2022年6月30日 星期四

拆解:為什麼中國否認香港曾是英國的殖民地?

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

EXPLAINER: Why is China denying Hong Kong was a UK colony?

KEN MORITSUGU

Fri, June 17, 2022, 2:03 AM

BEIJING (AP) — Hong Kong is preparing to introduce new middle school textbooks that will deny the Chinese territory was ever a British colony. China's Communist rulers say the semi-autonomous city and the nearby former Portuguese colony of Macao were merely occupied by foreign powers and that China never relinquished sovereignty over them.

It's not a new position for China, but the move is a further example of Beijing’s determination to enforce its interpretation of history and events and inculcate patriotism as it tightens its grip over Hong Kong following massive protests demanding democracy in 2019.

“Hong Kong has been Chinese territory since ancient times,” says one new textbook seen by the AP. “While Hong Kong was occupied by the British following the Opium War, it remained Chinese territory.”

It is one of four sets of textbooks being offered to schools to replace those currently in use, all stating the same position, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post newspaper reported earlier this week.

WAS HONG KONG A COLONY?

Hong Kong was a British colony from 1841 until its handover to Chinese rule in 1997, with the exception of Japanese occupation from 1941 to 1945. Its colonial status was the result of a pair of 19th century treaties signed at the end of the first and second Opium Wars, along with the granting of a 99-year lease in 1898 to the New Territories, which greatly expanded the size of the colony.

China’s Communist Party, which seized power during a civil war in 1949, says it never recognized what it calls the “unequal treaties” that the former Qing Dynasty was compelled to sign following military defeats.

In the late 20th century — with China unwilling to extend the lease on the New Territories, and the colony not viable without them — Britain entered into protracted and often contentious negotiations with Beijing over conditions for the return of Hong Kong to Chinese rule.

Ultimately, China took control of Hong Kong in 1997 under a “one country, two systems" arrangement that would keep the city's economic, political and judicial systems distinct from those in mainland China for 50 years. That was laid out in a 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration registered with the United Nations, although China now refuses to recognize the agreement.

HAS THIS ISSUE COME UP BEFORE?

In 1972, just months after the China seat at the United Nations was transferred to Beijing from the Republic of China government that fled to Taiwan during the civil war, the government acted to remove Hong Kong and Macao, which reverted to Chinese rule in 1999, from a U.N. list of colonies, effectively stripping them of their right to self-determination.

At a time when European nations had granted independence to other colonies, China feared the same could happen to the British and Portuguese enclaves it wanted back. “The settlement of the questions of Hong Kong and Macao is entirely within China’s sovereign right and does not at all fall under the ordinary category of ‘Colonial Territories,'" China's representative said at the time.

Mary Gallagher, who teaches Chinese studies at the University of Michigan, said then-Chinese leader Mao Zedong wanted to ensure that Hong Kong would remain part of China. “So Hong Kong moves between the Chinese empire and the British empire, but loses its right to determine its own future,” she said.

WHY IS HONG KONG CHANGING TEXTBOOKS NOW?

The new textbooks are part of broader changes to education following the 2019 protests, in which many students participated and some played leadership roles.

The texts are for liberal studies classes, which the government overhauled last year after pro-Beijing lawmakers and supporters said they encouraged opposition and activist thought. The classes now focus on themes such as national security, patriotism and identity.

The textbooks promote the official view that the protest movement was the result of foreign agitation and threatened national security. The Beijing government used such arguments to pass a sweeping National Security Law for Hong Kong in 2020 curtailing free speech, criticism of authorities and political opposition.

Authorities have launched a National Security Education Day on April 15, with students encouraged to learn more about national security and take part in educational activities that emphasize the importance of protecting China.

WHERE IS THIS LEADING?

The new textbooks are part of a push to bring Hong Kong's institutional values more closely in line with those of mainland China, especially in the areas of politics and history. Increasingly, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is imposing his vision of strongly nationalistic and increasingly authoritarian rule on the region.

China has sought to eradicate any memory of the military's 1989 bloody suppression of student-led protests centered on Beijing's Tiananmen Square, citing pandemic concerns to ban once huge public commemorations in Hong Kong on the June 4 anniversary.

“The Communist Party has a monopoly of the truth and of history in China,” said Steve Tsang, a Chinese politics specialist at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. “In the Xi approach to history, facts are merely incidental. Only interpretation matters. And only one interpretation is allowed.”

Translation

北京(美聯社)- 香港正準備推出新的中學教科書,否認中國領土曾經是英國的殖民地。中國共產黨統治者說,這座半自治城市和附近的前葡萄牙殖民地澳門只是被外國勢力佔領,中國從未放棄對它們的主權。

這對中國來說並不是一個新的立場,但此舉進一步證明了北京對在 2019 年發生的,要求民主的大規模抗議活動後加強對香港的控制,加強其對歷史和事件的解釋及灌輸愛國主義的決心。

美聯社看到的一本新教科書說:香港自古就是中國領土” ; “雖然香港在鴉片戰爭後被英國占領,但它仍然是中國領土。

據香港《南華早報》本週早些時候報導,這是向學校提供的四套教科書之一,以取代目前使用的教科書,所有教科書都陳述了相同的立場。

香港曾是殖民地嗎?

1841 年至 1997 年香港為英國殖民地,直至 1997 年移交中國統治,期間日本在 1941 年至 1945 年佔領香港除外。香港的殖民地地位, 19 世紀第一次和第二次鴉片戰爭時, 由两次分簽署結束戰爭的條約所致。之後 中國在1898 年批出 99 年的新界租約,大大擴大了英國殖民地規模。

1949 年在內戰期間奪取政權的中國共產黨表示,它從未承認前清朝在軍事戰敗後被迫簽署的所謂不平等條約

20 世紀後期 - 中國不願延長新界的租約,而沒有新界,這個殖民地就無法生存 - 英國與北京就香港回歸中國統治條件進行了漫長, 且經常在爭議中的談判。

最終,中國在 1997 年根據 一個國家、兩個制度的安排控制了香港,這將使香港的經濟、政治和司法制度與中國大陸不同長達 50 年。這安排見於1984年的中英聯合聲明中, 並在聯合國註冊了,儘管中國現在拒絕承認該協議。

這個問題以前出現過嗎?

1972年,於內戰期間逃往台灣的中華民國政府將聯合國中國席位轉移到北京幾個月之後,中國政府採取行動, 從聯合國的一殖民地名單中, 撤除香港和澳門,並於1999年恢復中國統治,這實際上剝奪了他們的自決權。

在歐洲國家授予其他殖民地獨立的時候,中國擔心同樣的事情會發生在它想要收回的英國和葡萄牙的佔地上。中國代表當時表示:香港和澳門問題的解決完全在中國的主權範圍內,完全不屬於 殖民地的一般範疇

在密歇根大學教授中國研究的 Mary Gallagher說,當時的中國領導人毛澤東希望確保香港仍然是中國的一部分。 :所以香港在中華帝國和大英帝國之間轉移,卻失去了決定自己未來的權利

為什麼香港現在改變教科書?

