UAE to Withdraw from OPEC, State News Reports; A blow to the cooperative system?

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

UAEがOPECから脱退へ 国営通信報じる 協調体制に打撃か

2026年4月28日21:42

(2026年4月29日5:10更新)

UAE＝アラブ首長国連邦

UAE＝アラブ首長国連邦が、主要な産油国で作るOPEC＝石油輸出国機構から脱退すると、UAEの国営通信が報じました。欧米のメディアは原油の生産方針などでほかの加盟国との対立が生じ、脱退につながったという見方を伝えています。

UAEの国営通信は28日、UAEが来月5月1日から、主要な産油国で作るOPECと、非加盟の産油国も加わったOPECプラスから脱退すると報じました。

イラン情勢を受けてホルムズ海峡からの原油の輸送が滞っていますが、国営通信によりますと、UAEは今後、生産量を段階的に増やすとしていて、脱退の決定は市場の需要に対応する能力を高めることにつながるなどと説明しています。

欧米のメディアは、サウジアラビアが主導するOPECの原油の生産方針や湾岸諸国のイラン情勢への対応をめぐり、UAEとほかの加盟国との対立が生じ、脱退につながったという見方を伝えています。

OPECは、原油相場を支えるため、生産方針などで足並みをそろえてきましたが、有数の産油国のひとつであるUAEの脱退で、協調体制が打撃を受ける可能性も指摘されています。

UAEエネルギー相 “安定した世界市場を支える”

UAE＝アラブ首長国連邦が主要な産油国で作るOPEC＝石油輸出国機構から脱退することをめぐり、UAEのマズルーイ エネルギー相は28日、「今後もエネルギーの安全保障に力を尽くし、安定した世界市場を支えていく」などとSNSに投稿しました。

決定について、マズルーイ エネルギー相は政策に基づくもので、長期的な市場の動向を踏まえているとしています。

OPECとOPECプラスとは

OPECは、メジャーと呼ばれる欧米の大手石油会社に対抗し、産油国側の利益を守ることなどを目的に1960年に設立されました。

当初の加盟国はイランやイラク、サウジアラビアなどの5か国で、現在はUAEを含めて12か国が加盟しています。

また、産油国の石油価格に対する影響力の維持を目指して、OPECの加盟国に加えて非加盟のロシアやメキシコなどがOPECプラスという枠組みで生産調整などを行っています。

アメリカとイスラエルによるイランへの軍事作戦が始まった後もOPECプラスの産油国は会合を開いています。

このうち4月5日にはサウジアラビアやロシア、それにUAEなど主な産油国8か国がオンラインで会合を開き、来月5月の原油の生産量を1日あたり20万6000バレル増やすと明らかにしました。

事実上の封鎖が続くホルムズ海峡が開放され、原油の輸送が本格的に再開した場合に備えた決定とみられます。

Translation

UAE to Withdraw from OPEC, State News Reports; A blow to the cooperative system?

April 28, 2026, 21:42

(Updated April 29, 2026, 5:10)

UAE = United Arab Emirates

The UAE (United Arab Emirates) would withdraw from OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), a group comprised of major oil-producing countries, according to the UAE's state news agency. Western media outlets were reporting that the withdrawal was due to conflicts with other member countries over crude oil production policies.

The UAE's state news agency reported on the 28th that the UAE would withdraw from OPEC, comprised of major oil-producing countries, and OPEC+, which included non-member oil-producing countries, effective from May 1st.

While crude oil transport from the Strait of Hormuz had been disrupted due to the situation in Iran, the state news agency said that the UAE planned to gradually increase production, explaining that the decision to withdraw could enhance its ability to meet market demand.

Western media outlets were reporting that the UAE's withdrawal stemmed from conflicts between the UAE and other member states over Saudi Arabia's leadership in OPEC's crude oil production policies and the Gulf states' responses to the situation in Iran.

OPEC had been working together on production policies and other matters to support crude oil prices, but the withdrawal of the UAE, one of the leading oil-producing countries, could potentially damage this cooperative system.

UAE Energy Minister: “Supporting a Stable Global Market”

Regarding the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, UAE Energy Minister Mazroui posted on social media on the 28th, stating that the country “will continue to dedicate itself to energy security and support a stable global market.”

Regarding the decision, Energy Minister Mazroui stated that it was based on policy and took into account long-term market trends.

About OPEC and OPEC+

OPEC was established in 1960 with the aim of protecting the interests of oil-producing countries and countering the major Western oil companies.

The initial member states were five countries, including Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Currently, 12 countries, including the UAE, were members.

Furthermore, in order to maintain the influence of oil-producing countries on oil prices, in addition to OPEC members, non-member countries such as Russia and Mexico operated under the framework of OPEC+, implementing production adjustments and other measures.

Even after the start of military operations against Iran by the United States and Israel, OPEC+ oil-producing countries had continued to hold meetings.

Among them, on April 5th, eight major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE, held an online meeting and announced that they would increase crude oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in May.

This decision was seen as preparation for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which remained effectively blocked, and the resumption of crude oil transport in full force.

So, the UAE will withdraw from OPEC. UAE's withdrawal is probably stemmed from conflicts between the UAE and other member states over Saudi Arabia's leadership in OPEC's crude oil production policies and the Gulf states' responses to the situation in Iran. Apparently, the current US-Iran conflict will cause changes to the political equilibrium in the region.

美國制裁中國「茶壺」煉油廠，原因是它購買伊朗石油

Recently Aljazeera.com reported the following:

US sanctions China’s ‘teapot’ refinery for buying Iranian oil

The Hengli refinery, China’s second-largest, has generated hundreds of millions of dollars for Iran’s military, the US Treasury says.

By Al Jazeera Staff and Reuters

Published On 25 Apr 2026

25 Apr 2026

The United States has sanctioned a Chinese oil refinery for buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Iranian oil.

Ahead of potential new talks on ending the US-Israeli war on Iran, the US Treasury Department on Friday said that it was targeting Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, China’s second-largest “teapot” or independent refinery.

Hengli is “one of Tehran’s most valued customers” and has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for the Iranian military through crude oil purchases, the Treasury added.

It also imposed new sanctions on about 40 shipping firms and vessels alleged to be operating as part of Iran’s shadow fleet.

The Chinese embassy in Washington, DC pushed back against the move.

“We call ‌on the US to stop politicising trade and sci-tech issues and using them as a weapon and a tool and stop abusing various kinds of sanction to hit Chinese companies,” a spokesperson said.

China gets more than half of its oil from the Middle East, and last year purchased more than 80 percent of Iran’s shipped oil, according to analytics firm Kpler.

The US Navy has blockaded Iranian ports since April 13, in what President Donald Trump claims is a bid to further choke Iran’s proceeds from oil and gas exports.

Teapots under pressure

China’s “teapot” refineries are small, privately owned refineries, mostly based in Shandong province and nicknamed for their teapot-like shape.

