Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:
South China Sea: why Beijing takes a low-key approach to
Vietnam but not the Philippines (1/2)
South China Morning Post - Alyssa Chen
Tue, September 3, 2024 at 2:30 a.m. PDT·8 min read
China's response to Vietnam's rapid expansion of its land reclamation in the Spratly Islands has been muted so far - a stark contrast to Beijing's increasingly assertive response to the Philippines.
Analysts said the different approaches were down to a number of factors, including the political relationship between China and Vietnam, the latter's low-key approach and the alliance between the Philippines and the United States.
But they did not rule out a tougher approach from Beijing in the future and said the issue could still cause problems.
Satellite images published by the Washington-based Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies have shown the unprecedented pace and scale of the land reclamation efforts around the islands and reefs Vietnam controls since 2021.
In May the Beijing-based Grandview Institution published an assessment of the US satellite images, saying that, as of November last year, Vietnam had added "3 sq km (1.2 sq miles) of new land, far exceeding the total construction scale over the previous 40 years".
In June, the US think tank said Vietnam was "on pace for a record year of island building in 2024", calculating that its land holdings covered seven times the area they did three years ago.
Beijing is certainly concerned by Hanoi's actions - which mirror its own decade-long drive to build artificial reefs and facilities in the areas it controls - and it has periodically issued threats to its Vietnamese partners, according to Isaac Kardon, a senior fellow for China studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
However, their growing closeness on security matters has "downgraded the issue in their bilateral diplomacy".
"China is pursuing a different type of bilateral relationship with its southern neighbour characterised by increasingly close [Communist] party-to-party ties and mutual commitment to keep their maritime disputes from displacing their wider cooperation," Kardon added.
Last month, during the visit to China by Vietnam's new leader To Lam, the two sides agreed to try to solve the dispute through "friendly consultations" and said there was a "high-level" consensus on the need to maintain peace and stability in the region.
Van Pham, founder of the South China Sea Chronicle Initiative, a Vietnam-based think tank, said Beijing wanted to work with Vietnam on infrastructure projects, including railways, and wanted its support for projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative.
"These economic connections serve as a buffer against outright hostility, encouraging China to adopt more restrained tactics," Pham said.
Ray Powell, a maritime specialist at Stanford University, said Hanoi had taken advantage of China's focus on the dispute with the Philippines to accelerate its island-building campaign.
"Hanoi has, in choosing this moment, opportunistically stolen a march on Beijing in the South China Sea," Powell said, adding that China might have paid more attention to Vietnam's activities if the Philippines had been more "compliant".
Instead, the Philippines has also been quick to highlight clashes by releasing video footage of collisions and China's use of water cannons, as well as giving maximum publicity to incidents such as a clash in which Philippine sailors, one of whom lost a thumb, were allegedly attacked by coastguard personnel armed with knives and machetes.
These incidents have led to public condemnation of China's actions from a variety of foreign governments and forced Beijing to defend its stance and try to avoid reputational damage.
Analysts also said the long-standing US-Philippine alliance and President Ferdinand Macros Jnr's efforts to strengthen the relationship with Washington were another factor in Beijing's thinking.
Last year the two allies revived a defensive pact that granted the US access to four additional bases close to strategic hotspots such as Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The Philippines has also stepped up joint exercises, both with the US and countries such as Japan, Canada and Australia.
(to be continued)
Translation
該地區幾乎所有國家都聲稱對南海擁有主權，但其連鎖反應遠遠超出了這條爭議激烈的航道。在這個由三部分組成的系列文章的第一部分中，Alyssa Chen探討了中國對與菲律賓和越南的海上爭端的反應差異。
迄今為止，中國對越南在南沙群島快速擴張填海造島活動的反應一直比較低調，這與北京對菲律賓日益強硬的反應形成鮮明對比。
儘管近幾個月來中國和菲律賓船隻在有爭議的南海島礁附近發生了幾起衝突，但沒有記錄顯示北京試圖阻止越南的活動。
分析家表示，造成這種做法不同的因素很多，包括中國和越南之間的政治關係、越南的低調做法以及菲律賓和美國之間的聯盟。
但他們不排除北京未來採取更強硬的態度，並表示這件事仍可能引發問題。
總部位於華盛頓的戰略與國際研究中心亞洲海事透明度倡議組織 發布的衛星圖像顯示，自 2021 年以來，越南控制的島嶼和礁石周圍的填海造地活動的速度和規模前所未有。
總部位於北京的Grandview研究院5月發佈了對美國衛星圖像的評估，稱截至去年11月，越南新增“3平方公里（1.2平方英里）的土地，遠遠超過了越南過去40年的總新建規模” 。
6 月，美國智庫表示，越南 “預計在 2024 年迎來創紀錄的島嶼建設年份” ，計算出其土地面積是三年前的七倍。
在卡內基國際和平基金會的中國研究高級研究員Isaac Kardon 表示，北京當然對河內的行動感到擔憂 - 這反映它模仿了中國長達十年在其控制區域建造人工礁和設施的努力 - 並且它定期向越南作出威脅。
然而，他們在安全問題上日益密切的關係「降低了雙邊外交爭議」。
Kardon補充說： “中國正在與這南方鄰國尋求一種不同類型的雙邊關係，其特點是[共產]黨與黨關係正日益密切，並共同致力於防止海上爭端損害更廣泛的合作。”
上個月，在越南新領導人To Lam訪華期間，雙方同意努力透過「友好協商」解決爭端，並表示就維護越南和平與穩定的必要性達成了「高層」共識。
越南智庫南海紀事倡議創辦人Van Pham表示，北京希望與越南在鐵路等基礎建設項目上合作，並希望越南支持「一帶一路」倡議等項目。
Van說： “這些經濟聯繫可以緩衝公開的敵意，鼓勵中國採取更加克制的策略。”
史丹佛大學海事專家Ray Powell表示，河內利用中國對與菲律賓爭端的關注來加速其造島行動。
Powell表示： “河內選擇這個時機，是在南海趁機搶了北京的先機。” 他補充說，如果菲律賓更加“順從”，中國可能會更加關注越南的活動。
相反，菲律賓也迅速發佈了碰撞影片和中國使用高壓水槍的影片片段，並最大限度地宣傳了一些事件，例如據稱菲律賓水手遭到持刀和砍刀的海岸警衛隊人員襲擊（其中一名水手失去了一根拇指）在衝突中受傷的事件。
這些事件導致多個外國政府公開譴責中國的行為，並迫使北京捍衛自己的立場, 並盡力避免聲譽受損。
分析人士還表示，長期存在的美菲聯盟, 以及小馬可斯總統加強與華盛頓關係的努力是北京考慮的另一個因素。
去年，這兩個盟國恢復了一項防禦協議，允許美國使用靠近戰略熱點例如台灣和南海等的四個額外基地。
菲律賓也加強了與美國以及日本、加拿大和澳洲等國的聯合演習。
（待續）
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