新教科書是 2019 年抗議活動後教育變革更廣泛的一部分,當時許多學生參加了抗議活動,其中一些學生發揮了領導作用。

這些課本是用於通識教育課程的,在親北京的立法者和支持者表示通識教育鼓勵反對派和激進主義思想後,政府去年對其進行了徹底改革。這些課程現在側重於國家安全、愛國主義和身份認同等主題。

教科書宣揚了官方觀點,即抗議運動是外國煽動的結果,威脅到國家安全。北京政府利用這些論點在 2020 年通過了一項全面的香港國安法,以限制言論自由及對當局的批評和政治反對派。

當局於415動了國家安全教育日,鼓勵學生更多地了解國家安全,並參加強調保護中國重要性的教育活動。

 這通往哪裡?

新教科書旨在推動香港的制度價值觀更接近中國大陸的價值觀,特別是在政治和歷史領域。中國領導人習近平越來越多地將他的強烈民族主義和日益獨裁統治的願景強加於該地區。

中國一直試圖消除對軍隊 1989 年血腥鎮壓以北京天安門廣場為中心的學生領導的抗議活動的任何記憶,並以擔憂病毒大流行為理由, 禁止曾經常有的在 6 4 日週年紀念日在香港舉行大型公眾記念活動。

倫敦東方和非洲研究學院的中國政治專家 Steve Tsang :黨壟斷了中國的真相和歷史”; “在習近平的歷史觀中,事實只是偶然的。 只有解釋才是重要。 而且只允許一種解

So, Hong Kong is introducing new middle school textbooks that will deny the Chinese territory was ever a British colony. The new textbooks are part of a push to bring Hong Kong's institutional values more closely in line with those of mainland China, and to impose a strongly nationalistic and increasingly authoritarian rule in Hong Kong.

2022年6月28日 星期二

State media: China's third aircraft carrier launched, named "Fujian"

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

中国3隻目の空母が進水、「福建」と命名 国営メディア

2022.06.17 Fri posted at 17:30 JST

(CNN) 中国は17日、同国で最も先進的な3隻目の空母を上海の江南造船所で進水させた。国営新華社通信が伝えた。

新華社によると、「福建」と命名された同艦は中国国内で設計・製造された初のカタパルト式空母となる。

米シンクタンクの戦略国際問題研究所(CSIS)によると、前2隻の「遼寧」と「山東」では甲板に傾斜を付けるスキージャンプ方式が使われており、今回のカタパルト補助式の射出システムは大きな改良点といえる。

新たなカタパルトシステムは米空母で使用されているものと同様、中国が様々な艦載機をより早く、より多くの弾薬を搭載した状態で射出することを可能にする。

新華社は同艦の満載排水量を8万トン超と報道。進水後に係留試験と航行試験を行うと報じた。

CSIS中国プロジェクトのマシュー・フナイオレ上級研究員は以前、CNNに対し、今回の新造艦は中国軍にとって初の現代型空母への挑戦になるとの見方を示していた。

中国は空母に沿岸部の省名を付けている。遼寧は北東部、山東は東部の省だ。南東部の福建省は台湾に最も近い省であり、両地を隔てる海峡は最も狭いところでは128キロに満たない。

中国共産党は台湾を統治したことは一度もないものの、台湾に主権が及ぶと主張。習近平(シーチンピン)国家主席は中国と台湾の「再統一」は避けられないと繰り返し発言しており、武力行使も排除していない。

中国はいまや世界最大の海軍を保有する。空母は本質的に移動式の航空基地であり、航空機や兵器を迅速かつ長期的に戦域展開することを可能にする。

Translation

(CNN) On the 17th, China launched its third most advanced aircraft carrier at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai. The state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.

According to the Xinhua News Agency, the ship named "Fujian" would be the first catapult-type aircraft carrier designed and manufactured in China.

According to a US think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the previous two ships the "Liaoning" and "Shandong" tilted the deck to use the ski-jump method. It could be said that the catapult-assisted ejection system was large improvement point.

The new catapult system, similar to those used on US aircraft carriers, could allow China to launch various carrier-based aircraft faster and with more ammunition loaded on the plane.

Xinhua reported that the ship's full displacement would be over 80,000 tons. It was reported that mooring and navigation tests would be conducted after launch.

Matthew Funaiole, senior researcher at the CSIS China Project, had previously told CNN that the new ship would be the first challenge for the Chinese military to a modern aircraft carrier.

China had given the aircraft carrier the name of a coastal province. Liaoning was the northeastern province and Shandong was the eastern province. Fujian Province in the southeast was the closest province to Taiwan, and the strait that separated these two regions was less than 128 km at the narrowest point.

The Chinese Communist Party had never ruled Taiwan, but claimed that it had sovereignty right over Taiwan. President Xi Jinping had repeatedly stated that a "reunification" between China and Taiwan is inevitable, and has not ruled out the use of force.

China now had the largest navy in the world. Aircraft carriers were essentially mobile air bases that could allow aircraft and weapons to be quickly deployed and in long-term battlefield expansion.

So, China launches its third aircraft carrier at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai that will use a new catapult system. China is trying to catch up with the US in terms of aircraft carrier design and in number.

2022年6月26日 星期日

美國稱台灣海峽是國際水道: 去否定中國說法

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

U.S. rebuffs China by calling Taiwan Strait an international waterway

Tue, June 14, 2022, 5:59 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The United States on Tuesday backed Taiwan's assertion that the strait separating the island from China is an international waterway, a further rebuff to Beijing's claim to exercise sovereignty over the strategic passage.

The Taiwan Strait has been a frequent source of military tension since the defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war with the communists, who established the People's Republic of China.

In recent years, U.S. warships, and on occasion those from allied nations such as Britain and Canada, have sailed through the strait, drawing Beijing's anger.

On Monday, China's Foreign Ministry said the country "has sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait" and called it "a false claim when certain countries call the Taiwan Strait 'international waters'."

Commenting on Tuesday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said in an email to Reuters: "The Taiwan Strait is an international waterway, meaning that the Taiwan Strait is an area where high seas freedoms, including freedom of navigation and overflight, are guaranteed under international law."

The world has "an abiding interest in peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and we consider this central to the security and prosperity of the broader Indo-Pacific region," Price added.

He reiterated U.S. concerns about China's "aggressive rhetoric and coercive activity regarding Taiwan" and said the United States "would continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, and that includes transiting through the Taiwan Strait."

Earlier on Tuesday, Taiwan Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou called China's position a "fallacy."

On Wednesday, Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang said the strait was by "no means China's inland sea".

"China's ambition to swallow up Taiwan has never stopped or been concealed; the Taiwan Strait is a maritime area for free international navigation," he told reporters.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office said the government in Taipei was "cooperating with external forces to hype up the issue".

This "harms the interests of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and betrays the interests of the Chinese nation - it is despicable," office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang said in Beijing.

China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control and views the island as an inherent part of Chinese territory.

Taiwan says China has no right to speak for it or claim sovereignty, saying only Taiwan's people can decide their own future and that the People's Republic of China has never controlled any part of the island.

