美國貿易逆差降至2009年以來最低水平，關稅重塑貿易格局

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

U.S. Trade Deficit Fell to Lowest Level Since 2009 as Tariffs Reshape Trade

The monthly trade deficit continued to shrink in October after President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports, the latest data showed.

By Ana Swanson - Ana Swanson covers international trade and reported from Washington

Jan. 8, 2026

Updated 11:08 a.m. ET

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services shrank to $29.4 billion in October, down from $48.1 billion the prior month as the Trump administration’s tariffs reshaped global trade, data from the Commerce Department showed on Thursday.

The figure was the lowest monthly trade deficit recorded since June 2009. U.S. imports have fallen while exports have remained strong, decreasing the trade deficit and seemingly accomplishing a major goal for President Trump.

But economists cautioned that some of the trend resulted from temporary fluctuations in trade in certain products, like gold and pharmaceuticals. Because of a surge in imports earlier this year, the overall trade deficit from January to October was still up 7.7 percent from the previous year.

Imports in October fell 3.2 percent to $331.4 billion from the previous month, while exports rose 2.6 percent to $302 billion. Because exports grew more than imports, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said that there was a lot of noise in the data for the month, and that gold and silver markets in particular had been “bonkers.”

Another force narrowing the trade deficit in the month was a collapse in pharmaceutical imports, he said. Drug companies stockpiled pharmaceuticals ahead of tariffs going into effect on the sector on Oct. 1, though many firms were ultimately spared from tariffs.

“Cutting through the noise and getting to the underlying signal in the data, it suggests to me that the deficit is as large as its ever been,” Mr. Zandi said.

Trade flows have fluctuated wildly this year because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. The president announced sweeping global tariffs in April, before pausing them for several months to carry out trade negotiations. Those tariffs went back into effect on Aug. 7.

On Aug. 29, the Trump administration also ended the “de minimis” exemption, which allowed foreign shipments valued at less than $800 to come into the United States tariff-free.

The administration has also imposed a variety of tariffs on products and sectors it deemed important to national security, including steel, copper and upholstered furniture. As of November, the U.S. effective tariff rate had climbed to more than 16 percent, the highest level since 1935, according to the Budget Lab at Yale, making it significantly more expensive for importers to bring goods into the country.

The Trump administration has pointed to the lower monthly trade deficits in recent months as evidence that its trade policies were working. Mr. Trump has long seen the trade deficit as a sign of an ailing American economy. He and his supporters argue that tariffs will narrow it, by boosting U.S. factory production and reducing imports.

But economists argue that bigger economic forces typically determine the size of the trade deficit, like savings rates and government spending. They have also cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from a few months of data in a particularly volatile year.

Companies imported large amounts of inventory earlier this year before tariffs went into effect, then subsequently reduced their purchases. The question for economists now is whether trade will return to more normal levels as company stockpiles go down, or if tariffs will continue to depress imports and decrease the trade deficit.

For the year through October, exports are up 6.3 percent annually, while imports have risen 6.6 percent, according to the data, which is compiled by the Census Bureau.

Tariffs could undergo more changes in the weeks to come. The Supreme Court is set to rule soon on the legality of many of the tariffs that Mr. Trump issued using a 1970s emergency law. But Trump officials have said that if those tariffs were struck down, they would use other authorities to impose new duties.

Diane Swonk, an economist at KPMG, described the monthly drop in the trade deficit as “stunning,” but said that it was largely driven by trade in gold. Investors have been buying and selling gold in part to offset uncertainty related to the tariffs this year. Gold made up nearly 90 percent of the rise in exports in October and about 13 percent of the decline in imports, she said.

Americans imported slightly more passenger cars, cellphones, toys and appliances in the month. And imports of high-tech goods remained strong because of tariff waivers for the electronics sector and the building of American data centers to feed A.I. demand, Ms. Swonk said.

The U.S. trade deficit with China continued to shrink in October, while trade deficits with Mexico, Thailand and Taiwan all hit record highs, in part reflecting A.I.-related imports.

Beyond gold and precious metals, exports of other products looked relatively weak. Shipments abroad of American aircraft, computers, soybeans and pharmaceutical goods all fell on a monthly basis in October. Soybean exports were down $3.3 billion in the year through October, as China curtailed its purchases of U.S. beans and bought from South America instead.

