隨著全球緊張局勢加劇，中國正在建構經濟堡壘（2/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

China Builds an Economic Fortress as Global Tensions Rise (2/2)

Beijing says the changes are needed for national security, but they could complicate efforts by Chinese companies to find growth overseas.

The NYT - By Alexandra Stevenson and Murphy Zhao - Reporting from Hong Kong. Alexandra Stevenson is the Shanghai bureau chief for The Times, reporting on China’s economy and society.

Published June 5, 2026

Updated June 6, 2026

(continue)

Green Light, Red Light

What is new in the rules unveiled this week is the effort to slow the overseas expansion of Chinese companies.

The measures restrict the movement of certain talent in sectors deemed sensitive, though Beijing has not defined which sectors qualify. They also give officials broader authority to review the movement of capital, including the power to force investors to sell shares or halt investments if national security concerns arise.

The rules also lay the legal groundwork for regulators to bar foreign entities from investing or operating in China, including expelling them from the country, in retaliation for actions taken by their governments against Chinese investments.

To some experts, the most striking effect of these rules is that they could constrain the ambitions of Chinese companies when they are under intense pressure to find new markets and the country’s exports are reaching record levels.

“China has been encouraging companies to go overseas to set up production facilities, invest and bypass any constraints that may exist on manufacturing in China,” said Lester Ross, a longtime China expert and senior counsel at Wilmer Hale.

Yet these new rules could complicate that, he added.

Chinese officials are calling the new rules a “milestone” for outbound investment. But for many investors, the vague definition of what constitutes a national security concern has led to significant uncertainty.

Déjà Vu?

The idea that companies or individuals need approval to invest overseas may seem unusual. But China has long restricted money flowing out of the country and currently limits individuals to moving $50,000 abroad each year. That tool has become increasingly important as economic growth has slowed.

Nor is China the first country to screen outbound investment. The Biden administration in 2024 imposed restrictions on U.S. financing of Chinese semiconductor, quantum computing and artificial intelligence sectors.

The European Union has also urged its member states to review investments in those same sensitive sectors.

But unlike the United States and Europe, Beijing has defined national security far more broadly. And its rules are correspondingly more expansive.

For lawyers and trade advisers, the flurry of restrictions from multiple governments signals the end of an era.

The Chinese government cited “profound changes unseen in a century” as justification for the new State Council rules. The argument resonated with Zhou Yong, a lawyer with Junhe, a Chinese law firm.

“From a legal standpoint, the restructuring of international business rules has been brought about by great power competition and technological progress,” Mr. Zhou said.

“China,” he added, “hopes to have some tools of its own.”

Translation

隨著全球緊張局勢加劇，中國正在建構經濟堡壘（2/2）

北京方面稱，這些變革是為了國家安全，但可能會使中國企業在海外尋求成長的努力變得更加複雜

（繼續）

綠燈與紅燈

本周公佈的新規旨在減緩中國企業的海外擴張。

這些措施限制了某些被認為敏感產業的特定人才流動，但北京方面並未明確界定哪些產業屬於敏感產業。這些措施也賦予官員更大的權力來審查資本流動，包括在出現國家安全問題時強制投資者出售股票或停止投資的權力。

這些規則也為監管機構提供了法律依據，使其可以禁止外國實體在中國投資或經營，甚至將其驅逐出境，以報復其政府對中國投資的行動。

一些專家認為，這些規則最顯著的影響在於，它們可能會限制中國企業的雄心壯志，而此時中國企業正面臨著尋找新市場的巨大壓力，而中國出口額正創歷史新高。

長期研究中國問題、Wilmer Hale律師事務所高級顧問Lester Ross表示: 「中國一直鼓勵企業到海外設立生產基地、進行投資，以繞過中國製造業可能存在的各種限制」。

但他補充說，這些新規可能會使情況變得複雜。

中國官員稱這些新規是對外投資的「里程碑」。但對許多投資者而言，國家安全問題的模糊定義導致了極大的不確定性。

似曾相識？

企業或個人需要獲得批准才能進行海外投資的想法或許聽起來有些不尋常。但中國長期以來一直限制資金外流，目前規定個人每年向境外轉移資金不得超過5萬美元。隨著經濟成長放緩，這項措施的重要性日益凸顯。

中國並非第一個審查對外投資的國家。拜登政府在2024年對美國投資中國半導體、量子運算和人工智能領域的計劃實施了限制。

歐盟也敦促其成員國審查在這些敏感領域的投資。

但與美國和歐洲不同，北京對國家安全的定義遠較寬鬆，其相關規定也相應更為廣泛。

對律師和貿易顧問而言，多國政府接連的限制措施標誌著一個時代的終結。

中國政府以「百年未有之大變局」為由，為國務院的新規辯護。這項說法引起了中國Junhe律師事務所律師Zhou Yong的共鳴。

Zhou先生說： “從法律角度來看，國際商業規則的重組是由大國競爭和技術進步帶來的。”

他補充說：“中國希望擁有一些屬於自己的工具。”

So, China is erecting walls to prevent money, technology and companies from leaving the country.  China has announced new rules requiring national security screening for Chinese companies seeking to invest overseas. The move follows regulations introduced in April and taken together, it seems that China is building an economic fortress around its technology and supply chains. Apparently, these restrictions signal the end of globalization.

隨著全球緊張局勢加劇，中國正在建構經濟堡壘（1/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

China Builds an Economic Fortress as Global Tensions Rise (1/2)

Beijing says the changes are needed for national security, but they could complicate efforts by Chinese companies to find growth overseas.

The NYT - By Alexandra Stevenson and Murphy Zhao - Reporting from Hong Kong. Alexandra Stevenson is the Shanghai bureau chief for The Times, reporting on China’s economy and society.

Published June 5, 2026

Updated June 6, 2026

China is erecting walls to prevent money, technology and companies from leaving the country.

This week, the State Council, China’s cabinet, announced new rules requiring national security screening for Chinese companies seeking to invest overseas. The move follows regulations introduced in April that allowed the authorities to intervene when foreign companies tried to relocate supply chains out of China.

Taken together, the measures amount to a new blueprint for the economic fortress China is building around its technology and supply chains amid rising tensions with Europe and the United States.

The rules are another sign that the economic principles of open markets and free trade, which have governed much of the world for decades and helped fuel China’s extraordinary rise, are giving way to a more fragmented era.

From Washington to Brussels, the world’s largest economies are choosing trade barriers over greater economic integration, driven in part by heightened concerns over China’s global dominance in raw materials, manufactured goods and technology, and a surge in Chinese products around the world.

“We’ve moved away from a world where laws made it easier to allow the flow of capital, people, technology and trade to go around,” said Ben Kostrzewa, a partner and trade expert at Hogan Lovells in Hong Kong.

“The Chimerica economy envisioned 20 years ago turned out to be chimerical,” he said, referring to the once-popular portmanteau of China and America.

Beijing has already offered a preview of what this new era could look like. It blocked Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of Manus, an artificial intelligence company founded by Chinese engineers. It told Chinese refineries sanctioned by the United States not to comply. And it ordered a state-backed security equipment company not to cooperate with European Union investigators.

With each action, Beijing edges closer to a confrontation with the United States and Europe.

A Focus on National Security

Chinese policymakers have been building a growing arsenal of export controls, countermeasures and trade penalties in response to tariffs and other restrictions imposed by foreign governments.

The new State Council rules extend that effort to the overseas activities of Chinese companies and outline how Beijing could retaliate against foreign companies and individuals when Chinese investments are restricted.

