關稅的影響：特朗普的貿易實驗一年後（1/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

The Effects of Tariffs, One Year Into Trump’s Trade Experiment (1/2)

Five charts show the impact on the economy after a year of sweeping trade changes by the Trump administration.

By Ana Swanson - Ana Swanson covers international trade and reports from Washington.

Feb. 2, 2026

Updated 11:34 a.m. ET

Over the past year, President Trump carried out what was essentially a grand experiment with the U.S. economy, by raising tariffs to levels not seen in a century. It was an exercise that pitted Mr. Trump, a longtime proponent of tariffs, against business owners who paid the levies and mainstream economists who criticized the plan.

America imports trillions of dollars of foreign goods each year, and tariffs are a tax on those purchases. Over the past year, Mr. Trump raised average U.S. tariffs to about 17 percent, the highest level since 1932, in the wake of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Mr. Trump’s stated aim was to reinvigorate American industry and bring jobs back to the United States.

These new surcharges have had a significant impact. They have caused businesses to speed up, delay and cancel purchases, or find new countries to source products from. They have raised a significant amount of revenue for the government, much of it from American businesses. And they have caused the U.S. trade deficit to shrink and prices of American goods to rise. At the same time, they have not yet been the panacea for the factory sector that Mr. Trump had promised.

Here are some of the effects.

Skyrocketing revenue

One of the most tangible effects of Mr. Trump’s trade policy has been a drastic increase in the revenue the government takes in from tariffs. The United States collected an estimated $287 billion in customs duties, taxes and fees last year, nearly triple the amount in 2024.

This amount is still small compared with the more than $2 trillion earned annually from income taxes, but it gives the government a significant new source of money for its spending, whether that’s funding the military or Social Security, or paying interest on the U.S. debt.

There’s an important caveat, however. This money was paid to the government by so-called “importers of record,” most of which are American companies.

While the Trump administration has said that foreign firms will end up paying the tariffs, most economists believe that American businesses and consumers bear most of the burden.

A shrinking trade deficit

Mr. Trump has also sought to decrease the trade deficit, which is the gap between what the United States buys versus what it sells overseas. In recent months, he has succeeded. The trade deficit has fallen significantly, hitting its lowest level since 2009 in October, though it rebounded in November.

The president and his supporters see the trade deficit as a sign of economic weakness, though not all economists agree. While the trade deficit has fallen a lot in recent months, it had surged earlier in the year as Mr. Trump came into office and businesses rushed to bring goods into the country ahead of the tariffs. From January to November, the trade deficit is still up 4.1 percent from the previous year. The question now for economists is where the trade deficit will go from here.

(to be continued)

Translation

關稅的影響：特朗普的貿易實驗一年後（1/2）

五張圖表展示了特朗普政府推行全面貿易改革一年後對經濟的影響

過去一年，特朗普總統對美國經濟進行了一項堪稱「大實驗」的舉措，將關稅提高到百年未見的水平。這項舉措使長期以來支持關稅的特朗普與繳納關稅的企業擁有者, 以及批評該計劃的主流經濟學家之間產生了衝突。

美國每年進口數兆美元的外國商品，而關稅正是對這些商品徵收的一種稅。過去一年，特朗普先生將美國平均關稅提高至約17%，這是自1932年以來的最高水平，而1932年的關稅水平, 是1930年《斯穆特-霍利關稅法》(Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act) 頒佈之後出台。特朗普先生公開表示，他的目標是重振美國產業，並將就業機會帶回美國。

這些新的附加稅產生了顯著影響。它們迫使企業加快採購速度、延遲採購、取消採購，或尋找新的產品來源國。它們為政府帶來了可觀的收入，其中大部分來自美國企業。它們也導至美國貿易逆差縮小，美國商品價格上漲。同時，它們亦未像特朗普先生承諾那樣成為對製造業的靈丹妙藥。

以下是一些影響：

收入飆升

特朗普先生貿易政策最顯著的影響之一是政府從關稅中獲得的收入大幅增加。去年，美國徵收的關稅、稅金和費用估計為2,870億美元，幾乎是2024年金額的三倍。

這筆金額相比每年超過2兆美元的薪俸稅收入仍然很小，但它為政府提供了一筆可觀的新資金來源，用於各種支出，無論是軍事費用、社會保障，還是支付美國國債利息。

然而，需要注意的是，這筆錢是由所謂在「登記冊的進口商」支付給政府的，其中大部分是美國公司。

儘管特朗普政府聲稱最終將由外國公司承擔關稅，但大多數經濟學家認為，美國企業和消費者才是主要負擔。

貿易逆差縮小

特朗普先生也致力於縮小貿易逆差，也就是美國進口額與出口額之間的差額。近幾個月來，他取得了成功。貿易逆差顯著下降，10月份達到2009年以來的最低水平，儘管11月份有所反彈。

總統及其支持者將貿易逆差視為經濟疲軟的標誌，但並非所有經濟學家都認同這一觀點。儘管貿易逆差在近幾個月來大幅下降，但今年早些時候，隨著特朗普上任，企業爭相在關稅生效前將商品運入美國，貿易逆差曾大幅飆升。 1月至11月，貿易逆差仍較上年同期成長4.1%。現在經濟學家面臨的問題是，貿易逆差的未來走向是如何。

（待續）

巴拿馬廢除香港公司的運河港口營運合約 (2/2)

Recently Google News on-line picked up the following:

Panama voids Hong Kong-based firm's canal port contracts (2/2)

BBC - By Amy Walker and Suranjana Tewari, Asia business correspondent

31 Jan 2026

(continue)

In response, PPC said the new ruling lacks legal basis, and "jeopardises not only PPC and its contract, but also the well-being and stability of thousands of Panamanian families who depend directly and indirectly on port activity".

Its statement added that it had invested more than $1.8bn (£1.3bn) in infrastructure and technology since it began operating the ports in 1997.

Mulino said ports in the country will continue to operate without disruption despite the ruling.

APM Terminals Panama, a subsidiary of Danish shipping company Maersk, will temporarily manage the Balbao and Cristóbal sites.

