特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準？ (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Trump’s tariffs were supposed to strengthen the dollar. So why is it the weakest it’s been in three years? (1/2)

John Towfighi, CNN

Wed, June 25, 2025 at 6:34 a.m. PDT·5 min read

The US dollar is having its worst year in decades. While stocks have recovered from their April lows and demand for bonds has been relatively steady, the dollar has continued a precipitous decline.

The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against six major foreign currencies, is down nearly 10% this year and on Wednesday hovered around its lowest level since 2022.

Wall Street had expected the dollar to strengthen under President Donald Trump’s second term. His policies of tax cuts were expected to spur economic growth and tariffs were expected to reduce demand for foreign imports, boosting the greenback’s value.

Yet the dollar had broadly weakened this year as Trump’s tariffs — and his back-and-forth decisions on implementing them, pausing them, raising them and lowering them — have injected uncertainty into markets and clouded the outlook for the US economy.

While tariffs can technically boost the dollar, they also have created an uncertainty about US policy that has “dominated” markets this year, driving the dollar lower, Barry Eichengreen, professor of economics and political science at UC Berkeley, told CNN.

“Investors don’t like uncertainty,” Eichengreen said, noting the negative impact on the dollar. While uncertainty around the US economy has increased, the European economy — though facing its own headwinds from tariffs — has emerged as relatively more stable.

“The consensus out there is that US growth is slowing owing to uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs and other things,” Eichengreen said. “The weakness of the dollar may also reflect new doubts about the currency’s safe haven status.”

Lingering concerns

A weaker dollar could support American exporters by making their goods relatively more affordable in the global market. It could also improve revenues for businesses with overseas operations and make visiting the United States relatively more affordable for international tourists.

However, the dollar is weakening at a time when there are heightened concerns about how the White House’s “erratic” policies and the massive US debt load might impact demand for US assets, Eichengreen said.

Republican lawmakers hope to deliver Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” to his desk by July 4. There have already been concerns about foreign investors demanding higher yields to hold US debt due to concerns about the deficit.

Foreign investors buying US debt want a strong dollar to get the most bang for their buck when converting their holdings into their own currency. As the dollar weakens, it eats into foreign investors’ return on their investments.

If there is waning demand for the dollar, Treasury yields could rise, increasing the cost of borrowing for both the US government and consumers.

(to be continued)

Translation

特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準？ (1/2)

美元正經歷數十年來最糟糕的一年。儘管股市已從4月的低點回升，債券需求也相對穩定，但美元卻持續大幅下跌。

衡量美元兌六種主要外幣強弱的美元指數今年已下跌近10%，週三徘徊在2022年以來的最低水準附近。

華爾街曾預計，在特朗普總統的第二任期內，美元將走強。他的減稅政策預計將刺激經濟成長，而關稅預計將減少對外國進口商品的需求，從而推高美元價值。

然而，由於特朗普的關稅政策 - 以及他在實施、暫停、提高和降低關稅方面的反覆決策 - 給市場注入了不確定性，並給美國經濟前景蒙上了陰影，美元今年已普遍走弱。

加州大學柏克萊分校經濟學和政治學教授 Barry Eichengreen 告訴 CNN，雖然關稅在技術上可以提振美元，但也造成了對美國政策的不確定性，這種不確定性在今年「主導」了市場，導緻美元走低。

Eichengreen說道: 「投資人不喜歡不確定性」，並指出了不確定性對美元的負面影響。儘管美國經濟的不確定性增加，但歐洲經濟 - 儘管也面臨關稅帶來的阻力 - 卻相對穩定。

Eichengreen說: 「外界普遍認為，由於特朗普關稅和其他因素的不確定性，美國經濟成長正在放緩」; 「美元的疲軟可能也反映出人們對其避險地位的新疑慮」。

揮之不去的擔憂

美元走弱可能會支撐美國出口商，使其產品在全球市場上相對更實惠。美元走弱還可以提高海外業務企業的收入，並使國際遊客赴美旅遊的費用相對更實惠。

然而，Eichengreen表示，美元走弱正值人們日益擔憂白宮「反覆無常」的政策和美國巨額債務負擔可能影響對美國資產之需求。

共和黨議員希望在7月4日前將特朗普提出的「一項大而美法案」提交給他。由於對赤字的顧慮，已經引發了担心外國投資者會要求持有美國債券可獲得更高的收益率。

購買美國債券的外國投資者希望美元走強，以便在將其持有的債券兌換成本國貨幣時獲得最大收益。隨著美元走弱，它會侵蝕外國投資者的投資回報。

如果對美元的需求減弱，美國公債殖利率可能會上升，從而增加美國政府和消費者的借貸成本。

（待續）

Asking generative AI could come with hidden environmental costs

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

生成ＡＩへの質問、隠れた環境コストがかかる可能性も

2025.06.24 Tue posted at 19:34 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） 仕事のメールに返信したり、結婚の誓いを作成したりと、生成ＡＩ（人工知能）は多くの人々の生活において頼りになる副操縦士だ。だが、ＡＩが問題を解決するたびに隠れた環境コストが積み重なっていることを示す研究結果が増えている。

