中國正在海上打造下一個前哨

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Antelope Reef in South China Sea (Source: The NYT)

How China Is Building Its Next Outpost at Sea

The NYT - By Lily Kuo and Agnes Chang (Tung Ngo and Pei-Lin Wu contributed reporting)

 April 22, 2026

Over the last few months, China has been quietly and quickly building an island in disputed waters off the coast of Vietnam that will help Beijing continue to dominate one of the most crucial waterways in the world. China claims about 90 percent of the South China Sea, including parts that are also claimed by several Southeast Asian countries.

Satellite imagery going back to November shows Chinese dredgers building a crescent-shaped island on Antelope Reef in the Paracels, a cluster of islands and reefs where China, Taiwan and Vietnam have competing claims.

By April, the edges of the island had been shaped and jetties, a helipad and unpaved roads were visible. It was almost twice the size of New York’s Central Park and appeared to still be under construction.

Analysts say that given its size and the ongoing expansion, Antelope Reef is likely to become one of China’s largest military outposts in the region. Such islands typically have airstrips, radar, electronic warfare facilities and missile bunkers. The bases support China’s Navy and Air Force, helping them operate farther from China’s mainland. China’s Coast Guard and maritime militia, made up of thousands of civilian fishing boats that help assert Beijing’s presence in the waters, use them too.

Analysts tracking China’s island-building activities were surprised to see the new construction because China already had several outposts in contested waters and had largely stopped major construction of such artificial islands.

“The strategic logic of it is not super obvious,” said Harrison Prétat, deputy director and fellow with the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The sense was they don’t need anything else,” he said.

Between 2013 and 2017, China built or expanded more than 20 military outposts in the South China Sea that are able to house troops. That included three larger military bases across the Spratly Islands — a chain more than 900 miles from the Chinese mainland, but within 300 miles of the Philippine coast — and one in the Paracels. The island-building campaign, which was unprecedented in its scope and speed, prompted international condemnation and damaged China’s ties with its Southeast Asian neighbors as well as the United States.

Mr. Prétat said the latest construction could be a response to Vietnam, which has for the last two years reclaimed land and built military facilities on the islets that it controls in the Spratlys.

More important may be that compared with his predecessors, President Trump appears to be less focused on deterring China’s militarization of the South China Sea. “I think there’s a larger question of: Did they think they could get away with it?” Mr. Prétat said.

Antelope Reef is now one of China’s biggest islands in the region, similar in size to its largest outpost on Mischief Reef in the Spratlys.

Vietnam claims the entirety of the Paracels, which have been under Beijing's control since China seized them in 1974. Hanoi has protested China’s construction at Antelope as “completely illegal and invalid."

But Beijing insists that the Paracels are China’s “inherent territory.” Asked about the buildup at Antelope Reef last month, Lin Jian, a spokesman with China’s foreign ministry, said that any construction was simply aimed at “improving living and working conditions on the islands and growing the local economy.”

Translation

中國正在海上打造下一個前哨

過去幾個月，中國一直在越南沿海爭議水域悄悄快速地建造一座人工島，這將有助於北京繼續主導世界上最重要的水道之一。中國聲稱擁有南海約90%的主權，其中包括一些東南亞國家也聲稱擁有主權的部分海域。

早在去年11月，衛星影像就顯示，中國挖泥船正在西沙群島的羚羊礁上建造一座新月形人工島。西沙群島是島嶼和礁石群，中國、台灣和越南三國都聲稱擁有它的主權的。

今年4月，人工島的邊緣已經成型，防波堤、直升機停機坪和未鋪設的道路也清晰可見。這座人工島的面積幾乎是紐約中央公園的兩倍，而且似乎仍在建設中。

分析師指出，鑑於羚羊礁的規模及其持續擴張，它很可能成為中國在該地區最大的軍事前哨之一。這類島嶼通常配備簡易機場、雷達、電子戰設施和飛彈掩體。這些基地為中國海軍和空軍提供支持，幫助它們在遠離中國大陸的地區進行活動。由數千艘民用漁船組成的中國海警和海上民兵（旨在維護北京在該水域的存在）也使用這些基地。

追蹤中國島礁建設活動的分析人士對羚羊礁的新建工程感到驚訝，因為中國已經在爭議水域擁有多個前哨基地，並且基本上停止了此類人工島礁的大規模建設。

戰略與國際研究中心亞洲海事透明倡議 副主任兼研究員Harrison Prétat表示，“其戰略邏輯並不十分明顯” 。他又表示“感覺上，他們似乎不需要其他任何東西了。”

2013年至2017年間，中國在南海建造或擴建了20多個可駐紮軍隊的軍事基地。其中包括在南沙群島（距中國大陸900多英里，但距菲律賓海岸300英里以內）的三個大型軍事基地，以及在西沙群島的一個基地。這場規模和速度都史無前例的島礁建設行動引發了國際社會的譴責，並損害了中國與其東南亞鄰國以及美國的關係。

Prétat先生表示，最新的建設可能是對越南的回應。過去兩年，越南一直在其控制的南沙群島島礁上填海造陸並建造軍事設施。

更重要的是，特朗普總統與他的前任相比，似乎不太關注遏制中國在南海的軍事化。 Prétat先生說: 「我認為更大的問題是：他們是否認為可以瞞天過海嗎？」

羚羊礁如今已成為中國在該地區最大的島嶼之一，面積與中國在南沙群島美濟礁的最大前哨基地相仿。

越南聲稱對整個西沙群島擁有主權，而西沙群島自1974年被中國佔領以來一直處於北京的控制之下。河內方面抗議中國在羚羊礁的建設並稱其「完全非法無效」。

但北京方面堅稱西沙群島是中國的「固有領土」。上個月，當被問及羚羊礁的建設時，中國外交部官員Lin Jian表示，任何建設都只是為了「改善島上居民的生活和工作條件，促進當地經濟發展」。

So, over the last few months, China has been quietly and quickly building an island in disputed waters off the coast of Vietnam that will help Beijing continue to dominate one of the most crucial waterways in the world. It seems that compared with his predecessors, President Trump appears to be less focused on deterring China’s militarization of the South China Sea. Apparently, Trump is busy in dealing matter in Cuba, Ukraine and Iran.