The rules also give the authorities new powers to scrutinize Chinese companies seeking opportunities abroad, subjecting them to national security reviews that place investments into one of three categories: encouraged, restricted or prohibited.

Part of the motivation for this, lawyers say, is to keep money, talent and intellectual property in fields where China has a competitive edge from leaving the country.

Foreign businesses in China worry the measure could be interpreted broadly enough to include data from Chinese operations, which they must provide to international regulators as part of investigations or investment reviews.

China also clamped down on outbound investment a decade ago, targeting what it called “irrational” deals by corporate giants seeking trophy assets like the Waldorf Astoria. But those interventions were aimed at reducing financial risks at home and largely involved banking regulators scrutinizing company balance sheets.

The new framework is different. Its focus is national security, and the effort is far more coordinated.

(to be continued)

Translation

隨著全球緊張局勢加劇，中國正在建構經濟堡壘（1/2）

北京方面稱，這些變革是為了國家安全，但這可能會使中國企業在海外尋求成長的努力變得更加複雜

中國正在築起高牆，以阻止資金、技術和企業流出中國。

本週，中國國務院宣佈了新的規定，要求對尋求海外投資的中國企業進行國家安全審查。此前，中國於4月出台了相關規定，容許當局在外國公司試圖將供應鏈遷出中國時進行幹預。

總而言之，這些措施構成了中國圍繞其技術和供應鏈構建經濟堡壘的新藍圖，而此時中美關係正日益緊張。

這些規則再次表明，數十年來主導世界大部分地區並助力中國崛起的開放市場和自由貿易的經濟原則，正在讓位給一個更加碎片化的時代。

從華盛頓到布魯塞爾，世界主要經濟體都在選擇設置貿易壁壘，而非加強經濟整合。這在一定程度上是由於人們日益擔憂中國在全球原材料、製成品和技術領域的主導地位，以及中國產品在全球市場的激增。

香港Hogan Lovells律師事務所合夥人兼貿易專家Ben Kostrzewa表示:「我們已經告別了那個法律允許資本、人員、技術和貿易更自由流動的世界」。

「20年前人們所設想的Chimerica經濟 最終被證明是虛幻的」，他指的是曾經流行的中美兩國的合成字。

北京已經提前展現了這新時代的可能面貌。它阻止了Meta以20億美元收購由中國工程師創立的人工智慧公司Manus。它告知受美國制裁的中國煉油廠無需遵守制裁規定。它還命令一家國有保安設備公司不得與歐盟調查人員合作。

北京的每一項舉措都使其與美國和歐洲的對抗更進一步。

聚焦國家安全

為因應外國政府徵收的關稅和其他限制，中國決策者一直在建構日益完善的出口管制、反制措施和貿易懲罰機制。

國務院新規將這項努力擴展到中國企業的海外活動，並概述了當中國投資受到限制時，北京可以如何對外國公司和個人進行報復。

這些規定也賦予當局新的權力，可以審查尋求海外投資機會的中國企業，並對其進行國家安全審查，將投資分為鼓勵、限製或禁止三類。

律師表示，此舉的部分動機是為了防止中國在具有競爭優勢的領域中的資金、人才和知識財產權流出。

在華外資企業擔心，這項措施的解讀可能過於廣義，甚至涵蓋其在中國的業務數據。這些企業必須向國際監管機構提供數據，作為調查或投資審查的一部分。

十年前，中國也曾收緊對外投資，打擊其所謂的「非理性」交易，這些交易通常由企業巨頭尋求收購Waldorf Astoria酒店等標誌性資產。但當時的干預措施旨在降低國內金融風險，主要涉及銀行監理機構對公司資產負債表的審查。

新的框架則有所不同。它的重點是國家安全，而且協調性更強。

（待續）

債券殖利率創2007年以來新高，通漲擔憂加劇（2/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Bond Yields Hit Highest Level Since 2007 as Inflation Fears Set In (2/2)

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hasn’t been this high since the lead-up to the global financial crisis. Across Europe and Asia, yields are also elevated.

The NYT - By Joe Rennison - Emmett Lindner contributed reporting. Joe Rennison writes about financial markets, a beat that ranges from chronicling the vagaries of the stock market to explaining the often-inscrutable trading decisions of Wall Street insiders.

May 19, 2026

(continue)

In Europe, world leaders met on Tuesday to discuss ways to temper inflation, though many in the group were upset about a U.S. decision this week to further ease sanctions on Russian seaborne oil in an attempt to bring down global fuel costs. Some European officials said the move rewarded Russia while its aggression in Ukraine continued.

“I think there is just a lot of fear out there right now and a collective hesitancy to step in front of the sell-off,” said Vail Hartman, a U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets, noting concerns that yields could continue to move higher.

Unlike during last year’s tariff turmoil, Mr. Trump appears less willing to back down over Iran, analysts say. The economy is otherwise in good shape, underpinned by the growth of artificial intelligence and blockbuster corporate profits. The stock market has risen for seven consecutive weeks, hitting record highs along the way.

But the rising rates are also starting to add pressure on stocks. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell about 0.7 percent, its third consecutive daily drop, as investors awaited developments in the tenuous cease-fire in the Iran war. When asked on Tuesday how long Iran had to return to the negotiating table, Mr. Trump said: “Two or three days. Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Maybe early next week. A limited period of time.”

The climbing Treasury yields could complicate Mr. Trump’s other economic priorities, like jump-starting the stalled housing market.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which underpins borrowing costs for mortgages, has also surged higher since the start of the war with Iran.

That yield has risen roughly three-quarters of a percentage point since the war began, to 4.67 percent, its highest level since the start of 2025. The average 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 6.36 percent from below 6 percent before the war, according to data from the housing agency Freddie Mac.

Some of the increasing Treasury yields are driven by anticipation that the Fed will potentially need to raise the short-dated interest rates it controls to try to slow inflation. These expectation are increasing even with the appointment of the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, whom Mr. Trump picked with hopes of lowering rates.

Before the war began, investors had expected the Fed to cut rates at least half a percentage point by January. Now, they have lowered those expectations to a quarter-point rise, based on prices in interest rate futures markets.

“There is a feeling that this is going to get worse before it gets better,” said Joseph Purtell, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, adding that the market is “pricing in some kind of premium for that uncertainty.”

Translation

債券殖利率創2007年以來新高，通漲擔憂加劇（2/2）

 30 年期美國公債殖利率創下自全球金融危機爆發以來的最高水平， 歐洲和亞洲的收益率也同樣居高不下

（繼續）

 世界各國領導人週二在歐洲舉行會議，討論如何抑制通漲。然而，與會的許多人對美國本週決定進一步放寬對俄羅斯海運石油的制裁感到不滿，此舉旨在降低全球燃料價格。一些歐洲官員表示，此舉實際上是在獎勵俄羅斯，而俄羅斯在烏克蘭的侵略行為仍在繼續。

BMO資本市場美國利率策略師Vail Hartman指出人們擔心收益率可能會繼續攀升，並說: 「我認為目前市場瀰漫著恐慌情緒，對於介入集體拋售在猶疑中」。

分析人士稱，與去年的關稅風波不同，特朗普先生似乎不太願意在伊朗問題上做出讓步。除此之外，美國經濟狀況良好，這得益於人工智能的蓬勃發展和企業利潤的飆升。股市已連續七週上漲，並屢創新高。