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom, Humeyra Pamuk and Michael Martina; Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard in Taipei and Beijing newsroom; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)

Translation

華盛頓(路透社)- 美國周二支持台灣關於將台灣與中國隔開的海峽是國際水道的說法,這是美國進一步否定對北京聲稱對該戰略通道行使主權

1949 年与共戰失敗的中華民國政府逃往台灣後, 黨建立中華人民共和國,台灣海峽一直是頻密軍事緊張的根源。

近年來,美國軍艦,有時還有來自英國和加拿大等盟國的軍艦,曾駛過海峽,引起了北京的憤怒。

週一,中國外交部表示,中國 對台灣海峽擁有主權、司法權和管轄權 , 並稱其 某些國家稱台灣海峽為 國際水域是一種不正確主張

美國國務院發言人 Ned Price 週二在給路透社的一封電子郵件中發表評論說:台灣海峽是一條國際水道,這意味著台灣海峽是一個根據國際公約保障包括航行和飛越自由在內的公海自由的區域。

Price 補充說,世界 對台灣海峽的和平與穩定有著持久的利益,我們認為這對更廣泛的印太地區的安全與繁榮至關重要

他重申了美國對中國 在台灣問題上的咄咄逼人的言辭和脅迫活動的擔憂,並表示美國 將繼續在國際法允許的任何地方飛行、航行和行動,包括通過台灣海峽

週二早些時候,台灣外交部發言人 Joanne Ou 稱中國的立場是 謬論

週三,台灣總理蘇貞昌表示,海峽 絕不是中國的內海

他告訴記者: 中國吞併台灣的野心從未停止或隱瞞;台灣海峽是國際自由航行的海域

中國台灣事務辦公室表示,台北政府正在 與外部勢力合作炒作

這辦公室發言人馬曉光在北京說這 “損害了海峽兩岸同胞的利益,背叛了中華民族的利益,這是卑鄙的”

中國從未放棄使用武力將台灣置於其控制之下,並將台灣視為中國固有領土的部分。

台灣稱中國無權為其發言或宣稱主權,稱只有台灣人民才能決定自己的未來,及中華人民共和國從未控製過台灣的任何一部分。

It is shocking to know that China's Foreign Ministry has said that China "has sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait”. I think  Japan is also eager to make sure that the status quo of Taiwan Strait is maintained, and to turn this Strait into China's inland sea is unthinkable to me.

2022年6月24日 星期五

普京的破碎了市場聯繫使價值數十億美元的交易陷入困境

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Putin’s Broken Market Link Puts Trades Worth Billions in Limbo

Giulia Morpurgo and Lyubov Pronina

Tue, June 14, 2022, 9:00 PM

(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s central bank is keeping a close watch on a key piece of market infrastructure targeted by European Union sanctions.

Asked after Friday’s interest-rate decision whether the Bank of Russia would join potential lawsuits to fight a freeze on the National Settlement Depository, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said officials are “working on the best strategy and tactics.”

Few institutions better represent Russia’s sudden financial isolation since the invasion of Ukraine than the NSD. After the attack, more than a hundred billion dollars’ worth of stocks and bonds were left blocked after the world’s biggest settlement systems froze its accounts, according to estimates by the ITI Capital brokerage in Moscow.

And since the European Union blacklisted the NSD directly at the start of June, there’s little chance transactions with those assets will be freed up anytime soon.

Here’s a closer look at Russia’s crumbling market bridge:

Foreign Ties

Housed in modern offices opposite Moscow’s 19th century Yelokhovsky Cathedral, the NSD established links over the years with foreign clearing houses, custodian banks and international securities regulators.

That gave overseas investors easy access to Russian assets, helping curb trading overheads and pushing down the cost of capital for local corporations and the government.

But the wave of international sanctions and local capital controls that followed President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine have cut Russia off from financial markets, pushing the government toward its first foreign default in a century.

The NSD’s accounts at the world’s biggest settlement systems -- Euroclear Bank SA and Clearstream Banking AG -- are the source of most pain.

Pimco Warned US Treasury That Russia Sanctions Will Hit Pensions

Impact of War

In the wake of the Feb. 24 attack, Euroclear froze transactions with the NSD as it vetted the depository to make sure it wasn’t in breach of sanctions, according to people familiar with the situation, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the details aren’t public.

The processing of trades slowed almost to a standstill, and then at the start of this month, the European Union blacklisted the NSD outright.

The depository was deemed to be “directly and indirectly enabling” the Russian government, because of the “high degree” of state control over its owner -- the Moscow Exchange -- the EU said in its official journal.

Euroclear implemented an asset freeze on the NSD in response, halting the due diligence it had been conducting. For its part, the NSD promptly suspended transactions in euros, announcing an “emergency” situation.

Scope of the Damage

The limits on the NSD’s accounts froze securities worth tens of billions of dollars.

Non-residents had exposure equivalent to about $48 billion of Russian equity and $38 billion of fixed income -- mostly government ruble bonds known as OFZs -- via the NSD, according to Iskander Lutsko, chief investment strategist at ITI, one of Russia’s top ten brokerages. Euroclear has also blocked about $27 billion of foreign assets, principally shares, held by Russians, Lutsko said.

Despite the sanctions, Russian companies and the state have so far managed to pay investors about $6.5 billion in coupons and maturities since early March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. Locals relying on their NSD account at Euroclear to access those payments have missed out.

The conversion of depository receipts of Russian companies listed abroad into local shares has also stopped due to the block on the NSD.

Bottleneck

Before the most recent restrictions, transactions involving assets denominated in currencies other than the ruble were eligible for settlement provided the securities or the counter-parties involved weren’t the subject of EU penalties, according to Euroclear’s website.

For each deal with a Russian counter-party, Euroclear required a so-called MT 599 attestation to prove no penalties were breached and due diligence had been performed.

While this allowed unsanctioned Russian banks and market participants with their own Euroclear accounts to keep settling their trades, those going via the NSD’s accounts at Euroclear were blocked.

OFZ Optimism

Russia’s isolation contrasts with the optimism of a decade ago, when the Russian Finance Ministry was pushing ahead with a direct link to international clearing houses for its local OFZ bonds.

Eventually, Euroclear started direct settlement of Russian ruble-denominated government debt in February 2013, opening the market to foreign investors, who no longer needed to trade via local brokers.

Access to municipal and corporate debt markets followed in the months after, while it took several years more for global custodian banks to be able to open direct accounts at the NSD.

