2020年9月28日 星期一

China - To switch to in-house development of basic software for Huawei smartphones

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

中国 ファーウェイ スマホの基本ソフト 自社開発に切り替えへ

2020910 2203

中国の通信機器大手ファーウェイは、来年からスマートフォンの基本ソフトを自社が開発したものに切り替えられるようにする方針を明らかにしました。アメリカのトランプ政権による規制強化に対応するためです。

ファーウェイは10日、中国南部の広東省でイベントを開きました。

この中で、スマートフォンの基本ソフトについて、来年から、アメリカのグーグルの製品をもとにしたものでなく、みずから開発した「ハーモニー」と呼ぶ基本ソフトに切り替えられるようにすることを明らかにしました。

アメリカのトランプ政権は、安全保障上の脅威になるとしてファーウェイなどへの規制を強化していて、今回の発表は、仮にグーグルのソフトが利用できなくなっても問題なくスマートフォンが使えるようにするねらいです。

ファーウェイの消費者事業部門の余承東CEOは、「われわれの基本ソフトに対応したアプリは今や96000に上る」として、利用環境が整っているとアピールしました。

一方、ファーウェイをめぐっては、トランプ政権による追加の規制によって、今月15日以降、スマートフォンに必要な半導体を台湾などから調達できなくなる可能性が出ていますが、10日のイベントでは、この問題への言及はありませんでした。

Translation

Huawei, a major Chinese telecommunications equipment company, had announced a policy to switch its basic software of smartphones to the one developed by the company starting from next year. This was a response to the tightening of regulations by the Trump administration in the United States.

Huawei held an event in Guangdong Province in southern China on the 10th.

In this event, it was clarified that from next year, the basic software for smartphones would be switched to the basic software called "Harmony" that was developed by himself, instead of to be based on Google products in the United States.

As the Trump administration in the United States had tightened regulations on Huawei and others as were posing a security threat, the announcement this time aimed to temporarily enable smartphones to be used without problems even if Google software became unavailable.

Huawei's CEO Yu Chengdong of the consumer business division said that "there are now 96,000 apps that support our basic software", and emphasized that they were ready to adjust to using the situation.

On the other hand, regarding Huawei, there was a possibility that after the 15th of this month the semiconductors required for smartphones might not be procured from Taiwan etc. due to additional regulations by the Trump administration; but at the event on the 10th, this problem was not mentioned.

              So, Huawei is switching its software for smartphones to the one that is developed by itself. In my mind, Huawei would be one of the causalities among the many multi-national enterprises and corporations were caught off-guard due to US-China conflicts. The next one would be the HSBC.

2020年9月25日 星期五

Which type you are? Cat owners are classified into 5 types - English research

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

あなたはどのタイプ? 猫の飼い主を5種類に分類 英研究

2020.09.09 Wed posted at 16:50 JST

 (CNN) 猫の飼い主は「良心的な世話人」や「寛容な保護者」など、5種類の分類のいずれかに当てはまる――。英エクセター大学の研究チームが飼い猫と野生生物とのかかわりに関する研究の一環として、そんな分類を打ち出した。

猫は獲物を捕ったりうろついたりする習性によって分類され、飼い主が猫をどの程度管理するかは、猫と周辺環境とのかかわり方に影響を与える。

飼い主の中には、猫の野生の習性を尊重して放し飼いにする人もいれば、室内の目の届く所で飼うことを好む人もいる。

研究チームの狙いは、猫に殺される野生生物を減らしながら、飼い主が猫を管理する方法を模索することにある。英国の飼い猫の数は推計で1000万匹以上。しかし放し飼いの猫は、猫自身や小動物にとっての危険を生じさせることもある。

「これは一般的に、猫の飼い主や猫を擁護する人と、自然保護を訴える人、特に鳥類保護を訴える人との論争と位置付けられる」。エクセター大学のサラ・クロウリー氏はそう解説する。

今回の研究では猫の飼い主50人以上を対象に実施した調査をもとに、飼い主の行動を5種類に分類した。

その目的は、飼い主の視点を取り入れることによって妥協点を探り、猫の行動を持続的に管理するための最善の行動を見極めることにある。

研究チームによると、猫の飼い主は、考え方によって次の5種類に分類できることが分かった。

・心配症の庇護(ひご)者:猫の安全を重視する

・自由の守護者:猫の独立性を最優先し、行動制限には反対する

・寛容な保護者:猫を外出させることは大切だと考えるが、獲物を捕ることは好まない

・良心的な世話人:飼い猫が獲物を捕る行動を管理することに関してある程度の責任感を感じる

・自由放任:猫がうろついて獲物を捕ることに関する問題をほとんど認識していない

放し飼いの猫は小鳥やネズミなどを危険にさらすだけでなく、交通事故に遭ったり病気になったりする危険もあるとクロウリー氏は話す。

飼い主が5つの分類のうちどれに当てはまるにしても、それを認識するだけで役に立つと研究チームは指摘。クロウリー氏は「今回の調査をきっかけに、自分がどのタイプかを考えてもらい、自分たち自身や野生生物に対する猫の飼い主としての責任について、友人や家族と話し合ってもらいたい」と話している。

Translation

(CNN) Cat owners fell into one of five categories, including "conscientious caretakers" and "tolerant guardians." A research team at the University of Exeter in the UK had come up with such a classification as part of a study on the relationship between domestic cats and wildlife.

Cats were categorized by their prey-catching and wandering habits, how well their owners managed them, and the affects of how they interacted with their surroundings.

Some owners respected the wild habits of cats and keep them free, while others preferred to keep them indoors within their sight.

The research team's aim was to find out ways for owners to manage cats while reducing the wildlife killed by cats. The number of domestic cats in the UK was estimated to be more than 10 million. However, free-range cats could pose a danger to the cat itself and to small animals.

