Recently The Washing Post reported the following:
Melting ice may raise Greenland’s value. Trump’s fight
may be just the start.
Trump has said he wants the territory because of its
strategic location. Maps show how a melting Arctic is affecting geopolitics.
18 Jan 2026 at 3:00 a.m. EST
By Ruby Mellen and John Muyskens
The Arctic is warming around four times faster than the rest
of the globe, exposing natural resources, opening up potential shipping routes
and prompting an increase in activity among military powers. The changing
landscape has created a region ripe for opportunity — and potential conflict —
factors that may play a role in President Donald Trump’s sudden quest to obtain
Greenland.
Though he has called climate change a “hoax,” part of the
value Trump has described in the Danish autonomous territory’s location is a
result of the environmental shifts.
“It’s partly the melting of sea ice making it more
attractive for the economic development that he’d pursue in Greenland,” said
Sherri Goodman, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and the former
deputy undersecretary of defense for environmental security.
Trump has said he wants the territory because of its
strategic location and untapped natural resources, including diamonds, lithium
and copper.
The president announced tariffs Saturday on countries that
have sent troops to Greenland in recent days. Talks this week between the
foreign ministers of Greenland and Denmark, and U.S. officials ended in
“fundamental disagreement” according to Denmark’s top diplomat, Lars Lokke
Rasmussen.
The prospect of the United States using military force
against the NATO ally, as Trump has floated, could end the decades-old defense
pact. His bid for the territory is one of the most concrete examples of how
climate change is influencing geopolitics. As the northernmost parts of our
planet continue to warm, the effects could change the ways the international
community operates.
“The freeing of the Arctic from sea ice, at least
seasonally, will create an entirely new theater for economic and security
competition,” said Joseph Majkut, the director of the Energy Security and
Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“And while we’ve known that is going to be the case for some time, it seems
we’re at an inflection point.”
Arctic sea ice typically peaks in March, as ice forms and
spreads through the depth of winter, before beginning to melt to its lowest
extent, usually in September. Over approximately the past five decades, changes
in Arctic ice cover have revealed pathways for shipping and commerce, as parts
of the region stay ice-free for longer. There’s the northern sea route along
Russia’s coast, and the northwest passage along northern Canada. Analysts note
icebreakers, or vessels with the capability to chomp through thinning ice, have
begun passing through a “central route,” over the top of the Arctic.
In October, a Chinese container ship used the northern sea
route to shave about 20 days off its typical journey through the Suez Canal to
Europe.
If the region becomes ice-free in future summers, it could
reshape global trade. That reality is mere decades away, though exact
predictions depend on whom you ask and how quickly the planet warms.
A 2021 study in Nature modeled future open-water periods
based off different warming thresholds. It found that if the planet warms 2
degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1850-1900 average, that
period lengthens by 63 days, while if the planet warms 3.5 degrees (6.3 degrees
Fahrenheit) above the average, nearly the entire Arctic would have at least
three months of open water each year.
But it’s hard to predict the exact timeline of the rate of
melting, and either way, continued escalations or jockeying won’t really depend
on the pace of warming, Majkut said.
They also may be underestimating the hazards of a melting
Arctic, scientists warn. Regardless of when an ice-free summer comes, it will
remain an extreme environment.
“It’s going to be a long time before we’re arguing over
beachfront property or protecting people from crocodiles up there,” Majkut
said.
Without sea ice, communities could lose crucial protection,
said Zack Labe, a climate scientist who studies regional climate risks.
“Typically, the ice would act as a buffer for high wind and
waves,” he said, especially in the fall when the region experiences typhoons in
the Pacific that bring huge swells. That ice protects people against erosion
and flooding.
The melting arctic could produce unpredictable ocean
conditions, like changes in the wind and the waves. And if there is an
emergency, there are few accessible ports.
“It could become more hazardous for ships to go into these
areas rather than less,” said Labe.
While Trump is pursuing Greenland, he hasn’t publicly
acknowledged climate change’s role in what he perceives to be its value. A
staunch climate change denier, the president has moved to cut funding to many
climate initiatives including Arctic research.
But to some, that could be bad geopolitical strategy.
“Climate change is a significant national security risk,”
said Goodman. “The openings of sea lanes, the changing ice conditions, are
contributing to the intense geopolitical situations we’re experiencing.”