U.S. Navy vessel makes first port call at Cambodian naval base expanded with Chinese support

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

中国の支援で拡張したカンボジア海軍基地に米海軍艦艇が初寄港

2026年1月24日午後10時11分

カンボジア

中国の支援を受けて拡張工事が行われたカンボジアの海軍基地に、24日、アメリカ海軍の艦艇が初めて寄港しました。アメリカとしては、カンボジアとの連携を強化し海洋進出を強める中国をけん制するねらいがあるとみられます。

アメリカ海軍の発表によりますと24日、海軍の艦艇「シンシナティ」が、カンボジア南西部のリアム海軍基地に寄港しました。

リアム海軍基地では、中国の支援を受けて拡張工事が行われ、去年工事が完了しました。

AP通信などによりますとアメリカ海軍の艦艇の寄港は工事が完了して以降、初めてです。

アメリカはこの基地について、支援をした中国に軍事利用されるのではないかとの懸念を示していました。

AFP通信によりますと、アメリカ海軍の艦艇は停泊していた中国軍の艦艇からおよそ150メートル離れたふ頭に停泊したということです。

アメリカ海軍は発表で、今回の寄港について「アメリカとカンボジアの海軍の間で深まる協力関係を示すものだ」としていて、カンボジアとの連携を強化し、海洋進出を強める中国をけん制するねらいがあるとみられます。

Translation

U.S. Navy vessel makes first port call at Cambodian naval base expanded with Chinese support

Cambodia

On the 24th, a U.S. Navy vessel made its first port call at a Cambodian naval base that was expanded with Chinese support. The U.S. appeared to be aiming to strengthen ties with Cambodia and deter China that was strengthening its maritime presence.

According to a U.S. Navy announcement, the Navy ship USS Cincinnati made a port call at Ream Naval Base in southwestern Cambodia on the 24th.

Ream Naval Base underwent expansion with Chinese support, which was completed last year.

According to the Associated Press and other sources, this would be the first port call by a U.S. Navy vessel since its completion.

The U.S. had expressed concern that the base might be used for military purposes by China, which had provided support for the base.

According to AFP, the U.S. Navy vessel docked at a pier approximately 150 meters away from the Chinese military vessels that were anchored there.

While in a statement, the U.S. Navy said the port call "demonstrates the deepening cooperation between the U.S. and Cambodian navies," it was believed that the aim was to strengthen ties with Cambodia and deter China that was strengthening its maritime expansion.

              So, a U.S. Navy vessel made its first port call at a Cambodian naval base that was expanded with Chinese support. It appears that the U.S. is aiming to strengthen ties with Cambodia and deterring China. It is interesting to note that Cambodia is willing to open this port to the US.

在越南宣布領土主張後，中國在北部灣舉行實彈演習

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China holds live-fire exercises in Gulf of Tonkin after Vietnam marks its territorial claims

DAVID RISING

Mon, February 24, 2025 at 2:56 a.m. PST·2 min read

BANGKOK (AP) — Chinese authorities said they began live-fire exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin on Monday, only days after Vietnam announced a new line marking what it considers its territory in the body of water between the two countries.

China's Maritime Safety Administration said the exercises would be focused on the Beibu Gulf area, closer to the Chinese side of the Gulf of Tonkin, and would run through Thursday evening.

It gave no further details, but the drills follow an announcement last week by Vietnam establishing a baseline used to calculate the width of its territorial waters in the Gulf of Tonkin.

State-run Vietnam News reported that the baseline was in compliance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and would provide "a robust legal basis for safeguarding and exercising Vietnam’s sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction."

Vietnam has not publicly responded to the Chinese drills.

China and Vietnam have long had a maritime agreement governing the Gulf of Tonkin, but have been locked in competing claims in the nearby South China Sea over the Spratly and Paracel Islands and maritime areas.

China has been growing aggressive in pursuing those claims, and in October assaulted 10 Vietnamese fishermen near the Paracel Islands, three of whom suffered broken limbs.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea as its own, though it has not publicly released exact coordinates of its claim other than a map with 10 dashed lines broadly demarcating what it calls its territory.

In addition to Vietnam, China's claims overlap with those of the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan, while Indonesia has also figured in violent confrontations with the Chinese coast guard and fishing fleets in the waters around the Natuna Islands.

Tensions have been particularly high with the Philippines, with regular confrontations between the two countries.

Most recently, a Chinese navy helicopter flew within 10 feet (3 meters) of a Philippine patrol plane last week over the South China Sea, near the hotly disputed Scarborough Shoal off the northwestern Philippines.

Leaders in Australia and New Zealand also said China should have given more warning before its navy conducted an unusual series of live-fire exercises in the seas between the two countries, forcing flights on Friday and Saturday to divert on short notice.

Political leaders from both countries emphasized that China didn’t breach international law, but said they had only been given “a couple hours notice” rather than the usual 12 to 24 hours.

Translation

在越南宣布領土主張後，中國在北部灣舉行實彈演習

（美聯社） - 中國當局表示，他們於週一開始在北部灣舉行實彈演習，而就在幾天前，越南宣布了一條新的分界線，在兩國之間水域標示了認為是它的領土。

中國海事局表示，演習將集中在北部灣海域，靠近北部灣中國一側，演習將持續到週四晚間。

越南沒有透露更多細節，但這次演習是在越南上周宣布劃定其用於計算其北部灣領海寬度的基線之後進行的。

國營媒體《越南新聞》報道稱，該基線符合《聯合國海洋法公約》，並將提供為「維護和行使越南主權、主權的權利, 和管轄權的堅實法律基礎」。

越南尚未公開回應中國的演習。

中國和越南長期以來一直就北部灣管理達成海洋協議，但在附近的南海，兩國對南沙群島、西沙群島及海域有主權爭議。

中國在追求南海主權主張問題上愈發激進，並於10月在西沙群島附近襲擊了10名越南漁民，其中三人受骨折損傷。

中國聲稱對幾乎整個南海擁有主權，但除了一張以 10 條虛線大致劃定其領土範圍的地圖外，並未公開發布其主張的確切座標。

除越南外，中國的主權主張也與菲律賓、馬來西亞、汶萊和台灣的主權主張重疊，而印尼也在Natuna 群島附近海域與中國海警和漁船隊發生激烈衝突。

中菲關係尤其緊張，兩國經常發生衝突。

最近，一架中國海軍直升機上週在南海上空飛行，距離菲律賓巡邏機不到 10 英尺（3 公尺），該海域靠近菲律賓西北部有激烈爭議的黃岩島。

澳洲和紐西蘭領導人也表示，中國海軍在兩國間海域舉行一系列不同尋常的實彈演習，導致周五和周六的航班被迫臨時改道，認為在演習前中國應給予更多警告。

兩國政治領袖都強調中國沒有違反國際法，但表示他們只收到了 “幾個小時的通知”，而不是通常的12到24小時。

       So, Chinese authorities begin live-fire exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin only days after Vietnam announces a new line marking what it considers its territory in the body of water between the two countries. China has been growing aggressive in pursuing sovereignty claims in the past few months towards Vietnam. Apparently, the confrontation is escalating.

