外國投資者從中國撤資創歷史新高

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Foreign Investors Pull Record Amount of Money from China

Bloomberg News

Sun, August 11, 2024 at 10:08 p.m. PDT·3 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Foreign investors pulled a record amount of money from China last quarter, likely reflecting deep pessimism about the world’s second-largest economy.

China’s direct investment liabilities in its balance of payments dropped almost $15 billion in the April-June period, marking only the second time this figure has turned negative, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released Friday. It was down about $5 billion for the first six months.

Should the decline continue for the rest of the year, it would be the first annual net outflow since at least 1990, when comparable data begins.

Foreign investment into China has slumped in recent years after hitting a record $344 billion in 2021. The slowdown in the economy and rising geopolitical tensions has led some companies to reduce their exposure, and the rapid shift to electric vehicles in China also caught foreign car firms off guard, prompting some to withdraw or scale back their investments.

The fall comes despite Beijing’s growing efforts to attract and retain foreign investment, following the smallest increase on record last year. The government wants to show it remains open and attractive to foreign businesses, in the hope that companies will bring advanced technologies and resist pressure from the US and elsewhere to decouple from China.

SAFE’s data, which tracks net flows, can reflect trends in foreign company profits, as well as changes in the size of their operations in China. Multinationals have more reason to keep cash abroad rather than in China, as advanced economies have been raising interest rates while Beijing is lowering them to stimulate the economy.

Earlier figures from the Ministry of Commerce showed that new foreign direct investment into China during the first half of the year was the lowest since the start of the pandemic in 2020.

Rising Outbound Investment

Chinese outbound investment also hit a record, with firms sending $71 billion overseas in the second quarter, up more than 80% from the $39 billion in the same period last year.

Chinese firms have been rapidly stepping up investment, with money going into projects such as electric vehicle and battery factories.

The data also showed that the anomaly in the measurement of China’s trade surplus continue to grow, hitting a record $87 billion in the second quarter and taking it to almost $150 billion for the first half of the year. That gap was highlighted by the US Treasury earlier this year in a report that called on China to clarify why the numbers were so different.

According to a recent report from the International Monetary Fund, this discrepancy “seems to be mainly caused by the different methodologies used to record exports and imports of goods.”

The gap has grown after a switch two years ago in what data the Chinese authorities were using, and was also boosted by a recent increase in production in bonded zones by foreign firms.

Translation

（彭博）—上季外國投資者從中國撤資創歷史新高，這可能反映出人們對世界第二大經濟體的深刻悲觀情緒。

中國國家外匯管理局週五公佈的數據顯示，4月至6月期間，中國國際收支中的直接投資負債減少近150億美元，這是該數字第二次出現負值。前六個月減少了約 50 億美元。

如果今年剩餘時間這種下降持續下去，這將是至少自 1990 年, 即開始有比較數據以來的首次年度淨流出。

中國的外國投資在2021 年達到創紀錄的3,440 億美元後，近年來大幅下滑。經濟放緩和地緣政治緊張局勢的加劇, 導致一些公司減風險敞口，而中國向電動汽車的快速轉變都給外國汽車公司措手不及，促使一些公司撤回或縮減投資。

在去年創下有史以來的最小增幅後，儘管北京加大力度吸引和留住外國投資，但還是出現了下降。政府希望表明對外國企業仍然開放和有吸引力，希望企業能帶來先進技術，去抗衡來自美國和其他地方與中國脫鉤的壓力。

國家外匯管理局追蹤淨流量的數據可以反映外國公司利潤的趨勢，以及它們在中國業務規模的變化。跨國公司更有理由將現金保留在國外而不是國內，因為已開發經濟體一直在提高利率，而北京方面則在降低利率以刺激經濟。

商務部先前數據顯示，上半年新增對華直接投資創2020年疫情爆發以來最低水準。

 對外投資不斷增加

中國對外投資也創下歷史新高，第二季企業海外投資達710億美元，比去年同期的390億美元成長了80%以上。

中國企業一直在迅速加大投資，資金投入電動車和電池工廠等項目。

數據也顯示，中國衡量貿易順差的異常現像持續擴大，第二季達到創紀錄的870億美元，上半年則達到近1,500億美元。美國財政部今年稍早在一份報告中強調了這一差異，呼籲中國澄清數字為何如此不同。

根據國際貨幣基金組織最近的一份報告，這種差異「似乎主要是由於記錄貨物進出口的方法不同所造成的」。

兩年前中國當局所使用的數據發生變化後，這一差距進一步擴大，而且最近外國公司保稅區產量的增加也加劇了這一差距。

              So, foreign investors pull a record amount of money from China last quarter, likely reflecting deep pessimism about the world’s second-largest economy. Probably, multinationals have more reason to keep cash abroad rather than in China, one reason is that advanced economies have been raising interest rates while Beijing is lowering them to stimulate the economy. Meanwhile Chinese outbound investments also hit a record. I am wondering which direction will the Chinese economy go in the coming years.

Note:

1. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) (國家外匯管理局) of the People's Republic of China is an administrative agency under the State Council tasked with drafting rules and regulations governing foreign exchange market activities, and managing the state foreign-exchange reserves. (Wikipedia)

2. A bonded zone (保稅區) is an area within a country where there are special trade terms or policies. Generally, arrangements for customs duties, import/export duties will differ from normal import/export procedures. For example, foreign goods can enter the region without paying duties and be kept bonded. The manufacturing and trade inside the zone can be exempted from value added and sales taxes. (https://zhenhub.com/blog/china-bonded-zones-cross-border-ecommerce/)