The company told the BBC in a statement that it "aims to mitigate any risks that could impact essential services for regional and global trade".

On Friday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said that the country would take "all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies".

Hong Kong's government also said it firmly rejected the ruling.

The Panamanian court's decision could disrupt plans by CK Hutchison to sell its interests in ports worldwide to a consortium led by US investment firm BlackRock and shipping group MSC under a deal worth $22.8bn.

Both firms have been contacted for comment by the BBC.

The sale was widely seen as an attempt by CK Hutchison to reduce political risk in sensitive locations while raising money from valuable assets.

Trump had previously hailed the plans, which would place key assets under majority US ownership, while the Chinese government had criticised them for not being in the national interest.

Markets reacted quickly to the court decision.

CK Hutchison's shares fell 4.6% in Hong Kong trading, pushing down the Hang Seng Index down by more than 2% - a sign of both the company's importance to the market and growing investor concern about political risk.

Up to 14,000 ships use the 51-mile (82km) Panama Canal each year as a shortcut between the Atlantic and Pacific.

The waterway, which handles about 5% of global maritime trade volume, is operated by the Panama Canal Authority, an agency of the Panamanian government.

From October 2023 to September 2024, China accounted for 21.4% of the cargo volume transiting the canal, making it the second-largest user after the US.

Translation

巴拿馬廢除香港公司的運河港口營運合約(2/2)

（繼續）

 PPC 回應稱新裁決缺乏法律依據，「不僅危及 PPC 及其合同，也危及數千個直接或間接依賴港口活動的巴拿馬家庭的福祉和穩定」。

該公司在聲明中補充說，自 1997 年開始運營這些港口以來，已在基礎設施和技術方面投資超過 18 億美元（13 億英鎊）。

Mulino表示，儘管有此裁決，巴拿馬的港口仍將繼續正常運營，不會受到影響。

丹麥航運公司馬士基的子公司 APM Terminals Panama 將暫時管理Balbao港和Cristóbal港。

該公司在給 BBC 的聲明中表示，「這旨在降低任何可能影響區域和全球貿易基本服務的風險」。

週五，中國外交部發言人郭家琨表示，中國將採取「一切必要措施，堅決維護中國企業的合法權益」。

香港特區政府也表示堅決反對這項裁決。

巴拿馬法院的裁決可能會擾亂長江和記實業有限公司（CK Hutchison）將其在全球港口的權益出售給由美國投資公司貝萊德（BlackRock）和航運集團MSC牽頭的財團的計劃，該交易價值228億美元。

BBC已聯繫這兩家公司徵求評論。

此次出售被廣泛視為長江和記實業有限公司試圖降低敏感地區的政治風險，同時從其寶貴資產中籌集資金。

特朗普先前曾對該計劃表示讚賞，該計劃將使關鍵資產由美國控股，而中國政府則批評該計劃不符合其國家利益。

市場對法院的裁決迅速做出反應。

長江和記實業的股票在香港交易中下跌4.6%，拖累恆生指數下跌超過2%，這不僅顯示該公司對市場的重要性，也反映出投資人對政治風險日益增長的擔憂。

每年有多達14,000艘船舶使用全長82公里（51英里）的巴拿馬運河作為連接大西洋和太平洋的捷徑。

這條水道承擔著全球約5%的海運貿易量，由巴拿馬運河管理局運營，該機構是巴拿馬政府的下屬機構。

從2023年10月到2024年9月，中國佔巴拿馬運河貨運量的21.4%，是僅次於美國的第二大用戶。

So, after China interferes with a Hong Kong company the CK Hutchison’s decision to sell its interests in ports on the Panama Canal, Panama's Supreme Court annuls CK Hutchison’s contract signed years ago that allows this company to operate container ports. The Chinese government criticizes this court’s decision. Apparently, Beijing's tighter political control over Hong Kong in recent years and its potential involvements in the operation of private companies have changed how Hong Kong companies are perceived internationally: business transactions become more political.

巴拿馬廢除香港公司的運河港口營運合約（1/2）

Recently Google News on-line picked up the following:

Panama voids Hong Kong-based firm's canal port contracts (1/2)

BBC - By Amy Walker and Suranjana Tewari, Asia business correspondents

31 Jan 2026

Panama's Supreme Court has annulled contracts allowing a Hong Kong-based company to operate container ports on the Panama Canal.

The ruling comes a year after US President Donald Trump claimed China was "operating the Panama Canal" - the main shipping link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans - in his inaugural speech.

CK Hutchison Holding, through its subsidiary the Panama Ports Company (PPC), has operated two of the five ports since the 1990s. It had previously agreed to sell them to a group led by a US investment firm under a wider deal.

The court found that laws allowing the firm to operate the ports were "unconstitutional", but PPC said the ruling "lacks legal basis".

Trump has made repeated claims that the Central American canal is under Chinese control.

During his address last January, he said: "China is operating the Panama Canal and we didn't give it to China. We gave it to Panama and we're taking it back."

The following month, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also demanded that Panama make "immediate changes" to what he called the "influence and control" of China over the canal.

Panama has previously rejected the US government's claims and President Jose Raul Mulino has said the canal "is and will remain" in his country's hands.

There is no public evidence to suggest China exercises control over the canal, though Chinese companies have a significant presence there.

CK Hutchison, founded by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, is not owned by the Chinese government.

But Beijing's tighter political control over Hong Kong in recent years has changed how the company is viewed internationally. Its global assets - which include ports and logistics hubs - are now often seen through the lens of wider concerns about China's influence.

Against a backdrop of rivalry between the US and China over global trade routes, as well as the Trump administration's focus on US dominance over the western hemisphere, the ruling on Thursday is likely to be seen as a victory for Washington.

Panama's Supreme Court said in a statement published on its website that, after "extensive deliberation", it had found that laws that underpin a concession contract between the state and PPC at the ports of Balbao and Cristóbal were unconstitutional.