澳洲和紐西蘭軍方正在監視澳洲附近的 3 艘中國軍艦 (2/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The Australian and New Zealand militaries are monitoring 3 Chinese warships off Australia (2/2)

The Associated Press - Rod Mcguirk

Wed, February 19, 2025 at 9:31 p.m. PST·4 min read

(continue)

New Zealand’s military was also monitoring the Chinese ships by sea and air “in coordination with Australia,” New Zealand Defense Minister Judith Collins said in a statement.

“We have not been informed by the Chinese government why this task group has been deployed into our region, and we have not been informed what its future plans are,” she added. “We will continue to monitor these vessels.”

 Experts says China's navy is projecting power around the world

Jennifer Parker, an expert associate of Australia’s National Security College and a former Australian naval officer, said Chinese warships rarely traveled so far south along the nation’s east coast.

“This is part of a broader power projection from the PLA-Navy and we should expect to see more of this in the Pacific and in the Indian Ocean,” Parker said.

The Chinese deployment comes as the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Adm. Samuel Paparo visits Australia this week.

Parker said the timing was likely coincidental given the Chinese deployment would have been planned well in advance and the United States doesn’t release information about their senior officers’ travel until close to the visit.

“Without knowing exactly where the ships are going, the point of this deployment, I think, is to demonstrate to Australia that they have the capability to come down and operate in our maritime domain,” Parker said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told a news conference he was not worried by reports of Chinese warships off Sydney.

“The Chinese naval ships are complying with international law, but as we do, we are monitoring the situation and observing what is going on, as you would expect,” Albanese said.

Relations between the Chinese and Australian militaries remain dangerous

Three Chinese warships visited Sydney Harbor in 2019. But their voyage had been approved by the Australian government.

Australia’s diplomatic and trade relations with China have improved in recent years, but relations between the two militaries are dangerous.

Australia protested what it described as an unsafe interaction last week over the South China Sea where a Chinese fighter is accused of releasing flares that endangered an Australian military surveillance plane.

Guo, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, accused the Australian aircraft of “deliberately” intruding into airspace over the disputed Paracel Islands, which China claims.

Translation

澳洲和紐西蘭軍方正在監視澳洲附近的 3 艘中國軍艦 (2/2)

（繼續）

 新西蘭國防部長 Judith Collins 在一份聲明中表示，新西蘭軍方還 “與澳大利亞協調” ，在海上和空中監視中國船隻。

她補充說： “中國政府沒有告知我們為何要派遣這個特遣組到我們這個地區，也沒有告知我們其未來的計劃”; “我們將繼續監視這些船隻。”

專家稱中國海軍正在向世界各地投射力量

澳洲國家安全學院專家助理、前澳洲海軍軍官 Jennifer Parker 表示，中國軍艦很少沿著該國東海岸向南航行這麼遠。

Parker說： “這是解放軍海軍更廣泛力量投射的一部分，我們應該會在太平洋和印度洋看到更多這樣的行動。”

中國這軍力部署，正值本週美國印度太平洋司令部司令 Samuel Paparo 海軍上將訪問澳大利亞，。

Parker表示，鑑於中國的部署早已提前計劃好，而美國直到訪問前夕才公佈其高級軍官的行程信息，因此時間安排很可能只是巧合。

Parker 說： “在不知道這些艦艇具體要去哪裡的情況下，我認為，這次部署的目的是向澳大利亞證明，他們有能力在我們的海域進行作業。”

總理 Anthony Albanese 在記者會上表示，他並不擔心有關中國軍艦出現在雪梨附近的報導。

Albanese 說： “中國海軍艦艇遵守國際法，但正如我們所做的，我們也在監視局勢，觀察事態的發展, 與你預料那樣。”

中澳兩軍關係依然危險

三艘中國軍艦2019年訪問了悉尼港。但他們的航行獲得澳洲政府的批准。

近年來，澳洲與中國的外交和貿易關係有所改善，但兩國軍事關係卻很危險。

澳洲對上週在南海上發生的不安全互動表示抗議，當時一架中國戰機被指控發射照明彈，危及一架澳洲軍用偵察機的安全。

中國外交部發言人 Guo 指責澳洲飛機「故意」侵入中國聲稱擁有主權的西沙群島領空。

So, the Australian and New Zealand militaries were monitoring three Chinese warships moving unusually far south along Australia’s east coast on an unknown mission. They say that they will make a full assessment of what the Chinese were seeking to achieve in this mission eventually. I am also interested in knowing what the Chinese navy was aiming at.

印度海軍潛艇與軍艦下水 防範中國在印度洋的出現

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

India's navy launches submarine, warships to guard against China's presence in Indian Ocean

Rafiq Maqbool And Ashok Sharma

Wed, January 15, 2025 at 2:04 a.m. PST·2 min read

The Associated Press

MUMBAI, India (AP) — India's navy on Wednesday simultaneously launched a submarine, a destroyer and a frigate built at a state-run shipyard, underscoring the importance of protecting the Indian Ocean region through which 95% of the country's trade moves amid a strong Chinese presence.

Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said that the Atlantic Ocean’s importance has shifted to the Indian Ocean region, which is becoming a center of international power rivalry.

“India is giving the biggest importance to making its navy powerful to protect its interests,” he said.

“The commissioning of three major naval combatants marks a significant leap forward in realizing India’s vision of becoming a global leader in defense manufacturing and maritime security,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said while commissioning the vessels at the state-run Mazagon dockyard in Mumbai.

The situation in the Indian Ocean region is challenging with the Chinese navy, India’s main rival, growing exponentially, said Rahul Bedi, a defense analyst.

Bedi said that the INS Vagsheer submarine, the sixth among a French license-built Kalvari (Scorpene)-class conventional diesel-electric submarines, is aimed at replacing aging Indian underwater platforms and plugging serious capability gaps in existing ones. India now has a total of 16 submarines.

The P75 Scorpene submarine project represents India’s growing expertise in submarine construction in collaboration with the Naval Group of France, Bedi said.

India’s defense ministry is expected to conclude a deal for three additional Scorpene submarines to be built in India during Modi’s likely visit to Paris next month to attend the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron.

However, the first of these boats, according to the Indian navy, is only likely to be commissioned by 2031.

India commissioned its first home-built aircraft carrier in 2022 to counter regional rival China’s much more extensive and growing fleet and expand its indigenous shipbuilding capabilities.

The INS Vikrant, whose name is a Sanskrit word for “powerful” or “courageous,” is India’s second operational aircraft carrier. It joins the Soviet-era INS Vikramaditya, which India purchased from Russia in 2004 to defend the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal.

