特朗普的關稅為何沒有產生更大的影響？(2/2)

Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Had a Bigger Impact? (2/2)

Steep import taxes have raised prices and affected U.S. businesses, but not quite as much as expected. A new report offers some reasons.

By Ana Swanson

Jan. 3, 2026

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Because U.S. tariffs were low overall in the past, many companies had not bothered to declare that their goods were compliant with the trade pact when filing customs forms. But in 2025, roughly 90 percent of goods coming from Canada and Mexico were declared to be compliant, up from less than 50 percent the previous year.

Tariff evasion has also reduced the actual tariff rate that companies pay. Companies can pursue a variety of strategies, many of them illegal, to alter the information on customs forms about a product’s content, value or origin and pay a lower tariff than they are supposed to.

As concerns about affordability grow, the Trump administration may offer more exemptions and delays to planned tariffs. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump issued an executive order to delay a planned increase in tariffs on vanities, kitchen cabinets and upholstered furniture for one year. The Commerce Department has also pulled back on a preliminary plan to impose tariffs on some Italian pasta imports, saying some pasta makers had addressed U.S. concerns about unfair practices. A final decision is expected in March.

Who pays the tariff?

This phenomenon does not mean that tariffs don’t burden U.S. companies and consumers. The researchers demonstrated that Americans were bearing the cost of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, in contrast to what he and his advisers have claimed.

When the United States imposes a tariff, it’s the importer of record — usually a U.S. business — that must pay that money to the government. But who really bears the full cost of the tariff is a different question. The foreign factories that export products to the United States could absorb the cost if they reduce the prices they charge to American buyers to offset the tariff.

This is what the Trump administration argued would happen. But Ms. Gopinath and her co-author, Brent Neiman of the University of Chicago, calculated that U.S. importers, not foreign suppliers, were bearing the bulk of the cost. They estimated that 94 percent of tariff costs were “passed through” to U.S. firms in 2025. That compared with about 80 percent in 2018-19, when Mr. Trump imposed many tariffs on China.

Economists have only a few months of data with tariffs fully in effect, so much more will be known over the next year. But the tariffs have been significantly reshaping global trade. For example, China’s share of U.S. imports collapsed to 8 percent in late 2025, down from 22 percent at the end of 2017.

U.S. consumers and manufacturers are also paying higher costs. A working paper published in November by economists at Harvard Business School and elsewhere found that tariffs had pushed up the price of imported goods by roughly twice as much as domestic ones.

Ms. Gopinath and Mr. Neiman also traced the effect of tariffs on U.S. manufacturers, which often depend on foreign parts and metals. They found that companies making heavy-duty trucks, construction vehicles, cars and car parts, agricultural implements, and oil and gas machinery were among the most affected by higher tariffs.

“The logic was if foreign firms wished to sell to the mightiest consumer market in the world, they would have to pay a price,” Ms. Gopinath said. “In reality, the price has been borne by U.S. firms, and not by foreign firms.”

Translation

特朗普的關稅為何沒有產生更大的影響？(2/2)

高額進口關稅推高了物價，影響了美國企業，但其影響程度卻不如預期。一份新的報告對此給了一些解釋。

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由於過去美國關稅總體較低，許多公司在提交海關申報單時並未費心申報其商品符合貿易協定。但到2025年，來自加拿大和墨西哥的商品中約有90%受申報協議規定，這高於前一年的少於50%。

逃稅行為也降低了企業實際繳納的關稅稅率。企業可以採取各種策略（其中許多是非法的）來篡改海關申報單上關於產品成分、價值或原產地的信息，從而繳納低於應繳的關稅。

隨著人們對商品價格承受能力的擔憂日益加劇，特朗普政府可能會對計劃中的關稅提供更多豁免和延期。週三，特朗普簽署了一項行政命令，將原計劃對梳妝台、櫥櫃和軟墊家具提高的關稅推遲一年。美國商務部也撤回了對部分意大利麵進口產品徵收關稅的初步計劃，並表示一些意大利麵生產商已就美國方面提出的不公平貿易行為的擔憂作出回應。最終決定預計3月公佈。

誰來繳關稅？

這種現象並不意味著關稅不會給美國企業和消費者帶來負擔。研究人員證明，與特朗普及其顧問的說法相反，美國民眾正在承擔特朗普關稅的成本。

當美國徵收關稅時，登記進口商 - 通常是美國企業 - 必須向政府支付這筆費用。但究竟誰承擔了關稅的全部成本，則是另一個問題。如果向美國出口產品的外國工廠降低向美國買家的售價以抵銷關稅，那麼這些成本就由它們自己承擔。

這正是特朗普政府所聲稱的情況。但Gopinath女士及其合著者、芝加哥大學的Brent Neiman算得出，承擔大部分成本的是美國進口商，而非外國供應商。他們估計，到2025年，94%的關稅成本將「轉嫁」給美國企業。相較之下，在2018-2019年特朗普對中國加徵多項關稅期間，這一比例約為80%。

經濟學家目前只有幾個月的關稅全面生效後的數據，因此未來一年將會有更多資訊公佈。但關稅已經顯著重塑了全球貿易格局。例如，到2025年底，中國在美國進口中所佔的份額驟降至8%，而2017年底這一比例為22%。

美國消費者和製造商也正在承擔更高的成本。哈佛商學院和其他機構的經濟學家在11月發表的工作論文中發現，關稅使進口商品的價格上漲幅度, 約為國內商品的兩倍。

Gopinath女士和Neiman也追蹤了關稅對美國製造商的影響，這些製造商通常依賴進口零件和金屬。他們發現，重型卡車、工程車輛、汽車及零件、農具以及石油和天然氣機械製造商受高關稅的影響最大。

Gopinath說: 「在邏輯上，如果外國公司想向全球最大的消費市場銷售產品，就必須付出代價」; 「但實際上，這個代價是由美國公司承擔的，而不是外國公司」。

So, the effects of Trump’s taxes increase have not been felt as strongly as some experts predicted. Economists explain that the tariff rate importers have paid is significantly lower than the tariff figures that Mr. Trump announced. The reasons include exemptions for certain countries and industries, rates are lowered for some goods by the time they arrive in the U.S., and evasion of the rules by some companies. At the same time, some researchers have demonstrated that Americans are bearing the cost of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, in contrast to what he and his advisers have claimed.