為何紅黃藍白都尊重的朱鎔基

Recently Jacky Fung Chi Ching（馮智政）, a current affairs commentator on YouTube, posted the following article on Facebook:

為何紅黃藍白都尊重的朱鎔基

Jacky FUNG 馮智政

16 Aug 2026

 Books｜讀Brahm 的《朱鎔基傳：朱鎔基與現代中國的轉型》

朱鎔基逝世之後，中港都有不少文章去總結他在中國改革開放的功績。有些根據官樣文章，也有從語錄Soundbite去寫其思想，兩者敍事多是藉朱鎔基推動作者的政治主張。對於朱鎔基的經濟功績及其思路，我推薦美國學者龍安志（Laurence J. Brahm）所著的《朱鎔基傳：朱鎔基與現代中國的轉型》。龍安志曾定居中國，長年涉足國際社運、國際危機調停與政治經濟研究的工作。

雖然同樣寫朱鎔基如何處理三角債、通貨膨脹、亞洲金融危機等一連串經濟問題，不過Brahm在書裡試圖為他規劃中國從封閉經濟走向開放轉型的角色，找出理論及歷史的位置。讀畢全書，最大的感受不是人物的生平故事，也不是政策的制定過程，而是一種久違的、對歷史人物複雜性的重新認識。

坊間對朱鎔基的評價，向來存在矛盾。一方面，他是在一九八九年民運期間已經身居上海市委書記要職、其後在總理任內也打壓過民主自由。另一方面，他在國企改革、落實市場經濟規則等關鍵角色，令中國慢慢走向開放。

這種矛盾之所以難以調和，是因為今天social media的政治論述，習慣以一種二元的框架去理解歷史人物：不是民主派，就是專權者；不是改革英雄，就是體制幫兇。這種框架簡單易用，卻往往解釋不到歷史的複雜，也捕捉不到歷史的拐點。

這樣的人物，歷史上並非孤例，近如李登輝、戈爾巴喬夫、辛德勒、拉貝⋯⋯今天的網上世界，習慣了在冷氣房裡看「勇者鬥惡龍」，卻失去了對時空背景Context應有的賞析與判斷。朱鎔基之所以能在前social media時代生活過的人心目中，跨越紅黃藍白被欣賞，或許正正在於此。

❚ ❚ 一個危機四伏的年代

要理解朱鎔基的處境，必須先理解他接手的爛攤子。八九六四之後，鄧小平為了證明自己改革開放的功績，加速推動經濟轉型，並放任金融企業尋租、違規行為。在工業起飛的背後，是規模龐大的債務與過度投資泡沫：國有企業之間互相拖欠、形成「三角債」，通貨膨脹一度飆升至百分之二十一；地方政府為追增長指標，重複投資，令劣質商品堆積如山。這場危機的清理工作，最終落在朱鎔基肩上。

泡沫還泡沫，但有錢賺、有工返，只要不在自己任內爆，大可以領功之後將爛攤子推給下屆。拉丁美洲如是，英國今日政治更是如是。朱鎔基卻選擇了Take hard mode：收水、減產、解散國企、地方稅改。得罪國有企業、得罪地方官員、也令工人下崗再找工作，為的就是將中國經濟推向市場規則。

這種吃力不討好的改革，在中國的政治生態裡格外危險。《朱鎔基傳》記載，一九九二年國企化債陷入困局時，「八大元老」之一、前經濟沙皇薄一波（其子正是後來因貪腐案下台的薄熙來）曾私下發出批評條子，標題是〈問題出在政策還是政策的執行者〉，劍指朱鎔基。無論朱鎔基自己頂，還是交出屬下能幹的經濟師去頂，最終都會令政策不彰、改革不成功，為政敵遞刀子，惹來更大的危機。最終他選擇自己頂，讓石萬鵬、李劍閣、樓繼偉、王岐山這班當時圍繞在他身邊的經濟班子，繼續深化改革。

或許正是這種近乎執拗的市場信仰與改革熱誠，早在一九五八年已經令他在「反右」運動中被打成右派，被下放農村勞動五年之久。歷史往往吊詭：令他吃盡苦頭的性格，正是二十年後令他成就一番事業的性格。

❚ ❚ 信號經濟學

Brahm在《朱鎔基傳》裡以信號經濟學總結朱鎔基的成功。不只於他宣布過甚麼政策，而在於他如何Anticipate民眾理解他的政策及決心，為市場造成什麼Expectation。作者龍安志反覆點出，朱政策宣示前，都意識市場與民間會如何解讀，而這種解讀又將如何反過來影響政策成效。

「我們不再叫它三角債，誰花錢誰還錢！」「誰投資，誰付錢。不然就倒閉！」「誰的孩子誰抱走。」這些短促而近乎命令式的宣言，是精心設計的訊號，目的是向所有相關的市場參與者，國企經理、地方官員、外資銀行，傳遞一個清晰而不容誤讀的預期。98年廣信破產後，他親自在全國人大閉幕記者會上略略提到：北京不會為未經政府擔保的金融企業債務埋單。這不是一句隨口談，而是一次刻意的預期管理，重新校準市場對「政府是否包底」以及「市場規則能否依靠」的預期。

書中亦提到一個微妙的細節：在公開場合，朱鎔基總是恰如其分地提到「以江澤民為核心的」集體領導決策制，又處處談到「共產黨」是政策底氣。看似又八股又擦鞋，但書裡談到匯率、化債及市場管理的決策時，他會多透露，他的「宏觀調控」重點並不在於調控政策，而在於他如何製造市場期待，而這種期待背後有政治力量及過去政績作為擔保，配合市場「短期所要的回報」、「正面對的困難」。

同樣是共產黨政權，但他管治市場的手法不同。他不是靠槍桿子逼人就範，落個行政指令叫新東方執笠、地產商爆雷，而是像格林斯潘管理美國經濟一樣，透過清晰的規則、可預期的懲罰、以及不容妥協的底線，令市場自己選擇跟隨。

❚ ❚ 對全球化與債務，專家以外的判斷

一九九七年亞洲金融危機爆發，國際貨幣基金組織與世界銀行開出的藥方，是要求區內貨幣跟隨貶值，以刺激出口。時任世界銀行首席經濟師Joseph E. Stiglitz（他有另一本書叫《全球化的許諾與失落》又值得分享）向朱鎔基提出「擴大人民幣交易波動幅度」的建議，表面溫和，實質是要引導出貶值不可避免的局面。

他的判斷建基於中國經濟結構的具體現實：中國出口有近半原料依賴進口，貶值只會推高進口成本；出口商品中，又有近半由外資企業生產，貶值等同增加外資企業的還款負擔。在香港，港元與人民幣事實上互相盯住，一旦人民幣貶值，剛剛主權移交的香港，側面衝擊聯繫匯率。但說到底，他核心關注的是，如果再靠出口依賴、廉價貨幣，中國最終會成為全球化下的依賴國。

於是，當泰國、印尼、韓國、俄羅斯的貨幣相繼崩潰，中國寧願出口減弱，都要支撐人民幣。二〇〇〇年，朱鎔基在布魯塞爾歐盟總部向歐洲工業領袖總結這場戰役：中國之所以能夠克服危機，全靠「積極的財政擴張政策、穩健的貨幣政策和產業重組政策」。這句話背後，是正式宣佈中國背棄「華盛頓共識」教條、及「宏觀調控」成功解決經濟危機。

