關稅的影響：特朗普的貿易實驗一年後（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

The Effects of Tariffs, One Year Into Trump’s Trade Experiment (2/2)

Five charts show the impact on the economy after a year of sweeping trade changes by the Trump administration.

By Ana Swanson - Ana Swanson covers international trade and reports from Washington.

Feb. 2, 2026

Updated 11:34 a.m. ET

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Mixed results for the factory sector

One goal Mr. Trump hasn’t accomplished is helping factory workers. Despite the tariffs, the manufacturing sector continued to shed jobs last year.

Many of Mr. Trump’s supporters argue that it will take time for factories to be built and this trend to be reversed. They have pointed to recent gains in industrial production and capital expenditure to suggest that the country is on the verge of a manufacturing boom because of tariffs.

But there are reasons to be skeptical. Much of the upturn in industrial production is attributable to growth in the aerospace and electronics sectors, which are among the least burdened by tariffs. For makers of cars and car parts, which have been subject to hefty tariffs, production fell last year. Some manufactures say tariffs are harming them by increasing the cost of the metal and machinery they need to run their factories.

And while spending on the construction of new factories is much higher than before the pandemic, it’s down from the end of the Biden administration, when grants to semiconductor and battery factories were encouraging construction.

There are forces other than tariffs that may be helping industries, like a boom in A.I. data center construction and new tax policies that allow companies to write off the cost of new equipment.

Tariffs have pushed up prices

Unsurprisingly, tariffs pushed up the prices of imported goods last year. Economic tracking shows that prices began climbing particularly after Mr. Trump announced sweeping global tariffs in April, reversing a trend of falling prices in previous months.

The price effects from tariffs have, however, been somewhat smaller than many originally anticipated, partly because companies have been hesitant to raise prices for fear of losing customers.

The picture for U.S. inflation has also improved, partly because of a gradual cool-down for inflation in services. But economists say it would look better without tariffs: By one estimate, the Consumer Price Index in August, which was 2.9 percent, would have been 2.2 percent without tariffs.

Beyond the economic data, many Americans remain concerned about high prices, and they have turned more skeptical of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy, which has traditionally been a strength for him.

A poll from The New York Times and Siena University in January found that 54 percent of voters oppose Mr. Trump’s tariffs, and 51 percent said the president’s policies had made life less affordable for them.

Translation

關稅的影響：特朗普的貿易實驗一年後（2/2）

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製造業喜憂參半

特朗普先生未能實現的目標之一是幫助工廠工人。儘管徵收了關稅，製造業去年仍在持續裁員。

特朗普先生的許多支持者認為，工廠的建設和這種趨勢的扭轉需要時間。他們指出，近期工業生產和資本支出的成長表明，由於關稅，美國即將迎來製造業繁榮。

但我們有理由對此持懷疑態度。工業生產的成長主要歸功於航空航太和電子產業的蓬勃發展，這兩個產業受關稅影響最小。而汽車及零件製造商由於受到高關稅的影響，去年的產量有所下降。一些製造商表示，關稅推高了工廠運作所需的金屬和機械設備的成本，損害了他們的利益。

雖然新廠的建設支出遠高於疫情前水平，但仍低於拜登政府末期的水平。當時，政府對半導體和電池工廠的補貼政策刺激了工廠建設。

除了關稅之外，還有其他因素可能也在推動產業發展，例如人工智能數據庫建設的蓬勃發展以及允許企業抵消新設備成本的新稅收政策。

關稅推高了價格

不出所料，關稅推高了去年進口商品的價格。經濟追蹤數據顯示，尤其是在特朗普總統4月宣佈在全球全面徵收關稅之後，價格開始攀升，扭轉了此前幾個月價格下跌的趨勢。

然而，關稅對價格的影響比許多人最初預期的要小一些，部分原因是企業擔心失去客戶而遲遲不願漲價。

美國通膨情勢也有所改善，部分原因是服務業通膨逐漸降溫。但經濟學家表示，如果沒有關稅，情況會更好：據估計，8月的消費者物價指數為2.9%，如果沒有關稅，則應為2.2%。

除了經濟數據之外，許多美國人仍然對高物價感到擔憂，並且對特朗普先生的經濟政策越來越持懷疑態度，而經濟政策歷來是他的強項。

《紐約時報》和錫耶納(Siena)大學1月的一項民調顯示，54%的選民反對特朗普先生的關稅政策，51%的選民表示總統的政策讓他們的生活更加難以負擔。

So, over the past year, President Trump carried out what was essentially a grand experiment with the U.S. economy by raising tariffs. The new surcharges have had a significant impact. They have caused businesses to speed up, delay and cancel purchases, or find new countries to source products from. They have raised a significant amount of revenue for the government, much of it from American businesses. And they have caused the U.S. trade deficit to shrink and prices of American goods to rise. At this moment, many Americans remain concerned about high prices and they are still skeptical of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy.