2026年6月17日 星期三

中國藥物研發崛起令美國感到壓力(1/2)

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

China’s Rise in Drug Development Looms Over U.S. (1/2)

Clinical trials in China are getting attention at an international oncology gathering in Chicago. China’s surging biotechnology industry is fueling alarm that U.S. dominance in the field is waning.

The NYT - By Rebecca Robbins and Gina Kolata

May 30, 2026

Updated 11:21 a.m. ET

For decades, an annual gathering of oncologists has featured drug trials that were run mainly at American and European hospitals.

But at this year’s meeting, which is being held in Chicago this weekend, the signs are everywhere of China’s ascendance as a powerhouse in drug development — and of the threat that many believe it poses to American biotechnology.

The clearest sign: In what appears to be a first, one of the conference’s five coveted headliners will be a presentation of a clinical trial conducted only in China.

That milestone at the meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, or ASCO, reflects the dizzying growth of China’s biotechnology sector. In just a few years, it has transformed from a sleepy industry into a juggernaut rapidly inventing and testing cutting-edge medicines.

“This tells us that the Chinese biotech industry has arrived,” said Dr. Otis Brawley, a professor at Johns Hopkins who has attended the ASCO meeting every year since 1989.

But a growing contingent of U.S. officials, executives and doctors worry that the shift in drug innovation to China poses dangerous risks for research, American patients and biotech workers. They raise concerns about losing control over new medicines and about ceding America’s longstanding dominance in the field.

With Chinese companies churning out patents, papers in medical journals and new clinical trials, U.S. biotech start-ups say they are struggling to keep up and are facing deep disadvantages.

“I think the concerns are valid and very real,” said Dr. Robert Califf, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration. “The U.S. is being seriously threatened.”

As tensions between Washington and Beijing have escalated, Democrats and Republicans have sounded the alarm about America’s reliance on China for generic drugs and raw materials.

Taking particular aim at China, President Trump signed legislation that barred government agencies from contracting with certain foreign biotech service providers in adversarial countries. China’s surge into cutting-edge drug development introduces a new dimension of risk, critics say.

There is another worry. Will drugs work as well in American patients as they do in Chinese patients?

For reasons that researchers do not fully understand, Asian patients with lung cancer tend to live longer and respond better to immunotherapies than people of other ethnicities, according to some studies.

Yet China has a very high rate of smoking, and former smokers tend to fare worse when they get lung cancer. Further complicating the picture is differences in treatment — the cancer drugs typically used in China are often not the same as in the United States.

“In general, things look better in China,” said Dr. Peter Marks, who was a longtime F.D.A. official before resigning last year. “It’s a fraught area right now. I think many of us have real concerns.”

Dr. Marks, who has since joined Eli Lilly as an executive overseeing its work on infectious diseases, stressed that he was not speaking for Lilly.

On the other side of the debate are those who warn that throttling competition from China would deprive Americans of new medicines. Ultimately, they say, the best data, no matter where it comes from, should win out.

In clinical trials, “patients either do well or they don’t, at the end of the day,” said Bob Duggan, a co-chief executive of Summit Therapeutics, based in Miami.

Summit bought the rights to the experimental drug from China, ivonescimab, that will get top billing at ASCO. The company is testing the drug in separate studies in American patients, and is seeking to bring it to market in the United States and other parts of the world. The Chinese company that invented the drug, Akeso Biopharma, already sells it in China.

(to be continued)

Translation

中國藥物研發崛起令美國感到壓力(1/2

在芝加哥舉行的國際腫瘤學大會上,中國的臨床試驗備受關注。中國蓬勃發展的生物技術產業引發了人們的擔憂,即美國在該領域的主導地位正在減弱

幾十年來,一年一度的腫瘤學家大會一直的特色是以在美國和歐洲醫院進行的藥物試驗為主。

但在今年於芝加哥舉行的會議上,處處都反映著中國作為藥物研發強國的崛起 - 以及許多人認為它是對美國生物技術的威脅。

最明顯的跡像是:本次大會五大重頭戲之一,將首次展示一項完全在中國進行的臨床試驗。

中國在美國臨床腫瘤學會(ASCO)年會上取得的這一里程碑式成就,反映了它的生物技術產業的驚人成長。短短幾年內,中國生技產業就從一個沉寂的產業蛻變為一個快速研發和測試尖端藥物的巨頭。

