印度如何成為世界最大經濟體之一（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

How India Became One of the World’s Biggest Economies (2/2)

India has grown rapidly despite its slow industrialization, and its economy is now nearly as big as Japan’s.

NYT - By Alex Travelli and Aaron Krolik. Alex Travelli reported from New Delhi, and Aaron Krolik from Seoul.

Feb. 27, 2026

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India is still poor. The average Japanese income is 12 times the Indian average. The average German’s is 21 times as great. Indians on average have incomes of only about $2,900 a year, and the country’s top-heavy economy means most of its citizens make far less.

The contrasts can be shocking. In India, billions of dollars are being invested to build data centers, and airports are sprouting everywhere, even as about 800 million people depend on the government for free sacks of grain.

India’s inequality leaves most of a billion people in a state of subsistence, and it hobbles the country as a whole. Social divisions deepen, it becomes harder to fund public health and education — and it gets much tougher for consumer-facing companies to turn a profit.

But for businesses like Bajaj Finserv, Mr. Bajaj estimated, the better-off 400 million Indians are a great opportunity in their own right. No other country except China has so large a group of consumers, he said.

Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister since 2014, said he intended to transform India into a fully developed country by 2047, the 100th anniversary of its independence. That won’t happen unless the country’s growth speeds up to the kind of pace China achieved earlier this century.

Since the Industrial Revolution, no other place has shot up the top-tier rankings except through the power of its factories. China, factory to the world, devotes 25 percent of its economy to manufacturing. When Mr. Modi announced a Make in India campaign in 2015, manufacturing accounted for 16 percent of the economy. Since then, it has fallen to 13 percent.

That is barely more than in the United States, which is called a postindustrial economy. As is the case in America, India’s economy is driven by its services, led by high-value work like chip design, computer engineering and office work for multinational companies, and powered by transportation and trade in goods.

The evolution of the Bajaj family business illustrates the point.

Bajaj Auto was much bigger than Bajaj Finserv when the companies split ways, but now the banking company is 50 percent larger. Finance, not factories, has been the hotter sector in India, as it is in the United States.

But Bajaj Auto has also grown, in keeping with the industrial part of India’s economy. It produces 4.5 million motorcycles and auto rickshaws a year, nearly half for export to countries like Indonesia, Egypt and Mexico.

The mixed quality of India’s economy has helped it weather storms like the financial crisis of 2008, but it also made the country vulnerable during trade negotiations with President Trump. Focused mainly on serving its own immense population, India found itself without any bargaining chips in global supply chains.

The three cities in the world with the most skyscrapers under construction in 2025 were all in India. The tallest of those buildings, however, the 56-story Palais Royale in Mumbai, is stalled, under construction since 2008. India is in a mode of making tall promises, and delivering on them sporadically.

“Directionally, India is in a very exciting place. It’s screwed up, sure, but we’re in a very interesting position for the next 10 to 15 years,” Mr. Bajaj said. Its young people, perhaps especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, he continued, are “bright, and hungry,” and before long they will become part of the world’s third-largest economy.

Translation

印度如何成為世界最大經濟體之一（2/2）

儘管工業化進程緩慢，印度仍實現了快速成長，其經濟規模如今已接近日本。

（繼續）

印度仍然很貧窮。日本人均收入是印度人的12倍，德國人均所得是印度人的21倍。印度人均年收入僅約2,900美元，而該國經濟活動結構高度過度集中於上層，導致大多數公民的收入遠低於此。

這種對比令人震驚。在印度，數十億美元正被投資用於建造數據庫，機場也如雨後春筍般湧現，同時，約有8億人依賴政府免費發放糧食。

印度的貧富差距導致十億人口中的大多數生活在勉強糊口的境地，也拖累了整個國家的發展。社會分化加劇，公共衛生和教育經費越來越難籌措，面向消費者的企業獲利也變得更加艱難。

但Bajaj先生估計，對於像Bajaj Finserv金融服務公司這樣的企業來說，四億富裕的印度人本身就是一個巨大的商機。他說，除了中國，沒有一個國家擁有如此龐大的消費族群。

自2014年以來一直擔任印度總理的莫迪表示，他計劃在2047年 - 印度獨立一百週年之際 - 將印度轉型為一個完全發達國家。除非印度的經濟成長速度能夠達到中國在本世紀初所取得的水平，否則這一目標將無法實現。

自工業革命以來，除了依靠強大的工廠力量之外，沒有一個國家能躋身世界一流經濟體之列。中國，這個“世界工廠”，其經濟的25%都用於製造業。 2015年莫迪先生宣布「印度製造」運動時，製造業佔印度經濟的16%。此後，這一比例下降至13%。

這僅略高於被稱為後工業經濟體的美國。與美國一樣，印度的經濟也以服務業為驅動，其中以晶片設計、電腦工程和跨國公司辦公服務等高附加價值工作為主導，並以貨物運輸和貿易為支撐。

Bajaj家族企業的演變就說明了這一點。

Bajaj汽車公司在分拆時規模遠大於Bajaj金融服務公司，但如今這公司的銀行的規模卻比汽車公司大了50%。正如在美國一樣，金融業而非製造業才是印度的熱門產業。

但Bajaj汽車公司也隨著印度經濟的工業化而發展壯大。該公司每年生產450萬輛摩托車和自動三輪車，其中近一半出口到印尼、埃及和墨西哥等國家。

印度經濟的複雜結構幫助其抵禦了2008年金融危機等風暴，但也使其在與特朗普總統的貿易談判中處於弱勢地位。由於主要關注服務其龐大的人口，印度在全球供應鏈中缺乏談判籌碼。

到2025年，全球在建摩天大樓最多的三個城市都位於印度。然而，其中最高的建築 - 位於孟買的56層樓高的皇家宮殿大廈（Palais Royale） - 自2008年以來一直處於停工狀態。印度似乎總是做出高遠的承諾，但兌現卻時斷時續。

Bajaj先生說: 「從發展方向來看，印度正處於一個非常令人興奮的階段。當然，它現在也存在一些問題，但在未來10到15年，我們處於一個非常有趣的境地」。他繼續說道，印度的年輕人，尤其是那些來自弱勢背景的年輕人， “聰明且渴望成功” ，他們很快就會成為世界第三大經濟體的一部分。

              So, India, the world’s fastest-growing large economy is showing an expansion at a rate of 7.5 percent last year. In early 2026 India has become the world’s fourth-largest economy, overtaking Japan. India is still poor as about 800 million people are depend on the government for free sacks of grain. The average Japanese income is 12 times the Indian average. The average German’s is 21 times as great. Indians on average have incomes of only about $2,900 a year, and the country’s top-heavy economy means most of its citizens make far less. I am interested in seeing how India will continue to expand its economy in the coming decade.

Note:

1.  A Top-heavy economy (上層經濟活動集中) is an economic structure characterized by significant concentration of wealth and resources, typically within a few sectors or among a small percentage of the population, resulting in imbalances and potential economic weaknesses. (ChatGPT)