特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準呢？ (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Trump’s tariffs were supposed to strengthen the dollar. So why is it the weakest it’s been in three years? (2/2)

John Towfighi, CNN

Wed, June 25, 2025 at 6:34 a.m. PDT·5 min read

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Loss of confidence

The dollar’s decline reflects a crisis of confidence in the United States, said Arun Sai, senior multi asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management.

“If you cannot with certainty take a view on the position of the US administration, it’s hard to commit capital,” Sai said. “What we’ve seen with the current administration in the last few months is that this notion of the US being a default destination for global capital is being challenged.”

The Trump administration’s flip-flopping on tariffs has been “detrimental to confidence” in the US dollar, according to Sai.

As Trump’s tariffs roiled markets in early April, there was a simultaneous drop in US stocks, bonds and the dollar that spooked investors. “That’s very peculiar. It doesn’t usually happen in the US,” Sai said. “For us, that’s indicative of a loss of confidence.”

Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, said the dollar’s status as a strong currency and haven that investors turn to during times of stress is being dented.

“It doesn’t mean it’s going to lose its crown. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to be substituted entirely. The dollar remains the number one currency in most transactions in the world and is still the most liquid one,” Pesole said. “However, there is now a case for markets to see that dominance sort of starting to decline at a faster pace than it has in recent years.”

A survey of global fund managers by Bank of America in June showed the lowest exposure to the US dollar since 2005.

Dollar down, euro up

Meanwhile, there have been more appealing investment opportunities in Europe. As the dollar has declined and the euro has strengthened, there are compelling opportunities to diversify and invest overseas, said Jason Blackwell, chief investment strategist at Focus Partners Wealth.

International stocks can provide better returns in a weaker dollar environment. “We can point to our non-US equity holdings and show what that diversification benefit has looked like year to date,” he said.

The euro is up 11.5% against the dollar this year, hitting its strongest level against the greenback in more than four years.

Blackwell said international mutual funds and ETFs are great opportunities to diversify portfolios. He said he sees the decline in the dollar as less of an indictment of the United States and more of a “positive outlook” for other countries around the globe.

Translation

特朗普的關稅本應會提振美元。那麼，美元為何跌至三年來的最低水準呢？ (2/2)

(繼續)

失去信心

Pictet資產管理公司高級多元資產策略師 Arun Sai表示，美元的下跌反映了人們對美國的信心危機。

Sai說: 「如果你不能準確定地了解美國政府的立場，就很難投入資金」; 「過去幾個月，我們看到現任政府的做法，將美國視作為全球資本默認目的地的理念正在受到挑戰」。

Sai認為，特朗普政府在關稅問題上的反覆無常「損害了人們對美元的信心」。

4月初，特朗普的關稅政策引發市場動盪，美國股市、債市和美元同時下跌，令投資人感到恐慌。 Sai 說: 「這是非常奇怪。這在美國通常不會發生」; 「對我們來說，這表明喪失信心」。

荷蘭國際集團（ING）外匯策略師 Francesco Pesole 表示，美元作為強勢貨幣和投資者在市場緊張時期尋求避風港的地位正在受到削弱。

Pesole說: 「這並不意味著美元將失去其王冠，也不意味著它將被完全取代。美元仍然是全球大多數交易中的第一大貨幣，而且仍然是流動性最強的貨幣」; 「然而，現在市場有理由認為，美元的主導地位正開始以比近年來更快的速度下滑」。

美國銀行6月對全球基金經理人進行的一項調查顯示，美元兌其他貨幣價值降至2005年以來的最低水平。

 

美元下跌，歐元上漲

同時，歐洲的投資機會也更具吸引力。 Focus Partners Wealth首席投資策略師 Jason Blackwell 表示，隨著美元下跌、歐元走強，分散投資及投資海外資產是極具吸引力的機會。

在美元走弱的環境下，國際股票可以提供更佳的回報。 他說: 「我們可以望向我們持有的非美國股票為例，看看今年迄今為止這種分散投資的效益如何」。

歐元兌美元今年上漲了11.5%，創下四年多來的最高水準。

Blackwell 表示，國際共同基金和ETF是分散投資組合的絕佳機會。他認為，美元下跌與其說是對美國的指控，不如說是對全球其他國家來說是一個「正面的展望」。

              So, the US dollar is having its worst year in decades. The US dollar index is down nearly 10% this year. The dollar’s decline probably reflects a crisis of confidence in the United States, and it seems that international mutual funds and ETFs are great opportunities to diversify portfolios.

Note:

1. Exposure to the U.S. dollar (對美元的風險敞口)can be understood in a few ways. One is through direct investment in the U.S. dollar itself, such as through an ETF that tracks its value against another currency, like the Canadian dollar. Another is through the U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of foreign currencies. Finally, exposure can occur through investments in securities that hold multiple currencies. Understanding the type of exposure is crucial for managing financial risk and making informed investment decisions. (Sider)