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2026年10月2日 星期五

Anthropic AI安全報告:阿里巴巴、深度求索涉非法蒸餾Claude對話訓練自家人工智能模型 涉逾千萬至逾億次交流引發私隱疑慮

 Recently Sinic Analytica reported the following:

Anthropic AI安全報告:阿里巴巴、深度求索涉非法蒸餾Claude對話訓練自家人工智能模型 涉逾千萬至逾億次交流引發私隱疑慮

Sinic Analytica (sinicanalytica@creator.patreon.com)

Tue, Sep 15 at 7:06 a.m.

美國人工智能公司 Anthropic 於9月10日發布威脅情報報告,指阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、月之暗面(Moonshot AI)及深度求索(DeepSeek)等中國AI實驗室,於今年5月至8月未經授權,透過「非法蒸餾」手法大規模利用 Claude 輸出,藉此訓練並強化自家AI模型能力。

阿里巴巴的蒸餾規模為目前已知最大一宗。5月至7月間,該公司經逾3500個欺詐帳戶與 Claude交流逾1.51億次。高峰期間,單日交流量一度近300萬次。阿里巴巴另運用 Claude 進行強化學習及模型架構研究。

|偽裝 Kimi 轉發用戶請求

月之暗面將部分 Kimi 用戶請求悄悄轉發至 Claude。系統其後將回應顯示予用戶,令用戶誤信正使用 Kimi 模型。單一10天內,該公司經5380個帳戶轉發近30萬次請求。多數帳戶位於新加坡及日本,當中大部分流向Claude Opus模型。5月至7月,月之暗面相關交流總數逾2300萬次。部分交流其後更用作訓練自家模型的資料。

深度求索採取與月之暗面相似手法。該公司未通知客戶,即將交流轉移至 Claude。此舉令該公司客戶未必知悉查詢已轉發至其他系統處理。2026年7月的14天內,Anthropic 偵測到逾1200萬次蒸餾攻擊。

Anthropic指出,部分交流涉及敏感資料。相關資料來自個人用戶、跨國企業及國家關聯行為者。此類做法可能違反私隱法規及各實驗室的服務條款。阿里巴巴、月之暗面、深度求索、小米及 Anthropic 均未即時回應置評請求。

(Source: sinicanalytica@creator.patreon.com)

Comment:

So, the article mentions a threat intelligence report released by the US AI company Anthropic, alleging that Chinese AI labs such as Alibaba, Moonshot AI, and DeepSeek are, through "illegal distillation", using Claude output on a large scale without authorization to train and enhance their own AI models. I find that to train and enhance AI models through "illegal distillation" is alarming. In this way, the Chinese companies can significantly reduce development costs. This also demonstrates that China relies solely on US companies for AI development. Apparently, in this rapidly evolving field, the US remains the leader in both software and hardware.

Note

1. Sinic Analytica is a UK-based advisory firm and independent think tank that specializes in data-driven political-economic analysis and international relations. Formed by a global network of experts from the UK, Canada, the US, Singapore, and Taiwan, the team leverages their unique experience at the intersection of Chinese and Western economies to provide sharp, objective market insights. Through its Patreon platform, it offers bilingual research reports and exclusive content tailored for foreign investors, asset owners, and the global Chinese diaspora, prioritizing rigorous facts and trends over emotion or political bias. (Google)

2026年8月30日 星期日

為何紅黃藍白都尊重的朱鎔基

Recently Jacky Fung Chi Ching(馮智政), a current affairs commentator on YouTube, posted the following article on Facebook:

為何紅黃藍白都尊重的朱鎔基

Jacky FUNG 馮智政

16 Aug 2026

 Books|讀Brahm 的《朱鎔基傳:朱鎔基與現代中國的轉型》

朱鎔基逝世之後,中港都有不少文章去總結他在中國改革開放的功績。有些根據官樣文章,也有從語錄Soundbite去寫其思想,兩者敍事多是藉朱鎔基推動作者的政治主張。對於朱鎔基的經濟功績及其思路,我推薦美國學者龍安志(Laurence J. Brahm)所著的《朱鎔基傳:朱鎔基與現代中國的轉型》。龍安志曾定居中國,長年涉足國際社運、國際危機調停與政治經濟研究的工作。

雖然同樣寫朱鎔基如何處理三角債、通貨膨脹、亞洲金融危機等一連串經濟問題,不過Brahm在書裡試圖為他規劃中國從封閉經濟走向開放轉型的角色,找出理論及歷史的位置。讀畢全書,最大的感受不是人物的生平故事,也不是政策的制定過程,而是一種久違的、對歷史人物複雜性的重新認識。

坊間對朱鎔基的評價,向來存在矛盾。一方面,他是在一九八九年民運期間已經身居上海市委書記要職、其後在總理任內也打壓過民主自由。另一方面,他在國企改革、落實市場經濟規則等關鍵角色,令中國慢慢走向開放。

這種矛盾之所以難以調和,是因為今天social media的政治論述,習慣以一種二元的框架去理解歷史人物:不是民主派,就是專權者;不是改革英雄,就是體制幫兇。這種框架簡單易用,卻往往解釋不到歷史的複雜,也捕捉不到歷史的拐點。

這樣的人物,歷史上並非孤例,近如李登輝、戈爾巴喬夫、辛德勒、拉貝⋯⋯今天的網上世界,習慣了在冷氣房裡看「勇者鬥惡龍」,卻失去了對時空背景Context應有的賞析與判斷。朱鎔基之所以能在前social media時代生活過的人心目中,跨越紅黃藍白被欣賞,或許正正在於此。

❚ ❚ 一個危機四伏的年代

要理解朱鎔基的處境,必須先理解他接手的爛攤子。八九六四之後,鄧小平為了證明自己改革開放的功績,加速推動經濟轉型,並放任金融企業尋租、違規行為。在工業起飛的背後,是規模龐大的債務與過度投資泡沫:國有企業之間互相拖欠、形成「三角債」,通貨膨脹一度飆升至百分之二十一;地方政府為追增長指標,重複投資,令劣質商品堆積如山。這場危機的清理工作,最終落在朱鎔基肩上。

泡沫還泡沫,但有錢賺、有工返,只要不在自己任內爆,大可以領功之後將爛攤子推給下屆。拉丁美洲如是,英國今日政治更是如是。朱鎔基卻選擇了Take hard mode:收水、減產、解散國企、地方稅改。得罪國有企業、得罪地方官員、也令工人下崗再找工作,為的就是將中國經濟推向市場規則。