Translation

印度海軍潛艇與軍艦下水 防範中國在印度洋的出現

印度孟買（美聯社）—印度海軍週三同時有一艘潛艇、一艘驅逐艦和一艘護衛艦下水了，這些艦艇均由一家國營造船廠建造。印度95% 的貿易活動都透過印度洋地區進行。在中國強勢出現的背景下，這凸顯了保護該地區地區的重要性。

國防部長拉傑納特辛格表示，大西洋的重要性已經轉移到印度洋地區，該地區正在成為國際力量競爭的中心。

他說：“印度非常重視增強海軍實力以保護本國利益。”

印度總理莫迪在孟買國營馬扎岡造船廠為這些艦艇舉行服役儀式時表示：「三艘主要海軍戰艦的服役標誌著印度在實現成為國防製造業和海上安全全球領導者的願景方面邁出了重大一步。

國防分析師Rahul Bedi表示，印度洋地區的局勢充滿挑戰，印度的主要對手中國海軍實力正在呈指數級增長。

Bedi表示，INS Vagsheer號潛艇是法國授權製造的卡爾瓦里（Scorpene) 級常規柴電潛艇中的第六艘，旨在取代老化的印度水下領域平台，並填補現有平台在能力方面的嚴重缺口。印度目前共擁有16艘潛艇。

Bedi表示，P75 Scorpene潛艇計劃代表了在印度與法國海軍集團合作下, 在潛艇建造方面的專業知識日益增強。

印度國防部預計將在莫迪下個月訪問巴黎參加法國總統馬克龍主持的人工智慧行動高峰會期間，簽署在印度建造另外三艘「Scorpene」級潛艇的協議。

然而，據印度海軍稱，第一艘潛艇可能要到2031年才能服役。

印度於 2022 年有第一艘國產航空母艦服役，以對抗其地區競爭對手中國的更大規模且不斷增長的艦隊，並擴大印度本土造船能力。

INS Vikrant是印度第二艘現役使用的航空母艦，名字在梵語中意為「強大」或「勇敢」。它與從前蘇聯於 2004年購入的 “維克拉瑪蒂亞” 號航空母艦一起，保衛印度洋和孟加拉灣。

              So, India's navy has simultaneously launched a submarine, a destroyer and a frigate built at a state-run shipyard. Furthermore, India’s defense ministry is expected to conclude a deal for three additional submarines to be built in India with the help from French. Apparently, India is beefing up its navy to counter the presence of China in the region.

越南舉辦軍火展尋求促進國內國防工業

Recent Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Vietnam seeks to boost domestic defence industry as it hosts arms fair

Tue, December 17, 2024 at 6:58 p.m. PST·2 min read

By Francesco Guarascio and Khanh Vu

HANOI (Reuters) - Vietnam will showcase locally made weapons at an international arms fair in Hanoi on Thursday, as it seeks to boost its domestic industry and possibly export military equipment.

Among the nearly 250 exhibitors will be top defence companies, including from the United States, Europe, Turkey and countries at war with each other, such as Israel, Iran, Russia and Ukraine.

The Southeast Asian nation is a major importer of weapons, especially from Russia, having invested for years in its defence capabilities in an unstable region where it has clashed with China over boundaries in the South China Sea.

But recently it has also bolstered its domestic defence industry and promoting exports of military products is now a priority, defence ministry officials have repeatedly said.

State-owned defence firm Viettel and other local companies will showcase missile defence systems, drones, air defence radars, armoured vehicles and artillery, according to defence ministry media.

Some of these weapons will be displayed for the first time, said Nguyen The Phuong, an expert on Vietnam security at Australia's University of New South Wales.

He noted a key strategy to strengthen the local industry had been the signing of deals with foreign arms exporters to have some of their components produced in Vietnam.

Talks with South Korean companies were underway for possible new deals under those conditions, especially for artillery and aviation, he said.

Similar talks had also been held with companies from other countries, including the Czech Republic, officials said.

RIVALS' GEAR ON DISPLAY

At the expo, Iran's defence ministry will have an entire pavilion, not far from the booths of Israel's defence firms Israel Aerospace Industries and Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.

The fair will also host a dozen booths of Russian firms and one for Ukraine's Motor Sich, an aircraft engine manufacturer.

A dozen Turkish defence companies, including Aselsan, Turkish Aerospace Industries and Roketsan, are among listed participants, making Turkey's one of the largest delegations.

China's Norinco will be one of two Chinese exhibitors, in a first for a Vietnamese defence fair.

U.S. defence giants Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Textron Aviation Defense will also have their booths at the fair.

They have all been involved in talks with Vietnamese authorities for the sale of helicopters. Lockheed is also discussing a possible deal on C-130 Hercules military transport planes, sources had told Reuters.

Brazil's Embraer said it will exhibit its C-390 Millennium plane - a rival to the C-130.

Top European defence firms will also attend, including aerospace giant Airbus, Britain's BAE Systems, Germany's Rheinmetall, Italy's Leonardo and France's Thales Group.

Translation:

越南舉辦軍火展尋求促進國內國防工業

河內（路透社） - 越南將於週四在河內舉行的國際軍火博覽會上展示本地製造的武器，以促進其國內工業並可能出口軍事裝備。

近250家參展商包括來自美國、歐洲、土耳其以及以色列、伊朗、俄羅斯和烏克蘭等交戰國家的頂級防務公司。

這個東南亞國家是武器進口國，尤其是來自俄羅斯的武器進口國，多年來一直在一個不穩定地區投資建立其防禦能力，它曾在該地區與中國因南海邊界問題發生衝突。

但國防部官員一再表示，最近它也加強了國內國防工業，促進軍品出口已成為當務之急。

根據國防部媒體報道，國有防務公司 Viettel 和其他當地公司將展示飛彈防禦系統、無人機、防空雷達、裝甲車和火砲。

澳洲新南威爾斯大學越南安全專家 Nguyen The Phuong 表示，其中一些武器將是首次展出。

他指出，加強當地工業的一項關鍵策略是與外國武器出口商簽署協議，讓其部分零件在越南生產。

他說，正在與韓國公司進行談判，以探討在這種情況下可能達成的新交易，特別是在火砲和航空領域。

官員表示，也與包括捷克共和國在內的其他國家的公司進行了類似的會談。

競爭的對手展示裝備

在博覽會上，伊朗國防部將擁有整個展館，距離以色列國防公司以色列航空航太工業公司和拉斐爾先進防禦系統公司的展位不遠。

展會還將設立十幾個俄羅斯公司的展位和烏克蘭飛機發動機製造商Motor Sich的一個展位。

包括 Aselsan、土耳其航空航太工業公司和 Roketsan 在內的十幾家土耳其國防公司均在參與者名單之列，這使得土耳其成為最大的代表團之一。

中國北方工業公司將成為兩家中國參展商之一，這是首次參加越南防務展。

美國國防巨頭洛克希德·馬丁公司、波音公司和德事隆航空防務公司也將在展會上設立展位。

他們都參與了與越南當局就出售直升機事宜進行的談判。消息人士告訴路透社，洛克希德馬丁公司還有一個有關可能交易 C-130 Hercules 軍用運輸機的討論。

巴西的Embraer表示將展出其 C-390 Millennium 飛機 - 是C-130 的競爭對手。

歐洲頂級防務公司也將参與，包括航空航太巨頭空中巴士公司、英國BAE系統公司、德國的Rheinmetall、義大利的Leonardo和法國的Thales Group。

So, Vietnam will showcase locally made weapons at an international arms fair as it seeks to boost its domestic industry and possibly export military equipment. It admits that promoting exports of military products is now its priority. The recent conflicts in the middle east and in Ukraine show that military equipment is in high demand and has a good market globally.