1989年以來每年都參加ASCO年會的約翰霍普金斯大學教授Otis Brawley博士說道:「這顯示中國生物技術產業已經崛起」。

然而,越來越多的美國官員、企業高層和醫生擔心,藥物創新向中國的轉移會對研究、美國患者和生物技術從業人員帶來危險的風險。他們擔憂會失去對新藥的控制權,並放讓出美國在該領域長期以來的主導地位。

隨著中國企業不斷申請專利、在醫學期刊上發表論文並進行新的臨床試驗,美國生技新創公司表示,他們難以跟上步伐,面臨嚴重的不利局面。

美國食品藥物管理局前局長Robert Califf博士說:“我認為這些擔憂是合理且非常現實的”,“美國正面臨嚴重的威脅。”

隨著華盛頓和北京之間的緊張局勢升級,民主黨和共和黨都對美國依賴中國提供仿製藥和原料發出警告。

特朗普總統尤其針對中國,簽署了一項法案,禁止政府機構與敵對國家的某些外國生物技術服務提供者去簽訂合約。批評人士稱,中國在尖端藥物研發領域的崛起帶來了風險的新層面。

還有另一個令人擔憂的問題:藥物對美國患者的療效是否與對中國患者有一樣好的療效?

一些研究表明,因一些研究人員尚未完全了解的原因,亞裔肺癌患者的存活期往往比其他種族患者更長,對免疫療法的反應也更好。

然而,中國的吸煙率非常高,而曾經吸煙的人罹患肺癌之後的情况往往更差。治療方案的差異進一步加劇了問題的複雜性 - 中國通用的抗癌藥物常常與美國通用的藥物不同。

曾長期擔任美國食品藥物管理局(FDA),並已去年辭職的Peter Marks博士說: 「總的來說,中國的情況看起來更好」; 「目前這是一個充滿爭議的領域。我認為我們有很多人都對此深感擔憂」。

Marks博士目前已加入Eli Lilly公司,擔任傳染病業務主管。他強調,他的發言並不代表Eli Lilly公司的立場。

另一方面,也有人警告說,限制來自中國的競爭將使美國人無法獲得新藥。他們認為,最終,無論數據來自何處,都應該以最佳數據為準。

總部位於邁阿密的Summit Therapeutics公司聯合首席執行官Bob Duggan表示,在臨床試驗中,“最終結果要么是患者療效顯著,要么是療效不佳。”

Summit公司從中國購得了實驗性藥物ivonescimab的專利權,該藥物將在ASCO年會上成為焦點。該公司正在美國患者中進行該藥物的獨立研究,並尋求將其推向美國及世界其他市場。該藥物的中國研發公司 - Akeso Biopharma已在中國銷售該藥物。

(待續)

2026年6月16日 星期二

AI Model Mythos: Companies Using It Describe It as Having "Game-Changing Potential"

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

AIモデル ミュトス 利用企業ゲームチェンジ起こす能力”

202653015:42

生成AI・人工知能

性能が非常に高くサイバー攻撃への悪用も懸念されるAIモデル、「クロード・ミュトス」の提供を受けたアメリカの企業がNHKのインタビューに応じ、その性能について「ゲームチェンジを起こす能力だ」と証言しました。そのうえで、「防御側の手にあり、攻撃側の手に渡っていない今この瞬間が重要だ」として悪用される前に対策が必要だと訴えました。

アメリカの新興AI企業、アンソロピックが開発したAIモデル「ミュトス」は、ソフトウエアのぜい弱性を発見する能力が極めて高いとされ、会社はサイバー攻撃に悪用されるおそれもあるとして公開を見送った一方、先月からIT大手や金融機関などおよそ50の企業や組織に提供してサイバー攻撃に備えるプロジェクトを始めています。

このプロジェクトに参加して「ミュトス」の提供を受けたアメリカ企業「モジラ」でウェブブラウザーの技術責任者を務めるボビー・ホーリー氏が今月下旬、NHKのインタビューに応じました。

この中でホーリー氏は、「ミュトス」の性能について、「1つの欠陥を見つけるために動ける一流の研究者は限られている一方で、AIなら数百、あるいは数千もの分析を並行して実行できる。これはセキュリティーの世界において、ゲームチェンジを起こす能力だ」と述べ、衝撃を受けたと証言しました。

また、ホーリー氏は、「ミュトス」の活用などによってこの会社が4月にウェブブラウザーのぜい弱性を修正した件数は平均的な1か月間の修正件数のおよそ20倍に増加したと明らかにしました。

そのうえで、「今これらの最先端の能力は防御側の手にある。攻撃側の手に渡っていない今この瞬間を活用し、私たち全員が依存しているインターネットのインフラを強化することが極めて重要だ」と述べ、悪用される前に対策が必要だと訴えました。

Translation

AI Model Mythos: Companies Using It Describe It as Having "Game-Changing Potential"

May 30, 2026, 15:42

Generative AI/Artificial Intelligence

An American company that received the AI ​​model "Claude Mythos," which boasted extremely high performance and raised concerns about its potential misuse in cyberattacks, gave an interview to NHK, testifying that its performance "has the potential to change the game." Furthermore, they emphasized that " at this very moment, the crucial thing is that it's in the hands of the defenders and not yet in the hands of the attackers,” appealing for countermeasures before being misused.