這種吃力不討好的改革,在中國的政治生態裡格外危險。《朱鎔基傳》記載,一九九二年國企化債陷入困局時,「八大元老」之一、前經濟沙皇薄一波(其子正是後來因貪腐案下台的薄熙來)曾私下發出批評條子,標題是〈問題出在政策還是政策的執行者〉,劍指朱鎔基。無論朱鎔基自己頂,還是交出屬下能幹的經濟師去頂,最終都會令政策不彰、改革不成功,為政敵遞刀子,惹來更大的危機。最終他選擇自己頂,讓石萬鵬、李劍閣、樓繼偉、王岐山這班當時圍繞在他身邊的經濟班子,繼續深化改革。

或許正是這種近乎執拗的市場信仰與改革熱誠,早在一九五八年已經令他在「反右」運動中被打成右派,被下放農村勞動五年之久。歷史往往吊詭:令他吃盡苦頭的性格,正是二十年後令他成就一番事業的性格。

❚ ❚ 信號經濟學

Brahm在《朱鎔基傳》裡以信號經濟學總結朱鎔基的成功。不只於他宣布過甚麼政策,而在於他如何Anticipate民眾理解他的政策及決心,為市場造成什麼Expectation。作者龍安志反覆點出,朱政策宣示前,都意識市場與民間會如何解讀,而這種解讀又將如何反過來影響政策成效。

「我們不再叫它三角債,誰花錢誰還錢!」「誰投資,誰付錢。不然就倒閉!」「誰的孩子誰抱走。」這些短促而近乎命令式的宣言,是精心設計的訊號,目的是向所有相關的市場參與者,國企經理、地方官員、外資銀行,傳遞一個清晰而不容誤讀的預期。98年廣信破產後,他親自在全國人大閉幕記者會上略略提到:北京不會為未經政府擔保的金融企業債務埋單。這不是一句隨口談,而是一次刻意的預期管理,重新校準市場對「政府是否包底」以及「市場規則能否依靠」的預期。

書中亦提到一個微妙的細節:在公開場合,朱鎔基總是恰如其分地提到「以江澤民為核心的」集體領導決策制,又處處談到「共產黨」是政策底氣。看似又八股又擦鞋,但書裡談到匯率、化債及市場管理的決策時,他會多透露,他的「宏觀調控」重點並不在於調控政策,而在於他如何製造市場期待,而這種期待背後有政治力量及過去政績作為擔保,配合市場「短期所要的回報」、「正面對的困難」。

同樣是共產黨政權,但他管治市場的手法不同。他不是靠槍桿子逼人就範,落個行政指令叫新東方執笠、地產商爆雷,而是像格林斯潘管理美國經濟一樣,透過清晰的規則、可預期的懲罰、以及不容妥協的底線,令市場自己選擇跟隨。

❚ ❚ 對全球化與債務,專家以外的判斷

一九九七年亞洲金融危機爆發,國際貨幣基金組織與世界銀行開出的藥方,是要求區內貨幣跟隨貶值,以刺激出口。時任世界銀行首席經濟師Joseph E. Stiglitz(他有另一本書叫《全球化的許諾與失落》又值得分享)向朱鎔基提出「擴大人民幣交易波動幅度」的建議,表面溫和,實質是要引導出貶值不可避免的局面。

他的判斷建基於中國經濟結構的具體現實:中國出口有近半原料依賴進口,貶值只會推高進口成本;出口商品中,又有近半由外資企業生產,貶值等同增加外資企業的還款負擔。在香港,港元與人民幣事實上互相盯住,一旦人民幣貶值,剛剛主權移交的香港,側面衝擊聯繫匯率。但說到底,他核心關注的是,如果再靠出口依賴、廉價貨幣,中國最終會成為全球化下的依賴國。

於是,當泰國、印尼、韓國、俄羅斯的貨幣相繼崩潰,中國寧願出口減弱,都要支撐人民幣。二〇〇〇年,朱鎔基在布魯塞爾歐盟總部向歐洲工業領袖總結這場戰役:中國之所以能夠克服危機,全靠「積極的財政擴張政策、穩健的貨幣政策和產業重組政策」。這句話背後,是正式宣佈中國背棄「華盛頓共識」教條、及「宏觀調控」成功解決經濟危機。

❚ ❚ 結語

作為一個自由經濟的信徒,當然對於朱鎔基的經濟政策有不滿的地方。尤其是,對於中國加入世貿,是否欺詐資本主義國家以自肥?從書中,他對「國家經濟復興」的執着,我相信他是有意利用世貿規則漏洞,配合中國重商主義去發展。

不過,整體而言朱鎔基在他任內10年能夠拆彈,制定發展方向,理順市場參與者重新重視規則,再對比今日各國的領袖,他的功績及歷史重要性是不容忽視。經歷過朱鎔基年代的人,無論政治立場紅黃藍白,都不約而同地懷念這位國務院總理。二元的政治框架,或許永遠無法完整地安放這樣一個人物;但歷史本身,往往正正是由這些難以歸類的人所書寫的。

(Source: https://www.patreon.com/jackyfungcc/posts/books-wei-he-lan-166817130)

              So, regarding Zhu Rongji's economic achievements and his approach, Jacky Fung highly recommend the book Zhu Rongji and the Transformation of Modern China written by American scholar Laurence J. Brahm. Although the book also covers how Zhu managed a series of economic issues—such as "triangle debt" (三角債), inflation, and the Asian financial crisis, Brahm attempts to define Zhu's role in planning China's transition from a closed economy to an open market, mapping out his theoretical and historical positioning. Jacky Fung suggests that the strongest takeaway of the book is not the subject's life story, nor the policy-making process, but rather a long-absent, renewed appreciation for the complexity of historical figures. I agree with Jacky Fung’s point of view about the complexity historical figures.

Note:

1. 《朱鎔基傳:朱鎔基與現代中國的轉型》一書的英文原名:Zhu Rongji and the Transformation of Modern China。作者是美國人 Laurence J. Brahm,中文名通常譯作 “龍安志” 。中文由丁力翻譯。香港中和出版有限公司在 2012 年出版中文版,約 360 頁,ISBN 是 9789881588104。後來這本書有第二版(2020),以及 2023 年精裝典藏版。(ChatGPT)

2.  Jacky Fung Chi Ching(馮智政)經常在網上談論香港、中國、國際政治及移民議題, 是一名研究員、政策評論員和節目主持。他生於1985年,是香港中文大學物理系畢業,後來在香港大學取得國際關係碩士。他曾經在 “香港政策研究所(Hong Kong Policy Research Institute)” 工作,主要研究中國、教育及公共政策。香港大學也曾邀請他作為講者,講談中國與世界的關係。他亦曾擔任 “DBC 數碼電台、now TV、商業電台《光明頂》” 等節目主持或評論員。他現在有自己的 Patreon,以 Jacky FUNG 馮智政的名字製作影片評論。(ChatGPT)

2026年7月10日 星期五

「好得令人難以置信」:一項關於癌症治療時間的中國研究被撤稿(1/2)

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

‘Too Good to Be True’: A Chinese Study on Timing Cancer Therapy Is Retracted (1/2)

In a notice flagging a series of problems with a clinical trial, the journal Nature Medicine said its editors “no longer have confidence in the integrity of the results.”