印尼請一艘中國船隻立即離開：南海油氣爭端升級

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Indonesia sent a Chinese ship packing, escalating a fight over oil and gas in the South China Sea

Business Insider -Thibault Spirlet

Thu, October 24, 2024 at 11:10 p.m. GMT+8·3 min read

Indonesia said it deployed two vessels and an aircraft to expel a Chinese ship from contested waters in the South China Sea.

The Indonesian National Armed Forces said its Maritime Security Agency's command and control center detected China's coast guard ship at the southern edge of the South China Sea, on Monday.

It said the Chinese ship disrupted survey work — often used to help locate oil and gas reserves beneath the seabed — by Indonesia's state-owned oil and natural gas company PT Pertamina.

The interaction is another turn in a yearslong dispute over who owns the South China Sea, and gets to exploit its resources.

China has staked out an aggressive claim to almost the whole sea, which its neighbors and most Western countries reject.

The rival claims have been playing out in often-violent encounters between Chinese and other ships.

In Monday's run-in, Indonesia said it dispatched a patrol ship dispatched to warn the Chinese ship away via radio.

It said the ship insisted the waters were Chinese, prompting Indonesia to send a navy ship and an aircraft to the area.

"Together, the two Indonesian patrol ships carried out shadowing and succeeded in driving the CCG 5402 ship out of Indonesia's jurisdiction," it said.

Shadowing means following another ship from a distance, a way of pressuring a rival vessel without direct confrontation.

Indonesia's Maritime Security Agency shared aerial footage of the operation on Wednesday, which it said showed the incident.

Neither side immediately responded to requests for comment from Business Insider. As of early Thursday, China had yet to issue any public statement on the encounter.

The incident escalates the dispute over the South China Sea, and highlights the richness of its resources.

It is home to an estimated 3.6 billion barrels of oil and other liquids and 40.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

China's claims overlap with neighboring countries, including Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

An encounter in June between the Philippines and China turned violent, escalating into a physical fight involving bare fists, knives, and swords.

The US Navy has made a point of operating in the South China Sea, sailing in areas it regards as international waters.

Malaysia and Vietnam are also pursuing oil-and-gas projects in the South China Sea, and running into Chinese opposition.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative assessed in March that the China Coast Guard in 2023 patrolled near Vietnam's Vanguard Bank oil and gas operations for 221 days and near a major cluster of Malaysian oil and gas operations for 338 days.

The encounters so far have stopped short of a true naval confrontation, which risks escalating into a devastating war.

A conflict in the South China Sea — a critical trade route estimated to carry one-third of global shipping — could result in a 10-33% loss in GDP for Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, according to a 2020 working paper by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.

Translation

印尼請一艘中國船隻立即離開：南海油氣爭端升級

印尼表示，它部署了兩艘船隻和一架飛機，將一艘中國船隻驅逐出南海有爭議的水域。

印尼國家武裝部隊表示，其海事安全局指揮和控制中心週一在南海南部邊緣發現了中國海警船。

據稱，中國船隻擾亂了印尼國有石油和天然氣公司 PT Pertamina 的勘測工作，該工作通常用於幫助確定海底下的石油和天然氣儲量。

這次互動是圍繞著誰擁有南海並開發其資源的長達多年的爭端的又一個轉折時機。

中國對幾乎整個海域提出了氣勢洶洶的主權主張，但遭到鄰國和大多數西方國家的拒絕。

中國與其他船隻之間經常發生暴力衝突，對抗的主張也不斷發生。

在周一的爭論中，印尼表示，它派出了一艘巡邏船，並通過無線電警告中國船隻離開。

據稱，該船堅稱該海域屬於中國海域，導致印尼派遣一艘海軍艦艇和一架飛機前往該地區。

它說: 「印尼兩艘巡邏船共同進行追隨行動，成功將CCG 5402船驅離印尼管轄範圍」。

進行追隨意味著從遠處跟隨另一艘船，這是一種在不直接對抗的情況下向對手船隻施加壓力的方式。

印尼海事安全局週三分享了此次行動的航拍片，稱該片顯示了這一事件。

雙方均未立即回應《商業內幕》的置評請求。截至週四早些時候，中國尚未就這次遭遇發表任何公開聲明。

這事件加劇了南海爭端，凸顯了南海資源的豐富性。

據估計，這裡蘊藏著 36 億桶石油和其他液體以及 40.3 兆立方英尺天然氣。

中國的主權主張與數個鄰國重疊，包括印尼、台灣、越南、汶萊、馬來西亞和菲律賓。

六月，菲律賓和中國之間的衝突升級為赤手空拳、刀劍的肢體衝突。

美國海軍已在南海開展了行動要點，在其視為國際水域的地區航行。

馬來西亞和越南也在南海推展石油和天然氣項目，但遭到了中國的異議。

戰略與國際研究中心的Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative 的3月份評估稱，中國海警於2023年在越南Vanguard Bank 油氣作業區附近巡邏了221天，又在馬來西亞一個主要的油氣作業集群區附近巡邏了338天。

到目前為止，這些相遇還沒有達到真正的海上對抗，對抗有可能升級為一場破壞性的戰爭。

根據美國國家經濟研究局2020年的一份工作論文，南海的衝突可能導致台灣、新加坡、香港、越南、菲律賓同馬來西亞的10% 到33%GDP損失，南海係一條重要的貿易路線，估計承載住全球三分一的航運。

              So, Indonesia has deployed two vessels and an aircraft to expel a Chinese ship from the contested waters in the South China Sea. AMTI assesses that the China Coast Guard in 2023 had frequently patrolled the area near Vietnam's Vanguard Bank oil and gas operations, and also near a major cluster of Malaysian oil and gas operations. Apparently, the present dispute over the South China Sea highlights the richness of its resources in the area.