Sarah Crowley of the University of Exeter explained that, "In general it is regarded as a dispute between cat owners and advocates of cats, with those who advocate nature conservation, especially those who advocate for bird conservation."

In this study, based on a survey of more than 50 cat owners, the behaviors of the owners were classified into five types.

Its purpose was to seek compromises by incorporating the owner's perspective, and to determine the best action for sustainable management of cat behavior.

According to the research team, cat owners could be classified into the following five types based on their thinking.

Protector with over-worrying tendency: Emphasized on cat safety

Guardian of freedom: Prioritized the independence of cats and opposed to behavioral restrictions

Tolerant guardian: Thinking it's important to let a cat go out, but did not like prey-catching

Conscientious caretaker: Felt some responsibility for managing the behavior of domestic cats regarding catching preys

Laissez-faire: Little aware of problems with cats wandering around and catching preys

Free-range cats not only endangered small birds and mice, but they also risked traffic accidents and illness, Crowley said.

The research team pointed out that just to understand what owner belonged to which of the five categories could be useful by itself. Crowley said " In the wake of this survey, we want people to think about which type they themselves are, and discuss with friends and family about the responsibilities of themselves, and as cat owners towards the wildlife".

              I am a cat lover. I would regard myself as a "Guardian of freedom": someone who prioritizes the independence of cats and opposes behavioral restrictions.

2020年9月22日 星期二

中國尋求通過超級電力綜合體去降低對煤炭依賴

Recently Yahoo Business reported the following:

China Seeks to Dent Coal Addiction With Mega Power Complexes

Bloomberg News

Bloomberg September 6, 2020, 8:05 p.m. PDT

(Bloomberg) -- Imagine a power plant built next to a coal mine but also operating wind turbines and solar panels. The facility hosts batteries to store electricity when supply is in excess. The main source of power could flip from the fossil fuel to clean energy, depending on weather and price.

Spending billions of dollars to integrate power generation in this kind of mega-complex is now up for discussion in China, the world’s largest consumer of coal and its biggest promoter of renewables. While housing the two in the same facility creates obvious efficiencies, there’s a second purpose that has the potential to loosen the dirtiest fossil fuel’s choke-hold on China’s energy generation -- like a cuckoo snuggling up in another bird’s nest.

This is part of a national strategy to support battery, wind and solar demand, and develop these key strategic technologies and the corresponding supply chains,” according to Alex Whitworth, research director at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “So in a way, it can be seen as a government-directed cross-subsidy from fossil fuel profits to new energy technology.”

It’s a theme playing out at the corporate level, as coal miners look to add clean energy assets, and utilities shift spending to renewables. The national plan is to reduce China’s reliance on coal to cut pollution and mitigate global heating, but it’s slow going. Beijing wants to derive 20% of its energy consumption from non-fossil fuels by 2030, compared with about 15% last year.

China’s project-based approach to combining dirty and clean energy may be unique, and the National Energy Administration has begun seeking opinions on whether such mega-complexes are viable. That process will take about a month. Crucially, its starting point is that the amount of coal power involved would be strictly controlled, suggesting that coal’s role in the projects isn’t intended to be a dominant one. And the nation has some natural advantages, given that its major mining regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang also have a lot of renewable power sources on hand.

Periodic Nature

Clean energy’s biggest challenge is its periodic nature, which disrupts the daily planning of operations at the power grid. Deploying it widely with a mandate to add storage could reduce the costs of utility-scale batteries, which are still being scaled up. Meanwhile, the coal backstop would ensure that power supply is continuous.

The cost reductions for reliable green power resulting from these mega complexes could put a dent in coal power in the long run, said Li Daixin, an analyst at BloombergNEF.

But many questions around cost, time-lines and efficacy remain unanswered. “Energy storage, for example, is a major component of the integration strategy, yet a clear revenue stream for these projects remains elusive,” said Megan Jenkins, a senior research analyst at IHS Markit.

And nobody is imagining the effort will be a silver bullet to China’s coal addiction. “The impact to the power market will be more long-term,” said Morningstar Inc. analyst Jennifer Song. “The key purpose is to shift the energy mix toward renewables.”

And it could take the NEA months or even years to issue guidelines on the complexes even after they are deemed viable. But the shift to at least combine renewables generation with energy storage is proceeding in any case, with China Huaneng Group the latest to reveal such a project in Inner Mongolia with an investment of 5 billion yuan ($732 million).

Translation

(彭博社)- 想像一下一個建在煤礦旁的發電廠,它的渦輪機同時也用著風力和太陽能電池板。該設施有儲電池在供電過剩時來存儲電量。基於於天氣和價格,主要動力來源可能會從化石燃料轉向清潔能源。

中國目前正在討論用數十億美元將這種大型綜合體發電方法集成一起,這是世界上最大的煤炭消費國和最大的可再生能源促進者。雖然將兩者放在同一個設施中可以明顯提高效率,但還有另一個目的,即有可能除解中國能源生產被最骯髒的化石燃料對的束縛,就像布穀鳥依偎在另一雀鳥巢。

Wood Mackenzie Ltd. 研究總監亞歷克斯•惠特沃思(Alex Whitworth)表示:這是支持電池,風能和太陽能需求, 並開發這些關鍵戰略技術和相應供應鏈的國家戰略的一部分” 所以在某種程度上 被視為由政府指導的從化石燃料利潤到新能源技術的交叉補貼。”

隨著煤礦工人尋求增加清潔能源資,公用事業將支出轉移到可再生能源上,這是企業層面的主題。國家計劃是減少中國對煤炭的依賴,以減少染和減輕全球暖化,但進展是緩慢。北京希望到2030年有20%的能源消耗來自非化石燃料,而去年側約為15%。