By Rebecca Robbins - Rebecca Robbins is a Times reporter covering the pharmaceutical industry. She has been reporting on health and medicine since 2015.

June 25, 2026

Early this year, a medical journal article caught the attention of cancer patients and doctors worldwide because of its extraordinary conclusion. Simply changing the time of day that immunotherapy was administered appeared to produce a stunning benefit for lung cancer patients.

Those who received IV infusions in the morning had their cancer kept at bay for twice as long as those who got it in the afternoon, according to the results from a clinical trial in China and published in the journal Nature Medicine in February. The study also reported that the patients lived nearly twice as long.

Several oncologists said that in recent months they and their hospitals had received a flurry of calls from patients inquiring about switching to morning infusions.

But on Wednesday, Nature Medicine retracted the study, citing a list of inconsistencies and irregularities in the trial’s design and results.

“It was too good to be true,” said Dr. Toni Choueiri, an oncologist at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston who helped conduct the post-publication review that led to the retraction.

Among the issues that the journal cited in its retraction notice: Records that were supposed to be locked before the study started were changed midway through. There were discrepancies between the Chinese version of the study’s plan and the translated version. Every patient remained treated and tracked in the study’s first year, and no one dropped out because of side effects — highly unusual in an oncology study. And unusual patterns were found in the timing of follow-up scans.

“Due to the amount and nature of the problems identified, the editors no longer have confidence in the integrity of the results,” the journal said.

Most of the study’s 28 authors were in China, with several collaborators in Europe. The study was funded by the Chinese government.

China has been pumping money into its hospitals and drug companies, fueling a surge of patents, publications and new clinical trials. In just a few years, the country has rapidly transformed into a powerhouse in drug development, a shift that some U.S. officials, doctors and executives see as a threat to longstanding American dominance in the field.

China’s critics often question the reliability of its biomedical research. Experts said that, similar to studies in the United States, China’s research output spans a wide range in quality: Some Chinese scientists run their studies at the most meticulous standards. Others were said to cut corners.

(to be continued)

Translation

「好得令人難以置信」:一項關於癌症治療時間的中國研究被撤稿(1/2)

《自然醫學》雜誌在聲明中指出一項臨床試驗存在一系列問題,並表示其編輯「不再相信該研究結果的可靠性」

今年年初,一篇醫學期刊文章因其非凡的結論而引起了全球癌症患者和醫生的注意。文章指出,光是改變免疫療法的給藥時間,就能為肺癌患者帶來驚人的益處。

根據2月發表在《自然醫學》雜誌上的一項中國臨床試驗的結果,上午接受靜脈輸液的患者,其控制癌症的時間是下午接受輸液患者的兩倍。該研究還報告稱,上午接受輸液的患者存活期也延長了近一倍。

多位腫瘤科醫師表示,近幾個月來,他們和他們的醫院接到大量病患來電,詢問如何改為上午輸液。

但在周三,《自然醫學》雜誌撤回了這項研究,理由是試驗設計和結果有一系列不一致和不規範之處。

波士頓丹娜-法伯癌症研究所 的腫瘤科醫生Toni Choueiri博士說道:「這簡直好得令人難以置信」。她參與了協助進行發表後的審查,並最終導致撤稿的人仕。

該期刊在撤稿聲明中列舉的問題包括:本應在研究開始前鎖定的記錄在研究進行到一半時被更改;研究方案的中文版和翻譯版之間存在差異;所有患者在研究的第一年都接受了治療和隨訪,而且沒有人因副作用而退出 - 這在腫瘤學研究中極為罕見;此外,隨訪掃描的時間安排也存在異常模式。

期刊表示:「鑑於發現的問題數量之多、性質之複雜,編輯們對研究結果的可靠性已不再有信心」。

這項研究的28位作者大多來自中國,另有幾位合作者在歐洲。該研究由中國政府資助。

 中國一直在大力投資其醫院和製藥公司,推動了專利、論文發表和新臨床試驗數量的激增。短短幾年內,中國已迅速轉型為藥物研發強國,這一轉變被一些美國官員、醫生和企業高管視為對美國在該領域長期主導地位的威脅。

中國的批評者經常質疑其生物醫學研究的可靠性。專家表示,與美國的研究類似,中國的研究成果品質參差不齊:一些中國科學家以極為嚴謹的標準進行研究,而另一些科學家則被指走捷徑。

(待續)

2026年3月4日 星期三

中國深山之中,一個核武復興正在成形(1/2)

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Zitong Nuclear site compared (Credit: the NYT)

Deep in China’s Mountains, a Nuclear Revival Takes Shape (1/2)

Satellite imagery of secretive nuclear facilities reveals Beijing’s efforts to expand its arsenal, just as the last global guardrails on nuclear weapons vanish.

The NYT - By Chris Buckley and Agnes Chang

 Feb. 15, 2026

In the lush, misty valleys of southwest China, satellite imagery reveals the country’s accelerating nuclear buildup, a force designed for a new age of superpower rivalry.

One such valley is known as Zitong, in Sichuan Province, where engineers have been building new bunkers and ramparts. A new complex bristles with pipes, suggesting the facility handles highly hazardous materials.

Another valley is home to a double-fenced facility known as Pingtong, where experts believe China is making plutonium-packed cores of nuclear warheads. The main structure, dominated by a 360-foot-high ventilation stack, has been refurbished in recent years with new vents and heat dispersers. More construction is underway next to it.

Above the Pingtong facility entrance, a hallmark exhortation of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, appears in characters so large they are visible from space: “Stay true to the founding cause and always remember our mission.”

These are among several secretive nuclear-related sites in Sichuan Province that have expanded and undergone upgrades in recent years.

China’s buildup complicates efforts to revive global arms controls after the expiration of the final remaining nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia. Washington argues that any successor agreements must also bind China, but Beijing has shown no interest.

“The changes we see on the ground at these sites align with China’s broader goals of becoming a global superpower. Nuclear weapons are an integral part of that,” said Renny Babiarz, a geospatial intelligence expert who has analyzed satellite images and other visual evidence of the sites and shared his findings with The New York Times.

He likened each nuclear location across China to a piece of a mosaic that, seen as a whole, shows a pattern of rapid growth. “There’s been evolution at all of these sites, but broadly speaking, that change accelerated starting from 2019,” he said.

