「關稅開始產生影響」：最新通膨和就業數據引發華爾街對美國經濟的擔憂

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

'Tariffs are starting to bite': Latest inflation, jobs data sparks Wall Street concern over US economy

Yahoo Finance - Allie Canal Senior Reporter

Sun, August 3, 2025 at 6:00 a.m. PDT·4 min read

Stocks have continued to notch record highs this year as investors bet on a resilient economy and minimal fallout from tariff-driven inflation. But last week, both assumptions came under pressure.

It was a packed week for economic data, offering a more nuanced and, in some cases, sobering look at the state of the US economy. The week kicked off with signs of strain in the labor market: The hiring rate fell to a seven-month low, and the quits rate, a key measure of worker confidence, dropped to just 2%.

On Wednesday, GDP data showed the economy rebounded at a 3% annualized pace in the second quarter, recovering from a surprise Q1 contraction driven by a pre-tariff surge in imports. But economists cautioned that the headline growth masked underlying softness. Sales to private domestic purchasers, a key proxy for consumer and business demand, rose just 1.2%, the weakest pace since 2022.

Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, called the rebound an "economic mirage," adding that policy uncertainty, rising inflation pressures from tariffs, and tighter immigration constraints are starting to weigh more visibly on economic activity.

Then, after the Fed held interest rates steady, Thursday's release of its preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed price increases accelerated in June as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target. Consumer spending also showed signs of strain as real personal spending rose just 0.1% in June following a revised 0.2% drop in May.

The week culminated in a disappointing July jobs report, which offered the clearest sign yet that the labor market may be cracking. The US added just 73,000 jobs, far short of the 104,000 forecast. Even more striking were sharp downward revisions to May and June, which erased a combined 258,000 jobs, the largest two-month downgrade since May 2020.

Taken in totality, last week's data painted a picture of mounting economic pressure, with growing signs that households are beginning to feel the strain as the second half of the year gets underway.

"Tariffs are starting to bite," EY's Daco told Yahoo Finance. "They're leading to higher inflationary pressures, which are curtailing consumer spending and prompting businesses to adopt more of a wait-and-see approach."

Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said the overall trend is becoming clearer: "The signs are that consumer spending is losing momentum." He added that "as real income growth wanes, we expect an increasing drag on consumer spending, particularly on discretionary purchases and goods most exposed to tariff-driven price increases."

While auto sales had been front-loaded earlier this year ahead of tariff implementation, Pearce pointed to renewed declines in tariff-sensitive categories like furniture. He noted that any short-term lift from early buying is now "mostly in the rear-view mirror," and warned that consumers have yet to fully absorb the impact of tariff-driven shocks to income and purchasing power.

Adding to the pressure, trade tensions escalated as President Trump raised tariff rates on several US trading partners, including a surprise 39% levy on imports from Switzerland.

"There's a repeated refrain that tariffs are not having an impact, and that assessment misses the mark," Wells Fargo economists, led by Jay Bryson, said in the latest installment of Yahoo Finance's Chartbook series.

"Consumer spending is not as sturdy as it was initially reported in the first quarter," the team added. "With two months of data on hand for the second quarter, it is becoming increasingly clear that households are reducing their discretionary outlays."

The strain is also beginning to show in corporate earnings.

"When you take a look at companies like Whirlpool, like P&G, they are being impacted by tariffs," Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, told Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. "There seems to be a sort of bifurcation when it comes to how tariffs are impacting bottom lines. Those that are focused on products for consumers ... And then you've got other companies, like Big Tech, that is sort of immune to the tariff situation."

But even Big Tech is starting to feel the squeeze. Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook warned this week that the company expects a $1.1 billion tariff hit this quarter. Elsewhere, a slew of consumer-facing companies, including Shake Shack (SHAK), Canada Goose (GOOS), and snack maker Kellanova (K), have struggled this earnings season as price-sensitive shoppers pull back.

