經濟學家擔憂的關稅驅動型通貨膨漲開始顯現 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The tariff-driven inflation that economists feared begins to emerge (2/2)

The Associated Press - Christopher Rugaber and Josh Boak

Tue, July 15, 2025 at 7:53 a.m. PDT·6 min read

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The report set up a broader political battle over Trump’s tariffs, a fight that will ultimately be determined by how the U.S. public feels about their cost of living and whether the president is making good on his 2024 promise that his agenda would help the middle class.

The White House pushed back on claims that the report showed a negative impact from tariffs, since the cost of new cars were down despite the 25% tariffs on autos and 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. The administration also noted that despite the June bump in apparel prices, clothing prices are still cheaper than they were three months ago.

“Consumer Prices LOW,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Bring down the Fed Rate, NOW!!!”

For Democratic lawmakers, the inflation report confirmed their warnings over the past several months that Trump’s tariffs would push up inflation. Their argument on Tuesday was that the situation will likely get even more painful given the size of the tariff rates in the letters that Trump posted over the past week.

“For those saying we have not seen the impact of Trump’s tariff wars, look at today’s data. Americans continue to struggle with the costs of groceries and rent — and now prices of food and appliances are rising,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. "Families were already getting crushed, and the president’s making it worse.”

Trump has imposed sweeping duties of 10% on all imports plus 30% on goods from China. Just last week the president threatened to hit the European Union with a new 30% tariff starting Aug. 1.

He has also threatened to slap 50% duties on Brazil, which would push up the cost of orange juice and coffee. Orange prices leaped 3.5% just from May to June, and are 3.4% higher than a year ago, the government said Tuesday.

Overall, grocery prices rose 0.3% last month and are up 2.4% from a year earlier. While that is a much smaller annual increase than before the pandemic, it is slightly bigger than the pre-pandemic pace of food price increases. The Trump administration has also placed a 17% duty on Mexican tomatoes.

The acceleration in inflation could provide a respite of sorts for Fed Chair Powell, who has come under increasingly heavy fire from the White House for not cutting the benchmark interest rate.

The Fed chair has said that the duties could both push up prices and slow the economy, a tricky combination for the central bank since higher costs would typically lead the Fed to hike rates while a weaker economy often spurs it to reduce them.

Trump on Monday said that Powell has been “terrible” and “doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing.” The president added that the economy was doing well despite Powell’s refusal to reduce rates, but it would be “nice” if there were rate cuts “because people would be able to buy housing a lot easier.”

Last week, White House officials also attacked Powell for cost overruns on the years-long renovation of two Fed buildings, which are now slated to cost $2.5 billion, roughly one-third more than originally budgeted. While Trump legally can't fire Powell just because he disagrees with his interest rate decisions, the Supreme Court has signaled, he may be able to do so “for cause,” such as misconduct or mismanagement.

Some companies have said they have or plan to raise prices as a result of the tariffs, including Walmart, the world's largest retailer. Automaker Mitsubishi said last month that it was lifting prices by an average of 2.1% in response to the duties, and Nike has said it would implement “surgical” price hikes to offset tariff costs.

But many companies have been able to postpone or avoid price increases, after building up their stockpiles of goods this spring to get ahead of the duties. Other firms may have refrained from lifting prices while they wait to see whether the U.S. is able to reach trade deals with other countries that lower the duties.

Translation

經濟學家擔憂的關稅驅動型通貨膨漲開始顯現 (2/2)

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該報告引發了一場圍繞特朗普關稅的更廣泛的政治鬥爭，這場鬥爭最終將取決於美國公眾對生活成本的感受，以及總統的計劃是否兌現了他在2024年提出的幫助中產階級的承諾。

白宮駁斥了該報告顯示關稅帶來負面影響的說法，因為儘管對汽車徵收25%的關稅，對鋼鐵和鋁徵收50%的關稅，但新車價格仍然下降。政府也指出，儘管6月服飾價格上漲，衣服價格仍比三個月前便宜。

特朗普在 Truth Social 上發文表示： “消費者價格在低水平。現在就降低美聯儲利率！！！”

對民主黨議員來說，這份通膨報告證實了他們過去幾個月發出的警告，特朗普的關稅將推高通膨。他們週二的觀點是，鑑於特朗普過去一周發布的信函中關稅稅率的規模，情況可能會變得更糟。

馬薩諸塞州民主黨參議員 Elizabeth Warren 說道: 「對於那些說我們尚未看到特朗普關稅戰影響的人，看看今天的數據。美國人仍在為食品雜貨和房租的開支苦苦掙扎 - 現在食品和家電的價格還在上漲」; 「家庭已經不堪重負，而總統的舉動更是雪上加霜」。

特朗普已對所有進口商品徵收10%的全面關稅，並對來自中國的商品徵收30%的關稅。就在上週，總統威脅將從8月1日起對歐盟徵收30%的新關稅。

他還威脅要對巴西徵收50%的關稅，這將推高橙汁和咖啡的價格。美國政府週二表示，橘子價格僅從5月到6月就上漲了3.5%，比去年同期上漲了3.4%。

整體而言，上個月食品雜貨價格上漲了0.3%，比去年同期上漲了2.4%。雖然這一年漲幅遠低於疫情前的水平，但略高於疫情前的食品價格漲幅步伐。特朗普政府也對墨西哥番茄徵收了17%的關稅。

通膨加速上漲或許能為聯儲局主席鮑威爾帶來一些喘息的機會。鮑威爾因未下調基準利率而受到白宮日益嚴厲的批評。

這位聯儲局主席表示，關稅既可能推高物價，也可能拖累經濟成長。這對央行來說是一個棘手的組合，因為成本上升通常會導致聯儲局升息，而經濟疲軟往往會促使聯儲局降息。

特朗普週一表示，鮑威爾 “糟糕透頂” ， “根本不知道他在做什麼” 。總統補充說，儘管鮑威爾拒絕降息，但經濟狀況依然良好，但如果降息就 “更好” ， “因為人們將能夠更容易買房” 。

上週，白宮官員也抨擊鮑威爾，稱其對兩座聯儲局大樓進行了多年的翻修，導致成本超支。目前，翻修工程預計耗資25億美元，比最初預算高出約三分之一。最高法院已暗示，特朗普不能僅僅因為鮑威爾不同意他的利率決定就解僱他，但他或許可以“出於合理原因” ，例如不當行為或管理不善來解僱他。

一些公司表示，由於關稅，他們已經或計劃提高價格，其中包括全球最大的零售商沃爾瑪。汽車製造商三菱上個月表示，為應對關稅，產品價格平均上調了2.1%，Nike 表示將實施「外科手術式」漲價，以抵銷關稅成本。

但許多公司在今年春季囤積了庫存以應對關稅，從而得以推遲或避免漲價。其他公司可能正在觀望美國能否與其他國家達成降低關稅的貿易協定，而暫時沒有漲價。

So, US inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as Trump’s sweeping tariffs push up the cost of a range of goods, including furniture, clothing, and large appliances. Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May. Apparently, worsening inflation is posing a political challenge for Trump.