China’s nuclear expansion has been a growing source of tension with the United States. Thomas G. DiNanno, the State Department’s under secretary for arms control and international security, this month publicly accused China of secretly conducting “nuclear explosive tests” in contravention of a global moratorium. Beijing has rejected the claim as untrue, and experts have debated how strong the evidence is for Mr. DiNanno’s assertions.

China had more than 600 nuclear warheads by the end of 2024 and is on track to have 1,000 by 2030, according to the Pentagon’s latest annual estimate. China’s stockpile is much smaller than the many thousands held by the United States and Russia, but its growth is still troublesome, said Matthew Sharp, a former State Department official who is now a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“I think without a real dialogue on these topics, which we lack, it’s really hard to say where it’s going, and that, for me, is dangerous,” he said, “because now we’re forced to react and plan around the worst-case interpretation of a concerning trend line.”

(to be continued)

Translation

中國深山之中,一個核武復興正在成形(1/2)

衛星影像顯示,北京正試圖擴充其核武庫,此時,全球核武的最後一道阻止欄已不復存在。

在中國西南部翠綠、霧氣繚繞的山谷中,衛星圖像揭示了中國正在加速推進的核武庫建設,這股力量旨在應對新時代的超級大國競爭。

四川省的Zitong谷便是其中之一,工程師們正在那裡建造新的掩體和防禦工事。一個新建築群內部管道密佈,顯示該設施正在處理高危險物質。

另一個山谷中坐落著一座名為Pingtong的有雙層圍欄設施,專家認為中國正在那裡製造裝有鈽的核彈頭核心。這座以高達360英尺(約110公尺)的通風煙囪為主體的設施,近年來經過翻新,增設了新的通風口和散熱裝置。其旁邊正在進行更多建設。

在Pingtong設施入口上方,赫然醒目地鎘刻著中國領導人習近平的一句標誌性訓誡:「不忘初心,不忘使命」, 其字號之大,甚至從太空都能清晰可見。

這些設施只是四川省近年來擴建和升級的眾多秘密核子設施之一。

隨著美俄之間僅存的核武條約到期,中國的核武庫建設使得重啟全球軍控的努力變得更加複雜。華盛頓方面認為,任何後續協議都必須對中國具有約束力,但北京方面對此毫無興趣。

地理空間情報專家Renny Babiarz說道:「我們在這些地點觀察到的實際情況與中國成為全球超級大國的宏偉目標相符。核武是其中不可或缺的一部分」。他分析了衛星影像和其他相關視覺證據,並將研究結果分享給《紐約時報》。

他將中國各地的核設施比喻為合組成的圖案中的一塊,整體來看,呈現出快速發展的模式。 他說:「所有這些地點都在不斷演變,但總的來說,這種變化從2019年開始加速」。

中國的核子擴張已成為中美關係日益緊張的根源。本月,美國國務院負責軍控和國際安全的副國務卿Thomas G. DiNanno公開指責中國違反全球暫停核試驗協議,秘密進行「核爆試驗」。北京方面否認了這項指控,專家們也對DiNanno先生的說法究竟有多少證據支持展開了辯論。

根據五角大廈最新的年度估算,到2024年底,中國將擁有超過600枚核彈頭,預計在2030年達到1,000枚。麻省理工學院核安政策中心高級研究員、前國務院官員Matthew Sharp表示,中國的核武庫規模遠小於美國和俄羅斯數以千計的核彈頭,但其成長速度仍令人擔憂。

他說道:“我認為,如果我們缺乏就這些議題展開真正的對話(而這正是我們所欠缺的),就很難預測事態的發展方向,而這對我來說是危險的”,“因為現在我們不得不根據令人擔憂的趨勢線的最壞情況來做出反應和製定計劃。”

(待續)

2025年9月1日 星期一

中國已做好迎接貿易戰的準備,美國仍有許多需要學習的地方(1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China Came Ready for This Trade Fight, and the US Has a Lot to Learn (1/2)

Bloomberg - Tom Orlik, Eric Zhu and Jennifer Welch

Wed, August 13, 2025 at 3:00 a.m. PDT 8 min read

(Bloomberg Markets) -- Under President Donald Trump, the US has launched a multipronged attack on China’s economy. Since Chairman Mao Zedong’s reign, China has seen it coming. A US system built around the ideal of openness and interdependence is facing off against a Chinese counterpart constructed as a fortress of control. Both sides have powerful resources. Only one has been preparing for the fight for decades.

Since the beginning of Trump’s first term in 2017, the US stance on China has swung from constructive if increasingly cautious engagement to something between fierce rivalry and outright hostility. China’s exports to the US face duties running close to 40%. Supply of bleeding-edge semiconductors for China’s technology companies has been curtailed. The country’s science, technology, engineering and math students, once welcomed into US university labs, are checked at the border. The social media app TikTok, owned by Chinese parent ByteDance Ltd., is on a stay of execution in the US market.

The assumption in Washington is that China must now be floundering. Isn’t it hooked on US customers and technologies? It’s only a matter of time, surely, before President Xi Jinping picks up his red phone to call the White House and concede defeat.

The reality is rather different. It’s certainly true that Trump’s policy pivot is a problem for Beijing. Bloomberg Economics calculations show tariffs at the current levels would erase more than 50% of sales to the US. But it’s far from the end of China’s development story.

China’s exports to the US equal about 3% of gross domestic product—down from a peak of 7% two decades ago, after a campaign to diversify away from American consumers that’s been every bit as deliberate as US efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. That means even if half of China’s exports to the US get wiped out, the blow to the overall economy is just 1.5%. Not good news, to be sure, but far from a disaster.

With the US starting a trade war against not just China but everyone else as well, its losses may well be around the same size. Model-based estimates from Bloomberg Economics flag a hit of about 1.6% of GDP as import prices rise and supply chains snarl.

The algorithmic outperformance of DeepSeek (China’s answer to ChatGPT) shows its coders are smart enough to work around the US embargo on semiconductor supplies. Control of rare earth elements critical for manufacturing and defense industries has given China an export-controls weapon of its own—one it’s used in this year’s negotiations in Geneva and London to extract concessions from the US.

The upshot: Even after almost a decade of US efforts to contain its manufacturing might, China’s share of global exports remains elevated.

Why is China proving so resilient? Because for more than a century, from the last gasp of the Qing dynasty, through a short-lived Republic, to the chaos of Maoism and the progress of the reform era, there’s been one outstanding constant: preparation for the struggle now playing out.

It started in the late 19th and early 20th century, when, after humiliation from foreign invaders, China’s thinkers started to aim at “self-strengthening” through modernization. Born in 1854, and graduating from the British naval academy, intellectual and educator Yan Fu translated into Chinese the works of Western scholars such as English biologist Thomas Huxley and Scottish economist Adam Smith. From Huxley he introduced the idea of “survival of the fittest,” making the case that nations, like species in the natural world, must continually build themselves up to avoid falling prey to more powerful rivals.