Note:

1.   Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) was conceived of and designed by CSIS. It is an interactive, regularly-updated source for information, analysis, and policy exchange on maritime security issues in Asia. AMTI aims to promote transparency in the Indo-Pacific to dissuade assertive behavior and conflict and generate opportunities for cooperation and confidence building. (https://amti.csis.org/about/)

2. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is an American think tank based in Washington, D.C. The center conducts policy studies and strategic analyses of political, economic and security issues throughout the world, with a focus on issues concerning international relations, trade, technology, finance, energy and geostrategy. (Wikipedia)

馬來西亞總理表示，儘管中國抗議，不會停止南海勘探

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Malaysia will not stop South China Sea exploration despite China protests, PM says

Reuters

Wed, September 4, 2024 at 10:04 p.m. PDT·2 min read

(Reuters) - Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Thursday the country will not stop its oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea despite claims by Beijing that Malaysia was infringing on its territory.

Anwar, speaking from Russia where he is on an official trip, said Malaysia's exploration activities were within its territory and were not intended to be provocative or hostile towards China, with whom it has friendly relations.

"Of course, we will have to operate in our waters and secure economic advantage, including drilling for oil, in our territory," Anwar said in a televised press conference in Vladivostok.

"We have never denied the possibility of discussion (with China). But it doesn't mean we have to stop the operation in our area."

Malaysia's foreign ministry said on Wednesday it would investigate the leak of a classified diplomatic note from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

In the note, which was carried by a Philippine news outlet, Beijing asserted that Malaysia's oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea breached its territory.

China claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, including parts of the 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam, complicating energy exploration efforts by several of those countries.

Under international law, an EEZ does not denote sovereignty, but grants a country sovereign rights to extract natural resources from those waters.

Malaysian state energy firm Petronas, or Petroliam Nasional Berhad, operates oil and gas fields in the South China Sea within Malaysia's EEZ and has in recent years had several encounters with Chinese vessels.

Anwar said China has sent "one or two" protest notes to stop Malaysia's oil exploration activities, without specifying details, but stressed that the government would continue to explain to Beijing its position.

"We have said that we will not transgress other people's borders. That is our stringent policy and principles," he said.

"They know our position.... They have claimed that we are infringing on their territory. That is not the case. We say no, it is our territory."

"But if they continue with the dispute, then okay, we will have to listen, and they will have to listen."

An international arbitration tribunal in The Hague in 2016 ruled China's claim to about 90% of the South China Sea, made via a U-shaped "nine-dash line" on its maps, had no basis under international law, a decision Beijing does not recognise.

(Reporting by Rozanna Latiff and Danial Azhar in Kuala Lumpur; Editing by John Mair, Martin Petty)

Translation

（路透社） - 馬來西亞總理安華週四表示，儘管北京聲稱馬來西亞侵犯了其領土，但該國不會停止在南中國海的石油和天然氣勘探。

安華在俄羅斯進行正式訪問時表示，馬來西亞的勘探活動是在其領土內進行的，無意挑釁或敵視關係友好的中國。

安華在海參崴舉行的電視新聞發布會上表示：“當然，我們必須在我們的水域開展業務並確保經濟優勢，包括在我們的領土上鑽探石油。”

「我們從未否認（與中國）進行討論的可能性。但這並不意味著我們必須停止在我們地區的行動」。

馬來西亞外交部週三表示，將調查一份來自中國外交部機密外交照會被外洩的事件。

在菲律賓一家新聞媒體刊登的這份照會中，北京聲稱馬來西亞在南海的石油和天然氣勘探侵犯了其領土。

中國聲稱對幾乎整個南海擁有主權，其中包括菲律賓、汶萊、馬來西亞、台灣和越南的部分200海裡專屬經濟區（EEZ），這使得其中幾個國家的能源勘探工作變得更加複雜。

根據國際法，專屬經濟區並不代表主權，而是授予一個國家從這些水域開採自然資源的主權權利。

馬來西亞國家能源公司Petronas即馬來西亞國家石油公司（Petroliam Nasional Berhad）在馬來西亞專屬經濟區內的南中國海營運油氣田，近年來與中國船隻發生了數次相遇。

安華表示，中國已發出「一至兩份」抗議照會，要求馬來西亞停止石油勘探活動，但沒有具體說明細節，但強調政府將繼續向北京解釋其立場。

他說「我們說過，我們不會越過別人的邊界。這是我們嚴格的政策和原則」。

“他們知道我們的立場……他們聲稱我們侵犯了他們的領土。事實並非如此。我們說不，這是我們的領土。”

“但如果他們繼續爭論，那麼好吧，我們將需要傾聽，他們也將需要傾聽。”

2016 年，海牙的一個國際仲裁庭裁定，中國透過地圖上 U 形「九段線」提出的對南海約 90% 海域的主權主張沒有國際法依據，但北京並未承認這一仲裁決定。

So, Malaysia says that the country will not stop its oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea despite claims by Beijing that Malaysia is infringing on China’s territory. The crux of the dispute is that an international arbitration tribunal in 2016 has already ruled that China's claim to about 90% of the South China Sea has no legal basis. Beijing does not recognize this tribunal decision.

南海：為何北京對越南採取低調態度，但對菲律賓卻不然 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

South China Sea: why Beijing takes a low-key approach to Vietnam but not the Philippines (2/2)

South China Morning Post - Alyssa Chen

Tue, September 3, 2024 at 2:30 a.m. PDT·8 min read

(continue)

According to an associate professor in Guangzhou, who specialises in the South China Sea and asked to remain anonymous, Manila's closeness to the US, the "collective effort to intimidate China" and its willingness to support Washington's stance on Taiwan was "intolerable" to Beijing.

Beijing views Taiwan as part of its territory that must be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.

Most countries, including the US and Philippines, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington opposes any attempt to take the island by force and is legally bound to arm the island to help it defend itself.

The academic said Beijing now felt forced to leverage the South China Sea dispute to put pressure on Manila. 

"Unlike other nations that engage frequently in joint military exercises with forces outside the region, Vietnam has been notably restrained in colluding with extra-regional powers," the associate professor added.

Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said Beijing may want to discourage other South China Sea claimants from following the Philippine lead.

"[China] feels that pushing back hard against the Marcos government is useful to teach other countries a lesson about aligning too closely with the US," he said.

Harrison Pretat, a maritime affairs expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: "It is likely that some amount of the pressure Beijing has applied to Manila's maritime activities has been an attempt to test US-Philippine unity and raise doubts in the Philippines about the usefulness of the alliance."

But he also said that it may be worried that taking a tough approach to the Philippines and Vietnam at the same time could "strain its resources and amount to an untenable level of risk".

Pham, from the South China Sea Chronicle Initiative, said: "Missteps in exerting pressure on Vietnam will only drive Vietnam closer to the US and other regional powers, complicating China's strategic calculations in the South China Sea."

