower than economic growth. If that continues, it would mean that the national income is skewed in distribution toward government and companies, not consumers. Apparent, the government needs to do more to deal with the economic slowdown.

中國經濟成長創多年來新低（1/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

China’s Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Years (1/2)

Economic growth of 4.3 percent in the second quarter, versus the same period last year, reflected a broad slump outside of the country’s export-oriented manufacturing might.

The NYT -By Alexandra Stevenson and Murphy Zhao - Reporting from Hong Kong

July 15, 2026

Updated 2:38 a.m. ET

China’s economy last quarter grew at the slowest rate in three years, reflecting a broader slump that the country’s leaders signaled earlier this year when they set the lowest growth target in more than three decades.

On Wednesday, that National Bureau of Statistics said that the economy expanded by 4.3 percent in the second quarter, compared to a year ago, down from a 5 percent pace in the first quarter and short of economists’ expectations.

Although China’s factories are churning out chips and electric cars to supply a global boom in artificial intelligence and energy-saving products, many Chinese people are feeling squeezed at home.

A long-running property crisis has no end in sight, with steep declines in construction dragging down economic growth. Jobs outside of factories are hard to come by and paychecks are not growing. Retail sales of consumer goods have been choppy. They fell in May, for the first time since the end of Covid-19 lockdowns in late 2022, before recovering somewhat in June.

That is in stark contrast to China’s relentless strength in manufacturing and trade, with a government report released on Tuesday showing China’s exports surging by 27 percent in June compared with a year earlier, driven by shipments of chips, batteries and cars. China’s trade surplus in June, at more than $125 billion, was second largest on record.

In other words, China’s mighty export machine is masking weaknesses elsewhere.

“You get this A.I. boom, which is a global thing, and China is part of the leading nations on the frontier,” said Yu Song, the chief China economist at UBS Securities. “Without this, China’s economy would be in a much worse state.”

When measured on a quarter-to-quarter basis, China’s economy expanded by only 0.9 percent in the second quarter. When projected out for a year, the second-quarter data implies that the economy was growing at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, sharply down from a pace of more than 6 percent in the first quarter.

The second-quarter annualized rate also missed official targets. Shortcomings in China’s economic growth drivers prompted the ruling Communist Party earlier this year to set the lowest annual growth target in decades, with a goal of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent this year.

Stepping back to consider the trends in the first half of the year, economists say that China’s manufacturing and export prowess, however robust, cannot carry growth on its own.

Industrial production rose by 5.4 percent in the first six months of the year, versus the same period last year. High-tech manufacturing rose by more than 13 percent over that period. But fixed asset investment — which includes infrastructure, property construction and manufacturing — fell by 5.7 percent. Real estate development dropped 18 percent.

The value of China’s exports surged by more than 20 percent in the first half. But consumer spending, which a Moody’s Analytics report said “remains the economy’s weakest link,” faltered. Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3 percent over the first half of the year.

The effects of the war in Iran have pinched Chinese households, with rising fuel prices prompting them to drive and fly less, at a time when many were already worried about the economy and choosing to save more.

China has softened the blow of rising fuel costs by controlling the price at the pump, but the cost of filling up for drivers is still double-digit percentages higher than a year ago.

One silver lining, economists said, was that rising fuel prices started to feed through to broader inflation in the quarter, reversing a problem that China has struggled to shake: more than three years of a broad-based decline in prices. Such deflation tends to chill spending, with consumers putting off purchases in expectation that prices will be lower in the future.

China’s gross domestic product deflator, a broad measure of prices across the economy, was negative in 13 of the past 14 quarters — the most protracted slump on record. But it turned positive in the second quarter.

(to be continued)

Translation

中國經濟成長創多年來新低（1/2）

 第二季經濟成長4.3%，與去年同期相比，反映出除出口導向製造業以外的整個經濟領域普遍下滑

中國經濟上季成長創三年新低，反映出更廣泛的經濟下滑趨勢。今年早些時候，中國領導人設定了三十多年來的最低成長目標，也預示了這一趨勢。

週三，國家統計局公佈的數據顯示，第二季中國經濟年增4.3%，低於第一季的5%，也低於經濟學家的預期。

儘管中國工廠正源源不絕地生產晶片和電動車，以滿足全球人工智能和節能產品的需求，但許多中國人卻在國內感到生活拮据。

長期存在的房地產危機仍看不到盡頭，建築業的急劇下滑拖累了經濟成長。工廠以外的工作機會難得，薪資成長也停滯不前。消費品零售額波動不定。 5月份，自2022年底新冠疫情封鎖措施解除以來，零售額首次出現下滑，6月略有回升。