(to be continued)

Translation

巴拿馬廢除香港公司的運河港口營運合約（1/2）

巴拿馬最高法院宣佈，廢除了允許一家總部位於香港的公司在巴拿馬運河上經營貨櫃港口的合約。

這項裁決是在美國總統特朗普 - 在他的就職演說中 - 聲稱中國「操控巴拿馬運河」一年後作出的 - 這運河連接大西洋和太平洋的主要航運通道。

長江和記實業有限公司(CK Hutchison Holding)透過其子公司巴拿馬港口公司（PPC）自1990年代以來一直經營五個港口中的兩個。此前，該公司已同意根據一項更廣泛的交易，將這兩個港口出售給一個由美國投資公司主導的財團。

法院裁定，允許巴拿馬港口公司運營這些港口的法律“違憲”，但該公司表示，裁決“缺乏法律依據”。

特朗普曾多次聲稱中美洲運河受中國控制。

他在去年一月的一次演講中表示：“中國正在運營巴拿馬運河，我們沒有把它交給中國。我們把它交給了巴拿馬，現在我們要收回它。”

在之後的一個月，美國國務卿盧比奧也要求巴拿馬  “立即改變” 他所謂的中國對運河的 “影響和控制”。

巴拿馬先前已駁斥了美國政府的說法，總統Jose Raul Mulino也表示，運河「現在和將來」都掌握在巴拿馬手中。

雖然中國企業在巴拿馬有引人注目的存在，但目前尚無公開證據顯示中國對運河行使控制權。

長江和記實業有限公司是由香港億萬富翁李嘉誠創立，並非中國政府所有。

但近年來北京對香港加強的政治管控改變了國際社會對該公司的看法。這有限公的全球資產 - 包括港口和物流樞紐 - 如今常常被置於對中國影響力日益增長的擔憂的背景下進行審視。

在美中兩國圍繞全球貿易路線競爭，以及特朗普政府著力維護美國在西半球主導地位的背景下，週四的裁決很可能被視為華盛頓的勝利。

巴拿馬最高法院在其網站上發表聲明稱，經過“廣泛審議”，法院認定，國家與 PPC 簽訂有關Balbao港和Cristóbal港的特許經營合約所依據的法律是違憲。

（待續）

俄羅斯利用星鏈系統提升其攻擊無人機的飛行距離

Recently CNN.com reported the following:

Russia is using Starlink to make its killer drones fly farther

CNN- By Ivana Kottasová, Daria Tarasova-Markina

Updated Jan 29, 2026

Russia has been mounting Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite systems on its attack drones to strike deeper into Ukraine, extending their potential flight range to well inside NATO territory, analysts and Ukrainian officials have said.

Ukraine has collected evidence of “hundreds” of attacks by Russian drones equipped with Starlink terminals, Serhii Beskrestnov, a military tech expert and adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said on Thursday.

“(Attacks) not on military targets, but on peaceful rear and frontline cities. Including residential buildings. In fact, this is terrorism using modern peaceful communication technologies,” he said.

Adding Starlink allows Moscow to bypass Ukraine’s electronic defenses that disable drones by jamming GPS and radio signals.

Russia has previously got around these signal blockers by using drones controlled by fiber optic cables. But while these cannot be disabled electronically, their range is limited by the length of the cable.

Starlink-equipped drones have a longer range than radio and cable-guided drones and cannot be jammed. The superfast connection also makes it possible to control them in real-time from inside Russia, allowing them to be much more precise.

CNN has asked Starlink for comment, but received no answer. Under US sanctions, Starlink cannot be sold or used in Russia.

While other Russian drones and missiles can cover longer distances, they are a lot more expensive, larger and easier to detect and take down. A simpler drone equipped with a Starlink Mini, which costs between $250 and $500, can be much cheaper and as effective as the more advanced models that cost tens of thousands of dollars.

Beskrestnov, better known in the drone tech circles under his moniker Flash, shared a photograph of a BM-35 drone strike in Dnipro, saying that the Starlink-equipped drone can fly a distance of up to 500 kilometers (310 miles).

He said it was also likely that the deadly strike on a civilian train in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday was conducted with a Shahed drone equipped with a mesh radio modem or possibly a Starlink, given it was able to get through electronic defenses and was guided by its pilot to strike the middle of a moving train.

Earlier this month, Flash told the Ukrainian Public Broadcaster Suspilne that a swarm of Starlink-equipped Molniya drones was recently used to hit Ukrainian energy facilities in the Chernihiv region. The Molniya drones are very simple and cheap machines made with plywood, capable of flying dozens of miles.

He said that one in every three of the drones managed to hit its target because of the Starlink technology. “It is impossible to suppress (them) with electronic warfare. It can only be physically shot down if an anti-aircraft drone sees it and shoots it down,” he said.

He said on Thursday that more Starlink-equipped Molniya drones were used overnight near Pavlohrad some 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the front lines.

Bypassing jammers

Ukraine’s recently appointed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who was previously in charge of drone development and procurement as the minister for science, tech and digital transformation, said that Ukraine needs to respond “very quickly” to the Starlink development.

“The enemy is constantly improving its drones and attack tactics to achieve its goals. Every day, a new risk emerges,” he said, adding that Russia launched over 6,000 drones in the past month alone. That is slightly more than in December and November, but more than twice the number recorded at the same time last year.

Fedorov said on Thursday that the ministry has contacted SpaceX, Musk’s company that owns Starlink, with proposals on how to stop Russia from using the technology.

He said he was grateful to “SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and Elon Musk personally for their quick response and for starting to work on resolving the situation.

Ukraine has become heavily reliant on Starlink since the beginning the war. The system is used by the military to communicate and operate drones, by the government as well as many civilians, businesses and public institutions including hospitals and schools.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict monitor, said that based on the reported 500-kilometer range “most of Ukraine, all of Moldova, and parts of Poland, Romania, and Lithuania” are in range of the Starlink-equipped BM-35 drones if launched from Russia or occupied Ukraine.

Ukraine’s sanctions commissioner Vladyslav Vlasiuk said earlier this week that the growing use of Starlink by Russia shows that the sanctions pressure Ukraine’s allies put on Russia is “insufficient.”

CNN has previously reported on Russian troops bypassing the sanctions by buying Starlink systems in third countries and then using them along the frontlines. At that time, Starlink said that it would deactivate any terminal found to be used by a sanctioned or unauthorized party.