Translation

(彭博社)- 俄羅斯央行正在密切關注被歐盟制裁針對的一個關鍵市場基礎設施​​

在周五的利率決定後,當被問及俄羅斯央行是否會加入潛在訴訟以對抗 國家結算存管處 (NSD) 的被凍結時,行長 Elvira Nabiullina 表示,官員們正在制定最佳戰略和策略

很少有機構能比 NSD 更能代表俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後突然陷入的金融孤立。據莫斯科的 ITI Capital 經紀公司估計,在入侵發生後,全球最大的結算系統凍結了其賬戶,導致價值超過 1000 億美元的股票和債券被凍結。

而且由於歐盟在 6 月初直接將 NSD 列入黑名單,因此與這些資產進行的交易幾乎不可能很快被釋放。

以下仔細看看俄羅斯搖搖欲墜的市場聯繫:

外交連係

NSD 位於莫斯科 19 世紀 Yelokhovsky 大教堂對面的現代化辦公室內,多年來與外國票據交換所、託管銀行和國際證券監管機構建立了聯繫。

這使海外投資者可以輕鬆獲得俄羅斯資產,幫助當地公司和政府控制交易成本費及降低資產成本

但是,在普京總統入侵烏克蘭之後,國際制裁和地方資本管制浪潮切斷了俄羅斯與金融市場的聯繫,將政府推向了一個世紀以來的首次外國違約。

NSD 在全球最大結算系統中的賬 - Euroclear Bank SA Clearstream Banking AG, 是最痛苦的根源。

PIMCO 警告美國財政部,制裁俄羅斯將打擊養老金

戰爭的影響

據知情人以資料是非開為理由匿用名透露,在 2 24 日的入侵事件發生後,Euroclear因為要對存管處進行了審查,以確保它沒有違反制裁規定, 而凍結了與 NSD 的交易。

處理交易的速度幾乎停滯不前,然後在本月初,歐盟將 NSD 徹底列入黑名單。

歐盟在其官方公報中表示,由於俄國政府對 NSD 擁有者 - 莫斯科交易所 高度控制,該存管機構被認為 直接和間接地支持俄羅斯政府。

作為回應,Euroclear NSD 實施了資產凍結,停止了其一直在進行的業務綜合評估。NSD就其本身而言,立即暫停了歐元交易,宣佈出現緊急情況。

損害範圍

NSD 戶的限制凍結了價值數百億美元的證券。

ITI 首席投資策略師 Iskander Lutsko 表示,非居民通過 NSD 持有約 480 億美元的俄羅斯股票和 380 億美元的固定收益, 主要是被稱為 OFZ 的政府盧布債券,ITI是俄羅斯十大券商之一。 Lutsko 說,Euroclear 還凍結了俄羅斯人持有的約 270 億美元的外國資產,主要是股票。

據彭博新聞社彙編的數據顯示,儘管受到製裁,俄羅斯公司和國家自3月初以來能向投資者支付了約 65 億美元的票息和到期債券。當地依靠在 Euroclear NSD 戶來獲得這些付款的人沒有這機會。

由於 NSD 的封鎖,俄羅斯境外上市公司的存託憑證轉換為當地股票的活動也已停止。

樽頸

根據 Euroclear 的網站,在最近的限制之前,涉及以盧布以外的貨幣計價的資產的交易有資格進行結算,但前提是所涉及的證券或交易對手不是歐盟處罰的對象。

對於與俄羅斯交易對手的每筆交易,Euroclear 都需要所謂的 MT 599 證明,以證明沒有違反任何處罰, 並且已經進行了應有的調查。

雖然這樣會允許擁有自己的 Euroclear 戶的未受制裁的俄羅斯銀行和市場參與者繼續結算他們的交易,但那些通過 NSD Euroclear 戶的交易就被阻止了。

OFZ 樂觀

俄羅斯的孤立與十年前的樂觀情緒形成鮮明對比,當時俄羅斯財政部正在推進與國際清算所的直接聯繫,以處理其當地的 OFZ 債券。

最終,Euroclear 2013 2 月開始直接結算俄羅斯盧布計價的政府債務,對外國投資者開放市場,不再他們需要通過當地經紀進行交易。

進入市政和企業債務的市場在幾個月後開放,而全球託管銀行則需要幾年時間才能在 NSD 開設直接賬戶。

So, since the invasion of Ukraine few institutions better represent Russia’s sudden financial isolation  than the NSD. After Putin’s aggression into Ukraine, more than a hundred billion dollars’ worth of stocks and bonds were left blocked after the world’s biggest settlement systems froze NSD accounts. Let’s see whether this financial sanction will force Putin to reconsider his aggression.

Translation note:

1.  PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Company, LLC) is an American investment management firm focusing on active fixed income management worldwide.

 2.  OFZ are coupon-bearing federal loan bonds issued by the Russian government.

2022年6月23日 星期四

Ukraine's EU Membership - European Commission will soon conclude its opinion

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ウクライナのEU加盟 ヨーロッパ委員会が近く意見書まとめる

2022612 121

EU=ヨーロッパ連合のフォンデアライエン委員長はウクライナの加盟申請について、EUの執行機関・ヨーロッパ委員会が近く意見書をまとめるという見通しを示しました。この意見書を判断材料にEUすべての加盟国が同意すれば、ウクライナは交渉開始の前提となる「加盟候補国」として認められることになります。

EUのフォンデアライエン委員長は11日、ウクライナの首都キーウを訪れ、ゼレンスキー大統領と会談したあと共同で記者会見しました。

ゼレンスキー大統領は「ロシアはヨーロッパを分断し弱体化させようとしており、ヨーロッパ全体が標的となっている」と述べたうえで、EU加盟を申請したウクライナを「加盟候補国」として認めるよう訴えました。

EUの執行機関・ヨーロッパ委員会は現在ウクライナの加盟申請についての意見書をまとめていて、フォンデアライエン委員長は「きょうの議論で来週末までに作業を終えることが可能になった」と述べ、近く意見書をまとめるという見通しを示しました。

この意見書を判断材料にEUの加盟国すべてが同意すれば、ウクライナは交渉開始の前提となる「加盟候補国」として認められることになります。

EU加盟国は今月下旬の首脳会議で、ウクライナの加盟申請をめぐって協議する見通しです。

Translation

 EU - European Union Chairman Von der Leyen indicated that the EU executive body, the European Commission, would soon conclude a written opinion on the application for membership in Ukraine. If all EU member states agreed on this opinion as a basis for judgment, Ukraine would be recognized as a "Candidate member state" that was a prerequisite for the start of negotiations.

EU President Ursula von der Leyen visited Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine on the 11th, and after meeting with President Zelensky, held a joint press conference.

President Zelensky said, "Russia is trying to divide and weaken Europe, and the whole of Europe is targeted," and appealed to recognize Ukraine, which applied for EU membership, as a "candidate country".

The EU executive body, the European Commission, was currently compiling a written opinion on Ukraine's application for accession, and Chairman Von der Leyen said, "Today's discussions have made it possible to finish the work by next weekend", showing a prospect of compiling a written opinion soon. 

If all EU member states agreed on this opinion as a basis for judgment, Ukraine would be recognized as a "candidate country" that was a prerequisite for starting the negotiations.

EU member states were expected to discuss Ukraine's application for membership at a summit meeting later this month.

So, EU member states are expected to discuss Ukraine's application for membership at a summit meeting soon. In February when Russia invaded Ukraine, Ukraine’s application for EU membership was viewed by Putin as a move that had to be stopped. Now over one hundred days into the aggression, Putin has softened its stance in not insisting this. I am wondering why.

