關稅衝擊令美國製造業陷入泥沼

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US manufacturing mired in weakness as tariffs bite

Reuters - Lucia Mutikani

Tue, July 1, 2025 at 7:02 a.m. PDT·2 min read

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. manufacturing remained sluggish in June, with new orders subdued and prices paid for inputs creeping higher, suggesting that the Trump administration's tariffs on imported goods continued to hamper businesses' ability to plan ahead.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its manufacturing PMI nudged up to 49.0 last month from a six-month low of 48.5 in May. It was the fourth straight month that the PMI was below the 50 mark, which indicates contraction in the sector that accounts for 10.2% of the economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI little changed at 48.8.

The survey joined weak data on the housing market, consumer spending and swelling unemployment rolls that have suggested the economy's underlying momentum slowed further in the second quarter even as gross domestic product probably rebounded as the drag from a record trade deficit faded due to falling imports.

A measure of domestic demand grew at its slowest pace in more than two years in the January-March quarter. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, which have led businesses and households to front-run imports and goods purchases to avoid higher prices from duties, have muddled the economic picture. Economists warned it could take time for the tariff-related distortions to wash out of the economic data.

The PMI last month was likely lifted by longer delivery times, which under normal circumstances would be related to strong demand. The extensive tariffs have caused bottlenecks in the supply chain, resulting in factories waiting longer for raw material deliveries.

The ISM survey's supplier deliveries index slipped to 54.2 from 56.1 in May, though it was still high with a reading above 50 indicating slower deliveries. The ISM has reported "ongoing delays in clearing goods through ports of entry."

The situation, however, appears to have improved slightly, with the survey's imports measure rising to a still-subdued 47.4 after slumping to 39.9 in May. Manufacturing is heavily reliant on imported raw materials.

Though production at factories picked up last month, it was probably the result of manufacturers working through backlog orders. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index dropped to 46.4 from 47.6 in May. This measure has now contracted for five consecutive months.

Its gauge of prices paid by factories for inputs ticked up to 69.7 from 69.4 in the prior month.

With manufacturers facing weak demand and higher prices for inputs, employment declined further last month. The survey's measure of manufacturing employment fell to 45.0 from 46.8 in May. The ISM has noted an "acceleration of headcount reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand."

Translation

關稅衝擊令美國製造業陷入泥沼

華盛頓（路透）－美國製造業6月依然獃滯，新訂單低迷，入貨價格攀升，這顯示特朗普政府對進口商品徵收的關稅持續阻礙企業提前規劃的能力。

美國供應管理協會（ISM）週二公佈，其製造業 PMI 指數從5月的六個月低點 48.5 小幅回升至49.0。這是該指數連續第四個月低於50的關口，顯示佔美國經濟10.2%的製造業正在萎縮。路透社調查的經濟學家先前曾預測PMI指數將基本持平於48.8。

這項調查與疲軟的房地產市場、消費者支出和不斷膨脹的失業人數等數據結合一起，表明美國經濟第二季度的潛在增長勢頭進一步放緩，儘管國內生產總值 (GDP) 因進口減少而出現的創紀錄貿易減弱了赤字的拖累。

衡量國內需求的一項指標在1-3月季度增速創下兩年多來的最低水準。特朗普總統的全面關稅措施導致企業和家庭搶先購買進口商品，以避免關稅導致的價格上漲，這擾亂了經濟狀況。經濟學家警告稱，關稅相關的扭曲因素可能需要一段時間才能從經濟數據中消退。

上個月的 PMI 數據的上升可能是由於交貨時間延長所致，在正常情況下，交貨時間延長與需求強勁有關。廣泛的關稅導致了供應鏈出現瓶頸，導致工廠等待原材料交付的時間更長。

美國供應管理協會 的調查供應商交貨指數從5月的56.1下滑至54.2，但該指數仍處於高位，高於50的讀數顯示交貨速度放緩。 協會報告稱，「貨物透過入境口岸的清關持續有延誤」。

不過，情況似乎略有改善，該調查的進口指標在5月暴跌至39.9之後，回升至仍低迷的47.4。製造業嚴重依賴進口原料。

儘管上個月工廠產量有所回升，但這可能是製造商處理積壓訂單的結果。 美國供應管理協會 調查的前瞻性新訂單分項指數從5月的47.6降至46.4。此指標已連續五個月收縮。

該分項指數衡量工廠投入品支付價格，從上個月的69.4小幅上升至69.7。

由於製造商面臨需求疲軟和投入品價格上漲，上個月就業人數進一步下降。調查的製造業的就業指數從5月的46.8降至45.0。 協會指出， “由於近期至中期需求的不確定性，裁員速度正在加快。”

              So, ISM said that its manufacturing PMI went up to 49.0 last month from a six-month low of 48.5 in May. It was the fourth straight month that the PMI was below the 50-mark. U.S. manufacturing remained sluggish in June, with new orders subdued and prices paid for inputs going higher, suggesting that the Trump administration's tariffs on imported goods continued to hamper businesses' ability to plan ahead.