The AI ​​model "Mythos," developed by the American startup AI company Anthropic, was said to have an extremely high ability to detect software vulnerabilities. While the company withheld its public release due to concerns about its potential misuse in cyberattacks, it began a project last month to provide it to approximately 50 companies and organizations, including major IT companies and financial institutions, to prepare for cyberattacks.

Bobby Hawley, the Chief Technology Officer for web browsers at Mozilla as an American company that received "Mythos" as part of this project, gave an interview to NHK late this month.

In his remarks, Mr. Hawley described the capabilities of "Mythos," stated that "While only a limited number of top-tier researchers can work to find a single software vulnerability, AI can perform hundreds, or even thousands, of analyses in parallel. This is a game-changing capability in the world of security," and testified that he was shocked by this.

Mr. Hawley also revealed that, thanks to the use of "Mythos," the company's number of web browser vulnerabilities fixed in April increased to approximately 20 times the average number of fixes in a single month.

On top of that he said, "These cutting-edge capabilities are now in the hands of the defenders. It is crucial to made use of the present moment to strengthen the internet infrastructure on which we all depend on, before they fall into the hands of attackers”, urging that countermeasures were needed before someone used it with an ill intention.

So, an American company’s AI model "Claude Mythos," which is said to have extremely high performance, could be a game changer. Apparently, it is crucial that this AI model will not go into the hands of someone who may use it with ill intent.

2026年6月15日 星期一

咖哩店如何被捲入日本的移民管制行動(2/2)

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

How Curry Shops Got Caught in Japan’s Immigration Crackdown (2/2)

Under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, new visa rules are forcing some foreign business owners, who have put down roots in Japan, to leave.

The NYT - By Javier C. Hernández and Kiuko Notoya - Reporting from Shimotsuke, Japan

May 30, 2026

Updated 8:36 a.m. ET

(continue)

Japanese activists are pushing Ms. Takaichi’s administration to reconsider the changes. A petition has gathered more than 60,000 signatures.

Manish Kumar, an Indian restaurant owner, went public this month with his criticism of the rules. He spoke in an emotional video about living in Japan for 30 years, studying Japanese and raising his children in the country.

“They haven’t done anything wrong,” he said of his children. “I think it’s cruel to suddenly be told: ‘The rules have changed. You must go back.’”

The video prompted intense backlash, with some commentators accusing Mr. Kumar of exploiting the system by staying in Japan for so long.

Ms. Takaichi’s administration says the new rules have been a success. There are now an average of 70 applications per month for business manager visas, compared with 1,700 under the old system, a 96 percent drop.

Kimi Onoda, the minister who oversees economic security and policies on foreigners, said at a recent news conference that the changes had helped dispel concerns that the visas “might be abused as a means of immigration.”

The abrupt shift in policy has been tough for many restaurant workers, who have to pack up their lives in about a month.

Mr. Dharmapriya recalled his visit to an immigration office in April, when he learned that his visa renewal application had been rejected because he did not hire an additional employee. He was so devastated that it took him seven hours to drive back home — it usually takes two.

He said he was saddened by the perception among some Japanese that immigrants are a source of problems. “We don’t cost anyone money, we pay our taxes, we pay our bills,” he said.

In early May, Mr. Dharmapriya held a farewell buffet for his customers, serving dishes like red rice and dal curry. He was expecting about 20 people, but more than 70 attended, bringing Japanese sweets and other gifts.

He will soon return to his hometown in Sri Lanka. He has not yet told his family why he is leaving.

“If I have the chance,” he said, “I would come back to Japan tomorrow if I could.”

