正在有貿易順差1兆美元的中國, 向世界推銷其免稅島嶼（2/2）

China Sells the World on Its Duty-Free Island, Amid a $1 Trillion Trade Surplus (2/2)

Policies meant to lure importers to Hainan, a resort island off China’s coast, signal an opening up, Beijing says. One expert calls it a “bait and switch.”

By Andrew Higgins

Jan. 7, 2026

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Although highly restricted, the possibility of access to the Chinese market beyond Hainan is already attracting a few foreign companies that would otherwise face high tariffs trying to sell to Guangdong or other Chinese provinces.

Nesredin Hussein, a coffee merchant from Ethiopia, recently rented a warehouse near Haikou to store beans imported to the island duty-free. He plans to buy roasting equipment so he can process coffee brought into Hainan tariff-free and then ship it to other parts of China for sale without paying a tariff or tax.

“For me, this is a very good opportunity” given China’s voracious appetite for coffee, he said, noting that he would otherwise have to pay up to 30 percent in tariffs and other taxes on any beans he imported into mainland China directly. “Here the rate is zero,” he said, after a visit with his wife and three children to the Hainan branch of Harrow School, an elite British boarding school.

Less convinced is Kamthon Wangudom, an ethnic Chinese businessman from Thailand who, invited to Hainan in December to visit a village where his ancestors lived, was taken first to an exhibition center pitching the island’s investment opportunities. He said his renewable energy company in Bangkok had already invested in Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines but was staying away from China because it “is too big and too complicated.” He is skeptical the new tariff regime will change much.

Hainan likes to compare itself to Hawaii for its palm-fringed beaches and resorts; like Hawaii, it is also studded with military facilities. These include a giant naval base near the southern resort town of Sanya that has grown rapidly as China asserted its claims over the South China Sea. Mr. Xi visited Hainan in November to tout the duty-free policies. But his main purpose was to inspect the naval base and attend the commissioning of a new aircraft carrier. Mr. Xi made clear that the strategic importance of Hainan means that security interests must trump economic ambitions.

Communist Party officials have plastered Haikou with red banners praising Mr. Xi and a “new era of openness.” Yet they declined to be interviewed for this article and ordered private companies on the island not to discuss how the new tariff-free regime might help or hurt their business.

Officials have good reason to be jittery. A few days before the tariff-free system began last month, a court in Shanghai sentenced the island’s former longtime Communist Party leader, Luo Baoming, to 15 years in jail for taking more than 113 million yuan (about $16 million) in bribes over a nearly three-decade career.

Mr. Luo was the latest senior Hainan official to be sent to jail in recent years for corruption.

Hainan has a history of big plans that often disappoint, starting with its designation as China’s last but biggest Special Economic Zone in 1988, a high tide of cooperation with foreign business that has receded rapidly since Mr. Xi came to power in 2012.

Unable to match the extraordinary economic growth of rival special zones like Shenzhen, next to Hong Kong, Hainan was for years largely seen as a sunny also-ran. It built up its tourist industry, including medical tourism, and constructed new highways and high-speed railway lines. In the 1990s, it spawned a property crash on the island, the first in China under communism.

Mr. Xi first announced plans to turn Hainan into a free-trade mecca in 2018. The project began with the opening of huge duty-free malls in Haikou and Sanya. This attracted Chinese tourists looking for discounted foreign luxury brands but failed to reverse the economic fortunes of an island still scarred by the impact of the property meltdown.

Today’s development of Hainan’s free port “faces tough reality checks,” according to a study by the Asia Competitiveness Institute at the National University of Singapore. Hainan is far less successful than other Chinese Special Economic Zones and attracts relatively little direct foreign investment, the report said.

For others, however, the importance of Hainan is its role as a test ground for innovative policies that don’t rock the boat.

The free trade port experiment will allow China to try out new approaches to such things as finance, education and taxes, said Lauren Johnson, founder of New South Economics, a consultancy in Melbourne, Australia, “while concurrently protecting the status quo on the mainland.”