2022年6月22日 星期三

Putin likens himself to Peter the Great - suggests that the invasion of Ukraine is justified

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

プーチン氏、自身をピョートル大帝になぞらえる ウクライナ侵攻は正当と示唆

2022.06.11 Sat posted at 09:25 JST

 (CNN) ロシアのプーチン大統領は9日、17世紀後半から18世紀にかけてのロシアの君主ピョートル大帝に自らを重ね合わせ、ウクライナ侵攻を正当化する姿勢を見せた。

プーチン氏はこの日、初代ロシア皇帝のピョートル大帝を扱った展覧会を訪問。ピョートル大帝による18世紀のスウェーデンとの戦争を現在のウクライナ軍事侵攻になぞらえようと試みた。

プーチン氏は発言の中で、ピョートル大帝は征服を試みたわけではなく、ロシアに正当に帰属する領土を巡って戦っていたとの見方を示した。

そのうえで今日のウクライナ戦争との類似点を指摘し、ウクライナは正統な主権国家ではなく、実際はロシア領なのだから最近の軍事行動は正当化されると示唆した。

プーチン氏は「なぜピョートル大帝はあそこに行ったのか」と問いかけ、「彼は(領土を)奪い返し強固にした。我々の運命も『奪い返し強固にする』することにあるようだ」と主張した。

さらに、欧州諸国は当初、サンクトペテルブルクをロシア領と認めていなかったと指摘。クリミア半島を含め、欧米諸国がロシアの領土と認めていないウクライナの占領地での状況と同一視した。

Translation

(CNN) On the 9th, Russian President Vladimir Putin superimposing himself on the Russian monarch Peter the Great lived in the latter half of the 17th century to the 18th century to show a posture to justify the invasion of Ukraine

Putin on that day visited an exhibition of Peter the Great, the first Russian emperor. He attempted to compare Peter the Great's war with Sweden in the 18th century to the current military invasion of Ukraine.

Putin said in his statement that Peter the Great was not trying to conquer, but was fighting for a territory that was legitimately owned by Russia.

He then pointed out similarities to today's Ukrainian war, suggesting that recent military action was justified because Ukraine was not an orthodox sovereign state, but actually a Russian territory.

Putin asked, "Why did Peter the Great go there?" He insisted, "He regained and strengthened (territory). Our destiny seems to be to 'regain and strengthen'."

He further added that European countries did not initially recognize St. Petersburg as Russian territory. I equated it with the situation in the occupied territories of Ukraine, which Western countries did not recognize as Russian territory, including the Crimean Peninsula.

              So, Putin equates his occupying of the Ukrainian territories to the act of Peter the Great. Putin has an interesting view about European history when he said that Russia’s destiny seems to be to 'regain and strengthen' like Perter the Great. I prefer comparing his aggression in 2022 in Ukraine to Hitler’s occupation of the Rhineland on March 7, 1936. Should Hitler’s aggression have been stopped, there would be no WWII.

2022年6月21日 星期二

China and Cambodia start renovation work of naval base - appeal to "Iron wall" relationship

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

中国とカンボジア、海軍基地の改修工事に着手 「鉄壁」の関係アピール

2022.06.10 Fri posted at 15:30 JST

(CNN) 中国とカンボジアの当局者らがこのほど、前者の出資によるカンボジア南部の海軍基地の着工式に出席した。中国の駐カンボジア大使はこうした軍事面での協力を「鉄壁のパートナーシップ」の一環と形容するが、中国軍の拠点拡大の兆候だとして警戒する見方も出ている。

カンボジアの当局者によると、同国のリアム海軍基地の改修工事は中国からの無償の資金協力を活用して行われる。西側諸国は中国政府の動きについて、タイ湾に位置する同基地を軍事利用しているのではないかと懸念を表明している。

カンボジアのティア・バン国防相はこうした見方を一蹴。着工式の中で、計画は同国憲法に沿ったものだと強調した。憲法では外国の軍事基地を国内に置くのを禁じている。またカンボジアは他国からの開発支援を受け入れる考えだとも明言した。

国営通信社AKPの報道によると、バン氏はカンボジアの国民と領土、主権を守るため基地の改修が必要との認識を表明。計画は「近代化」を念頭に置いたものであり、乾ドック、埠頭(ふとう)、船台といった設備の建設・改修工事を含むと述べたという。

一方、中国の王文天駐カンボジア大使は着工式で、基地の改修は「いかなる第三者も標的としておらず、両軍の実際的な協力の一段の緊密化に貢献するだろう」と発言。「鉄壁のパートナーシップの強固な柱」として、両国の軍事協力は双方の国益の基盤をなすとの認識を示した。AKPが伝えた。

リアム海軍基地はカンボジアの南端付近にあり、南シナ海と近い戦略的要衝。同基地における中国の役割に対しては、近年米国政府が軍事拠点の拡張という観点から厳しい視線を注いでいた。

米国務省によれば、シャーマン副長官は中国の同基地での軍駐留や施設建設について、カンボジアの副首相や外相との先月の会談で改めて懸念を伝えたという。

近年経済と外交における関係強化を進めている中国、カンボジア両政府は、こうした懸念に強く反発。今週には中国が自国の海軍のための施設を同基地に建設しているとの報道を否定していた。

現在のところ、中国軍の海外基地があるのはアフリカのジブチのみとなっている。

Translation

(CNN) Chinese and Cambodian officials had recently attended a ground-breaking ceremony for a naval base in southern Cambodia funded by the former. China's ambassador to Cambodia described this military cooperation as part of an "iron-walled partnership," but some people were wary of it as a sign of a Chinese military base expansion.

According to Cambodian officials, the renovation of the country's Ream Naval Base would be carried out using free grant aid from China. Western nations had expressed concern over the Chinese government's move in that it might be using a base in the Gulf of Thailand for military purposes.

Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Banh dismissed this view. In the ground-breaking ceremony, he emphasized that the plan was in line with the country's constitution. The constitution prohibited the establishment of foreign military bases in the country. It also stated that Cambodia intended to accept development support from other countries.

According to a report by the Cambodian state news agency AKP, Mr. Banh expressed his recognition that the base needed to be renovated to protect the Cambodian people, territory and sovereignty. He said the plan had "modernization" in mind, and included the construction and refurbishment of equipment such as dry docks, wharfs and slipways.

Meanwhile, China's Ambassador to Cambodia, Wang Wen Tian (王文天), ​​said at the ground-breaking ceremony that the renovation of the base "whatsoever will not target at any third party and will contribute to further closer practical cooperation between the two forces." He acknowledged that military cooperation between the two countries would form the basis of both national interests, as "a strong pillar of the iron-walled partnership." This was reported by AKP.

The Ream Naval Base was located near the southern tip of Cambodia and was a strategic point close to the South China Sea. In recent years, the US government had been paying close attention to China's role at the base from the perspective of military base expansion.

According to the U.S. Department of State, Deputy Secretary of State Sherman reiterated concerns at last month's talks with the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Cambodia about China’s military presence and facility construction at the base.

The Chinese and Cambodian governments, which had been strengthening relations between the countries in economy and diplomacy in recent years, strongly opposed these concerns. This week it denied reports that China was building a facility for its navy at the base.

At present, the only overseas base for Chinese army was in Djibouti in Africa.

So, the Ream Naval Base is located near the southern tip of Cambodia and is a strategic point close to the South China Sea where China has territorial disputes with many countries in the region. Against the background that China is building more and more aircraft carriers, the US government is paying close attention to this base from the perspective of China’s military base expansion.

