中國隨著投資下滑加劇，經濟正經歷歷史性轉變（2/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Historic Shift Underway in China’s Economy as Investment Slump Deepens (2/2)

Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure and property is expected to fall this year, a remarkable turn for an economy whose growth reshaped the world.

By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Amy Chang Chien

Dec. 12, 2025

(continue)

Chien Ting-tsai, who has run a manufacturing and real estate development company in Zhuhai, a city in southern China, for more than three decades, said customers are not expanding their businesses now because the economy is weak. He said the pipeline of design contracts has thinned dramatically.

 “Some manufacturers have shut down factories and frozen all investment in new facilities,” said Mr. Chien, 69, who is from Taiwan and has worked in China since the 1990s. “Everyone is frantically selling off fixed assets because they’re uncertain about the future.”

 Pam Jiang, a sales assistant at Fashiontex International Limited, a textile company with roughly 150 employees in Jiangsu Province, one of China’s main fabric manufacturing hubs, said the domestic textile industry is pulling back on investments in facilities.

“The textile industry in China is basically stagnant and downsizing,” she said.

She attributed the drop in investment to rising labor costs and uncertainty about tariffs. Instead of expanding domestically, Ms. Jiang said, many Chinese textile manufacturers are investing abroad in countries such as Vietnam and Egypt.

The slowdown in manufacturing investment has coincided with the government’s campaign against involution, a term for the ruthless competition in which Chinese companies wage profit-eroding price wars to gain market share and outlast rivals. Provincial or city governments have often fueled such races to the bottom by providing incentives and support to foster local champions. This produced an oversupply of well-funded companies, each ready to add more products than customers want to buy.

But some economists say Beijing’s efforts to slow that process down have given local governments permission to hold back on throwing money at manufacturing.

Jeremy Smith, a research analyst at Rhodium Group’s China practice, said he believes local governments might be taking Beijing’s cue. He noted that fixed-asset investment has declined in nearly all of China’s provinces and prefectural-level cities since May.

The downturn in investment numbers, he said, more accurately reflects what Rhodium had suspected following the collapse of the property sector.

Rhodium has reported that China’s investment activity likely fell in 2023 and 2024, based on other economic signals, such as credit growth. Due mainly to slower investment, Rhodium estimated that China’s economic growth was between 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent last year, well short of the government’s official figure of 5 percent.

“Declining investment is more the norm than the exception,” Mr. Smith said.

On the one hand, he said, Beijing seeks to project an image of economic resilience. At the same time, it aims to demonstrate that it is curbing the harmful competition plaguing many of its industries.

A slump does not bode well for China’s economic growth, as investment accounts for a significant share of gross domestic product. Yet the broader measure of investment China uses to calculate G.D.P. rose in the third quarter despite the sharp decline in fixed-asset investment, leaving economists scrambling for how to explain the discrepancy.

In a November report, Goldman Sachs said it does not expect fixed-asset investment to weigh on economic growth because the decline is “overstated.” The investment bank said that most of the downturn is “a statistical correction of previously overreported data” rather than a genuine slowdown.

Last month, Fu Linghui, the spokesman and chief economist of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, attributed the decline to a “complex and severe external environment” and “fierce domestic competition” that has hurt investment returns and dragged down corporate profitability.

He noted, however, that investment in high-tech industries such as green energy and aerospace is growing rapidly, a sign that overall investment might be slowing but is also “optimizing.”

Economic Daily, a Chinese state-owned newspaper, said in November that the country has entered into a new, high-quality phase of development, echoing official talking points. It accused foreign media of seizing on the investment stall to sensationalize a “crisis theory” about the Chinese economy.