中國項目化的結合髒和清潔能源相的方法可能是獨特的,國家能源局 (NEA)已經開始就這種大型綜合體是否可行徵求意見。這個過程大約需要一個月。至關重要的是,其起步點是嚴格控制所涉及的燃煤發電量,這表明燃煤在項目中的作用並不是要成為主導。鑑於蒙古和新疆等主要礦區也有大量可再生能源,故該國家具有一些自然優勢。

大自然的週期性

清潔能源面臨的最大挑戰是其周期性,這會擾亂電網的日常運營計劃。強制性地廣泛部署增加存儲空間以可以降低仍在擴大規模中的公用事業級電池的成本。同時,有煤炭支持將確保持續的電力供應。

 彭博新能源財經(BloombergNEF)的分析師李代新表示,降低從這些大型綜合設施中獲得的可靠綠色電力的成本, 從長遠來看可能會減省煤炭電力。

但是圍繞成本,時間表和效力的許多問題仍未得到解答。 IHS Markit資深研究分析師梅根·詹金斯(Megan Jenkins)表示: “例如,儲能是整合戰略的主要組成部分,但這些項目的明確收入來源仍然難以找到。”

沒有人估計這項努力可以成為解決中國依賴煤炭的靈丹妙藥。 Morningstar Inc.分析師Jennifer Song對電力市場的影響將是長期的。”主要目的是將能源結構轉向可再生能源。”

即使在綜合體被認為可行之後,NEA可能要花費數月甚至數年的時間才能發布它的指南。但是無論如何,把可再生能源發電與儲能結合起來已經在進行中; 中國華能集團(China Huaneng Group)最新透露了在蒙古投資50億元人民幣(7.32億美元)在這一種項目。

        So, China is reviewing it policy on using more renewable energy. The production of renewable energy has one clear advantage for China: it will not be subject to the constraints or embargo of foreign countries.

2020年9月19日 星期六

A popular Chinese restaurant - has its business violated the residence status rules?

 Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

人気中華店 在留資格外の業務か

0909日 1834

 独特な調理法でつくる焼きそばが人気の中華料理店、『梅蘭』の神奈川県内などにある店舗で働く中国籍の従業員7人が、在留資格で認められていない業務を担当していた疑いがあるとして、警察は9日、出入国管理法違反の疑いで逮捕するとともに、関係先として運営する会社を捜索しました。

捜索を受けたのは『梅蘭』を運営する横浜市中区の「源玉商事」で、9日午前、事務所に神奈川県警の捜査員およそ20人が入りました。

警察によりますと、神奈川や東京にある店舗で働く中国籍の従業員7人は、在留資格で認められていない配膳や接客などの業務を担当していたとして、出入国管理法違反の疑いがあるということです。

警察は9日、7人を逮捕し、関係先として運営する会社を捜索しました。

このうち数人の従業員は「在留資格の申請は会社が行っていた」という趣旨の説明をしているということで、警察は会社が不正を把握しながら雇っていた疑いもあるとみて調べています。

『梅蘭』は独特な調理法でつくる焼きそばが有名な人気の中華料理店で、テレビ番組でもたびたび紹介され、ホームページによりますと関東を中心に20店ほど出店しています。

捜索について源玉商事は「責任者がいないのでコメントできない」としています。

Translation

It was suspected that seven Chinese employees working at "Bairan", a Chinese restaurant in Kanagawa prefecture popular for making yakisoba by using a unique cooking method, was undertaking a business that was not permitted by the status of residence. On the 9th, the police arrested the employees on suspicion of violating the Immigration Control Act, and was searching for a company that had operated as a related party.

The search was conducted on "Gentama Shoji" in Naka-ku of Yokohama which operated "Bairan"; and about 20 Kanagawa Prefectural Police investigators entered the office in the morning on the 9th.

According to the police, the seven Chinese employees working at stores in Kanagawa and Tokyo were suspected of violating the Immigration Control Act, alleging that they were in charge of the table setting and serving customers etc. that were not permitted by their status of residence.

Police arrested the seven people on the 9th and searched for a company that had operated as a related party.

Some of the employees explained that “the company had applied for the status of residence”, and the police conducted an investigation on suspecting that the company was using fraud in hiring.

"Bairan" was a popular Chinese restaurant famous for yakisoba that was made with a unique cooking method. It was often introduced on TV programs; and according to its website there were about 20 stores centering around the Kanto region.

Regarding the search, Gentama Shoji said, "We can't comment because the person in charge is not available."

              So, the Japanese police is keen to ensure that no foreigners are working illegally in Japan.

2020年9月16日 星期三

中國第一個國産核反應堆開始裝載燃料

 Recently Yahoo News reported the following:

China’s First Homegrown Nuclear Reactor Begins Loading Fuel

Bloomberg News

Bloomberg September 6, 2020, 7:16 p.m. PDT

(Bloomberg) -- China’s homegrown nuclear technology took a significant step forward as a Hualong One reactor began loading fuel for the first time.

China National Nuclear Power Co., a unit of China National Nuclear Corp., said fuel loading started at the Fuqing No. 5 reactor, the first to use the domestic technology, on Sept. 4 after securing an operating license from the nation’s Ministry of Ecology & Environment, according a statement on its WeChat account. No timeline was given for starting up the reactor.

Hualong One development is being closely watched in the battle for the nation’s next-generation nuclear power systems. Its success could mean a nuclear revival in China that would have little to do with western developers including Westinghouse Electric Co. from the U.S. and France’s Electricite de France SA.

China had almost 49 gigawatts of nuclear power installed as of 2019 and should get into the mid-fifties this year. GlobalData Plc predicts it will pass France as the world’s No. 2 nuclear generator in 2022 and claim the top spot from the U.S. four years after that.