ＡＩに出す指示（プロンプト）は「トークンＩＤ」と呼ばれる数字の集まりに分解され、石炭火力発電所や天然ガス発電所によって稼働する巨大なデータセンター（フットボールの競技場より大きなものもある）に送られる。そこでは、多数の大型コンピューターが何十回もの高速計算を行い、答えを作り出す。

引用されることの多い米電力研究所（ＥＰＲＩ）の推計によれば、そうしたプロセス全体を完了するには通常のグーグル検索よりも最大１０倍のエネルギーが必要になる可能性がある。

それでは、ＡＩに与える質問の一つひとつはどれほどの損害をもたらすのだろうか。これを調べるためドイツの研究者は、１４の大規模言語モデル（ＬＬＭ）を使ったＡＩシステムに対して、自由回答式と多肢選択式の質問の両方で試験を行った。その結果、複雑な質問は、簡潔な回答の質問と比較して最大６倍の二酸化炭素（ＣＯ２）の排出につながった。

さらに、より推論能力の高い「より賢い」なＬＬＭは同じ質問に答える際、より単純なシステムよりも最大５０倍多くの二酸化炭素を排出したという。

「フロンティアズ・イン・コミュニケーション」に掲載された論文の主筆者で、ミュンヘン応用科学大学の博士課程の学生、マキシミリアン・ダウナー氏は「これは、エネルギー消費とモデル性能の精度の間にトレードオフ（一方を立てれば他方が立たなくなる）関係があることを示している」と述べた。

通常は、こうしたより賢いエネルギー集約的なＬＬＭは、より小規模で簡潔なモデルよりも、トークンＩＤの処理に使われる「パラメーター」が数百億個多くなる。

「脳内の神経回路網のようなものだと考えてほしい。神経の接続が多いほど、質問に答えるための思考能力が高まる」（ダウナー氏）

 

二酸化炭素排出を減らすには

ダウナー氏によれば、複雑な質問には、多くのＡＩモデルが長文での説明を提供するよう訓練されていることもあり、より多くのエネルギーが必要となるという。ＡＩのチャットボットに代数の問題を解いてもらうと、答えを見つけるまでの手順を逐一説明してくれるかもしれない。

「ＡＩは特にユーザーが『お願いします』や『ありがとう』と丁寧に話す場合、丁寧な対応に多くのエネルギーを費やす。しかし、これは返答をさらに長くし、それぞれの単語を生成するのにさらに多くのエネルギーを消費する」（ダウナー氏）

こうしたことから、ダウナー氏は、ユーザーがＡＩとコミュニケーションを取る際には、より率直であることをユーザーに勧めている。希望する回答の長さを１～２文におさえるか、説明は全く不要だと伝えるのがいいという。

ＡＩ企業「ハギング・フェイス」のサーシャ・ルッチオーニ氏は、最も重要なのはダウナー氏の研究が、すべてのＡＩモデルが同じように作られているわけではないことを強調している点だと述べた。二酸化炭素の排出量を削減したいと考えているユーザーは、どのタスクにどのモデルを選択するのかをより慎重に検討するといい。

複雑なコーディングの問題を日々解いているソフトウェア技師なら、コーディングに適したＡＩが必須かもしれない。しかし、宿題を手伝ってほしいと思う普通の高校生にとって、強力なＡＩに頼るのは原子力発電で稼働するデジタル電卓を使うようなものだ。

ダウナー氏は、同じＡＩ企業でも提供されるモデルによって推論能力が異なる場合があるので、自身の必要性に最適なものを調べるべきだと指摘した。

ルッチオーニ氏は、可能であれば、簡単なタスクを実行する際には、インターネットの百科事典や携帯電話の電卓といった基本的な情報源を活用することを勧めている。

Translation

Asking generative AI could come with hidden environmental costs

 (CNN) Whether it's answering work emails or writing wedding vows, generative AI was the trusty co-pilot in many people's lives. But a growing body of research showed that every time when AI solved a problem, hidden environmental costs piled up.

Our instructions (prompts) gave to AI were broken down into a string of numbers called "token IDs" and sent to gigantic data centers (some bigger than a football field) powered by coal-fired or natural gas plants. There, dozens of big computers run dozens of rapid calculations to produce the answer.

According to a commonly cited estimate from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), completing that whole process might need up to 10 times more energy than a typical Google search.

So, how much damage could each question asked of AI would be caused? To find out, German researchers tested the AI systems that used 14 large language models (LLMs) with both open-ended and multiple-choice questions. They found that complex questions led to up to six times more carbon dioxide （ＣＯ２）emissions than questions with short answers.

