Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
China urged to deepen ASEAN ties as US becomes India's
biggest trading partner
SCMP Frank Tang in Beijing and Ji Siqi
Mon, May 30, 2022, 2:30 AM
Fast growing trade between India and the United States has
raised eyebrows in China, fuelling concern that the Biden administration is
moving swiftly to use its new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to contain the
world's No 2 economy.
China lost its title as India's biggest trading partner to the US last year, according to new data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
The value of merchandise trade between the world's two most populous countries reached a high of US$115.4 billion in the 2021-22 financial year that ended in March, an increase of 33.6 per cent from a year earlier.
But it was surpassed by trade with
the US, which rose 48.3 per cent to US$119.4 billion.
Indian imports from China, mainly machines and electronics, rose 44.4 per cent to US$94.2 billion, but its China-bound shipments grew only 0.3 per cent to US$21.3 billion.
On the contrary, its exports to the US jumped 47.4 per cent from a year earlier to US$76.11 billion, while imports rose 50 per cent to US$43.31 billion.
India recorded a US$32.8 billion trade surplus from the US last year, compared with a deficit of US$72.9 billion with China.
India's top 10 trading partners were rounded out by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Singapore, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea and Australia.
"Trade between India and the US are complementary, as seen from the outsourced IT service from the Silicon Valley," said He Weiwen, a former commercial counsellor at Chinese Consulate General in San Francisco.
"It is a trend that their trade value will surpass China-India trade. However, it is far lower than China-US trade."
He, who is now a senior fellow with the Centre for China and Globalisation, a Beijing-based think tank, said China should concentrate on fixing domestic weak links and manage its relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), its top trading partner with which it has complete supply chains.
"China should also remedy the negative impact of the recent pandemic on foreign funded firms," he said.
"Competition with India and Vietnam is not the most important because their size is too small. We should do a good job on our own things first."
China was India's top trading partner from 2013-18, before being replaced by the US, then topping the list again in 2020-21.
Lu Xiang, a researcher on US issues with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China's exports to India have been affected by trade and investment restrictions from New Delhi, which have coincided with heightened tensions between the neighbours.
"But the two markets are different and the US market cannot completely replace China for India," he said.
Closer US-India ties are among a number of risks facing China. Western powers are increasingly critical of the country's trade with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, while Beijing's zero-Covid restrictions are slowing the economy and forcing investors to consider diversifying.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Pingan Securities, said China should integrate more deeply with Asean to counter Washington's Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
"[The framework] is a replacement for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership as the Biden administration tries to re-establish its influence in Indo-Pacific regions and lure members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ," he wrote in a note on Monday.
India is not a member of the China-led RCEP, but signed up for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework launched by Biden during his Asia trip last week.
印度和美國之間快速增長的貿易在中國引起了關注，引發了人們對拜登政府正在迅速採取行動，利用其新的印太經濟框架來遏制世界第二大經濟體的擔憂。
根據印度商業和工業部的最新數據，中國去年失去了印度最大貿易夥伴的頭銜給美國。
在截至 3 月的 2021-22 財年，世界上人口最多的兩個國家之間的商品貿易額達到 1,154 億美元，同比增長 33.6%。
但它被與美國的貿易所超越，增長了 48.3%，達到 1,194 億美元。
印度從中國進口的主要是機器和電子產品，增長 44.4% 至 942 億美元，但其對中國的出口僅增長 0.3% 至 213 億美元。
相反，其對美國的出口同比增長47.4%至761.1億美元，而進口增長50%至433.1億美元。
印度去年對美國的貿易順差為328億美元，而對中國的是貿易逆差729億美元。
印度排名前十名的貿易夥伴依次為阿拉伯聯合酋長國、沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、新加坡、香港、印度尼西亞、韓國和澳大利亞。
中國駐舊金山總領事館前商務參贊 He Weiwen 說：“印美之間的貿易是互補的，從矽谷外判的 IT 服務就可以看出。”
He Weiwen 現在是位於北京的中國與全球化中心的智庫的高級研究員，他說中國應該集中精力解決國內的薄弱環節，並管理與東南亞國家聯盟（東盟）的關係, 中國擁有與東盟完整供應鏈的合作夥伴。
他說：“中國還應該彌補近期疫情對外資企業的負面影響。”
“與印度和越南的競爭不是最重要的，因為它們的規模太小了。我們應該先把自己的事情做好。”
中國在 2013-18 年是印度最大的貿易夥伴，之後被美國取代，然後在 2020-21 年再次位居榜首。
中國社會科學院美國問題研究員 Lu Xiang 表示，中國對印度的出口受到新德里貿易和投資限制的影響，而這些限制恰逢與該鄰國之間的緊張局勢加劇。
他說:“但這兩個市場是不同的，美國市場在印度不能完全取代中國的”。
更緊密的美印關係是中國面臨的眾多風險之一。在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後，西方大國越來越批評該國與俄羅斯的貿易，而北京的零疫情感染限制正在使經濟放緩並迫使投資者考慮分散投資。
平安證券首席經濟學家 Zhong Zhengsheng 表示，中國應該與東盟更深入地融合，以對抗華盛頓的印太經濟框架。
週一他在一篇文章中寫道：“隨著拜登政府試圖重建其在印太地區的影響力並吸引區域全面經濟夥伴關係的成員，[該框架]將取代《跨太平洋夥伴關係全面進步協議》。”
印度不是中國主導的RCEP成員，但簽署了拜登上周亞洲之行期間發起的印太經濟框架。
So, China's exports to India have
been affected by trade and investment restrictions from New Delhi which have
coincided with heightened tensions between them. India is not a member of the
China-led RCEP, but has signed up for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework
launched by Biden. The intention of the US to re-establish its influence in
Indo-Pacific regions is clear.
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