2022年6月20日 星期一

China: Cash or "spiritual" rewards in return for secretly reporting people threatening national security

Recentlty CNN.co.jp reported the following:

国家安全脅かす人物の密告募る、見返りに現金または「精神的」報酬 中国

2022.06.09 Thu posted at 11:13 JST

  香港(CNN) 中国政府が市民に対し、国家の安全を脅かす人物に関する情報を提供すれば最大で10万人民元(約200万円)以上の報奨金を支払うと持ちかけている。中国政府は外国のスパイや「敵対勢力」の脅威が増大しているとして、そうした勢力を排除する姿勢を強めている。

国家安全省の6日の発表によると、重大な情報の提供者には表彰状という「精神的報酬」、または現金による「物質的報酬」を進呈する。

報奨金の金額は、情報の価値に応じて1万元から10万元以上まで4段階に分けられている。

密告者は関与した人物や行為について具体的な情報を提供する必要があり、その情報は当局にとって新しいものでなければならない。報告は対面でも、ネット経由でも、国家安全保障ホットライン経由でも受け付ける。

中国では2017年に北京市が、スパイ摘発に協力した人物に最大で50万元の報奨金を支払う制度を導入。国営メディアによると、1年以内に5000件近い情報が寄せられ、研究者やタクシー運転手など幅広い情報提供者に報奨金が支払われた。

国家安全省の担当者は国営紙に対し、「この措置の制度化は、国家安全保障の取り組みを支持・支援しようという国民の熱意をかき立て、国民の心、士気、知恵、力を広く結集させる一助となる」とコメントした。

中国政府や国営メディアは、中国が「敵対的な外国勢力」によって常に脅威にさらされていると強調してきた。

国家安全省の担当者は「中国の国家安全保障は、重大かつ複雑な状況に直面している。特に外国の情報機関や敵対勢力は潜入・スパイ活動を著しく増大させ、多様な手段を用いて標的を拡大し、中国国家の安全に深刻な脅威をもたらしている」と述べている。

Translation

Hong Kong (CNN) - The Chinese government would offer citizens a bounty of up to RMB 100,000 (about 2 million yen) if they provided information on people who threatened national security. The Chinese government had stepped up its stance to eliminate foreign espionage and "hostile forces" as threats were increasing.

According to the announcement on the 6th of the National Security Ministry, the provider of important information would be presented with a "spiritual reward" called a certificate of commendation, or a "material reward" in cash.

The amount of the bounty was divided into four stages from 10,000 yuan to 100,000 yuan or more according to the value of the information.

The informer needed to provide specific information about the person or act involved, and that information had to be new to the authorities. Reports were accepted face-to-face, online, and via the National Security Hotline.

In China, in 2017, Beijing introduced a system to pay up to 500,000 yuan incentives to those who cooperated in the detection of spies. According to state media, nearly 5,000 pieces of information were received within a year, and incentives were paid to a wide range of informants such as researchers and taxi drivers.

A person in charge of the Ministry of National Security told the state newspaper that "The institutionalization of this measure will arouse the people's enthusiasm to support and assist national security efforts, and will broadly help mobilize the people's hearts, morale, wisdom and power.”

The Chinese government and state media had emphasized that China was constantly under threat from "hostile foreign forces."

A National Security ministry official said "China's national security faces a serious and complex situation. Especially foreign intelligence and hostile forces infiltration, espionage have significantly increased, and expanding its target using a variety of means, it is posing a serious threat to the security of the Chinese state. "

So, the Chinese government will offer citizens a bounty of up to RMB 100,000 (about 2 million yen) for information on threats related to national security. China feels that its national security is facing a serious and complex situation due to foreign intelligence and hostile forces infiltration, and that espionage has significantly increased. I am wondering where these spies come from.

2022年6月19日 星期日

US Treasury bans domestic investors from buying Russian stocks and bonds

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

米財務省、国内投資家によるロシア株・債券の購入を禁止

2022.06.09 Thu posted at 11:19 JST

  (CNN) バイデン米政権は、米国人がロシアの株式や債券を購入することを禁止する新たな投資制限を導入した。

この禁止令は、ロシアのウクライナ侵攻に対応したもので、ロシアに対する経済的締め付けを強化するための米当局の最新の措置だ。

財務省が6日に発表した新しいガイダンスによると、米国の投資家は「ロシアの事業体が発行した新規および既存の株式と債券」の購入を禁じられる。

これまでは、米投資家はロシアの株式や債券を流通市場で購入することができた。

財務省によると、「非米国人」に対してのみだが、ロシアの株式や債券を売却することができる。また、ロシアの証券を売却する必要はなく、保有し続けることも可能だ。

加えて、米投資家はロシアの証券を保有する米国のファンドに投資することもできるが、 ただしそのロシアの証券がファンドの資産の大部分を占めていない場合に限られる。

Translation

  (CNN) The US administration of Biden had introduced new investment restrictions that banned Americans from buying Russian stocks and bonds.

The ban was in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and was the latest step by US authorities to tighten economic squeeze on Russia.

According to new guidance released by the Treasury on the 6th, US investors would be banned from buying "new and existing stocks and bonds issued by Russian entities".

So far, US investors were able to buy Russian stocks and bonds in the secondary market.

According to the Treasury, Russian stocks and bonds could be sold only to "non-Americans." It was also possible to keep holding Russian securities without the need to sell them.

In addition, US investors might invest in a US fund that held Russian securities, provided that the Russian securities did not make up the majority of the fund's assets.

              So, the US Treasury will ban Americans from buying "new and existing stocks and bonds issued by Russian entities". I am wondering how this may impact the Russian enterprises.

2022年6月18日 星期六

Moderna bivalent vaccine: an improved booster dose to strengthen immune response to Omicron strains

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

モデルナ製2価ワクチン、改良型の追加接種でオミクロン株に強い免疫反応

2022.06.09 Thu posted at 15:45 JST

 (CNN) 米モデルナは8日、新型コロナウイルスのオミクロン株に対応したワクチンを含む追加接種により、同株への強い免疫反応が得られるとの試験結果を発表した。

追加接種の試験に使われたのは、モデルナ製の現行ワクチンとオミクロン株対応のワクチン候補を合わせた「2価」ワクチン。

現行ワクチンのみ接種した場合と比べ、オミクロン株に対してより強い抗体ができたという。副反応は現行ワクチンの追加接種とほぼ同程度だった。

現在、米国内の新規感染者はほぼ全員がオミクロン株の亜種に感染している。

モデルナのバンセル最高経営責任者(CEO)は報道発表の中で、今秋の追加接種に向けた第1候補になるとの見方を示した。

バンセル氏は、今後この暫定データと分析結果を規制当局に提出し、夏の終わりには対オミクロン株を含む2価ワクチンを接種できるようにしたいと述べた。

米食品医薬品局(FDA)の諮問委員会は今月28日の会合で、秋に打つワクチンの構成を変える必要があるかどうかを検討する。

モデルナは今年4月、追加接種の候補として、従来株とベータ株に対応した同社初の2価ワクチンを紹介。オミクロンを含むすべての変異株に対し、高い抗体反応を誘導できたと発表していた。

Translation

(CNN) On the 8th, US Moderna announced the test results of a booster dose containing a vaccine corresponding to the new coronavirus Omicron strain that could provide a strong immune response to the strain.

The booster test used was a "bivalent" vaccine that combined the current Moderna vaccine with candidate vaccines for the Omicron strain.