In the 1930s struggle between Mao’s Communists and Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists, Mao’s promise of effective resistance against the Japanese invaders, as much as the dream of a more egalitarian society, was the center of his appeal. In power from 1949, he instituted a forced-march approach to industrialization that ended in the graveyard for many Chinese. The path was winding, but the aim was unwavering: Stave off foreign threats. “The American imperialists have always wanted to destroy us,” he warned.

In the reform era that began soon after Mao’s death in 1976, the self-strengthening objective remained the same, but the policies to deliver it were vastly improved. In the 1980s and ’90s, He Xin—a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences scholar whose work ­circulated among top leaders—warned that as China rose, “developed countries feeling threatened by the increase in ­competition will seek to hold China down.” He had a plan to respond: “With the constant threat of being destroyed, building a fully self-reliant industrial system should naturally be the most realistic option for China.”

(to be continued)

Translation

中國已做好迎接貿易戰的準備,美國仍有許多需要學習的地方(1/2)

(彭博市場)—在特朗普總統的領導下,美國對中國經濟發動了多管齊下的攻擊。自毛澤東主席執政以來,中國就已預見此一趨勢。以開放和相互依存為理念建構的美國體系,正與以控制堡壘為核心建構的中國體系對峙。雙方都擁有強大的資源。只有一方為這場鬥爭準備了數十年。

自2017年特朗普第一任期開始以來,美國對華立場已從建設性但日益謹慎的接觸,轉變為介於激烈競爭和徹底敵對之間的一種狀態。中國對美出口面臨近40%的關稅。中國科技公司尖端半導體的供應已受到限制。曾經受美國大學實驗室歡迎的中國科學、技術、工程和數學專業的學生,如今卻在邊境受到檢查。其中國母公司字節跳動旗下的社群媒體應用程式TikTok 在美國的市場被暫停營運。

華盛頓的假設是,中國現在肯定陷入困境。難道它不依賴美國客戶和科技嗎? 習近平主席會拿起他的紅色電話致電白宮承認失敗肯定只是時間上的問題。

現實情況並非如此。特朗普的政策轉向確實對北京構成了問題。彭博經濟研究的計算顯示,以目前的水平徵收關稅將使中國對美銷售額減少50%以上。但這遠非中國發展過程的終點。

中國對美出口約佔國內生產毛額(GDP)的3%,低於20年前7%的最高峰。此前,中國積極推動經濟多元化,減少對美國消費者的依賴,這與美國減少對中國供應鏈的依賴的努力同樣深思熟慮。這意味著,即使中國對美出口減少一半,對整體經濟的打擊僅1.5%。這當然不是好消息,但遠非災難。

隨著美國不僅對中國發動貿易戰,也對其他國家發動貿易戰,其損失很可能與美國本身大致相同。彭博經濟研究基於模型的估計顯示,由於進口價格上漲和供應鏈混亂,GDP將受到約1.6%的衝擊。

DeepSeek(中國版ChatGPT)演算法的優異表現表明,其程式設計師足夠聰明,能夠繞過美國的半導體供應禁運。中國對製造業和國防工業至關重要的稀土元素的控制,讓它擁有了出口管制的武器 - 在今年日內瓦和倫敦的談判中,中國也利用了這項武器迫使美國讓步。

結果:即使美國近十年來一直試圖遏制中國製造業實力,中國在全球出口中的份額仍然保持在高位。

中國為何如此堅韌?因為一個多世紀以來,從清朝的末期,到曇花一現的民國,再到毛澤東時代的混亂和改革開放的進步,中國始終堅持一個突出的原則:為現今的鬥爭做好準備。

這始於19世紀末20世紀初,當時飽受外敵侵略之辱的中國思想家開始致力於透過現代化去實現「自強」。嚴復 (Yan Fu)出生於1854年,畢業於英國海軍學院,是一位知識分子和教育家,他將英國生物學家 Thomas Huxley 和蘇格蘭經濟學家亞 Adam Smith 當等西方學者的著作翻譯成中文。他從Huxley的著作中引入了「適者生存」的概念,認為國家如同自然界中的物種一樣,必須不斷自我發展,才能避免被更強大的對手吞噬。

在1930年代毛澤東領導的共產黨與蔣介石領導的國民黨之間的鬥爭中,毛澤東的核心號召力是承諾有效抵抗日本侵略者的,以及建立一個更加平等社會的夢想。 1949年上台後,他推行了強行推進工業化的路線,但最終卻讓許多中國人走向了墳墓。這條路雖然曲折,但目標堅定不移:抵禦外來威脅。他警告說: “美帝國主義者一直想毀滅我們。”

1976年毛澤東去世後不久中國開啟的改革開放時期,自強不息的目標依然如故,但去實現這一目標的政策卻得到了極大的改進。在1980年代和1990年代,中國社會科學院學者何新 (He Xin) (其著作曾在高層領導人中流傳)曾警告稱,隨著中國的崛起,「已開發國家感受到競爭加劇帶來的威脅,將試圖壓制中國」。他制定了應對計劃:「面對持續存在的被摧毀的威脅,建立一個完全自給自足的工業體係自然應該是中國最實際的選擇。」

(待續)

Note:

1. Yan Fu (嚴復)(1854–1921), born in 1854 in Fuzhou of China, began his scholarly journey at a young age. His early education was rooted in traditional Chinese learning, starting at a private school around age seven, then under the tutelage of esteemed scholars from age eleven, laying a strong foundation in the Confucian classics. After his father’s death in 1866 that plunged the family into hardship, Yan Fu entered the Foochow Arsenal Academy in 1867, where he studied English, mathematics, physics, chemistry, astronomy, navigation, and other practical subjects. He graduated with top honors in 1871 and then served aboard naval vessels for five years. In 1877, Yan Fu was sent to Europe to further his studies. He first studied in Portsmouth in Britain before earning admission to the Royal Naval College at Greenwich in London. There, he excelled in advanced mathematics, chemistry, physics, naval tactics, maritime law, and artillery fortifications. During his time in Britain, he immersed himself beyond his assigned courses by frequently visiting libraries, attending court sessions, and exploring Western political, economic, and social philosophies, fueling his lifelong quest to understand the sources of Western strength. (ChatGPT)

2025年5月6日 星期二

衛星影像顯示中國正在興建的秘密指揮中心「北京軍城」。它可能是世界上最大的。 (2/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Satellite images show 'Beijing Military City,' the secretive command center China is building. It may be the world's largest. (2/2)

Business Insider - Lauren Frias

Wed, April 16, 2025 at 11:07 a.m. PDT·5 min read

(continue)

A covert construction project

In June 2024, the construction site hardly resembled what it looked like a little over a year earlier, with new tunnels and roadways surrounding a central block of land potentially reserved for the main complex building.