但利率上升也開始給股市帶來壓力。週二，標普500指數下跌約0.7%，連續第三個交易日下跌，投資人正密切關注伊朗戰爭脆弱的停火協議的進展。週二，當被問及伊朗還有多少時間重返談判桌時，特朗普先生表示：“兩三天。也許是周五、週六、週日。也許是下週初。時間有限。”

不斷攀升的美國公債殖利率可能會使特朗普先生的其他經濟優先事項變得更加複雜，例如重啟停滯不前的房地產市場。

作為抵押貸款成本基準的10年期美國公債殖利率自伊朗戰爭爆發以來也大幅上升。

自戰爭開始以來，該殖利率已上漲約0.75個百分點，達到4.67%，為2025年以來的最高水平。根據住房中介Freddie Mac的數據，30年期抵押貸款的平均利率已從戰前的不到6%升至6.36%。

美國公債殖利率上漲的部分原因是市場預期聯儲局可能需要提高其控制的短期利率以抑制通漲。這些預期仍在上升，即使特朗普任命了新的聯儲局主席凱文沃什（Kevin Warsh）並希望他能降低利率。

在伊朗戰爭爆發前，投資人曾預期聯儲局將在1月至少降息0.5個百分點。如今，根據利率期貨市場的價格，他們已將這項預期下調至升息0.25個百分點。

Neuberger Berman的投資組合經理Joseph Purtell表示：「人們感覺情況會先惡化後好轉」。他還補充說，市場「已經為這種不確定性計入了一定的溢價」。

              So, bond markets are pushing the rates on U.S. Treasuries to levels not seen since the global financial crisis nearly 20 years ago. The rising rates, which are pushing up borrowing costs for governments, homeowners and businesses, could be a critical pressure point for the Trump administration as it continues to pursue its campaign against Iran. I am interested in knowing how and when Trump will end this conflict.

債券殖利率創2007年以來新高，通漲擔憂加劇（1/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Bond Yields Hit Highest Level Since 2007 as Inflation Fears Set In (1/2)

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hasn’t been this high since the lead-up to the global financial crisis. Across Europe and Asia, yields are also elevated.

The NYT - By Joe Rennison - Emmett Lindner contributed reporting. Joe Rennison writes about financial markets, a beat that ranges from chronicling the vagaries of the stock market to explaining the often-inscrutable trading decisions of Wall Street insiders.

May 19, 2026

Bond markets convulsed on Tuesday, pushing the rates on U.S. Treasuries to levels not seen since the global financial crisis nearly 20 years ago, as investors grew increasingly anxious about rising inflation because of the war in Iran.

The yield on the 30-year Treasury note rose to 5.18 percent on Tuesday, its highest level since 2007. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

The rising rates, which are pushing up borrowing costs for governments, homeowners and businesses, could be a critical pressure point for the Trump administration as it continues to pursue its campaign against Iran, which has pushed up oil prices worldwide.

The last time President Trump faced such turmoil in the Treasury market was after he announced in April last year that he would raise tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner. The steepening rates were cited as a primary reason that Mr. Trump later backed down from many of his most draconian proposals.

This time, investors across the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the fallout from the monthslong conflict in the Middle East, where, despite a cease-fire between the United States and Iran, efforts to find a lasting peace deal have stalled.

The yields on 30-year bonds in Canada, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands and Switzerland all traded at their 12-month high on Tuesday. Across the rest of Europe and Asia, the long yield was also elevated

In Britain, the tumult in the government bond market is even more extreme. A leadership crisis facing Prime Minister Keir Starmer has helped push the country’s 30-year bond to its highest level since 1998.

Japan’s 30-year bond yield sits at 4.13 percent, the highest it has ever been, as rising energy prices strain the country’s already struggling economy.

Bond investors around the world are focused on the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the vital shipping lane that before the war had funneled roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply, predominantly to Asia and some parts of Europe.

In the United States, the impact of higher oil prices was reflected in a series of inflation reports last week showing consumer and producer prices both rising at their fastest pace in several years.

Another factor weighing on the Treasury market is last weekend’s summit between Mr. Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Investors’ hopes that the much anticipated meeting would result in China’s help with ending the war in Iran were dashed.

(to be continued)

Translation

債券殖利率創2007年以來新高，通漲擔憂加劇（1/2）

30 年期美國公債殖利率創下自全球金融危機爆發以來的最高水平， 歐洲和亞洲的收益率也同樣居高不下

週二，債券市場劇烈震盪，美國公債殖利率飆升至近20年前全球金融危機以來的最高水平。投資者對伊朗戰爭引發的通漲上升日益擔憂。

週二，30年期美國公債殖利率升至5.18%，創下2007年以來的最高水準。債券收益率與價格呈反向關係。

利率上升推高了政府、房主和企業的借貸成本，這可能成為特朗普政府面臨​​的關鍵壓力點，因為該政府仍在繼續推進其針對伊朗的行動，而伊朗的行動已推高了全球油價。

特朗普總統上一次面臨如此劇烈的國債市場動盪，是在去年4月他宣布將對幾乎所有美國貿易夥伴提高關稅之後。利率飆升被認為是特朗普後來放棄許多最嚴厲提案的主要原因。

這一次，全球投資者越來越擔心持續數月的中東衝突可能帶來的後果。儘管美國和伊朗之間達成了停火協議，但尋求持久和平協議的努力卻陷入了僵局。

週二，加拿大、德國、法國、西班牙、葡萄牙、荷蘭和瑞士的30年期公債殖利率均創下12個月新高。歐洲和亞洲其他地區的長期國債殖利率也升高。

在英國，政府公債市場的動盪更為極端。總理施紀賢面臨的領導危機，推動英國30年期公債殖利率升至1998年以來的最高水準。

日本30年期公債殖利率高達4.13%，創歷史新高，能源價格上漲令該國本已疲軟的經濟雪上加霜。

全球債券投資者關注的焦點是霍爾木茲海峽持續的封鎖。這條重要的航道在戰前曾輸送全球約五分之一的石油，主要運往亞洲和歐洲部分地區。

在美國，上周公佈的一系列通膨報告反映了油價上漲的影響，數據顯示消費者價格和生產者價格均以近幾年來最快的速度上漲。

另一個令美國國債市場承壓的因素是上週末特朗普與中國領導人習近平的峰會。投資人原本寄望於此次備受矚目的會晤能促使中國協助結束伊朗戰爭，但這項希望最終落空。

（待續）

在日益加劇的混亂之中，特朗普的10%全球新關稅生效

Recently NIKKEI Asia reported the following:

Trump's new 10% global tariff takes effect amid growing confusion

US president turns to 1974 law after Supreme Court strikes down 'reciprocal' tariffs

February 24, 2026 14:58 JST

WASHINGTON (Kyodo) -- U.S. President Donald Trump's new 10% global tariff took effect Tuesday, amid growing confusion at home and abroad about his approach to trade since the Supreme Court's invalidation of a central pillar of his economic agenda.

The new surcharge, which can run through July 24, replaced Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs targeting almost all U.S. trading partners, as well as fentanyl-related levies he applied to goods from China, Canada and Mexico, using a 1970s-era emergency law.

The replacement came after the highest court on Friday struck down those sweeping tariffs, a signature part of Trump's economic program and foreign policy during his second term.

Less than 24 hours after announcing the new, across-the-board tariff under a different legal framework, a furious Trump said Saturday that the rate would be raised to 15%, without specifying when, and hinted at unleashing other import taxes.

To implement the 10% tariff on imports from all countries, he relied on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows a president to impose duties of up to 15% to address "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficits.