Musk himself did respond to criticism of his technology being used by Russia earlier this week when he was asked by Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski on X why he doesn’t “stop the Russians from using Starlinks to target Ukrainian cities.”

Musk responded by calling Sikorski a “drooling imbecile” and saying Starlink was “the backbone of Ukraine military communications.” He did not address the question of Russia using the system.

Translation

俄羅斯利用星鏈系統提升其攻擊無人機的飛行距離

分析家和烏克蘭官員表示，俄羅斯一直在攻擊無人機上安裝馬斯克的星鏈衛星系統，以更深入打擊烏克蘭境內目標，及將其潛在飛行範圍擴展至北約領土內部。

軍事技術專家兼烏克蘭國防部顧問Serhii Beskrestnov週四表示，烏克蘭已收集到「數百個」俄羅斯無人機使用星鏈終端發動攻擊的證據。

他說:「（攻擊）並非針對軍事目標，而是針對和平的後方和前線城市，包括居民樓。事實上，這是利用現代和平通訊技術實施恐怖主義」。

加裝星鏈系統使莫斯科能夠繞過烏克蘭的電子防禦系統，該系統透過幹擾GPS和無線電訊號來使無人機失效。

俄羅斯先前曾利用光纖控制的無人機繞過這些訊號屏蔽裝置。雖然這些無人機不受電子干擾而失效，但其飛行距離是受制於光纖長度。

配備星鏈系統的無人機比無線電和光纖控制的無人機飛行距離更遠，且不受幹擾。超高速連接也使得在俄羅斯境內可進行實時控制，亦大大提高其飛行精確度。

CNN已就此事向星鏈公司尋求置評，但未收到回應。在美國制裁之下，星鏈系統是不得在俄羅斯境內銷售或使用。

雖然其他俄羅斯無人機和飛彈可飛行更遠距離，但它們價格更高、體積更大，也更容易被偵測和擊落。配備星鏈迷你版（Starlink Mini）的簡易無人機售價在250至500美元之間，價格遠低於售價數萬美元的先進型號，且性能同樣出色。

Beskrestnov在無人機技術圈內以綽號「閃電」（Flash）更為人所知, 他分享了一張BM-35無人機在Dnipro發動襲擊的照片，並稱這款配備星鏈（Starlink）系統的無人機飛行距離可達500公里（310英里）。

他還表示，週二發生在烏克蘭東部一列民用列車上的致命襲擊很可能也是由一架配備網狀無線電數據機或或可能是星鏈系統的“沙赫德”（Shahed）無人機實施的，因為該無人機能夠突破電子防禦系統，並在飛行員的引導下擊中了行駛中的列車中部。

本月初，「閃電」告訴烏克蘭公共廣播公司Suspilne，說最近有一群配備星鏈系統的Molniya無人機襲擊了切爾尼戈夫地區的烏克蘭能源設施。 Molniya無人機是一種非常簡單且廉價的機器，由膠合板製成，能夠飛行數十英里。

他表示，由於星鏈技術的應用，每三架無人機中就有一架成功擊中了目標。 他說:「用電子戰手段壓制（它們）是不可能的。只有當防空無人機能夠看到它並向它射擊，才能夠實在地將其擊落」。

他週四表示，在距離前線約50公里（31英里）的Pavlohrad附近，夜間又有更多配備星鏈系統的Molniya無人機被投入使用。

繞過幹擾器

烏克蘭新任國防部長Mykhailo Fedorov（此前曾擔任科技和數位轉型部長，負責無人機研發和採購）表示，烏克蘭需要「迅速」應對星鏈系統的發展。

他說:「敵人不斷改進其無人機和攻擊戰術以實現其目標。每天都會出現新的風險」，並補充說，僅上個月俄羅斯就發射了6000多架無人機。這比11月和12月略多，但比去年同期記錄的數量多出兩倍多。

Fedorov週四表示，烏克蘭國防部已與馬斯克旗下的SpaceX公司（該公司擁有星鏈計劃）聯繫，提出了阻止俄羅斯使用該技術的方案。

他表示，他非常感謝SpaceX總裁Gwynne Shotwell和馬斯克本人迅速做出反應，並著手解決問題。

自戰爭爆發以來，烏克蘭對星鏈的依賴程度日益加深。軍方、政府以及眾多民眾、企業和公共機構包括醫院和學校、 都使用該系統進行通訊和操控無人機。

總部位於美國的衝突監測機構－戰爭研究所（ISW）表示，根據星鏈500公里的有效範圍，如果配備星鏈的BM-35無人機從俄羅斯或被佔領的烏克蘭境內發射，那麼「烏克蘭大部分地區、Moldova全境以及部分波蘭、羅馬尼亞和立陶宛的地區」都在其有效範圍內。

烏克蘭制裁專員Vladyslav Vlasiuk本週稍早表示，俄羅斯對星鏈的使用日益增加表明，烏克蘭盟友對俄羅斯施加的制裁壓力「不足」。

CNN先前曾報道，俄羅斯軍隊透過在第三國購買星鏈系統並將其部署到前線來規避制裁。當時，星鏈公司表示，將會令任何被發現由受制裁或未經授權方使用的終端裝置失效。

本週早些時候，馬斯克本人確實回應了俄羅斯使用其技術的批評。當時，波蘭副總理兼外交部長Radosław Sikorski在 X 平台問他，為什麼他不「阻止俄羅斯人使用星鏈攻擊烏克蘭城市」。

馬斯克回應稱Sikorski是“流著口水的白痴”，並表示星鍊是“烏克蘭軍事通信的支柱”。但他並未回應俄羅斯使用該系統的問題。

So, Russia has been mounting Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite systems on its attack drones to strike deeper into Ukraine. CNN has previously reported on Russian troops bypassing the sanctions by buying Starlink systems in third countries and then using them along the frontlines. At that time, Starlink said that it would deactivate any terminal found to be used by a sanctioned or unauthorized party. Apparently,  Starlink is important in conducting drone attacks.