There are no official mentions of the construction site on Chinese government websites, and the Chinese embassy said they were not aware of the details of the new command center.

While there hasn't been any visible military presence at the complex, access to the facility is strictly prohibited.

Signs show that drones and pictures are not allowed near the site, and a checkpoint has blocked off the back of the site. People have also been banned from using hiking trails near the site.

 

World's biggest military command center

Brady Africk, the deputy director of Media Relations and Data Design at the American Enterprise Institute, posted a timelapse on X capturing the site's speedy build-up in just a year.

A former senior US intelligence official told the Financial Times that the new command center could replace China's existing military headquarters, which was built during the Cold War.

"The size, scale, and partially buried characteristics of the new facility suggest it will replace the Western Hills complex as the primary wartime command facility," the official said.

 

A potential 'doomsday bunker'

Aside from being the anticipated central hub of Chinese military operations, the former US official said the facility could also offer "greater security against US 'bunker buster' munitions" for Chinese officials in the event of war.

Renny Babiarz, a former imagery analyst at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, told the Financial Times that satellite images appeared to show about 100 cranes at the site constructing subterranean facilities and passageways.

With deep underground tunnels and spaces reinforced in concrete, a China researcher told the Financial Times that the complex had "all the hallmarks of a sensitive military facility."

 

"Nearly 10 times bigger than the Pentagon, it's fitting for Xi Jinping's ambitions to surpass the US," the researcher said. "This fortress only serves one purpose, which is to act as a doomsday bunker for China's increasingly sophisticated and capable military."

 

China's growing military ambitions

The new command center is the latest move that demonstrates China's advancing military ambitions. The Chinese People's Liberation Army set a goal to modernize the country's military by 2027.

As of mid-2024, the Pentagon estimated that China's Rocket Force likely had more than 600 operational nuclear warheads, and the figure is only expected to grow. Defense officials estimate China's nuclear arsenal could have as many as 1,500 deployed nuclear warheads by 2035 — roughly matching those of the US.

Translation

衛星影像顯示中國正在興建的秘密指揮中心「北京軍城」。它可能是世界上最大的。 (2/2)

(繼續)

一項隱密的建設項目

 

2024 年 6 月,施工現場與一年多前相比已大不相同,新的隧道和道路環繞著一塊可能為主要綜合建築預留的中心地塊。

中國政府網站上沒有關於該施工現場的官方信息,中國大使館表示他們不清楚新指揮中心的具體細節。

雖然建築群內沒有明顯的軍事存在,但嚴禁進入該設施。

施工地方有標誌顯示,無人機和照片不得靠近該地點,且檢查站已封鎖了該地點的後方。人們也被禁止使用在該地點附近的遠足路徑。

 

世界最大的軍事指揮中心

美國企業研究所 的 媒體關係和數據設計 副主任Brady Africk 在 X 上發布了一段延時攝影視頻,記錄了該網站在短短一年內快速發展的過程。

一位前美國高級情報官員向英國《金融時報》表示,新的指揮中心可能取代中國現有的冷戰時期建造的軍事總部。

這位官員說: “新設施的大小、規模和部分埋藏的特點表明,它將取代西山綜合設施 成為主要的戰時指揮設施。”

 

潛在的“末日地堡”

這位前美國官員表示,除了成為預期的中國軍事行動中心樞紐之外,一旦發生戰爭,該設施還可以為中國官員提供「更強的安全保障,抵禦美國『打擊地堡的武器』」。

美國國家地理空間情報局 前影像分析師 Renny Babiarz 向英國《金融時報》表示,衛星影像顯示,現場約有 100 台起重機正在建造地下設施和通道。

一位研究中國的人仕告訴英國《金融時報》,由於地下有深隧道和混凝土加固的空間,該建築群「具備敏感軍事設施的所有特徵」。

研究人員表示: “它的規模幾乎是五角大樓的10倍,這符合習近平超越美國的野心”; “這座堡壘只有一個目的,那就是作為中國日益先進和強大的軍隊的末日地堡。”

 

中國日益增長的軍事野心

新的指揮中心是展現中國日益增強的軍事野心的最新舉措。中國人民解放軍設定了2027年實現軍隊現代化的目標。

五角大廈估計,截至2024年中期,中國火箭部隊可能擁有超過600枚可操作的核彈頭,而且這一數字預計還會成長。國防官員估計,到2035年,中國的核武庫可能擁有多達1,500枚核彈頭,大致與美國相約。

              So, China is constructing a massive military headquarters about 20 miles southwest of the capital that will surpass the Pentagon in size. It could be a doomsday bunker for China. The new command center is the latest move that demonstrates China's advancing military ambitions.

2025年5月4日 星期日

衛星影像顯示中國正在興建的秘密指揮中心「北京軍城」。它可能是世界上最大的。 (1/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Satellite images show 'Beijing Military City' , the secretive command center China is building. It may be the world's largest. (1/2)


Business Insider - Lauren Frias

Wed, April 16, 2025 at 11:07 a.m. PDT·5 min read

China is constructing a massive military headquarters that could surpass the Pentagon — famously known as the world's largest office building — in size.

Dubbed the "Beijing Military City," satellite images captured the rapid build-up of the secretive facility located about 20 miles southwest of the capital.

While there is no visible military presence around the complex, US intelligence officials believe the colossal complex could serve as a wartime command center and nuclear bunker. China is rapidly building a nuclear arsenal that, in a decade, could rival that of the US.

US-China tensions over Taiwan

China's increasing military presence in the East and South China Sea — particularly in proximity to Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines — prompted the US to counter Beijing's influence in the Indo-Pacific.

As both nations vie for influence in the region, the US has been running joint military exercises with allied nations to ready their forces to operate together.

Beijing has also increased its naval and air operations in waters near Taiwan, leading US military officials to deem them not as "exercises, they are rehearsals" for a forced reunification of Taiwan with mainland China.

Taiwan has bolstered its defense measures ahead of a potential invasion from China, which claims that the self-governing democracy is part of its territory.

With numerous short-range ballistic missiles and international ballistic missiles at its disposal, China's nuclear arsenal poses as much of a threat to global adversaries as it does to its neighbors. 

Before construction

The Financial Times first reported the complex's construction in January, showing satellite images of the site spanning nearly 2.5 miles.

In February 2022, the site was built in an area north of the Chongqing Reservoir that appeared to be residential, with large tracts of open land, according to satellite imagery.

Cleared out a year later

Satellite imagery taken in February 2023 showed the area largely cleared of residential buildings in preparation for major construction of the complex, which appeared to begin in mid-2024.