The statute permits such measures to only last 150 days unless Congress approves an extension. No president had previously used the statue to impose tariffs.

According to Trump's proclamation on Friday, certain essential imports to the United States are exempted from the 10% tariff. These include critical minerals, aerospace products, beef, tomatoes and pharmaceuticals.

In addition, the temporary measure will not apply to imports already hit by the sector-specific tariffs Trump has levied on national security grounds since his return to office in January last year, such as automobiles and steel products.

The sectoral tariffs are authorized under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

But the 10% tariff will be added to the preexisting duties on other goods, meaning import costs for some companies could be higher than before the court's ruling.

The tariffs will be paid by importers in the United States, not exporters, and the increased costs are likely to be passed on to American consumers.

In the case of Japan's trade agreement with the United States, reached last summer, the Trump administration imposed a 15% country-specific tariff on goods from the Asian country.

Still, Japan was given "no-stacking" special treatment, under which imports from the country with preexisting tariffs of 15% or higher were not facing any additional levy, while duties on other items were at 15%.

On Monday, Trump warned U.S. trading partners not to take advantage of the Supreme Court's ruling, which said he overstepped his presidential powers last year when he invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the country-specific tariffs, without gaining congressional approval.

Trump wrote on social media that any country that seeks to "play games" with the decision will face a "much higher" tariff. He especially threatened countries with which the United States runs trade deficits and those that have already reached tariff deals.

Translation

在日益加劇的混亂之中，特朗普的10%全球新關稅生效

 最高法院駁回「對等」關稅後，美國總統轉向援引1974年法律

 華盛頓（共同社）- 美國總統特朗普的全球10%新關稅於週二生效。此前，最高法院駁回了他的經濟議程之中一核心支柱，導致國內外對其貿易政策的困惑日益加劇。

這項新的附加稅可持續至7月24日，它取代了特朗普針對幾乎所有美國貿易夥伴徵收的所謂「對等」關稅，以及援引1970年代的一項緊急法案，對來自中國、加拿大和墨西哥的商品徵收芬太尼的相關關稅。

此前，最高法院於週五推翻了特朗普第二任期內一系列全面關稅措施，這些關稅是其經濟計劃和外交政策的標誌性組成部分。

憤怒的特朗普在宣佈根據不同的法律框架全面對各國商品徵收新關稅不到24小時後，於週六表示，關稅稅率將提高至15%，但並未具體說明何時生效，並暗示將實施其他進口稅。

為了對所有國家的進口商品徵收10%的關稅，他引用了1974年《貿易法》第122條。該條款允許總統徵收最高15%的關稅，以應對「巨額且嚴重的」國際收支逆差。

該條款規定，除非國會批准延期，否則此類措施的有效期僅為150天。此前從未有總統援引該條款徵收關稅。

根據特朗普週五的公告，某些對美國至關重要的進口商品可免徵10%的關稅。這些商品包括關鍵礦產、航空航太產品、牛肉、番茄和藥品。

此外，這項臨時措施不適用於自特朗普去年1月重返總統職位以來，已因國家安全理由而徵收的特定產業關稅所影響的進口商品，例如汽車和鋼鐵產品。

這些行業關稅是根據1962年《貿易擴展法》第232條授權徵收的。

但新增的10%關稅將加在其他商品的現有關稅之上，這意味著一些公司的進口成本可能會高於法院裁決之前。

這些關稅將由美國進口商而非出口商支付，增加的成本很可能會轉嫁給美國消費者。

以去年夏天達成的美國與日本的貿易協定為例，特朗普政府對來自日本的商品徵收了15%的特定國家關稅。

儘管如此，日本仍享有「不疊加」的特殊待遇，即此前已對日本徵收15%或以上關稅的進口商品無需額外加徵關稅，而其他商品的關稅則為15%。

週一，特朗普警告美國貿易夥伴不要利用最高法院的裁決而去佔便宜。最高法院裁定，特朗普去年援引1977年《國際緊急經濟權力法》對特定國家徵收關稅，但因為此舉未獲得國會批准而超越了總統權力。

特朗普在社群媒體上發文稱，任何試圖利用這項裁決「玩弄政治遊戲」的國家都將面臨「更高」的關稅。他尤其威脅那些與美國有貿易逆差的國家，以及已經達成關稅協議的國家。

So, Donald Trump's new 10% global tariff is taking effect after the Supreme Court invalidates his previous economic agenda. The court rules that Trump has overstepped his presidential powers last year when he invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the country-specific tariffs without gaining congressional approval. To implement the 10% tariff on imports, he now relies on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows a president to impose duties of up to 15% to address "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficits. Apparently, Trump is furious about the court’s decision.

巴拿馬廢除香港公司的運河港口營運合約（1/2）

Recently Google News on-line picked up the following:

Panama voids Hong Kong-based firm's canal port contracts (1/2)

BBC - By Amy Walker and Suranjana Tewari, Asia business correspondents

31 Jan 2026

Panama's Supreme Court has annulled contracts allowing a Hong Kong-based company to operate container ports on the Panama Canal.

The ruling comes a year after US President Donald Trump claimed China was "operating the Panama Canal" - the main shipping link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans - in his inaugural speech.

CK Hutchison Holding, through its subsidiary the Panama Ports Company (PPC), has operated two of the five ports since the 1990s. It had previously agreed to sell them to a group led by a US investment firm under a wider deal.

The court found that laws allowing the firm to operate the ports were "unconstitutional", but PPC said the ruling "lacks legal basis".

Trump has made repeated claims that the Central American canal is under Chinese control.

During his address last January, he said: "China is operating the Panama Canal and we didn't give it to China. We gave it to Panama and we're taking it back."

The following month, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also demanded that Panama make "immediate changes" to what he called the "influence and control" of China over the canal.

Panama has previously rejected the US government's claims and President Jose Raul Mulino has said the canal "is and will remain" in his country's hands.

There is no public evidence to suggest China exercises control over the canal, though Chinese companies have a significant presence there.

CK Hutchison, founded by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, is not owned by the Chinese government.

But Beijing's tighter political control over Hong Kong in recent years has changed how the company is viewed internationally. Its global assets - which include ports and logistics hubs - are now often seen through the lens of wider concerns about China's influence.

Against a backdrop of rivalry between the US and China over global trade routes, as well as the Trump administration's focus on US dominance over the western hemisphere, the ruling on Thursday is likely to be seen as a victory for Washington.

Panama's Supreme Court said in a statement published on its website that, after "extensive deliberation", it had found that laws that underpin a concession contract between the state and PPC at the ports of Balbao and Cristóbal were unconstitutional.