43萬年前的木製工具是迄今為止發現的最古老工具

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

430,000-Year-Old Wooden Tools Are the Oldest Ever Found

The finding, along with the discovery of a 500,000-year-old hammer made of bone, indicates that our human ancestors were making tools even earlier than archaeologists thought.

The NYT - By Franz Lidz

Jan. 26, 2026

Early hominins in Europe were creating tools from raw materials hundreds of thousands of years before Homo sapiens arrived there, two new studies indicate, pushing back the established time for such activity. The evidence includes a 500,000-year-old hammer made of elephant or mammoth bone, excavated in southern England, and 430,000-year-old wooden tools found in southern Greece — the earliest wooden tools on record.

The findings suggest that early humans possessed sophisticated technological skills, the researchers said. Katerina Harvati, a paleoanthropologist at the University of Tübingen in Germany and a lead author of the wooden-tool paper, which was published on Monday in the journal PNAS, said the discoveries provided insight into the prehistoric origins of human intelligence.

Silvia Bello, a paleoanthropologist at London’s Natural History Museum and an author on the elephant-bone study, which was published last week in Science Advances, concurred.

The artifacts in both studies, recovered from coal-mine sites, were probably produced by early Neanderthals or a preceding species, Homo heidelbergensis. Homo sapiens emerged in Africa more than 300,000 years ago, and the oldest evidence of them in Europe is a 210,000-year-old fossil unearthed in Greece. By the time Homo sapiens established themselves in Britain 40,000 years ago, other hominins had already lived there for nearly a million years.

Sticks and stones

Because archaeology is in a perpetual state of rewriting its own history, the oldest record of any development is often temporary. The oldest known evidence of early humans intentionally crafting wood for structural purposes was found in 2019 at Kalambo Falls in Zambia and dates back 476,000 years. It consists of two carved, interlocking bushwillow logs that seem to have formed part of a dwelling or platform. “Organic artifacts, especially those derived from plants, are a lot more fragile and harder to find than those made from stone,” Dr. Havarti said.

The relics in the new wooden-tools paper were excavated from a deep layer at the Marathousa 1 site, a former lakeshore mine in the Megalopolis basin in Greece. They date back to the Middle Pleistocene age, which lasted from roughly 478,000 to 424,000 years ago. At the site, archaeologists discovered the partial skeleton of a straight-tusked elephant; the remains of turtles, birds, rodents and hippopotamuses; and stone tools used for butchering. Among the dozens of wood fragments embedded in the debris, two — a worked alder shard for digging and a carved poplar or willow twig — had been used as tools.

“We found marks from chopping and carving on both objects, clear signs that humans had shaped them,” said Annemieke Milks, an archaeologist at the University of Reading in England and a lead author of the study, who conducted microscopic analysis and CT scans of the items.

The digging stick was found among the elephant bones. Might it have been used to chop and carve meat from the carrion?

“I’ve never tried to cut up an elephant carcass, so I don’t know,” Dr. Havarti said. “I assume it’s not so easy, but I mean, I guess it’s possible.”

Elephantine tools

There is no older or more comprehensive assemblage of carved, sharpened elephant-bone tools than the collection uncovered over the last decade in the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania, which dates back 1.5 million years. Previously, European elephant-bone tools were thought to be limited to the warmer south and to have appeared within the last 450,000 years. But a hammer made of elephant or mammoth bone, discovered at the Boxgrove site in West Sussex in England during the 1990s and only recently identified, overturns that assumption.

The setting is rich in flint, bone and antler fossils, but this was the first tool of elephantine bone discovered there. Deformities on its surface indicate that it was created and used while fresh, leaving researchers to speculate on whether the ancient elephant was hunted or scavenged.

Dr. Bello said the tool, four inches long and triangular, was used for knapping, the process of breaking off flakes from a stone to create tools like hand axes. Researchers found distinctive notches and marks on the bone fragment. “The hammer has been struck against stone, repeatedly,” Dr. Bello said. “The small pieces of flint found embedded in the bone confirm that it was used for this specialized purpose.”

Citing the maxim that an absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, Dr. Bello suggested that the apparent scarcity of early tools resulted from poor preservation or difficulties in identification. Thomas Terberger, an expert in ancient artifact analysis at the Lower Saxony State Office for Cultural Heritage in Hannover, Germany, agreed. “Further proof may be found in as-yet undiscovered sites or existing museum collections,” he said.

Dr. Terberger noted that the new studies highlighted the diversity of raw materials that prehistoric people used for toolmaking. “Flint was more common, but bone and wood were probably more valuable for our ancient ancestors,” he said. “Imagine how many tools you can make from a single large bone of an elephant.”

Translation

43萬年前的木製工具是迄今為止發現的最古老工具

這項發現，連同先前發現的一把50萬年前的骨錘，顯示我們人類的祖先製造工具的時間比考古學家之前認為的還要早。

兩項新的研究表明，歐洲早期人類在智人到達歐洲之前數十萬年就已經開始利用原材料製造工具，這推翻了先前關於早期人類製造工具活動的既定時間。證據包括在英格蘭南部出土的一把50萬年前的象骨或猛獁象骨錘，以及在希臘南部發現的43萬年前的木製工具 - 這是迄今為止記錄在案的最早的木製工具。

研究人員表示，這些發現顯示早期人類擁有精湛的技術。德國圖賓根大學的古人類學家Katerina Harvati是在星期一在《美國國家科學院院刊》（PNAS）發的木製工具論文的主要作者之一。她表示，這些發現為了解人類智力的史前起源提供了新的視角。

倫敦自然史博物館的古人類學家Silvia Bello也同意這一點。她也是上週發表在《科學進展》（Science Advances）上的象骨研究的作者之一。

這兩項研究中的文物均出土於煤礦遺址，很可能是由早期尼安德特人或其更早的物種－海德堡人（Homo heidelbergensis）製造的。智人（Homo sapiens）於30多萬年前在非洲出現，而歐洲最古老的智人證據是一塊在希臘出土的、距今21萬年的化石。當智人在4萬年前定居英國時，其他人屬物種已經在那裡生活了近百萬年。