Compared to the case of inoculating only the current vaccine, it was said that a stronger antibody against the Omicron strain was produced. The adverse reactions were about the same as the booster dose of the current vaccine.

At present, almost all new infections in the United States were infected with a variant of the Omicron strain.

Moderna CEO Bancel said in a press release that he would be the first candidate for a booster dose this fall.

Bancel said he would like to submit the interim data and analysis to regulatory agencies in the future and hoped that a bivalent vaccine containing the anti-Omicron strain could be inoculated at the end of the summer.

The US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) advisory board would meet at a meeting on the 28th of this month to consider whether it was necessary to change the composition of vaccines to be inoculated in the fall.

In April of this year, Moderna introduced the company's first bivalent vaccine compatible with conventional and Beta strains as a candidate for booster vaccination. It announced that the vaccine was able to induce a high antibody response to all mutant strains including Omicron.

              So, Moderna hopes that a bivalent vaccine containing anti-Omicron strains can be inoculated at the end of this summer. This is good news for everyone.

2022年6月17日 星期五

油輪在大西洋中部罕見地轉換俄羅斯原油貨物

Recently Yahoo New on-line reported the following:

Oil Tankers Make Rare Mid-Atlantic Switch of Russian Crude Cargo

Julian Lee

Mon, June 6, 2022, 2:07 AM

(Bloomberg) -- Shippers of Russian crude are turning to unusual methods to move cargoes displaced from Europe over much longer distances to new customers. The most recent example is a ship-to-ship transfer in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

The Aframax tanker Zhen I discharged its cargo into the supertanker Lauren II in waters 300 miles west of the island of Madeira, according to ship-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg. The transfer took place May 26 to 27.

Moving cargoes onto larger vessels is not unusual, but what is far less common is the location where it happened. Most transfers take place in sheltered waters, where the risks of oil spills are greatly reduced. Russian cargoes have been transferred to bigger ships off Skaw in Denmark, in the western Mediterranean off the Spanish North African town of Ceuta, and even in the North Sea off Rotterdam. This is the first transfer seen on the high seas.

The Zhen I has now returned to the Baltic Sea, where it’s due to load its next cargo from Primorsk, Russia, in mid-June, according to a loading program seen by Bloomberg. The Lauren II is drifting in the mid-Atlantic, possibly awaiting the transfer of another cargo. A ship as large as the Lauren II can hold as many as three cargoes of the size typically carried by a vessel like the Zhen I. That makes them a much more economic option for carrying crude over very long distances.

Self-sanctioning of Russian crude by some European refiners is already forcing greater volumes to be moved much longer distances to buyers, particularly in India. As European Union sanctions begin to bite deeper into flows to Europe, we can expect to see more Russian crude being shipped further, with the country seeking new markets for its oil. Mid-ocean cargo transfers may become more common, if buyers and sellers start to try masking the destinations of Russia’s oil exports.

Translation

(彭博社) - 俄羅斯原油的托運人正在轉向不尋常的方法,將來自歐洲的貨物用長距離運送到新送客戶處。最近的例子是大西洋中部的船對船轉運。

根據彭博社監測的船舶跟踪數據,Aframax油輪 Zhen I  號將貨物卸入在 Madeira島以西300 英里水域的超級油輪Lauren II 中。貨物轉移發生在 5 26 日至 27 日。

將貨物轉移到更大的船隻上並不罕見,但發生的地點卻不太常見。大多數轉移發生在避風水域,使石油洩漏的風險大大降低。俄羅斯的貨物已被在丹麥 Skaw 的附近轉移到大型船隻、或在西班牙北非城鎮Ceuta附近的西地中海,甚至鹿特丹附近的北海。這是第一次看到的公海上轉移。

根據彭博社看到的裝載程序,Zhen I 號現已返回波羅的海,將於 6 月中旬從俄羅斯Primorsk裝載下一批貨物。Lauren II 正在大西洋中部漂流,可能正在等待另一批貨物的轉移。像 Lauren II 這樣大的船, 最多裝載量是Zhen I通常標準裝貨物三倍。這使得它們成為更經濟的遠距離運輸原油的更經濟選擇。

一些歐洲煉油廠對俄羅斯原油的自我制裁已經迫使更多的原油運往更遠的距離,尤其是往印度。隨著歐盟開始更深入地制裁向歐洲的流動,我們可以預期看到更多的俄羅斯原油被輸出到更遠處,以為該國石油尋找新市場。如果買賣雙方開始嘗試掩蓋俄羅斯石油出口的目的地,中海貨物轉運可能會變得更加普遍。

       So, mid-ocean cargo transfers may become more common, if buyers and sellers start to try masking the destinations of Russia’s oil export. I am wondering if oil embargo is really effective. I notice similar situations happen for the embargoed Iranian oil in reaching China.

2022年6月16日 星期四

克里姆林宮稱俄羅斯不會關閉沙皇彼得的 “向歐洲之窗”

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following

Russia won't close Tsar Peter's 'window to Europe', Kremlin says

Thu, June 2, 2022, 3:52 AM

LONDON (Reuters) -The Kremlin said on Thursday that Russia did not plan to close "the window" to Europe which Tsar Peter the Great sought to open 300 years ago even though the West has imposed the most onerous sanctions in recent history over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia's Feb. 24 invasion has killed thousands, displaced 13 million and raised fears of a broader conflict between the United States and Russia, by far the world's biggest nuclear powers.

President Vladimir Putin says the West wants to destroy Russia, that the economic sanctions are akin to a declaration of economic war and that now Russia will turn towards building ties with other powers in Asia and Middle East.

Asked if Russia would now turn the clock back on Peter I's efforts to open Russia up to Europe, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "No one is planning to close anything."

Peter, who ruled from 1682 to 1725, oversaw Russia's transformation into a major European power and founded the city of Saint Petersburg, dubbed Russia's "window to Europe". He founded the Russian Empire in 1721.

Putin is a "deep connoisseur of history" and is well aware of Peter's legacy, Peskov said.

"If we are talking specifically about Peter the Great, Putin very much appreciates the role of this particular individual in the history of our country", he said.

Peter sought to import Western technology and battled against traditions which he felt were hindering the development of Russian power, though many of his reforms strengthened Russian autocracy.

Putin says the "special military operation" in Ukraine is necessary to demilitarise and "denazify" the country, and because the United States was using Ukraine to threaten Russia through NATO enlargement and Moscow had to defend against the persecution of Russian-speaking people.

Ukraine and its Western allies reject these as baseless pretexts to invade a sovereign country.