They play a key role in beefing up China’s oil supplies by importing and stockpiling discounted Iranian and Russian oil – while allowing state-owned enterprises to remain more insulated from politically risky oil trading.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pledged Friday to continue targeting the “network of vessels, intermediaries, and buyers Iran relies on to move its oil to global markets”.

“Any person or vessel facilitating these flows – through covert trade and finance – risks exposure to US sanctions,” he said.

Aside from the prospect of sanctions, the US-Israel war on Iran has increased financial pressures for teapot refineries, which are facing “high replacement prices in a market already strained by global tensions”, Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel reported last month.

Even before the war began, the Trump administration was targeting China’s independent refineries.

Last year, the Treasury sanctioned Hebei Xinhai Chemical Group, Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing Chemical.

Translation

美國制裁中國「茶壺」煉油廠，原因是它購買伊朗石油

美國財政部稱，中國第二大煉油廠恆力煉油廠已為伊朗軍方創造了數億美元的收入

美國已對一家中國煉油廠實施制裁，因為其購買了價值數億美元的伊朗石油。

在美國-以色列以可能就結束對伊朗的戰爭舉行新一輪談判之前，美國財政部週五表示，將制裁目標鎖定在中國第二大「茶壺」或獨立煉油廠 - 恆力石化（大連）煉油廠。

財政部補充說，恆力是“德黑蘭最重要的客戶之一”，並透過購買原油為伊朗軍方創造了數億美元的收入。

美國也對約40家航運公司和船隻實施了新的製裁，這些公司和船隻被指控隸屬於伊朗的「影子艦隊」。

中國駐華盛頓大使館反對這項舉措。

中國一位發言人表示：“我們呼籲美國停止將貿易和科技問題政治化，停止將其作為武器和工具，停止濫用各種制裁手段打擊中國企業。”

根據分析公司Kpler的數據顯示，中國超過一半的石油來自中東，去年購買了伊朗石油出口量的80%以上。

自4月13日起，美國海軍封鎖了伊朗港口。美國總統特朗普聲稱，此舉旨在進一步切斷伊朗的石油和天然氣出口收入。

「茶壺煉油廠」面臨壓力

中國的「茶壺煉油廠」是指規模較小、私營的煉油廠，大多位於山東省，因其外形酷似茶壺而得名。

它們在增強中國石油供應方面發揮關鍵作用，透過進口和囤積價格低廉的伊朗和俄羅斯石油，使國有企業能夠更好地免受到有政治風險的石油交易的影響。

美國財政部長貝森特週五承諾，將繼續打擊「伊朗賴以將其石油運往全球市場的船隻、中間商人和買家的網絡」。

他表示：“任何透過秘密貿易和融資促成這些石油流動的人或船隻，都將面臨美國制裁的風險。”

除了制裁的可能性之外，美以對伊朗的戰爭也加劇了小型煉油廠的財務壓力。總部位於布魯塞爾的經濟智庫Bruegel研究所上個月報告稱，這些煉油廠正面對「高昂的替代價格，而全球局勢已經令市場緊繃」。

甚至在戰爭爆發之前，特朗普政府就已經開始將目標對準中國的獨立煉油廠。

去年，財政部對河北新海化工集團、山東壽光魯清石化和山東盛興化工進行了制裁。

              So, ahead of potential new talks in ending the US-Israeli war on Iran, the US says that it is targeting Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, China’s second-largest “teapot” refinery, accusing that it generates hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue for the Iranian military through crude oil purchases. Apparently, this may be one of the topics of discussion when President Trump visits China this month.

US Navy Loses Rare and Expensive Drone Over the Persian Gulf

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

(The MQ4C Triton drone. Source: CNN )

米海軍、希少で高価なドローン失う　ペルシャ湾上空

2026.04.16 Thu posted at 17:27 JST

（CNN） 米海軍は先週、所有する中で最も高価な部類の航空機をペルシャ湾上空で失った模様だ。

14日に発表された海軍安全司令部の報告書によると、「MQ4Cトライトン」ドローン（無人機）が9日に墜落した。作戦の安全保障上の理由から、墜落地点は非公開とされている。

CNNが航空機追跡サイトの「フライトレーダー24」のデータを検索したところ、MQ4Cは9日にイタリアのシゴネラ海軍航空基地を離陸し、ペルシャ湾上空で消息を絶ったことが分かった。

同機はホルムズ海峡上空を飛行していたが、海峡上空を離れた後、高度約1万5000メートルから約2700メートルまで降下し、レーダーから消失した。

飛行データによるとトライトンは飛行中、地上のパイロットとの通信が途絶えたことを示すスコーク信号を発信した。その約70分後、高度約1万3400メートルまで降下した際に、緊急事態を示すスコーク信号を発信。その後も同じスコーク信号を発信し続け、協定世界時（UTC）午前10時12分に高度約2800メートルでレーダーから消えた。

飛行追跡データからは喪失の原因を特定できず、海軍はMQ4Cが墜落したという情報のみを公表している。

製造元のノースロップ・グラマン社はトライトンを「世界最高峰の無人海上情報収集・監視・偵察・標的設定機」と形容している。

ジェットエンジンを搭載し、航続距離約1万3700キロを誇るMQ4Cは、24時間以上の飛行が可能だ。

このドローンは海軍艦隊の中でも最も希少な機体の一つであり、ノースロップ・グラマン社によるとわずか20機しか製造されていない。また、1機あたり約2億4000万ドル（約380億円）という極めて高価な機体でもある。これはF35Cステルス戦闘機の2倍以上の価格に相当する。

Translation

US Navy Loses Rare and Expensive Drone Over the Persian Gulf

(CNN) The US Navy appeared to have lost one of its most expensive aircraft last week over the Persian Gulf.

According to a report from the Naval Security Command released on the 14th, an MQ4C Triton drone crashed on the 9th. The crash site was being kept secret for operational security reasons.

CNN searched the aircraft tracking site called “Flightradar24 data”, it revealed that the MQ4C took off from Sigonella Naval Air Station in Italy on the 9th and disappeared over the Persian Gulf.

The aircraft was flying over the Strait of Hormuz, and after leaving the airspace above the strait, it descended from an altitude of approximately 15,000 meters to approximately 2,700 meters and disappeared from radar.

Flight data indicated that during flight, the Triton transmitted a squawk signal indicating a loss of communication with the pilot on the ground. Approximately 70 minutes later, while descending to an altitude of approximately 13,400 meters, it transmitted an emergency squawk signal. It continued to transmit the same squawk signal until it disappeared from radar at an altitude of approximately 2,800 meters at 10:12 AM UTC.

The cause of the loss could not be determined from the flight tracking data, and the Navy had only released information that the MQ4C crashed.

Northrop Grumman, the manufacturer, described the Triton as "the world's top unmanned maritime intelligence gathering, surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting aircraft."

Equipped with a jet engine and boasting a range of approximately 13,700 kilometers, the MQ4C could fly for more than 24 hours.