這與中國製造業和貿易的強勁勢頭形成鮮明對比。週二發佈的一份政府報告顯示，受晶片、電池和汽車出貨量的推動，中國6月出口額年增27%。 6月中國貿易順差超過1,250億美元，創史上第二高。

換句話說，中國強大的出口機器遮掩了其他方面的疲軟。

瑞銀證券首席中國經濟學家Yu Song表示：“人工智能的蓬勃發展是全球性的，而中國是走在前端的領先國家之一。如果沒有人工智能，中國經濟的狀況會糟糕得多。”

按季度環比計算，中國經濟第二季僅成長0.9%。若將第二季的數據推算至一年，則經濟年化成長率為3.6%，較第一季超過6%的成長速度大幅下降。

第二季的年化成長率也低於官方目標。由於中國經濟成長動力不足，執政的中國共產黨在今年稍早設定了數十年來最低的年度成長目標，將今年的成長率目標設定在4.5%至5%之間。

回顧上半年的發展趨勢，經濟學家指出，儘管中國的製造業和出口實力強勁，但僅靠這些優勢無法支撐經濟成長。

相比去年同期，今年上半年，工業生產年增5.4%。高科技製造業年增超過13%。但固定資產投資（包括基礎建設、房地產建設和製造業）下降5.7%。房地產開發下降18%。

中國上半年出口額成長超過20%。但消費支出卻步履維艱 - 穆迪分析公司一份報告稱，消費支出「仍然是經濟最薄弱的一環」。上半年，消費品零售額成長1.3%。

伊朗戰爭的影響給中國家庭帶來了壓力，不斷上漲的燃料價格促使他們減少駕車和乘坐飛機。當前許多人已經對經濟狀況感到擔憂，並選擇增加儲蓄。

中國透過控制油價緩解了燃油成本上漲的衝擊，但目前駕駛者的入油成本仍比一年前高出兩位數百份比。

經濟學家指出，有一線希望在於燃油價格上漲在本季開始傳導至更廣泛的通膨，扭轉了中國長期以來難以擺脫的通縮局面：三年多來物價普遍下跌。這種通貨緊縮往往會抑制消費，消費者會延後購買，預期未來價格會更低。

中國的國內生產總值平減指數（衡量經濟整體物價水準的指標）在過去14季中有13季為負值，創下歷史最長的低迷期。但該指數在第二季轉正。

（待續）

SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son: "The Landscape Will Change with the Spread of AI Agents"

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

ソフトバンクG 孫社長 “AIエージェント普及で景色変わる”

2026年7月14日15:34

(2026年7月14日20:59更新)

生成AI・人工知能

ソフトバンクグループの孫正義社長は14日の講演で、2040年には自律的に仕事を行う「AIエージェント」の普及が見込まれるとして、稼働に必要な電力やデータセンターといったインフラ投資を強化していく考えを示しました。

ソフトバンクグループの孫正義社長は、14日、取引先などを集めたイベントで講演しました。

この中で孫社長は、AIの未来像について、2040年には人に代わって自律的に仕事を行う「AIエージェント」が広く普及していることが見込まれるとした上で、「AIエージェントが世界に100兆個誕生する。AIエージェントを宿したロボットが肉体労働の中心になるだろう。世の中の景色は完全に変わる」と述べました。

その上で、膨大なAIを動かすためにはデータセンターや電力、半導体などのAIインフラへの投資が世界で年間5兆ドル、日本円で800兆円規模で必要になるという試算を示し、「非常に大きな金額だが、2040年には世界のGDPの20％をAIが占めると見ている。日本にとどまるだけでなくアメリカを中心に攻めていかないといけない」と述べ、会社としてAIインフラ投資を強化していく考えを示しました。

AI組み込んだロボットアーム披露 フィジカルAIの開発で

ソフトバンクグループでは、AIが自律的に判断してロボットなどを動かす「フィジカルAI」の開発にも力を入れていて、会場では、AIと組み合わせた最新のロボットアームが実演されました。

このロボットアームは、子会社のソフトバンクと産業用ロボットの大手メーカー「安川電機」が共同で開発しました。

従来のロボットアームでは、前もって配置が決まっている上、形も安定したモノしか持ち上げることができませんでしたが、AIがカメラで形を認識することで布やひもなどもつかめるようになったということです。