Translation

咖哩店如何被捲入日本的移民政管制行動(2/2

在首相高市早苗的領導下,新的簽證規則迫使一些在日本紮根的外國經營企業的人離開

(繼續)

日本活動人士正在敦促高市早苗政府重新考慮這些變更。一份請願書已收集到超過6萬個簽名。

印度餐廳老闆Manish Kumar本月公開批評了這些規定。他在一段充滿感情的影片中講述了自己在日本生活了30年,學習日語,並在日本撫養孩子的經歷。

他談到自己的孩子時說道:“他們沒有做錯任何事”; “我覺得突然被告知‘規則變了,你必須回去’,這太殘酷了。”

這段影片引發了強烈的反彈,一些評論家指責Mr. Kumar生利用制度漏洞在日本滯留這麼久。

高市政府表示,新規取得了成功。現在,商務經理簽證的月均申請量為70份,而舊制度下為1700份,下降了96%

負責經濟安全和外國人政策的大臣小野田紀美(Kimi Onoda)在最近的新聞發布會上表示,這些變化有助於消除人們對簽證「可能被濫用為移民手段」的擔憂。

政策的突然轉變給許多餐飲業員工帶來了沉重打擊,他們不得不在一個月左右的時間內收拾行李離開。

Dharmapriya先生回憶起四月份去移民局的經歷,當時他得知自己的簽證續約申請被拒,原因是他沒有額外僱用一名員工。他情緒低落,開車回家花了七個小時 - 通常只需要兩個小時。

他說,一些日本人認為移民是麻煩的根源,這讓他感到難過。 他說:「我們不對任何人造成負担,我們按時納稅,支付自己的賬單」。

五月初,Dharmapriya先生為他的顧客舉辦了一場告別自助餐,供應紅米飯和扁豆咖哩等菜餚。他原本預計會有大約20人參加,結果來了70多人,他們帶來了日本甜點和其他禮物。

他即將返回斯里蘭卡的家鄉。他還沒有告訴家人他離開日本的原因。

他說:“如果有機會”,“可以的話我明天就想回到日本。”

So, Japan is scrutinizing foreigners who live in the country on so-called business manager visas. Recently, a wave of nationalist sentiment has swept the country with some activists calling for even stricter controls as part of a “Japan First” movement. The administration says the new rules have been a success as applications per month for business manager visas have dropped  96 percent. Apparently, while the changes may help dispel concerns that the visas “might be abused as a means of immigration” , the fact is that Japan's population is decreasing.

2026年6月14日 星期日

咖哩店如何被捲入日本的移民管制行動(1/2)

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

How Curry Shops Got Caught in Japan’s Immigration Crackdown (1/2)

Under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, new visa rules are forcing some foreign business owners, who have put down roots in Japan, to leave.

The NYT - By Javier C. Hernández and Kiuko Notoya - Reporting from Shimotsuke, Japan

May 30, 2026

Updated 8:36 a.m. ET

For three years, Mahendra Dharmapriya, a Sri Lankan restaurateur, filled the streets of his neighborhood in rural Japan with the smells of his homeland: creamy lentils, fish curry, egg hoppers and black tea with ginger.

But on a recent Saturday, Mr. Dharmapriya cooked the last meal at Daiya Ceylon, his Sri Lankan curry shop in the Japanese town of Shimotsuke, about 66 miles north of Tokyo, and shut its doors. He was forced to close the restaurant because he could not satisfy new visa rules meant to restrict the flow of foreigners into Japan. He plans to return to Sri Lanka this week.

“I felt so alone,” Mr. Dharmapriya, 40, who moved to Japan in 2015, said in a recent interview at his restaurant, where he was handing out unopened bags of spices and cassava chips to friends. “I have no hope for the future right now.”

Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, won office last year on a promise to more strictly regulate immigration and tourism. Now her government is trying to deliver, scrutinizing the roughly 47,000 foreigners like Mr. Dharmapriya who live in the country on so-called business manager visas.

Japan has long been cautious about immigration; foreigners make up only about 3 percent of the population. Some experts argue that Japan needs to allow more immigrants to deal with labor shortages and offset its rapidly declining population. But a wave of nationalist sentiment has swept the country recently, with some activists calling for even stricter controls as part of a “Japan First” movement.

Conservatives say that foreigners are exploiting Japan’s visa rules to stay in the country indefinitely. The government has responded by making it harder to obtain business manager visas, requiring applicants to have $188,000 in capital, up from $31,000 previously, and to employ at least one full-time staff member.

The change has left many foreign restaurant owners in limbo. For decades, workers from India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, China, Vietnam, Thailand and other countries have relied on business manager visas, setting up small restaurants in Japanese cities and rural areas that serve curry, fried rice, noodles and other favorites.

Chan Ka Yee, who managed a branch of San Mai San, a Hong Kong-style congee chain, in Tokyo, closed her restaurant last week after more than five years because she said she could not meet the new visa requirements. She plans to return to Hong Kong this summer.

On her final day, customers brought flowers and snapped photos of Ms. Chan as she made pork congee, waffles and milk tea. She thanked them and waved goodbye.

The next morning, she wrote on social media, “My eyes are incredibly swollen from crying so much last night.”

“I can’t believe it’s over,” she said. “I wanted to stay there forever.”

Chie Taniguchi, 50, a regular at Ms. Chan’s restaurant, called the new visa requirements “sloppy politics.”

“Now it will become impossible for Japanese people to discover new flavors and food cultures,” she said.

(to be continued)

Translation

咖哩店如何被捲入日本的移民管制行動(1/2

在首相高市早苗的領導下,新的簽證規則迫使一些在日本紮根的外國經營企業的人離開

三年來,斯里蘭卡餐廳老闆Mahendra Dharmapriya 將家鄉的香氣瀰漫在日本鄉村的街道上:奶油扁豆、魚咖哩、雞蛋餅和薑茶。

但就在不久前的一個週六,Dharmapriya先生在他位於日本下野市(東京以北約66英里)的斯里蘭卡咖哩店“Daiya Ceylon”烹製了最後一餐,然後關上了店門。由於無法滿足旨在限制外國人入境日本的新簽證規定,他被迫關閉了餐廳。他計劃本週返回斯里蘭卡。

40歲的Dharmapriya先生說: 「我感到非常孤獨」; 「我現在對未來沒有任何希望」。他於2015年移居日本。最近,他在自己的餐廳接受採訪時,正將未開封的香料和木薯脆片分發給朋友們。

日本首相高市早苗去年上任時承諾將更嚴格地監管移民和旅遊業。如今,她的政府正努力兌現承諾,對像Dharmapriya先生這樣持所謂「商務經理簽證」在日本居住的約4.7萬名外國人進行嚴格審查。

日本長期以來對移民問題持謹慎態度;外國人僅佔日本人口的3%左右。一些專家認為,日本需要允許更多移民入境,以應對勞動力短缺和人口快速下降的問題。但近來,一股民族主義情緒席捲日本,一些活動人士呼籲加強管控,並發起「日本優先」運動。

保守派人士稱,外國人正在利用日本的簽證政策無限期地留在日本。政府的回應是提高了商務經理簽證的申請門檻,要求申請人擁有18.8萬美元的註冊資本(先前為3.1萬美元),並且至少僱用一名全職員工。

這項變化令許多外國餐館老闆陷入困境。幾十年來,來自印度、尼泊爾、斯里蘭卡、中國、越南、泰國等國的務工人員一直依靠商務經理簽證在日本的城市和鄉村地區開設小餐館,供應咖哩、炒飯、麵條和其他美食。

Chan Ka Yee在東京經營一家港式粥品連鎖店「三米三」(San Mai San)的分店,上週,由於無法滿足新的簽證要求,她在經營五年多後關閉了這家餐廳。她計劃今年夏天返回香港。

在她工作的最後一天,顧客們帶著鮮花,拍下了陳女士製作豬肉粥、華夫餅和奶茶的照片。她向顧客道謝並揮手道別。

第二天早上,她在社交媒體上寫道:“昨晚哭得太厲害,眼睛十分腫。”

她說:“真不敢相信一切都結束了”,“我真想永遠留在那裡。”

50歲的Chie Taniguchi是陳女士餐廳的常客,她稱新的簽證要求是「糟糕的政治操作」。

她說:「現在日本人將很難發現新的口味和飲食文化了」。

(待續)

2026年6月13日 星期六

豬肉價格暴跌揭示中國經濟的哪些問題(2/2)

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

What Plunging Pork Prices Say About China’s Economy (2/2)

A key measure of inflation in China, they hit a 16-year low, driven by anemic consumer spending and an oversupply of hogs.

The NYT - By Catie Edmondson - Reporting from Seoul - Li You contributed research.

May 28, 2026, 12:00 a.m. ET

(continue)

Dabeinong, another pork giant, sold more pork this year than last year but still reported a decline in profitability, citing “market conditions and fluctuations in hog prices.”

The downturn is a stark reversal from the soaring prices after the 2019 swine fever epidemic. In an attempt to lower prices and promote agricultural self-reliance — a priority championed by China’s leader, Xi Jinping — the government encouraged the construction of massive, multistory pig farms.