This drone was one of the rarest aircraft in the Navy fleet, with only 20 ever manufactured, according to Northrop Grumman. It was also extremely expensive, costing approximately $240 million (about 38 billion yen) per unit. This would be more than twice the price of an F-35C stealth fighter jet.

              So, the US Navy appears to have lost one of its most expensive aircraft last week over the Persian Gulf. This drone is one of the rarest aircraft in the Navy fleet, with only 20 ever manufactured and is also extremely expensive. I am interested in knowing why it crashed.

Iran Fired Ballistic Missiles at Joint US-UK Base in Indian Ocean, a US Bomber Launch Base: Target Missed

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

イラン、インド洋の米英共同基地へ弾道ミサイル発射も命中せず　米爆撃機の出撃拠点

2026.03.21 Sat posted at 16:40 JST

  （CNN） イランが20日午前、インド洋のディエゴガルシア島にある米英の共同軍事基地に向けて中距離弾道ミサイルを発射したことが分かった。米当局者が明らかにした。

当局者によると、イラン沿岸から約3810キロ離れた基地に向けてミサイル2発が発射されたが、いずれも命中しなかったという。

ディエゴガルシア島は米国の重爆撃機にとって重要な航空拠点で、長年にわたり、米本土から遠く離れた地域への作戦に不可欠な米軍の海外出撃拠点の役割を果たしてきた。

CNNはホワイトハウスや米国防総省、英国防省、ディエゴガルシアの基地を管轄地域に収める米インド太平洋軍にコメントを求めている。

ディエゴガルシア島はモーリシャスから北東1609キロあまりに位置する群島、チャゴス諸島の一部。英国は1814年、フランスの皇帝ナポレオンを撃退後、モーリシャスと合わせてチャゴス諸島を取得した。

モーリシャスは1968年に独立したが、チャゴス諸島は今も英国の支配下にある。

米国と英国は71年、この地域におけるソ連の軍事的影響力を抑える目的で、ディエゴガルシア島に大規模な基地を建設した。

ディエゴガルシア島はイラク侵攻に寄与したほか、アジア各地への任務に飛ぶ爆撃機の重要な着陸拠点として機能してきた。米国による身柄引き渡しとの関連も指摘される。

トランプ米大統領は今年、チャゴス諸島の主権をモーリシャスに引き渡す計画を巡り、英国を「愚かだ」と批判した。

英国は条約の条件に基づき、チャゴス諸島の主権をモーリシャスに移譲する方針。ディエゴガルシアにある基地については、英国が毎年1億3600万ドル（約216億円）をモーリシャスに支払って99年間租借する予定で、米英は引き続き施設を使用できる。

Translation

Iran Fired Ballistic Missiles at Joint US-UK Base in Indian Ocean, a US Bomber Launch Base: Target Missed

March 21, 2026 (Sat) Posted at 4:40 PM JST

(CNN) A US official confirmed that Iran had fired medium-range ballistic missiles at a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean on the morning of March 20.

According to the official, two missiles were fired at the base, located approximately 3,810 kilometers off the Iranian coast, but neither hit its target.

Diego Garcia Island is a crucial air base for US heavy bombers and has long served as an essential overseas launch base for US military operations far from the US mainland.

CNN had reached out for comment to the White House, the US Department of Defense, the UK Ministry of Defense, and also the US Indo-Pacific Command which oversaw the Diego Garcia base.

Diego Garcia was part of the Chagos Islands, an archipelago located approximately 1,609 kilometers northeast of Mauritius. Britain acquired the Chagos Islands, along with Mauritius, in 1814 after repelling Napoleon the French emperor.

Mauritius gained independence in 1968, but the Chagos Islands remained under British control.

In 1971, the United States and Britain constructed a large base on Diego Garcia with the aim of countering Soviet military influence in the region.

Diego Garcia played a role in the invasion of Iraq and had served as an important landing base for bombers flying to various parts of Asia. Its connection to the US extradition had also been suggested.

This year, US President Trump criticized Britain as "stupid" over its plan to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

Britain intended to transfer sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius based on the terms of the treaty. The base in Diego Garcia was to be leased by the UK for 99 years, with the UK paying Mauritius $136 million (approximately 21.6 billion yen) annually, allowing the US and UK to continue using the facilities.

So, Iran has fired two medium-range ballistic missiles at a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean located approximately 3,810 kilometers from the Iranian coast, but neither hit its target. Apparently, up to this moment, Iran is unable to fire the missiles accurately over such a long distance, and for sure the accuracy will be improved eventually.

Iran in Talks with 8 Countries Regarding Giving Safe Passage of Yuan-Denominated Oil Going Through the Strait of Hormuz, Sources Said

 Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

人民元で取引される石油の安全なホルムズ海峡通過、イランが8カ国と協議　情報筋

2026.03.18 Wed posted at 11:00 JST

（CNN） イラン政府は中東以外の8カ国との間で、中国人民元で取引される石油の安全なホルムズ海峡通過を認めるイランの提案について協議していることが分かった。イランの治安情報筋がCNNに明らかにした。

これらの国は、イランが人民元で石油を取引する国の船舶に海峡通過を認める案を検討しているとの報道を受け、合意の可能性を探るためイラン政府に接触した。

情報筋は8カ国の国名を明らかにしなかった。イランは現在の封鎖措置を維持することに加え、海峡を通る船の交通を管理することを含むより広範な対応も検討しているという。

イランは先日、米国やイスラエル、その同盟国の船舶を攻撃目標にすると表明。世界の石油の約5分の1が通過する航路を事実上封鎖する形となり、エネルギー価格の急騰を招いている。ホルムズ海峡への機雷の敷設も開始しており、海峡再開に向けた今後の取り組みは複雑化しそうだ。

Translation

Iran in Talks with 8 Countries Regarding Giving Safe Passage of Yuan-Denominated Oil Going Through the Strait of Hormuz, Sources Said

March 18, 2026, Wed, posted at 11:00 JST

(CNN) The Iranian government was reportedly in discussions with eight countries outside the Middle East regarding Iran's proposal to allow safe passage of oil traded in Chinese yuan to go through the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian security source told CNN.

These countries contacted the Iranian government to explore the possibility of an agreement following reports that Iran was considering a plan to allow ships from countries trading oil in yuan to pass through the strait.

The source did not name the eight countries. Iran was reportedly considering broader measures, including controlling shipping traffic through the strait, in addition to maintaining its current blockade.

Iran recently declared it would target US, Israeli, and their allied ships. This effectively blocked a shipping lane through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil passes, leading to a surge in energy prices. With the laying of mines in the Strait of Hormuz also beginning, future efforts toward reopening the strait were likely to become more complicated.

So, Iran is reportedly in discussions with some countries outside the Middle East to allow safe passage of oil traded in Chinese yuan to go through the Strait of Hormuz. I am interested to know what are these countries.