(to be continued)

Translation

巴拿馬廢除香港公司的運河港口營運合約（1/2）

巴拿馬最高法院宣佈，廢除了允許一家總部位於香港的公司在巴拿馬運河上經營貨櫃港口的合約。

這項裁決是在美國總統特朗普 - 在他的就職演說中 - 聲稱中國「操控巴拿馬運河」一年後作出的 - 這運河連接大西洋和太平洋的主要航運通道。

長江和記實業有限公司(CK Hutchison Holding)透過其子公司巴拿馬港口公司（PPC）自1990年代以來一直經營五個港口中的兩個。此前，該公司已同意根據一項更廣泛的交易，將這兩個港口出售給一個由美國投資公司主導的財團。

法院裁定，允許巴拿馬港口公司運營這些港口的法律“違憲”，但該公司表示，裁決“缺乏法律依據”。

特朗普曾多次聲稱中美洲運河受中國控制。

他在去年一月的一次演講中表示：“中國正在運營巴拿馬運河，我們沒有把它交給中國。我們把它交給了巴拿馬，現在我們要收回它。”

在之後的一個月，美國國務卿盧比奧也要求巴拿馬  “立即改變” 他所謂的中國對運河的 “影響和控制”。

巴拿馬先前已駁斥了美國政府的說法，總統Jose Raul Mulino也表示，運河「現在和將來」都掌握在巴拿馬手中。

雖然中國企業在巴拿馬有引人注目的存在，但目前尚無公開證據顯示中國對運河行使控制權。

長江和記實業有限公司是由香港億萬富翁李嘉誠創立，並非中國政府所有。

但近年來北京對香港加強的政治管控改變了國際社會對該公司的看法。這有限公的全球資產 - 包括港口和物流樞紐 - 如今常常被置於對中國影響力日益增長的擔憂的背景下進行審視。

在美中兩國圍繞全球貿易路線競爭，以及特朗普政府著力維護美國在西半球主導地位的背景下，週四的裁決很可能被視為華盛頓的勝利。

巴拿馬最高法院在其網站上發表聲明稱，經過“廣泛審議”，法院認定，國家與 PPC 簽訂有關Balbao港和Cristóbal港的特許經營合約所依據的法律是違憲。

（待續）

世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球成長（2/2）

 Record Debt in the World’s Richest Nations Threatens Global Growth (2/2)

The cost of borrowing is already choking crucial public spending in many developing economies. Now it’s raising broader alarms.

By Patricia Cohen - Patricia Cohen, who has written frequently about debt across the world, is the global economics correspondent in London.

Jan. 27, 2026

Updated 9:34 a.m. ET

(continue)

Most countries have responded by significantly supporting Ukraine with billions of dollars and increasing military spending. Members of the North Atlantic alliance agreed to eventually devote 5 percent of their gross domestic product to defense. Japan is also substantially enlarging its military budget.

Tokyo’s debt is already staggering. It amounts to more than twice the country’s annual economic output.

The prospect of an even deeper hole grew last week when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suddenly called for a snap election. Both Ms. Takaichi’s Liberal Democrats and opposition parties are promising to increase spending and lower taxes.

Ms. Takaichi, for instance, has proposed suspending the consumption tax on food and nonalcoholic beverages, a move the Finance Ministry estimates would cost more than $30 billion annually.

For decades, Tokyo managed to fund its spending through rock-bottom interest rates that minimized borrowing costs. The Bank of Japan began to reverse its longstanding policy of ultralow interest rates in 2024.

It is moving slowly because of fears of financial instability, Mr. Rogoff of Harvard said. Japan has “stuffed debt into every orifice of the financial sector — pension funds, insurance companies, banks. And there are inflation pressures.”

The combination of low interest rates and elevated inflation particularly hurts working- and middle-income families, who see the value of their savings erode.

Ms. Takaichi’s announcement rattled investors. Bondholders quickly began selling and bond yields — interest that governments pay when they borrow money — jumped.

The uneasiness bled into other financial markets. Japanese investors are historically the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries. But higher returns from Japanese bonds could cause them to cut back on their purchase of American debt in order to take advantage of bigger yields at home.

Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to its highest level since August.

The turbulence set off alarms among some investors. Ken Griffin, chief executive of the hedge fund giant Citadel, characterized the sell-off as an “explicit warning” to other heavily indebted nations like the United States, noting that not even the world’s strongest and largest economy is immune to the risks.

Faith in U.S. creditworthiness briefly shuddered last April, when Mr. Trump’s blitz of tariff flip-flops caused Treasury yields to suddenly surge.

American bonds remain a safe haven in a risky world. Still, the president’s erratic economic policymaking and trade wars are one reason the current debt is unlike any other episode in American history, said William G. Gale, the author of “Fiscal Therapy: Curing America’s Debt Addiction and Investing in the Future.”

The U.S. national debt is now $38 trillion, roughly 125 percent the size of the American economy.

Mr. Trump has been acting like Max Bialystock in “The Producers,” promising payouts to farmers, taxpayers and bondholders with a limited pot of money. Analysts expect that the midterm elections will prompt the White House to spend even more freely in the coming year.

This month, Mr. Trump vowed to further increase military spending to $1.5 trillion dollars over the next fiscal year, which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculated would add $5.8 trillion to the national debt, including interest, over 10 years.

Net interest payments have tripled over the past five years, reaching roughly $1 trillion. They now eat up 15 percent of U.S. spending, the second biggest expense after Social Security.

Mr. Gale, who recently coauthored a study on the U.S. debt, warned that the continuing prospect of growing debt threatens the country’s role as an economic leader and undermines investor confidence in Treasury bonds and the dollar.

It also increases the burden on this generation’s children and grandchildren. As Mr. Gale explained, “the more you consume now, the less you can consume later.”

Translation

世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球成長（2/2）

借貸成本已經嚴重阻礙了許多發展中經濟體的關鍵公共支出。如今，這引發了更廣泛的警示。

（繼續）

大多數國家都做出了回應，向烏克蘭提供了數十億美元的援助，並增加了軍事開支。北大西洋公約組織成員國同意最終將國內生產毛額的5%用於國防。日本也大幅增加軍費預算。

東京的債務已經十分驚人，相當於全國年度經濟產出的兩倍多。

上週，高市早苗首相突然宣布提前舉行大選，這使得日本的債務問題雪上加霜。高市所在的自民黨和反對黨都承諾增加支出並降低稅收。

例如，高市提議暫停徵收食品和非酒精飲料的消費稅，根據財務省估計，此舉每年將耗資超過300億美元。

幾十年來，東京一直依靠極低的利率來維持支出，以最大限度地降低借貸成本。日本央行從2024年開始逐步扭轉其長期奉行的超低利率政策。

哈佛的Rogoff表示，由於擔心金融不穩定，日本央行的步伐較為緩慢。日本“將債務塞進了金融部門的每個角落 - 養老基金、保險公司、銀行。而且，通膨壓力仍然存在。”

低利率和高通膨的雙重打擊尤其損害了打工階層和中等收入家庭的利益，他們的儲蓄不斷縮減。

高市的聲明令投資者感到不安。債券持有人迅速開始拋售，債券殖利率（政府借款時支付的利息）飆升。

這種不安情緒蔓延至其他金融市場。日本投資者歷來是美國國債最大的外國持有者。但日本債券更高的收益可能促使他們減少購買美國國債，轉而投資殖利率更高的日本國內債券。

上週，10年期美國公債殖利率升至8月以來的最高水準。

這種動盪引發了一些投資者的警覺。對沖基金巨頭Citadel首席執行官肯Ken Griffin將此次拋售描述為對其他負債累累的國家（例如美國）的 “明確警告” ，並指出即使是世界上最強大、規模最大的經濟體也無法免受風險的影響。

去年4月，特朗普總統反覆無常的關稅政策導致美國公債殖利率突然飆升，也短暫動搖了人們對美國信用評級的信心。

美國債券在充滿風險的世界中仍然是避風港。然而，William G. Gale在其著作《財政療法：治愈美國的債務成癮並投資未來》（Fiscal Therapy: Curing America’s Debt Addiction and Investing in the Future）中指出，總統反覆無常的經濟政策和貿易戰是造成當前債務與美國歷史上任何其他事件都截然不同的原因之一。