Beijing gave the green light to four Hualong One reactors last year in a clear sign of support, ending a three-year freeze on new approvals caused by the government’s consideration of different technologies and the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. Two more projects that will use Hualong One designs, with a combined cost of $10 billion, were approved last week.

The country started up the world’s first next-generation reactors in 2018, including four AP1000 units designed by Westinghouse as well as a project using EDF’s EPR technology.

Translation

(彭博社)- 隨著華龍一號反應堆首次開始裝載燃料,中國國産的核技術向前邁出了重要的一步。

根據其微信賬的聲明, 中国核工有限公司(China National Nuclear Corporation) 的其中一中國國家核電公司,在獲得了中國生態與環境部的運行許可證後,於94日首次在福清5號反應堆中開始裝載燃料,這是第一個使用國技術的反應堆。但它沒有交代動反應器的時間表。

在中國下一代核電系統之戰中,華龍一號的發展正受到密切關注。它的成功可能意味著中國的核復興與西方開發商再無關連,包括美國的西屋電氣公司(Westinghouse Electric Co)和法國的Electricite de France SA

截至2019年,中國已安裝了將近49吉瓦的核電,並將於今年進入五十多吉瓦。 GlobalData Plc預測,它將在2022年超越法國成為世界第二大核電生國,並在此後四年內取代美國的第一把交椅。

去年,北京為四個華龍一號反應堆開了綠燈,明確表示了支持,結束了為期三年的凍結,這是由於政府考慮到不同的技術以及與美國的貿易糾紛導致的新批准。另外兩個將使用華龍一號的設計的項目在上週已獲許可,總成本達到了100億美元。

中國於2018動了世界上第一台新一代反應堆,其中包括由西屋公司(Westinghouse)設計的4AP1000機組, 以及一個採用EDFEPR技術的項目。

              So, it shows that China has the capacity to fully design and build its own nuclear reactors to generate electricity. Probably it will export this technology to overseas eventually.

 

Note: The Hualong One (華龍一號) was developed by the China General Nuclear Power Group (CGNPG) and the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC). In December 2015 China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (CGN) and China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) agreed to create Hualong International Nuclear Power Technology Co as a joint venture to promote the Hualong One in overseas markets which was officially launched in March 2016.

2020年9月15日 星期二

北京可能對煤炭的依賴比石油更甚

 Recently Yahoo News reported the following:

Beijing May Be More Addicted to Coal Than Oil

David Fickling

Bloomberg September 5, 2020, 5:00 p.m. PDT

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- There’s one surprise entrant in the group of oil companies announcing plans this year for how they’ll reduce emissions: PetroChina Co.

China’s oil companies, unlike their peers in the U.S. and particularly Europe, don’t traditionally treat climate targets as a major issue. Beijing, after all, isn’t even promising to hit its emissions peak until 2030.

The large fund managers that have been pressuring Western oil companies to improve their carbon commitments don’t make much difference, either. PetroChina’s chairman, Dai Houliang, is a Communist bureaucrat whose more significant job is party secretary of state-owned parent China National Petroleum Corp. His main role at PetroChina is to make sure it plays its part in guaranteeing energy security, one of Beijing’s most critical issues. As shareholders will no doubt be bitterly aware, their interests are neither here nor there.

So PetroChina’s announcement in its half-year results last week that it would seek a “near-zero” target for emissions by 2050 is unexpected. With China preparing its 14th five-year plan — probably the most crucial document in determining whether the planet can avoid devastating climate change — that might be taken as a sign that the winds of change are blowing through Beijing.

It’s probably best not to get too excited, though. In most countries, the chief objective is to minimize reliance on the worst-polluting of fossil fuels: coal. In China, however, bureaucrats are more preoccupied with self-sufficiency, so limiting oil imports is a bigger concern. In that sense, PetroChina’s announcement may just be further confirmation that it’s national security considerations, rather than climate, that’s driving energy policy in Zhongnanhai.

Have a look at what’s happening to PetroChina’s core business and it’s obvious why the company may have other reasons for pivoting to renewables. Oil output from its domestic wells has been more or less flat for four years, despite strong demand growth. While gas production has increased in line with government policy, the cost has been enormous, as we’ve written: Three-year average all-in finding and development costs for its petroleum wells are running at $21.74 a barrel, well above most Western oil majors.

PetroChina isn’t alone in this. Getting more hydrocarbons out of China’s unpromising soil has been getting harder for some time. Despite domestic demand increasing by about a third between 2015 and 2019, production from local wells fell 11%. As a result, the country went from importing 31% of its crude in 2002 to 72% last year, at a cost of some $220 billion.

There’s no shortage of policy ambition to reduce this dependence. China has some of the world’s most generous and long-standing subsidies for electric vehicles, nearly half the world’s electric car fleet and about 99% of its electric buses. Concerns that a rival power could turn off the lights by blockading the Strait of Malacca in the event of war also appear to have driven the construction of a multibillion-dollar pipeline to the coast of Myanmar.

Coal is a very different picture. Thanks to vast domestic reserves and demand that’s down about 9.2% since peaking in 2013, China has consistently been able to source around 95% of its solid carbon domestically. Just last year it completed a 1,814 kilometer (1,127 mile) railway to shift soot south from its main mining regions north and west of Beijing toward destinations further south, which have traditionally been dependent on imports. Premier Li Keqiang has repeatedly promoted “cleaner and more efficient use of coal” in speeches about the country’s energy policy.