❚ ❚ 結語

作為一個自由經濟的信徒，當然對於朱鎔基的經濟政策有不滿的地方。尤其是，對於中國加入世貿，是否欺詐資本主義國家以自肥？從書中，他對「國家經濟復興」的執着，我相信他是有意利用世貿規則漏洞，配合中國重商主義去發展。

不過，整體而言朱鎔基在他任內10年能夠拆彈，制定發展方向，理順市場參與者重新重視規則，再對比今日各國的領袖，他的功績及歷史重要性是不容忽視。經歷過朱鎔基年代的人，無論政治立場紅黃藍白，都不約而同地懷念這位國務院總理。二元的政治框架，或許永遠無法完整地安放這樣一個人物；但歷史本身，往往正正是由這些難以歸類的人所書寫的。

(Source: https://www.patreon.com/jackyfungcc/posts/books-wei-he-lan-166817130)

              So, regarding Zhu Rongji's economic achievements and his approach, Jacky Fung highly recommend the book Zhu Rongji and the Transformation of Modern China written by American scholar Laurence J. Brahm. Although the book also covers how Zhu managed a series of economic issues—such as "triangle debt" (三角債), inflation, and the Asian financial crisis, Brahm attempts to define Zhu's role in planning China's transition from a closed economy to an open market, mapping out his theoretical and historical positioning. Jacky Fung suggests that the strongest takeaway of the book is not the subject's life story, nor the policy-making process, but rather a long-absent, renewed appreciation for the complexity of historical figures. I agree with Jacky Fung’s point of view about the complexity historical figures.

Note:

1. 《朱鎔基傳：朱鎔基與現代中國的轉型》一書的英文原名：Zhu Rongji and the Transformation of Modern China。作者是美國人 Laurence J. Brahm，中文名通常譯作 “龍安志” 。中文由丁力翻譯。香港中和出版有限公司在 2012 年出版中文版，約 360 頁，ISBN 是 9789881588104。後來這本書有第二版（2020），以及 2023 年精裝典藏版。(ChatGPT)

2.  Jacky Fung Chi Ching（馮智政）經常在網上談論香港、中國、國際政治及移民議題, 是一名研究員、政策評論員和節目主持。他生於1985年，是香港中文大學物理系畢業，後來在香港大學取得國際關係碩士。他曾經在 “香港政策研究所（Hong Kong Policy Research Institute）” 工作，主要研究中國、教育及公共政策。香港大學也曾邀請他作為講者，講談中國與世界的關係。他亦曾擔任 “DBC 數碼電台、now TV、商業電台《光明頂》” 等節目主持或評論員。他現在有自己的 Patreon，以 Jacky FUNG 馮智政的名字製作影片評論。(ChatGPT)

新研究洗脫了是那個女人導致王朝覆滅的罪名（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

New Research Absolves the Woman Blamed for a Dynasty’s Ruin (2/2)

A Chinese king’s infatuation with a woman was seen as the reason that a golden age collapsed. Evidence suggests climate change and internal strife played bigger roles.

By Andrew Higgins - Reporting from Hejia Village and Xi’an in Shaanxi Province, China

Feb. 14, 2026

Updated 4:05 a.m. ET

(continue)

Professor Shaughnessy said he had long believed that climactic events before Western Zhou collapsed “probably contributed to the fall, but there were many other reasons for it as well.”

Volcanoes spew out aerosol particles that cut sunlight and can play havoc with farming thousands of miles away. Whether an eruption “tips a dynasty over the edge,” however, depends heavily on the extent at the time of warfare and instability, Mr. Ludlow said.

“Our most interesting finding,” he said, “is not that volcanoes are implicated in dynastic change but that the impact of climatic shock depends on how stable a society was in the lead up to that shock.”

Mr. Chong, the archaeology institute director, also said that Western Zhou’s own “internal and external contradictions” were key to its downfall.

These included a steady weakening of the royal court’s control over regional rulers as ties of blood to the center were diluted by time, and also a growing conflict with rival “barbarian” powers to the northwest and southeast.

For centuries, Chinese scholars have struggled to square the Western Zhou’s sudden collapse with the glowing praise heaped upon it by Confucius. “If the Western Zhou dynasty was so perfect an age of good politics and institutions as Confucius tended to suggest, then why had it to fall, and to give rise to a time of political disorder and moral decline?” asked Li Feng, a professor of early Chinese history at Columbia University, in a 2006 book.

Yan Yongqian, a young archaeologist who is part of a team now digging up what is believed to be a side gate to the Western Zhou capital, said the excavation work had revealed evidence of the dynasty’s highly stratified and sophisticated society, as well as its darker side, including human sacrifices.

The collapse of the Western Zhou, Mr. Yan said, seems to have happened quickly, accelerated by military attack from outside against defenses weakened by internal discord. An earlier round of excavation uncovered the remains of burned ancient buildings, suggesting a violent end.

“The fall of this state was likely a very sudden event,” Mr. Yan said. Whether Bao Si, the beautiful consort, who, according to ancient legend, was conceived from dragon spittle, existed is unclear and even if she did, he added, “a single person cannot destroy a dynasty.”

Since Sima Qian wrote “Historical Records,” each new Chinese dynasty has traditionally commissioned an official history of its predecessor, enumerating supposed moral and other failings that led to its demise.

Though widely dismissed by modern scholars as fairy tales, stories about the Western Zhou king’s dynasty-destroying infatuation with Bao Si still sometimes crowd out other explanations. At a museum near the excavation site showcasing Western Zhou’s cultural achievements and its sudden demise, exhibits recount how the king grappled with natural disasters and other problems but lost power largely because of his wayward love life.

To entertain Bao Si, who was famous for her great but unsmiling beauty, the story goes, he lit beacon fires that were supposed to be used to summon help in times of emergency, a stunt that cost him his life and kingdom when a real attack came in 771 B.C.

Whether such beacons even existed, however, is disputed and Mr. Yan, the archaeologist, said the story had probably been fabricated to demonize Bao Si and cover up the dynasty’s real problems.

Mr. Chong, the Shaanxi province archaeology institute director, said: “When things go wrong you have to find someone to take responsibility,” and, in China’s patriarchal society, that person “is always a woman.” He added, “The real collapse of a society is caused by the system and its mechanisms.”

Translation

新研究洗脫了是那個女人導致王朝覆滅的罪名（2/2）

一位中國君王對一位女子的迷戀曾被認為是導致王朝鼎盛時期終結的原因。但有證據表明，氣候變遷和內部紛爭才是更重要的因素。

（繼續）

Shaughnessy教授表示，他一直認為西周滅亡前的氣候事件「可能促成了王朝的覆滅，但還有許多其他原因」。

火山爆發會噴出氣溶膠粒子，阻擋陽光，可能對數千英里外的農業造成嚴重破壞。Ludlow先生表示，火山爆發是否“足以壓垮一個王朝”，很大程度上取決於當時戰爭和動盪的程度。

他說:“我們最有趣的發現並非火山活動與王朝更迭有關，而是氣候衝擊的影響取決於社會在衝擊發生前的穩定性。”

考古研究所所長Chong先生也表示，西周自身的「內外矛盾」是其滅亡的關鍵。

這些矛盾包括：隨著血緣關係的淡化，皇室對地方統治者的控制力逐漸減弱；以及與西北和東南方的「蠻夷」勢力日益加劇的衝突。

幾個世紀以來，中國學者一直試圖拆解西周的突然滅亡與孔子對其極力讚揚的矛盾。 哥倫比亞大學早期中國歷史教授Li Feng在2006年出版的一本書中提出了這個問題:「如果西周真如孔子所言，是一個政治和制度都臻於完美的時代，那麼它為何會滅亡，並導致政治混亂和道德淪喪的局面呢？」

