美國銀行稱，外國對美國國債的需求正在出現「裂痕」

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

'Cracks' are forming in foreign demand for US Treasury bonds, BofA says

Business Insider - Christine Ji

Tue, June 17, 2025 at 3:53 p.m. PDT·2 min read

Foreign buyers of US Treasurys have been shedding their holdings, raising the possibility of more future turbulence for US government bonds, Bank of America titled said.

In a report on Monday titled "Foreign UST Demand Shows Cracks," the bank said that foreign investors, often central banks, are purchasing fewer Treasurys.

Megan Swiber, rates strategist at Bank of America, wrote on Monday that US dollar asset holdings have declined over $60 billion since the beginning of April. Foreign participation in the most recent US 20-year Treasury auction was the lowest since July 2020.

"The foreign demand trajectory going forward is concerning, especially in light of more global investors looking to reduce US assets or increase hedge ratios," she wrote.

Specifically, custodial holdings, or US Treasurys that foreign central banks hold at the Federal Reserve, dropped by $17 billion in the last week and are down $48 billion from late March.

The Fed is also conducting fewer reverse repurchase agreements, which could point to lower demand for Treasurys among global central banks.

A reverse repurchase agreement allows institutions to lend cash overnight to the Fed in exchange for high-quality collateral, usually in the form of short-term US government bonds. Reverse repurchase agreement balances have declined $15 billion since late March, according to the bank.

As seen in the chart below, demand for Treasurys in Q1 of 2025 primarily came from broker-dealers and foreign investors, a trend that may now be reversing.

Decreased foreign demand is atypical in times of heightened economic uncertainty and a weak dollar. Usually, central banks buy up US government debt when the dollar falls versus rivals — which has been the case this year with the US dollar index down over 9%.

Additionally, historically low interest rates in other parts of the world have led foreign investors to jump into the US Treasury market in pursuit of higher yields, Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist said recently. As a result, foreign investors have accumulated record-high exposure to US government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years, meaning that any adjustments they make to their holdings will have an outsize impact on the bond market.

BofA said that it appears now that foreign investors are cutting back on their US Treasury investments, as deficit concerns and general growth worries stemming from tariffs and the tax bill hurt their appeal as safe-haven assets.

Translation

美國銀行稱，外國對美國國債的需求正在出現「裂痕」

美國銀行稱，外國買家一直在減持美國國債，這增加了美國政府公債未來可能出現更多動盪的可能性。

美國銀行在周一發布的一份題為《外國對美國國債的需求出現裂痕》的報告中表示，外國投資者（通常是各國央行）正在減少購買美國國債。

美國銀行利率策略師 Megan Swiber 週一寫道，自4月初以來，美元資產持有量已下降超過600億美元。外國投資者參與最近一次美國20年期公債拍賣的人數創下2020年7月以來的最低水準。

她寫道： “未來的外國需求走勢令人擔憂，尤其是在越來越多的全球投資者尋求減持美國資產或提高對沖比率的情況下。”

具體而言，外國央行在聯邦儲備系統持有的美國公債託管量（即託管持有量）在上週減少了170億美元，較3月底減少了480億美元。

聯邦儲備系統也在減少逆回購協議的執行，這可能顯示全球央行對美國公債的需求下降。

逆回購協議允許機構隔夜向聯邦儲備系統借出現金，以換取高品質的抵押品，通常是短期美國政府債券。據聯邦儲備系統稱，逆回購協議餘額自3月底以來已下降150億美元。

如下圖所示，2025年第一季美國公債需求主要來自經紀自營商和外國投資者，而這一趨勢目前可能正在逆轉。

在經濟不確定性加劇和美元疲軟時期，外國需求下降並不常見。通常情況下，各國央行會在美元兌其他貨幣下跌時買進美國公債 - 今年美元指數下跌超過9%就是這種情況。

此外，Apollo 首席經濟學家 Torsten Sløk 最近表示，世界其他地區的歷史低利率促使外國投資者湧入美國國債市場，以追求更高的收益率。因此，外國投資者對期限超過10年期的美國國債的持倉已達到創紀錄的高位，這意味著他們對持倉的任何調整都將對債券市場產生巨大影響。

美國銀行表示，目前看來，外國投資者正在削減對美國國債的投資，因為赤字擔憂以及關稅和稅收法案引發的普遍增長擔憂, 削弱了美國國債作為避險資產的吸引力。

              So, foreign buyers of US Treasurys have been shedding their holdings, raising the possibility of more future turbulence for US government bonds. Foreign participation in the most recent US 20-year Treasury auction is the lowest since July 2020. It seems that foreign investors are cutting back on their US Treasury investments due to factors such as deficit concerns and worries caused by tariffs and the tax bill.