木棍與石頭

由於考古學處於不斷改寫自身歷史的狀態，任何發展最古老的記錄往往都是暫時的。已知最早的人類有意製作木材用於建築用途的證據於2019年在Zambia的Kalambo瀑布被發現，距今已有47. 6萬年歷史。它由兩根雕刻過的、交錯的柳條組成，似乎曾經是住所或平台的一部分。Havarti博士說: 「有機物，尤其是植物製品，比石製品脆弱得多和更難找到」。

這篇關於木製工具的新論文中的文物是從希臘Megalopolis盆地Marathousa 1號遺址的深層地層中挖掘出來的，該遺址曾是一處湖岸礦場。這些文物可以追溯到中更新世時期，大約從47.8萬年前到42.4萬年前。在遺址中，考古學家發現了部分直齒象的骨骼；龜、鳥、囓齒動物和河馬的遺骸；以及用於屠宰的石器。在散落在廢墟中的數十塊木片中，有兩塊曾被用作工具 - 一塊是用於挖掘的加工過的榿木碎片，另一塊是雕刻過的白楊或柳樹枝。

英國雷丁大學的考古學家Annemieke Milks說:「我們在這兩件物品上都發現了砍伐和雕刻的痕跡，這清楚地表明它們曾被人類加工過」。她是這項研究的主要作者之一，負責對這些物品進行顯微分析和CT掃描。

挖掘棒是在象骨堆中發現的。它是否曾被用來從死肉上剁肉剔骨？

Havarti博士說: 「我從未嘗試過切割象屍，所以我不清楚」; 「我猜這並不容易，但我的意思是，我想這並非不可能」。

象骨工具

 在過去十年間於坦尚尼亞Olduvai峽谷發現的象骨雕刻工具堆，是迄今為止發現的最古老、最全面的有雕刻、被磨尖的象骨工具，其歷史可追溯至150萬年前。此前，人們認為歐洲的象骨工具僅限出現於氣候溫暖的南方地區，且在距今45萬年之內。然而，1990年代在英國西薩塞克斯郡Boxgrove遺址發現，直到最近才被鑑定的一件由象骨或猛獁象骨造成的錘，顛覆了這個認知。

該遺址富含燧石、骨骼和鹿角化石，但這件象骨錘是首次在此發現。錘體表面的變形表明它是在新鮮狀態下製成和使用的，這讓研究人員不禁推測，這頭古代大像是被獵殺還是被拾荒得來的。

Bello博士說，這件長約四吋、呈三角形的工具用於分割敲打，也就是從石頭上敲下薄片來製作手斧等工具的過程。研究人員在骨片上發現了獨特的凹槽和痕跡。Bello博士說: “這把錘子曾反覆敲擊石頭” ， “骨頭裡嵌著的小塊燧石證實了它曾被用於這種特殊用途。”

Bello博士引用「沒有證據並不代表不存在」的格言，認為早期工具的稀少可能是由於保存狀況不佳或鑑定困難造成的。德國漢諾威Lower Saxony State文化遺產辦公室的古代文物分析專家Thomas Terberger對此表示贊同。他說： “或許在尚未發現的遺址，或在現有的博物館藏品中可能找到更多證據。”

Terberger 博士指出，這些新研究凸顯了史前人類用於製造工具的原料的多樣性。 他說:「燧石雖然比較常見，但骨頭和木頭對我們的古代祖先來說可能更有價值」; 「想想看，用一根巨大的象骨可以製作出多少種工具啊！」。

So, early hominins in Europe were creating tools from raw materials hundreds of thousands of years before Homo sapiens arrived there. The new evidence includes a 500,000-year-old hammer made of elephant or mammoth bone, excavated in southern England, and 430,000-year-old wooden tools found in southern Greece. These findings suggest that early humans possessed sophisticated technological skills. Probably, further proof may be found in as-yet undiscovered sites or existing museum collections. Apparently, this is a great story in understanding our pre-modern history.

世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球成長（2/2）

 Record Debt in the World’s Richest Nations Threatens Global Growth (2/2)

The cost of borrowing is already choking crucial public spending in many developing economies. Now it’s raising broader alarms.

By Patricia Cohen - Patricia Cohen, who has written frequently about debt across the world, is the global economics correspondent in London.

Jan. 27, 2026

Updated 9:34 a.m. ET

(continue)

Most countries have responded by significantly supporting Ukraine with billions of dollars and increasing military spending. Members of the North Atlantic alliance agreed to eventually devote 5 percent of their gross domestic product to defense. Japan is also substantially enlarging its military budget.

Tokyo’s debt is already staggering. It amounts to more than twice the country’s annual economic output.

The prospect of an even deeper hole grew last week when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suddenly called for a snap election. Both Ms. Takaichi’s Liberal Democrats and opposition parties are promising to increase spending and lower taxes.

Ms. Takaichi, for instance, has proposed suspending the consumption tax on food and nonalcoholic beverages, a move the Finance Ministry estimates would cost more than $30 billion annually.

For decades, Tokyo managed to fund its spending through rock-bottom interest rates that minimized borrowing costs. The Bank of Japan began to reverse its longstanding policy of ultralow interest rates in 2024.

It is moving slowly because of fears of financial instability, Mr. Rogoff of Harvard said. Japan has “stuffed debt into every orifice of the financial sector — pension funds, insurance companies, banks. And there are inflation pressures.”

The combination of low interest rates and elevated inflation particularly hurts working- and middle-income families, who see the value of their savings erode.

Ms. Takaichi’s announcement rattled investors. Bondholders quickly began selling and bond yields — interest that governments pay when they borrow money — jumped.

The uneasiness bled into other financial markets. Japanese investors are historically the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries. But higher returns from Japanese bonds could cause them to cut back on their purchase of American debt in order to take advantage of bigger yields at home.

Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to its highest level since August.

The turbulence set off alarms among some investors. Ken Griffin, chief executive of the hedge fund giant Citadel, characterized the sell-off as an “explicit warning” to other heavily indebted nations like the United States, noting that not even the world’s strongest and largest economy is immune to the risks.