年輕的考古學家Yan Yongqian是目前正在挖掘相信是西周首都側門一處遺址的考古學家成員之一。他表示，挖掘工作揭示了西周社會高度分層且複雜的一面，同時也暴露了其陰暗面，例如人祭。

Yan說，西周的滅亡似乎發生得很快，外部軍事進攻加速了這一進程，而內部紛爭削弱了其防禦。先前的一輪挖掘工作發現了被焚毀的古代建築遺跡，顯示西周的滅亡是一場暴力事件。

Yan說: 「這個國家的滅亡很可能是一場非常突然的事件」。至於傳說中由龍唾液孕育而成的絕世美人褒姒是否真實存在，尚不清楚。即使褒姒存在，Yan補充道: “一個人不可能摧毀一個王朝。”

自從司馬遷寫《史記》以來，每個新的中國王朝都會按慣例委託編纂前朝的官方史書，列舉前朝的種種道德敗壞和其他導致其滅亡的罪狀。

儘管現代學者普遍認為西周王與褒姒的戀情是無稽之談，但這些故事至今仍佔據主導地位，有時甚至蓋過了其他解釋。在西周遺址附近的一座博物館裡，展出了西周的文化成就及其突然滅亡的原因，其中也講述了西周王如何應對自然災害和其他問題，最終卻因其放蕩不羈的愛情生活而失去權力。

據說，為了取悅以絕世美貌著稱卻不苟言笑的褒姒，西周王點燃了原本用於在緊急情況下求援的烽火台。西元前771年，一場真正的戰爭爆發，西周王的這一舉動最終讓他付出了生命的代價，並失去了王國。

然而，這些烽火台是否真的存在尚存爭議。考古學家Yan先生表示，這個故事很可能是為了妖魔化褒姒、掩蓋其王朝的真正問題而編造的。

陝西省考古研究所所長Chong先生說：「出了問題，總得有人承擔責任」。在中國的父權社會裡，這個人”總是女性”。他還補充說：「一個社會的真正崩潰是由其制度及其運作機制所造成的」。

              So, new researches suggest that the collapse of the Western Zhou seems to have happened quickly, accelerated by military attack from outside and weakened defenses due to internal discord. This suggestion has a wider implication in that conclusions made by previous historians in medieval China in explaining causes of a dynasty change etc. might not be as trustworthy as has been previously thought. Their conclusions might have been clouded by moral judgment held by Chinese scholars who wrote history privately or officially. Probably, their level of logical thinking was not as sophisticated as their counterparts in modern time, apparently after the arrival of Western learning in China.  Education received by scholars in those days focused more of literature learning and memorization rather than logical thinking. Also, modern historians have the benefit in getting more archeological tools to help understand historical events from different perspectives.

Note:

1. An aerosol 氣溶膠is a suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets in air or another gas. Aerosols can be generated from natural or human causes. The scientific term aerosol refers to the mixture of particulates in gas, and not to the particulate matter alone. The liquid or solid particles in an aerosol have diameters typically less than 1 μm. (Wikipedia)

新研究洗脫了是那個女人導致王朝覆滅的罪名（1/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

New Research Absolves the Woman Blamed for a Dynasty’s Ruin (1/2)

A Chinese king’s infatuation with a woman was seen as the reason that a golden age collapsed. Evidence suggests climate change and internal strife played bigger roles.

By Andrew Higgins - Reporting from Hejia Village and Xi’an in Shaanxi Province, China

Feb. 14, 2026

Updated 4:05 a.m. ET

Digging deep into a field in northwestern China, archaeologists recently uncovered chariot tracks, plumbing and the remnants of an elaborate city gate dating back more than 3,000 years — all traces of an early Chinese dynasty that has been celebrated by Confucian scholars, and also by the Communist Party, as a model of political and social harmony.

The discoveries suggest that the area that is now farmland west of the city of Xi’an, in Shaanxi Province, is part of the long-vanished capital of the Western Zhou, a dynasty exalted throughout Chinese history as the acme of good governance.

The digging, part of decades-long excavation work in the area, has also shed new light on a bigger question: If the ancient dynasty was so perfect, why did it collapse in chaos, unable to contain external and internal threats? It lasted nearly 300 years but still fell apart in 771 B.C. under pressure from “barbarian” invaders and estranged former allies.

Why seemingly robust political systems crumble has been a central preoccupation of China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, since the 1991 downfall of the Soviet Union. An avid fan of ancient history and archaeology, he visited a museum in Baoji, a city in Shaanxi near the excavation site, in 2024 and inspected ancient bronzes from the Western Zhou dynasty, including one inscribed with “zhongguo,” meaning “middle kingdom,” the earliest known written record of China’s name.

The traditional explanation for the downfall of the Western Zhou, enshrined in the first century B.C. by Sima Qian, the father of Chinese history, is that the dynasty unraveled because of a beautiful woman who bewitched and led astray its ruler, King You.

Recent archaeological and other evidence, however, has debunked this reading of dynastic decline as a morality play. Instead, the new findings highlight the frailties of a rigidly hierarchical political system grown brittle over time that could not withstand disruptions caused by climate change and internal division.

Chong Jianrong, the director of the Shaanxi Institute of Archaeology, who been hunting traces of Western Zhou’s rise and fall for decades, said the woman often blamed for the dynasty’s demise — a concubine named Bao Si — was “just a scapegoat” to explain the ruin of a supposedly golden age.

Edward L. Shaughnessy, a leading American authority on ancient China, said Bao Si’s role in the end of the dynasty “is of course just a fairy tale,” possibly concocted as part of “some sort of factional strife at the Zhou court.”

Hailed by Confucius and his followers as a model undone by lust, the dynasty produced many of the core concepts of Chinese civilization, like the “mandate of heaven,” the idea that a ruler holds power because of good governance and loses it through immoral misbehavior.

But, Mr. Chong said of the fall of Western Zhou, “this is not about a beautiful woman causing trouble.”

A recent study led by Chinese scientists in Beijing has now provided what many historians see as a more plausible theory. Using evidence collected from stalagmites, it blamed rapid climate change. Drought and unusual cold caused by a sudden change in the climate 2,800 years ago — just before the collapse of Western Zhou — played a “critical role” in the dynasty’s demise, according to a study published in Communications Earth & Environment, a sister publication to the British scientific journal Nature.

A separate study based on the analysis of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, which provided a chronology of volcanic activity over two millenniums, found that 62 of 68 Chinese dynastic houses over that period fell after one or more volcanic eruptions — a major cause of short-term climatic shocks throughout history.

Francis Ludlow, an associate professor of medieval environment history at Trinity College, Dublin, who carried out the research with Chinese and other scholars, said in a telephone interview that he had been surprised by the close correlation between volcanic activity and dynastic decline. “There were way too many eruptions just before collapse dates to be just random coincidences,” he said.

