[Analysis] Why is the Cryptocurrency Market Crashing?

 Recently NHK News on-line picked up the following:

【分析】なぜ暗号資産市場は暴落しているのか

2025.11.26 Wed posted at 18:59 JST

ニューヨーク（CNN） 暗号資産（仮想通貨）の基準に照らしても、この数週間は波乱続きだ。

デジタル資産の投資家は極端な値動きに慣れているものの、ここ6週間で1兆ドル（約155兆円8000億円）が吹き飛び、暗号資産の筋金入りの信奉者でさえ信念が試される展開になりつつある。新規参入者の間では暗号資産離れが相次ぐ。

代表的な暗号資産のビットコインは、10月上旬に過去最高値となる12万6000ドルを付けて以降、急落している。ビットコインは今月21日に8万1000ドルを割り込んだ後、週末にやや回復。24日には株式市場全体が持ち直し、ビットコインも24時間で2%近く上昇して8万8000ドルを上回った。（暗号資産市場は週7日、1日24時間開いている）

今月は記録に残る限り、暗号資産にとって過去最悪レベルの月になりそうだ。しかも、市場が底を打ったのかどうかは判然としない。

ドイツ銀行のアナリストは24日、「今回の調整後にビットコインが安定するかは依然見通せない」と指摘。「個人投資家による投機が主因となっていた過去の暴落とは異なり、今年の下落は機関投資家の大規模参入、政策の動向、世界的なマクロトレンドの中で起きつつある」と記した。

近年、暗号資産の値動きは株式市場とおおむね連動してきたが、現在の不安はもっと根深い。その大きな要因として、暗号資産投資家の資金とは非常に異なった動きをする主流資金の流入がある。

S＆P500の下落が直近のピークから3％にとどまる一方、ビットコインは直近の高値から30％下げて弱気相場入りしている。このままいくと2022年に暗号資産の「冬」が到来して、サム・バンクマン・フリード被告が設立した暗号資産（仮想通貨）交換業者FTXトレーディングの崩壊を招いて以来、最悪の月になりそうだ。

株式と暗号資産に不安が集まっている主な理由は二つ。投資家が連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）による追加利下げを懸念していること、そしてAI（人工知能）バブルが眼前ではじけるのではないかとの不安を抱いていることだ。

デジタル資産はハイテク株と同様、FRBの基準金利の変化に極めて敏感なことから、これら全てが暗号資産トレーダーの心理に重くのしかかっている。金利の変化は借り入れコストに影響を及ぼし、投資家のリスク許容度を急速にしぼませる可能性がある。

だがこれに加え、暗号資産投資家は10月10日に発生した「フラッシュクラッシュ」の後遺症にも悩まされている。トランプ米大統領がこの日、中国との貿易戦争を再燃させたことでパニック売りが広がり、ハイレバレッジの暗号資産市場でロスカットを誘発。1日で190億ドル分の暗号資産が吹き飛んだ。胃が痛むような暴落をきっかけに暗号資産市場から完全撤退する投資家も多く、ビットコインなどのトークンは一段と大きな変動にさらされている状況だ。

フラッシュクラッシュの結果、多くの投資家は保有資産を売却してマージンコール（追証）に応じることを余儀なくされた。これは雪だるま式に影響を誘発する傾向にある。ビットコインが下がれば下がるほど、投資家は証券会社から追証を求められ、ポジションをカバーするためにビットコイン（その他の資産）を売らねばならなくなる。

今回の暗号資産の暴落がこれまでと違うのは、米規制当局が昨年承認した現物ビットコインのファンドを通じて数十億ドルの主流資金が流入している点だ。

主流の投資家は相場上昇の波に乗ろうと暗号資産に参入したが、初期の参入者ほどその理念に傾倒しているわけではない。初期参入者はインターネット上の熱心なコミュニティーに支えられており、押し目買いを入れて信念を貫くよう互いに励まし合ってきた。

インタラクティブ・ブローカーズのチーフストラテジスト、スティーブ・ソスニック氏は「要するに、今やビットコインは一般投資家のものになった」と筆者にコメント。「結果として、一般投資家は今後、ビットコインをポートフォリオ内のもう一つの投機資産とみなし、変動の激しい主流投資商品と同じように扱うだろう」と指摘している。

Translation

[Analysis] Why is the Cryptocurrency Market Crashing?

New York (CNN) -- The past few weeks had been turbulent, even by Crypto asset (Cryptocurrency) standards.