Pretat also said Vietnam "prefers to manage maritime tensions with Beijing quietly and is unlikely to follow in Manila's footsteps", adding that the Philippines has tried to "internationalise" the dispute.

In 2016 it took a case to an international tribunal in The Hague, which rejected Beijing's claims over the waterway, and it is now considering another lawsuit alleging that China has caused environmental damage in the waterway.

China refused to take part in the 2016 hearings and has never accepted the findings.

Ding Duo, from the National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan, said Manila tended to "escalate the issue as much as possible" but "high-level officials and leaders in Vietnam rarely talk about the dispute internationally or point their fingers at China".

But Zhu Feng, executive dean of Nanjing University's school of international studies, said the "potential threats posed by Vietnam's island-building have not been completely eliminated".

Zhu added: "Such activities could become a new flashpoint in the bilateral relationship if there is a substantial change or escalation."

According to Ding, Beijing's different approach towards the two countries stemmed from the fact that Vietnam was building "on features it has controlled since the 1970s and 1980s, while Beijing views Manila's efforts as an attempt to take over previously uninhabited features or those under Chinese control, such as Scarborough Shoal".

Ding said Beijing may think Manila's actions were "unacceptable" and not in line with the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.

This non-binding guideline signed by China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2002 says countries should not establish a presence on uninhabited islands or reefs and should exercise self-restraint.

In 2013 China embarked on a major island-building programme of its own in the Spratly Islands, and also built up both civilian and military infrastructure in the South China Sea, including runways, radar stations and accommodation for troops.

All this construction happened on features that Beijing already controlled and state media has defended its actions as "lawful and justified".

Pham said the key to China's approach was "divide and rule tactics" because it wanted to forestall any collective resistance among claimant states to maintain its dominance in the South China Sea.

However, Cooper warned, tough measures from Beijing could not be ruled out in the future, "if more substantial military forces start being deployed more regularly to those [Vietnamese] features".

Translation

（繼續）

廣州一位專門研究南海問題、要求匿名的副教授表示，馬尼拉與美國的親密關係、「集體恐嚇中國」以及支持華盛頓在台灣問題上立場的意願，對北京來說是「無法容忍的」 。

北京將台灣視為其領土的一部分，必須與大陸重新統一，必要時可以使用武力。

包括美國和菲律賓在內的大多數國家都不承認台灣是一個獨立國家，但華盛頓反對任何以武力奪取台灣島的企圖，並有法律義務武裝台灣島以幫助其自衛。

這位學者表示，北京現在感到被迫利用南海爭端向馬尼拉施加壓力。

這位副教授補充說：“越南與其他經常與域外勢力進行聯合軍事演習的國家不同，越南在與域外大國勾結方面明顯有自我約制。”

美國企業研究所高級研究員Zack Cooper表示，北京可能希望阻止其他南海聲索國效仿菲律賓的做法。

他說：“（中國）認為，強力反擊馬可斯政府有助於給其他國家一個關於與美國過於密切結盟的教訓。”

戰略與國際研究中心海事專家Harrison Pretat表示：「北京對馬尼拉海事活動施加一定程度的壓力，很可能是為了考驗美菲團結，並引發對菲律賓對該聯盟的有用性的懷疑」。

但他也表示，北京可能擔心同時對菲律賓和越南採取強硬態度可能會「導致其資源緊張並導致難以承受的風險」。

南海紀事倡議組織的Pham表示：“對越南施加壓力如產生失誤只會讓越南與美國和其他地區大國走得更近，使中國在南海的戰略算盤變得更加複雜。”

Pretat還表示，越南 “更願意悄悄地處理與北京的海上緊張局勢，不太可能步馬尼拉的後塵” ，並補充說菲律賓已試圖將爭端 “國際化” 。

2016年，菲律賓向海牙國際法庭提起訴訟，該法庭駁回了北京對這條航道的主張，目前正在考慮提起另一起訴訟，指控中國對該航道造成了環境破壞。

中國拒絕參加2016年的聽證會，也從未接受調查結果。

海南南海研究院的Ding Duo表示，馬尼拉傾向於“盡可能升級問題”，但“越南高層和領導人很少在國際上談論這一爭端，也很少將矛頭指向中國” 。

但南京大學國際關係學院執行院長Zhu Feng表示，「越南造島造成的潛在威脅尚未完全消除」。

Zhu補充說： “如果出現實質性變化或升級，此類活動可能成為雙邊關係新的爆發點。”

Ding表示，北京對兩國的不同態度源於這樣一個事實：越南只在「自1970年代和1980年代以來在其控制的地物上進行建設，而北京則認為馬尼拉的努力是試圖接管以前無人居住或在中國控制下的地物，例如黃岩島」。

Ding表示，北京可能認為馬尼拉的行為 “不可接受” ，不符合《南海各方行為宣言》。

中國和東南亞國家聯盟於2002年簽署的這份不具約束力的準則稱，各國不應在無人島礁上存在，並應實行自我克制。

2013年，中國在南沙群島啟動了自己的大型島嶼建設計劃，還在南海建設了民用和軍事基礎設施，包括跑道、雷達站和部隊住所。

所有這些依地貎建設都發生在北京已經控制的地區，官方媒體辯稱其行為「合法合理」。

Pham表示，中國做法的關鍵是「分而治之」的策略，因為它希望阻止聲索國之間為維持其在南海的主導地位而進行集體抵抗。

然而，Cooper警告說，“如果更多的軍事力量開始更並頻繁地部署到這些（越南）地物上”，未來不排除北京採取強硬措施的可能性。

So, this article looks at the differences in China's response to its maritime disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam. China's response to Vietnam's rapid expansion of its land reclamation in the Spratly Islands has been muted so far - a stark contrast to Beijing's increasingly assertive response to the Philippines. It is interesting to note that in 2016 the Philippines took this maritime dispute to an international tribunal which rejected Beijing's claims over the waterway. China refuses to take part in this  hearing and has never accepted the tribunal’s findings.

南海：為何北京對越南採取低調態度，但對菲律賓卻不然 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

South China Sea: why Beijing takes a low-key approach to Vietnam but not the Philippines (1/2)

South China Morning Post - Alyssa Chen

Tue, September 3, 2024 at 2:30 a.m. PDT·8 min read

 

The South China Sea is claimed by almost every country in the region but its ripple effects are felt well beyond the fiercely contested waterway. In the first of a three-part series, Alyssa Chen looks at the differences in China's response to its maritime disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam.

China's response to Vietnam's rapid expansion of its land reclamation in the Spratly Islands has been muted so far - a stark contrast to Beijing's increasingly assertive response to the Philippines.