(to be continued)

Translation

新研究洗脫了是那個女人導致王朝覆滅的罪名（1/2）

一位中國皇帝對一位女性的迷戀曾被認為是導致一個黃金時代終結的原因。但有證據表明，氣候變遷和內部紛爭才是更大的因素。

考古學家近日在中國西北部的一片田野中挖掘，發現了距今3000多年的戰車痕跡、管道設施以及一座精美城門的遺跡 - 所有這些都是早期中國王朝的痕跡，該王朝曾被儒家學者和中國共產黨譽為政治和社會和諧的典範。

這些發現表明，如今位於陝西省西安市西部的農田，是早已消失的西周王朝都城的一部分。西周王朝在中國歷史上被譽為治國理政的巔峰。

這次發掘是該地區長達數十年的考古發掘工作的一部分，同時也為一個更宏大的問題提供了新的線索：如果這個古代王朝如此完美，為何最終會在混亂中崩潰，無法抵禦內外威脅？西周王朝延續了近300年，卻在西元前771年因「蠻族」入侵者和昔日盟友的關係疏遠而瓦解。

自1991年蘇聯解體以來，看似穩固的政治體系為何會崩潰，一直是中國最高領導人習近平關注的核心議題。作為一名古代歷史和考古學的狂熱愛好者，他於2024年參觀了位於陝西省寶雞市（靠近發掘現場）的一家博物館，並仔細研究了西周時期的青銅器，其中包括一件刻有“中國”字樣的青銅器，這是目前已知最早的“中國”國名文字記載。

司馬遷，這位中國歷史之父，於西元前一世紀確立了對西周衰落的傳統解釋：王朝的瓦解是因為被一位美女迷惑並帶領其統治者周幽王走向歧途。

然而，近期的考古發現和其他證據駁斥了這種將朝代衰落視為一齣道德劇。相反，新的研究成果凸顯等級森嚴的政治體系隨著時間的推移而變得脆弱不堪，無法抵禦氣候變遷和內部紛爭帶來的衝擊。

陝西考古研究所所長Chong Jianrong數十年來致力於研究西周興衰的遺跡。他表示，常被指責為導致西周滅亡的嬪妃褒姒(Bao Si)“只過是個代罪羔羊”，用她來解釋這個所謂黃金時代的覆滅。

美國古代中國研究權威專家Edward L. Shaughnessy則認為，褒姒在西周滅亡中所扮演的角色 “當然只是個傳說” ， 很可能是 “周朝宮廷內部派系鬥爭” 的捏造產物。

西周被孔子及其追隨者譽為因貪欲而覆滅的典範，西周孕育了中國文明的諸多核心概念，例如“天命論”，即統治者因政績卓著而掌權，因不道德的行為而失勢。

但Chong先生談到西周的滅亡時說：“這不是關於一個美女惹麻煩的事。”

北京的中國科學家最近進行的一項研究提出了許多歷史學家認為更合理的理論。該研究利用從石筍中收集的證據，將西周王朝的滅亡歸咎於氣候的快速變化。發表在《通訊地球與環境》（Communications Earth & Environment），英國科學期刊《自然》的姊妹刊）上的這項研究指出，2800年前 就在西周王朝滅亡前夕 - 氣候的突然變化導致出現乾旱和異常寒冷，這對西周王朝的滅亡起到了「關鍵作用」。

另一項則是基於格陵蘭島和南極洲冰芯分析的研究，提供了兩千年來火山活動的年表，發現這段時期中國68個王朝中有62個王朝在一次或多次火山爆發後滅亡 - 火山爆發是歷史上做成短期氣候衝擊的主要原因之一。

都柏林聖三一學院中世紀環境史副教授Francis Ludlow與中國及其他國家的學者共同進行了這項研究。他在電話訪問中表示，火山活動與王朝衰落之間的密切關聯令他感到驚訝。 他說:「在王朝崩潰之前都發生如此多的火山爆發，事情絕非偶然巧合」。

（待續）

Dr. Watson Passed Away: Nobel Prize Winner for Discovering the Double Helix Structure of DNA

Recently NHK News On-line reported the following:

米 ワトソン博士死去 DNA二重らせん構造発見でノーベル賞受賞

2025年11月8日午前11時46分

訃報

生命の設計図DNAが二重らせん構造であることを発見し、ノーベル生理学・医学賞を受賞したアメリカの生物学者ジェームズ・ワトソン博士が6日、亡くなりました。97歳でした。

ワトソン博士は1953年、イギリス・ケンブリッジ大学でフランシス・クリック博士とともに、DNAが、2本の鎖がらせん状に絡み合う二重らせん構造であることを発表しました。

1962年にはノーベル生理学・医学賞をクリック博士らと受賞し、その成果はDNAをもとにした医療や技術の発展にもつながりました。

ニューヨーク・タイムズによりますと、ワトソン博士は6日、ニューヨーク州ロングアイランドで亡くなったということです。97歳でした。

ワトソン博士が所長を務め、長年研究を行ったアメリカのコールド・スプリング・ハーバー研究所は「心よりお悔やみ申し上げます。ワトソン博士は科学界および研究コミュニティーに多大な貢献をしました」とコメントしています。

Translation

Dr. Watson Passed Away: Nobel Prize Winner for Discovering the Double Helix Structure of DNA

Dr. James Watson, the American biologist who discovered the double helix structure of DNA, the blueprint of life, and won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine passed away on the 6th. He was 97 years old.

In 1953, at the University of Cambridge in the UK, Dr. Watson along with Dr. Francis Crick announced that DNA had a double helix structure, with two strands intertwined in a spiral.

In 1962, he and Dr. Crick shared the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, and their work led to the development of DNA-based medical treatments and technologies.

According to the New York Times, Dr. Watson passed away on the 6th in Long Island, New York. He was 97 years old.

The Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in the United States, where Dr. Watson served as director and conducted research for many years said in a statement, "We offer our deepest condolences. Dr. Watson made significant contributions to the scientific and research community."

              So, Dr. James Watson who discovered the double helix structure of DNA passed away at the age of 97 years old. Apparently, Dr. Watson by discovering the double-helix structure of the DNA molecule in 1953 has made significant contributions to the scientific and research community.

Note:

Dr. James Watson and Dr. Francis Crick are renowned for discovering the double-helix structure of the DNA molecule in 1953. Their groundbreaking work, which relied heavily on the experimental data of other scientists, particularly Rosalind Franklin and Maurice Wilkins, fundamentally changed the understanding of genetics and heredity. Working at the Cavendish Laboratory at the University of Cambridge, Watson (an American biologist) and Crick (a British physicist) used molecular modeling and data from other researchers to build their model. They proposed that DNA is a twisted ladder, or double helix, with two strands running in opposite directions (antiparallel). The "rungs" of the ladder are made of specific pairs of nitrogenous bases: adenine (A) with thymine (T), and guanine (G) with cytosine (C). (Google AI search)

《永遠只有一個珍古德》（2/2）

 Recently the New York Times reported the following:

‘There Will Always Only Be One Jane Goodall’ (2/2)

Scientists reflect on the life and work of a researcher whose discoveries made them rethink what it means to be human.

NYT -By Carl Zimmer and Emily Anthes

Oct. 1, 2025

(continue)

Dr. Crockford and other researchers have also confirmed that chimpanzees communicate with a wealth of calls and gestures. Their work has recently raised the possibility that some of the fundamental parts of language might have been present in the common ancestor of chimpanzees and humans.

Jill Pruetz, a primatologist at Texas State University, said that Dr. Goodall’s observation of chimpanzees making tools stands as one of the most important discoveries about animal behavior ever made. “It caused us to re-examine our own species and to rethink the way that we consider and treat other animals,” she said.

Researchers have since discovered that chimpanzees are even more versatile at making tools than Dr. Goodall realized. Dr. Pruetz, for example, observed chimpanzees in West Africa fashioning spears, which they used to stab monkeys. These findings showed that chimpanzees are not hard-wired to make certain tools; instead, they develop toolmaking cultures. Dr. Goodall did not realize it at the time, but at Gombe she had discovered only one chimpanzee culture among many.

As a scientist, Dr. Goodall’s work extended far beyond human evolution, even to the study of pandemics. She collaborated with Beatrice Hahn, a virologist at the University of Pennsylvania, to document H.I.V.-like viruses in the chimpanzees at Gombe.