(to be continued)

Translation

衛星影像顯示中國正在興建的秘密指揮中心「北京軍城」。它可能是世界上最大的。 (1/2)

 

中國正在建造一座規模可能超過五角大廈 (世界出名的最大辦公大樓) 的大型軍事總部。

這座被稱為「北京軍城」的秘密設施位於北京西南約 20 英里處,衛星圖像捕捉到了其快速建設的景象。

雖然建築群周圍沒有明顯的軍事存在,但美國情報官員認為,這個龐大的建築群可以作為戰時指揮中心和防核地堡。中國正迅速建造核武庫,十年後其核武庫將可與美國匹敵。

美中在台灣的緊張關係

中國在東海和南海日益增強的軍事存在 - 特別是在靠近台灣、日本和菲律賓的地區 - 促使美國作出抗衡北京在印太地區的影響力。

由於兩國都在爭奪該地區的影響力,美國一直在與盟國舉行聯合軍事演習,為他們的軍隊做好聯合行動的準備。

北京也增加了在台灣附近海域的海空行動,導至美國軍方官員宣稱這些行動不是「演習,而是強制台灣與中國大陸統一的預演」。

面對中國可能入侵台灣,台灣已加強防禦措施,中國聲稱這個自治民主國家是其領土的一部分。

中國擁有許多短程彈道導彈和洲際彈道導彈,其核武庫對全球對手的威脅不亞於對鄰國的威脅。

施工前

英國《金融時報》於今年 1 月首次報導了該綜合大樓的建設情況,並展示了該綜合大樓綿延近 2.5 英里的衛星圖像。

2022年2月,該工地建在重慶水庫以北的一處區域,根據衛星影像,該區域似乎是住宅區,有大片空地。

一年後被清理

2023 年 2 月拍攝的衛星圖像顯示,該地區大部分住宅建築已被清理,為該綜合大樓的大規模建設做準備,建設似是於 2024 年中開始。

(待續)

2025年3月24日 星期一

一家名不見經傳的中國公司研發出一種藥物,打敗了全球最暢銷的藥物(2/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

A little-known Chinese company made a drug that beat the world’s biggest-selling medicine (2/2)

Wayne Chang, Will Ripley and Eric Cheung, CNN

Tue, February 25, 2025 at 6:59 p.m. PST·5 min read

(continue)

According to a research note published by HSBC Qianhai Securities earlier this month, China is becoming an innovation hub for the entire industry, with the number of licensing deals jumping from just 46 in 2017 to more than 200 last year. The total deal amount was just $4 billion in 2017, and rose to $57 billion last year, it said.

And figures from market intelligence firm Mergermarket indicated that large pharmaceutical transactions worth $50 million or more involving Chinese firms grew nearly 30% in 2024 compared to the previous year.

Cui Cui, managing director of healthcare research for Jefferies, said Chinese biotech firms’ research capabilities and development efficiency are catching up, thanks to factors such as strong government support, foreign investment and a wealth of domestic talent.

“In the past, [Chinese biotech] are perceived to be only copycats, but in the future, it might be able to compete with the global best-in-class pharmaceutical companies,” Cui told CNN.

 

Doubts at home

But while Akeso’s achievement is making waves overseas, debate is raging in China over the quality of domestically produced generic drugs, which have the same active ingredients as patented drugs but are much cheaper.

Distrust over the track record of domestically produced medicine runs deep in China. Such concerns spiraled into public uproar last month over the alleged questionable quality of Chinese generic drugs, which has led to an official investigation.

China’s health regulator subsequently defended the safety of the drugs, saying the probe found the quality concerns to be unsubstantiated. Several Beijing residents told CNN last week that they were not familiar with Akeso or its new drug and still preferred imported drugs.

“To be honest, I tend to choose the more expensive medicine. After all, you get what you pay for,” Gu Zhihao, a Beijing resident, told CNN.

US investors and regulators have previously questioned the quality of clinical trial data gathered in China. Liang said the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has rejected drugs developed in the country in the past because the trial setup was “not rigorous enough.”

Akeso’s new drug, which is not a generic, has been approved by China’s pharmaceutical regulator for some lung cancer patients. But it is still years away from being sold in the US.

A global trial is now in the works for later this year, which could further prove its efficacy, according to Cui. If the outcome is sound, it would be further evidence of the strides China has made in developing cutting-edge drugs.

Translation

一家名不見經傳的中國公司研發出一種藥物,打敗了全球最暢銷的藥物(2/2)

(繼續)

根據匯豐前海證券本月稍早發布的一份研究報告,中國正在成為這整個產業的創新中心,其授權交易數量從 2017 年的 46 項躍升至去年的 200 多項。該公司表示,2017年交易總額僅40億美元,去年則升至570億美元。

市場情報公司 Mergermarket 的數據顯示,2024 年涉及中國企業的價值 5,000 萬美元或以上的大型醫藥交易比上一年增長了近 30%。

Jefferies的醫療保健研究董事總經理 Cui Cui表示,得益於政府的大力支持、外國投資和豐富的國內人才等因素,中國生物科技公司的研發能力和開發效率正在迎頭趕上。

Cui告訴 CNN: “過去,人們認為(中國生物科技)只是模仿者,但未來它或許能夠與全球一流的製藥公司競爭。”

 

國內疑慮

然而,儘管康方生物的成功在海外引起轟動,但中國國內對國產仿製藥的品質卻存在激烈爭論。

中國國內對國產藥品的業績記錄存在著根深蒂固的不信任。上個月,中國仿製藥品質問題引發民眾擔憂,並引發官方調查。

中國衛生監管機構隨後為這些藥品的安全性進行辯護,表示調查發現的品質問題沒有根據。上週,幾名北京居民告訴 CNN,他們不熟悉康方生物及其新藥,仍然更喜歡進口藥。

北京居民 Gu Zhihao 告訴 CNN: 「說實話,我傾向於選擇更昂貴的藥物。畢竟,一分錢一分貨」。

美國投資者和監管機構先前曾對中國收集的臨床試驗數據的品質提出質疑。Rebecca Liang 說,美國食品藥物管理局(FDA)過去曾拒絕該國研發的藥物,因為試驗設置「不夠嚴格」。

康方生物的新藥並非仿製藥,已獲得中國藥品監管機構的批准,可用於治療某些肺癌患者。但它距離在美國銷售仍需數年時間。

Cui表示,目前正準備在今年稍後進行全球試驗,這將進一步證明其有效性。如果結果良好,這將進一步證明中國在研發尖端藥物方面取得了長足進步。

       So, Akeso has shaken up the biotech sector with its new lung cancer drug known as Ivonescimab.In a test conducted in China, the performance of this new drug was found more effective when compared with Keytruda, according to clinical data released at the World Conference on Lung Cancer. I am interested in knowing the result of a global trial on this medicine. 

