Recently The New York Times reported the following:
Bond Yields Hit Highest Level Since 2007 as Inflation Fears Set In (2/2)
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hasn’t been this high
since the lead-up to the global financial crisis. Across Europe and Asia,
yields are also elevated.
The NYT - By Joe Rennison - Emmett Lindner contributed
reporting. Joe Rennison writes about financial markets, a beat that ranges from
chronicling the vagaries of the stock market to explaining the
often-inscrutable trading decisions of Wall Street insiders.
May 19, 2026
(continue)
In Europe, world leaders met on Tuesday to discuss ways to
temper inflation, though many in the group were upset about a U.S. decision
this week to further ease sanctions on Russian seaborne oil in an attempt to
bring down global fuel costs. Some European officials said the move rewarded
Russia while its aggression in Ukraine continued.
“I think there is just a lot of fear out there right now and a collective hesitancy to step in front of the sell-off,” said Vail Hartman, a U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets, noting concerns that yields could continue to move higher.
Unlike during last year’s tariff turmoil, Mr. Trump appears less willing to back down over Iran, analysts say. The economy is otherwise in good shape, underpinned by the growth of artificial intelligence and blockbuster corporate profits. The stock market has risen for seven consecutive weeks, hitting record highs along the way.
But the rising rates are also starting to add pressure on stocks. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell about 0.7 percent, its third consecutive daily drop, as investors awaited developments in the tenuous cease-fire in the Iran war. When asked on Tuesday how long Iran had to return to the negotiating table, Mr. Trump said: “Two or three days. Maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Maybe early next week. A limited period of time.”
The climbing Treasury yields could complicate Mr. Trump’s other economic priorities, like jump-starting the stalled housing market.
The 10-year Treasury yield, which underpins borrowing costs for mortgages, has also surged higher since the start of the war with Iran.
That yield has risen roughly three-quarters of a percentage point since the war began, to 4.67 percent, its highest level since the start of 2025. The average 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 6.36 percent from below 6 percent before the war, according to data from the housing agency Freddie Mac.
Some of the increasing Treasury yields are driven by anticipation that the Fed will potentially need to raise the short-dated interest rates it controls to try to slow inflation. These expectation are increasing even with the appointment of the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, whom Mr. Trump picked with hopes of lowering rates.
Before the war began, investors had expected the Fed to cut rates at least half a percentage point by January. Now, they have lowered those expectations to a quarter-point rise, based on prices in interest rate futures markets.
“There is a feeling that this is going to get worse before it gets better,” said Joseph Purtell, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, adding that the market is “pricing in some kind of premium for that uncertainty.”
Translation
債券殖利率創2007年以來新高，通漲擔憂加劇（2/2）
（繼續）
世界各國領導人週二在歐洲舉行會議，討論如何抑制通漲。然而，與會的許多人對美國本週決定進一步放寬對俄羅斯海運石油的制裁感到不滿，此舉旨在降低全球燃料價格。一些歐洲官員表示，此舉實際上是在獎勵俄羅斯，而俄羅斯在烏克蘭的侵略行為仍在繼續。
BMO資本市場美國利率策略師Vail Hartman指出人們擔心收益率可能會繼續攀升，並說: 「我認為目前市場瀰漫著恐慌情緒，對於介入集體拋售在猶疑中」。
分析人士稱，與去年的關稅風波不同，特朗普先生似乎不太願意在伊朗問題上做出讓步。除此之外，美國經濟狀況良好，這得益於人工智能的蓬勃發展和企業利潤的飆升。股市已連續七週上漲，並屢創新高。
但利率上升也開始給股市帶來壓力。週二，標普500指數下跌約0.7%，連續第三個交易日下跌，投資人正密切關注伊朗戰爭脆弱的停火協議的進展。週二，當被問及伊朗還有多少時間重返談判桌時，特朗普先生表示：“兩三天。也許是周五、週六、週日。也許是下週初。時間有限。”
不斷攀升的美國公債殖利率可能會使特朗普先生的其他經濟優先事項變得更加複雜，例如重啟停滯不前的房地產市場。
作為抵押貸款成本基準的10年期美國公債殖利率自伊朗戰爭爆發以來也大幅上升。
自戰爭開始以來，該殖利率已上漲約0.75個百分點，達到4.67%，為2025年以來的最高水平。根據住房中介Freddie Mac的數據，30年期抵押貸款的平均利率已從戰前的不到6%升至6.36%。
美國公債殖利率上漲的部分原因是市場預期聯儲局可能需要提高其控制的短期利率以抑制通漲。這些預期仍在上升，即使特朗普任命了新的聯儲局主席凱文沃什（Kevin Warsh）並希望他能降低利率。
在伊朗戰爭爆發前，投資人曾預期聯儲局將在1月至少降息0.5個百分點。如今，根據利率期貨市場的價格，他們已將這項預期下調至升息0.25個百分點。
Neuberger Berman的投資組合經理Joseph Purtell表示：「人們感覺情況會先惡化後好轉」。他還補充說，市場「已經為這種不確定性計入了一定的溢價」。
So, bond markets are pushing the rates
on U.S. Treasuries to levels not seen since the global financial crisis nearly
20 years ago. The rising rates, which are pushing up borrowing costs for
governments, homeowners and businesses, could be a critical pressure point for
the Trump administration as it continues to pursue its campaign against Iran. I
am interested in knowing how and when Trump will end this conflict.
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