中國GDP增速超預期，主要得益於基礎建設支出（1/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

China’s G.D.P. Stronger Than Expected, Led by Infrastructure Spending (1/2)

A steep slide in housing prices has left consumers less prosperous and less willing to spend, but the government is pouring money into new rail lines and other projects.

By Keith Bradsher - Reporting from Beijing and Yancheng, China

April 15, 2026

Strong investments in rail lines and other infrastructure offset weak consumer spending and a shrinking trade surplus as the Chinese economy continued to grow in the first three months of the year.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday that the country’s gross domestic product grew 1.3 percent from the last three months of 2025. If that pace continues through the year, the Chinese economy will expand at an annual rate of about 5.3 percent.

In comparison with the same period last year, China’s gross domestic product was 5 percent larger in the first quarter. The figures came in slightly above economists’ forecasts for 4.8 percent growth.

One reason this year’s growth looked stronger was that the statistical agency said Thursday that the economy was weaker in the first half of last year than previously reported. That made this year’s results look better by comparison.

A long, steep slide in apartment prices has eroded China’s household savings, prompting many people to cut spending. Retail sales rose just 2.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and only 1.7 percent in March, considerably weaker than what most economists had expected. Car sales fell 17 percent in the quarter after the government scaled back subsidies that had driven a boom last year.

That sluggishness contrasts sharply with an 8.9 percent increase in infrastructure investments in the first quarter from a year ago, as spending surged on the electricity grid, sewer lines and rail lines. China has long relied on building roads, bridges, ports, and other infrastructure projects to revive a slowing economy. But rising debt, especially among local and provincial governments, is making this strategy harder to sustain.

China’s consumer services sector has been struggling. Restaurants have closed across the country, and those still open echo with empty tables. Xiao Nan Guo, a nationwide chain offering Shanghainese cuisine at premium prices, exemplifies the downturn. After peaking at 139 outlets in 2015, it quietly shuttered most of its remaining locations in early February.

Exports have propped up the Chinese economy through much of its housing slump since 2021. But this time they failed to offset broader weakness after a big surge in China’s largest category of imports, computer chips.

Weak demand at home has pushed Chinese companies to seek growth abroad. Exports grew during the first three months of this year at their fastest quarterly clip in more than four years, led by electric car exports, up 78 percent, and a 50 percent rise in shipments of lithium batteries. Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia and the Pacific at S&P Global Ratings, said overseas sales were keeping factories busy across China.

“It has been robust exports that have been a key driver of industrial production and G.D.P.,” he said.

It is unclear if export strength will last. Tariffs and rising raw material costs from the war in Iran appeared to weigh on the Chinese economy in March. Chinese officials are expected to press for relief from U.S. tariffs at a summit next month in Beijing between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader.

(to be continued)

Translation

中國GDP增速超預期，主要得益於基礎建設支出（1/2）

房價暴跌導致消費者收入減少，消費意願下降，但政府正大力投資新鐵路和其他項目

今年頭三個月，中國經濟持續增長，鐵路和其他基礎設施的強勁投資抵消了消費支出疲軟和貿易順差收窄的影響。

中國國家統計局週四公佈，2025年第四季中國國內生產毛額（GDP）季增1.3%。如果這項成長率維持到年底，中國經濟全年成長率將達到約5.3%。

與去年同期相比，中國第一季GDP成長5%，略高於經濟學家先前預測的4.8%的增幅。

今年經濟成長看起來更強勁的原因之一是，國家統計局週四表示，去年上半年的經濟疲軟程度低於先前公佈的數據。這使得今年的經濟成長數據相比之下顯得更好。

長期且大幅下跌的房價侵蝕了華人家庭的儲蓄，促使許多人削減開支。第一季零售額年增僅2.4%，3月更是只有1.7%，遠低於多數經濟學家的預期。由於政府縮減了去年推動汽車市場繁榮的補貼，本季汽車銷量下降了17%。

這種疲軟的局面與第一季基礎設施投資年增8.9%形成鮮明對比，電力網路、污水管道和鐵路建設的支出大幅增加。長期以來，中國一直依靠建設道路、橋樑、港口和其他基礎設施項目來提振放緩的經濟。但不斷上升的債務，尤其是地方和省級政府的債務，使得這項戰略難以持續。

中國消費服務業一直舉步維艱。全國各地的餐廳紛紛關門歇業，仍在營業的餐廳也門可羅雀。以高價上海菜聞名的全國連鎖餐廳小南國 (Xiao Nan Guo) 是這一頹勢的典型例子。該餐廳在2015年達到139家門市的鼎盛時期後，於今年2月初悄悄關閉了剩餘的大部分門市。

自2021年以來，出口一直是支撐中國經濟度過房地產市場低迷時期的主要力量。但這次，由於中國最大進口類別 - 電腦晶片 - 的大幅增長，出口未能抵消整體經濟的疲軟。

國內需求疲軟迫使中國企業尋求海外增長。今年前三個月，中國出口季度增長創四年多來最快，由電動車出口增長78%，鋰電池出貨量增長50%所帶動。標普全球評級亞太區首席經濟學家Louis Kuijs表示，海外銷售使中國各地的工廠保持了繁忙的生產狀態。

他說:「強勁的出口一直是工業生產和GDP的關鍵驅動力」。

出口強勁勢頭能否持續尚不明朗。 3月份，關稅以及伊朗戰爭導致的原物料成本上漲似乎對中國經濟造成了壓力。預計下個月在北京舉行的特朗普總統與中國最高領導人習近平峰會上，中國官員將敦促美國取消對華關稅。

（待續）