What's more, "smarter" LLMs with better reasoning abilities emitted up to 50 times more carbon dioxide than simpler systems when answering the same question.

Maximilian Downer, a doctoral student at Munich University of Applied Sciences and leading author of a paper published in Frontiers in Communication said "This shows that there is a trade-off (if you pick one, you cannot pick the other) between energy consumption and the accuracy of the model performance."

Typically, those smarter, more energy-intensive LLMs had tens of billions more "parameters" to process token IDs than smaller, simpler models.

"Think of it like a neural network in your brain. The more neural connections you have, the more thinking power you have to answer a question," (Downer said)

 

How to reduce carbon dioxide emissions

Downer said complex questions required more energy, in part because many AI models were trained to provide lengthy explanations. When an AI chatbot was asked to solve an algebra problem, it might walk you through the steps it took to find the answer.

"AI spends a lot of energy being polite, especially when users say 'please' and 'thank you.'  Moreover, this made the reply even longer and consumed more energy to generate each word." (Downer said)

For this reason, Downer encouraged users to be more forthright when communicating with AI, to say limiting the length of the desired answer to one or two sentences, or to say you didn't need any explanations on that at all.

Sasha Luccioni of AI company Hugging Face said that most importantly, Downer's research had highlighted that not all AI models were created equal. Users who wanted to reduce their carbon footprint should be more thoughtful about which model they would choose for which type of task.

If you're a software engineer engaged in solving complex coding problems every day, an AI that's good at coding might be essential. But for an average high school student looking for help with their homework, to rely on a powerful AI would be like using a digital calculator powered by nuclear energy.

Downer noted that models offered by the same AI company might have different inference capabilities, so you should research on which one could best suit your needs.

Luccioni recommended that when performing simple tasks, to use basic information sources, such as an online encyclopedia or a calculator on your phone whenever possible.

              So, AI requires more energy to deal with complex questions. It is also noted that not all AI models are created equal. Users who want to reduce their carbon footprint should be more thoughtful about which model they should choose with regard to the type of task on hand in order to save energy.

Note:

1. A large language model (LLM) is a language model trained with self-supervised machine learning on a vast amount of text, designed for natural language processing tasks, especially language generation. The largest and most capable LLMs are generative pretrained transformers (GPTs), which are largely used in generative chatbots such as ChatGPT, Gemini or Claude. LLMs can be fine-tuned for specific tasks or guided by prompt engineering. These models acquire predictive power regarding syntax, semantics, and ontologies inherent in human language corpora, but they also inherit inaccuracies and biases present in the data they are trained in. (Wikipedia)

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（2/2）

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran (2/2)

The Associated Press - Julia Frankel and Sam Mednick

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 5:48 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(continue)

Using AI and human intelligence to select targets

To analyze information gathered from various sources, Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence, or AI, technology, said an intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target. He said AI was used to help Israelis quickly sift through troves of data they had obtained. That effort began last October according to the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media; it was one month before Netanyahu said he had ordered the attack plans.

An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year uncovered that the Israeli military uses U.S.-made AI models in war to sift through intelligence and intercept communications to learn the movements of its enemies. It's been used in the wars with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The intelligence officer involved in identifying the possible targets said options were first put into various groups, such as leadership, military, civilian and infrastructure. Targets were chosen if they were determined to be a threat to Israel, such as being deeply associated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard — a paramilitary force that controls Iran’s ballistic missiles.

The officer was tasked with putting together a list of Iranian generals, including details on where they worked and spent their free time.

Among the high-level military officials killed since Friday's attack were Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces.

In addition to AI, the Mossad relied on spies to identify top nuclear scientists and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to one security official. At least eight members of the Guard, including the head of its missile program, were killed in a single Israeli strike on an underground bunker.

Targeting Iranian vehicles

Another facet of the attack was to strike Iranian vehicles used to transport and launch missiles.

Shine said the strategy was similar to a Ukrainian operation earlier this month in Russia. In that operation, nearly a third of Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet was destroyed or damaged with cheaply made drones snuck into Russian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.

In an interview with Iranian state-run television, the country's police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, said “several vehicles carrying mini-drones and some tactical drones have been discovered.” He added: “a number of traitors are trying to engage the country’s air defense by flying some mini-drones.”

 How far back does this go?

The Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear program over the years, including cyberattacks and the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. But it rarely acknowledges such operations.

In the 2000s, Iranian centrifuges used for enriching uranium were destroyed by the so-called Stuxnet computer virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation.

In 2018, Israel stole an archive of Iranian nuclear research that included tens of thousands of pages of records, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired general and former military intelligence researcher who now directs the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

In July 2024, Israel killed a senior leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, with a bomb in a bedroom of a government guesthouse in Tehran.

Israel's blistering attack last week on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure didn’t come out of nowhere, said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank.

It was the result of “Israeli intelligence working extensively for years in Iran and establishing a very strong robust presence,” he said.

Translation

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（2/2）

（繼續）

利用人工智能和人類智慧選擇目標

一位參與選擇目標人物和地點的情報官員表示，為了分析從各種來源收集的信息，以色列使用了最新的人工智能（AI）技術。他表示，人工智能被用來幫助以色列人快速篩選他們所獲得的大量數據。據這位官員透露，這項工作始於去年10月。由於未獲授權接受媒體採訪，這位官員不願透露姓名，這是內塔尼亞胡宣布下令實施攻擊計劃之前一個月。

美聯社今年稍早的一項調查發現，以色列軍方在戰爭中使用美國製造的人工智能模型來篩選情報並攔截通信，以了解敵人的動向。它曾在與加薩走廊的哈馬斯以及黎巴嫩真主黨的戰爭中被使用過。

參與確定潛在目標的情報官員表示，目標首先被分為不同類別，例如領導層、軍隊、平民和基礎設施。如果目標被確定為對以色列構成威脅，例如與伊朗革命衛隊（一支控制伊朗彈道飛彈的準軍事部隊）關係密切，就會被選中。

該官員的任務是整理一份伊朗將軍名單，包括他們工作地點和空閒時間的詳細資料。

自周五襲擊事件以來，遇難的高級軍官包括伊朗革命衛隊負責人 Hossein Salami 將軍和伊朗武裝部隊總參謀長 Mohammed Bagheri 將軍。

據一位安全官員稱，除了人工智能之外，摩薩德還依靠間諜來識別伊朗革命衛隊的高級核科學家和成員。以色列對一座地下掩體的攻擊中，至少有八名伊朗革命衛隊成員喪生，其中包括其飛彈計劃的負責人。

 

瞄準伊朗車輛

這次攻擊的另一個目的是打擊用於運輸和發射飛彈的伊朗車輛。

Shine 表示，這項策略與本月稍早烏克蘭在俄羅斯的行動類似。據烏克蘭官員稱，在那次行動中，莫斯科近三分之一的戰略轟炸機機隊被偷偷運入俄羅斯領土的廉價無人機摧毀或損壞。

在接受伊朗國家電視台採訪時，伊朗警察局長 Ahmadreza Radan 將軍表示： “已發現數輛載有微型無人機和一些戰術無人機的車輛” 。他還補充道： “一些叛徒正試圖通過驅動一些微型無人機來打擊該國的防空系統。”

這行動要追溯到什麼時候？

一般相信摩薩德多年來對伊朗核計畫發動了多次秘密攻擊，包括網路攻擊和殺害伊朗核科學家。但該組織很少承認此類行動。

進入21世紀，伊朗用於濃縮鈾的離心機被所謂的「震網」（Stuxnet）電腦病毒摧毀，據信該病毒是由以色列和美國共同開發的。

退休將軍、前軍事情報研究員、現任耶路撒冷戰略與安全研究所所長的 Yossi Kuperwasser 表示，2018年，以色列竊取了一份包含數萬頁記錄的伊朗核子研究檔案。

2024年7月，以色列在德黑蘭一家政府賓館的臥室裡用炸彈炸死了哈馬斯高級領導人 Ismail Haniye。

以色列退休準將現在是以色列國防與安全論壇智庫的負責人 Amir Avivi 將軍表示, 以色列上週對伊朗核和軍事核心結構發動的猛烈攻擊並非憑空而來。

這是「以色列情報部門多年來在伊朗廣泛開展工作並建立起堅實的立足點」的結果。

So, Israel shocked Iran when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision. Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate was greatly diminished. Apparent, Israel’s intelligent network is working very effectively.

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（1/2）

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran (1/2)

The Associated Press - Julia Frankel and Sam Mednick

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 5:48 a.m. PDT·6 min read

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel stunned and hobbled Iran last week when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.

Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate — already weakened by past Israeli strikes — was greatly diminished.

This account is based on conversations with 10 current and former Israeli intelligence and military officials, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss clandestine operations.

It was not possible to independently verify some of their claims. But the former head of research at Israel's spy agency, the Mossad, confirmed the basic contours of the attack, saying she had inside knowledge of how it was planned and executed.

“This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran's nuclear program,” said Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director who is now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.

Israel’s element of surprise was enhanced by Iranian officials’ apparent assumption that Israel wouldn’t attack while talks over its rapidly advancing nuclear program were ongoing with the U.S.

A sixth round of talks had been planned for last Sunday in Oman, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu activated “Operation Rising Lion” on Friday – after his country first notified President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu has for years said neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program was vital for Israel’s security, and Israel had previously taken steps to set back Iran's ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade. But Netanyahu said a more aggressive attack proved necessary, as Iran kept advancing its enrichment program despite U.S. diplomatic efforts and warnings from U.N. watchdogs.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction. Iran's political leaders say their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though it was the only country without the bomb to enrich uranium close to weapons-grade levels.

Smuggling drones into Iran

The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack. This person spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.

The attack built off knowledge Israel gained during a wave of airstrikes last October, which “highlighted the weakness of Iranian air defenses,” said Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

To further diminish Iranian air defenses and missile systems at the start of last week's attack, Mossad agents had smuggled precision weapons into Iran that were prepositioned to strike from close range, according to two current security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the missions. Those weapons included small, armed drones, which agents snuck into the country in vehicles, according to the former intelligence officer.

Mossad agents stationed weapons close to Iranian surface-to-air missile sites, Shine said. The agency works with a mix of people, both locals and Israelis, she said.

(to be continued)

Translation

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（1/2）

耶路撒冷（美聯社） - 上週，以色列完成了一項醞釀多年的情報和軍事行動，精確打擊了伊朗高層目標，震懾並牽制了伊朗。

在間諜和人工智能的指導下，以色列軍方在夜間發動了由走私到伊朗的戰機和武裝無人機組成的猛烈攻擊，迅速摧毀了伊朗的許多防空和飛彈系統。憑藉更大的飛行自由，以色列轟炸了伊朗關鍵的核設施，並殺死了高級將領和科學家。幾個小時後，當伊朗做出回應時，其報復能力 - 因已被以色列的襲擊所削弱 - 大大減少。

本報告是基於與10名現任和前任以色列情報和軍事官員的對話，其中一些要求匿名，以討論秘密行動。

部分說法無法獨立核實。但以色列情報機構摩薩德 (Mossad) 前研究主管證實了這次攻擊的基本輪廓，並表示她掌握了攻擊計劃和執行的內部資訊。

前摩薩德研究主管、現任國家安全研究所分析師 Sima Shine 說道: 「這次襲擊是摩薩德多年來針對伊朗核計劃努力的結晶」。

伊朗官員顯然認為，在以色列與美國就其快速推進的核子計劃進行談判期間，以色列不會發動攻擊，這增強了以色列的出其不意。

第六輪談判原定於上週日在阿曼舉行，但以色列總理內塔尼亞胡於週五啟動了 “崛起雄獅行動” - 此前以色列已率先通知了特朗普總統。

多年來，內塔尼亞胡一直表示，消除伊朗核計劃對以色列安全至關重要，以色列先前也曾採取措施，阻止伊朗將鈾濃縮至武器級。但內塔尼亞胡表示，鑑於伊朗不顧美國的外交努力和聯合國監督機構的警告，仍在繼續推進其鈾濃縮計劃，因此有必要採取更具侵略性的打擊。

伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊曾多次呼籲摧毀以色列。伊朗政治領袖聲稱，他們的核子計劃是用於和平目的，儘管伊朗是唯一一個國家沒有核武而去將鈾濃縮至接近武器級別。

將無人機走私到伊朗

 據一位知情的前情報官員稱，摩薩德和軍方至少合作了三年，為這次襲擊奠定了行動基礎。鑑於事態的敏感性，此人要求匿名。

國際危機組 的伊朗問題分析師 Naysan Rafati 表示，這次襲擊是基於以色列在去年10月空襲浪潮中獲得的訊息，這些空襲「凸顯了伊朗防空系統的薄弱」。

據兩位不願透露姓名的現任安全官員透露，為了在上週襲擊開始時進一步削弱伊朗的防空和導彈系統，摩薩德特工已將精確武器武器走私到伊朗，這些武器預先部署用於近距離打擊。前情報官員透露，這些武器包括小型武裝無人機，由特工用車輛偷偷帶入伊朗。

Shine 說，摩薩德特工在伊朗地對空飛彈發射場附近部署了武器。她還表示，該機構與當地人和以色列人都有合作。

（待續）

美國銀行稱，外國對美國國債的需求正在出現「裂痕」

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

'Cracks' are forming in foreign demand for US Treasury bonds, BofA says

Business Insider - Christine Ji

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 3:53 p.m. PDT·2 min read

Foreign buyers of US Treasurys have been shedding their holdings, raising the possibility of more future turbulence for US government bonds, Bank of America titled said.

In a report on Monday titled "Foreign UST Demand Shows Cracks," the bank said that foreign investors, often central banks, are purchasing fewer Treasurys.

Megan Swiber, rates strategist at Bank of America, wrote on Monday that US dollar asset holdings have declined over $60 billion since the beginning of April. Foreign participation in the most recent US 20-year Treasury auction was the lowest since July 2020.

"The foreign demand trajectory going forward is concerning, especially in light of more global investors looking to reduce US assets or increase hedge ratios," she wrote.

Specifically, custodial holdings, or US Treasurys that foreign central banks hold at the Federal Reserve, dropped by $17 billion in the last week and are down $48 billion from late March.