Digital asset investors were accustomed to extreme price swings, but the loss of $1 trillion (approximately ¥155 trillion and ¥800 billion) over the past six weeks was testing even the most ardent crypto enthusiasts' beliefs. Newcomers were increasingly abandoning the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, had plummeted since hitting an all-time high of $126,000 in early October. Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on the 21st of this month before recovering somewhat over the weekend. On the 24th, the broader stock market rebounded, and Bitcoin rose nearly 2% in 24 hours to over $88,000. (The cryptocurrency market was open 24 hours a day, seven days a week.)

This month, as far as records went, was one of the worst months for cryptocurrencies. Moreover, it's unclear whether the market had bottomed out.

Deutsche Bank analysts noted on the 24th that "it remains unclear whether Bitcoin will stabilize after this correction." They wrote "Unlike past crashes driven primarily by speculation by individual investors, this year's decline is occurring amid a backdrop of large-scale participation of institutional investors, policy trends, happening amidst global macro trends".

In recent years, while cryptocurrency price movements had largely linked to the stock market, the current concerns were more deeply rooted. A major factor was the influx of mainstream funds, which behaved very differently from cryptocurrency investor funds.

While the S&P 500 was down just 3% from its recent peak, Bitcoin had fallen 30% from its recent high, entering a bear market. If things continued as they were, this would be the worst month since the "Crypto Winter" of 2022, which led to the collapse of FTX Trading, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by defendant Sam Bankman-Fried.

There were two main reasons for the anxiety surrounding stocks and cryptocurrency: investors were afraid of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Board (FDR) and feared that the AI ​​ (Artificial Intelligence) bubble could burst before our eyes.

Digital assets, like tech stocks, were highly sensitive to changes in the Fed's benchmark interest rate, all of these were weighing heavily on the minds of cryptocurrency traders. Changes in interest rates would affect borrowing costs, it could quickly erode investors' risk-taking appetite.

But on top of this, cryptocurrency investors were also struggling with the aftereffects of the "flash crash" that occurred on October 10. U.S. President Donald Trump reignited the trade war with China on that day, sparking widespread panic selling and triggering loss-cut in the highly leveraged cryptocurrency market. $19 billion worth of crypto assets was wiped out in a single day. The gut-wrenching crash prompted many investors to exit the cryptocurrency market entirely, exposing Bitcoin and other tokens to even greater volatility.

As a result of the flash crash, many investors were forced to sell their holdings to meet margin calls, which tended to trigger a snowball effect. The deeper Bitcoin fell, the more investors were pressured by brokerage firms to provide margin calls, forcing them to sell Bitcoin (and other assets) to cover their positions.

What made the present cryptocurrency crash different from previous ones was that billions of dollars of mainstream money were flowing in through physical Bitcoin funds approved last year by U.S. regulators.

Mainstream investors entered the cryptocurrency market hoping to ride the rising tide, but they were not as ideologically committed as early entrants. Early entrants were supported by passionate online communities, who encouraged each other to buy the dips and stick to their convictions.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told me “In short, Bitcoin now belongs to the average investor. " He pointed out that "As a result, average investors will likely view Bitcoin as another speculative asset in their portfolios, treating it in the same way as volatile mainstream investments."

              So, there is a Crypto asset crash. What makes this cryptocurrency crash different from previous ones is that billions of dollars of mainstream funds are flowing in through spot Bitcoin funds.  It is believed that Bitcoin now belongs to the average investors and as a result, average investors will likely view Bitcoin as another speculative asset in their portfolios, treating it in the same way as volatile mainstream investments.

Note:

1. Sam Bankman-Fried (born March 5, 1992), commonly known as SBF, is an American entrepreneur who was convicted of fraud and related crimes in November 2023. Bankman-Fried founded the FTX cryptocurrency exchange and was celebrated as a "poster boy" for crypto, with FTX having a global reach with more than 130 international affiliates. At the peak of his net worth, he was ranked the 41st-richest American in the Forbes 400. In November 2022, as evidence of potential fraud began to surface, depositors quickly withdrew their assets from FTX, forcing the company into bankruptcy. On December 12, 2022, Bankman-Fried was arrested in the Bahamas and extradited to the United States, where he was indicted on seven criminal charges, including wire fraud, commodities fraud, securities fraud, money laundering, and campaign finance law violations. (Wikipedia)

2. A flash crash refers to an event where prices of the overall market or a particular stock decline rapidly then recovers quickly, sometimes within the span of minutes. The cause of a flash crash is typically a rapid sell-off of securities, resulting in dramatic price declines. However, as prices rebound by the end of a trading day, it can appear as if the flash crash never happened. (Investopedia)