豬肉價格暴跌揭示中國經濟的哪些問題（2/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

What Plunging Pork Prices Say About China’s Economy (2/2)

A key measure of inflation in China, they hit a 16-year low, driven by anemic consumer spending and an oversupply of hogs.

The NYT - By Catie Edmondson - Reporting from Seoul - Li You contributed research.

May 28, 2026, 12:00 a.m. ET

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Dabeinong, another pork giant, sold more pork this year than last year but still reported a decline in profitability, citing “market conditions and fluctuations in hog prices.”

The downturn is a stark reversal from the soaring prices after the 2019 swine fever epidemic. In an attempt to lower prices and promote agricultural self-reliance — a priority championed by China’s leader, Xi Jinping — the government encouraged the construction of massive, multistory pig farms.

But now, farmers find themselves with too many hogs and not enough demand in a country that consumes half of the world’s pork.

In China, the meat is a staple in everyday meals and in dishes served at celebratory events or fancy dinners. Because it is so frequently consumed, pork is especially susceptible to the weaknesses of an economy gripped by stubborn youth unemployment, a shaky property market and a strained pension system.

Diners at restaurants have been spending less money per meal than just a few years ago, according to Canyin88, a Chinese website that collects data on the restaurant industry. Even the lavish banquets and business dinners once held by government officials have been reined in. Some local governments have barred civil servants from dining in groups of more than three, after several reports of excessive drinking at official banquets.

In a symbolic effort to reassure markets, Beijing has repeatedly bought meat for its national strategic pork reserve, an emergency government-run stockpile stored in warehouses across the country. In 2019, when pork prices skyrocketed, the government tapped those reserves to help ease grocery costs.

Beijing has also prodded local governments to buy more pork, because prices have fallen beyond the “warning zone for excessive price drops.”

And last month, during a pair of high-level meetings, including one led by Mr. Xi, officials stressed the importance of addressing “the profound shifts currently taking place in the supply-demand dynamics” of the pork industry.

The authorities have already urged farmers to reduce the pork entering the market by culling breeding sows. Regulators have also set stricter weight standards for each hog, effectively limiting the volume of meat available for sale. At the same time, the government has scaled back the subsidized loans it once offered to large-scale pig farms seeking to expand.

Those efforts, Ms. Liu said, could help stabilize prices. But without a stronger recovery in consumer demand, she didn’t expect them to rebound significantly.

“There is little to do from the demand side,” Ms. Liu said of further government interventions. “You cannot order other enterprises to purchase more pork.”

Translation

豬肉價格暴跌揭示中國經濟的哪些問題（2/2）

作為衡量中國通膨的關鍵指標，豬肉價格跌至16年來的最低點，主要原因是消費支出疲軟和生豬供應過剩

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另一家豬肉巨頭Dabeinong今年的豬肉銷量高於去年，但盈利能力仍然下降，該公司將原因歸咎於“市場狀況和生豬價格波動”。

此次價格下跌與2019年非洲豬瘟疫情後豬肉價格飆漲形成了鮮明對比。為了降低價格並促進農業自給自足 - 這是中國領導人習近平倡議的優先事項 - 政府鼓勵建造大型多層養豬場。

但如今，在這個豬肉消費量佔全球一半的國家，養殖戶們卻面臨生豬過剩而需求不足的困境。

在中國，豬肉是日常飲食的必需品，也是慶祝活動或盛大晚宴上常見的菜餚。由於消費如此頻繁，豬肉尤其容易受到經濟疲軟的影響，而中國經濟正飽受青年失業率居高不下、房地產市場動盪以及養老金體系捉襟見肘等問題的困擾。

根據收集餐飲業數據的中國網站「食音88」顯示，如今顧客在餐廳用餐的平均消費額比幾年前有所下降。就連政府官員曾經舉辦的奢華宴會和商務晚宴也受到了限制。此前，一些地方政府在官方宴會上多次出現過度飲酒的報道後，禁止公務員三人以上聚餐。

為了象徵地安撫市場，北京方面多次增購豬肉，充實其國家戰略豬肉儲備 - 這是政府運營的緊急儲備物資，儲存在全國各地的倉庫中。 2019年，豬肉價格飆升，政府動用那些儲備以緩解食品價格上漲的壓力。

由於豬肉價格已跌破“價格暴跌預警區”，北京方面也敦促地方政府增加豬肉採購量。

上個月，在包括習近平主席主持的一次會議在內的兩場高級別會議上，官員們強調了應對豬肉行業「當前供需動態的深刻變化」的重要性。

相關部門已敦促養殖戶透過淘汰繁殖母豬來減少進入市場的豬肉數量。監管機構也制定了更嚴格的生豬稱重量標準，有效限制了可供銷售的豬肉數量。同時，政府也縮減了先前向尋求擴張的大型豬場提供的補貼貸款。

Liu女士表示，這些措施可能有助於穩定價格。但如果沒有更強勁的消費需求復甦，她預計價格不會出現顯著反彈。

Liu女士在談到政府進一步幹預時表示： “從需求方面來說，能做的並不多。你不能命令其他企業購買更多豬肉。”

              So, China’s pork price decrease is more than an agricultural problem, the decline is an ominous sign for the economy. The pork industry is just another casualty of China’s economic slowdown. The property market slump is one of the reasons that is dragging down spending. Apparent, China’s economic slowdown will continue for quite a while.