While there have been several clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels around disputed South China Sea reefs in recent months, there are no recorded instances of Beijing trying to stop Vietnam's activities.

Analysts said the different approaches were down to a number of factors, including the political relationship between China and Vietnam, the latter's low-key approach and the alliance between the Philippines and the United States.

But they did not rule out a tougher approach from Beijing in the future and said the issue could still cause problems.

Satellite images published by the Washington-based Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies have shown the unprecedented pace and scale of the land reclamation efforts around the islands and reefs Vietnam controls since 2021.

In May the Beijing-based Grandview Institution published an assessment of the US satellite images, saying that, as of November last year, Vietnam had added "3 sq km (1.2 sq miles) of new land, far exceeding the total construction scale over the previous 40 years".

In June, the US think tank said Vietnam was "on pace for a record year of island building in 2024", calculating that its land holdings covered seven times the area they did three years ago.

Beijing is certainly concerned by Hanoi's actions - which mirror its own decade-long drive to build artificial reefs and facilities in the areas it controls - and it has periodically issued threats to its Vietnamese partners, according to Isaac Kardon, a senior fellow for China studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

However, their growing closeness on security matters has "downgraded the issue in their bilateral diplomacy".

"China is pursuing a different type of bilateral relationship with its southern neighbour characterised by increasingly close [Communist] party-to-party ties and mutual commitment to keep their maritime disputes from displacing their wider cooperation," Kardon added.

Last month, during the visit to China by Vietnam's new leader To Lam, the two sides agreed to try to solve the dispute through "friendly consultations" and said there was a "high-level" consensus on the need to maintain peace and stability in the region.

Van Pham, founder of the South China Sea Chronicle Initiative, a Vietnam-based think tank, said Beijing wanted to work with Vietnam on infrastructure projects, including railways, and wanted its support for projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative.

"These economic connections serve as a buffer against outright hostility, encouraging China to adopt more restrained tactics," Pham said.

Ray Powell, a maritime specialist at Stanford University, said Hanoi had taken advantage of China's focus on the dispute with the Philippines to accelerate its island-building campaign.

"Hanoi has, in choosing this moment, opportunistically stolen a march on Beijing in the South China Sea," Powell said, adding that China might have paid more attention to Vietnam's activities if the Philippines had been more "compliant".

Instead, the Philippines has also been quick to highlight clashes by releasing video footage of collisions and China's use of water cannons, as well as giving maximum publicity to incidents such as a clash in which Philippine sailors, one of whom lost a thumb, were allegedly attacked by coastguard personnel armed with knives and machetes.

These incidents have led to public condemnation of China's actions from a variety of foreign governments and forced Beijing to defend its stance and try to avoid reputational damage.

Analysts also said the long-standing US-Philippine alliance and President Ferdinand Macros Jnr's efforts to strengthen the relationship with Washington were another factor in Beijing's thinking.

Last year the two allies revived a defensive pact that granted the US access to four additional bases close to strategic hotspots such as Taiwan and the South China Sea.

The Philippines has also stepped up joint exercises, both with the US and countries such as Japan, Canada and Australia.

(to be continued)

Translation

該地區幾乎所有國家都聲稱對南海擁有主權，但其連鎖反應遠遠超出了這條爭議激烈的航道。在這個由三部分組成的系列文章的第一部分中，Alyssa Chen探討了中國對與菲律賓和越南的海上爭端的反應差異。

迄今為止，中國對越南在南沙群島快速擴張填海造島活動的反應一直比較低調，這與北京對菲律賓日益強硬的反應形成鮮明對比。

儘管近幾個月來中國和菲律賓船隻在有爭議的南海島礁附近發生了幾起衝突，但沒有記錄顯示北京試圖阻止越南的活動。

分析家表示，造成這種做法不同的因素很多，包括中國和越南之間的政治關係、越南的低調做法以及菲律賓和美國之間的聯盟。

但他們不排除北京未來採取更強硬的態度，並表示這件事仍可能引發問題。

總部位於華盛頓的戰略與國際研究中心亞洲海事透明度倡議組織 發布的衛星圖像顯示，自 2021 年以來，越南控制的島嶼和礁石周圍的填海造地活動的速度和規模前所未有。

總部位於北京的Grandview研究院5月發佈了對美國衛星圖像的評估，稱截至去年11月，越南新增“3平方公里（1.2平方英里）的土地，遠遠超過了越南過去40年的總新建規模” 。

6 月，美國智庫表示，越南 “預計在 2024 年迎來創紀錄的島嶼建設年份” ，計算出其土地面積是三年前的七倍。

在卡內基國際和平基金會的中國研究高級研究員Isaac Kardon 表示，北京當然對河內的行動感到擔憂 - 這反映它模仿了中國長達十年在其控制區域建造人工礁和設施的努力 - 並且它定期向越南作出威脅。

然而，他們在安全問題上日益密切的關係「降低了雙邊外交爭議」。

Kardon補充說： “中國正在與這南方鄰國尋求一種不同類型的雙邊關係，其特點是[共產]黨與黨關係正日益密切，並共同致力於防止海上爭端損害更廣泛的合作。”

上個月，在越南新領導人To Lam訪華期間，雙方同意努力透過「友好協商」解決爭端，並表示就維護越南和平與穩定的必要性達成了「高層」共識。

越南智庫南海紀事倡議創辦人Van Pham表示，北京希望與越南在鐵路等基礎建設項目上合作，並希望越南支持「一帶一路」倡議等項目。

Van說： “這些經濟聯繫可以緩衝公開的敵意，鼓勵中國採取更加克制的策略。”

史丹佛大學海事專家Ray Powell表示，河內利用中國對與菲律賓爭端的關注來加速其造島行動。

Powell表示： “河內選擇這個時機，是在南海趁機搶了北京的先機。” 他補充說，如果菲律賓更加“順從”，中國可能會更加關注越南的活動。

相反，菲律賓也迅速發佈了碰撞影片和中國使用高壓水槍的影片片段，並最大限度地宣傳了一些事件，例如據稱菲律賓水手遭到持刀和砍刀的海岸警衛隊人員襲擊（其中一名水手失去了一根拇指）在衝突中受傷的事件。

這些事件導致多個外國政府公開譴責中國的行為，並迫使北京捍衛自己的立場, 並盡力避免聲譽受損。

分析人士還表示，長期存在的美菲聯盟, 以及小馬可斯總統加強與華盛頓關係的努力是北京考慮的另一個因素。

去年，這兩個盟國恢復了一項防禦協議，允許美國使用靠近戰略熱點例如台灣和南海等的四個額外基地。

菲律賓也加強了與美國以及日本、加拿大和澳洲等國的聯合演習。

（待續）