世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球成長（2/2）

 Record Debt in the World’s Richest Nations Threatens Global Growth (2/2)

The cost of borrowing is already choking crucial public spending in many developing economies. Now it’s raising broader alarms.

By Patricia Cohen - Patricia Cohen, who has written frequently about debt across the world, is the global economics correspondent in London.

Jan. 27, 2026

Updated 9:34 a.m. ET

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Most countries have responded by significantly supporting Ukraine with billions of dollars and increasing military spending. Members of the North Atlantic alliance agreed to eventually devote 5 percent of their gross domestic product to defense. Japan is also substantially enlarging its military budget.

Tokyo’s debt is already staggering. It amounts to more than twice the country’s annual economic output.

The prospect of an even deeper hole grew last week when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suddenly called for a snap election. Both Ms. Takaichi’s Liberal Democrats and opposition parties are promising to increase spending and lower taxes.

Ms. Takaichi, for instance, has proposed suspending the consumption tax on food and nonalcoholic beverages, a move the Finance Ministry estimates would cost more than $30 billion annually.

For decades, Tokyo managed to fund its spending through rock-bottom interest rates that minimized borrowing costs. The Bank of Japan began to reverse its longstanding policy of ultralow interest rates in 2024.

It is moving slowly because of fears of financial instability, Mr. Rogoff of Harvard said. Japan has “stuffed debt into every orifice of the financial sector — pension funds, insurance companies, banks. And there are inflation pressures.”

The combination of low interest rates and elevated inflation particularly hurts working- and middle-income families, who see the value of their savings erode.

Ms. Takaichi’s announcement rattled investors. Bondholders quickly began selling and bond yields — interest that governments pay when they borrow money — jumped.

The uneasiness bled into other financial markets. Japanese investors are historically the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries. But higher returns from Japanese bonds could cause them to cut back on their purchase of American debt in order to take advantage of bigger yields at home.

Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to its highest level since August.

The turbulence set off alarms among some investors. Ken Griffin, chief executive of the hedge fund giant Citadel, characterized the sell-off as an “explicit warning” to other heavily indebted nations like the United States, noting that not even the world’s strongest and largest economy is immune to the risks.

Faith in U.S. creditworthiness briefly shuddered last April, when Mr. Trump’s blitz of tariff flip-flops caused Treasury yields to suddenly surge.

American bonds remain a safe haven in a risky world. Still, the president’s erratic economic policymaking and trade wars are one reason the current debt is unlike any other episode in American history, said William G. Gale, the author of “Fiscal Therapy: Curing America’s Debt Addiction and Investing in the Future.”

The U.S. national debt is now $38 trillion, roughly 125 percent the size of the American economy.

Mr. Trump has been acting like Max Bialystock in “The Producers,” promising payouts to farmers, taxpayers and bondholders with a limited pot of money. Analysts expect that the midterm elections will prompt the White House to spend even more freely in the coming year.

This month, Mr. Trump vowed to further increase military spending to $1.5 trillion dollars over the next fiscal year, which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculated would add $5.8 trillion to the national debt, including interest, over 10 years.

Net interest payments have tripled over the past five years, reaching roughly $1 trillion. They now eat up 15 percent of U.S. spending, the second biggest expense after Social Security.

Mr. Gale, who recently coauthored a study on the U.S. debt, warned that the continuing prospect of growing debt threatens the country’s role as an economic leader and undermines investor confidence in Treasury bonds and the dollar.

It also increases the burden on this generation’s children and grandchildren. As Mr. Gale explained, “the more you consume now, the less you can consume later.”

Translation

世界最富裕國家創紀錄的債務威脅全球成長（2/2）

借貸成本已經嚴重阻礙了許多發展中經濟體的關鍵公共支出。如今，這引發了更廣泛的警示。

（繼續）

大多數國家都做出了回應，向烏克蘭提供了數十億美元的援助，並增加了軍事開支。北大西洋公約組織成員國同意最終將國內生產毛額的5%用於國防。日本也大幅增加軍費預算。

東京的債務已經十分驚人，相當於全國年度經濟產出的兩倍多。

上週，高市早苗首相突然宣布提前舉行大選，這使得日本的債務問題雪上加霜。高市所在的自民黨和反對黨都承諾增加支出並降低稅收。

例如，高市提議暫停徵收食品和非酒精飲料的消費稅，根據財務省估計，此舉每年將耗資超過300億美元。

幾十年來，東京一直依靠極低的利率來維持支出，以最大限度地降低借貸成本。日本央行從2024年開始逐步扭轉其長期奉行的超低利率政策。

哈佛的Rogoff表示，由於擔心金融不穩定，日本央行的步伐較為緩慢。日本“將債務塞進了金融部門的每個角落 - 養老基金、保險公司、銀行。而且，通膨壓力仍然存在。”

低利率和高通膨的雙重打擊尤其損害了打工階層和中等收入家庭的利益，他們的儲蓄不斷縮減。

高市的聲明令投資者感到不安。債券持有人迅速開始拋售，債券殖利率（政府借款時支付的利息）飆升。

這種不安情緒蔓延至其他金融市場。日本投資者歷來是美國國債最大的外國持有者。但日本債券更高的收益可能促使他們減少購買美國國債，轉而投資殖利率更高的日本國內債券。

上週，10年期美國公債殖利率升至8月以來的最高水準。

這種動盪引發了一些投資者的警覺。對沖基金巨頭Citadel首席執行官肯Ken Griffin將此次拋售描述為對其他負債累累的國家（例如美國）的 “明確警告” ，並指出即使是世界上最強大、規模最大的經濟體也無法免受風險的影響。

去年4月，特朗普總統反覆無常的關稅政策導致美國公債殖利率突然飆升，也短暫動搖了人們對美國信用評級的信心。

美國債券在充滿風險的世界中仍然是避風港。然而，William G. Gale在其著作《財政療法：治愈美國的債務成癮並投資未來》（Fiscal Therapy: Curing America’s Debt Addiction and Investing in the Future）中指出，總統反覆無常的經濟政策和貿易戰是造成當前債務與美國歷史上任何其他事件都截然不同的原因之一。

美國國債目前高達38兆美元，約佔美國經濟規模的125%。

特朗普的行為就像電影《製片人》（The Producers）中的Max Bialystock一樣，承諾用有限的金錢向農民、納稅人和債券持有人支付開支。分析人士預計，中期選舉將促使白宮在未來一年更加肆意地支出。

本月，特朗普誓言在下一財年將軍費開支進一步增加到1.5兆美元。負責任聯邦預算委員會計算得出，這將使美國國債包括利息在未來10年內增加5.8兆美元。

過去五年，淨利息支出增加了兩倍，達到約1兆美元。如今，淨利息支出佔美國總支出的15%，位居第二，僅次於社會安全保障。

Gale近期與人合著了一份關於美國債務的研究報告。他警告說，債務持續增長的前景威脅著美國的經濟領導地位，並削弱了投資者對美國國債和美元的信心。

這也會加重這一代子孫的後代的負擔。正如Gale所解釋的， “現在消費越多，以後可以消費就越少。”

        So, last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to its highest level since August. The turbulence set off alarms among some investors and the sell-off is characterized as an “explicit warning” to other heavily indebted nations like the United States. Record or near-record debt in the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Japan has the potential to cause financial instability around the globe. The concern is that what happens if there’s a financial crisis, a pandemic or a war that requires spending a lot of money to deal with?