貿易戰加劇，中國工廠出廠通縮創兩年來最嚴重

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China's factory-gate deflation worst in 2 years as trade war bites

Reuters  - Reporting by Qiaoyi Li and Ryan Woo; Editing by Shri Navaratnam

Updated Tue, July 8, 2025 at 8:53 p.m. PDT·3 min read

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's producer deflation deepened to its worst level in almost two years in June as the economy grappled with uncertainty over a global trade war and subdued demand at home, piling pressure on policymakers to roll out more support measures.

While consumer prices rose for the first time in five months, the uptick was marginal as a prolonged housing market downturn in the world's second-biggest economy added to headwinds from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on trading partners.

The producer price index fell 3.6% in June from a year earlier, worse than a 3.3% decline in May and the largest drop since July 2023. That compared with forecast of a 3.2% slide in a Reuters poll.

Some export-oriented industries are under pressure in price terms, said Dong Lijuan, NBS statistician.

"The uncertainty in the global trade environment has affected the export expectations of enterprises," Dong said.

China's factory activity shrank for a third month in a row in June, albeit at a slower pace, with employment and new export orders still languishing.

"We expect demand to weaken later this year, as exports slow and the boost from fiscal support diminishes," said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

Market reaction to the data was cautious as Trump ramps up his trade war. China's Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.3% by the midday break, while Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng traded down 0.7%.

As subdued domestic demand remains a drag on China's economy, companies have resorted to price discounts to boost sales, prompting the authorities to urge an end to the auto industry's bruising price wars.

Highlighting the tepid consumer market, Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com have pledged heavy subsidies over recent months to expand aggressively into fast deliveries.

A diverging trend in consumer prices likely indicates "the effects of the consumer goods trade-in scheme," Huang said, but added that "with this boost likely to fade soon, we expect underlying inflation to decline again later this year."

The consumer price index edged up 0.1% last month from a year earlier, reversing a 0.1% drop in May and above a Reuters poll prediction of an unchanged outcome.

The consumer price uptick was "mainly due to a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices," NBS's Dong said.

On a monthly basis, the CPI was down 0.1% versus a 0.2% decline in May, and in line with economist forecasts of a 0.1% drop.

Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, spiked to 0.7% in June from a year earlier, the highest in 14 months.

Lynn Song, ING's chief economist for China, said the recent relative strength of the yuan and persistently soft inflation will give the People’s Bank of China room to cut rates further later in the year.

"With activity data softening slightly in recent months, but not signaling a sense of immediate urgency, we currently expect the next rate cut to come in the fourth quarter."

Translation

貿易戰加劇，中國工廠出廠通縮創兩年來最嚴重

北京（路透社）— 中國6月份生產者通貨緊縮進一步加劇至近兩年來最嚴重水平，原因是全球貿易戰帶來的不確定性以及國內需求低迷，給政策制定者帶來壓力去推出更多支持措施。

儘管消費者物價指數（CPI）五個月來首次上漲，但由於全球第二大經濟體房地產市場持續低迷，以及美國總統特朗普對貿易夥伴加徵關稅的不利因素，漲幅上升輕微。

6月份，中國生產者物價指數（PPI）年減3.6%，降幅差過的5月3.3%，創下2023年7月以來的最大降幅。路透社調查預測該指數將下降3.2%。

國家統計局 (NBS) 統計師 Dong Lijuan 表示，一些出口導向產業的價格面臨壓力。

Dong Lijuan說: 「全球貿易環境的不確定性影響了企業的出口預期」。

中國6月份製造業活動連續第三個月萎縮，儘管步伐放緩，就業和新出口訂單仍低迷。

Capital Economics的中國經濟學家 Zichun Huang表示： “我們預計今年晚些時候需求將會減弱，因為出口放緩，財政支持帶來的提振作用減弱。”

隨著特朗普加劇貿易戰，市場對這些數據的反應較為謹慎。截至午盤休市，中國上證綜合指數上漲0.3%，而香港恆生指數下跌0.7%。

由於國內需求低迷持續拖累中國經濟，企業紛紛採取降價促銷來提振銷量，促使當局敦促汽車業停止激烈的價格戰。

中國電商巨頭阿里巴巴和京東近幾個月承諾提供巨額補貼，以大力拓展快速配送業務，凸顯了消費市場的疲軟。

Huang表示，消費者價格走勢分化可能表明 “以舊換新政策” 的影響，但他補充說： “由於這種提振作用可能很快消退，我們預計今年晚些時候基本通脹將再次下降。”

上個月，中國消費者物價指數年增0.1%，扭轉了5月0.1%的下降趨勢，並高於路透社民調預測的持平趨勢。

國家統計局長Dong表示，消費者價格上漲「主要是由於工業消費品價格反彈」。

按月計算，CPI下降0.1%，相比5月份下降0.2%，與經濟學家預測的下降0.1%相符。

6月份，扣除波動較大的食品和燃料價格的核心通膨率年增至0.7%，為14個月以來的最高水平。

荷蘭國際集團(ING)中國區首席經濟學家 Lynn Song 表示，近期人民幣相對走強以及持續疲軟的通膨將為中國人民銀行在今年稍後進一步降息提供空間。

“鑑於近幾個月經濟活動數據略有疲軟，但並未顯示出立即降息的緊迫性，我們目前預計下一次降息將在第四季度。”

              So, China's producer deflation deepens to its worst level in almost two years in June as the economy is facing uncertainty over a global trade war and subdued demand at home, piling pressure on policymakers to roll out more support measures. Apparently, consumption in China is weak.

Note:

1. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) (Chinese: 国家统计局) is a deputy-ministerial level agency directly under the State Council of China. Established in August 1952, the bureau is responsible for collection, investigation, research and publication of statistics concerning the nation's economy, population and other aspects of the society.