日本擁有1200年歷史的櫻花資料庫迎來新主人（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Japan’s Cherry Blossom Database, 1,200 Years Old, has a New Keeper (2/2)

The remarkable catalog of dates is one of the longest-running records of climate change. Its creator died, setting off a search for a successor.

The NYT - By Hiroko Tabuchi - Hiroko Tabuchi covers pollution and the environment for The Times. She has been a journalist for more than 20 years in Tokyo and New York.

Published April 17, 2026

Updated April 18, 2026, 10:43 a.m. ET

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Slowly, the snippets of everyday life became records of the changing climate. Cherry blossoms need a period of winter cold to break dormancy, followed by warmer days to trigger blooming.

His data showed that, for roughly 1,000 years, peak bloom dates tended to fall around mid-April, with fluctuations in response to natural climate variations. But starting around 1820 to 1830, cherry trees began to bloom earlier, as Kyoto urbanized and humans burned more fossil fuels, releasing planet-warming gases into the atmosphere.

That trend has accelerated sharply in recent years. In 2021, the peak bloom in Kyoto happened on March 26, its earliest arrival in 1,200 years. That represents a shift of nearly three weeks compared to the historic average.

Using computer modeling, Prof. Aono estimated a general temperature rise of 3.4 degrees Celsius, or about 6 degrees Fahrenheit, on average in the Kyoto area over the past 170 years. He also examined the effect of Kyoto’s urbanization on local temperatures, because buildings and roads trap heat, which drives up local temperatures in a phenomenon researchers call the heat island effect.

His research still clearly indicated the effects of global warming. Climate change was making extremely early blooming events, like the record-early 2021 season, many times more likely, researchers at the British meteorological service found in a 2022 study coauthored by Prof. Aono.

Dr. Katata, his soon-to-be successor, said he aimed to further disentangle the distinct effects of global warming, urbanization, and natural variability on cherry trees. “That’s important to separate out to accurately see the impacts of climate change,” he said.

He said he hadn’t expected to be taking on a 1,200-year legacy. He had assumed that other researchers closer to the late scholar would have been prepared to take up his work, he said. But in recent years, Dr. Katata’s own research has been increasingly focused on reconstructing long-term historic climates, had started to converge with Prof. Aono’s.

The two scholars had been discussing working on a joint paper when Prof. Aono died in August, Dr. Katata said. “I had sent two final emails that I didn’t receive replies to,” he said. “I knew something was wrong.”

Patrick Gonzalez, a climate change scientist and forest ecologist at the University of California, Berkeley, called the cherry trees research “rigorous.” The data represented “a unique ecological time series,” Dr. Gonzalez said. In Washington, research had also shown cherry flowers blooming one week earlier, on average, he noted.

A shift in blossoms can have wider consequences. When flowers bloom too early, they may miss pollinators like bees and insects, for example, or be killed by a sudden late-spring frost.

Earlier blossom times can also harm fruit harvests in some species, or even lengthen pollen seasons, worsening allergies and affecting human health, said Lewis H. Ziska, a plant physiologist at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University.

“The rise in carbon dioxide and change in temperature are affecting every aspect of human existence,” he said.

In some parts of Japan, seasons may be getting too warm for certain kinds of cherry blossoms to thrive. In a study this year, researchers at the Kyushu Research Center in Japan used weather models to investigate how warmer winters were failing to provide the necessary chilling for cherry trees. That was already starting to cause abnormal flowering on Kyushu, Japan’s southernmost island, they found.

The millennium of data will be vital in navigating the coming changes, said Richard B. Primack, a plant ecologist and conservation biologist at Boston University and a co-author of the Kyushu study.

Still, some things don’t change, he noted. Just as ancient letters and diaries had provided valuable records in the past, today there is an abundance of photos of the blossoms uploaded onto social media, complete with time stamps and location tags, he said — a modern-day chronicle of cherry blossoms. This year, the cherries again reached full bloom significantly earlier, in early April, though later than the 2021 record.

“That data is all out there,” he said. “Scientists will have to just put it all together.”