Translation
冰川融化可能會提升格陵蘭島的價值。特朗普的爭奪或許只是個開始
特朗普曾表示，他想要這片領土是因為其戰略位置。地圖顯示了北極冰川融化如何影響地緣政治。
北極的升溫速度大約是全球其他地區的四倍，這使得自然資源得以暴露，開闢了潛在的航運路線，並促使軍事強國的活動日益頻繁。不斷變化的地形造就了一個充滿機會 - 以及潛在衝突 - 的地區，這些因素可能在驅使特朗普總統突然尋求獲得格陵蘭島。
儘管特朗普稱氣候變遷是“騙局”，但他所描述的這片丹麥自治領土的價值，部分原因正是環境變遷的結果。
大西洋理事會傑出研究員、前國防部負責環境安全的副部長Sherri
Goodman說道:「部分原因是海冰融化使得格陵蘭島對特朗普想要在那裡推行的經濟發展更具吸引力」。
特朗普曾表示，他想要這片領土是因為其戰略位置和尚未開發的自然資源，包括鑽石、鋰和銅。
美國總統週六宣佈對近日派兵到格陵蘭島的國家徵收關稅。據丹麥外交大臣Lars
Lokke Rasmussen稱，格陵蘭和丹麥外長與美國官員本週的會談以「根本分歧」告終。
正如特朗普所暗示的那樣，美國可能對這個北約盟國動用武力，這可能會終結北約這已有數十年歷史的國防條約。他對這片領土的覬覦是氣候變遷如何影響地緣政治最具體的例子之一。隨著地球最北端持續變暖，其影響可能會改變國際社會的運作方式。
戰略與國際研究中心能源安全與氣候變遷計劃主任Joseph
Majkut表示:「北極海冰的消融，至少在季節性方面，將為經濟和安全競爭創造一個全新的舞台」; 「雖然我們早就知道這種情況會發生，但現在看來，我們正處於一個轉捩點」。
北極海冰通常在3月達到峰值，冰層在隆冬時節形成並持續擴展，之後開始融化，通常在9月達到最低點。在過去大約50年中，北極冰蓋的變化為航運和貿易開闢了新的通道，因為該地區部分區域的無冰期延長了，例如沿著俄羅斯海岸的北方航道和沿著加拿大北部的西北航道。分析家指出，破冰船，或那些能夠破開逐漸變薄冰層的船隻，已經開始沿著北極上空的「中央航線」航行。
10月份，一艘中國貨櫃船利用北方海路，比通常經由蘇伊士運河前往歐洲的航程節省了約20天。
如果該地區未來夏季完全無冰，可能會重塑全球貿易格局。這種情況距離我們只有幾十年的時間，但具體預測取決於你問的是誰以及地球暖化的速度。
2021年發表在《自然》雜誌上的一項研究基於不同的升溫閾值，模擬了未來無冰期。研究發現，如果地球溫度比1850-1900年的平均水平升高2攝氏度（3.6華氏度），無冰期將延長63天；而如果地球溫度比平均水平升高3.5攝氏度（6.3華氏度），幾乎整個北極每年至少會有三個月的無冰期。
但Majkut表示，冰川融化的具體速度難以預測，而且無論如何，持續的衝突升級或爭奪實際上並不取決於全球暖化的速度。
科學家警告說，他們可能低估了北極冰川融化的危害。無論何時迎來無冰的夏季，北極仍將是一個極具挑戰的環境。
Majkut特說： “我們還有很長時間才會爭論那裡的海灘房產，或者保護在那裡的人免遭鱷魚襲擊。”
研究區域氣候風險的氣候科學家Zack
Labe表示，如果沒有海冰，社區可能會失去至關重要的保護。
他說：「通常情況下，冰層可以緩衝強風和巨浪」;尤其是在秋季，太平洋颱風會帶來巨浪。冰層可以保護人們免受侵蝕和洪水的侵襲。
北極冰川融化可能會導致難以預測的海洋狀況，例如風向和海浪的變化。如果發生緊急情況，可用的港口寥寥無幾。
Labe說: 「船舶進入這些區域的風險可能會增加，而不是降低」。
儘管特朗普對格陵蘭島虎視眈眈，但他並未公開承認氣候變遷在他所認為的格陵蘭島價值中所扮演的角色。作為一位堅定的氣候變遷否認者，這位總統已經著手削減許多氣候倡議的資金, 包括北極研究。
但對某些人來說，這可能是一項糟糕的地緣政治策略。
Goodman說: 「氣候變遷是一項重大的國家安全風險」; 「海上航道的開通和冰情的變化，加劇了我們目前所面臨的地緣政治緊張局勢」。
So, the Arctic is warming and exposing natural
resources, opening up potential shipping routes and prompting an increase in
activity among military powers. While Trump is pursuing Greenland,
he hasn’t publicly acknowledged climate change’s role in what he perceives to
be its value. As a staunch climate change denier, the president has even cut
funding to many climate initiatives including Arctic research. Apparently, the
openings of sea lanes and the changing ice conditions are contributing to the
intense geopolitical situations.