消息人士稱，去獲取伊朗的高濃縮鈾需要美國投入大量地面部隊

Recently CNN.com reported the following:

Capturing Iran’s highly enriched uranium would require a large US ground force, sources say

CNN - By Natasha Bertrand, Zachary Cohen, Haley Britzky, Avery Schmitz

10 Mar 2026

Recovering Iran’s remaining highly enriched uranium stockpile believed to be sitting in a storage facility deep underground, an objective the Trump administration has been discussing, would require a significant number of US ground troops beyond a small special operations footprint, seven current and former officials familiar with the military planning told CNN.

The US bombing campaign that struck three Iranian nuclear facilities last June did not destroy all of that country’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, the material needed to create a nuclear weapon. Much of it is believed to be at Iran’s Isfahan nuclear site, said three of the sources. President Donald Trump has made complete elimination of Iran’s nuclear capability one of his stated aims of the war.

If the Trump administration went ahead with an operation to retrieve the uranium, it could mark the first major commitment of US ground forces as part of the campaign, an escalation that would put a large number of troops in harm’s way as part of a complex mission to move or render safe tons of highly radioactive material.

The uranium at Isfahan is accessible to the Iranians, who had been working for months after the US military strikes last year to clear the rubble of the facility’s aboveground structures and access the underground tunnels where the uranium was hidden, two of the sources said. UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday that around 200 kilograms of Iran’s highly enriched uranium is probably still at Isfahan, with some also at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.

Highly enriched uranium is a dual-use material, and Iran has said it produces it only for peaceful energy purposes. But enriching it above a certain threshold — around 90% —means it can be used to create nuclear weapons. Iran’s uranium is currently enriched at around 60%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The White House and Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment ahead of publication.

Trump has repeatedly said that Iran can never be allowed to have a nuclear weapons program. “One thing is certain: I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon,” he said last month.

‘The logistics and risk involved would be prohibitive’

US military airstrikes alone can’t penetrate the Isfahan tunnels, primarily because the facility does not have ventilation shaft openings like some of Iran’s other nuclear sites, which serve as weak points for a storage structure. That has led to discussions within the Trump administration about deploying elite units within the US military’s Joint Special Operations Command, potentially in coordination with Israeli commando forces, to physically infiltrate the tunnels and secure or destroy the enriched uranium, the sources said.

A mission like that, however, would require dozens if not hundreds of additional troops on the ground to help support the core special operations team tasked with finding the uranium, the sources said, particularly given the Iranian military’s continued control over the sites and surrounding area. That support could entail not just troops to secure the area, but also logistical support given the challenges of working with nuclear material deep underground.

Delta Force and Seal Team 6 operators receive training in countering weapons of mass destruction, and US Special Operations Command has been the lead group for the Pentagon’s counter-WMD mission for nearly a decade. Several elements of the US government also have teams that are designated “render safe units” that can handle radiological material, one of the sources said. JSOC also has contingency plans to either “render safe” the material underground and/or render the facility unusable.

One retired special forces officer not involved in the planning told CNN that in their experience, a mission like this would probably require a tier one special operations unit; specialized explosive ordnance disposal personnel attached to that team; outer security which could be either the 75th Ranger Regiment or the 82nd Airborne Division depending on how large the area is and how many people are needed; exfiltration and infiltration assets like MC-130J aircraft or MH-47 Chinook helicopters; and consistent air cover overhead throughout the mission.

“The logistics and risk involved would be prohibitive, to say the least,” said one person familiar with the discussions.

In a sign that the US could be keeping its options open, at least six MC-130Js are now flying out of RAF Mildenhall in the United Kingdom, according to flight data and satellite imagery reviewed by CNN, positioning them closer to Iran if called upon.

These variants of the C-130 cargo plane are specially equipped to support covert infiltration and exfiltration of US commandos into hostile environments.

A satellite image captured over the airbase on March 5 appears to show several MC-130Js parked on the tarmac.

Three of the six aircraft identified are newly arrived to RAF Mildenhall, having flown in from across Europe in recent weeks. Three others have been based out of RAF Mildenhall for months.

The same dataset suggests nearly every aircraft has participated in training missions over the United Kingdom and North Sea in recent weeks.

The Iranian regime, meanwhile, is proving resilient in the face of relentless US-Israeli airstrikes. Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has been installed as Iran’s new ayatollah — a signal that Iran’s leadership has no intention of folding to American pressure.

Without the outright collapse of the regime, some level of diplomatic engagement rather than just sheer military power will likely be required to eliminate Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, multiple sources said.

Translation

消息人士稱，去獲取伊朗的高濃縮鈾需要美國投入大量地面部隊

根據七位熟悉軍事計劃的現任和前任官員向 CNN 透露，特朗普政府一直在討論獲取相信存放在地下深處的儲存設施中的伊朗剩餘高濃縮鈾庫存，但這需要投入大量美國地面部隊，遠非小型特種作戰部隊所能及。

去年六月，美國對伊朗三處核設施的轟炸並未摧毀該國全部的高濃縮鈾庫存，而這些高濃縮鈾是製造核武所需的材料。三位消息人士稱，據信其中大部分仍存放在伊朗伊斯法罕(Isfahan) 核設施。特朗普總統已將徹底消除伊朗的核能力列為此次戰爭的設定目標之一。

如特朗普政府真的啟動奪取鈾的行動，這可能標誌著美國地面部隊會首次大規模參與這項行動，事態升級意味著大量士兵將身陷險境，執行一項複雜的任務，即轉移或安全處置數噸高放射性物質。 

兩名消息人士稱，伊朗方面可以接觸到伊斯法罕的鈾。在去年美軍空襲之後，伊朗方面已經進行了數月的清理工作，以清除該設施地上建築的廢墟，並進入藏匿鈾的地下隧道。聯合國核子監督機構負責人拉斐爾·格羅西(Rafael Grossi)周一表示，伊朗約有200公斤高濃縮鈾可能仍在伊斯法罕，部分可能也藏在伊朗納坦茲(Natanz)核設施。

高濃縮鈾是一種兩用材料，伊朗方面表示，其生產高濃縮鈾僅用於和平能源用途。但將鈾濃縮至一定門檻以上 - 大約90% - 就意味著它可以用來製造核武。據國際原子能總署稱，伊朗目前的鈾濃縮度約為60%。

白宮和五角大廈在本文發表前未有回應置評請求。

特朗普曾多次表示，絕不允許伊朗計劃去擁有核武。他上個月說：“有一點是肯定的：我絕對不會允許這個世界頭號恐怖主義贊助者 - 無疑他們是 - 擁有核武器。”

“所涉及的後勤和風險將令人望而卻步”

僅靠美軍空襲無法突破伊斯法罕的地道，主要原因是該設施不像伊朗其他一些核設施那樣設有通風井口，而通風井口是儲存結構的弱點。消息人士稱，這引發了特朗普政府內部關於部署美軍聯合特種作戰司令部精銳部隊的討論，可能與以色列特種部隊協調行動，以滲透隧道並獲取或銷毀濃縮鈾。