Translation

美國貿易逆差降至2009年以來最低水平，關稅重塑貿易格局

最新數據顯示，在特朗普總統對進口商品加徵全面關稅後，10月美國貿易逆差持續收窄。

美國商務部週四公佈的數據顯示，特朗普政府關稅政策重塑全球貿易格局的影響，10月份美國商品和服務貿易逆差收窄至294億美元，低於上月的481億美元。

這是自2009年6月以來的最低月貿易逆差。美國進口下降，而出口維持強勁，貿易逆差因此減少，似乎實現了特朗普總統的重要目標。

但經濟學家警告稱，部分趨勢是由於某些產品（如黃金和藥品）貿易的暫時性波動造成的。由於今年稍早進口激增，1月至10月的整體貿易逆差仍比去年同期上升7.7%。

10月份進口額較上季下降3.2%至3,314億美元，而出口額較上季增加2.6%至3,020億美元。由於出口上升超過進口，美國貿易逆差有所縮小。

穆迪分析公司首席經濟學家Mark Zandi表示，當月的數據有許多幹擾因素，尤其是黃金和白銀市場「異常瘋狂」。

他指出，當月貿易逆差收窄的另一個原因是藥品進口量大幅下降。製藥公司在10月1日該行業關稅生效前囤積了大量藥品，許多公司最終免於關稅。

Zandi表示： “如果能夠撥開迷霧，從數據中得出根本信號，我認為目前的貿易逆差規模與歷史最高水平相約。”

由於特朗普總統的關稅政策，今年的貿易流量波動劇烈。總統在4月宣布了一系列全球關稅措施，隨後暫停數月以進行貿易談判。這些關稅於8月7日重新生效。

8月29日，特朗普政府還取消了「最低限度」豁免，該豁免允許價值低於800美元的外國貨物免稅進入美國。

此外，特朗普政府也對一些其認為對國家安全至關重要的產品和產業徵收了多種關稅，包括鋼鐵、銅和有軟墊的家具。根據耶魯大學預算實驗室的數據，截至11月，美國的實際關稅稅率已攀升至16%以上，為1935年以來的最高水平，這使得進口商將商品進口到美國的成本顯著增加。

特朗普政府指出，近幾個月來每月貿易逆差的下降表明其貿易政策正在發揮作用。特朗普長期以來一直將貿易逆差視為美國經濟疲軟的象徵。他和他的支持者認為，關稅將透過促進美國工廠生產和減少進口來縮小貿易逆差。

但經濟學家指出，通常是有更大的經濟因素決定出貿易逆差的規模，例如儲蓄率和政府支出。他們還警告說，在今年這個經濟波動尤為劇烈的年份，僅憑幾個月的數據就得出過多結論是不妥的。

今年早些時候，在關稅生效之前，企業大量進口了庫存，隨後又減少了採購。經濟學家現在面臨的問題是，隨著企業庫存的減少，貿易是否會恢復到更正常的水平，還是關稅將繼續抑制進口並縮小貿易逆差。

根據人口普查局彙編的數據，截至10月的一年中，出口年增6.3%，進口年增6.6%。

未來幾週，關稅政策可能會有更多變化。最高法院即將就特朗普總統依據20世紀70年代的緊急法案頒布的許多關稅的合法性做出裁決。但特朗普政府官員表示，如果這些關稅被推翻，他們將動用其他權力徵收新的關稅。

KPMG會計師事務所經濟學家Diane Swonk形容10月份貿易逆差的下降“令人震驚”，但她指出，這主要是由黃金貿易推動的。投資者一直在買賣黃金，部分原因是抵消今年關稅帶來的不確定性。她說，10月份黃金出口增長佔出口成長的近90%，佔進口下降約13%。

當月，美國進口的汽車、手機、玩具和家用電器略有增加。Swonk表示，由於電子產品產業的關稅豁免以及美國為滿足人工智能需求而建造的數據中心，便高科技產品的進口依然強勁。

10月份，美國對華貿易逆差持續縮小，而對墨西哥、泰國和台灣的貿易逆差均創歷史新高，部分原因是與人工智能有關的進口。

除黃金和貴金屬外，其他產品的出口表現相對疲軟。 10月份，美國飛機、電腦、大豆和藥品的出口額均較上月下降。截至10月的一年中，大豆出口額下降了33億美元，因為中國減少了對美國大豆的採購，轉而從南美洲進口。

              So, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services shrank in October. The figure was the lowest monthly trade deficit recorded since June 2009. Such a decrease in the trade deficit seems to have accomplished a major goal for Trump. But economists point out that typically bigger economic forces determine the size of the trade deficit. They have also cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from a few months of data, especially in a volatile year.