Translation

「關稅開始產生影響」：最新通膨和就業數據引發華爾街對美國經濟的擔憂

由於投資人押注經濟將維持韌性，關稅引發的通膨影響將微乎其微，今年股市持續創下歷史新高。但上週，這兩種假設都面臨壓力。

本週經濟數據密集，為美國經濟狀況提供了更細緻入微、在某些情況下甚至更令人警醒的視角。本週開始，勞動市場就出現了緊張的跡象：招聘率跌至七個月低點，而衡量工人信心的關鍵指標 - 離職率 - 則降至僅2%。

週三公佈的GDP數據顯示，美國經濟第二季以3%的年化速度反彈，從第一季受關稅前進口激增推動的意外萎縮中復甦。但經濟學家警告稱，整體成長掩蓋了潛在的疲軟。對國內私人買家的銷售, 是一個消費者和企業需求的重要指標, 僅成長1.2%，為2022年以來的最低成長速度。

EY-Parthenon 首席經濟學家 Greg Daco 稱這次反彈是“經濟海市蜃樓” ，並補充說，政策不確定性、關稅帶來的通膨壓力上升, 以及更嚴格的移民限制正開始對經濟活動產生更明顯的壓力。

隨後，在聯儲局維持利率穩定後，週四發布的其首選通膨指標的個人消費支出（PCE）指數顯示，6月物價上漲加速，通膨率仍高於聯儲局2%的目標。消費者支出也顯示出過勞的跡象，6月實際個人支出僅成長0.1%，而5月份經修正後是0.2%的下降。

本週以令人失望的7月就業報告收尾，該報告提供了迄今為止最清晰的跡象，表明勞動力市場可能正在崩潰。美國新增就業人數僅7.3萬個，遠低於預期的 10.4 萬個。更令人震驚的是，5月和6月就業機會大幅下調，共減少了25.8萬個就業崗位，這是自2020年5月以來最大的兩個月降幅。

總體而言，上週的數據描繪了一幅經濟壓力不斷上升的景象，越來越多的跡象表明，隨著下半年的到來，家庭開始感受到壓力。

“關稅開始產生影響” ，EY的Daco告訴雅虎財經。 “它們導致通膨壓力上升，從而抑制了消費者支出，並促使企業採取更多的觀望態度。”

牛津經濟研究院 (Oxford Economics) 副首席美國經濟學家 Michael Pearce表示，總體趨勢正變得更加清晰：「有跡象表明，消費者支出正在失去動力」。他補充道：「隨著實際收入增長放緩，我們預計消費者支出將受到越來越大的拖累，尤其是非必需品購買和最容易受到關稅驅動價格上漲影響的商品。」

儘管今年稍早汽車銷售在關稅實施前已提前上漲，但Pearce指出，家具等對關稅敏感的類別再次出現下滑。他指出，任何早期購買帶來的短期提振現在都 “基本上成為過去” ，並警告稱，消費者尚未完全消化關稅對收入和購買力衝擊的影響。

貿易緊張局勢進一步升級，特朗普總統提高了對多個美國貿易夥伴的關稅，其中包括對瑞士進口產品意外徵收39%的關稅，這加劇了貿易壓力。

以Jay Bryson為首的富國銀行經濟學家在雅虎財經“圖表手冊” 系列的最新一期中表示： “人們反覆強調關稅沒有產生影響，這種評估沒有抓到重點。”

該團隊補充道： “消費者支出並不像第一季最初報告的那樣強勁”; “根據目前掌握的第二季度兩個月數據，越來越明顯的是，家庭正在減少可自由支配的支出。”

企業獲利也開始顯現壓力。

Piper Sandler 首席投資策略師 Michael Kantrowitz 在接受雅虎財經「Opening Bid」專欄採訪時表示：「看看惠而浦、P&G等公司，它們都受到了關稅的影響。關稅對不同企業的底線影響似乎存在分別。我們有那些專注於為消費者提供產品的公司…我們有其他公司，例如大型科技，則基本不受關稅的影響。」

但即使是大型科技公司也開始感受到壓力。蘋果 (AAPL) 執行長 Tim Cook 本週警告稱，該公司預計本季將受到 11 億美元的關稅衝擊。此外，由於對價格敏感的消費者減少，包括 Shake Shack (SHAK)、加拿大鵝 (GOOS) 和零食製造商 Kellanova (K) 在內的一系列面向消費者的公司在本財報季都面對艱難。

 So, US stocks have continued to reach record highs this year as investors bet on a resilient economy and minimal fallout from tariff-driven inflation, but recently both assumptions are coming under pressure. Recent economic data are suggesting signs of strain in the labor market: The hiring rate fell to a seven-month low while the quits rate dropped to just 2%. Sales to private domestic purchasers rose just 1.2%, the weakest pace since 2022. Apparently, the US economy situation is facing uncertainty.