Solid fuel still has problems in China. The gradual deregulation of the country’s power market is resulting in spot prices in key provinces far below costs for coal-fired power stations, according to BloombergNEF analyst Hanyang Wei — though their dependence on long-term power purchase contracts will soften that blow for a while. Despite having some 98.5 gigawatts of new coal-fired power stations under construction, the generation sector has been plagued with overcapacity for years, too. As a whole, the country’s fleet runs less than half the time, levels at which it’s hard to turn a profit. Nonetheless, in contrast to China’s relatively strong government policies to limit oil demand, coal remains a favored sector.

That’s a tragic mistake. If China is worried about energy security, there’s no type of power less import-dependent than renewables. More to the point, emissions are a present and future danger to the Chinese people. Some 47,240 lives each year have been saved by a crackdown on particulate emissions between 2013 and 2017, according to one study. The devastation wrought by this summer’s flooding of the Yangtze is a small foretaste of what's to come in a future where higher global temperatures lead to heavier, more damaging rainfall episodes.

PetroChina’s near-zero ambition may be less than meets the eye. Its peers in the state-owned coal and power sector would still do well to match — and exceed — it.

Translation

(彭博社觀點)- 在今年宣布如何減少排放的計石油公司中, 有一個令人驚訝參與者 -- 中國石油公司PetroChina Co.

中國的石油公司與美國, 尤其是歐洲的石油公司不同,傳統上並不將氣候目標視為主要問題,畢竟,北京甚至不承諾在會在2030年達到排放峰

大型基金經理一直在向西方石油公司施壓以提高其碳排放承諾但也沒有做出太大的分別。中石油董事長戴厚良是共黨官僚,其更重要的工作是作為國有母公司中國石油天然氣集團公司黨委書記。他在中石油的主要職責是確保他在保障能源安全方面發可揮應有的作用,這是北京最關鍵的問題之一。毫無疑問股東們會痛苦地意識到,這是與他們的利益無關。

因此,中石油在上周宣布的半年度業績中,將在2050年之前尋求“零排放”的目標是出乎意料的。因為中國正在準備第十四個五年計 -- 這可能是決定地球是否能實現這一目標的最關鍵文件, 去避免破壞性的氣候變化 -- 亦可能被視為變化之風正在席捲北京。

不過,我們最好不要太興奮。在大多數國家,其主要目標是在最大程度地減少對化石燃料染最嚴重的煤炭的依賴;而在中國,官僚主義者更注重自給自足,因此要限制了石油進口是一個更大的問題。從這個意義上講,中石油的公告可能只是在進一步確認,國家安全考慮而非氣候因素正在推動中南海的能源政策。

看看中石油的核心業務正在發生什麼,就很明顯地顯出該公司為何還有其他原因要去轉向可再生能源的。儘管需求強勁增長,但其國油井的石油量四年來只是基本持平。儘管天然氣量隨著政府政策的增長而增加,但代價卻是巨大的 : 正如我們所寫的那樣,根據政府政策而增加的成本是巨大的:其石油井的三年​​平均的發現和開發成本為每桶21.74美元,遠高於大多數西方石油巨頭。

在這方面中石油還不是個單一事件。在一段時期以來,要從中國窮脊的土壤中獲取更多的碳化合物變得越來越困難,儘管2015年至2019年間國需求增長了約三分之一,但當地油井的量卻下降了11%。結果是該國的原油進口量從2002年的31%增至去年的72%,耗資約2200億美元。

中國有不少減低這種依賴的政策想望。中國擁有世界上最慷慨,最長期的電動汽車補貼,有近一半的世界電動汽車車隊以及約99%的電動客車。擔心敵對勢力如果在戰爭發生時會封鎖馬六甲海峽來關掉供應,也似乎驅使了建設通往緬甸海岸的數十億美元的供油管道。

煤炭的情況截然不同。得益於龐大的國儲量和自2013年達到頂峰以來, 需求下降了約9.2%,中國一直能在國供應約95%的固體碳。僅去年一年就完成了1,814公里(1,127公里)鐵路,以將碳從北京北部和西部的主要礦區向南移送至傳統上依賴進口的目的地。李克強總理在有關該國能源政策的演中一再提倡 “更清潔,更高效地使用煤炭”

中國的固體燃料仍然存在問題。BloombergNEF 分析師 Hanyang Wei表示,由於該國電力市場的逐漸放鬆管制, 導致重點省份的現貨價格遠低於燃煤電站的成本 -- 儘管它們依賴長期購電合同將能減輕這一打擊。儘管有98.5吉瓦的新建燃煤電廠正在建設中,但發電行業多年來也一直受到能過剩的困擾。總體而言,該國的發電行業總編制運行時間是不到一半。然而,與中國相對強力限製石油需求的政府政策相比,煤炭仍然是一個受青睞的行業。

這是一個悲劇性的錯誤。如果中國擔心能源安全,那麼沒有什麼能源比再生能源更不依賴進口。更重要的是,排放是中國人民現在和將來的危險。一項研究顯示, 通過2013年至2017年間的嚴厲打擊顆粒物排放, 每年挽救了47,240條生命。今年夏天長江水災造成的破壞只是對全球氣溫升高導致的未來的一個小預兆,全球氣溫升高會導致更大,更具有破壞性的降雨事件。

中國石油的近乎零的指望可能不足以吸引關注。但在國有煤炭和電力行業的同輩,仍然可以很好地做出匹配,甚至超越它。

              So, this article shows that China has to import oil to support its manufacturing industry. For China, coal is cheap and its supply is guaranteed while oil is expensive and its import could not be guaranteed when international crises arise.

