Recently the New York Times reported the following:
Record Debt in the World’s Richest Nations Threatens
Global Growth (1/2)
The cost of borrowing is already choking crucial public
spending in many developing economies. Now it’s raising broader alarms.
By Patricia Cohen - Patricia Cohen, who has written
frequently about debt across the world, is the global economics correspondent
in London.
Jan. 27, 2026
Updated 9:34 a.m. ET
For decades crushing debt has spread misery in the world’s
poor and lower-income nations. But the menace of unsupportable borrowing that
now hangs over the global economy emanates from some of the richest countries.
Record or near-record debt in the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Japan threatens to hamstring growth and sow financial instability around the globe.
At home, it means countries must make interest payments with money that otherwise could have paid for health care, roads, public housing, technological advances or education.
The hunger for more and more loans has also pushed up borrowing costs, gobbling up a bigger share of taxpayer money. It can also push up rates on business, consumer and car loans, as well as mortgages and credit cards; and drive up inflation.
And perhaps most worrisome, overhanging debt — pumped up even when an economy is relatively sound and jobless rates are low, like the United States — gives governments less room to respond when things sour.
“You want to be able to spend big and spend fast when you
need to,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economics professor.
What happens if there’s a financial crisis, a pandemic or a
war? What if there’s a sudden need for more social services spending and
jobless relief because of changes caused by artificial intelligence or
climate-related disasters?
Borrowing a lot of money quickly becomes more difficult — and expensive — when the national debt is already sky-high.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, President Trump commanded center stage, but on the sidelines, finance ministers fretted over their ability to fund a growing list of must-haves, from beefed-up militaries to upgraded electricity grids.
Government borrowing when an economy is strong, and when interest rates are low, can support growth, and in times of distress can help bolster spending. The cycle of supercharged borrowing began with the 2008 financial crisis and recession, when governments rushed to provide assistance to struggling households and tax revenues fell. Relief programs during the Covid-19 pandemic, as economies shut down and health care costs rocketed, kicked debt levels up another notch as interest rates were rising and outpacing growth.
But debt levels did not decline. And now, in six of the wealthy Group of 7 nations, the national debt equals or exceeds the country’s annual economic output, according to the International Monetary Fund.
More and more countries are being squeezed by demographics and slow growth. In Europe, Britain and Japan, aging populations have driven up the government’s health care and pension costs at the same time that the number of workers who provide the necessary tax revenue has shrunk.
The need to rebuild infrastructure and invest in advanced technology in many regions is also dire. A yearlong study requested by the European Union’s executive arm concluded that the 27-member bloc needed to spend an additional $900 billion on things like artificial intelligence, a shared energy grid, supercomputing and advanced worker training to effectively compete.
In Britain, it will cost at least 300 billion pounds ($410 billion) to upgrade infrastructure over the next decade, according to Future Governance Forum, a think tank in London. Billions more will be needed to revitalize its limping National Health Service.
Efforts to trim public spending in Italy, where debt equals 138 percent of gross domestic product, by cutting health care, education and public services, or in France by raising the retirement age, have set off vehement protests.
France, which has been politically deadlocked over the budget for months, saw its sovereign debt rating downgraded last fall, raising questions about the country’s financial stability.
Meanwhile, the world has turned more dangerous. Tensions between China and the United States have sharpened. Europe is threatened by an increasingly aggressive Russia and a belligerent American president.
(to be continued)
Translation
世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球經濟成長（1/2）
借貸成本已經嚴重阻礙了許多發展中經濟體的關鍵公共支出。如今，它引發了更廣泛的警示。
幾十年來，沉重的債務為世界上的貧困和低收入國家帶來了苦難。但如今籠罩全球經濟的難以承受的借貸威脅，卻來自一些最富裕的國家。
美國、英國、法國、義大利和日本的債務已達到或接近歷史最高水平，這有可能阻礙經濟成長，並在全球引發金融不穩定。
在這國內，這意味著各國必須以原本可用於醫療保健、道路、公共住宅、技術進步或教育的資金來支付利息。
對貸款需求的不斷增長也推高了借貸成本，吞噬了納稅人越來越多的資金。這也會導致商業貸款、消費貸款、汽車貸款、抵押貸款和信用卡利率上漲，並推高通貨膨脹。
或許最令人擔憂的是，即使在經濟相對穩健、失業率較低的情況下, 例如美國，頭頂的債務也不斷攀升，這使得政府在情況惡化時應對能力下降。
哈佛大學經濟學教授Kenneth
Rogoff 說:「你要能夠在有需要時, 可以快速且大規模地用錢」。
如果發生金融危機、疫情或戰爭會怎樣？如果因為人工智能或氣候災害帶來的變化，突然需要增加社會服務支出和失業救濟金時又會怎麼樣？
當國家債務已經高得驚人時，借貸就會變得更加困難，成本也會更高。
上週在達沃斯舉行的世界經濟論壇上，特朗普總統佔據了舞台焦點，但在旁邊，各國財長卻為能否為日益增長的「必需品」清單提供資金而憂心忡忡，這些必需品包括加強軍備和升級電網。
在經濟強勁、利率較低時，政府借貸可以支持經濟成長；而在經濟困境時期，借貸則會刺激開支。這種過度借貸的周期始於2008年的金融危機和經濟衰退，當時各國政府爭相向陷入困境的家庭提供援助，導致稅收下降。新冠疫情期間，隨著經濟停擺和醫療成本飆升，救助計劃進一步推高了債務水平，因為利率上升的速度超過了經濟成長速度。
但債務水平並未下降。根據國際貨幣基金組織統計，如今，在富裕的七國集團（G7）中，有六個國家的國債等於或超過了該國的年度經濟產出。
越來越多的國家正受到人口結構變化和經濟成長放緩的雙重壓力。在歐洲、英國和日本，人口老化推高了政府的醫療保健和退休金支出，同時，貢獻必要稅收的勞工人數卻在減少。
許多地區重建基礎設施和投資先進技術的需求也十分迫切。歐盟執行機構委託進行的一項為期一年的研究得出結論：歐盟27個成員國需要額外投入9000億美元用於人工智能、共享能源網、超級計算和高級勞動力培訓等領域，才能有效參與競爭。
據倫敦智庫「未來治理論壇」稱，未來十年，英國至少需要3,000億英鎊（4,100億美元）用於基礎設施升級。此外，還需要數十億英鎊來振興其步履蹣跚的國民醫療服務體系（NHS）。
在義大利，債務相當於國內生產毛額的138%，政府試圖透過削減醫療保健、教育和公共服務來削減公共支出；在法國，政府則試圖提高退休年齡。這些舉措都引發了強烈的抗議。
法國因預算問題陷入數月政治僵局，其主權債務評級於去年秋季有所下調，引發了人們對該國金融穩定的擔憂。
同時，世界局勢變得更加危險。中美關係日益緊張。歐洲面對日益咄咄逼人的俄羅斯及好戰的美國總統的威脅。
（待續）