But now, farmers find themselves with too many hogs and not enough demand in a country that consumes half of the world’s pork.

In China, the meat is a staple in everyday meals and in dishes served at celebratory events or fancy dinners. Because it is so frequently consumed, pork is especially susceptible to the weaknesses of an economy gripped by stubborn youth unemployment, a shaky property market and a strained pension system.

Diners at restaurants have been spending less money per meal than just a few years ago, according to Canyin88, a Chinese website that collects data on the restaurant industry. Even the lavish banquets and business dinners once held by government officials have been reined in. Some local governments have barred civil servants from dining in groups of more than three, after several reports of excessive drinking at official banquets.

In a symbolic effort to reassure markets, Beijing has repeatedly bought meat for its national strategic pork reserve, an emergency government-run stockpile stored in warehouses across the country. In 2019, when pork prices skyrocketed, the government tapped those reserves to help ease grocery costs.

Beijing has also prodded local governments to buy more pork, because prices have fallen beyond the “warning zone for excessive price drops.”

And last month, during a pair of high-level meetings, including one led by Mr. Xi, officials stressed the importance of addressing “the profound shifts currently taking place in the supply-demand dynamics” of the pork industry.

The authorities have already urged farmers to reduce the pork entering the market by culling breeding sows. Regulators have also set stricter weight standards for each hog, effectively limiting the volume of meat available for sale. At the same time, the government has scaled back the subsidized loans it once offered to large-scale pig farms seeking to expand.

Those efforts, Ms. Liu said, could help stabilize prices. But without a stronger recovery in consumer demand, she didn’t expect them to rebound significantly.

“There is little to do from the demand side,” Ms. Liu said of further government interventions. “You cannot order other enterprises to purchase more pork.”

Translation

豬肉價格暴跌揭示中國經濟的哪些問題(2/2

作為衡量中國通膨的關鍵指標,豬肉價格跌至16年來的最低點,主要原因是消費支出疲軟和生豬供應過剩

(繼續)

另一家豬肉巨頭Dabeinong今年的豬肉銷量高於去年,但盈利能力仍然下降,該公司將原因歸咎於“市場狀況和生豬價格波動”。

此次價格下跌與2019年非洲豬瘟疫情後豬肉價格飆漲形成了鮮明對比。為了降低價格並促進農業自給自足 - 這是中國領導人習近平倡議的優先事項 - 政府鼓勵建造大型多層養豬場。

但如今,在這個豬肉消費量佔全球一半的國家,養殖戶們卻面臨生豬過剩而需求不足的困境。

在中國,豬肉是日常飲食的必需品,也是慶祝活動或盛大晚宴上常見的菜餚。由於消費如此頻繁,豬肉尤其容易受到經濟疲軟的影響,而中國經濟正飽受青年失業率居高不下、房地產市場動盪以及養老金體系捉襟見肘等問題的困擾。

根據收集餐飲業數據的中國網站「食音88」顯示,如今顧客在餐廳用餐的平均消費額比幾年前有所下降。就連政府官員曾經舉辦的奢華宴會和商務晚宴也受到了限制。此前,一些地方政府在官方宴會上多次出現過度飲酒的報道後,禁止公務員三人以上聚餐。

為了象徵地安撫市場,北京方面多次增購豬肉,充實其國家戰略豬肉儲備 - 這是政府運營的緊急儲備物資,儲存在全國各地的倉庫中。 2019年,豬肉價格飆升,政府動用那些儲備以緩解食品價格上漲的壓力。

由於豬肉價格已跌破“價格暴跌預警區”,北京方面也敦促地方政府增加豬肉採購量。

上個月,在包括習近平主席主持的一次會議在內的兩場高級別會議上,官員們強調了應對豬肉行業「當前供需動態的深刻變化」的重要性。

相關部門已敦促養殖戶透過淘汰繁殖母豬來減少進入市場的豬肉數量。監管機構也制定了更嚴格的生豬稱重量標準,有效限制了可供銷售的豬肉數量。同時,政府也縮減了先前向尋求擴張的大型豬場提供的補貼貸款。

Liu女士表示,這些措施可能有助於穩定價格。但如果沒有更強勁的消費需求復甦,她預計價格不會出現顯著反彈。

Liu女士在談到政府進一步幹預時表示: “從需求方面來說,能做的並不多。你不能命令其他企業購買更多豬肉。”

              So, China’s pork price decrease is more than an agricultural problem, the decline is an ominous sign for the economy. The pork industry is just another casualty of China’s economic slowdown. The property market slump is one of the reasons that is dragging down spending. Apparent, China’s economic slowdown will continue for quite a while.