2020年9月14日 星期一

中國計劃擴大對芯片行業的支持以對抗特朗普

 Recently Yahoo Business On-line published the following:

China to Plan Sweeping Support for Chip Sector to Counter Trump

Bloomberg News

Bloomberg September 3, 2020, 2:04 a.m. PDT

(Bloomberg) -- China is planning a sweeping set of new government policies to develop its domestic semiconductor industry and counter Trump administration restrictions, conferring the same kind of priority on the effort it accorded to building its atomic capability, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

 Beijing is preparing broad support for so-called third-generation semiconductors for the five years through 2025, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing government deliberations. A suite of measures to bolster research, education and financing for the industry has been added to a draft of the country’s 14th five-year plan, which will be presented to the country’s top leaders in October, the people said.

China’s top leaders will gather next month to lay out their economic strategy for the next half decade, including efforts to ramp up domestic consumption and make critical technology at home. President Xi Jinping has pledged an estimated $1.4 trillion through 2025 for technologies ranging from wireless networks to artificial intelligence. Semiconductors are fundamental to virtually every component of China’s technology ambitions -- and an increasingly aggressive Trump administration threatens to cut off their supply from abroad.

The Chinese leadership realizes that semiconductors underpin all advanced technologies, and that it can no longer dependably rely on American supplies,” said Dan Wang, technology analyst at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics. “In the face of stricter U.S. restrictions on chip access, China’s response can only be to keep pushing its own industry to develop.”

Shares in several major Chinese chipmakers gained. Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co. finished 4.3% higher in Hong Kong. On mainland bourses, Will Semiconductor Ltd. -- the second most valuable listed Chinese chip firm -- rose almost 10%. Xiamen Changelight Co. closed 14% up while Focus Lightings Tech Co. jumped 5.6%.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which is responsible for drafting the tech-related goals, did not reply to a request for comment.

China Still Buying $300 Billion of Chips From U.S., Elsewhere

China imports more than $300 billion worth of integrated circuits each year and its semiconductor developers rely on U.S.-made chip design tools and patents, as well as critical manufacturing technologies from U.S. allies. But deteriorating ties between Beijing and Washington have made it increasingly difficult for Chinese companies to source components and chipmaking technologies from overseas.

The U.S. government has blacklisted dozens of China’s tech companies so they can’t buy American parts, and slapped bans on ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok and Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s WeChat. In the case of technology giant Huawei Technologies Co., the Trump administration sanctioned the company and pressed allies to ban the company’s equipment from their telecom networks.

This month, Huawei, the country’s largest handset maker, will even lose access to chips from the likes of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. under new American regulations that prohibit suppliers anywhere in the world from working with the company if those suppliers use American equipment. The tighter rules have raised the urgency of building domestic alternatives in Beijing.

Third-generation semiconductors are mainly chipsets made of materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride. They can operate at high frequency and in higher power and temperature environments, and are widely used in fifth-generation radio frequency chips, military-grade radars and electric vehicles.

Since no single country now dominates the fledgling, third-generation technology, China’s gamble is its corporations can compete if they accelerate research into the field now. Global leaders such as U.S.-based CREE Inc. and Japan’s Sumitomo Electric Industries Ltd. are just beginning to grow this business, while Chinese tech giants such as Sanan Optoelectronics Co. Ltd. and state-owned China Electronics Technology Group Corp. have made inroads on third-generation chipsets.

The country’s other chipmakers, which include Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., Will Semiconductor Ltd. and National Silicon Industry Group Co., may benefit more broadly from the state support.

This is a sector about to see explosive growth,” Alan Zhou, managing partner of Fujian-based chip investment fund An Xin Capital Co., told an industry forum last week. Because of China’s increasing demand and investment, this is an area that could create a “world-class Chinese chip giant.”

Translation

(彭博社)- 據知情人士稱,中國正在計劃制定一系列新的政府政策,以發展其國半導體業並應對特朗普政府的制裁,將給它相同於已賦予建設原子能的同等優先權的努力。

要求不被識別在討論政府審議的知情人士,北京正在為到2025五年準備廣泛支持所謂的第三代半導體。知情人士又,該國第十四個五年計劃的草案中增加了一系列措施,以加強該行業的研究,教育和融資。該計劃將於十月份提交給該國最高領導人。

中國高層領導人將在下個月聚會,制定下一個五年的經濟戰略,包括努力擴大國消費並在國關鍵技術。習近平主席已承諾到2025年向由無線網絡到人工智能等技術領域投入約1. 4萬億美元。半導體幾乎是中國技術雄心的基本組成部分-日益激進的特朗普政府威脅要切斷中國從國外的供應。

研究公司Gavekal Dragonomics的技術分析師王丹:“中國領導人意識到,半導體是所有先進技術的基礎,它不再能可靠地依靠美國的供應。”面對美國對存取芯片的更嚴格限制,中國的對策只能是繼續推動自己的業發展。”

幾家中國主要芯片製造商的股票上漲。上海復旦微電子集團有限公司在香港上漲了4.3%。在大陸交易所,第二大最有價的上市中國芯片公司威爾半導體有限公司(Will Semiconductor Ltd.)上漲了近10%。廈門Changelight有限公司收盤上漲14%,而Focus Lightings Tech Co.上漲5.6%。

負責起草與技術目標有關的的工業和信息技術部對置評請求未有回覆。


 中國仍然從美國和其他地方購買3,000億美元的芯片

 中國每年進口價超過3000億美元的集成電路,其半導體開發商依靠美國製造的芯片設計工具和專利以及美國盟國的關鍵製造技術。但是北京和華盛頓之間關係的惡化使中國公司越來越難以從海外採購組件和芯片製造技術。

美國政府已將數十家中國科技公司列入黑名單,使它們無法購買美國零件,並對ByteDance Ltd.TikTok和騰訊控股有限公司的微信施行禁令。對於科技巨頭華為技術有限公司(Huawei Technologies Co.),特朗普政府制裁了該公司,並敦促盟國禁止該公司的設備進入其電信網絡。

