中國投資在11月大幅下滑後，逼近30年來首次出現年度下降

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

China Nears First Investment Decline in 3 Decades After Sharp Monthly Drop

A broad measure of investment fell more than 10 percent in November, continuing a recent reversal and signaling the depth of China’s property crisis.

By Daisuke Wakabayashi (Daisuke Wakabayashi, the Asia business correspondent, reported from Seoul.)

Dec. 15, 2025, 1:21 a.m. ET

Investment in China slowed drastically in November, propelling the country closer toward its first annual decline in more than three decades.

Investment for housing, public infrastructure and manufacturing fell 2.6 percent from January through November, marking another month of sharp decline in so-called fixed-asset investment, China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday. The research firm Capital Economics estimated that investment fell 11.1 percent in November from a year earlier, a second straight month of double-digit declines over 2024.

The November drop puts China on the brink of a historic slowdown in investment. For more than 30 years, as China’s economy grew by leaps and bounds, investment in buildings, public works and factories had increased every year since the late 1980s.

The pullback, which began in the second half of this year, signals growing caution about the Chinese economy.

Investment in real estate, once considered a pillar of China’s growth, continued to drop precipitously last month. Investment in public infrastructure and manufacturing also fell, as all three main components of fixed-asset investment declined.

It is unusual for investment to decline across all three segments, indicating the confluence of problems affecting the Chinese economy. China is dealing with an entrenched real estate crisis that has shaken confidence. Because of the property slump, local governments lack the funds to plow money into public works projects. And Beijing’s efforts to curb excessive competition, which is harming even China’s fast-growing industries, have slowed investment in new factories.

In a news conference on Monday, Fu Linghui, the spokesman and chief economist of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said that while the overall figure was down, investment in key areas such as clean energy technology continued to grow, laying the foundation for medium- to long-term growth.

Chinese officials have signaled that stabilizing investment and reversing the downturn are policy priorities for the coming year.

“Policy support should help drive a partial recovery in the coming months, but this probably won’t prevent China’s growth from remaining weak across 2026 as a whole,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Monday.

In addition to investment, China reported other indicators pointing to continued economic sluggishness. Retail sales, a measure of consumer spending, rose 1.3 percent, the slowest pace in almost three years.

The property sector continued to receive worrying news, reinforcing the view that the real estate collapse shows no signs of abating. China Vanke, one of the country’s largest property developers, failed to win approval of a plan to delay repaying a bond that was due on Monday, moving the company closer to default.

In a Monday filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Vanke stated that it has a “grace period” of five working days after failing to make a payment on time. It said it plans to convene another meeting of bondholders during that time.

Translation

中國投資在11月大幅下滑後，逼近30年來首次出現年度下降

11月份，一項衡量投資的綜合指標下降超過10%，延續了近期的下滑趨勢，也凸顯了中國房地產危機的嚴重程度。

11月份中國投資大幅放緩，使該國距離30多年來的首次年度下降更近一步。

中國國家統計局週一公佈的數據顯示，11月住房、公共基礎設施和製造業投資年減2.6%，標誌著所謂固定資產投資連續第二個月大幅下滑。研究公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics) 估計，投資在11月較去年同期下降了11.1%，這是連續第二個月出現超過2024年的兩位數降幅。

11月份的下滑使中國投資瀕臨歷史性放緩的邊緣。過去三十多年來，隨著中國經濟快速發展，自1980年代末期以來，建築、公共工程和工廠的投資逐年成長。

今年下半年開始的投資回落，預示著人們對中國經濟的擔憂日益加劇。

房地產投資曾被視為中國經濟成長的支柱，但上個月繼續大幅下滑。公共基礎設施和製造業的投資也出現下降，固定資產投資的三大組成部分都出現下滑。

這三大領域的投資同時下降實屬罕見，顯示中國經濟正面臨多重問題的交織。中國正經歷一場根深蒂固的房地產危機，這場危機動搖了人們的信心。由於房地產市場低迷，地方政府缺乏資金投入公共工程項目。此外，北京為遏止過度競爭而採取的措施，甚至損害了中國快速成長的產業，也減緩了對新工廠的投資。

週一，中國國家統計局發言人兼首席經濟學家Fu Linghui在新聞發布會上表示，儘管整體投資額有所下降，但清潔能源技術等重點領域的投資持續增長，為中長期增長奠定了基礎。

中國官員已發出訊號，穩定投資、扭轉經濟下滑趨勢是未來一年的政策重點。

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)中國經濟學家Zichun Huang週一在一份報告中寫道:「政策支持應有助於推動未來幾個月經濟出現部分復甦，但這可能無法阻止中國經濟在2026年全年持續疲軟」。

除投資外，中國公佈的其他指標也顯示經濟持續低迷。衡量消費支出的零售銷售成長1.3%，為近三年來最低增速。

房地產產業持續傳來令人擔憂的消息，進一步印證了房地產市場崩盤仍未見緩和跡象的觀點。中國最大的房地產開發商之一萬科未能獲得批准，推遲償還原定於週一到期的債券，這使得該公司距離違約更近一步。

萬科週一向香港聯交所提交的文件顯示，公司在未能按時付款後享有五個工作日的「寬限期」。該公司表示，計劃在此期間再次召開債券持有人會議。

              So, in China investment in housing, public infrastructure and manufacturing fell, marking another month of sharp decline in so-called fixed-asset investment. In addition to investments, retail sales, a measure of consumer spending, rose 1.3 percent, the slowest pace in almost three years. Apparently, all economic indicators are pointing to a slowing Chinese economy.