2026年6月12日 星期五

豬肉價格暴跌揭示中國經濟的哪些問題(1/2)

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

What Plunging Pork Prices Say About China’s Economy (1/2)

A key measure of inflation in China, they hit a 16-year low, driven by anemic consumer spending and an oversupply of hogs.

The NYT - By Catie Edmondson - Reporting from Seoul -  Li You contributed research.

May 28, 2026, 12:00 a.m. ET

Sun Haoyu, a hog farmer in Dalian, in northern China’s Liaoning Province, first noticed pork prices beginning to tumble late last year.

With 3,000 hogs to care for, Mr. Sun said, he had “no choice but to tough it out,” relying entirely on loans and borrowed money to keep his operation afloat. But prices kept plummeting, and last month they hit a 16-year low. Now, across his region, many small farms are on the brink of collapse.

“Many hog farmers can no longer hold out,” Mr. Sun said in an interview. “After all that backbreaking work raising hogs, we can barely afford the feed anymore.”

China’s plunging pork prices are more than an agricultural problem. In a country where the commodity is treated as a bellwether of inflation, the decline is an ominous sign for the economy.

Not long ago, pork prices were soaring after an epidemic of swine fever devastated the nation’s hogs. That prompted Beijing to ramp up production, creating a glut just as Chinese consumers were looking to save rather than spend.

The pork industry is another casualty of China’s economic slowdown. The property market is in a yearslong slump, dragging down spending, including at restaurants, a big driver of pork sales. Construction activity has also weakened, reducing demand for pork, long a staple for workers on building sites, according to a report from Nomura, the Japanese bank.

“The construction site workers and then dining out are the two cohorts that we see have a higher pork consumption,” Hannah Liu, a China economist at Nomura, said in an interview. “When we see a collapse from these two cohorts, we definitely see demand crater.”

China has endured years of deflation across much of the economy, and pork prices are down 39 percent over the last four years, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. That deflationary trend began to reverse only in recent months, when rising energy costs from the war in Iran pushed up prices.

While the government has sought to boost major pork producers, offering them heavily subsidized bank loans and credit to expand, smaller farmers like Mr. Sun have received far less assistance.

Even with government support, the industry’s biggest players are struggling. Wens Foodstuff Group, one of China’s biggest hog producers, saw profits fall 43 percent last year. The company said prices for its pigs in April fell about 38 percent from a year earlier.

(to be continued)

Translation

豬肉價格暴跌揭示中國經濟的哪些問題(1/2

作為衡量中國通漲的關鍵指標,豬肉價格跌至16年來的最低點,主要原因是消費支出疲軟和生豬供應過剩

來自中國北部遼寧省大連市的養豬戶Sun Haoyu,去年年底首次注意到豬肉價格開始暴跌。

Sun先生說,他要養3,000頭生豬,別無選擇,只能咬牙堅持” ,完全依靠貸款和借來的錢來維持生計。但價格持續下跌,上個月跌至16年來的最低點。現在,在他所在的地區,許多小型養豬場都瀕臨倒閉。

Sun先生在接受採訪時說: “很多養豬戶已經撐不下去了” “養豬這麼辛苦,我們現在連飼料都快買不起了。”

中國豬肉價格暴跌不只是農業問題。在這個將豬肉價格視為通貨膨脹風向標的國家,豬肉價格的下跌對經濟來說是一個不祥之兆。

不久前,一場非洲豬瘟疫情重創了中國的生豬養殖業,導致豬肉價格飆升。這促使北京方面加大產量,造成了豬肉過剩,而此時中國消費者正傾向儲蓄而非消費。

豬肉產業是中國經濟放緩的另一個受害者。房地產市場持續低迷多年,拖累了包括餐飲在內的消費支出,而餐飲業是豬肉銷售的重要驅動力。根據日本野村證券的報告顯示,建築活動也已減弱,導致對豬肉的需求下降,而豬肉長期以來一直是建築工地工人的主要食物來源。

野村證券中國經濟學家Hannah Liu在接受採訪時表示:“建築工地工人和外出就餐者是豬肉消費量較高的兩個群體。一旦這兩個群體的消費量下降,我們確實看到需求大幅下降。”

中國經濟多年來一直處於通貨緊縮狀態,根據中國國家統計局數據顯示,過去四年豬肉價格下跌了39%。直到最近幾個月,隨著伊朗戰爭導致能源成本上漲,豬肉價格才開始回升,通貨趨勢才有逆轉。