Translation

正在有貿易順差1兆美元的中國, 向世界推銷其免稅島嶼（2/2）

北京方面表示，旨在吸引進口商前往中國沿海度假島嶼海南的政策標誌著中國正在開放市場。一位專家稱之為「誘餌和轉變」。

（繼續）

外國公司如果試圖向廣東或其他中國省份銷售產品，將面臨高關稅。但儘管受到諸多限制，進入中國海南以外地區的市場仍可能性已經吸引了一些外國公司。

來自埃塞俄比亞的咖啡商Nesredin Hussein最近在海口附近租了一個倉庫，用於儲存免稅進口到海南的咖啡豆。他計劃購買烘焙設備，以便加工免稅運入海南的咖啡，然後將其運往中國其他地區銷售，而無需繳納關稅或稅款。

他說道:「對我來說，這是一個絕佳的機會」，並指出中國對咖啡需求巨大, 他意識到如果直接進口到中國大陸的咖啡豆將需要繳納高達30%的關稅和其他稅費。他帶著妻子和三個孩子參觀了英國精英寄宿學校哈羅公學的海南分校後說道: 「在這裡稅率是零」。

來自泰國的華裔商人Kamthon Wangudom則對此持不同看法。去年12月，他受邀前往海南探訪祖籍村莊，卻先被帶到一個推廣海南投資機會的展覽中心。他表示，他在曼谷的再生能源公司已經在台灣、日本和菲律賓投資，但一直避開中國，因為中國「太大，太複雜」。他懷疑新的關稅制度能否帶來多大改變。

海南喜歡將自己比喻為夏威夷，因為那裡有棕櫚樹環繞的海灘和度假勝地；和夏威夷一樣，海南也遍布軍事設施。其中包括位於南部度假勝地三亞附近的巨型海軍基地，隨著中國在南海問題上主張主權，基地迅速擴張。習近平主席去年11月訪問海南去宣傳免稅政策。但他此行的主要目的是視察海軍基地並出席一艘新航空母艦的服役儀式。習近平主席明確表示，海南的戰略重要性意味著安全利益必須高於經濟​​利益追求。

中共官員在海口張貼了大量讚揚習近平主席和「新開放時代」的紅色橫幅。然而，他們拒絕就本文接受採訪，並命令島上的私人企業不得討論新的免稅制度可能對其業務產生幫助或損害。

官員的擔憂不無道理。就在上個月免稅制度生效前幾天，上海法院判處海南前長期擔任中共領導人的Luo Baoming 15年有期徒刑，罪名是他在近30年的從政生涯中收受了超過1.13億元人民幣（約合1600萬美元）的賄賂。

Luo是近年來海南省因貪腐被判入獄的最新一位高級官員。

海南省歷來雄心勃勃，但往往事與願違。 1988年，海南被指定為中國最後一個也是最大的經濟特區，與外國企業的合作蓬勃發展，但自習近平2012年上台以來，這種合作勢頭迅速減弱。

由於無法與香港附近的深圳特區等競爭對手的驚人經濟成長相比，海南多年來一直被視為一個「陽光明媚的二流對手」。海南發展了旅遊業，包括醫療旅遊，並建造了新的高速公路和高鐵。在1990年代，海南爆發了房地產泡沫破裂，這是中國共產黨執政以來的第一次。

2018年，習近平首次宣佈計劃將海南打造為自由貿易中心。該計劃首先在海口和三亞開設了大型免稅購物中心。這吸引了前來尋找打折扣的外國奢侈品牌的中國遊客，但卻未能扭轉海南島的經濟命運，使其擺脫房地產崩盤帶來的創傷。

新加坡國立大學亞洲競爭力研究所的一項研究指出，海南自由港如今的發展「面臨嚴峻的現實考驗」。報告稱，海南遠不如其他中國經濟特區成功，吸引的外國直接投資也相對較少。

然而，對其他人來說，海南的重要性在於它能夠作為創新政策的試驗場，而又不會引發動盪。

澳洲墨爾本顧問公司新南威爾斯經濟諮詢公司創辦人Lauren Johnson表示，自由貿易港的試點將使中國能夠在金融、教育和稅收等領域嘗試新的方法，「同時又能維持大陸的現狀」。

So, most foreign goods can flow freely into Hainan now. But those imports are not allowed to leave the island for other parts of the country unless stringent conditions are met. These policies are meant to prevent the tariff-free imports to Hainan from seeping into other parts of the country, where high tariffs remain in force. Goods imported to Hainan cannot be shipped to other parts of China duty-free unless they have been processed in ways that increase their value by at least 30 percent. Although highly restricted, the possibility of access to the Chinese market beyond Hainan is already attracting a few foreign companies that would otherwise face high tariffs trying to sell to Guangdong or other Chinese provinces. I am interested in knowing whether this experiment will succeed.