The Fed is also conducting fewer reverse repurchase agreements, which could point to lower demand for Treasurys among global central banks.

A reverse repurchase agreement allows institutions to lend cash overnight to the Fed in exchange for high-quality collateral, usually in the form of short-term US government bonds. Reverse repurchase agreement balances have declined $15 billion since late March, according to the bank.

As seen in the chart below, demand for Treasurys in Q1 of 2025 primarily came from broker-dealers and foreign investors, a trend that may now be reversing.

Decreased foreign demand is atypical in times of heightened economic uncertainty and a weak dollar. Usually, central banks buy up US government debt when the dollar falls versus rivals — which has been the case this year with the US dollar index down over 9%.

Additionally, historically low interest rates in other parts of the world have led foreign investors to jump into the US Treasury market in pursuit of higher yields, Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist said recently. As a result, foreign investors have accumulated record-high exposure to US government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years, meaning that any adjustments they make to their holdings will have an outsize impact on the bond market.

BofA said that it appears now that foreign investors are cutting back on their US Treasury investments, as deficit concerns and general growth worries stemming from tariffs and the tax bill hurt their appeal as safe-haven assets.

Translation

美國銀行稱，外國對美國國債的需求正在出現「裂痕」

美國銀行稱，外國買家一直在減持美國國債，這增加了美國政府公債未來可能出現更多動盪的可能性。

美國銀行在周一發布的一份題為《外國對美國國債的需求出現裂痕》的報告中表示，外國投資者（通常是各國央行）正在減少購買美國國債。

美國銀行利率策略師 Megan Swiber 週一寫道，自4月初以來，美元資產持有量已下降超過600億美元。外國投資者參與最近一次美國20年期公債拍賣的人數創下2020年7月以來的最低水準。

她寫道： “未來的外國需求走勢令人擔憂，尤其是在越來越多的全球投資者尋求減持美國資產或提高對沖比率的情況下。”

具體而言，外國央行在聯邦儲備系統持有的美國公債託管量（即託管持有量）在上週減少了170億美元，較3月底減少了480億美元。

聯邦儲備系統也在減少逆回購協議的執行，這可能顯示全球央行對美國公債的需求下降。

逆回購協議允許機構隔夜向聯邦儲備系統借出現金，以換取高品質的抵押品，通常是短期美國政府債券。據聯邦儲備系統稱，逆回購協議餘額自3月底以來已下降150億美元。

如下圖所示，2025年第一季美國公債需求主要來自經紀自營商和外國投資者，而這一趨勢目前可能正在逆轉。

在經濟不確定性加劇和美元疲軟時期，外國需求下降並不常見。通常情況下，各國央行會在美元兌其他貨幣下跌時買進美國公債 - 今年美元指數下跌超過9%就是這種情況。

此外，Apollo 首席經濟學家 Torsten Sløk 最近表示，世界其他地區的歷史低利率促使外國投資者湧入美國國債市場，以追求更高的收益率。因此，外國投資者對期限超過10年期的美國國債的持倉已達到創紀錄的高位，這意味著他們對持倉的任何調整都將對債券市場產生巨大影響。

美國銀行表示，目前看來，外國投資者正在削減對美國國債的投資，因為赤字擔憂以及關稅和稅收法案引發的普遍增長擔憂, 削弱了美國國債作為避險資產的吸引力。

              So, foreign buyers of US Treasurys have been shedding their holdings, raising the possibility of more future turbulence for US government bonds. Foreign participation in the most recent US 20-year Treasury auction is the lowest since July 2020. It seems that foreign investors are cutting back on their US Treasury investments due to factors such as deficit concerns and worries caused by tariffs and the tax bill.

The shipping industry is on the front line of the US-China trade war, and it's a serious blow to the US toy industry

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

米中貿易戦争の最前線、海運業界に生じる混乱　米玩具業界にも深刻な打撃

2025.06.17 Tue posted at 13:23 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） 米国が４月２日に世界の大半の国々に対する包括的な関税を発表したことで、世界中の物品の自由な流通を可能にする複雑なグローバルサプライチェーン（供給網）、特に製造品の９０％を輸送する海運業界には混乱が生じた。

大半の関税については別途９０日間停止されているにもかかわらず、企業幹部らは、関税が再び課される前提で事業を運営しなければならないと話す。

米国企業は貿易戦争の休戦中に商品の備蓄に努めている。需要に応えるため中国の工場をフル稼働させ、海運会社にはこの期間内に最大限の商品を納入するよう働きかけている。

「企業が前倒しで調達しようとするのは、ほんの数週間後がどうなるか分からないからだ」と、北京に拠点を置く中国欧盟商会のイェンス・エスケルンド会頭は述べた。「計画することが非常に難しくなり、非効率が生じている。結果的にはコスト増につながるだろう」

 