儘管政府一直致力於扶持大型豬肉生產商,為其提供高額補貼的銀行貸款和信貸以擴大生產規模,但像Sun先生這樣的小農戶得到的幫助卻少得多。

即使有政府的支持,產業巨頭們也舉步維艱。中國最大的生豬生產商之一Wens食品集團去年的利潤下降了43%。該公司表示,4月生豬價格比去年下跌了約38%

(待續)

2026年6月11日 星期四

Totally Farmed Eels to Begin Online Trial Sales Tomorrow

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

Totally farmed eels to begin online trial sales (Source: NHK)

完全養殖ウナギ あすからオンラインで試験販売開始

202652816:19

水産業

流通大手のイオンは、卵からふ化させて育てたいわゆる「完全養殖」のウナギを29日から試験的に販売すると発表しました。完全養殖のウナギを一般向けに販売するのは初めてだということで、安定供給につながるかが注目されます。

イオンは28日九州地方の水産会社が完全養殖で育てた500尾あまりのウナギを、29日からオンラインで試験的に販売すると発表しました。

価格は1尾あたり5000円ほどで、完全養殖のウナギの販売は、世界で初めてだとしています。

国内で流通するウナギは、ほとんどが海や川で捕獲された天然の稚魚を育てて養殖したもので、国や企業が人工的に育てたウナギが産んだ卵をふ化させる完全養殖の技術開発を進めています。

水産庁の試算では、1尾あたりの生産コストは10年前の2016年度の20分の1程度にあたる1800円あまりに下がったものの、依然、通常の養殖に比べて3倍以上高いことが課題になっています。

イオンの土谷美津子副社長は「将来的に完全養殖のウナギが普通になることが重要だ。本格的な販売ができるよう取り組み、時代に合った買いやすい価格で提供できるようになればいいと思う」と話していました。

ウナギの完全養殖をめぐってはこのほかにも食品大手の東洋水産や近畿大学などでも研究が進められていて、絶滅のおそれが指摘される二ホンウナギの安定供給につながるかが注目されます。

Translation

Totally Farmed Eels to Begin Online Trial Sales Tomorrow

May 28, 2026, 4:19 PM

Fisheries

Aeon, a major retailer, announced that starting on the 29th it would begin trial sales of totally farmed eels from egg to hatching and raising. This was the first time wholly farmed eels would be sold to the general public, and attention was focused on whether this could lead to a stable supply.

Aeon announced on the 28th that starting from the 29th, it would begin trial online sales of over 500 eels, raised using fully farmed methods by a Kyushu-based fisheries company,

The price was approximately 5,000 yen per eel, and this was said to be the world's first sale of totally farmed eels.

Most eels distributed in Japan were raised from wild juvenile eels caught in the sea or rivers. The government and companies were developing fully farmed eel technology, which involved hatching eggs laid by farm-raised eels.

According to estimates by the Fisheries Agency, the production cost per eel had fallen to just over 1,800 yen, about one-twentieth of what it was 10 years ago in fiscal year 2016. However, it remained more than three times higher than traditionally farmed eels, and that was a challenge.

Mitsuko Tsuchiya (土谷美津子), Vice President of Aeon, said, "It is important that wholly farmed eels become commonplace in the future. We are working to enable full-scale sales and hope to be able to offer them at an affordable price that is in line with the times."

In addition to this, research on the completely farmed eels was also being conducted by major food company Toyo Suisan and Kinki University, among others. Attention was focused on whether this would lead to a stable supply of the Japanese eel that was considered being endangered.

              So, Aeon announced that starting on the 29th it would begin trial sales of completely farmed eels. This was the first time that completely farmed eels being sold to the general public. As Japanese eel is considered as endangered, completely farmed eel is becoming more important.

Note:

1. There are a few reasons why wholly farm-raised eels are still so expensive in Japan:

a. Eels are notoriously difficult to breed in captivity: Unlike salmon or tilapia, eels have a very complicated life cycle. For decades, scientists did not even know exactly where Japanese eels spawned in the ocean. Producing viable eggs, hatching larvae, and raising them to adulthood required decades of research.

b. High mortality rates: Young eel larvae are delicate and require specialized diets and carefully controlled water conditions. Many do not survive, making production inefficient and expensive.

c. Specialized feed and labor: The Japanese Fisheries Research and Education Agency has stated that feed costs and labor costs are major contributors to the high price. Researchers have reduced production costs dramatically, but they remain much higher than for conventional eel farming.  (ChatGPT)