美國國債目前高達38兆美元，約佔美國經濟規模的125%。

特朗普的行為就像電影《製片人》（The Producers）中的Max Bialystock一樣，承諾用有限的金錢向農民、納稅人和債券持有人支付開支。分析人士預計，中期選舉將促使白宮在未來一年更加肆意地支出。

本月，特朗普誓言在下一財年將軍費開支進一步增加到1.5兆美元。負責任聯邦預算委員會計算得出，這將使美國國債包括利息在未來10年內增加5.8兆美元。

過去五年，淨利息支出增加了兩倍，達到約1兆美元。如今，淨利息支出佔美國總支出的15%，位居第二，僅次於社會安全保障。

Gale近期與人合著了一份關於美國債務的研究報告。他警告說，債務持續增長的前景威脅著美國的經濟領導地位，並削弱了投資者對美國國債和美元的信心。

這也會加重這一代子孫的後代的負擔。正如Gale所解釋的， “現在消費越多，以後可以消費就越少。”

        So, last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to its highest level since August. The turbulence set off alarms among some investors and the sell-off is characterized as an “explicit warning” to other heavily indebted nations like the United States. Record or near-record debt in the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Japan has the potential to cause financial instability around the globe. The concern is that what happens if there’s a financial crisis, a pandemic or a war that requires spending a lot of money to deal with? 

世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球成長（1/2）

 Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Record Debt in the World’s Richest Nations Threatens Global Growth (1/2)

The cost of borrowing is already choking crucial public spending in many developing economies. Now it’s raising broader alarms.

By Patricia Cohen - Patricia Cohen, who has written frequently about debt across the world, is the global economics correspondent in London.

Jan. 27, 2026

Updated 9:34 a.m. ET

For decades crushing debt has spread misery in the world’s poor and lower-income nations. But the menace of unsupportable borrowing that now hangs over the global economy emanates from some of the richest countries.

Record or near-record debt in the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Japan threatens to hamstring growth and sow financial instability around the globe.

At home, it means countries must make interest payments with money that otherwise could have paid for health care, roads, public housing, technological advances or education.

The hunger for more and more loans has also pushed up borrowing costs, gobbling up a bigger share of taxpayer money. It can also push up rates on business, consumer and car loans, as well as mortgages and credit cards; and drive up inflation.

And perhaps most worrisome, overhanging debt — pumped up even when an economy is relatively sound and jobless rates are low, like the United States — gives governments less room to respond when things sour.

“You want to be able to spend big and spend fast when you need to,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard economics professor.

What happens if there’s a financial crisis, a pandemic or a war? What if there’s a sudden need for more social services spending and jobless relief because of changes caused by artificial intelligence or climate-related disasters?

Borrowing a lot of money quickly becomes more difficult — and expensive — when the national debt is already sky-high.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, President Trump commanded center stage, but on the sidelines, finance ministers fretted over their ability to fund a growing list of must-haves, from beefed-up militaries to upgraded electricity grids.

Government borrowing when an economy is strong, and when interest rates are low, can support growth, and in times of distress can help bolster spending. The cycle of supercharged borrowing began with the 2008 financial crisis and recession, when governments rushed to provide assistance to struggling households and tax revenues fell. Relief programs during the Covid-19 pandemic, as economies shut down and health care costs rocketed, kicked debt levels up another notch as interest rates were rising and outpacing growth.

But debt levels did not decline. And now, in six of the wealthy Group of 7 nations, the national debt equals or exceeds the country’s annual economic output, according to the International Monetary Fund.

More and more countries are being squeezed by demographics and slow growth. In Europe, Britain and Japan, aging populations have driven up the government’s health care and pension costs at the same time that the number of workers who provide the necessary tax revenue has shrunk.

The need to rebuild infrastructure and invest in advanced technology in many regions is also dire. A yearlong study requested by the European Union’s executive arm concluded that the 27-member bloc needed to spend an additional $900 billion on things like artificial intelligence, a shared energy grid, supercomputing and advanced worker training to effectively compete.

In Britain, it will cost at least 300 billion pounds ($410 billion) to upgrade infrastructure over the next decade, according to Future Governance Forum, a think tank in London. Billions more will be needed to revitalize its limping National Health Service.

Efforts to trim public spending in Italy, where debt equals 138 percent of gross domestic product, by cutting health care, education and public services, or in France by raising the retirement age, have set off vehement protests.

France, which has been politically deadlocked over the budget for months, saw its sovereign debt rating downgraded last fall, raising questions about the country’s financial stability.

Meanwhile, the world has turned more dangerous. Tensions between China and the United States have sharpened. Europe is threatened by an increasingly aggressive Russia and a belligerent American president.

(to be continued)

Translation

世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球經濟成長（1/2）

借貸成本已經嚴重阻礙了許多發展中經濟體的關鍵公共支出。如今，它引發了更廣泛的警示。

幾十年來，沉重的債務為世界上的貧困和低收入國家帶來了苦難。但如今籠罩全球經濟的難以承受的借貸威脅，卻來自一些最富裕的國家。

美國、英國、法國、義大利和日本的債務已達到或接近歷史最高水平，這有可能阻礙經濟成長，並在全球引發金融不穩定。

在這國內，這意味著各國必須以原本可用於醫療保健、道路、公共住宅、技術進步或教育的資金來支付利息。

對貸款需求的不斷增長也推高了借貸成本，吞噬了納稅人越來越多的資金。這也會導致商業貸款、消費貸款、汽車貸款、抵押貸款和信用卡利率上漲，並推高通貨膨脹。

或許最令人擔憂的是，即使在經濟相對穩健、失業率較低的情況下, 例如美國，頭頂的債務也不斷攀升，這使得政府在情況惡化時應對能力下降。

哈佛大學經濟學教授Kenneth Rogoff 說:「你要能夠在有需要時, 可以快速且大規模地用錢」。

如果發生金融危機、疫情或戰爭會怎樣？如果因為人工智能或氣候災害帶來的變化，突然需要增加社會服務支出和失業救濟金時又會怎麼樣？

當國家債務已經高得驚人時，借貸就會變得更加困難，成本也會更高。

上週在達沃斯舉行的世界經濟論壇上，特朗普總統佔據了舞台焦點，但在旁邊，各國財長卻為能否為日益增長的「必需品」清單提供資金而憂心忡忡，這些必需品包括加強軍備和升級電網。

在經濟強勁、利率較低時，政府借貸可以支持經濟成長；而在經濟困境時期，借貸則會刺激開支。這種過度借貸的周期始於2008年的金融危機和經濟衰退，當時各國政府爭相向陷入困境的家庭提供援助，導致稅收下降。新冠疫情期間，隨著經濟停擺和醫療成本飆升，救助計劃進一步推高了債務水平，因為利率上升的速度超過了經濟成長速度。

但債務水平並未下降。根據國際貨幣基金組織統計，如今，在富裕的七國集團（G7）中，有六個國家的國債等於或超過了該國的年度經濟產出。

越來越多的國家正受到人口結構變化和經濟成長放緩的雙重壓力。在歐洲、英國和日本，人口老化推高了政府的醫療保健和退休金支出，同時，貢獻必要稅收的勞工人數卻在減少。

許多地區重建基礎設施和投資先進技術的需求也十分迫切。歐盟執行機構委託進行的一項為期一年的研究得出結論：歐盟27個成員國需要額外投入9000億美元用於人工智能、共享能源網、超級計算和高級勞動力培訓等領域，才能有效參與競爭。

據倫敦智庫「未來治理論壇」稱，未來十年，英國至少需要3,000億英鎊（4,100億美元）用於基礎設施升級。此外，還需要數十億英鎊來振興其步履蹣跚的國民醫療服務體系（NHS）。

在義大利，債務相當於國內生產毛額的138%，政府試圖透過削減醫療保健、教育和公共服務來削減公共支出；在法國，政府則試圖提高退休年齡。這些舉措都引發了強烈的抗議。

法國因預算問題陷入數月政治僵局，其主權債務評級於去年秋季有所下調，引發了人們對該國金融穩定的擔憂。

同時，世界局勢變得更加危險。中美關係日益緊張。歐洲面對日益咄咄逼人的俄羅斯及好戰的美國總統的威脅。

（待續）

比特幣為何突然跌至特朗普勝選以來的最低水平

Recently Business Insider reported the following:

Why bitcoin suddenly slid to its lowest level since Trump's election win

Business Insider – Market - By William Edwards

Feb 2, 2026, 10:39 AM PT

- Bitcoin has dropped below where it was trading before the 2024 election, down almost 40% from its peak.