Dr. Hahn said the detailed records that Dr. Goodall amassed of the chimpanzees — charting their families and interactions — made it possible to track the spread of simian immunodeficiency virus through the chimpanzees. The records also revealed that S.I.V. harmed the health and fertility of the chimpanzees.

In later years, Dr. Hahn built on her initial collaboration with Dr. Goodall at Gombe to show that H.I.V. originally evolved from S.I.V. in chimpanzees, jumping the species barrier through bush meat hunting.

“Jane’s willingness to collaborate was critical for the success of all our work,” Dr. Hahn said. “She was a true scientist.”

Dr. Goodall did not sugarcoat the lives of chimpanzees. She saw them commit grave acts of violence, including infanticide. And yet she also saw them as individuals with rich lives.

Indeed, what set Dr. Goodall apart was her “deep empathy” for both animals and humans and her ability to connect with people around the world, said Joe Walston, the executive vice president for global conservation at the Wildlife Conservation Society.

In numerous books, documentaries, interviews and speaking engagements, Dr. Goodall spoke out about the need to protect the world’s wild animals and their habitats. She was “driven by an uncompromising desire to be able to protect that which she was studying,” Mr. Walston said.

The Jane Goodall Institute, which she founded in 1977, now funds scientific research and conservation projects around the world. It also runs Roots & Shoots, a global program that helps young people around the world lead conservation and humanitarian projects in their communities.

“She was so good with young people,” said Jeanne McCarty, who previously led Roots & Shoots and traveled with Dr. Goodall. “She kept her own curiosity and energy and enthusiasm that we all have as children and sometimes lose. I never saw her lose that.”

Translation

《永遠只有一個珍古德》（2/2）

科學家回顧了一位研究人員的生平和工作，她的發現讓他們重新思考了身為人類的意義。

（繼續）

Crockford博士和其他研究人員也證實，黑猩猩透過豐富的叫聲和手勢來溝通。他們的研究最近提出了一個可能性：語言的一些基本組成部分可能存在於黑猩猩和人類的共同祖先身上。

德州州立大學的靈長類動物學家Jill Pruetz 表示，古德博士對黑猩猩製造工具的觀察是迄今為止關於動物行為的最重要發現之一。 她說: 「它促使我們重新審視我們自己的物種，並重新思考我們看待和對待其他動物的方式」。

研究人員後來發現，黑猩猩製作工具的能力遠遠超過古德博士的想像。例如，Pruetz,博士觀察到西非的黑猩猩會製作長矛，並用它們刺殺猴子。這些發現表明，黑猩猩並非天生就擅長製作某些工具；相反，它們發展出了製作工具的文化。古德博士當時並沒有意識到這一點，但她在Gombe只發現了眾多黑猩猩文化中的一種。

身為科學家，古德博士的工作遠不止人類演化，甚至延伸到了流行病研究。她與賓州大學的病毒學家 Beatrice Hahn 合作，記錄了Gombe黑猩猩體內的類愛滋病毒。

Hahn博士表示，古德博士收集的關於黑猩猩的詳細記錄 - 記錄了它們的家族和互動 - 使得可以追蹤猿猴免疫缺陷病毒在黑猩猩中的傳播。記錄還顯示，S.I.V. 損害了黑猩猩的健康和生育能力。

多年之後，Hahn博士在Gombe與古德博士的初步合作基礎上，進一步證明了愛滋病毒最初是由黑猩猩體內的 S.I.V. 進化而來的，並透過叢林獵食肉類而跨越了物種屏障。

哈恩博士說: 「珍的合作意願對我們所有工作的成功至關重要」; 「她是一位真正的科學家」。

古德博士沒有粉飾黑猩猩的生活。她親眼目睹了它們所犯下的嚴重暴力行為，包括殺嬰。但她也將它們視為擁有富裕生活的個體。

事實上，野生動物保護協會全球保護執行副總裁Joe Walston表示，古德博士的與眾不同之處在於她對動物和人類的 “'深度共鳴” ，以及她與世界各地人們溝通的能力。

古德博士在眾多書籍、紀錄片、訪談和演講中，都曾大聲疾呼保護世界野生動物及其棲息地的必要性。Walston 先生說，她「被一種堅定不移的願望所驅使，那就是保護她所研究的動物」。

她於1977年創立的珍古德研究所，目前正資助世界各地的科學研究和保育計劃。該研究所還經營「根與芽」項目，這是一個全球性項目，旨在幫助世界各地的年輕人在各自的社區領導保育和人道主義項目。

曾領導「根與芽」並陪同古德博士旅行的 Jeanne McCarty說道: 「她非常善於與年輕人相處」。 「她保持著我們兒時都有的好奇心、活力和熱情，這些有時會消失。但我從未見過她失去這些」。

       So, Dr. Jane Goodall began her work at Gombe Stream Research Center in 1960. The chimpanzees there grew accustomed to her presence, and thus enabled her to closely observed their activities. She noticed that one male chimpanzee deliberately broke off a stalk of grass and slipped it into a termite mound to fish for insects. Later, she saw other chimpanzees used tools as well. As tools making seemed like a hallmark of humans and far beyond the ability of a mere ape, scientists therefore had to redefine what was ‘tool' and ‘man’. In later years Dr. Goodall shared her observations both in scientific papers and in hugely popular books and supported scientific research and conservation projects around the world. Apparently, she was a true scientist.

《永遠只有一個珍·古德》（1/2）

 Recently the New York Times reported the following:

(Source: the NYT)

‘There Will Always Only Be One Jane Goodall’ (1/2)

Scientists reflect on the life and work of a researcher whose discoveries made them rethink what it means to be human.

The NYT -By Carl Zimmer and Emily Anthes

Oct. 1, 2025

Most people know Jane Goodall, who died Wednesday, as a silver-haired conservationist who chatted with Stephen Colbert and gave speeches to the United Nations in defense of nature. For scientists, however, it’s the young Jane Goodall who followed wild chimpanzees for weeks at a time who endures as an icon.

“There will always only be one Jane Goodall,” said Michael Tomasello, an expert on the origin of language at Duke University.

In 1957, Dr. Goodall’s scientific career started with a phone call. At the time, she was only 23, having worked as a waitress and a secretary. But she had educated herself deeply about animals, and wanted to find a way to work with them.

She called the paleoanthropologist Louis Leakey, who at the time was uncovering spectacular fossils of early humans and apes in Africa. She impressed him so much that he offered to support an expedition to Tanzania, where she would observe chimpanzees.

Dr. Goodall began her work at Gombe Stream Research Center in 1960. The chimpanzees there grew accustomed to her presence, allowing her to learn how to tell them apart. Soon she began noticing them behaving in surprising ways.

She observed one male chimpanzee, whom she later named David Greybeard, deliberately break off a stalk of grass and slip it into a termite mound to fish for insects. Later, she saw other chimpanzees use tools as well.

When Dr. Goodall relayed her observations to Leakey, he was stunned. Making tools seemed like a hallmark of humans and far beyond the ability of a mere ape.

“Now we must redefine ‘tool,’ redefine ‘man,’ or accept chimpanzees as humans,” he declared.

Dr. Goodall also uncovered a rich system of communication among Gombe’s chimpanzees. The sounds they made were not random noises but distinct calls. They rounded out those calls with gestures made with their hands and heads.

The longer Dr. Goodall observed the chimpanzees of Gombe, the more distinctive they became as individuals. Some of the apes were dominant, while others languished at the bottom of the hierarchy. Some were kind, others were cruel, and many were both.

