中國深山之中，一個核武復興正在成形（1/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Zitong Nuclear site compared (Credit: the NYT)

Deep in China’s Mountains, a Nuclear Revival Takes Shape (1/2)

Satellite imagery of secretive nuclear facilities reveals Beijing’s efforts to expand its arsenal, just as the last global guardrails on nuclear weapons vanish.

The NYT - By Chris Buckley and Agnes Chang

 Feb. 15, 2026

In the lush, misty valleys of southwest China, satellite imagery reveals the country’s accelerating nuclear buildup, a force designed for a new age of superpower rivalry.

One such valley is known as Zitong, in Sichuan Province, where engineers have been building new bunkers and ramparts. A new complex bristles with pipes, suggesting the facility handles highly hazardous materials.

Another valley is home to a double-fenced facility known as Pingtong, where experts believe China is making plutonium-packed cores of nuclear warheads. The main structure, dominated by a 360-foot-high ventilation stack, has been refurbished in recent years with new vents and heat dispersers. More construction is underway next to it.

Above the Pingtong facility entrance, a hallmark exhortation of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, appears in characters so large they are visible from space: “Stay true to the founding cause and always remember our mission.”

These are among several secretive nuclear-related sites in Sichuan Province that have expanded and undergone upgrades in recent years.

China’s buildup complicates efforts to revive global arms controls after the expiration of the final remaining nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia. Washington argues that any successor agreements must also bind China, but Beijing has shown no interest.

“The changes we see on the ground at these sites align with China’s broader goals of becoming a global superpower. Nuclear weapons are an integral part of that,” said Renny Babiarz, a geospatial intelligence expert who has analyzed satellite images and other visual evidence of the sites and shared his findings with The New York Times.

He likened each nuclear location across China to a piece of a mosaic that, seen as a whole, shows a pattern of rapid growth. “There’s been evolution at all of these sites, but broadly speaking, that change accelerated starting from 2019,” he said.

China’s nuclear expansion has been a growing source of tension with the United States. Thomas G. DiNanno, the State Department’s under secretary for arms control and international security, this month publicly accused China of secretly conducting “nuclear explosive tests” in contravention of a global moratorium. Beijing has rejected the claim as untrue, and experts have debated how strong the evidence is for Mr. DiNanno’s assertions.

China had more than 600 nuclear warheads by the end of 2024 and is on track to have 1,000 by 2030, according to the Pentagon’s latest annual estimate. China’s stockpile is much smaller than the many thousands held by the United States and Russia, but its growth is still troublesome, said Matthew Sharp, a former State Department official who is now a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“I think without a real dialogue on these topics, which we lack, it’s really hard to say where it’s going, and that, for me, is dangerous,” he said, “because now we’re forced to react and plan around the worst-case interpretation of a concerning trend line.”

(to be continued)

Translation

中國深山之中，一個核武復興正在成形（1/2）

衛星影像顯示，北京正試圖擴充其核武庫，此時，全球核武的最後一道阻止欄已不復存在。

在中國西南部翠綠、霧氣繚繞的山谷中，衛星圖像揭示了中國正在加速推進的核武庫建設，這股力量旨在應對新時代的超級大國競爭。

四川省的Zitong谷便是其中之一，工程師們正在那裡建造新的掩體和防禦工事。一個新建築群內部管道密佈，顯示該設施正在處理高危險物質。

另一個山谷中坐落著一座名為Pingtong的有雙層圍欄設施，專家認為中國正在那裡製造裝有鈽的核彈頭核心。這座以高達360英尺（約110公尺）的通風煙囪為主體的設施，近年來經過翻新，增設了新的通風口和散熱裝置。其旁邊正在進行更多建設。

在Pingtong設施入口上方，赫然醒目地鎘刻著中國領導人習近平的一句標誌性訓誡：「不忘初心，不忘使命」， 其字號之大，甚至從太空都能清晰可見。

這些設施只是四川省近年來擴建和升級的眾多秘密核子設施之一。

隨著美俄之間僅存的核武條約到期，中國的核武庫建設使得重啟全球軍控的努力變得更加複雜。華盛頓方面認為，任何後續協議都必須對中國具有約束力，但北京方面對此毫無興趣。

地理空間情報專家Renny Babiarz說道:「我們在這些地點觀察到的實際情況與中國成為全球超級大國的宏偉目標相符。核武是其中不可或缺的一部分」。他分析了衛星影像和其他相關視覺證據，並將研究結果分享給《紐約時報》。

他將中國各地的核設施比喻為合組成的圖案中的一塊，整體來看，呈現出快速發展的模式。 他說:「所有這些地點都在不斷演變，但總的來說，這種變化從2019年開始加速」。

中國的核子擴張已成為中美關係日益緊張的根源。本月，美國國務院負責軍控和國際安全的副國務卿Thomas G. DiNanno公開指責中國違反全球暫停核試驗協議，秘密進行「核爆試驗」。北京方面否認了這項指控，專家們也對DiNanno先生的說法究竟有多少證據支持展開了辯論。

根據五角大廈最新的年度估算，到2024年底，中國將擁有超過600枚核彈頭，預計在2030年達到1,000枚。麻省理工學院核安政策中心高級研究員、前國務院官員Matthew Sharp表示，中國的核武庫規模遠小於美國和俄羅斯數以千計的核彈頭，但其成長速度仍令人擔憂。

他說道:“我認為，如果我們缺乏就這些議題展開真正的對話（而這正是我們所欠缺的），就很難預測事態的發展方向，而這對我來說是危險的”，“因為現在我們不得不根據令人擔憂的趨勢線的最壞情況來做出反應和製定計劃。”

（待續）