「ばく大な富の破壊」

オーシャンネットワークエクスプレスジャパンが所有する全長３０２メートルのワンモダン号には、衣類、家具、自動車部品など、主に中国製の製品が詰め込まれたコンテナが最大７０００個積まれている。行き先は米国だ。

米国との貿易摩擦にもかかわらず、船員たちは驚くほど冷静に見える。これは、海運業界の特徴となっている回復力の表れだ。近年、海運業界は新型コロナウイルス感染症のパンデミック（世界的大流行）、スエズ運河の封鎖、紅海におけるイエメンの反政府武装組織フーシによるミサイルの脅威など、数々の危機を乗り越えてきた。

米国側では、中国からの輸入に依存している企業の一部が経営難に陥っている。

「こうした企業の一部は衰退するだろう」と、シカゴに拠点を置く知育玩具企業ラーニング・リソーシズのリック・ウォルデンバーグ最高経営責任者（ＣＥＯ）は指摘する。「ばく大な富が破壊され、回復は不可能だと思う」

米国玩具協会によると、米国で販売される玩具の８０％近くが中国製であるため、玩具業界は特に深刻な打撃を受けている。

 

闘うことを選択

貿易戦争をめぐり、ウォルデンバーグ氏はトランプ政権を相手取った訴訟に勝訴したが、連邦地裁による関税差し止めの判断は、政府の上訴により現在執行停止となっている。

「もちろん、闘わざるを得なかった」「ノックアウトパンチは受けられない」（ウォルデンバーグ氏）

米国で５００人の従業員を擁するラーニング・リソーシズは現在、米中間の「メロドラマのような浮き沈み」を回避するため、玩具生産の一部を中国から積極的に移転させている。

一方で、貿易戦争の目標の一つとされる米国への生産拠点の移転は、「官僚の空想に過ぎない」と一蹴する。米国には現在、十分な生産能力がないからだ。

トランプ大統領はこれまで、関税が米国企業や消費者に与える影響を軽視している。４月３０日の閣議では、米国に到着するコンテナ船について「物資が山積みされているが、その多くは必要ないものだ」と評し、「子どもたちが手にする人形は３０体ではなく、２体になるだろう」「人形２体の値段は通常より数ドル高くなるかもしれない」と述べた。

ウォルデンバーグ氏は、小売店は確実に品切れを起こすとの見方を示す。

業界のトップらは、品不足に加え、あらゆる経済的負担が米国民に転嫁されることも明確に認識している。

Translation

The shipping industry is on the front line of the US-China trade war, and it's a serious blow to the US toy industry

(CNN) The US announced comprehensive tariffs on most countries on April 2 was disrupting the complex global supply chain that allowed goods to flow freely around the world, especially the shipping industry, which transported 90% of manufactured goods.

Despite the suspension of most tariffs for another 90 days, corporate executives said they had to operate their businesses on the assumption that tariffs would be imposed again.

US companies were stockpiling goods during the trade truce. They were running Chinese factories at full capacity to meet demand and encouraging shipping companies to deliver as much goods as possible during this period.

"Companies are trying to frontload purchases because they don't know what the next few weeks will bring," said Jens Eskelund, chairman of the Beijing-based China-European Union Chamber of Commerce. "It's making planning very difficult, and it's creating inefficiencies. It's going to lead to higher costs."

 

"Massive wealth destruction"

The 302-metre One Modern, owned by Ocean Network Express Japan, was carrying up to 7,000 containers packed with mostly Chinese-made goods, including clothing, furniture and auto parts. It's bound for the US.

Despite the trade tensions with the US, the crew seemed surprisingly calm, a sign of the resilience that had characterised the shipping industry. In recent years the industry had weathered a number of crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the blockade of the Suez Canal and the missile threats from Yemeni Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.

On the US side, some companies that relied on Chinese imports were struggling.

"Some of these companies will decline," said Rick Waldenberg, CEO of Chicago-based educational toy company Learning Resources. "A lot of wealth has been destroyed, and I don't think it will recover."

According to the American Toy Association, the toy industry had been hit particularly hard, as nearly 80% of toys sold in the U.S. were made in China.

To choose to fight

While Waldenberg won a lawsuit against the Trump administration over the trade war, the federal district court's decision to suspend the tariffs had been stayed due to an appeal by the government.

"Of course we have to fight”; "We can't take a knockout punch." (Waldenberg said)

Learning Resources that was employing 500 people in the U.S. was currently actively relocating some of its toy production out of China to avoid " melodrama like ups and downs" between the U.S. and China.

On the other hand, he dismissed outright the relocation of production bases to the U.S. which was one of the targets of the trade war, as "nothing more than a bureaucratic fantasy." The U.S. currently did not have enough production capacity.

