中國GDP增速料超預期，緩解刺激措施的壓力（1/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China’s GDP Seen Outpacing Target, Easing Stimulus Pressure (1/2)

Bloomberg News

Mon, July 14, 2025 at 4:34 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(Bloomberg) -- China’s economy likely expanded just above the government’s full-year growth target in the second quarter, easing pressure on Beijing to roll out additional stimulus in the near term.

Official figures due Tuesday are expected to show gross domestic product rose 5.1% year-on-year in the quarter ended June, according to a Bloomberg survey. While slower than the first quarter, it would still put first-half growth at 5.3%, comfortably above Beijing’s annual target of around 5%, the survey shows.

The economy got a boost from strong exports, helped by a trade truce with the US in mid-May that lowered tariffs on Chinese goods to around 55% from a peak of 145%, as well as ongoing fiscal support aimed at shoring up domestic demand.

That momentum has many economists expecting Beijing to hold off on further stimulus, at least for now, to preserve policy space in case tensions with Washington flare up again once the temporary deal expires in mid-August.

“We see limited urgency for policymakers to strike the policy put soon,” Citigroup Inc. economists including Xiangrong Yu wrote in a note Thursday.

Data released on Monday showed exports rising 5.8% in June, accelerating for the first time since March and beating economists’ expectations.

An upcoming July meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo, which includes 24 of the country’s most senior officials led by President Xi Jinping, could “further confirm a wait-and-see policy mode, while keeping the door open for incremental small-scale support,” the Citi economists said.

The People’s Bank of China has indicated it’s taking a less dovish stance on easing. In a statement after its quarterly monetary policy committee meeting last month, the central bank dropped its earlier pledge to cut interest rates and inject long-term liquidity in a timely manner, saying instead it would “calibrate the intensity and pace of policy implementation” with flexibility.

The central bank will closely monitor the impact of measures already implemented and pace the roll-out of further policies, Zou Lan, a deputy governor of the PBOC, said on Monday.

That said, the boost from front-loading of exports and earlier fiscal support may fade in the second half, potentially increasing the need for more policy action later this year. Economists from Citi and Nomura Holdings Inc. expect a 10-basis-point cut to the policy rate and a 50-basis-point reduction in banks’ reserve requirement ratios by year-end.

Here’s a preview of other key economic indicators set for release by the National Bureau of Statistics at 10 a.m. Beijing time Tuesday.

Consumption

Retail sales growth is expected to have slowed to 5.3% in June year-on-year from 6.4% in May, bringing first-half expansion to around 5%.

Sales might have taken a hit in June as some provinces suspended government subsidies for consumer purchases of items like smartphones, home appliances and cars. The early launch of JD.com’s mid-year shopping festival in mid-May — weeks earlier than last year — could have pulled spending forward, weighing on last month’s figures.

China earmarked 300 billion yuan ($41.8 billion) from the issuance of ultra-long special sovereign bonds to fund consumer subsidies this year. Officials said more than half the funds were deployed in the first half, with the remainder to be allocated in July and October. Weekly spending plans will be made with an aim to keep subsidies available to consumers through year-end.

The threat of higher US tariffs on Chinese goods in the coming months has prompted some economists to urge Beijing to roll out more consumer-focused support to cushion the blow to growth. Academics including PBOC adviser Huang Yiping said authorities should add as much as 1.5 trillion yuan in new stimulus over 12 months to help offset the potential impact of US levies.

The government is planning to offer nationwide childcare subsidies, which is also part of broader efforts to boost birth rates, Bloomberg previously reported.

(to be continued)

Translation

中國GDP增速料超預期，緩解刺激措施的壓力（1/2)

（彭博）— 中國經濟第二季的成長可能略高於政府設定的全年成長目標，這減輕了中國政府近期推出額外刺激措施的壓力。

彭博調查顯示，預計週二公佈的官方數據顯示，截至6月的季度GDP年增5.1%。調查顯示，儘管成長率低於第一季，但仍將上半年GDP成長率推高至5.3%，遠高於北京設定的約5%的年度目標。

中國經濟受強勁的出口推動，及受惠於5月中旬中美貿易休戰將中國商品的關稅從145%的高峰降至55%左右，及旨在持續提振國內需求的財政支持措施。

這種勢頭促使許多經濟學家預計，北京方面至少目前將暫緩推出進一步的刺激措施，以保留政策空間，以防8月中旬臨時協議到期後, 中美關係再次緊張。

花旗集團經濟學家包括 Xiangrong Yu 在周四的一份報告中寫道： “我們認為政策制定者要盡快推出政策的緊迫性有限。”

週一公佈的數據顯示，6月出口成長5.8%，為3月以來首次加速，且超出了經濟學家的預期。

花旗經濟學家表示，即將於7月舉行的中共中央政治局會議（由國家主席習近平領導的24名中國最高官員組成）可能「進一步確認採取觀望政策模式，同時為逐步推出小規模支持措施敞開大門」。

中國人民銀行已表示，在寬鬆政策上的立場將有所緩和。上個月，央行貨幣政策委員會季度例會後發表聲明，宣布放棄先前承諾的適時降息和注入長期流動性，轉而表示將靈活地「掌握政策實施的力度和節奏」。

中國人民銀行副行長 Zou Lan 週一表示，央行將密切監測已實施措施的影響，並逐步推出新的政策。

儘管如此，前期出口刺激及之前的財政支持措施帶來的提振作用可能會在下半年消退，這或許會增加今年稍後採取更多政策行動的必要性。花旗銀行和野村控股公司的經濟學家預計，到年底，政策利率將下調10個基點，銀行存款準備率將下調50個基點。

以下是國家統計局於週二北京時間上午10點發佈的其他主要經濟指標的預覽。

消費

預計6月零售額年增率將從5月的6.4%放緩至5.3%，使上半年的增幅降至5%左右。

由於一些省份暫停了對智慧型手機、家電和汽車等消費品的政府補貼，6月的銷售額可能受到衝擊。京東年中購物節於5月中旬提前推出，比去年提前了幾週，這可能提前拉動了消費支出，從而對上月的數據造成了壓力。

中國已發行3,000億元人民幣（約418億美元）超長期特別主權債券，用於今年的消費補貼。官員表示，超過一半的資金已在上半年到位，其餘資金將在7月和10月到位。政府將制定每週的支出計劃，以確保補貼資金能持續發放到年底。

未來幾個月美國可能會對中國商品加徵關稅，促使一些經濟學家敦促北京推出更多以消費者為中心的支持措施，以緩解經濟成長所受到的衝擊。包括中國人民銀行顧問 Huang Yiping 在內的學者表示，當局應新增高達1.5兆元為期12個月的刺激措施，以協助抵銷美國關稅的潛在影響。

根據彭博社先前報道，政府計劃在全國範圍內提供兒童保育補貼，這也是提高生育率的更廣泛舉措的一部分。

（待續）