2020年9月22日 星期二

中國尋求通過超級電力綜合體去降低對煤炭依賴

Recently Yahoo Business reported the following:

China Seeks to Dent Coal Addiction With Mega Power Complexes

Bloomberg News

Bloomberg September 6, 2020, 8:05 p.m. PDT

(Bloomberg) -- Imagine a power plant built next to a coal mine but also operating wind turbines and solar panels. The facility hosts batteries to store electricity when supply is in excess. The main source of power could flip from the fossil fuel to clean energy, depending on weather and price.

Spending billions of dollars to integrate power generation in this kind of mega-complex is now up for discussion in China, the world’s largest consumer of coal and its biggest promoter of renewables. While housing the two in the same facility creates obvious efficiencies, there’s a second purpose that has the potential to loosen the dirtiest fossil fuel’s choke-hold on China’s energy generation -- like a cuckoo snuggling up in another bird’s nest.

This is part of a national strategy to support battery, wind and solar demand, and develop these key strategic technologies and the corresponding supply chains,” according to Alex Whitworth, research director at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “So in a way, it can be seen as a government-directed cross-subsidy from fossil fuel profits to new energy technology.”

It’s a theme playing out at the corporate level, as coal miners look to add clean energy assets, and utilities shift spending to renewables. The national plan is to reduce China’s reliance on coal to cut pollution and mitigate global heating, but it’s slow going. Beijing wants to derive 20% of its energy consumption from non-fossil fuels by 2030, compared with about 15% last year.

China’s project-based approach to combining dirty and clean energy may be unique, and the National Energy Administration has begun seeking opinions on whether such mega-complexes are viable. That process will take about a month. Crucially, its starting point is that the amount of coal power involved would be strictly controlled, suggesting that coal’s role in the projects isn’t intended to be a dominant one. And the nation has some natural advantages, given that its major mining regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang also have a lot of renewable power sources on hand.

Periodic Nature

Clean energy’s biggest challenge is its periodic nature, which disrupts the daily planning of operations at the power grid. Deploying it widely with a mandate to add storage could reduce the costs of utility-scale batteries, which are still being scaled up. Meanwhile, the coal backstop would ensure that power supply is continuous.

The cost reductions for reliable green power resulting from these mega complexes could put a dent in coal power in the long run, said Li Daixin, an analyst at BloombergNEF.

But many questions around cost, time-lines and efficacy remain unanswered. “Energy storage, for example, is a major component of the integration strategy, yet a clear revenue stream for these projects remains elusive,” said Megan Jenkins, a senior research analyst at IHS Markit.

And nobody is imagining the effort will be a silver bullet to China’s coal addiction. “The impact to the power market will be more long-term,” said Morningstar Inc. analyst Jennifer Song. “The key purpose is to shift the energy mix toward renewables.”

And it could take the NEA months or even years to issue guidelines on the complexes even after they are deemed viable. But the shift to at least combine renewables generation with energy storage is proceeding in any case, with China Huaneng Group the latest to reveal such a project in Inner Mongolia with an investment of 5 billion yuan ($732 million).

Translation

(彭博社)- 想像一下一個建在煤礦旁的發電廠,它的渦輪機同時也用著風力和太陽能電池板。該設施有儲電池在供電過剩時來存儲電量。基於於天氣和價格,主要動力來源可能會從化石燃料轉向清潔能源。

中國目前正在討論用數十億美元將這種大型綜合體發電方法集成一起,這是世界上最大的煤炭消費國和最大的可再生能源促進者。雖然將兩者放在同一個設施中可以明顯提高效率,但還有另一個目的,即有可能除解中國能源生產被最骯髒的化石燃料對的束縛,就像布穀鳥依偎在另一雀鳥巢。

Wood Mackenzie Ltd. 研究總監亞歷克斯•惠特沃思(Alex Whitworth)表示:這是支持電池,風能和太陽能需求, 並開發這些關鍵戰略技術和相應供應鏈的國家戰略的一部分” 所以在某種程度上 被視為由政府指導的從化石燃料利潤到新能源技術的交叉補貼。”

隨著煤礦工人尋求增加清潔能源資,公用事業將支出轉移到可再生能源上,這是企業層面的主題。國家計劃是減少中國對煤炭的依賴,以減少染和減輕全球暖化,但進展是緩慢。北京希望到2030年有20%的能源消耗來自非化石燃料,而去年側約為15%。

中國項目化的結合髒和清潔能源相的方法可能是獨特的,國家能源局 (NEA)已經開始就這種大型綜合體是否可行徵求意見。這個過程大約需要一個月。至關重要的是,其起步點是嚴格控制所涉及的燃煤發電量,這表明燃煤在項目中的作用並不是要成為主導。鑑於蒙古和新疆等主要礦區也有大量可再生能源,故該國家具有一些自然優勢。

大自然的週期性

清潔能源面臨的最大挑戰是其周期性,這會擾亂電網的日常運營計劃。強制性地廣泛部署增加存儲空間以可以降低仍在擴大規模中的公用事業級電池的成本。同時,有煤炭支持將確保持續的電力供應。

 彭博新能源財經(BloombergNEF)的分析師李代新表示,降低從這些大型綜合設施中獲得的可靠綠色電力的成本, 從長遠來看可能會減省煤炭電力。

但是圍繞成本,時間表和效力的許多問題仍未得到解答。 IHS Markit資深研究分析師梅根·詹金斯(Megan Jenkins)表示: “例如,儲能是整合戰略的主要組成部分,但這些項目的明確收入來源仍然難以找到。”

沒有人估計這項努力可以成為解決中國依賴煤炭的靈丹妙藥。 Morningstar Inc.分析師Jennifer Song對電力市場的影響將是長期的。”主要目的是將能源結構轉向可再生能源。”

即使在綜合體被認為可行之後,NEA可能要花費數月甚至數年的時間才能發布它的指南。但是無論如何,把可再生能源發電與儲能結合起來已經在進行中; 中國華能集團(China Huaneng Group)最新透露了在蒙古投資50億元人民幣(7.32億美元)在這一種項目。

        So, China is reviewing it policy on using more renewable energy. The production of renewable energy has one clear advantage for China: it will not be subject to the constraints or embargo of foreign countries.

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