- Trump's crypto-friendly policies initially boosted bitcoin, but the top crypto has struggled.

- Gold and silver made headlines on Friday, but bitcoin has also been a loser from Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination.

Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since before the 2024 election.

The token is deep in a bear market, down as much as 37% from its October peak, briefly dropping below $75,000 on Monday before edging back up to around $78,500.

At the heart of the latest sell-off has been the big sentiment shift in speculative momentum trades, particularly gold and silver. The brutal sell-off that tanked metals prices spilled over into bitcoin, analysts say.

According to Coinglass, January 30 was the 10th largest liquidation event in bitcoin's history, with $2.5 billion in positions sold. October 10, 2025's liquidation — right at the start of the current bitcoin bear market — was the largest ever, at $19.1 billion.

Bitcoin tends to track other risk assets, and gold and silver have been behaving less like safe havens and more like momentum stocks in recent weeks.

The breakdown in their price on Friday was the latest factor to weigh on crypto, but disappointments had been mounting for bitcoin investors for months.

In 2024, Trump campaigned on making the US the "crypto capital of the world," promising crypto-friendly regulation and the creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve. But the enthusiasm has since waned and the regulatory bonanza seems to have been fully digested by markets while other more bearish factors have played into its price.

For one, speed bumps like trade wars, a sluggish labor market, and government shutdowns, investors have been wary of riskier assets.

The most recent development driving the risk-off sentiment is Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed. While Warsh has called for lower rates since Trump's election, he has historically favored a more hawkish policy.

Bitcoin and other risk assets like growth stocks tend to thrive in low-rate, easy-money environments.

Warsh's appointment probably bleeds into the second reason behind the decline: the sharp declines in the price of silver and gold. That's according to Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

"Given the build up of positioning and leverage involved, the sell-off is bleeding into other markets. Effectively, a deleveraging is happening, forcing traders to sell other assets to cover losses on their losing precious metals positions. That's contributing to the sell-off in stocks and probably contributed to Bitcoin's plunge over the weekend."

He added: "Every bubble needs a pin to pop it and the nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair was the prick this time."

Translation

比特幣為何突然跌至特朗普勝選以來的最低水平

 - 比特幣已跌至2024年大選前的水平以下，較峰值下跌近40%。

- 特朗普對加密貨幣的友好政策最初提振了比特幣，但這種頂級加密貨幣此後表現不佳。

- 黃金和白銀在周五成為新聞焦點，但比特幣也因Kevin Warsh獲得聯準會主席提名而遭受損失。

比特幣已跌至2024年大選前的最低水準。

該代幣正處於熊市深處，較10月份的峰值下跌了37%，週一曾一度跌破75,000美元，之後回升至78,500美元左右。

最新一輪拋售的核心在於推動投機性交易的情緒有重大轉向, 尤其是黃金和白銀市場方面。分析師表示，金屬價格暴跌的殘酷拋售波及到比特幣。

根據 Coinglass 數據顯示，1 月 30 日是比特幣史上第十大清算兑現事件，拋售額達 25 億美元。而 2025 年 10 月 10 日的清算 - 恰好發生在目前比特幣熊市之初 - 則是史上規模最大的一次，金額高達 191 億美元。

比特幣的走勢往往與其他風險資產類似，而近幾週來，黃金和白銀的表現越來越不像避險資產，反而更像是投機性的股票。

上週五黃金和白銀價格的暴跌是最新一個加密貨幣承壓的因素，但幾個月來，比特幣投資者的失望情緒一直在累積。

2024 年，特朗普競選時承諾將美國打造為 “世界加密貨幣之都” ，並承諾制定有利於加密貨幣的監管政策，以及建立戰略性比特幣儲備。但此後熱情有所減退，監管方面利好因素似乎已被市場完全消化，而其他一些較利淡因素對其價格造成了影響。

首先，貿易戰、勞動市場疲軟以及政府停擺等不利因素，使得投資人對風險較高的資產持謹慎態度。

最近加劇避險情緒的事件是特朗普任命Kevin Warsh擔任聯準會主席。雖然Warsh自特朗普當選以來一直呼籲降低利率，但他歷來傾向於更鷹派的政策。

比特幣和其他風險資產，例如成長型股票，往往在低利率、寬鬆的貨幣政策環境下表現良好。

Warsh的任命可能與價格下跌的第二個原因有關：白銀和黃金價格的暴跌。這是Capital.com高級金融市場分析師Kyle Rodda的觀點。

"鑑於貴金屬倉位和槓桿的積累，拋售潮正在蔓延至其他市場。實際上，市場正在經歷去槓桿化，迫使交易員拋售其他資產以彌補貴金屬頭寸的損失。這加劇了股市的拋售，也可能是導致比特幣週末暴跌的原因之一。”

他補充說：“任何泡沫都需要一根針來刺破，而這次提名Kevin Warsh接替鮑威爾擔任美聯儲主局席就是那根針。”

              So, Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since before the 2024 election. Every bubble needs a pin to pop it and probably, the nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair is the prick this time.

美國貿易逆差降至2009年以來最低水平，關稅重塑貿易格局

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

U.S. Trade Deficit Fell to Lowest Level Since 2009 as Tariffs Reshape Trade

The monthly trade deficit continued to shrink in October after President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports, the latest data showed.

By Ana Swanson - Ana Swanson covers international trade and reported from Washington

Jan. 8, 2026

Updated 11:08 a.m. ET

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services shrank to $29.4 billion in October, down from $48.1 billion the prior month as the Trump administration’s tariffs reshaped global trade, data from the Commerce Department showed on Thursday.

The figure was the lowest monthly trade deficit recorded since June 2009. U.S. imports have fallen while exports have remained strong, decreasing the trade deficit and seemingly accomplishing a major goal for President Trump.

But economists cautioned that some of the trend resulted from temporary fluctuations in trade in certain products, like gold and pharmaceuticals. Because of a surge in imports earlier this year, the overall trade deficit from January to October was still up 7.7 percent from the previous year.

Imports in October fell 3.2 percent to $331.4 billion from the previous month, while exports rose 2.6 percent to $302 billion. Because exports grew more than imports, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said that there was a lot of noise in the data for the month, and that gold and silver markets in particular had been “bonkers.”

Another force narrowing the trade deficit in the month was a collapse in pharmaceutical imports, he said. Drug companies stockpiled pharmaceuticals ahead of tariffs going into effect on the sector on Oct. 1, though many firms were ultimately spared from tariffs.