Dr. Goodall, who earned her Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge, shared her observations both in scientific papers and in hugely popular books. Some experts criticized her for giving the Gombe chimpanzees names instead of numbers, and for suggesting that they had individual personalities.

But her writing drew in generations of new scientists who did more research on chimpanzees and other apes. “It was after reading her books that I put on my boots and binoculars and went out in the jungle,” said Catherine Crockford, an expert on chimpanzees at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology.

Many of Dr. Goodall’s initial observations turned out to be remarkably prescient. “She opened the window into the mind of chimpanzees,” said Martin Surbeck, an evolutionary biologist at Harvard.

Subsequent studies demonstrated that many animals besides chimpanzees have personalities. “It was a paradigm shift,” said Marc Bekoff, an expert on animal minds and behavior at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and a close friend of and frequent collaborator with Dr. Goodall. He was in the middle of working on a children’s book with her when she died. “‘It’s called ‘Every Elephant Has A Name,’” he said.

(to be continued)

Translation

《永遠只有一個珍·古德》（1/2）

科學家回顧了一位研究者的生平和工作，其發現讓他們重新思考作為人的意義

大多數人所熟知的珍·古德 (Jane Goodall) ，於週三去世。她是一位銀髮蒼蒼的自然資源保護主義者，曾與 Stephen Colbert 交談，並在聯合國發表演講捍衛大自然。然而，對科學家來說，年輕時曾連續數週追蹤野生黑猩猩的珍古德是他們心中的偶像。

Duke大學語言起源專家 Michael Tomasello說: 「永遠只有一個珍‧古德」。

1957年，古德博士的科學生涯始於一個聯絡電話。當時，她年僅23歲，做過服務生和秘書。但她深入了解對動物，並想找到一份與牠們有關的工作。

她聯繫了古人類學家 Louis Leakey，當時 Leakey正在非洲發現令人驚嘆的早期人類和猿類化石。她給 Leakey留下了深刻的印象，使 Leakey主動提出支持她前往坦尚尼亞進行考察，以便她在那裡觀察黑猩猩。

古德博士於1960年開始在 Gombe Stream 研究中心工作。那裡的黑猩猩逐漸習慣了她的存在，這讓她學會如何區分它們。很快，她就開始注意到它們的行為舉止令人驚訝。

她觀察到一隻雄性黑猩猩（後來被她命名為 David Greybeard）會故意折斷一根草莖，塞進白蟻丘里捕捉蟻蟲。後來，她還看到其他黑猩猩也會使用工具。

當古德博士將她的觀察轉達給 Leakey時，Leakey 驚呆了。製造工具似乎是人類的標誌，這遠遠超出了普通猿類的能力。

Leakey宣稱: “現在我們必須重新定義‘工具’，重新定義‘人類’，或接受黑猩猩是人類」。

古德博士也發現了在 Gombe的黑猩猩之間有豐富的溝通系統。它們發出的聲音並非隨機的噪音，而是獨特的叫聲。它們用手和頭的姿勢來補充這些叫聲。

古德博士觀察 Gombe黑猩猩的時間越長，越覺它們個體之間的差異就越大。有些猿類佔據主導地位，而有些則處於社會底層。有些猿類善良，有些則殘忍，還有很多兩者都是。

古德博士從劍橋大學獲得了博士學位, 她在科學論文和暢銷書中分享了她的觀察。一些專家批評她給了Gombe黑猩猩名字而不是編號，並暗示它們具有獨特的個性。

但她的著作吸引了一代又一代的新科學家，他們對黑猩猩和其他猿類進行了更多的研究。 Max Planck進化人類學研究所的黑猩猩專家Catherine Crockford 說道: 「正是在讀了她的書之後，我才穿上靴子，帶上雙筒望遠鏡，走進叢林」。

古德博士的許多初步觀察結果被證明具有非凡的先見之明。哈佛大學演化生物學家 Martin Surbeck說: 「她打開了通往黑猩猩思維的窗戶」。

後續研究表明，除了黑猩猩之外，許多動物也具有個性。 科羅拉多大學博爾德分校的動物思維和行為專家Marc Bekoff說道: 「這是一種範式轉變」; 他是古德博士的密友，並經常與她合作。當古德博士過世時，他正與她合作創作一本兒童讀物。 他說: 「這本書的名字叫《每頭大像都有名字》」。

（待續）

中國已做好迎接貿易戰的準備，美國仍有許多需要學習的地方（1/2）

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China Came Ready for This Trade Fight, and the US Has a Lot to Learn (1/2)

Bloomberg - Tom Orlik, Eric Zhu and Jennifer Welch

Wed, August 13, 2025 at 3:00 a.m. PDT 8 min read

(Bloomberg Markets) -- Under President Donald Trump, the US has launched a multipronged attack on China’s economy. Since Chairman Mao Zedong’s reign, China has seen it coming. A US system built around the ideal of openness and interdependence is facing off against a Chinese counterpart constructed as a fortress of control. Both sides have powerful resources. Only one has been preparing for the fight for decades.

Since the beginning of Trump’s first term in 2017, the US stance on China has swung from constructive if increasingly cautious engagement to something between fierce rivalry and outright hostility. China’s exports to the US face duties running close to 40%. Supply of bleeding-edge semiconductors for China’s technology companies has been curtailed. The country’s science, technology, engineering and math students, once welcomed into US university labs, are checked at the border. The social media app TikTok, owned by Chinese parent ByteDance Ltd., is on a stay of execution in the US market.

The assumption in Washington is that China must now be floundering. Isn’t it hooked on US customers and technologies? It’s only a matter of time, surely, before President Xi Jinping picks up his red phone to call the White House and concede defeat.

The reality is rather different. It’s certainly true that Trump’s policy pivot is a problem for Beijing. Bloomberg Economics calculations show tariffs at the current levels would erase more than 50% of sales to the US. But it’s far from the end of China’s development story.

China’s exports to the US equal about 3% of gross domestic product—down from a peak of 7% two decades ago, after a campaign to diversify away from American consumers that’s been every bit as deliberate as US efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. That means even if half of China’s exports to the US get wiped out, the blow to the overall economy is just 1.5%. Not good news, to be sure, but far from a disaster.

With the US starting a trade war against not just China but everyone else as well, its losses may well be around the same size. Model-based estimates from Bloomberg Economics flag a hit of about 1.6% of GDP as import prices rise and supply chains snarl.

The algorithmic outperformance of DeepSeek (China’s answer to ChatGPT) shows its coders are smart enough to work around the US embargo on semiconductor supplies. Control of rare earth elements critical for manufacturing and defense industries has given China an export-controls weapon of its own—one it’s used in this year’s negotiations in Geneva and London to extract concessions from the US.

The upshot: Even after almost a decade of US efforts to contain its manufacturing might, China’s share of global exports remains elevated.

Why is China proving so resilient? Because for more than a century, from the last gasp of the Qing dynasty, through a short-lived Republic, to the chaos of Maoism and the progress of the reform era, there’s been one outstanding constant: preparation for the struggle now playing out.

It started in the late 19th and early 20th century, when, after humiliation from foreign invaders, China’s thinkers started to aim at “self-strengthening” through modernization. Born in 1854, and graduating from the British naval academy, intellectual and educator Yan Fu translated into Chinese the works of Western scholars such as English biologist Thomas Huxley and Scottish economist Adam Smith. From Huxley he introduced the idea of “survival of the fittest,” making the case that nations, like species in the natural world, must continually build themselves up to avoid falling prey to more powerful rivals.

