美國對石油的依賴遠低於以往

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

America Depends Less on Oil Than Ever

Gasoline still drives household budgets, but energy efficiency and renewables have reduced the economy’s overall reliance on petroleum.

The New York Times - By Lydia DePillis, Karl Russell contributed reporting.

March 14, 2026, 5:02 a.m. ET

War with Iran has frozen commerce in the Persian Gulf and boosted oil prices by more than 50 percent worldwide, translating almost immediately into higher gasoline costs. It’s the largest global oil disruption ever and is likely to accelerate inflation throughout this year.

And yet, in the United States, the impact is much more muted than it would have been a few decades ago.

That’s in part because America uses less energy per unit of economic output than it used to. In economist-speak, the U.S. economy is less “energy intensive,” for a few reasons.

One, the U.S. economy now depends largely on services like health care, retail and entertainment, which require much less energy than manufacturing industries. There are only about 21 million jobs in goods-producing sectors, while private services employ 114 million people.

And two, the machines that Americans do use are now much more efficient, a trend that started in earnest after the oil price shocks of the 1970s. According to the Department of Transportation, the average new light-duty vehicle gets 28 miles per gallon of gas, up from 13 in 1975. Gasoline consumption rose until 2007, then leveled off as electric vehicles gained traction. As a result, consumer spending on gas as a share of discretionary income has fallen.

Economists at Wells Fargo estimate that a sustained 50 percent rise in oil prices — similar to the current situation — would have had about twice the effect in the 1980s as it would today, when it’s expected to trim about one percentage point from annual consumer spending growth.

The United States has also become the world’s largest oil and gas producer. Rather than depend on supply from the Middle East, the rest of the world now consumes petroleum products that are fracked from North Dakota and West Texas.

All that new supply helped bring down prices globally in the 2010s, especially after Congress lifted a ban on natural gas exports in 2015. Theoretically, it means that profits from oil production stay in the United States, and can be redeployed for other investment. According to research from the Dallas and Kansas Federal Reserve branches, the shale boom added 1 percent to gross domestic product.

However, it is not clear that U.S. drillers are inclined to play the role of “swing producer” again this time. Price competition during the fracking boom was ruinous for investors. Many companies went bankrupt, unable to pay back all the money they had borrowed for expensive extraction infrastructure. They learned a lesson: Don’t invest a lot of money in pumping more just because prices rise. Especially if you’re not sure whether those prices will sink back down.

“I don’t see much happening from the production side in order to mitigate the effects for the U.S. economy,” said Christiane Baumeister, an economics professor at the University of Notre Dame who studies oil markets. “Companies just prioritize delivering returns to shareholders,” she said. “I think they would rather take advantage of the current situation to increase profits rather than investing that back into expanding output.”

Another deterrent to ramping up production: Steel and aluminum tariffs have raised the cost of the pipes and valves needed for it. The number of oil rigs that are actively pumping in the United States is down 7 percent from this time last year.

Even with the U.S. oil industry operating at full steam, it doesn’t generate many benefits for U.S. workers, as oil companies have learned how to operate with fewer people. The United States is pumping more oil and gas than ever, but the extraction, drilling and oil field services industries have been shedding jobs. The sector employs about 363,000 people, which is about 0.2 percent of all employment.

The Shale Jobs Boom Is Over

And despite the huge boom in U.S. oil production over the past 15 years, it has not become a more meaningful part of Americans’ stock portfolios. Exxon Mobil and Chevron had long been among the most valuable companies in the stock market. But the entire oil and gas sector now makes up just 3.2 percent of the S&P 500 index, down from 5.5 percent a decade ago. Their stocks had consistently underperformed the broader index, until soaring oil prices lifted their fortunes after the United States and Israel attacked Iran.

“The oil and gas industry’s financial strategy has been ‘pray for war,’ because those are the conditions under which they make money,” said Clark Williams-Derry, an oil industry financial analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “They have to have a big price spike every few years literally to make ends meet.”

The Americans most vulnerable to an oil-price shock are people with lower incomes who haven’t been able to buy their way out of gasoline dependence. Electric vehicles are more expensive than gas-powered cars, and their owners are disproportionately affluent and well educated, according to a recent paper by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University. As the Trump administration rolls back energy efficiency standards for appliances and fuel economy rules for cars, oil price increases could start to have a bigger impact.

Lower-Income Americans Spend More on Fuel

Electricity bills are another substantial cost, absorbing 3.6 percent of budgets for households in the lowest 20 percent of earners, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although renewable energy sources have been supplying more of that electricity, fossil fuels still account for 60 percent.

“Talk to someone who doesn’t make a lot of money, and see if they’re resilient to oil and gas,” Mr. Williams-Derry said. “In terms of a variable expenditure that you can’t control, it’s up there.”

