Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:
The key pillar of Russia's war chest is cracking. The
timing couldn't be worse.
Business Insider - Huileng Tan
Updated Wed, August 6, 2025 at 8:29 p.m. PDT·4 min read
Russia's revenue from oil and gas has plunged recently, putting further pressure on Moscow to end its war in Ukraine.
In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin's administration collected 787.3 billion rubles, or $9.8 billion, from oil and gas revenue — 27% lower than a year ago, according to the country's finance ministry on Tuesday.
That funding is now under threat on multiple fronts.
Last month, the European Union unveiled its 18th sanctions package against Russia. It replaced the fixed $60-per-barrel cap on Russian oil with a more flexible mechanism that limits prices to 15% below global market averages, effectively slashing Moscow's revenue on each exported barrel.
But the pressure isn't just coming from Europe.
Trump targets India over Russian oil
Last week, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and a "penalty" for its purchases of Russian oil.
"I think I'm going to raise that very substantially over the next 24 hours because they're buying Russian oil, they're fueling the war machine," Trump told CNBC in a Tuesday phone interview.
On Wednesday, the American president doubled that rate to 50%. The higher levy would take effect within 21 days.
India's external affairs ministry pushed back, saying on Monday that its energy imports are focused on ensuring "predictable and affordable energy costs" for Indian consumers.
Trump said last week that he wants a deal to end Russia's war with Ukraine by August 8.
"Putin will stop killing people if you get energy down another $10 a barrel. He's going to have no choice because his economy stinks," Trump told CNBC on Tuesday.
Even with Trump's ultimatum, Russia is likely to dig in its heels, according to Tatiana Orlova, a lead emerging markets economist at Oxford Economics.
"The Russian leadership seems to view the economy's resilience during the first three and a half years of war as proof that it is immune to further sanctions," Orlova wrote in a Wednesday note.
She estimates there's a 70% chance Russia continues the war.
If that happens, Washington is likely to respond with additional sanctions, particularly targeting Russia's energy sector, she said.
"The Russian economy is rapidly losing momentum, and additional 'biting' sanctions could tip it into recession, depending on the severity of the new measures," she added.
India could make a deal for trade relief
While most analysts believe India is unlikely to drastically
reduce its Russian oil intake, some say it could be used as a bargaining chip
in trade negotiations with Washington.
Varathan cited the "dire threat of unrelenting US geo-economic pressures" as a key factor in why Delhi could reduce dependency on Russian oil as part of a trade deal with Trump.
Crude oil futures rose briefly following Trump's tariff threats but ended Wednesday lower as weak fundamentals persist.
US crude oil futures are down about 10% year to date, with global supply remaining strong as OPEC ramps up output. Demand from China, a major importer, is also weak amid a prolonged economic slowdown.
Analysts at ING said the market could absorb modest price increases if India cuts Russian oil imports and shifts to other suppliers. But they warned broader pullbacks could be disruptive.
"If India were to stop buying Russian oil amid tariff threats, we believe the market would be able to cope with the loss of this supply," wrote commodities strategists at ING in a Wednesday note.
However, the bigger risk is if other major Russian oil buyers also start to avoid buying the commodity.
"This would require OPEC to tap into its spare production capacity quickly and aggressively to balance the market. This could result in significant further upside for prices," they wrote.