Translation

中國隨著投資下滑加劇，經濟正經歷歷史性轉變（2/2）

今年製造業、基礎設施和房地產領域的投資預計將出現下滑，這對於一個曾經以成長重塑世界格局的經濟體而言，無疑是一個顯著的轉變

（繼續）

在中國南方的一座城市珠海經營製造業和房地產開發公司超過三十年的Chien Ting-tsai表示，由於經濟疲軟，客戶目前並未擴大業務。他還表示，設計合約的數量已大幅減少。

現年69歲來自台灣, 由1990年代起就在中國工作的Chien先生說:「一些製造商已經關閉工廠，並凍結了所有新設施的投資」; 「每個人都在瘋狂拋售固定資產，因為他們對未來感到不確定」。

Pam Jiang女士是江蘇省一家名為Fashiontex International Limited的紡織公司的銷售助理，該公司擁有約150名員工。江蘇省是中國主要的紡織品生產中心之一。Pam Jiang女士表示，國內紡織業正在縮減對工廠的投資。

她說:「中國的紡織業基本上處於停滯狀態，並且正在縮減規模」。

她將投資下降歸因於勞動成本上升和關稅的不確定性。Jiang女士說，許多中國紡織製造商沒有選擇在國內擴張，而是將投資轉向越南和埃及等國家。

製造業投資放緩恰逢政府展開反壟斷運動。所謂“反壟斷”，指的是中國企業為了爭奪市場份額和擊敗競爭對手，展開殘酷的價格戰，導致利潤大幅下降。省市政府常常透過提供激勵措施和支援去扶持地方優勝者，加劇這種惡性競爭。這導致大量資金雄厚的企業湧現，這些企業都預備生產出遠超越消費者所需的產品。

但一些經濟學家表示，北京方面正放緩經濟成長的努力，實際上「允許」地方政府減少對製造業投入金資金。

Rhodium集團中國業務研究分析師Jeremy Smith表示，他認為地方政府可能正在領會到北京的提示。他指出，自5月以來，中國幾乎所有省份和地級市的固定資產投資都出現了下滑。

他表示，投資數據的下降更準確反映了Rhodium集團在房地產市場崩盤後所做出的預測。

Rhodium集團先前曾報告稱，根據信貸成長等其他經濟指標，中國2023年和2024年的投資活動可能出現下滑。Rhodium集團估計，由於投資成長放緩，中國去年的經濟成長率介於2.4%至2.8%之間，遠低於政府公佈的5%的官方數據。

Smith表示： “投資下降已成為一種常態而非一個例外。”

他表示，一方面，北京力圖展現經濟韌性。同時，它也希望藉此表明正在遏制困擾其許多行業的有害競爭。

投資下滑對中國經濟成長並非好兆頭，因為投資在國內生產毛額（GDP）中佔有相當大的比重。然而，儘管固定資產投資大幅下降，中國用於計算GDP的更廣泛投資指標在第三季卻有所增長，這令經濟學家絞盡腦汁地解釋這一矛盾現象。

高盛在11月的報告中表示，預計固定資產投資不會拖累經濟成長，因為其下降幅度被「誇大了」。這家投資銀行指出，大部分下滑是“對先前高估數據的統計修正”，而非真正的經濟放緩。

上個月，中國國家統計局發言人兼首席經濟學家Fu Linghui將投資下滑歸咎於“複雜嚴峻的外部環境”和“激烈的國內競爭”，認為這損害了投資回報，拖累了企業盈利能力。

但他同時指出，綠色能源和航空航太等高科技產業的投資正在快速成長，顯示整體投資成長可能放緩，但也在進行「優化」。

中國官方媒體《經濟日報》11月通報稱，中國已進入高品質發展的新階段，與官方論點相呼應。該報指責外國媒體抓住投資停滯不前大肆渲染中國經濟的「危機論」。

So, this year, China’s investments in assets like new factories, public infrastructure and housing are expected to fall for the first time since the late 1980s, ushering in a more conservative era for an economy that has reshaped the global order with years of robust growth. Last month, the chief economist of China’s National Bureau of Statistics attributed the decline to a “complex and severe external environment” and “fierce domestic competition” that hurt investment returns and dragged down corporate profitability. I am interested in knowing how the China’s economy will behave in the coming year.