会場では実際にロボットアームが、電気ケーブルをつかんで箱の中に収納する様子が披露されました。

会社では、これらのロボットアームを活用できれば、オフィスでの在庫の補充や掃除のほか、家庭で洗濯物をたたむなど工場以外での活用も期待できるとしています。

ソフトバンクの先端AIプラットフォーム統括部の山科瞬統括部長は「人材不足が課題になる中で、これまで人しかできなかった作業をフィジカルAIが実現できるようになれば、労働力を補うことができる。今後フィジカルAIができることを増やしていく必要がある」と話しています。

Translation

SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son: "The Landscape Will Change with the Spread of AI Agents"

July 14, 2026, 3:34 PM

(Updated July 14, 2026, 8:59 PM)

Generative AI/Artificial Intelligence

SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son (孫正義) stated in a speech on the 14th that he expected "AI agents" that could perform work autonomously would be widespread by 2040, and indicated his intention to strengthen investment in infrastructure such as power and data centers necessary for their operation.

SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son gave a speech at an event attended by business partners and others on the 14th.

In his speech, CEO Son spoke about the future of AI, stating that "AI agents" that could perform work autonomously in place of humans were expected to be widely used by 2040. He added that "100 trillion AI agents will be created worldwide. Robots equipped with AI agents will become central to manual labor. The landscape of the world will completely change."

Furthermore, he presented an estimate that running a massive AI system would require an annual investment of $5 trillion globally, or approximately 800 trillion yen, in AI infrastructure such as data centers, power, and semiconductors. He stated, "This is a very large sum, but we predict that AI will account for 20% of global GDP by 2040. We must not only stay in Japan, we need to aggressively target markets, primarily focusing on the United States.," indicating the company's intention to strengthen its investment in AI infrastructure.

AI-Integrated Robot Arm Unveiled: Development of Physical AI

At SoftBank Group, they're also putting a lot of effort into developing 'Physical AI,' where AI autonomously made decisions to operate robots etc. At the venue, the latest robot arm combined with AI was demonstrated.

This robot arm was jointly developed by SoftBank, a subsidiary, together with Yaskawa Electric, a leading manufacturer of industrial robots.

Conventional robot arms could only pick up objects with predetermined positions and stable shapes, but by using AI to recognize shapes with a camera, it could now grasp cloth, strings, and other materials.

At the venue, a demonstration was given showing a robotic arm grasping electrical cables and storing them in a box.

The company expected that these robotic arms could be used not only for replenishing inventory and cleaning in offices, but also for tasks outside of factories, such as folding laundry at home.

Shun Yamashina (山科瞬), General Manager of SoftBank's Advanced AI Platform Coordination Department, said, "With labor shortages becoming a challenge, if physical AI can perform tasks that only humans could do before, it can supplement the workforce. We need to increase the capabilities of physical AI from now on."

So, conventional robot arms after equipped with AI to recognize shapes through a camera could now grasp cloth, strings, and other materials. In future it could also be designed for tasks outside of factories. SoftBank predicts that massive AI system will require an annual investment of $5 trillion globally, and will account for 20% of global GDP by 2040. Apparently, physical AI will be more and more popular soon.

Ukraine's Civilian Casualties Exceed 2,200 in June: Highest in Four Years - UN

 Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

6月のウクライナ民間人死傷者2200人超 過去4年で最多 国連

2026年7月15日8:33

ウクライナ情勢

国連の人権監視団は14日、ロシアによる軍事侵攻が続くウクライナについて、先月の民間人の死傷者は2200人を超え、侵攻直後の2022年4月以降、月別で最も多くなったと明らかにしました。

国連ウクライナ人権監視団は14日、ロシア軍の攻撃によるウクライナの民間人の死傷者は先月、少なくとも2283人だったと明らかにしました。

内訳は死者が293人、けが人が1990人で、侵攻直後の2022年4月以降、月別で最も多くなったとしています。

死傷者が増加した背景について、人権監視団は都市部の人口密集地域への強力な兵器の使用が増えているためだとしています。

一方、ウクライナのゼレンスキー大統領は14日、SNSに動画を投稿するとともに、ロシア中部のバシコルトスタン共和国や南部のクラスノダール地方の石油精製施設を攻撃したと発表しました。

また、黒海に面する街、ゲレンジークでは、ロシア産の石油を運ぶいわゆる「影の船団」のタンカーなどを攻撃したとしています。

ゼレンスキー大統領は「戦争を終わらせなければならない」としたうえで、ロシアへの圧力を強化し、和平に向けた交渉開始を迫りたい考えを示しました。

Translation

Ukraine's Civilian Casualties Exceed 2,200 in June: Highest in Four Years - UN

July 15, 2026, 8:33 AM

Ukraine Situation

On the 14th, the UN human rights monitoring team revealed that over 2,200 civilians were killed or injured in Ukraine last month due to Russia's ongoing military invasion, marking the highest monthly toll since April 2022 when the invasion began.

