比特幣上漲更多受機構需求而非投機驅動

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Bitcoin rally driven more by institutional demand than speculation

Reuters - Patturaja Murugaboopathy

Mon, July 14, 2025 at 8:09 a.m. PDT·2 min read

(Reuters) -As bitcoin hit a record high on Monday, evidence from institutional flows and derivatives suggested its rally might be more stable and lasting than previous speculative runs.

Bitcoin crossed $120,000 for the first time on optimism over upcoming U.S. House discussions on digital asset regulation, extending its gains this year to about 30%.

The rise has been fuelled by strong flows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and rising corporate treasury allocations.

Analysts said bitcoin's surge is driven this time by institutional flows and reflects its evolution into a more stable asset, sought after as investors seek diversification from market volatility and a wobbly U.S. dollar.

Institutional inflows tend to be longer-term and less prone to rapid reversal, lending greater stability and durability to the current rally.

Bitcoin ETFs have made a strong start to July, attracting $3.4 billion in inflows so far. That includes a record $2.2 billion over the past two days, the largest two-day net inflow on record, according to data from Farside Investors.

At the same time, open interest in bitcoin futures rose to a record $57.4 billion as of Friday, data from CoinDesk shows.

Open interest tracks the total value of outstanding futures contracts, and a sustained rise often points to greater institutional involvement, as larger investors tend to hold bigger, longer-term positions and use futures for hedging.

Yet, funding rates in the futures market remain subdued. According to CoinDesk, the annualised funding rate stood at 10%, well below the 80% peaks of 2023 and 40% at the end of last year.

The funding rate reflects the cost traders pay to keep bullish, leveraged bets open in the futures market. A decline signals they’re less willing to pay to stay in those positions — a sign of reduced speculative demand.

Glassnode data shows bitcoin’s estimated leverage ratio has declined to 0.25, down from 0.32 at the start of 2025.

The leverage ratio compares how large traders’ futures bets are relative to the amount of bitcoin on exchanges. A lower ratio means those bets are backed by more real capital and less borrowed money.

Glassnode data also showed an increase in short liquidations as traders betting against bitcoin bought back the token as prices rose, adding momentum to the rally.

Translation

比特幣上漲更多受機構需求而非投機驅動

（路透社）— 隨著比特幣週一創下歷史新高，機構資金流動和衍生性商品交易的證據表明，其漲勢可能比以往的投機性上漲更穩定、更持久。

由於對美國眾議院即將就數位資產監管進行討論的樂觀情緒，比特幣價格首次突破12萬美元，今年以來漲幅已擴大至約30%。

比特幣上漲的動力源自於大量資金流入比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）以及企業債配置的增加。

分析師表示，此次比特幣的飆升是由機構資金流動推動的，反映出其正逐漸成為更穩定的資產，投資者尋求分散投資以規避市場波動和美元波動的影響，因此比特幣受到追捧。

機構資金流入往往持續時間較長，且不易出現快速逆轉，這為當前的漲勢提供了更高的穩定性和持久性。

比特幣ETF在7月表現強勁，迄今已吸引34億美元的資金流入。根據Farside Investors的數據，過去兩天流入資金達創紀錄的22億美元，創下有史以來最大的雙日淨流入紀錄。

同時，CoinDesk的數據顯示，截至週五，比特幣期貨未平倉合約增至創紀錄的574億美元。

根據未平倉合約可以去追蹤未到期貨合約的總價值，持續上漲通常表示機構投資者的參與度有所提升，因為規模較大的投資者往往持有規模更大、期限更長的倉位，並使用期貨進行對沖。

然而，期貨市場的融資利率仍然低迷。根據CoinDesk的數據，年化融資利率為10%，遠低於2023年的80%高峰和去年年底的40%。

融資利率反映了交易員在期貨市場維持看漲槓桿部位所支付的成本。融資利率下降表明他們不太願意為維持這些部位而去支付費用 - 這顯示出投機需求有所減少。

Glassnode 的數據顯示，比特幣的預估槓桿率已從 2025 年初的 0.32 降至 0.25。

槓桿率指的是交易員的期貨押注規模與交易所比特幣數量的比例。較低的槓桿率意味著這些押注背後有更多由實資本和更少由借款支持。

Glassnode 的數據還顯示，由於空頭清算 (short liquidations) 數量增加，做空比特幣的交易員在價格上漲時回購了比特幣, 這為比特幣的上漲增添了動力。

       So, as bitcoin hit a record high on Monday, evidence from institutional flows and derivatives suggested its rally might be more stable and lasting than previous speculative runs. Apparently, bitcoin is gaining popularity in many countries, including the US.

Note:

1. Bitcoin ETFs (exchange‑traded funds)(比特幣交易所交易基金) are investment funds traded like stocks that let you gain exposure to Bitcoin indirectly, without owning or managing the cryptocurrency yourself. A spot Bitcoin ETF holds actual Bitcoin in custody and issues shares designed to track the current market price of Bitcoin while a Bitcoin futures ETF invests in futures contracts tied to Bitcoin's expected price rather than owning Bitcoin directly. (ChatGPT)

2. Open interest (futures) (未平倉合約) is the number of "open" contracts or open interest of derivatives in the futures market. Open interest in a derivative is the sum of all contracts that have not expired, been exercised or physically delivered. Open interest is used as a technical indicator as it is a measure of market activity. Little or no open interest means there is no one opening positions, or nearly all the positions have been closed. High open interest means there are many contracts still open and means that new or additional money are coming into the market. (Wikipedia)

3. In trading and finance, a short liquidation (空頭清算)refers to the forced closing of a short position—usually due to insufficient margin to support losses.  A short selling is that you borrow shares from a broker and immediately sell them, hoping the price drops. If you buy them back (cover) at a lower price, return them, you pocket the difference. (ChatGPT)