In the 1930s struggle between Mao’s Communists and Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists, Mao’s promise of effective resistance against the Japanese invaders, as much as the dream of a more egalitarian society, was the center of his appeal. In power from 1949, he instituted a forced-march approach to industrialization that ended in the graveyard for many Chinese. The path was winding, but the aim was unwavering: Stave off foreign threats. “The American imperialists have always wanted to destroy us,” he warned.

In the reform era that began soon after Mao’s death in 1976, the self-strengthening objective remained the same, but the policies to deliver it were vastly improved. In the 1980s and ’90s, He Xin—a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences scholar whose work ­circulated among top leaders—warned that as China rose, “developed countries feeling threatened by the increase in ­competition will seek to hold China down.” He had a plan to respond: “With the constant threat of being destroyed, building a fully self-reliant industrial system should naturally be the most realistic option for China.”

(to be continued)

Translation

中國已做好迎接貿易戰的準備，美國仍有許多需要學習的地方（1/2）

（彭博市場）—在特朗普總統的領導下，美國對中國經濟發動了多管齊下的攻擊。自毛澤東主席執政以來，中國就已預見此一趨勢。以開放和相互依存為理念建構的美國體系，正與以控制堡壘為核心建構的中國體系對峙。雙方都擁有強大的資源。只有一方為這場鬥爭準備了數十年。

自2017年特朗普第一任期開始以來，美國對華立場已從建設性但日益謹慎的接觸，轉變為介於激烈競爭和徹底敵對之間的一種狀態。中國對美出口面臨近40%的關稅。中國科技公司尖端半導體的供應已受到限制。曾經受美國大學實驗室歡迎的中國科學、技術、工程和數學專業的學生，如今卻在邊境受到檢查。其中國母公司字節跳動旗下的社群媒體應用程式TikTok 在美國的市場被暫停營運。

華盛頓的假設是，中國現在肯定陷入困境。難道它不依賴美國客戶和科技嗎？ 習近平主席會拿起他的紅色電話致電白宮承認失敗肯定只是時間上的問題。

現實情況並非如此。特朗普的政策轉向確實對北京構成了問題。彭博經濟研究的計算顯示，以目前的水平徵收關稅將使中國對美銷售額減少50%以上。但這遠非中國發展過程的終點。

中國對美出口約佔國內生產毛額（GDP）的3%，低於20年前7%的最高峰。此前，中國積極推動經濟多元化，減少對美國消費者的依賴，這與美國減少對中國供應鏈的依賴的努力同樣深思熟慮。這意味著，即使中國對美出口減少一半，對整體經濟的打擊僅1.5%。這當然不是好消息，但遠非災難。

隨著美國不僅對中國發動貿易戰，也對其他國家發動貿易戰，其損失很可能與美國本身大致相同。彭博經濟研究基於模型的估計顯示，由於進口價格上漲和供應鏈混亂，GDP將受到約1.6%的衝擊。

DeepSeek（中國版ChatGPT）演算法的優異表現表明，其程式設計師足夠聰明，能夠繞過美國的半導體供應禁運。中國對製造業和國防工業至關重要的稀土元素的控制，讓它擁有了出口管制的武器 - 在今年日內瓦和倫敦的談判中，中國也利用了這項武器迫使美國讓步。

結果：即使美國近十年來一直試圖遏制中國製造業實力，中國在全球出口中的份額仍然保持在高位。

中國為何如此堅韌？因為一個多世紀以來，從清朝的末期，到曇花一現的民國，再到毛澤東時代的混亂和改革開放的進步，中國始終堅持一個突出的原則：為現今的鬥爭做好準備。

這始於19世紀末20世紀初，當時飽受外敵侵略之辱的中國思想家開始致力於透過現代化去實現「自強」。嚴復 (Yan Fu)出生於1854年，畢業於英國海軍學院，是一位知識分子和教育家，他將英國生物學家 Thomas Huxley 和蘇格蘭經濟學家亞 Adam Smith 當等西方學者的著作翻譯成中文。他從Huxley的著作中引入了「適者生存」的概念，認為國家如同自然界中的物種一樣，必須不斷自我發展，才能避免被更強大的對手吞噬。

在1930年代毛澤東領導的共產黨與蔣介石領導的國民黨之間的鬥爭中，毛澤東的核心號召力是承諾有效抵抗日本侵略者的，以及建立一個更加平等社會的夢想。 1949年上台後，他推行了強行推進工業化的路線，但最終卻讓許多中國人走向了墳墓。這條路雖然曲折，但目標堅定不移：抵禦外來威脅。他警告說： “美帝國主義者一直想毀滅我們。”

1976年毛澤東去世後不久中國開啟的改革開放時期，自強不息的目標依然如故，但去實現這一目標的政策卻得到了極大的改進。在1980年代和1990年代，中國社會科學院學者何新 (He Xin) （其著作曾在高層領導人中流傳）曾警告稱，隨著中國的崛起，「已開發國家感受到競爭加劇帶來的威脅，將試圖壓制中國」。他制定了應對計劃：「面對持續存在的被摧毀的威脅，建立一個完全自給自足的工業體係自然應該是中國最實際的選擇。」

（待續）

Note:

1. Yan Fu (嚴復)（1854–1921）, born in 1854 in Fuzhou of China, began his scholarly journey at a young age. His early education was rooted in traditional Chinese learning, starting at a private school around age seven, then under the tutelage of esteemed scholars from age eleven, laying a strong foundation in the Confucian classics. After his father’s death in 1866 that plunged the family into hardship, Yan Fu entered the Foochow Arsenal Academy in 1867, where he studied English, mathematics, physics, chemistry, astronomy, navigation, and other practical subjects. He graduated with top honors in 1871 and then served aboard naval vessels for five years. In 1877, Yan Fu was sent to Europe to further his studies. He first studied in Portsmouth in Britain before earning admission to the Royal Naval College at Greenwich in London. There, he excelled in advanced mathematics, chemistry, physics, naval tactics, maritime law, and artillery fortifications. During his time in Britain, he immersed himself beyond his assigned courses by frequently visiting libraries, attending court sessions, and exploring Western political, economic, and social philosophies, fueling his lifelong quest to understand the sources of Western strength. (ChatGPT)

For the first time, texts on a scroll carbonized by the Vesuvius eruption are deciphered using tomography and AI

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ベスビオ火山噴火で炭化した巻物、文章を初めて解読　断層撮影やＡＩ駆使

2024.02.08 Thu posted at 15:52 JST

（ＣＮＮ） 米国などの大学の研究者がこのほど、西暦７９年のベスビオ火山噴火で黒焦げになった「ヘルクラネウムの巻物」のほぼ完全な文章を解読した。２０００年近く前の思想を垣間見せる発見となった。

「ヘルクラネウムの巻物」はベスビオ火山噴火による焼失を免れた数百点のパピルスの一つ。炭化しているため、巻物を開こうとすると崩れる状態で、何か書かれていたとしても肉眼ではほぼ判読不可能だった。

研究者らは今回、コンピューター技術や高度な人工知能（ＡＩ）を駆使することで、極めて脆（もろ）い文書を開封して損傷させる危険を冒すことなく巻物を分析できるようになった。解読コンペ「ベスビオ火山チャレンジ」を立ち上げたコンピューター科学者らの５日の発表によると、これまでに２０００文字以上が解読されたという。