本月,中國最大的手機製造商華為甚至將失去台灣半導體製造公司(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)等公司提供的芯片的使用權。美國新法規禁止全球任何地方的供應商使用美國設備與該公司合作。嚴格的規定提高了在北京建設國替代品的緊迫性。

第三代半導體主要是由例如碳化和氮化鎵等材料製成的芯片組。它們可以在高頻以及更高的功率和溫度環境下工作,並廣泛用於第五代射頻芯片,軍用雷達和電動汽車。

由於現在還沒有哪個國家能在初步新興的第三代技術中佔主導地位,因此,中國的賭博是如果它們現在加快研究速度,它們的公司就可以競爭。全球領導者例如美國CREE公司和日本住友電氣工業有限公司等只是剛剛開始發展這項業務,而中國科技巨頭三安光電有限公司和國有的中國電子科技集團公司等已經開始進軍第三代芯片組上。

該國其他芯片製造商,包括半導體製造國際公司,威爾半導體有限公司和硅产业,可能會從政府的支持中獲得更大的收益。

福建的芯片投資基金安信資本有限公司(An Xin Capital Co.)的執行合夥人周艾倫(Alan Zhou)在上週的一次行業論壇上表示“這是一個會有爆炸性增長的行業”。由於中國不斷增長的需求和投資,這一領域可能會打造出“世界一流的中國芯片巨人”。

              So, let’s wait and see whether China’s increasing demand and investment could create a “world-class Chinese chip giant.”

2020年9月13日 星期日

中國的“新”經濟自給自足戰略是否只是對舊觀念的改造?這位長期中國觀察家如此認為

Yahoo News on 28 August 2020 reported the following:

Is China’s ‘new’ strategy of economic self-reliance just a rehashing of an old idea? This long-time China watcher thinks so

Frank Tang

South China Morning Post August 28, 2020, 3:55 a.m. PDT

China’s “dual circulation” strategy to steer it through a changing world is a new cloak over an old idea aimed at rebalancing the nation’s economy away from exports towards consumption, according to Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University and a veteran China observer.

The plan unveiled by President Xi Jinping in a strategic repositioning of the nation amid rising tensions with the United States, thrusting “internal circulation” to the forefront of China’s economy and shifting it away from the export-led model that has underpinned decades of growth.

This is not so different from former Premier Wen Jiabao’s speech in 2007 in which he promised China would make every effort to rebalance the domestic economy towards consumption,” Pettis told the South China Morning Post in an interview earlier this week. “The trade war [with the US] and Covid-19 just make it more urgent.”

The new strategy has stirred concern China will become more inward-looking as it seeks to offset growing external hostilities, though Xi has said that China will keep opening its economy to international businesses.

When they talk about internal circulation, they actually mean they need more domestic consumption, and very different types and more productive domestic investment

Michael Pettis

Beijing’s quest to build a vibrant domestic market can be dated back to the late 1990s, when then-Premier Zhu Rongji decided to “expand domestic demand” after the Asian Financial Crisis took a toll on Chinese overseas shipments.

The idea gained currency again after the global financial crisis in 2008, when Beijing rolled out a massive stimulus package to bolster growth.

The “dual circulation” strategy is being implemented at a time when global trade is shrinking after the coronavirus outbreak. China’s major trade partners, notably the United States, are hardening in their attitude towards the nation over issues ranging from trade to the South China Seas, casting shadow over its future position in the global economy.

Pettis, who has witnessed China’s economic and financial changes over the past two decades, is one of a small group of foreign observers who has seen policy changes under presidents Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping.

When they talk about internal circulation, they actually mean they need more domestic consumption, and very different types and more productive domestic investment,” Pettis said.

His comments are in line with a mainstream view that the global financial crisis forced China to reduce its reliance on exports. China’s answer then was a state-led spending spree on infrastructure, but the economy is running out of steam amid a growing pile of debt and falling productivity.

China is now eyeing consumer spending to put growth on a sustainable track.

Xi said at a symposium earlier this week that China’s shift to its domestic market has already happened, saying that domestic investment and consumption accounted for virtually of the country’s growth in seven out of 10 past years, with the role of net exports declining.

However, China’s efforts to forge a large enough market at home to sustain its production capabilities could be an uphill battle, Pettis said.

Finding a substantial amount of productive investment is going to be quite difficult,” he said.

China’s private investment is restricted by exports and has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic.

Private investment fell 5.7 per cent in the January-July period, much larger than the overall fixed asset investment decline of 1.6 per cent, data from China’s statistics bureau showed.

Chinese consumption has also been weak, with retail sales falling 9.9 per cent in the first seven months from a year earlier, largely due to consumers’ worries about their jobs and income.

The Peking University professor said the solution to China’s income problems is the same as it was 10 years ago: households should receive a larger share of the fruits of the country’s growth.

The share taken by ordinary Chinese must go up significantly. But that’s a political problem,” he said.