Translation

美國對石油的依賴遠低於以往

汽油仍然是家庭預算的主要支出，但能源效率和再生能源的發展降低了美國經濟整體地對石油的依賴

美國與伊朗的戰爭導致波斯灣地區的貿易停滯，並使全球油價上漲超過50%，幾乎立即推高了汽油價格。這是有史以​​來規模最大的全球石油供應中斷事件，並可能在今年加速通膨。

然而，在美國，戰爭的影響遠比幾十年前小得多。

部分原因是美國每單位經濟產出的能源消耗量比以往低。用經濟學家的話來說，由於以下幾個原因，美國經濟的「能源密集度」降低了。

首先，美國經濟如今主要依賴醫療保健、零售和娛樂等服務業，這些產業所需的能源遠低於製造業。商品生產業的就業人數僅約2,100萬個，而私人服務業則僱用了1.14億人。

其次，美國人使用的機器效率大幅提升，趨勢始於1970年代的石油危機之後。根據美國交通部統計，目前新型輕型車輛的平均油耗為每加侖汽油行駛28英里，高於1975年的13英里。汽油消耗量在2007年之前持續曾長，之後隨著電動車的普及而趨於平穩。因此，消費者在汽油上的支出佔可支配收入所得的比例下降。

富國銀行的經濟學家估計，如果油價持續上漲50% - 類似於目前的情況 - 其影響在1980年代將是現在的兩倍左右，現預計只會使年度消費者支出成長率下降約1個百分點。

美國也成為全球最大的石油和天然氣生產國。如今，世界其他地區不再依賴中東的供應，而是消費來自北達科他州和西德克薩斯州頁岩氣開採的石油產品。

所有這些新增供應在2010年代幫助全球油價下降，尤其是在國會於2015年解除天然氣出口禁令之後。理論上，這意味著石油生產的利潤留在美國，可以重新用於其他投資。根據達拉斯和堪薩斯聯邦儲備銀行的研究，頁岩氣繁榮使美國國內生產毛額增加了1%。

然而，目前尚不清楚美國鑽井公司是否願意再次扮演「搖擺生產商」的角色。頁岩氣繁榮時期的價格競爭給投資者帶來了毀滅性的打擊。許多公司破產，無力償還為昂貴的開採基礎設施而貸來的所有資金。他們吸取了一個教訓：不要因為價格上漲就投入大量資金增加產量。尤其是在不確定油價是否會回落的情況下。

聖母大學研究石油市場的經濟學教授 Christian Baumeister 表示:「我認為生產方面不會採取太多措施來緩解對美國經濟的影響」。她說: 「公司優先考慮的是為股東創造回報」; 「我認為他們寧願利用當前形勢增加利潤，而不是將利潤再投資於擴大產量」。

另一個阻礙增產的因素是：鋼鐵和鋁關稅提高了石油生產所需管線和閥門的成本。目前美國正在作業的鑽井平台數量比去年同期下降了7%。

即使美國石油業全力運作，也未能為美國工人帶來多少好處，因為石油公司已經學會如何以更少的人力去運作。美國的石油和天然氣產量比以往任何時候都高，但開採、鑽井和油田服務業卻一直在裁員。該行業僱用了約36.3萬人，約佔全部就業人數的0.2%。

頁岩油就業繁榮已經結束

儘管過去15年美國石油產量大幅成長，但它並未在美國人的股票投資組合中佔有更重要的地位。埃克森美孚和雪佛龍長期以來一直是股市中最有價值的公司之一。但如今，整個石油和天然氣產業在標普500指數中的佔比僅3.2%，低於十年前的5.5%。在美和以攻擊伊朗後，油價飆升才提振了它們的業績，此前它們的股票表現一直遜於大盤。

能源經濟與金融分析研究所的石油行業金融分析師Clark Williams-Derry表示:“石油和天然氣行業的財務策略一直是 ‘祈求戰爭’，因為只有在戰爭時期他們才能賺錢” ;“他們必須每隔幾年就經歷一次油價大幅上漲才能維持收支平衡。”

最容易受到油價衝擊的美國人是低收入者難以擺脫對汽油的依賴。卡內基美隆大學研究人員最近發表的一篇論文指出，電動車比汽油車更貴，而且電動車的車主往往更富裕、受過良好教育。隨著特朗普政府逐步取消家用電器能源效率標準和汽車燃油效率規定，油價上漲的影響可能會越來越大。

低收入美國人用較多錢在燃料上

電費是另一項重大開支，根據美國勞工統計局的數據顯示，電費佔收入最低的20%家庭預算的3.6%。儘管再生能源的電力供應佔比不斷提高，但化石燃料仍佔60%。

Williams-Derry先生說: 「和那些收入不高的人聊聊，看看他們是否能承受得住石油和天然氣的衝擊」; 「就你無法控制的可變動支出而言，這筆開支是相當可觀」。

        So, the war with Iran has boosted oil prices by more than 50 percent worldwide. But in the United States, the impact is much lighter than it would have been a few decades ago. In economic terms, the U.S. economy is less “energy intensive.” U.S. economy now depends largely on services like health care, retail and entertainment, which require much less energy than manufacturing industries. The Americans most vulnerable to an oil-price shock are those with lower incomes who haven’t been able to reduce their gasoline dependence.