 The UN Observatory for Human Rights in Ukraine announced on the 14th that at least 2,283 Ukrainian civilians were killed or injured in the Russian military attacks last month.

The breakdown was 293 dead and 1,990 injured, the highest monthly figure since April 2022 when the invasion began.

The Human Rights Observatory attributed the increase in casualties to the increased use of powerful weapons against densely populated urban areas.

Meanwhile, on the 14th, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy posted a video on social media announcing attacks on oil refineries in the Republic of Bashkortostan in central Russia and the Krasnodar Krai in the south.

It was also stated that in the city of Gelendzhik which was facing the Black Sea, attacks were made on tankers carrying Russian oil, the so-called "shadow fleet".

President Zelenskyy declared that "the war must end" and indicated his intention to increase pressure on Russia and force the start of peace negotiations.

              So, the UN announces that at least 2,283 Ukrainian civilians were killed or injured in the Russian military attacks last month, the highest monthly figure since the invasion begins. Apparently, Ukraine is breeding and needs more air defense system to protect its people.

Apple Sues OpenAI: Alleged Theft of Trade Secrets

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

アップルがオープンAIを提訴 “企業秘密盗まれた”

2026年7月11日12:53

アメリカ

アメリカのIT大手アップルは、自社の機密情報を盗んで独自の端末を開発しようとしているとして、生成AIのChatGPTを開発するオープンAIを訴えました。

アップルが10日、西部カリフォルニア州の連邦地方裁判所に提訴したのは、アップルの元従業員で、現在、オープンAIで端末の開発に関わる2人と、オープンAIなどです。

アップルは訴状で「オープンAIは、技術スタッフからハードウエアの責任者に至るあらゆるレベルにおいて、アップルの企業秘密や機密情報を盗み取ってきた」として、組織的な不正行為だと主張しています。

具体的には、アップルからオープンAIへの転職を希望する従業員に対し、面接の際、製品のサンプルを持ってくるよう指示するなどして、製造技術を不正に取得したとしています。

オープンAIは去年、iPhoneなどのデザインを手がけたアップルの元幹部が率いるスタートアップ企業を買収し、新たにAIを搭載した端末の開発に乗り出しています。

オープンAIの広報担当者は「当社は、他社の企業秘密には一切、関心がない。世界中の人々に力を与える革新的な技術開発に注力する」とコメントしています。

両社はこれまでiPhoneに搭載するAIの機能で提携してきましたが、オープンAIが端末開発に乗り出したことを受けて、競合関係へと変化しています。

Translation

Apple Sues OpenAI: Alleged Theft of Trade Secrets

July 11, 2026, 12:53 PM

United States

American IT giant Apple sued OpenAI, the developer of the generative AI ChatGPT, alleging that OpenAI stole Apple's confidential information to develop its own devices.

On July 10, Apple filed the lawsuit in a federal district court in California against two former Apple employees currently involved in device development at OpenAI, as well as OpenAI itself.

In its complaint, Apple claimed that OpenAI had systematically stolen Apple's trade secrets and confidential information at every level, from technical staff to hardware managers.

Specifically, the company allegedly obtained manufacturing technology fraudulently by instructing employees who wanted to switch jobs from Apple to OpenAI to bring product samples to interviews.

Last year, OpenAI acquired a startup led by a former Apple executive who designed iPhones and other devices, and had since embarked on developing new AI-powered devices.

An OpenAI spokesperson commented, "We have no interest in other companies' trade secrets. We focus on developing innovative technologies that empower people around the world."

The two companies had previously collaborated on AI features for iPhones, but with OpenAI now venturing into device development, their relationship shifted to one of competition.

              So, American IT giant Apple sues OpenAI, alleging that OpenAI has stolen Apple's confidential information. Apparently, it is a common phenomenon that AI companies may be partners at one time and competitors at another time.