中國隨著投資下滑加劇，經濟正經歷歷史性轉變（1/2）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

Historic Shift Underway in China’s Economy as Investment Slump Deepens (1/2)

Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure and property is expected to fall this year, a remarkable turn for an economy whose growth reshaped the world.

By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Amy Chang Chien

Dec. 12, 2025

For the past three decades, as China’s economy has developed into a global powerhouse, investment has grown reliably each year.

That is about to change. This year, China’s investments in assets like new factories, public infrastructure and housing are expected to fall for the first time since the late 1980s, ushering in a more conservative era for an economy that has reshaped the global order with years of robust growth.

The shift also signals that investing in China is no longer a surefire bet, even as Beijing continues to project confidence with economic growth estimates of 5 percent. But, as is often the case with the country’s economic data, the investment slump has raised more questions than answers.

A real estate crisis in China has dragged on for five years with no end in sight, sapping the strength from one of the economy’s pillars. Local governments, strapped for cash because of the property downturn, are not pouring money into infrastructure projects as they did during previous periods of economic malaise. Beijing’s crackdown on excessive competition among Chinese manufacturers has chilled the climate for capital investment to fuel expansion.

From January to October, a broad measure called fixed-asset investment has fallen 1.7 percent from the same period last year. The slide began in the second half of this year and accelerated with a sharp, double-digit decline in October. Analysts believe that investment dipped again in November, with that data scheduled to be released on Monday.

Investment in property, infrastructure and manufacturing — the three major components that make up the figure — are all declining at the same time. In the past, a downturn in one area was offset by spending in another segment. It is rare for all three pillars of investment to fall at once. The government typically has stepped in to manage downturns by bolstering real estate or spending lavishly on infrastructure. Beijing has been reluctant to act boldly this year to help.

“This is a historically significant change,” said Dan Wang, a director on Eurasia Group’s China team. “This is a different style of managing the economy in the short term.”

Ms. Wang said that this more passive approach suggests Chinese leaders are confident in the continued strength of exports, which have fueled a record trade surplus despite rising protectionism and growing global concern about the flood of inexpensive Chinese goods.

Instead of pumping money into the economy by building more airports and high-speed railroad stations, highways and bridges, local governments are holding back. And for the property sector, there has been no industrywide bailout or comprehensive plan to spur real estate investment.

The investment drought is playing out urgently in the boardrooms of China Vanke, one of the country’s largest property developers, which is now teetering on the edge of possible financial collapse.

Vanke, unable to pay its debts, has leaned on its top shareholder, the state-owned firm Shenzhen Metro, to cover its debt obligations. But last month it asked bondholders to delay repayment of a bond for the first time, signaling that state financial support may have reached its limit. A deadline on some of its debt looms on Monday, and Vanke may need creditors to accept a delay in getting paid.

Chinese officials have started to show some alarm at the plunge in investment, which was listed as a policy priority for 2026 in a plan announced on Thursday by Xi Jinping, China’s top leader.

The deep problems in the property sector — too many apartments and long-running drops in their value — have shaken business confidence.

(to be continued)

Translation

中國隨著投資下滑加劇，經濟正經歷歷史性轉變（1/2）

今年製造業、基礎設施和房地產投資預計將出現下滑，這對於一個曾經以強勁成長重塑世界格局的經濟體而言，無疑是一個顯著的轉變。

過去三十年來，隨著中國經濟發展成為全球經濟強國，投資額每年都穩定增長。

但這種情況即將改變。預計今年中國對新建工廠、公共基礎設施和住房等資產的投資將出現自上世紀80年代末以來的首次下滑，這標誌著這個曾以多年強勁增長重塑全球秩序的經濟體，即將步入一個更為保守的時代。

這項轉變也顯示，即便北京方面仍對5%的經濟成長預期充滿信心，投資中國也不再是穩賺不賠的買賣。但正如經常出現於該國經濟數據的情況一樣，投資低迷所引發的問題遠多於答案。

中國的房地產危機已持續五年之久，至今仍未見盡頭，嚴重削弱了經濟支柱產業之一的活力。由於房地產市場低迷，地方政府資金緊張，不像以往經濟低迷時期那樣大力投資基礎建設項目。北京對中國製造業過度競爭的打擊，也抑制了以資本投資去推動經濟擴張的氛圍。

今年1月至10月，一項名為固定資產投資的綜合指標較去年同期下降1.7%。下滑趨勢始於今年下半年，並在10月加速，出現兩位數的急遽下降。分析師認為，11月的投資再次下滑，相關數據將於週一公佈。

構成固定資產投資的三大主要組成部分 - 房地產、基礎設施和製造業的投資 - 都出現同步下降。過去，某一領域的下滑通常會被其他領域的支出所抵銷。三大投資支柱同時下滑的情況實屬罕見。政府通常會透過扶持房地產或大力投資基礎設施來應對經濟下滑。但今年，北京方面一直不願採取大膽的措施來扶持經濟。

歐亞集團中國團隊總監Dan Wang表示:“這是一個具有歷史意義的重大轉變”，“這是一種不同的短期經濟管控方式。”

Wang女士指出，這種更被動的做法表明，中國領導人對出口的持續強勁增長充滿信心。儘管保護主義抬頭，全球對中國廉價商品湧入市場日益擔憂，但出口仍推動了中國創紀錄的貿易順差。

地方政府並沒有像以往那樣建造更多機場、高鐵站、高速公路和橋樑來刺激經濟，而是選擇按兵不動。對於房地產行業，政府既沒有推出行業全面的救助計劃，也沒有制定刺激房地產投資的綜合方案。

投資匱乏的困境正在中國萬科的董事會中迅速顯現。它是中國最大的房地產開發商之一, 這家公司目前正處於可能破產的邊緣。

萬科無力償還債務，只能依靠其最大股東 - 國營企業深圳地鐵 - 來承擔債務。但上個月，萬科首次要求債券持有人延期償還債券，顯示國家財政支持可能達到極限。部分債務的最後期限是週一，萬科可能需要債權人接受延期付款。

中國官員已開始對投資暴跌表示擔憂。中國最高領導人習近平週四宣布的2026年發展計畫中，將投資列為重點政策。

房地產行業的深層問題 - 公寓過剩和房價長期下跌 - 動搖了商業信心。

（待續）