中國GDP比預期強勁，得益於基礎建設支出（2/2）

 Recently the New York Times reported the following:

China’s G.D.P. Stronger Than Expected, Led by Infrastructure Spending (2/2)

A steep slide in housing prices has left consumers less prosperous and less willing to spend, but the government is pouring money into new rail lines and other projects.

By Keith Bradsher - Reporting from Beijing and Yancheng, China

April 15, 2026

(continue)

China remains better positioned than other major economies to weather disruptions to oil and gas supplies from the war in Iran because of its large stockpiles of fossil fuels and dominant position in renewable energy. But China’s March trade data showed some unexpected shifts that sharply narrowed the country’s trade surplus.

China’s exports of toys and footwear, once strong categories, fell as higher plastic costs from the war in the Middle East squeezed manufacturers. Chemical companies have continued raising prices, suggesting further pressure in the months ahead.

Exports of rare-earth metals also plummeted in March. Beijing severely restricted shipments to Japan, amid a dispute over relations with Taiwan.

The most notable change has been a surge in semiconductor imports, as China rapidly builds data centers for artificial intelligence. Computer chip purchases jumped in January and February and hit a record high in March, up 54 percent from a year earlier in U.S. dollar terms.

A weak renminbi, China’s currency, has made computer chip imports more expensive, adding to the drag on the economy. Beijing has kept its currency weak to boost exports, making Chinese goods more competitive abroad.

But that same currency weakness raises import costs. The increasing semiconductor costs also reflect heightened global demand for the computer chips needed to power A.I. While the renminbi has strengthened slightly over the past year, it remains far weaker than what economists consider its true market value.

Export sectors that rely heavily on steel are thriving in China these days. Domestic steel is cheap because of chronic oversupply and reluctance to close state-owned steel mills. With other countries’ tariffs limiting direct exports of steel, manufacturers are channeling the glut into finished goods like cars and ships, which face fewer trade barriers.

Li Rongchun, who owns a small business in Yancheng supplying acetylene and oxygen to nearby shipyards, said he had more orders than he could handle. “Right now, shipyards are building a lot of oil tankers and container ships, and many foreign clients are coming,” he said.

But in another nearby town, the picture is far more bleak. A resident who gave only his family name, Shao, said that property prices at complexes in his neighborhood had dropped by more than half over the past year and that even steep discounts were not enticing buyers.

“There are just too many empty apartments — even at very low prices, no one wants to buy them,” he said.

Residential construction has slowed sharply over the past four years, but apartment sales have declined even faster, leaving a growing glut of unsold homes and making buyers wary of committing their savings to a purchase.

Mr. Kuijs said prices were likely to keep falling this year before bottoming out next year. But with residential construction already down so much, there isn’t much room for building activity to fall further. Any stabilization would ease a major drag on growth.

“That drag will remain this year,” Mr. Kuijs said, “but it probably won’t be as intense as it was in previous years.”

Translation

中國GDP比預期強勁，得益於基礎建設支出（2/2）

房價暴跌導致消費者收入減少，消費意願下降，但政府正大力投資新鐵路和其他項目

（繼續）

由於擁有龐大的化石燃料儲備和在再生能源領域的主導地位，中國比其他主要經濟體更能抵禦伊朗戰爭造成的油氣供應中斷。但中國3月的貿易數據顯示，出現了一些意料之外的變化，導致該國貿易順差大幅收窄。

玩具和鞋類出口曾是中國出口強項，但由於中東戰爭導致塑膠成本上漲，製造商面臨壓力，這些出口量下降。化工企業持續漲價，預示未來幾個月將面臨更大的壓力。

稀土金屬出口在3月也大幅下滑。在關於日本與台灣關係有爭議之下，北京嚴格限制了對日的出口。

最顯著的變化是半導體進口激增，因為中國正在快速建造人工智能數據庫。 1月和2月電腦晶片採購量大幅成長，3月創下歷史新高，以美元計價年增54%。

人民幣疲軟導致電腦晶片進口成本上升，進一步拖累了經濟成長。北京一直維持人民幣疲軟促進出口，提升中國商品在海外的競爭力。

但人民幣疲軟也推高了進口成本。半導體成本的上漲也反映出全球對人工智能所需電腦晶片的需求不斷增長。儘管人民幣在過去一年略有走強，但仍遠低於經濟學家認為的真正市場價值。

目前在中國，那些嚴重依賴鋼鐵的出口產業正蓬勃發展。由於長期供應過剩以及不願關閉國有鋼鐵廠，國內鋼鐵價格低廉。由於其他國家的關稅限制了鋼鐵的直接出口，製造商正將過剩的鋼鐵轉向汽車和船舶等成品，這些產品面臨的貿易壁壘較少。

Li Rongchun在Yancheng經營一家向附近造船廠供應乙炔和氧氣的小企業，他說訂單已經應接不暇。他說: 「現在造船廠正在建造大量的油輪和貨櫃船，很多外國客戶也來了」。

但在附近的另一個城鎮，情況卻黯淡得多。一位只透露姓Shao的居民說，他所在社區的房價在過去一年下跌了一半以上，即使大幅降價也無濟於事。

他說:「空置的住宅單位太多了 - 即使價格很低，也沒人願意買」。

過去四年，住宅建設速度大幅放緩，但住宅單位銷售速度下降得更快，導致大量房屋滯銷，也讓購屋者對拿出積蓄去買房猶豫不決。

Kuijs先生表示，房價今年可能會繼續下跌，明年才會觸底。但由於住宅興建大幅下滑，建築活動進一步下降的空間已經不大。任何穩定措施都將緩解增長所面臨的主要阻力。

Kuijs先生說: “這種阻力今年依然存在” ， “但可能不會像往年那麼嚴重。”

So, strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure have offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus. China’s consumer services sector has been struggling. Exports have propped up the Chinese economy through much of its housing slump since 2021. But this time they fail to offset broader weakness after a surge in the import of computer chips. I am interested in know how will the economy perform in the medium-term using infrastructure investments to offset weak consumer spendings. I am also interested in knowing where the investment money comes from.