Faith in U.S. creditworthiness briefly shuddered last April, when Mr. Trump’s blitz of tariff flip-flops caused Treasury yields to suddenly surge.

American bonds remain a safe haven in a risky world. Still, the president’s erratic economic policymaking and trade wars are one reason the current debt is unlike any other episode in American history, said William G. Gale, the author of “Fiscal Therapy: Curing America’s Debt Addiction and Investing in the Future.”

The U.S. national debt is now $38 trillion, roughly 125 percent the size of the American economy.

Mr. Trump has been acting like Max Bialystock in “The Producers,” promising payouts to farmers, taxpayers and bondholders with a limited pot of money. Analysts expect that the midterm elections will prompt the White House to spend even more freely in the coming year.

This month, Mr. Trump vowed to further increase military spending to $1.5 trillion dollars over the next fiscal year, which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculated would add $5.8 trillion to the national debt, including interest, over 10 years.

Net interest payments have tripled over the past five years, reaching roughly $1 trillion. They now eat up 15 percent of U.S. spending, the second biggest expense after Social Security.

Mr. Gale, who recently coauthored a study on the U.S. debt, warned that the continuing prospect of growing debt threatens the country’s role as an economic leader and undermines investor confidence in Treasury bonds and the dollar.

It also increases the burden on this generation’s children and grandchildren. As Mr. Gale explained, “the more you consume now, the less you can consume later.”

Translation

世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球成長（2/2）

借貸成本已經嚴重阻礙了許多發展中經濟體的關鍵公共支出。如今，這引發了更廣泛的警示。

（繼續）

大多數國家都做出了回應，向烏克蘭提供了數十億美元的援助，並增加了軍事開支。北大西洋公約組織成員國同意最終將國內生產毛額的5%用於國防。日本也大幅增加軍費預算。

東京的債務已經十分驚人，相當於全國年度經濟產出的兩倍多。

上週，高市早苗首相突然宣布提前舉行大選，這使得日本的債務問題雪上加霜。高市所在的自民黨和反對黨都承諾增加支出並降低稅收。

例如，高市提議暫停徵收食品和非酒精飲料的消費稅，根據財務省估計，此舉每年將耗資超過300億美元。

幾十年來，東京一直依靠極低的利率來維持支出，以最大限度地降低借貸成本。日本央行從2024年開始逐步扭轉其長期奉行的超低利率政策。

哈佛的Rogoff表示，由於擔心金融不穩定，日本央行的步伐較為緩慢。日本“將債務塞進了金融部門的每個角落 - 養老基金、保險公司、銀行。而且，通膨壓力仍然存在。”

低利率和高通膨的雙重打擊尤其損害了打工階層和中等收入家庭的利益，他們的儲蓄不斷縮減。

高市的聲明令投資者感到不安。債券持有人迅速開始拋售，債券殖利率（政府借款時支付的利息）飆升。

這種不安情緒蔓延至其他金融市場。日本投資者歷來是美國國債最大的外國持有者。但日本債券更高的收益可能促使他們減少購買美國國債，轉而投資殖利率更高的日本國內債券。

上週，10年期美國公債殖利率升至8月以來的最高水準。

這種動盪引發了一些投資者的警覺。對沖基金巨頭Citadel首席執行官肯Ken Griffin將此次拋售描述為對其他負債累累的國家（例如美國）的 “明確警告” ，並指出即使是世界上最強大、規模最大的經濟體也無法免受風險的影響。

去年4月，特朗普總統反覆無常的關稅政策導致美國公債殖利率突然飆升，也短暫動搖了人們對美國信用評級的信心。

美國債券在充滿風險的世界中仍然是避風港。然而，William G. Gale在其著作《財政療法：治愈美國的債務成癮並投資未來》（Fiscal Therapy: Curing America’s Debt Addiction and Investing in the Future）中指出，總統反覆無常的經濟政策和貿易戰是造成當前債務與美國歷史上任何其他事件都截然不同的原因之一。

美國國債目前高達38兆美元，約佔美國經濟規模的125%。

特朗普的行為就像電影《製片人》（The Producers）中的Max Bialystock一樣，承諾用有限的金錢向農民、納稅人和債券持有人支付開支。分析人士預計，中期選舉將促使白宮在未來一年更加肆意地支出。

本月，特朗普誓言在下一財年將軍費開支進一步增加到1.5兆美元。負責任聯邦預算委員會計算得出，這將使美國國債包括利息在未來10年內增加5.8兆美元。

過去五年，淨利息支出增加了兩倍，達到約1兆美元。如今，淨利息支出佔美國總支出的15%，位居第二，僅次於社會安全保障。

Gale近期與人合著了一份關於美國債務的研究報告。他警告說，債務持續增長的前景威脅著美國的經濟領導地位，並削弱了投資者對美國國債和美元的信心。

這也會加重這一代子孫的後代的負擔。正如Gale所解釋的， “現在消費越多，以後可以消費就越少。”

        So, last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to its highest level since August. The turbulence set off alarms among some investors and the sell-off is characterized as an “explicit warning” to other heavily indebted nations like the United States. Record or near-record debt in the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Japan has the potential to cause financial instability around the globe. The concern is that what happens if there’s a financial crisis, a pandemic or a war that requires spending a lot of money to deal with? 

世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球成長（1/2）

 Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Record Debt in the World’s Richest Nations Threatens Global Growth (1/2)

The cost of borrowing is already choking crucial public spending in many developing economies. Now it’s raising broader alarms.

By Patricia Cohen - Patricia Cohen, who has written frequently about debt across the world, is the global economics correspondent in London.

Jan. 27, 2026

Updated 9:34 a.m. ET

For decades crushing debt has spread misery in the world’s poor and lower-income nations. But the menace of unsupportable borrowing that now hangs over the global economy emanates from some of the richest countries.

Record or near-record debt in the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Japan threatens to hamstring growth and sow financial instability around the globe.

At home, it means countries must make interest payments with money that otherwise could have paid for health care, roads, public housing, technological advances or education.

The hunger for more and more loans has also pushed up borrowing costs, gobbling up a bigger share of taxpayer money. It can also push up rates on business, consumer and car loans, as well as mortgages and credit cards; and drive up inflation.