Translation

北京大學金融學教授,資深中國觀察家邁克爾·佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)表示,中國引導其適應在不斷變化的世界的“雙循環”戰略是去應用舊觀念的一種新遮掩布,旨在使中國經濟從出口轉向消費,從而再實現平衡。

在與美國之間日益緊張的局勢中, 習近平主席公佈了一計劃對國家進行戰略重新定位,將“部循環”推向中國經濟的最前線, 並將其支撐數十年經濟增長的出口導向模式作出轉向。

佩蒂斯在本週早些時候接受《南華早報》採訪時:“這與前總理溫家寶在2007年的講話中沒什麼不同,他在講話中承諾中國將盡一切努力使國經濟向消費平衡。”只因(與美國的)貿易戰和Covid-19疫情使之更加緊迫。”

儘管習近平表示,中國將繼續向國際企業開放經濟,但新戰略引起了人們的擔憂,即是中國在尋求抵消日益增長的外部敵意時, 將變得更加向。

當他們談論部循環時,實際上意味著他們需要更多的國消費,非常不同的類型和更多的生性國投資。

邁克爾·佩蒂斯

北京尋求建立充滿活力的國市場的歷史可以追溯到1990年代末,那時亞洲金融危機對中國的海外運輸造成了損失,當時的總理朱基決定“擴大國需求”。

2008年全球金融危機爆發後,這個想法再次流行開來。當時,中國推出了大規模的刺激計劃以提振經濟增長。

在冠狀病毒爆發後全球貿易正在萎縮之際, “雙循環”戰略正在實施。中國的主要貿易夥伴,特別是美國,由貿易到南中國海等問題上對中國的態度都硬了,為其未來在全球經濟中的地位蒙上了陰影。

佩蒂斯是過去二十年來目睹中國經濟和金融變化的見證者,是一小撮外國觀察員之一,他們在江澤民,胡錦濤和習近平主席的領導下已經看到了政策變化。

佩蒂斯:“當他們談論部流通時,實際上意味著他們需要更多的國消費,非常不同的類型和更多的生性國投資,”。

他的評論與主流觀點一致,即全球金融危機迫使中國減少對出口的依賴。當時中國的答案是由國家主導進行大量基建消費,但在債務不斷增加和生力下降的情況下,經濟動力已經耗盡。

中國現正在着眼消費者支出,以使增長步入可持續發展軌道。

習近平在本週早些時候的一次座談會上,中國已經轉向國市場,他,過去十年中,有七年的國投資和消費幾乎構成了中國的增長,而淨出口的作用正在下降。

佩蒂斯,但中國為在國建立足大的市場以維持其生能力而進行的努力可能是一場艱苦的戰鬥。

:“要找到大量的生性投資將非常困難。”

中國的私人投資受到出口的限制,並受到了冠狀病毒大流行的嚴重打擊。

中國統計局數據顯示,1月至7月期間,私人投資下降了5.7%,遠高於固定資投資總額的1.6%的下降幅度。

中國的消費也很疲軟,前七個月的零售額較去年同期下降了9.9%,這主要是由於消費者對工作和收入的擔憂。

北京大學教授,解決中國收入問題的方法與10年前解決方案相同:各個家庭應從中國經濟增長成果中獲得更大的份額。

:“普通中國人所佔的份額必須大大提高。但這是一個政治問題”

       So, Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at thPeking University and a veteran China observer has noted that China is changing its economic policy.

2020年9月12日 星期六

"Ogasawarajijimi" butterfly native to the Ogasawara Islands – the specimen for breeding were all dead

 Recently NHK News On-line reported the following:

小笠原諸島固有のチョウ「オガサワラシジミ」繁殖用個体全滅

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小笠原諸島でしか生息が確認されておらず、絶滅の危険性が極めて高いチョウ「オガサワラシジミ」について、環境省と東京都は繁殖を続けてきましたが、27日までに繁殖用の個体がすべて死んだと発表しました。野生でもおととし以来、生息が確認されておらず、環境省は「種の保存にとって非常に危機的な状況だ」としています。

「オガサワラシジミ」は、小笠原諸島でしか生息が確認されていない固有種のチョウで、国の天然記念物に指定されています。

外来種の影響などで急激に数が減ったため、平成12年には環境省が絶滅危惧種に指定しました。

種の保存に向けて東京都が15年前に繁殖させる取り組みを始め、環境省も都から個体を譲り受けて去年10月から繁殖を続けていましたが、今月25日までにすべての成虫と幼虫が死んだということです。

環境省は、近親交配によって有害な遺伝子が蓄積され、オスの精子の量が極端に減ったことが原因の一つではないかとしています。

「オガサワラシジミ」は、野生でも、おととし6月、小笠原諸島の母島で見つかったのを最後に生息が確認されておらず、仮に絶滅すれば、日本固有のチョウとしては初めてになります。

環境省は、「種の保存にとって非常に危機的な状況だ。小笠原諸島でモニタリングを継続し、生息が確認されれば速やかに保護して保全に取り組む」としています。

Translation

About the butterfly "Ogasawarajijimi" which had been confirmed to have lived only in the Ogasawara Islands and was having a very high risk of extinction, the Ministry of the Environment and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government continued to breed them. It was announced on the 27th that all the specimen for bleeding were dead. No habitat had been confirmed in the wild starting from two years ago, and the Ministry of the Environment said that they were "in a very critical situation for species conservation."

"Ogasawaraishijimi" was a native species of butterfly that had been confirmed only to live in the Ogasawara Islands and was designated as a natural memorial item of the country.

Since its number had decreased sharply due to the influence of alien species, the Ministry of Environment designated it as an endangered species in 2000.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government began efforts to breed this species 15 years ago for species conservation, and the Ministry of the Environment had inherited from the Tokyo Metropolitan the specimen and continued to breed them from last October, but by the 25th of this month, all adults and larvae were dead.

The Ministry of the Environment argued that one of the causes was that the harmful gene had accumulated by inbreeding, and the amount of sperm in male was seriously reduced.

About "Ogasawaraishijimi", even in the wild, having found it on the Hahajima Retto of the Ogasawara Islands in June two years ago could not confirm that it was their last habitat; and if it became extinct, it could be the first butterfly native to Japan to do so.

According to the Ministry of the Environment, “the conservation of the species is in a very critical situation. We will continue our monitoring in the Ogasawara Islands, and if their habitat is confirmed, we will promptly protect and work on conservation”.

              So, it seems that the Japanese is keen to preserve the species.