Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:
US goods trade deficit hits nearly two-year low as
imports tumble
Reuters - Lucia Mutikani
Updated Tue, July 29, 2025 at 6:44 a.m. PDT·3 min read
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to the lowest level in nearly two years in June as imports fell sharply, cementing economists' expectations that trade likely accounted for much of an anticipated rebound in economic growth in the second quarter.
While the unexpected contraction reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday could prompt economists to upgrade their gross domestic product estimates for last quarter, the steep decline in imports flagged slowing domestic demand.
Imports surged in the first quarter as businesses rushed to beat higher prices from President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on foreign merchandise, contributing to the first decline in GDP in three years. The Trump administration has announced a number of trade deals which economists said could help to ease uncertainty.
"This lends upside risk for our (GDP) forecast," said Matthew Martin, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "As trade policy uncertainty eases, imports and exports may begin to find their troughs in the second half of the year and become less volatile."
The goods trade gap narrowed 10.8% to $86.0 billion last month, the lowest level since September 2023, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the goods trade deficit would rise to $98.20 billion.
Imports of goods decreased $11.5 billion, or 4.2%, to $264.2 billion, the lowest level since March 2024. The decline was led by a 12.4% plunge in consumer goods imports.
Industrial supplies imports, which include crude oil and non-monetary gold, slumped 5.5%. Imports of foods, feeds and beverages fell 1.1%, while those of motor vehicles decreased 2.0%. But capital goods imports rose 0.6%.
Goods exports slipped $1.1 billion, or 0.6%, to $178.2 billion. They were held back by an 8.1% drop in exports of industrial supplies. But exports of capital goods shot up 4.7%, while shipments of foods, feeds and beverages increased 4.0%. Shipments of consumer goods advanced 1.5%.
Though a reversal is expected in the trade deficit after it sliced off a record 4.61 percentage points from GDP in the first quarter, some of the boost to growth was likely partially offset by businesses drawing down on some of the imports, which had landed in warehouses as inventory.
The Census Bureau report also showed wholesale inventories increased 0.2% in June after declining by 0.3% in May.
Stocks at retailers rose 0.3%, matching May's gain. They were driven by a 0.9% increase in motor vehicle stocks. Excluding motor vehicles, retail inventories were unchanged. This component goes into the GDP calculation.
Translation
美國商品貿易逆差因進口大幅下降創近兩年新低
華盛頓（路透社）— 由於進口大幅下降，美國6月份商品貿易逆差收窄至近兩年來的最低水平，這鞏固了經濟學家的預期，即貿易可能在很大程度上推動了第二季度經濟成長的預期反彈。
儘管美國商務部週二公佈的意外萎縮可能促使經濟學家上調對上季國內生產毛額（GDP）的預期，但進口的大幅下降表明國內需求正在放緩。
由於企業爭相應對特朗普總統對外國商品徵收全面關稅導致的價格上漲，第一季進口激增，導致GDP三年來首次下降。特朗普政府宣布了一系列貿易協議，經濟學家表示，這些協議可能有助於緩解不確定性。
牛津經濟研究院高級美國經濟學家 Matthew Martin 表示： “這給我們的（GDP）預測帶來了上行風險。隨著貿易政策不確定性的緩解，進出口可能在下半年開始觸底，波動性也會降低。”
美國商務部人口普查局表示，上個月商品貿易逆差收窄10.8%，至860億美元，為2023年9月以來的最低水準。路透社調查的經濟學家先前預測，商品貿易逆差將升至982億美元。
商品進口減少115億美元，至2,642億美元，降幅4.2%，為2024年3月以來的最低水準。降幅是由消費品進口下降12.4%所帶動。
包括原油和非貨幣黃金在內的工業用品進口量下降5.5%。食品、飼料和飲料進口下降1.1%，汽車進口下降2.0%。但資本貨物進口成長0.6%。
商品出口下滑11億美元，至1,782億美元，降幅0.6%。由工業用品出口下降8.1%所導致。但資本貨物出口飆漲4.7%，食品、飼料和飲料出口增加4.0%。消費品出口增長1.5%。
政府定於週三公佈第二季GDP初值。路透社對經濟學家的調查預測，GDP在今年第一季縮小0.5%後，4-6月將反彈2.4%。
儘管貿易逆差在第一季創紀錄地削減了GDP的4.61個百分點，預計未來將出現逆轉，部分成長推動力可能因企業減少進口而部分抵消, 這些進口商品以庫存形式存入倉庫。
美國人口普查局的報告也顯示，繼5月則下降了0.3%後, 6月批發庫存增加了0.2%，。
零售庫存增長了0.3%，對應5月份的增幅。這主要由於汽車庫存成長了0.9%。撇除機動車，零售庫存保持不變。這部分已納入GDP的計算。
So, the U.S. trade deficit in
goods narrowed to the lowest level in nearly two years in June as imports fell
sharply. Yet a steep decline in imports suggests
a slowing domestic demand. Apparently, there is an uncertainty in how the US
markets will behave as the tariff war plays out.
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