And perhaps most worrisome, overhanging debt — pumped up even when an economy is relatively sound and jobless rates are low, like the United States — gives governments less room to respond when things sour.

“You want to be able to spend big and spend fast when you need to,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economics professor.

What happens if there’s a financial crisis, a pandemic or a war? What if there’s a sudden need for more social services spending and jobless relief because of changes caused by artificial intelligence or climate-related disasters?

Borrowing a lot of money quickly becomes more difficult — and expensive — when the national debt is already sky-high.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, President Trump commanded center stage, but on the sidelines, finance ministers fretted over their ability to fund a growing list of must-haves, from beefed-up militaries to upgraded electricity grids.

Government borrowing when an economy is strong, and when interest rates are low, can support growth, and in times of distress can help bolster spending. The cycle of supercharged borrowing began with the 2008 financial crisis and recession, when governments rushed to provide assistance to struggling households and tax revenues fell. Relief programs during the Covid-19 pandemic, as economies shut down and health care costs rocketed, kicked debt levels up another notch as interest rates were rising and outpacing growth.

But debt levels did not decline. And now, in six of the wealthy Group of 7 nations, the national debt equals or exceeds the country’s annual economic output, according to the International Monetary Fund.

More and more countries are being squeezed by demographics and slow growth. In Europe, Britain and Japan, aging populations have driven up the government’s health care and pension costs at the same time that the number of workers who provide the necessary tax revenue has shrunk.

The need to rebuild infrastructure and invest in advanced technology in many regions is also dire. A yearlong study requested by the European Union’s executive arm concluded that the 27-member bloc needed to spend an additional $900 billion on things like artificial intelligence, a shared energy grid, supercomputing and advanced worker training to effectively compete.

In Britain, it will cost at least 300 billion pounds ($410 billion) to upgrade infrastructure over the next decade, according to Future Governance Forum, a think tank in London. Billions more will be needed to revitalize its limping National Health Service.

Efforts to trim public spending in Italy, where debt equals 138 percent of gross domestic product, by cutting health care, education and public services, or in France by raising the retirement age, have set off vehement protests.

France, which has been politically deadlocked over the budget for months, saw its sovereign debt rating downgraded last fall, raising questions about the country’s financial stability.

Meanwhile, the world has turned more dangerous. Tensions between China and the United States have sharpened. Europe is threatened by an increasingly aggressive Russia and a belligerent American president.

(to be continued)

Translation

世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球經濟成長（1/2）

借貸成本已經嚴重阻礙了許多發展中經濟體的關鍵公共支出。如今，它引發了更廣泛的警示。

幾十年來，沉重的債務為世界上的貧困和低收入國家帶來了苦難。但如今籠罩全球經濟的難以承受的借貸威脅，卻來自一些最富裕的國家。

美國、英國、法國、義大利和日本的債務已達到或接近歷史最高水平，這有可能阻礙經濟成長，並在全球引發金融不穩定。

在這國內，這意味著各國必須以原本可用於醫療保健、道路、公共住宅、技術進步或教育的資金來支付利息。

對貸款需求的不斷增長也推高了借貸成本，吞噬了納稅人越來越多的資金。這也會導致商業貸款、消費貸款、汽車貸款、抵押貸款和信用卡利率上漲，並推高通貨膨脹。

或許最令人擔憂的是，即使在經濟相對穩健、失業率較低的情況下, 例如美國，頭頂的債務也不斷攀升，這使得政府在情況惡化時應對能力下降。

哈佛大學經濟學教授Kenneth Rogoff 說:「你要能夠在有需要時, 可以快速且大規模地用錢」。

如果發生金融危機、疫情或戰爭會怎樣？如果因為人工智能或氣候災害帶來的變化，突然需要增加社會服務支出和失業救濟金時又會怎麼樣？

當國家債務已經高得驚人時，借貸就會變得更加困難，成本也會更高。

上週在達沃斯舉行的世界經濟論壇上，特朗普總統佔據了舞台焦點，但在旁邊，各國財長卻為能否為日益增長的「必需品」清單提供資金而憂心忡忡，這些必需品包括加強軍備和升級電網。

在經濟強勁、利率較低時，政府借貸可以支持經濟成長；而在經濟困境時期，借貸則會刺激開支。這種過度借貸的周期始於2008年的金融危機和經濟衰退，當時各國政府爭相向陷入困境的家庭提供援助，導致稅收下降。新冠疫情期間，隨著經濟停擺和醫療成本飆升，救助計劃進一步推高了債務水平，因為利率上升的速度超過了經濟成長速度。

但債務水平並未下降。根據國際貨幣基金組織統計，如今，在富裕的七國集團（G7）中，有六個國家的國債等於或超過了該國的年度經濟產出。

越來越多的國家正受到人口結構變化和經濟成長放緩的雙重壓力。在歐洲、英國和日本，人口老化推高了政府的醫療保健和退休金支出，同時，貢獻必要稅收的勞工人數卻在減少。

許多地區重建基礎設施和投資先進技術的需求也十分迫切。歐盟執行機構委託進行的一項為期一年的研究得出結論：歐盟27個成員國需要額外投入9000億美元用於人工智能、共享能源網、超級計算和高級勞動力培訓等領域，才能有效參與競爭。

據倫敦智庫「未來治理論壇」稱，未來十年，英國至少需要3,000億英鎊（4,100億美元）用於基礎設施升級。此外，還需要數十億英鎊來振興其步履蹣跚的國民醫療服務體系（NHS）。

在義大利，債務相當於國內生產毛額的138%，政府試圖透過削減醫療保健、教育和公共服務來削減公共支出；在法國，政府則試圖提高退休年齡。這些舉措都引發了強烈的抗議。

法國因預算問題陷入數月政治僵局，其主權債務評級於去年秋季有所下調，引發了人們對該國金融穩定的擔憂。

同時，世界局勢變得更加危險。中美關係日益緊張。歐洲面對日益咄咄逼人的俄羅斯及好戰的美國總統的威脅。

（待續）