Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:
米中貿易戦争の最前線、海運業界に生じる混乱 米玩具業界にも深刻な打撃
2025.06.17 Tue posted at 13:23 JST
（ＣＮＮ） 米国が４月２日に世界の大半の国々に対する包括的な関税を発表したことで、世界中の物品の自由な流通を可能にする複雑なグローバルサプライチェーン（供給網）、特に製造品の９０％を輸送する海運業界には混乱が生じた。
大半の関税については別途９０日間停止されているにもかかわらず、企業幹部らは、関税が再び課される前提で事業を運営しなければならないと話す。
米国企業は貿易戦争の休戦中に商品の備蓄に努めている。需要に応えるため中国の工場をフル稼働させ、海運会社にはこの期間内に最大限の商品を納入するよう働きかけている。
「企業が前倒しで調達しようとするのは、ほんの数週間後がどうなるか分からないからだ」と、北京に拠点を置く中国欧盟商会のイェンス・エスケルンド会頭は述べた。「計画することが非常に難しくなり、非効率が生じている。結果的にはコスト増につながるだろう」
米国との貿易摩擦にもかかわらず、船員たちは驚くほど冷静に見える。これは、海運業界の特徴となっている回復力の表れだ。近年、海運業界は新型コロナウイルス感染症のパンデミック（世界的大流行）、スエズ運河の封鎖、紅海におけるイエメンの反政府武装組織フーシによるミサイルの脅威など、数々の危機を乗り越えてきた。
米国側では、中国からの輸入に依存している企業の一部が経営難に陥っている。
「こうした企業の一部は衰退するだろう」と、シカゴに拠点を置く知育玩具企業ラーニング・リソーシズのリック・ウォルデンバーグ最高経営責任者（ＣＥＯ）は指摘する。「ばく大な富が破壊され、回復は不可能だと思う」
米国玩具協会によると、米国で販売される玩具の８０％近くが中国製であるため、玩具業界は特に深刻な打撃を受けている。
闘うことを選択
貿易戦争をめぐり、ウォルデンバーグ氏はトランプ政権を相手取った訴訟に勝訴したが、連邦地裁による関税差し止めの判断は、政府の上訴により現在執行停止となっている。
「もちろん、闘わざるを得なかった」「ノックアウトパンチは受けられない」（ウォルデンバーグ氏）
米国で５００人の従業員を擁するラーニング・リソーシズは現在、米中間の「メロドラマのような浮き沈み」を回避するため、玩具生産の一部を中国から積極的に移転させている。
一方で、貿易戦争の目標の一つとされる米国への生産拠点の移転は、「官僚の空想に過ぎない」と一蹴する。米国には現在、十分な生産能力がないからだ。
ウォルデンバーグ氏は、小売店は確実に品切れを起こすとの見方を示す。
業界のトップらは、品不足に加え、あらゆる経済的負担が米国民に転嫁されることも明確に認識している。
Translation
The shipping industry is on the front line of the
US-China trade war, and it's a serious blow to the US toy industry
(CNN) The US announced comprehensive tariffs on most countries on April 2 was disrupting the complex global supply chain that allowed goods to flow freely around the world, especially the shipping industry, which transported 90% of manufactured goods.
Despite the suspension of most tariffs for another 90 days, corporate executives said they had to operate their businesses on the assumption that tariffs would be imposed again.
US companies were stockpiling goods during the trade truce. They were running Chinese factories at full capacity to meet demand and encouraging shipping companies to deliver as much goods as possible during this period.
"Companies are trying to frontload purchases because they don't know what the next few weeks will bring," said Jens Eskelund, chairman of the Beijing-based China-European Union Chamber of Commerce. "It's making planning very difficult, and it's creating inefficiencies. It's going to lead to higher costs."
"Massive wealth destruction"
The 302-metre One Modern, owned by Ocean Network Express Japan, was carrying up to 7,000 containers packed with mostly Chinese-made goods, including clothing, furniture and auto parts. It's bound for the US.
Despite the trade tensions with the US, the crew seemed surprisingly calm, a sign of the resilience that had characterised the shipping industry. In recent years the industry had weathered a number of crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the blockade of the Suez Canal and the missile threats from Yemeni Houthi rebels in the Red Sea.
On the US side, some companies that relied on Chinese imports were struggling.
"Some of these companies will decline," said Rick
Waldenberg, CEO of Chicago-based educational toy company Learning Resources.
"A lot of wealth has been destroyed, and I don't think it will recover."
According to the American Toy Association, the toy industry had been hit particularly hard, as nearly 80% of toys sold in the U.S. were made in China.
To choose to fight
While Waldenberg won a lawsuit against the Trump administration over the trade war, the federal district court's decision to suspend the tariffs had been stayed due to an appeal by the government.
"Of course we have to fight”; "We can't take a knockout punch." (Waldenberg said)
Learning Resources that was employing 500 people in the U.S. was currently actively relocating some of its toy production out of China to avoid " melodrama like ups and downs" between the U.S. and China.
On the other hand, he dismissed outright the relocation of production bases to the U.S. which was one of the targets of the trade war, as "nothing more than a bureaucratic fantasy." The U.S. currently did not have enough production capacity.
President Trump had so far downplayed the impact of tariffs on U.S. companies and consumers. At the April 30 Cabinet meeting, he commented on container ships arriving in the US, saying, "There's a lot of stuff piled high, but a lot of it is stuff we don't need," and that "kids will get two dolls instead of 30," and that "two dolls might cost a few dollars more than normal."
Woldenberg said he expected retailers would run out of stock for sure.
Industry leaders clearly knew that in addition to the shortages, any economic burden would be passed on to the American people.
So, the comprehensive tariffs on
most countries announced by the US on is disrupting the complex global supply
chain that allows goods to flow freely, especially the shipping industry.
Despite the suspension of most tariffs for another 90 days, US companies are
stockpiling goods during the trade truce. Industry leaders know that the
tariffs will cause shortages of goods, and that the consequential economic
burden will be passed on to the American consumers.
Note:
1. Jens Eskelund is the
President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. He has lived and
worked in China for 25 years and is also the chief representative for Maersk in
China. He is the Managing Director of Maersk China Ltd and a member of the
DWARC External Experts Advisory Board. (Sider)
2. The term melodrama refers to a dramatic work that
exaggerates plot and characters in order to appeal to the emotions. It may also
refer to the genre which includes such works, or to language, behavior, or
events which resemble them. It is also used in scholarly and historical musical
contexts to refer to dramas of the 18th and 19th centuries in which orchestral
music or song was used to accompany the action. (Wikipedia)
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