消息人士還表示，鑑於伊朗軍方持續控制這些地點及其周邊地區，此類任務需要數十甚至數百名地面增援部隊來支援負責搜尋鈾的核心特種作戰小組。這種支援不僅包括確保區域安全的部隊，還包括後勤保護，因為在地下深處處理核子材料極具挑戰性。

三角洲部隊和海豹突擊隊第六分隊的隊員接受過應對大規模殺傷性武器的訓練，而美國特種作戰司令部近十年來一直是五角大廈反大規模殺傷性武器任務的領導單位。其中一位消息人士稱，美國政府的多個部門也設有專門處理放射性物質的「安全處置小組」。聯合特種作戰司令部（JSOC）也制定了應急計劃，以令到藏於地下物質「安全化」，及/或使該設施無法再被使用。

一位未參與計劃制定的退役特種部隊軍官告訴CNN，根據他們的經驗，此類任務可能需要一支一級特種作戰部隊；一支配備專業爆炸物處理人員的隊伍；外圍安保力量，根據區域大小和所需人員數量去出動第75遊騎兵團或第82空降師；撤離和滲透裝備，如 MC-130J 飛機或 MH-47 Chinook直升機；以及在整個任務期間持續的空中掩護。

一位熟悉討論內容的人士稱：“毫不誇張地說，其中涉及的後勤保障和風險是難以承受的。”

CNN查閱的飛行數據和衛星圖像顯示，至少有六架MC-130J運輸機目前正從英國米爾登霍爾 (Mildenhall)皇家空軍基地起飛，在需要部署時可以更能靠近伊朗的位置，這表明美國可能仍在保留各種選項。

這些C-130運輸機的衍生機種都經過特殊改裝，能夠支援美國特種部隊秘密滲透至敵對環境和撤離。

3月5日拍攝的一張空軍基地衛星影像顯示，數架MC-130J飛機停放在停機坪上。

已識別的六架飛機中有三架是最近幾週從歐洲各地飛往米爾登霍爾皇家空軍基地的。另外三架已在米爾登霍爾皇家空軍基地駐紮數月。

同一資料集顯示，幾乎所有飛機最近幾週都參與了在英國和北海上空的訓練任務。

同時，伊朗政權面對美以持續不斷的空襲時，展現了強大的韌性。前最高領袖哈梅內伊的次子穆傑塔巴·哈梅內伊(Mojtaba Khamenei)已被任命為伊朗新任最高領袖 - 這表明伊朗領導層無意屈服於美國的壓力。

多位消息人士稱，在伊朗政權徹底崩潰之前，要摧毀伊朗的濃縮鈾庫存，可能需要採取一定程度的外交手段，而不僅僅是依靠軍事力量。

So, the US bombing campaign that struck three Iranian nuclear facilities last June had not destroyed all the enriched uranium stockpile. That has led to discussions within the Trump administration about deploying US elite units, potentially in coordination with Israeli commando forces, to physically infiltrate the tunnels and secure or destroy the enriched uranium. A mission like that, however, would require dozens if not hundreds of additional troops to operate at a location controlled by the Iranian military. It seems that without a regime change in Iran, diplomatic engagement will likely be required to eliminate Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Apparent, Trump has not yet finished his job and let’s wait and see what Trump will do next.

「六十秒，就這麼簡單」：以色列與美國合作的精準行動刺殺哈梅內伊（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

‘Sixty seconds, that’s all it took’: the clinical Israeli-US operation to kill Ali Khamenei (2/2)

Mission that took just one minute to carry out was decades in making, but experts say it could be major strategic error

 US-Israel war on Iran – live updates

The Guardian - Jason Burke in Jerusalem

Sun 1 Mar 2026 14.27 EST

(continue)

The Mossad, an abbreviation of the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations in Hebrew, has been focused on Iran for decades, and has built deep networks of informants, agents and logistics there. This has allowed a series of operations including the assassination with a remote-controlled automatic machine gun of a top Iranian nuclear scientist travelling at speed in a car on a remote road, the infection with malware of computers running key parts of Iran’s nuclear programme and the theft of an archive of nuclear documents. The political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in 2024 with a bomb placed in his favorite room in a government guesthouse in Tehran.

During the 12-day war in June, Israeli agents managed to identify the homes of Iranian nuclear scientists, intelligence officials and military commanders – information that allowed dozens to be killed in a first wave of surprise attacks.

Melman said the Mossad had made a key change of strategy almost 20 years ago, deciding to recruit local agents within Iran who were given state-of-the-art equipment and high levels of training.

David Barnea, who has led the Mossad since 2021, built a special department for a “foreign legion” of agents who have been deployed across the Middle East on sensitive missions.

Such agents were easier to recruit in Iran, where many people were opposed to the ruling regime, than elsewhere, Melman said.

Israel was poised to assassinate Khamenei last year, but Trump was reluctant to risk regional escalation and the reaction of allies concerned by the killing of a head of state. Such reservations appear to have disappeared in the months since the brief conflict last year, which ended shortly after US bombers attacked Iranian nuclear facilities.

Israeli military officials said there had since been “really very enhanced cooperation” between Israel and the US on Iran.

The flow of information from the Mossad’s networks on the ground in Iran would have been merged last week with intelligence gathered through communications intercepted by the US.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if they locked on to a variety of means to track [Khamenei],” said Gerecht. “The Iranians are pretty sloppy. They love their phones. So maybe the supreme leader had a stack of burner phones but it’s about people he was calling regularly.”

Finally, information would have been fed through to the US and Israeli militaries to allow precise targeting information to be compiled and the orders to be given for that brief but deadly and destructive minute.

“Sixty seconds. That’s all it took for this operation, but it is the product of years in the making,” said Oded Ailam, a former head of the Mossad’s counter-terrorism division and a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. “The modern battlefield is no longer defined only by tanks and aircraft. It is defined by data, access, trust and timing. One minute can change a region.”

The CIA veteran said they believed the assassination was a mistake: “I think it was the wrong thing to do. Not from an ethical perspective – I have been fine with killing people, a lot of them in fact – but from a long-term strategic perspective.

“I know that when you take out someone’s leader you don’t solve the problem. You just create a new one.”