Translation

日本擁有1200年歷史的櫻花資料庫迎來新主人（2/2）

這本非凡的日子目錄是紀錄氣候變遷持續最長時間的册子之一。在它的創建者去世後，人們開始尋找接班人

（繼續）

逐漸地，日常生活中的點滴演變成氣候變遷的紀錄。櫻花需要經歷一段冬季的寒冷才能打破休眠，隨後氣溫回暖才能開花。

青野教授的數據顯示，大約1000年來，櫻花的盛花期通常在4月中旬左右，並會隨著自然氣候變化而有所波動。但大約從1820年至1830年開始，隨著京都的城市化進程以及人類燃燒更多化石燃料，向大氣中排放更多導致全球暖化的氣體，櫻花開始提前開花。

近年來，這一趨勢急劇加速。 2021年，京都櫻花盛開的高峰期出現在3月26日，這是1200年來最早的一次。與歷史平均值相比，這提前了近三週。

青野教授利用電腦模型估算，過去170年間，京都地區的平均氣溫上升了3.4攝氏度，大約6華氏度。他也研究了京都城市化對地區氣溫的影響，因為建築物和道路會吸收熱量，導致局部氣溫升高，這種現像被研究人員稱為「熱島效應」。

他的研究仍然清晰地表明了全球暖化的影響。英國氣象局的研究人員在2022年發表的一項研究中發現，氣候變遷使得櫻花極度提前開花的現象（例如2021年創紀錄的早花期）發生的機率大大增加。青野教授有參與撰寫這項研究。

即將接替青野教授的Katata博士表示，他的目標是進一步釐清全球暖化、都市化和自然變異對櫻花樹的不同影響。他說 : 「要了解氣候變遷的影響，準確地區分這些因素至關重要」。

他表示，自己沒想到會接手青野教授長達1200年的研究遺產。他原本以為，與這位已故學者關係更密切的其他研究人員會接手他的工作。但近年來，Katata博士的研究越來越著重於重建長期歷史氣候，這與青野教授的研究方向開始趨於一致。

Katata博士說，在青野教授於8月去世時，兩位學者正在討論合作撰寫論文。 他說:「我最後發了兩封郵件，但都沒有收到回覆」。 「我知道有些不對勁」。

加州大學柏克萊分校的氣候變遷科學家兼森林生態學家Patrick Gonzalez稱這項櫻花研究「嚴謹」。Gonzalez博士說，這些數據代表了「獨特的生態時間序列」。他也指出，在華盛頓州，研究也顯示櫻花平均提早了一週盛開。

花期的變化可能會產生更廣泛的影響。例如，花朵過早開放可能會被授粉媒介如蜜蜂和昆蟲等錯過，或被晚春突如其來的霜凍凍死。

哥倫比亞大學梅爾曼公共衛生學院的植物生理學家Lewis H. Ziska表示，花期提前還會影響某些植物的果實產量，甚至延長花粉季，加劇過敏症狀，影響人類健康。

他說:「二氧化碳濃度上升和氣溫變化正在影響人類生存的方方面面」。

在日本部分地區，氣候可能變得過於溫暖，不利於某些品種的櫻花生長。今年，日本九州研究中心的研究人員利用氣像模型進行了一項研究，調查了冬季氣溫升高如何導致櫻花樹無法獲得必要低溫的原因。他們發現，這種情況已經開始在日本最南端的九州島造成異常開花。

波士頓大學植物生態學家兼保育生物學家、九州研究報告的合著者Richard B. Primack表示，千年來累積的數據對於應對即將到來的變化至關重要。

不過，他也指出，有些事情始終不變。正如古代書信和日記曾提供寶貴的記錄一樣，如今社交媒體上也湧現出大量帶有時間戳記和位置標籤的櫻花照片 - 這堪稱現代版的櫻花編年史。今年，櫻花再次提前盛開，在四月初就已盛開，但比2021年的記錄晚了一些。

他說:「所有數據都已公開」;「科學家們只需要把它們整合起來」。

So, for more than 1,200 years, Japanese have carefully recorded the timing of cherry blossoms in Kyoto. Cherry trees are particularly sensitive to changing temperatures, and as the planet is getting warmer, they bloom earlier and earlier. Apparently, the millennium of data is vital in knowing the past and comparing to the present. That data is out there and waiting scientists to put them together.