2025年3月23日 星期日

一家名不見經傳的中國公司研發出一種藥物,打敗了全球最暢銷的藥物(1/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

A little-known Chinese company made a drug that beat the world’s biggest-selling medicine (1/2)

Wayne Chang, Will Ripley and Eric Cheung, CNN

Tue, February 25, 2025 at 6:59 p.m. PST·5 min read

China’s DeepSeek shocked the world by delivering unexpected innovation at an unbelievable price. But this disruptive trend isn’t confined to Big Tech: it has been quietly happening in the pharmaceutical sector.

In September, Akeso, a little-known Chinese biotech company founded nearly a decade ago shook up the biotech sector with its new lung cancer drug.

Ivonescimab, the new drug, was found in a trial conducted in China to have bested Keytruda, the blockbuster medication developed by Merck that has raked in more than $130 billion in sales for the American behemoth that has dominated cancer treatment.

Patients treated with Akeso’s new drug went 11.1 months before their tumors began to grow again, compared with 5.8 months for Keytruda, according to clinical data released at the World Conference on Lung Cancer, a top medical forum.

Over the course of several days in early September, shares in California-based Summit Therapeutics, Akeso’s US partner, more than doubled to a record high, according to data from Refinitiv. The firm had licensed the right to commercialize the new drug in North America and Europe.

At the time, though experts said it was a watershed moment for Chinese pharmaceutical companies, it was little noticed outside the industry. All that changed following DeepSeek’s exploits earlier this year, which put international attention on pockets of innovation in China — with growing global implications.

“I do believe the Chinese biotech industry will play an important role globally. And we [will] participate more and more,” Michelle Xia, the CEO of Akeso, said in an interview last month with BiotechTV.

In a statement sent to CNN, Akeso said it was an “incredibly exciting moment” to see its drug beat Keytruda, the world’s best-selling medication.

“Akeso’s innovation is driven by a deep understanding of disease biology and protein engineering, while benefitting from the fast development time and the abundance of top-tier talent in China,” it said.

 

The rise of Chinese biotech

Until the 1980s, when China opened up its economy, most of its pharmaceutical firms were state-owned. For most of the past 40 years, Chinese biotech companies were mainly replicating existing medications, known as “me-too” drugs.

But over the past 10 years, they’ve begun to innovate with more advanced drugs that can compete directly with the Western offerings. And they’ve signed billions of dollars in licensing deals with Western partners to get their products to the rest of the world.

AstraZeneca signed a $1.92 billion deal with China’s CSPC Pharmaceutical Group last year to develop cardiovascular medication, and Merck has a $2 billion agreement with China’s Hansoh Pharmaceutical over an experimental weight loss pill.

“People were aware that the biotech industry was growing very fast in China, but very few saw it as a real threat to the top US innovators,” said Rebecca Liang, a pharmaceuticals analyst at AB Bernstein. “Now the threat is getting real, because you do start to see these next generation drugs that are sort of a leapfrog.”

(to be continued)

Translation

一家名不見經傳的中國公司研發出一種藥物,打敗了全球最暢銷的藥物(1/2)

中國的 DeepSeek 以令人難以置信的價格實現了意想不到的創新,震驚了世界。但這種顛覆性趨勢並不限於大型科技公司:它也已在製藥業悄悄發生。

9 月,康方生物 - 一家成立於近十年、名不見經傳的中國生物科技公司 - 憑藉其新型肺癌藥物震撼了生物科技界。

在中國進行的一項試驗發現,新藥 Ivonescimab 的效果優於Merck公司開發的暢銷藥物 Keytruda,後者為主導癌症治療市場的美國巨頭帶來了超過 1,300 億美元的銷售額。

根據在頂級醫學論壇世界肺癌大會上發布的臨床數據,使用康方新藥治療的患者的腫瘤在 11.1 個月後才開始再次生長,而使用 Keytruda 治療的患者的腫瘤在 5.8 個月後就開始再次生長。

根據 Refinitiv 的數據,9 月初的幾天內,康方生物美國合作夥伴加州 Summit Therapeutics 的股價上漲了一倍多,創下歷史新高。該公司已獲得在北美和歐洲銷售該新藥的權利。

當時,儘管專家表示,這是中國製藥公司的分水嶺,但業內外卻很少注意到。今年早些時候,DeepSeek 的探索讓一切都改變了,中國的其中一些團體的創新引起了國際社會的關注,其全球影響力也越來越大。

康方生物執行長Michelle Xia上個月在接受 BiotechTV 採訪時表示: 「我確實相信中國生物科技產業將在全球發揮重要作用。而且我們將會有更多參與」。

康方生物在發給 CNN 的聲明中表示,看到自己的藥物擊敗全球最暢銷藥物 Keytruda,是一個「無比令人興奮的時刻」。

該公司表示: “康方生物的創新是源於對疾病生物學和蛋白質工程的深刻理解,同時受益於中國快速的發展時間和豐富的頂尖人才。”

 

中國生物科技的崛起

直到1980年代中國實施經濟開放前,大多數製藥公司都是國營企業。在過去 40 年的大部分時間裡,中國生物科技公司主要在複製現有藥物,即所謂的「仿製藥」。

但在過去十年裡,他們開始創新,研發出更先進的藥物,可以直接與西方藥物競爭。他們還與西方合作夥伴簽署了價值數十億美元的授權協議,以將他們的產品推向世界其他地區。

去年,AstraZeneca 與中國石藥集團簽署了一項價值 19.2 億美元的協議,開發心血管藥物,而Merck則與中國豪森藥業簽署了一項價值 20 億美元的協議,共同開發一種實驗性減肥藥。

AB Bernstein 的製藥業分析師 Rebecca Liang 表示:“人們意識到中國生物技術產業發展非常迅速,但很少有人認為這對美國頂尖創新者構成了真正的威脅” ; “現在威脅已經變得真實,因為你確實開始看到這些下一代藥物具有蛙跳式的發展。”

(待續)

Note:

1.Akeso, Inc. (康方生物), established in 2012, is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the research, development, manufacturing and commercialization of new innovative antibody drugs that are affordable to patients worldwide. (https://www.akesobio.com/en/about-us/corporate-profile/)

2. A me-too drug (類似藥物)as defined as a pharmacologically active compound that is structurally related to a first-in-class compound, regarded as belonging to the same therapeutic class as the original compound, and used for the same therapeutic purposes, but which may differ in some respects, such as specificity of pharmacological action, adverse reactions profile, or drug-drug interactions. (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32358800/#:~:text=We%20define%)

3. A "me-too drug" is a medication that is similar to a pre-existing drug, often with minor modifications, and acts on the same target as the first drug of its kind. This differs from a generic drug (仿製藥), which is a copy of a brand-name drug with the same active ingredients, dosage, and intended use.