Translation

「六十秒，就這麼簡單」：以色列與美國合作的精準行動刺殺哈梅內伊（2/2）

這項僅用一分鐘就完成的任務，籌劃了數十年，但專家表示，這可能是個重大的策略失誤。

（繼續）

摩薩德(Mossad) ，即希伯來語「情報與特種作戰研究所」的縮寫，數十年來一直將目光聚焦在伊朗，並在伊朗建立了龐大的線人、特工和後勤網絡。這使得摩薩德得以實施一系列行動，包括用遙控自動機槍暗殺一名在偏僻道路上高速行駛的伊朗頂級核科學家、用惡意軟體感染運行伊朗核計劃關鍵部分的計算機，以及竊取一份核文件檔案。哈馬斯政治領袖伊斯梅爾·哈尼亞(Ismail Haniyeh)於2024年在德黑蘭一家政府招待所內他最喜歡的房間裡被炸彈暗殺。

在6月份為期12天的戰爭中，以色列特工成功鎖定了伊朗核科學家、情報官員和軍事指揮官的住所 - 這項訊息使以色列得以在第一波突襲中殺死數十人。

Melman表示，摩薩德在近20年前做出了關鍵戰略調整，決定在伊朗境內招募本地特工，並為他們配備最先進的裝備和高水準的訓練。

自2021年起擔任摩薩德局長的David Barnea建立了一個專門負責「外籍軍團」特工的部門，這些特工已被部署到中東各地執行敏感任務。

Melman說，在伊朗招募這類特工比在其他地方更容易，因為伊朗國內許多人反對執政政權。

去年，以色列曾準備暗殺哈梅內伊，但特朗普不願冒著地區局勢升級的風險，也不願承受盟友對暗殺國家元首的擔憂。自去年短暫衝突結束以來，這種顧慮似乎已經消失。那場衝突在美國轟炸機攻擊伊朗核設施後不久便結束。

以色列軍方官員表示，此後以色列和美國在伊朗問題上的合作「確實得到了極大的加強」。

上週，來自摩薩德在伊朗地面網路的資訊流與美國截獲的通訊情報進行了整合。

Gerecht說: 「如果他們利用各種手段追蹤[哈梅內伊]，我不會感到驚訝」; 「伊朗人做事相當馬虎。他們很喜歡用手機。所以，最高領袖可能有一堆一次性手機，但關鍵在於他經常聯繫的人」。

最終，相關訊息會傳遞給美國和以色列軍方，以編纂精確的目標資訊，並下達命令，執行那短暫但致命且具毀滅性的一分鐘打擊。

前摩薩德反恐部門負責人、耶路撒冷安全與外交事務中心研究員Oded Ailam說道: 「僅僅60秒。這次行動只花了這麼短的時間，但它卻是多年籌備的結果」;「現代戰場不再僅僅由坦克和飛機定義，它由數據、資訊獲取管道、信任和時機所決定。一分鐘就能改變一個地區」。

這位中情局老兵表示，他認為這次暗殺是個錯誤：「我認為這是錯的。不是從道德角度出發 - 我並不反對殺人，事實上，我殺過很多人 - 而是從長遠的戰略角度來看」。

“我知道，除掉一個領導人並不能解決問題，只會製造新的問題。”

              So, the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the culmination of decades of painstaking intelligence gathering by Israeli secret services. One objective of the attack by Israel and the US is to motivate a regime change in Tehran, another objective is to stop Iran to build its nuclear arsenal. While it is quite likely that when you take out someone’s leader you don’t solve the problem as it may just create a new one, the concrete immediate benefit of this attack is that Iran will need some time to restart its nucleus program. Apparent, this attack shows that the 21^st century battlefield is less defined by tanks and aircraft and more by missiles, drones, and all kinds of intelligence works plus data analysis and good timing. 

「六十秒，就這麼簡單」：以色列與美國合作的精準行動刺殺哈梅內伊（1/2）

Recently the Guardian reported the following:

‘Sixty seconds, that’s all it took’: the clinical Israeli-US operation to kill Ali Khamenei (1/2)

Mission that took just one minute to carry out was decades in making, but experts say it could be major strategic error

 US-Israel war on Iran – live updates

The Guardian - Jason Burke in Jerusalem

Sun 1 Mar 2026 14.27 EST

The assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was the culmination of decades of painstaking intelligence gathering by Israeli secret services, with crucial technological resources and manpower provided over the last six months by the CIA and other US intelligence services, which culminated in a single concentrated burst of lethal violence to decapitate the Iranian regime, according to experts, veteran spies and officials in Israel and the US.

Khamenei was killed along with seven “members of the top Iranian security leadership who had gathered at several locations in Tehran” and about a dozen members of his family and close entourage in near-simultaneous strikes within 60 seconds, military officials in Israel said. Forty other senior Iranian leaders also died in the attack.

The killing of Khamenei, 86, opened the air offensive launched this weekend by Israel and the US in an effort to overthrow the radical clerical regime in Tehran, plunging the Middle East into renewed chaos and violence.

Some experts and intelligence veterans, however, described a possible strategic error that could alienate potential supporters or open the way for more radical opponents in the future.

“The problem is that Israel is in love with assassinations … and we never learn that it is not the solution. We have killed all the leaders of Hamas. They are still there. It’s the same with Hezbollah. The leaders are always replaced,” said Yossi Melman, a respected Israeli analyst and author specialising in intelligence.

Israel has a long history of conducting assassinations overseas, but has never before killed a head of state.

Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israel’s military intelligence service, said the strike was “a tactical surprise, an operational surprise” because the general expectation was that Israel would attack in darkness, replicating the surprise strike which opened the 12-day war in June.

The timing of the assassination was determined by information the CIA gleaned about a meeting of top Iranian officials at a leadership compound in the heart of Tehran scheduled for Saturday morning. Most critically, the CIA was able to tell Israeli counterparts that Khamenei would be at the site and the timing of the meeting, according to the New York Times.

Israeli spies had also been tracking Khamenei for many years, building a minutely detailed file on his daily routine and those of his family members, associates, allies and those charged with keeping him safe.

“It’s like a giant jigsaw puzzle. You are putting all these scraps of information together. Where you don’t have [reliable data] you look further into those. It will be everything: how do they get food, what happens to their trash … We all get up and go to bed, we all eat and drink,” said a former CIA veteran with decades of experience in tracking high-profile terrorist targets.

“We are in a world where information and data is so multi-layered that there is no one who doesn’t leave some kind of trail. Everything you do leaves a print.”

Reuel Gerecht, a former CIA targeting officer who worked on Iran and an analyst at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said the US would have been able to bring significant technological assets into play, though it was Israel that had built the networks of agents on the ground capable of supplying human intelligence and carrying out covert operations within Iran.

Gerecht said reports in the Israeli media that a photograph of Khamenei’s remains were shown to Donald Trump and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, were plausible.

“The technological capacity of the US is extremely impressive and the tech does matter a lot, but I don’t think that the [CIA] had a lot to bring to the table in terms of [human intelligence] or covert action networks,” he said.

“If you combine the technological capacity with the networks on the ground that would certainly amplify its effectiveness.”