President Trump had so far downplayed the impact of tariffs on U.S. companies and consumers. At the April 30 Cabinet meeting, he commented on container ships arriving in the US, saying, "There's a lot of stuff piled high, but a lot of it is stuff we don't need," and that "kids will get two dolls instead of 30," and that "two dolls might cost a few dollars more than normal."

Woldenberg said he expected retailers would run out of stock for sure.

Industry leaders clearly knew that in addition to the shortages, any economic burden would be passed on to the American people.

So, the comprehensive tariffs on most countries announced by the US on is disrupting the complex global supply chain that allows goods to flow freely, especially the shipping industry. Despite the suspension of most tariffs for another 90 days, US companies are stockpiling goods during the trade truce. Industry leaders know that the tariffs will cause shortages of goods, and that the consequential economic burden will be passed on to the American consumers.

Note:

1. Jens Eskelund is the President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. He has lived and worked in China for 25 years and is also the chief representative for Maersk in China. He is the Managing Director of Maersk China Ltd and a member of the DWARC External Experts Advisory Board. (Sider)

2. The term melodrama refers to a dramatic work that exaggerates plot and characters in order to appeal to the emotions. It may also refer to the genre which includes such works, or to language, behavior, or events which resemble them. It is also used in scholarly and historical musical contexts to refer to dramas of the 18th and 19th centuries in which orchestral music or song was used to accompany the action. (Wikipedia)

 

"North Korea to send 6,000 engineers to western Russia" - Russia, Shoigu

 Recently NHK New on-line reported the following:

“北朝鮮 ロシア西部に工兵6000人派遣へ” ロシア ショイグ氏

2025年6月17日 23時14分

ロシアのショイグ安全保障会議書記は17日、北朝鮮のキム・ジョンウン（金正恩）総書記がロシア西部クルスク州の地雷の除去や復興支援のため工兵6000人を派遣することを決めたと明らかにしました。

ロシア国営のタス通信などによりますと、ロシアの前の国防相で、現在は安全保障会議の書記を務めるショイグ氏は17日、プーチン大統領の指示で北朝鮮の首都ピョンヤンを訪問し、キム・ジョンウン総書記と会談しました。

ショイグ氏とキム総書記の会談は今月に入って4日に続き、2度目です。

会談のあと、ショイグ氏は記者団に対し、キム総書記が、ウクライナ軍の越境攻撃を受けたロシア西部クルスク州の復興のため、工兵を派遣すると表明したことを明らかにしました。

派遣されるのは、地雷の除去にあたる1000人と、道路や通信施設などのインフラの再建にあたる5000人の、合わせて6000人だとしています。

また、クルスク州に派遣され、ウクライナ軍との戦闘で死亡した北朝鮮兵士の記念碑を両国に建設する計画を進めるとしています。

ショイグ氏は北朝鮮の工兵がクルスク州に派遣されることについて「北朝鮮の国民とキム総書記がわが国、特にクルスク州に対して示してくれた兄弟のような支援だ」と述べ、プーチン大統領とキム総書記が「包括的戦略パートナーシップ条約」に署名して今月19日で1年となるのを前に両国の連携の強化を強調しました。

Translation

"North Korea to send 6,000 engineers to western Russia" - Russia, Shoigu

On the 17th, Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu revealed that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had decided to send 6,000 engineers to remove mines and assist in reconstruction in Kursk Oblast, western Russia.

According to Russian state-run TASS and other sources, Shoigu, Russia's former defense minister and current secretary of the Security Council, visited Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, on the 17th at the instruction of President Putin and met with Kim Jong Un.

This would be the second time Shoigu and Kim to meet this month, following their first meeting on the 4th.

After the meeting, Shoigu told reporters that Kim announced that engineers would be sent to help rebuild Kursk Oblast, western Russia, which was hit by a cross-border attack by the Ukrainian military.

A total of 6,000 troops would be sent, including 1,000 to remove landmines and 5,000 to rebuild infrastructure such as roads and communications facilities.

Also, in both countries the government will move forward with plans to build memorials for the North Korean soldiers who were sent to Kursk Oblast and died in fighting with Ukrainian forces.

Regarding the dispatch of North Korean engineers to Kursk Oblast, Shoigu said, "This is the brotherly support that the North Korean people and Chairman Kim have shown to our country, particularly to Kursk Oblast," and emphasized the strengthening of cooperation between the two countries ahead of the one-year anniversary of President Putin and Chairman Kim signing the “Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” that fell on the 19th of this month.

              So, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has decided to send 6,000 troops to Russia to rebuild infrastructure such as roads and communications facilities. Apparently, Kim is happy to have signed the Partnership Treaty with President Putin and to get the rewards that he wants.

Note:

In Russia Oblasts are constituent political entities in a federal union with representation in the Federation Council, and serve as a first-level administrative division. Each oblast features a state government holding authority over a defined geographic territory, with a state legislature, the Oblast Duma. The term oblast can be translated into English as "province" or "region", and there are currently 46 oblasts. (Wikipedia)