“Cutting through the noise and getting to the underlying signal in the data, it suggests to me that the deficit is as large as its ever been,” Mr. Zandi said.

Trade flows have fluctuated wildly this year because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. The president announced sweeping global tariffs in April, before pausing them for several months to carry out trade negotiations. Those tariffs went back into effect on Aug. 7.

On Aug. 29, the Trump administration also ended the “de minimis” exemption, which allowed foreign shipments valued at less than $800 to come into the United States tariff-free.

The administration has also imposed a variety of tariffs on products and sectors it deemed important to national security, including steel, copper and upholstered furniture. As of November, the U.S. effective tariff rate had climbed to more than 16 percent, the highest level since 1935, according to the Budget Lab at Yale, making it significantly more expensive for importers to bring goods into the country.

The Trump administration has pointed to the lower monthly trade deficits in recent months as evidence that its trade policies were working. Mr. Trump has long seen the trade deficit as a sign of an ailing American economy. He and his supporters argue that tariffs will narrow it, by boosting U.S. factory production and reducing imports.

But economists argue that bigger economic forces typically determine the size of the trade deficit, like savings rates and government spending. They have also cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from a few months of data in a particularly volatile year.

Companies imported large amounts of inventory earlier this year before tariffs went into effect, then subsequently reduced their purchases. The question for economists now is whether trade will return to more normal levels as company stockpiles go down, or if tariffs will continue to depress imports and decrease the trade deficit.

For the year through October, exports are up 6.3 percent annually, while imports have risen 6.6 percent, according to the data, which is compiled by the Census Bureau.

Tariffs could undergo more changes in the weeks to come. The Supreme Court is set to rule soon on the legality of many of the tariffs that Mr. Trump issued using a 1970s emergency law. But Trump officials have said that if those tariffs were struck down, they would use other authorities to impose new duties.

Diane Swonk, an economist at KPMG, described the monthly drop in the trade deficit as “stunning,” but said that it was largely driven by trade in gold. Investors have been buying and selling gold in part to offset uncertainty related to the tariffs this year. Gold made up nearly 90 percent of the rise in exports in October and about 13 percent of the decline in imports, she said.

Americans imported slightly more passenger cars, cellphones, toys and appliances in the month. And imports of high-tech goods remained strong because of tariff waivers for the electronics sector and the building of American data centers to feed A.I. demand, Ms. Swonk said.

The U.S. trade deficit with China continued to shrink in October, while trade deficits with Mexico, Thailand and Taiwan all hit record highs, in part reflecting A.I.-related imports.

Beyond gold and precious metals, exports of other products looked relatively weak. Shipments abroad of American aircraft, computers, soybeans and pharmaceutical goods all fell on a monthly basis in October. Soybean exports were down $3.3 billion in the year through October, as China curtailed its purchases of U.S. beans and bought from South America instead.

Translation

美國貿易逆差降至2009年以來最低水平，關稅重塑貿易格局

最新數據顯示，在特朗普總統對進口商品加徵全面關稅後，10月美國貿易逆差持續收窄。

美國商務部週四公佈的數據顯示，特朗普政府關稅政策重塑全球貿易格局的影響，10月份美國商品和服務貿易逆差收窄至294億美元，低於上月的481億美元。

這是自2009年6月以來的最低月貿易逆差。美國進口下降，而出口維持強勁，貿易逆差因此減少，似乎實現了特朗普總統的重要目標。

但經濟學家警告稱，部分趨勢是由於某些產品（如黃金和藥品）貿易的暫時性波動造成的。由於今年稍早進口激增，1月至10月的整體貿易逆差仍比去年同期上升7.7%。

10月份進口額較上季下降3.2%至3,314億美元，而出口額較上季增加2.6%至3,020億美元。由於出口上升超過進口，美國貿易逆差有所縮小。

穆迪分析公司首席經濟學家Mark Zandi表示，當月的數據有許多幹擾因素，尤其是黃金和白銀市場「異常瘋狂」。

他指出，當月貿易逆差收窄的另一個原因是藥品進口量大幅下降。製藥公司在10月1日該行業關稅生效前囤積了大量藥品，許多公司最終免於關稅。

Zandi表示： “如果能夠撥開迷霧，從數據中得出根本信號，我認為目前的貿易逆差規模與歷史最高水平相約。”

由於特朗普總統的關稅政策，今年的貿易流量波動劇烈。總統在4月宣布了一系列全球關稅措施，隨後暫停數月以進行貿易談判。這些關稅於8月7日重新生效。

8月29日，特朗普政府還取消了「最低限度」豁免，該豁免允許價值低於800美元的外國貨物免稅進入美國。

此外，特朗普政府也對一些其認為對國家安全至關重要的產品和產業徵收了多種關稅，包括鋼鐵、銅和有軟墊的家具。根據耶魯大學預算實驗室的數據，截至11月，美國的實際關稅稅率已攀升至16%以上，為1935年以來的最高水平，這使得進口商將商品進口到美國的成本顯著增加。

特朗普政府指出，近幾個月來每月貿易逆差的下降表明其貿易政策正在發揮作用。特朗普長期以來一直將貿易逆差視為美國經濟疲軟的象徵。他和他的支持者認為，關稅將透過促進美國工廠生產和減少進口來縮小貿易逆差。

但經濟學家指出，通常是有更大的經濟因素決定出貿易逆差的規模，例如儲蓄率和政府支出。他們還警告說，在今年這個經濟波動尤為劇烈的年份，僅憑幾個月的數據就得出過多結論是不妥的。

今年早些時候，在關稅生效之前，企業大量進口了庫存，隨後又減少了採購。經濟學家現在面臨的問題是，隨著企業庫存的減少，貿易是否會恢復到更正常的水平，還是關稅將繼續抑制進口並縮小貿易逆差。

根據人口普查局彙編的數據，截至10月的一年中，出口年增6.3%，進口年增6.6%。

未來幾週，關稅政策可能會有更多變化。最高法院即將就特朗普總統依據20世紀70年代的緊急法案頒布的許多關稅的合法性做出裁決。但特朗普政府官員表示，如果這些關稅被推翻，他們將動用其他權力徵收新的關稅。

KPMG會計師事務所經濟學家Diane Swonk形容10月份貿易逆差的下降“令人震驚”，但她指出，這主要是由黃金貿易推動的。投資者一直在買賣黃金，部分原因是抵消今年關稅帶來的不確定性。她說，10月份黃金出口增長佔出口成長的近90%，佔進口下降約13%。

當月，美國進口的汽車、手機、玩具和家用電器略有增加。Swonk表示，由於電子產品產業的關稅豁免以及美國為滿足人工智能需求而建造的數據中心，便高科技產品的進口依然強勁。

10月份，美國對華貿易逆差持續縮小，而對墨西哥、泰國和台灣的貿易逆差均創歷史新高，部分原因是與人工智能有關的進口。

除黃金和貴金屬外，其他產品的出口表現相對疲軟。 10月份，美國飛機、電腦、大豆和藥品的出口額均較上月下降。截至10月的一年中，大豆出口額下降了33億美元，因為中國減少了對美國大豆的採購，轉而從南美洲進口。

              So, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services shrank in October. The figure was the lowest monthly trade deficit recorded since June 2009. Such a decrease in the trade deficit seems to have accomplished a major goal for Trump. But economists point out that typically bigger economic forces determine the size of the trade deficit. They have also cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from a few months of data, especially in a volatile year.