(to be continued)

Translation

「六十秒，就這麼簡單」：以色列與美國合作的精準行動刺殺哈梅內伊（1/2）

這項僅用一分鐘完成的任務，籌劃了數十年，但專家表示，這可能是個重大的戰略失誤。

據以色列和美國的專家、資深間諜和官員稱，刺殺伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊，是以色列情報機構數十年來艱苦卓絕的情報收集工作的最終成果。在過去六個月裡，美國中央情報局和其他情報機構提供了關鍵的技術資源和人力，最終促成了這次集中而致命的暴力行動，旨在剷除伊朗政權。

以色列軍方官員稱，哈梅內伊與七名「聚集在德黑蘭各處的伊朗高級安全領導人」以及約十幾名他的家人和隨行人員在60秒內幾乎同時遭到空襲身亡。另有四十名伊朗高階領導人也在攻擊中喪生。

86歲的哈梅內伊遇害，拉開了以色列和美國本週末發起的空襲的序幕，這場空襲旨在推翻德黑蘭的激進神權政權，空襲使中東再次陷入混亂和暴力之中。

然而，一些專家和資深情報人員指出，這可能是戰略失誤，可能會疏遠潛在的支持者，或為未來更激進的反對派打開方便之門。

以色列著名情報分析家兼作家Yossi Melman說道。「問題在於以色列熱衷於暗殺……而我們始終不明白，暗殺並非解決之道。我們殺死了哈馬斯的所有領導人，但他們依然存在。真主黨也是如此，領導人總是會被替換」。

以色列在海外進行暗殺行動由來已久，但此前從未暗殺國家元首。

以色列前軍事情報局局長Amos Yadlin表示，此次襲擊是“一次戰術上的突襲，一次行動上的出其不意”，因為人們普遍預期以色列會在夜間發動襲擊，重演6月份那場開啟12天戰爭的突襲行動。

這次暗殺行動的時機是由美國中央情報局根據先前掌握的情報確定的，情報顯示，伊朗高級官員將於週六上午在德黑蘭市中心的一處領導人住所舉行會議。根據《紐約時報》報道，最關鍵的是，中央情報局能夠提前告知以色列方面哈梅內伊將出席會議地點以及會議時間。

以色列間諜多年來一直在追蹤哈梅內伊，建立了一份極其詳盡的檔案，記錄著他及其家人、同僚、盟友以及負責保護他的人的日常生活。

一位在中央情報局工作數十年、擁有追踪資深恐怖分子目標經驗的資深人士說道:「這就像一個巨大的拼圖遊戲。你要把所有這些零碎的信息拼湊起來。對於沒有可靠數據的地方，你要進一步調查。這涵蓋方方面面：他們如何獲取食物，他們的垃圾如何處理……我們每天都要起床睡覺，都要吃飯喝水」。

“我們身處一個資訊和數據那麼大量疊加的世界，令沒有人能不留任何痕跡。你做的每一件事都會留下印記。”

曾任中央情報局（CIA）伊朗問題目標定位官員、現任保衛民主基金會分析師的Reuel Gerecht表示，美國本可以投入大量技術資源，但以色列才是建立起在伊朗境內提供人力情報並開展秘密行動的特工網絡的人。

Gerecht稱，以色列媒體報道稱，特朗普和以色列總理內塔尼亞胡曾看過哈梅內伊遺體的照片的說法是可信的。

他說:「美國的技術能力令人印象深刻，技術的確至關重要，但我認為（CIA）在 [人力情報]或秘密行動網絡方面並沒有太多貢獻」。

“如果將技術能力與實地網絡相結合，無疑會大大提升行動的有效性。”

（待續）

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（2/2）

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran (2/2)

The Associated Press - Julia Frankel and Sam Mednick

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 5:48 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(continue)

Using AI and human intelligence to select targets

To analyze information gathered from various sources, Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence, or AI, technology, said an intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target. He said AI was used to help Israelis quickly sift through troves of data they had obtained. That effort began last October according to the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media; it was one month before Netanyahu said he had ordered the attack plans.

An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year uncovered that the Israeli military uses U.S.-made AI models in war to sift through intelligence and intercept communications to learn the movements of its enemies. It's been used in the wars with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The intelligence officer involved in identifying the possible targets said options were first put into various groups, such as leadership, military, civilian and infrastructure. Targets were chosen if they were determined to be a threat to Israel, such as being deeply associated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard — a paramilitary force that controls Iran’s ballistic missiles.

The officer was tasked with putting together a list of Iranian generals, including details on where they worked and spent their free time.

Among the high-level military officials killed since Friday's attack were Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces.

In addition to AI, the Mossad relied on spies to identify top nuclear scientists and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to one security official. At least eight members of the Guard, including the head of its missile program, were killed in a single Israeli strike on an underground bunker.

Targeting Iranian vehicles

Another facet of the attack was to strike Iranian vehicles used to transport and launch missiles.

Shine said the strategy was similar to a Ukrainian operation earlier this month in Russia. In that operation, nearly a third of Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet was destroyed or damaged with cheaply made drones snuck into Russian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.

In an interview with Iranian state-run television, the country's police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, said “several vehicles carrying mini-drones and some tactical drones have been discovered.” He added: “a number of traitors are trying to engage the country’s air defense by flying some mini-drones.”

 How far back does this go?

The Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear program over the years, including cyberattacks and the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. But it rarely acknowledges such operations.

In the 2000s, Iranian centrifuges used for enriching uranium were destroyed by the so-called Stuxnet computer virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation.

In 2018, Israel stole an archive of Iranian nuclear research that included tens of thousands of pages of records, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired general and former military intelligence researcher who now directs the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

In July 2024, Israel killed a senior leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, with a bomb in a bedroom of a government guesthouse in Tehran.

Israel's blistering attack last week on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure didn’t come out of nowhere, said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank.

It was the result of “Israeli intelligence working extensively for years in Iran and establishing a very strong robust presence,” he said.

Translation

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（2/2）

（繼續）

利用人工智能和人類智慧選擇目標

一位參與選擇目標人物和地點的情報官員表示，為了分析從各種來源收集的信息，以色列使用了最新的人工智能（AI）技術。他表示，人工智能被用來幫助以色列人快速篩選他們所獲得的大量數據。據這位官員透露，這項工作始於去年10月。由於未獲授權接受媒體採訪，這位官員不願透露姓名，這是內塔尼亞胡宣布下令實施攻擊計劃之前一個月。

美聯社今年稍早的一項調查發現，以色列軍方在戰爭中使用美國製造的人工智能模型來篩選情報並攔截通信，以了解敵人的動向。它曾在與加薩走廊的哈馬斯以及黎巴嫩真主黨的戰爭中被使用過。

參與確定潛在目標的情報官員表示，目標首先被分為不同類別，例如領導層、軍隊、平民和基礎設施。如果目標被確定為對以色列構成威脅，例如與伊朗革命衛隊（一支控制伊朗彈道飛彈的準軍事部隊）關係密切，就會被選中。

該官員的任務是整理一份伊朗將軍名單，包括他們工作地點和空閒時間的詳細資料。

自周五襲擊事件以來，遇難的高級軍官包括伊朗革命衛隊負責人 Hossein Salami 將軍和伊朗武裝部隊總參謀長 Mohammed Bagheri 將軍。

據一位安全官員稱，除了人工智能之外，摩薩德還依靠間諜來識別伊朗革命衛隊的高級核科學家和成員。以色列對一座地下掩體的攻擊中，至少有八名伊朗革命衛隊成員喪生，其中包括其飛彈計劃的負責人。