最初の単語は昨年１０月、米ネブラスカ大学でコンピューター科学を専攻する学生ルーク・ファリター氏と、ベルリン自由大学の大学院生ユセフ・ネーダー氏が別々に解読した。今年に入ってチューリッヒ工科大学のロボット工学専攻の学生ジュリアン・シリガー氏も加わり、この３人でコンテストの大賞の賞金７０万ドルを獲得した。大賞は巻物内の四つの連続する文章の文字のうち８５％を解読した最初のチームに与えられる。

３人は「バーチャル開封」と呼ばれる技術を活用して文章を解読した。コンピューター断層撮影（ＣＴ）を使って丸まった巻物をスキャンすることで、巻物をバーチャル上で平面化したり、高度なＡＩによりページ上のインクを探知したりすることが可能になった。３人がギリシャ文字を発見した後は、英仏伊から専門のパピルス学者が分析作業に加わった。

ベスビオ火山噴火の現場からは、１０００点を超える炭化した巻物が回収されている。ベスビオ山はイタリアのナポリ近郊にある火山で、噴火により古代ローマの都市ポンペイとヘルクラネウムは火山泥に覆われた。米ケンタッキー大学によると、現在「ヘルクラネウムの巻物」と呼ばれる炭化した文書は、ユリウス・カエサルの義父の自宅から回収されたと考えられている。

解読された文章には、哲学者ピロデモスの記した言葉が書かれていた。ピロデモスは巻物が見つかった図書館のお抱えの哲学者だったとみられる。

ピロデモスは解読された文章の中で「快楽」について記し、手に入る物の豊富さが快楽の量に影響を与えるかどうかを考察している。最初の文章には「食べ物の場合と同じく、わずかしかない物の方が豊富に存在する物よりも断然大きな快楽を与えるとは、にわかには信じがたい」とある。

Translation

(CNN) Researchers from universities in the United States and other countries had recently deciphered the nearly complete text of the ``Scrolls of Herculaneum,'' which were charred by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD. The discovery provided a glimpse into the thinking of nearly 2,000 years ago.

The Scrolls of Herculaneum were among the hundreds of papyri that survived the eruption of Mount Vesuvius. Because it was carbonized, the scroll crumbled when you tried to open it, and even if there was any writing on it, it was almost impossible to read with the naked eye.

Now, using computer technology and advanced artificial intelligence (AI), researchers were now able to analyze the scrolls without opening the extremely fragile documents and risking damage. According to an announcement on the 5th by computer scientists who launched the ``Vesuvius Volcano Challenge,'' that was a deciphering competition, more than 2,000 characters had been deciphered so far.

The first word was deciphered in October last year by Luke Fariter, a computer science student at the University of Nebraska, and Yusef Nader, a graduate student at Free University of Berlin. Julian Siliger, a student from ETH Zurich majoring in robotics, joined the team earlier this year, and together they won the contest's grand prize of $700,000. The grand prize was be awarded to the first team to decipher 85% of the letters in four consecutive sentences within the scroll.

The three researchers used a technology called ``virtual opening'' to decipher the text. By scanning a curled-up scroll using computed tomography (CT), it was now possible to virtually flatten the scroll and use advanced AI to detect ink on the page. After the three discovered the Greek letters, specialized papyrus scholars from England, France, and Italy joined in the analysis work.

 More than 1,000 charred scrolls had been recovered from the site of the Vesuvius eruption. Mount Vesuvius was a volcano near Naples, Italy, whose eruption covered the ancient Roman cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum in volcanic mud. The carbonized document, now known as the Scroll of Herculaneum, was believed to have been recovered from the home of Julius Caesar's stepfather, according to the University of Kentucky.

The deciphered text contained words written by the philosopher Philodemus.  Philodemus was believed to have been the philosopher in the library where the scrolls were found.

In this deciphered text, Philodemus wrote about "pleasure" and considers whether the abundance of material goods could influence the amount of pleasure. His first sentence said, `` Just like in the case of food, in saying that something is scarce can give far more pleasure than something that is abundant, definitely it is hard to believe that right away.''

              So, researchers have deciphered the text of the ``Scrolls of Herculaneum,'' which were charred by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD. The discovery provides a glimpse into the thinking of nearly 2,000 years ago. Thanks to the new technology, researchers now can use a technology called ``virtual opening'' to decipher the text.

Note:

Philodemus of Gadara (ca. 110–ca. 30 BCE) was an Epicurean philosopher and epigrammatist who, having studied in the Epicurean school at Athens when it was led by Zeno of Sidon (c. 150–c. 75 BCE), moved to Italy, probably in the 70s BCE. There he might have lived in the Greek town of Naples, and perhaps also in Rome. (https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/philodemus/)

訃告：愛新覚羅溥任96歲, 清朝末代皇帝溥儀的弟弟

A few weeks ago the Mainichi News on-line reported the following:

訃報:愛新覚羅溥任さん９６歳＝清朝最後の皇帝、溥儀実弟

毎日新聞　2015年04月11日　00時01分（最終更新　04月11日　00時08分）

　愛新覚羅溥任さん９６歳（あいしんかくら・ふにん＝清朝最後の皇帝、溥儀の実弟）中国紙、法制晩報（電子版）によると、１０日死去。死因は不明。

　１９１８年９月、清朝の皇族の四男として北京で生まれる。日本のかいらい国家だった満州国の皇帝に溥儀氏が即位する一方、溥任氏は執政には携わらなかった。４７年に小学校を設立し校長を務めるなど教育事業に従事した。

　北京市の人民政治協商会議（政策助言機関）の委員も３期務めた。（共同）

(試譯文)

The 96 years old Mr. Aisin-Gioro Pu Ren (Mr. Ai Xin Jue Luo Puren = the younger brother of Puyi who was the last emperor of the Qing Dynasty) died on the 10^th (April) according to a Chinese paper the Law Evening News (electronic edition). The cause of death was not clear.

 He was born in Beijing in September 1918 as the Qing Dynasty royal family fourth male. Although Mr. Puyi acceded to the emperor in Manchukuo which was a Japanese puppet state, Mr. Puren did not participate in the governance. He engaged in educational business such as establishing an elementary school in 1947 and served as the principal.

 He also had served for 3 terms in the People's Political Consultative Conference in Beijing city (a policy advising organization).

Obviously Mr. Puren has never been in the political lime light throughout his life. 

George Kennan (Part V)

(15) that Soviet pressure against the free institutions of the west is something that can be contained by the adroit and vigilant application of counter-force at a series of constantly shifting geographical and political points, corresponding to the shifts and maneuvers of Soviet policy.

On the basis of the fifteen points quoted above, I marvel at the foresight of George Kennan who wrote them in 1947. He had a sharp eye in analysing the sources of Soviet conduct, and not surprisingly CCP also had such conducts, particularly in the first 30 years since the latter ruled mainland China.

Even in recent years, I still can see traces of the Soviet conducts in the behavior of CCP. For example in quotation number five above it states that in USSR the mass of Party members might go through the motions of election, deliberation and action; but in these motions they were to be animated not by their own individual will but by the awesome breath of the Party leadership. This situation is still quite true in CCP. Quotation number nine above is also relevant. But now the role of USSR is replaced by China. It seems that when there is something China wants from the US the former's stance may be thrust temporarily into the background; and when that happens there will always some China observers/experts who will leap forward with gleeful announcements that "China's policy have changed," and some who will even try to take credit for having brought about such "changes".

Reference:
1. [George Kennan]. "The Sources of Soviet Conduct" in Foreign Affairs, 1947.
2. US Department of State, Bureau of International Information Programs.(http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2005/March)
3. Una McGovern ed. Chambers Biographical Dictionary. Chambers Harrap Publishers Ltd.,2002.