(Reporting by Reuters; editing by Guy Faulconbridge)

Translation

倫敦(路透社)- 克里姆林宮週四表示,儘管西方對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭實施了近代史上最嚴厲的製裁,但俄羅斯並不打算關閉 300 年前沙皇彼得大帝試圖打開通往歐洲的窗口

俄羅斯 2 24 日的入侵已造成數千人死亡,1,300 萬人流離失所,並引發了人們對美國和俄羅斯之間更廣泛衝突的擔憂,美國和俄羅斯是迄今為止世界上最大的核大國。

總統普京表示,西方想要摧毀俄羅斯,經濟制裁類似於宣戰,現在俄羅斯將轉向與亞洲和中東其他大國建立聯繫。

當被問及俄羅斯現在是否會倒轉彼得一世向歐洲開放俄羅斯的努力時,克里姆林宮發言人佩斯科夫: 沒有人打算關閉任何東西。

彼得大帝從 1682 年到 1725 年在位,他督導俄羅斯轉變為歐洲大國,並建立了聖彼得堡市,被稱為俄羅斯的 歐洲之窗 1721年,他建立了俄羅斯帝國。

佩斯科夫說,普京是一位 深厚的歷史專家,並且非常了解彼得的遺產。

: 如果我們專門談論彼得大帝,普京非常欣賞這個特殊人物在我國歷史上的角色。

彼得試圖引進西方技術並與傳統對抗, 他認為傳統阻礙俄羅斯的國力發展,儘管他的許多改革加強了俄羅斯的專制。

普京表示,在烏克蘭的特別軍事行動去使到該國非軍事化和去納粹化是必要的,因為美國正在利用烏克蘭通過北約擴大威脅俄羅斯,而莫斯科必須抵禦對講俄語的人的迫害。

烏克蘭及其西方盟友擯斥這些作為侵略主權國家的毫無根據的藉口。

So, President Putin says the West wants to destroy Russia, that the economic sanctions are akin to a declaration of economic war and that now Russia will turn towards building ties with other powers in Asia and Middle East. Let’s see how Putin will carry out this change in foreign policy as I think Russian needs to depend on EU in many respects.

2022年6月15日 星期三

隨著美國成為印度最大的貿易夥伴,中國敦促深化東盟關係

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China urged to deepen ASEAN ties as US becomes India's biggest trading partner

SCMP Frank Tang in Beijing and Ji Siqi

Mon, May 30, 2022, 2:30 AM

Fast growing trade between India and the United States has raised eyebrows in China, fuelling concern that the Biden administration is moving swiftly to use its new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to contain the world's No 2 economy.

China lost its title as India's biggest trading partner to the US last year, according to new data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

The value of merchandise trade between the world's two most populous countries reached a high of US$115.4 billion in the 2021-22 financial year that ended in March, an increase of 33.6 per cent from a year earlier.

But it was surpassed by trade with the US, which rose 48.3 per cent to US$119.4 billion.

Indian imports from China, mainly machines and electronics, rose 44.4 per cent to US$94.2 billion, but its China-bound shipments grew only 0.3 per cent to US$21.3 billion.

On the contrary, its exports to the US jumped 47.4 per cent from a year earlier to US$76.11 billion, while imports rose 50 per cent to US$43.31 billion.

India recorded a US$32.8 billion trade surplus from the US last year, compared with a deficit of US$72.9 billion with China.

India's top 10 trading partners were rounded out by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Singapore, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea and Australia.

"Trade between India and the US are complementary, as seen from the outsourced IT service from the Silicon Valley," said He Weiwen, a former commercial counsellor at Chinese Consulate General in San Francisco.

"It is a trend that their trade value will surpass China-India trade. However, it is far lower than China-US trade."

He, who is now a senior fellow with the Centre for China and Globalisation, a Beijing-based think tank, said China should concentrate on fixing domestic weak links and manage its relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), its top trading partner with which it has complete supply chains.

"China should also remedy the negative impact of the recent pandemic on foreign funded firms," he said.

"Competition with India and Vietnam is not the most important because their size is too small. We should do a good job on our own things first."

China was India's top trading partner from 2013-18, before being replaced by the US, then topping the list again in 2020-21.

Lu Xiang, a researcher on US issues with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China's exports to India have been affected by trade and investment restrictions from New Delhi, which have coincided with heightened tensions between the neighbours.

"But the two markets are different and the US market cannot completely replace China for India," he said.

Closer US-India ties are among a number of risks facing China. Western powers are increasingly critical of the country's trade with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, while Beijing's zero-Covid restrictions are slowing the economy and forcing investors to consider diversifying.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Pingan Securities, said China should integrate more deeply with Asean to counter Washington's Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

"[The framework] is a replacement for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership as the Biden administration tries to re-establish its influence in Indo-Pacific regions and lure members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ," he wrote in a note on Monday.

India is not a member of the China-led RCEP, but signed up for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework launched by Biden during his Asia trip last week.

 Translation

印度和美國之間快速增長的貿易在中國引起了關注,引發了人們對拜登政府正在迅速採取行動,利用其新的印太經濟框架來遏制世界第二大經濟體的擔憂。

根據印度商業和工業部的最新數據,中國去年失去了印度最大貿易夥伴的頭銜給美國。

在截至 3 月的 2021-22 財年,世界上人口最多的兩個國家之間的商品貿易額達到 1,154 億美元,同比增長 33.6%

但它被與美國的貿易所超越,增長了 48.3%,達到 1,194 億美元。

印度從中國進口的主要是機器和電子產品,增長 44.4% 942 億美元,但其對中國的出口僅增長 0.3% 213 億美元。

相反,其對美國的出口同比增長47.4%761.1億美元,而進口增長50%433.1億美元。

印度去年對美國的貿易順差為328億美元,而對中國的是貿易逆差729億美元。

印度排名前十名的貿易夥伴依次為阿拉伯聯合酋長國、沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、新加坡、香港、印度尼西亞、韓國和澳大利亞。

中國駐舊金山總領事館前商務參贊 He Weiwen 說:印美之間的貿易是互補的,從矽谷外判的 IT 服務就可以看出。

 兩國貿易超過中印貿易額是趨勢,但遠低於中美的貿易額。

He Weiwen 現在是位於北京的中國與全球化中心的智庫的高級研究員,他說中國應該集中精力解決國內的薄弱環節,並管理與東南亞國家聯盟(東盟)的關係, 中國擁有與東盟完整供應鏈的合作夥伴。

說:中國還應該彌補近期疫情對外資企業的負面影響。

與印度和越南的競爭不是最重要的,因為它們的規模太小了。我們應該先把自己的事情做好。

中國在 2013-18 年是印度最大的貿易夥伴,之後被美國取代,然後在 2020-21 年再次位居榜首。

中國社會科學院美國問題研究員 Lu Xiang 表示,中國對印度的出口受到新德里貿易和投資限制的影響,而這些限制恰逢與該鄰國之間的緊張局勢加劇。

:但這兩個市場是不同的,美國市場在印度不能完全取代中國的

更緊密的美印關係是中國面臨的眾多風險之一。在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後,西方大國越來越批評該國與俄羅斯的貿易,而北京的零疫情感染限制正在使經濟放緩並迫使投資者考慮分散投資。

平安證券首席經濟學家 Zhong Zhengsheng 表示,中國應該與東盟更深入地融合,以對抗華盛頓的印太經濟框架

週一他在一篇文章中寫道:隨著拜登政府試圖重建其在印太地區的影響力並吸引區域全面經濟夥伴關係的成員,[該框架]將取代《跨太平洋夥伴關係全面進步協議》。

印度不是中國主導的RCEP成員,但簽署了拜登上周亞洲之行期間發起的印太經濟框架

So, China's exports to India have been affected by trade and investment restrictions from New Delhi which have coincided with heightened tensions between them. India is not a member of the China-led RCEP, but has signed up for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework launched by Biden. The intention of the US to re-establish its influence in Indo-Pacific regions is clear.