 

瞄準伊朗車輛

這次攻擊的另一個目的是打擊用於運輸和發射飛彈的伊朗車輛。

Shine 表示，這項策略與本月稍早烏克蘭在俄羅斯的行動類似。據烏克蘭官員稱，在那次行動中，莫斯科近三分之一的戰略轟炸機機隊被偷偷運入俄羅斯領土的廉價無人機摧毀或損壞。

在接受伊朗國家電視台採訪時，伊朗警察局長 Ahmadreza Radan 將軍表示： “已發現數輛載有微型無人機和一些戰術無人機的車輛” 。他還補充道： “一些叛徒正試圖通過驅動一些微型無人機來打擊該國的防空系統。”

這行動要追溯到什麼時候？

一般相信摩薩德多年來對伊朗核計畫發動了多次秘密攻擊，包括網路攻擊和殺害伊朗核科學家。但該組織很少承認此類行動。

進入21世紀，伊朗用於濃縮鈾的離心機被所謂的「震網」（Stuxnet）電腦病毒摧毀，據信該病毒是由以色列和美國共同開發的。

退休將軍、前軍事情報研究員、現任耶路撒冷戰略與安全研究所所長的 Yossi Kuperwasser 表示，2018年，以色列竊取了一份包含數萬頁記錄的伊朗核子研究檔案。

2024年7月，以色列在德黑蘭一家政府賓館的臥室裡用炸彈炸死了哈馬斯高級領導人 Ismail Haniye。

以色列退休準將現在是以色列國防與安全論壇智庫的負責人 Amir Avivi 將軍表示, 以色列上週對伊朗核和軍事核心結構發動的猛烈攻擊並非憑空而來。

這是「以色列情報部門多年來在伊朗廣泛開展工作並建立起堅實的立足點」的結果。

So, Israel shocked Iran when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision. Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate was greatly diminished. Apparent, Israel’s intelligent network is working very effectively.

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（1/2）

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran (1/2)

The Associated Press - Julia Frankel and Sam Mednick

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 5:48 a.m. PDT·6 min read

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel stunned and hobbled Iran last week when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.

Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate — already weakened by past Israeli strikes — was greatly diminished.

This account is based on conversations with 10 current and former Israeli intelligence and military officials, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss clandestine operations.

It was not possible to independently verify some of their claims. But the former head of research at Israel's spy agency, the Mossad, confirmed the basic contours of the attack, saying she had inside knowledge of how it was planned and executed.

“This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran's nuclear program,” said Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director who is now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.

Israel’s element of surprise was enhanced by Iranian officials’ apparent assumption that Israel wouldn’t attack while talks over its rapidly advancing nuclear program were ongoing with the U.S.

A sixth round of talks had been planned for last Sunday in Oman, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu activated “Operation Rising Lion” on Friday – after his country first notified President Donald Trump.

Netanyahu has for years said neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program was vital for Israel’s security, and Israel had previously taken steps to set back Iran's ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade. But Netanyahu said a more aggressive attack proved necessary, as Iran kept advancing its enrichment program despite U.S. diplomatic efforts and warnings from U.N. watchdogs.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction. Iran's political leaders say their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though it was the only country without the bomb to enrich uranium close to weapons-grade levels.

Smuggling drones into Iran

The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack. This person spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.

The attack built off knowledge Israel gained during a wave of airstrikes last October, which “highlighted the weakness of Iranian air defenses,” said Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.

To further diminish Iranian air defenses and missile systems at the start of last week's attack, Mossad agents had smuggled precision weapons into Iran that were prepositioned to strike from close range, according to two current security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the missions. Those weapons included small, armed drones, which agents snuck into the country in vehicles, according to the former intelligence officer.

Mossad agents stationed weapons close to Iranian surface-to-air missile sites, Shine said. The agency works with a mix of people, both locals and Israelis, she said.

(to be continued)

Translation

以色列如何利用間諜、走私無人機和人工智能震懾並牽制伊朗（1/2）

耶路撒冷（美聯社） - 上週，以色列完成了一項醞釀多年的情報和軍事行動，精確打擊了伊朗高層目標，震懾並牽制了伊朗。

在間諜和人工智能的指導下，以色列軍方在夜間發動了由走私到伊朗的戰機和武裝無人機組成的猛烈攻擊，迅速摧毀了伊朗的許多防空和飛彈系統。憑藉更大的飛行自由，以色列轟炸了伊朗關鍵的核設施，並殺死了高級將領和科學家。幾個小時後，當伊朗做出回應時，其報復能力 - 因已被以色列的襲擊所削弱 - 大大減少。

本報告是基於與10名現任和前任以色列情報和軍事官員的對話，其中一些要求匿名，以討論秘密行動。

部分說法無法獨立核實。但以色列情報機構摩薩德 (Mossad) 前研究主管證實了這次攻擊的基本輪廓，並表示她掌握了攻擊計劃和執行的內部資訊。

前摩薩德研究主管、現任國家安全研究所分析師 Sima Shine 說道: 「這次襲擊是摩薩德多年來針對伊朗核計劃努力的結晶」。

伊朗官員顯然認為，在以色列與美國就其快速推進的核子計劃進行談判期間，以色列不會發動攻擊，這增強了以色列的出其不意。

第六輪談判原定於上週日在阿曼舉行，但以色列總理內塔尼亞胡於週五啟動了 “崛起雄獅行動” - 此前以色列已率先通知了特朗普總統。

多年來，內塔尼亞胡一直表示，消除伊朗核計劃對以色列安全至關重要，以色列先前也曾採取措施，阻止伊朗將鈾濃縮至武器級。但內塔尼亞胡表示，鑑於伊朗不顧美國的外交努力和聯合國監督機構的警告，仍在繼續推進其鈾濃縮計劃，因此有必要採取更具侵略性的打擊。

伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊曾多次呼籲摧毀以色列。伊朗政治領袖聲稱，他們的核子計劃是用於和平目的，儘管伊朗是唯一一個國家沒有核武而去將鈾濃縮至接近武器級別。

將無人機走私到伊朗

 據一位知情的前情報官員稱，摩薩德和軍方至少合作了三年，為這次襲擊奠定了行動基礎。鑑於事態的敏感性，此人要求匿名。

國際危機組 的伊朗問題分析師 Naysan Rafati 表示，這次襲擊是基於以色列在去年10月空襲浪潮中獲得的訊息，這些空襲「凸顯了伊朗防空系統的薄弱」。

據兩位不願透露姓名的現任安全官員透露，為了在上週襲擊開始時進一步削弱伊朗的防空和導彈系統，摩薩德特工已將精確武器武器走私到伊朗，這些武器預先部署用於近距離打擊。前情報官員透露，這些武器包括小型武裝無人機，由特工用車輛偷偷帶入伊朗。

Shine 說，摩薩德特工在伊朗地對空飛彈發射場附近部署了武器。她還表示，該機構與當地人和以色列人都有合作。

（待續）