Translation
俄羅斯的軍事資金關鍵支柱正在崩潰。時機再糟糕不過了
俄羅斯的石油和天然氣收入近期大幅下降，這給莫斯科帶來了進一步的壓力，迫使其結束在烏克蘭的戰爭。
根據俄羅斯財政部週二公佈的數據，今年7月，俄羅斯總統普京政府的石油和天然氣收入為7,873億盧布，約合98億美元，比去年同期下降了27%。
能源稅收的下降進一步加劇了俄羅斯的預算壓力，今年上半年俄羅斯的預算赤字達到3.7兆盧布，佔GDP的1.7%。石油和天然氣對俄羅斯經濟以及已進入第四年的戰爭資金仍然至關重要。
這些資金目前正面臨多方面的威脅。
上個月，歐盟公佈了針對俄羅斯的第18項制裁方案。該方案取代了對俄羅斯石油每桶60美元的固定上限，取而代之的是一套更靈活的機制，將價格限制在全球市場平均以下15%，這實際上大幅削減了莫斯科每桶出口石油的收入。
但壓力不僅來自歐洲。
特朗普就俄羅斯石油問題瞄準印度
最近，特朗普加強了針對購買俄羅斯石油國家的措辭和貿易威脅，並將印度 - 即俄羅斯石油的最大買家 - 特別強調提及。
上週，特朗普宣布對印度商品徵收25%的關稅，並對其購買俄羅斯石油處以「罰款」。
特朗普在周二接受CNBC電話採訪時表示： “我認為我將在未來24小時內大幅提高稅率，因為他們正在購買俄羅斯石油，他們正在為戰爭機器提供燃料。”
週三，美國總統將稅率翻倍至50%。較高的稅率將在21天內生效。
印度外交部週一反駁稱，其能源進口的重點是確保印度消費者獲得「可預測且可負擔的能源成本」。
特朗普上週表示，他希望在8月8日前達成協議，結束俄羅斯與烏克蘭的戰爭。
特朗普週二告訴CNBC： “如果能源價格再下降10美元/桶，普京就會停止殺人。他將別無選擇，因為他的經濟狀況十分糟糕。”
牛津經濟研究院首席新興市場經濟學家 Tatiana Orlova 表示，即使特朗普發出最後通牒，俄羅斯仍可能堅持己見。
Orlova 在周三的一份報告中寫道： “俄羅斯領導層似乎將俄羅斯經濟在戰爭前三年半的韌性視為其不受進一步製裁影響的證據。”
她估計，俄羅斯繼續戰爭的可能性為70%。
她表示，如果發生這種情況，華盛頓可能會採取進一步製裁措施，特別是針對俄羅斯的能源領域。
她補充說： “俄羅斯經濟正在迅速失去動力，額外的 ‘嚴厲’制裁可能會使其陷入衰退，這取決於新措施的嚴重程度。”
印度或將達成減輕貿易損失的協議
雖然大多數分析師認為印度不太可能大幅減少對俄羅斯石油的進口，但一些人表示，這可以作為與華盛頓進行貿易談判的籌碼。
Mizuho的亞洲（不包括日本）宏觀研究主管 Vishnu Varathan 寫道：「作為一項大協議的一部分，減少俄羅斯石油進口量並不奇怪，因為自2022年以來，俄羅斯原油在印度總進口量中的佔比已從微不足道飆升至約38%。」
Varathan 指出，「美國持續不斷的地緣經濟壓力帶來的可怕威脅」是印度在與特朗普達成貿易協議的過程中可能減少對俄羅斯石油依賴的關鍵因素。
在特朗普發出關稅威脅後，原油期貨一度上漲，但由於基本面持續疲軟，週三收盤走低。
美國原油期貨價格今年迄今下跌約10%，隨著 OPEC 增產，全球供應仍強勁。在經濟長期放緩的背景下，主要進口國中國的需求也較為疲軟。
ING 分析師們表示，如果印度減少從俄羅斯的石油進口並轉向其他供應國，市場可以消化小幅價格上漲。但他們警告稱，更廣泛的回調可能會造成破壞性影響。
ING大宗商品策略師們在周三的一份報告中寫道： “如果印度在關稅威脅下停止購買俄羅斯石油，我們相信市場將能夠應對供應減少的損失。”
然而，更大的風險在於其他主要的俄羅斯石油買家是否也開始避免購買這商品。
他們寫道： “這將需要OPEC迅速而積極地利用其閒置產能來平衡市場。這可能會導致油價進一步大幅上漲。”
So, Russia's
revenue from oil and gas has plunged recently, putting further pressure on
Moscow to end its war in Ukraine. In July, Putin's administration collected
$9.8 billion from oil and gas revenue which was 27% lower than a year ago. The
decline in energy tax revenue strains Russia's budget further. Oil and gas are vital to Russia's economy and its war effort.
Apparently, Putin needs to handle the situation carefully.
Note:
1. In investing or market
analysis, a 'broader pullback' refers to a decline in prices across the
market or within a sector, usually due to market sentiment or economic factors.
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