人工智能熱潮正在推動經濟發展。如果它失敗會怎樣？ （2/3）

Recently the New York Times reported the following:

The A.I. Boom Is Driving the Economy. What Happens if It Falters? (2/3)

A windfall for companies that build data centers and their suppliers is overshadowing weakness in other industries.

By Ben Casselman and Sydney Ember

(continue)

Lower-income households haven’t seen the benefit of the stock-market run-up. But they could still be hurt by its reversal. If wealthy Americans spend less on restaurant meals, vacations and luxury goods, that could lead to job losses in the service sector.

“If you see a pullback in spending in leisure, in hospitality, in that top cohort, that has knock-on effects,” said Michael Reid, an economist at RBC Capital Markets. “That’s where I wonder about a downward spiral in the labor market.”

Ripple Effects

For now, the boom — and its lift to the broader economy — shows little sign of letting up. U.S. companies spent more than $60 billion on computer equipment in the second quarter, up 45 percent from a year earlier. They spent another $10 billion on data center construction, up 35 percent. Artificial intelligence probably accounts for most of that growth, economists and industry experts say.

Those investments are rippling outward, propping up pieces of the economy outside the traditional technology sector. Caterpillar, typically associated with its bulldozers and backhoes, has seen a surge in sales of its turbines and power-generation equipment, which are used in data centers. Johnson Controls, another industrial conglomerate, has benefited from demand for its cooling and fire-suppression systems. Eaton Corp., which makes power-management systems, has a growing backlog of projects waiting for its equipment.

The companies are betting on that growth to continue. Eaton is investing more than $1 billion to expand its manufacturing capacity to meet soaring demand, and this month it said it was spending $9.5 billion to acquire Boyd Thermal, which makes cooling equipment used in data centers.

“We are in the very early innings of the A.I. build out,” Paulo Ruiz, the chief executive officer of Eaton, said in an interview.

The two-track nature of the economy is especially clear in the construction industry, which has been battered by high interest rates and tariffs. Nonresidential construction spending fell in August, continuing its downward trend. Home building is well below its pandemic-era peak.

Yet even as the construction industry’s momentum has stalled, data center construction has swelled. That has also fueled the construction of infrastructure required to power the data centers and distribute information. The American Cement Association released a report in June that estimated that A.I. data centers would use approximately one million metric tons of cement over the next three years.

Data center construction is “the only real driver of nonresidential construction spending growth in America,” said Anirban Basu, the chief economist at Associated Builders and Contractors, a trade group.

“If one is looking for what’s growing nonresidential spending, it’s data centers and attendant investment in power generation and distribution,” he said.

The surge has also buoyed the contractors who work on the components of data centers. Associated Builders and Contractors recently said that about one in seven of its members were under contract to work on data centers.

Chuck Goodrich, the chief executive of Gaylor Electric, an electrical contractor based in Indianapolis, said 50 to 60 percent of his business was now tied to data center construction. He estimated Gaylor Electric’s revenue would increase about 30 percent this year, to $1 billion, and grow another 20 percent next year, largely because of the frenzy around data centers.

“From a biblical perspective, we happen to be living the life of abundance,” he said.

(to be continued)

Translation

人工智能熱潮正在推動經濟發展。如果它失敗會怎樣？（2/3）

數據中心建設公司及其供應商獲得的意外之財掩蓋了其他行業的疲軟。

（繼續）

低收入家庭尚未享受股市上漲的好處。但股市的逆轉仍可能對他們造成損害。如果富裕的美國人減少在餐廳用餐、度假和奢侈品上的支出，可能會導致服務業的失業。

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場經濟學家Michael Reid表示。「如果你看到休閒娛樂、酒店服務以及高收入人群的支出減少，這將產生連鎖反應」; 「我擔心勞動力市場會出現螺旋式下滑」。

連鎖反應

目前來看，這股熱潮 - 及其對整體經濟的提振作用 - 似乎沒有減弱的跡象。美國企業第二季在電腦設備上的支出超過600億美元，較去年同期成長45%。此外，他們在數據中心建設方面的支出也高達100億美元，年增35%。經濟學家和產業專家表示，人工智能可能是推動這一成長的主要因素。

這些投資正向外向外擴散，支撐著傳統科技業以外的其他經濟領域。通常以推土機和挖土機聞名的Caterpillar公司，其用於數據中心的渦輪機和發電設備的銷售也出現了激增。另一家工業集團Johnson Controls則受惠於對其冷卻和消防系統的需求。生產電源管理系統的Eaton Corp也積壓了大量等待其設備的訂單。

這些公司都押注這種成長動能將持續下去。Eaton公司正在投資超過10億美元擴大產能以滿足不斷增長的需求，本月宣布將斥資95億美元收購Boyd Thermal公司，該公司生產用於數據中心的冷卻設備。

Eaton公司執行長Paulo Ruiz在一次採訪中表示： “我們正處於人工智能建設的初期階段。”

經濟的雙軌特徵在建築業尤為明顯，該行業受到高利率和關稅的重創。 8月非住宅建築支出下降，延續了下滑趨勢。住宅建設遠低於疫情期間的高峰。

然而，即便建築業的成長勢頭停滯，數據中心建設卻蓬勃發展。這也推動了為數據中心供電和資訊傳輸所需的基礎設施建設。美國水泥協會6月發佈的報告估計，未來三年人工智能數據中心將消耗約100萬噸水泥。

美國建築承包商協會（Associated Builders and Contractors）首席經濟學家Anirban Basu表示，數據中心建設是「美國非住宅建築支出成長的唯一真正驅動力」。

他說:「如果要尋找非住宅支出成長的驅動力，那就是數據中心以及相關的發電和配電投資」。

這股熱潮也提振了數據中心組件的承包商。美國建築承包商協會（Associated Builders and Contractors）近期表示，其會員中約有七分之一承接了數據中心的建設項目。

總部位於印第安納波利斯的電氣承包商Gaylor Electric執行長Chuck Goodrich表示，該公司50%到60%的業務現在都與數據中心建設相關。他估計，Gaylor Electric今年的營收將成長約30%，達到10億美元，明年還將成長20%，這主要得益於數據中心的熱潮。

他說:「從聖經的角度來看，我們恰好過著富足的生活」。

（待續）