經濟學家擔憂的關稅驅動型通貨膨漲開始顯現 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The tariff-driven inflation that economists feared begins to emerge (1/2)

The Associated Press - Christopher Rugaber And Josh Boak

Tue, July 15, 2025 at 7:53 a.m. PDT·6 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs push up the cost of a range of goods, including furniture, clothing, and large appliances.

Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.3% from May to June, after rising just 0.1% the previous month.

Worsening inflation poses a political challenge for Trump, who promised during last year’s presidential campaign to immediately lower costs only to engage in a whipsawed frenzy of tariffs that have left businesses and consumers worried. Trump has already declared that the U.S. effectively has no more inflation as he has attempted to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into cutting short-term interest rates.

Yet the bump in inflation last month makes it more likely that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at the central bank's next meeting in two weeks. Powell has said that he wants to see how the economy reacts to Trump’s duties before reducing borrowing costs.

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core inflation increased 2.9% in June from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in May. On a monthly basis, it picked up 0.2% from May to June. Economists closely watch core prices because they typically provide a better sense of where inflation is headed.

The uptick in inflation was driven by a range of higher prices. The cost of gasoline rose 1% just from May to June, while grocery prices increased 0.3%. Appliance prices jumped for the third straight month. Toys, clothes, audio equipment, shoes, and sporting goods all got more expensive, and are all heavily imported.

“You are starting to see scattered bits of the tariff inflation regime filter in,” said Eric Winograd, chief economist at asset management firm AllianceBernstein, who added that the cost of long-lasting goods rose last month, compared with a year ago, for the first time in about three years.

Winograd also noted that housing costs, one of the biggest drivers of inflation since the pandemic, has continued to cool, which is holding down broader inflation. The cost of rent rose 3.8% in June compared with a year ago, the smallest yearly increase since late 2021.

“Were it not for the tariff uncertainty, the Fed would already be cutting rates,” Winograd said. “The question is whether there is more to come, and the Fed clearly thinks there is,” along with most economists.

Stock prices were mixed early, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes rising and the Dow Jones falling 154 points. Some investors were cheered by the fact that core prices rose less than forecast.

Some items got cheaper last month, including new and used cars, hotel rooms, and air fares. Travel prices have generally declined in recent months as fewer international tourists visit the U.S.

(to be continued)

Translation

經濟學家擔憂的關稅驅動型通貨膨漲開始顯現 (1/2)

華盛頓（美聯社）— 由於特朗普總統的全面關稅推高了包括家具、服裝和大型家電在內的一系列商品的價格，上個月通貨膨漲率升至自2月份以來的最高水平。

美國勞工部週二公佈，6月消費者物價指數年增2.7%，高於5月2.4%的年漲幅。以月計算，6月份價格較上季上漲0.3%，上個月僅上漲0.1%。

不斷惡化的通貨膨漲對特朗普構成了政治挑戰。他在去年的總統競選期間承諾立即降低成本，結果卻出乎意料地推出了一系列關稅措施，令企業和消費者感到擔憂。朗普已經宣布美國實際上不再存在通膨，並試圖向聯準會主席鮑威爾施壓，迫使其降低短期利率。

然而，上個月通膨率的飆升使得聯儲局在兩週後的下次會議上維持利率不變的可能性更大。鮑威爾表示，他希望先觀察經濟對特朗普措施的反應，然後再降低借貸成本。

剔除波動較大的食品和能源類別，6月核心通膨率年增2.9%，高於5月份的2.8%。以月計算，5月至6月核心通膨率上升了0.2%。經濟學家密切關注核心物價指數，因為它們通常能更好地反映通膨的走向。

通膨上升是由一系列價格上漲所推動的。光是從5月到6月，汽油價格就上漲了1%，而食品雜貨價格上漲了0.3%。家電價格連續第三個月上漲。玩具、服裝、音響設備、鞋子和體育用品的價格都上漲了，而且都大量進口。

AllianceBernstein 資產管理公司的首席經濟學家 Eric Winograd 表示：「你開始看到關稅通膨機制的零星影響逐漸顯現」; 他還補充說，上個月耐用品價格比上年上漲，這是大約三年來的首次。

Winograd 也指出，自疫情爆發以來，住房成本一直是通膨的最大驅動因素之一，而住房成本持續降溫，抑制了整體通膨。 6月房租年增3.8%，為2021年底以來的最小年度漲幅。

Winograd 表示：「如果不是因為關稅的不確定性，聯儲局會早就開始降息了。問題在於未來是否還會有更多降息，央行會顯然也認為會有」, 大多數經濟學家也持這種觀點。

股市早盤漲跌互現，標準普爾500指數和納斯達克指數上漲，道瓊斯指數下跌154點。核心價格漲幅低於預期，令一些投資者感到振奮。

上個月，一些商品價格下降，包括新車和二手車、酒店房租和機票。近幾個月來，由於赴美國際旅客減少，旅遊價格普遍下降。

（待續）