分析顯示，特朗普的關稅將使美國雇主損失823億美元

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Analysis shows Trump's tariffs would cost US employers $82.3 billion

The Associated Press - Josh Boak

Wed, July 2, 2025 at 7:51 a.m. PDT 4 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — An analysis finds that a critical group of U.S. employers would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s current tariff plans, a sum that could be potentially managed through price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins.

The analysis by the JPMorganChase Institute is among the first to measure the direct costs created by the import taxes on businesses with $10 million to $1 billion in annual revenue, a category that includes roughly a third of private-sector U.S. workers. These companies are more dependent than other businesses on imports from China, India and Thailand — and the retail and wholesale sectors would be especially vulnerable to the import taxes being levied by the Republican president.

The findings show clear trade-offs from Trump’s import taxes, contradicting his claims that foreign manufacturers would absorb the costs of the tariffs instead of U.S. companies that rely on imports. While the tariffs launched under Trump have yet to boost overall inflation, large companies such as Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma delayed the potential reckoning by building up their inventories before the taxes could be imposed.

The analysis comes just ahead of the July 9 deadline by Trump to formally set the tariff rates on goods from dozens of countries. Trump imposed that deadline after the financial markets panicked in response to his April tariff announcements, prompting him to instead schedule a 90-day negotiating period when most imports faced a 10% baseline tariff. China, Mexico and Canada face higher rates, and there are separate 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Had the initial April 2 tariffs stayed in place, the companies in the JPMorganChase Institute analysis would have faced additional direct costs of $187.6 billion. Under the current rates, the $82.3 billion would be equivalent on average to $2,080 per employee, or 3.1% of the average annual payroll. Those averages include firms that don't import goods and those that do.

Asked Tuesday how trade talks are faring, Trump said simply: “Everything’s going well.”

The president has indicated he will set tariff rates given the logistical challenge of negotiating with so many nations. As the 90-day period comes to a close, only the United Kingdom has signed a trade framework with the Trump administration. Trump announced Wednesday he has reached a deal with Vietnam, with details to follow. India has signaled it is close to agreeing on a trade framework.

There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that more inflation could surface. The investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report that it expects companies to pass along 60% of their tariff costs onto consumers. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has used its survey of businesses’ inflation expectations to say that companies could on average pass along roughly half their costs from a 10% tariff or a 25% tariff without reducing consumer demand.

The JPMorganChase Institute findings suggest that the tariffs could cause some domestic manufacturers to strengthen their roles as suppliers of goods. But it noted that companies need to plan for a range of possible outcomes and that wholesalers and retailers already operate on such low profit margins that they might need to spread the tariffs costs to their customers.

The outlook for tariffs remains highly uncertain. Trump had stopped negotiations with Canada, only to restart them after the country dropped its plan to tax digital services. He similarly on Monday threatened more tariffs on Japan unless it buys more rice from the U.S.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Tuesday interview that the concessions from the trade talks have impressed career officials at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and other agencies.

“People who have been at Treasury, at Commerce, at USTR for 20 years are saying that these are deals like they’ve never seen before,” Bessent said on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends.”

The treasury secretary said the Trump administration plans to discuss the contours of trade deals next week, prioritizing the tax cuts package passed on Tuesday by the Republican majority in the Senate. Trump has set a Friday deadline for passage of the multitrillion-dollar package, the costs of which the president hopes to offset with tariff revenues.

Translation

分析顯示，特朗普的關稅將使美國雇主損失823億美元

華盛頓（美聯社）— 一項分析發現，特朗普總統目前的關稅計劃將使美國一個關鍵的雇主群體直接損失823億美元，這筆損失可以透過漲價、裁員、凍結招聘或降低利潤率來控制。

摩根大通研究所的這項分析是首批評估進口稅對年收入1,000萬至10億美元企業造成的直接成本的分析之一，這類企業約佔美國私人企業員工的三分之一。與其他企業相比，這些企業更依賴從中國、印度和泰國進口的商品 - 而零售和批發業尤其容易受到共和黨總統徵收的進口稅的影響。

研究結果清楚地表明，特朗普的進口稅存在利弊權衡，這與他聲稱外國製造商將承擔關稅成本，而不是依賴進口的美國公司的說法相矛盾。雖然特朗普政府推出的關稅尚未推高整體通膨，但亞馬遜、好市多、沃爾瑪和威廉斯-索諾瑪等大型企業在關稅生效前囤積庫存，從而延緩了潛在的後果。

這項分析報告發佈於特朗普正式設定對數十個國家商品徵收關稅的7月9日最後期限之前。特朗普設定這一最後期限是因為金融市場對他4月的關稅聲明感到恐慌，促使他安排了一個90天的談判期，在此期間大多數進口產品將面臨10%的基準關稅。中國、墨西哥和加拿大將面臨更高的關稅，鋼鐵和鋁也將分別面臨50%的關稅。

如果最初4月2日的關稅維持不變，摩根大通研究所分析的公司將面臨1,876億美元的額外直接成本。依照目前的轉換率，這823億美元相當於平均每位員工2,080美元，佔平均年薪的3.1%。這些平均值包括不進口商品的公司和進口商品的公司。

週二，當特朗普被問及貿易談判進展如何時，他簡單地回答： “一切進展順利。”

總統已表示，鑑於與眾多國家談判的後勤挑戰，他將自行設定關稅稅率。隨著90天期限的結束，只有英國與特朗普政府簽署了貿易框架協議。特朗普週三宣布，他已與越南達成協議，具體細節將隨後公佈。印度已表示即將就貿易框架協議達成協議。

越來越多的證據表明，通膨可能進一步加劇。投資銀行高盛在報告中表示，預計企業將把60%的關稅成本轉嫁給消費者。亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行利用其企業通膨預期調查結果顯示，企業平均可以將10%或25%關稅帶來的約一半負担轉嫁出去，而不會減少消費者需求。

摩根大通研究所的調查結果表明，關稅可能會導致一些國內製造商強化其作為商品供應商的角色。但該研究所指出，企業需要為一系列可能的結果做好規劃，而批發商和零售商的利潤率已經很低，他們可能需要將關稅成本分攤給客戶。

關稅前景仍然高度不確定。特朗普先前曾停止與加拿大的談判，但在加拿大放棄對數位服務徵稅計劃後，談判才得以重啟。週一，他還威脅稱，除非日本從美國購買更多大米，否則將對日本徵收更多關稅。

財政部長貝森特在周二的一次採訪中表示，貿易談判中收到的讓步給美國貿易代表辦公室和其他機構的職業官員留下了深刻的印象。

貝森特在霍仕新聞頻道的「霍仕與朋友」節目中說道: 「在財政部、商務部和美國貿易代表辦公室工作了20年的人們都說，這些協議是他們從未見過的」。

財政部長表示，特朗普政府計劃下週討論貿易協議的框架，優先處理共和黨在參議院多數席位之下於週二通過的減稅方案。特朗普已設定週五為通過這項數萬億美元方案的最後期限，總統希望用關稅收入來抵銷其方案的成本。

So, an analysis finds that a critical group of U.S. employers would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s current tariff plans, a sum that could be potentially managed through price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins. Apparently, US companies need to plan for a range of possible outcomes caused by the tariffs war.