美歐貿易協定的贏家和輸家是誰？ （1/2）

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Who are the winners and losers in US-EU trade deal? (1/2)

BBC News - James FitzGerald and Tom Geoghegan -

Mon, July 28, 2025 at 6:14 a.m. PDT·6 min read

The US and EU have struck what is being billed as the largest trade deal in history, after talks in Scotland.

It actually resembles the framework for an agreement rather than a full trade deal, with details still unclear.

But the headline figures announced by President Donald Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen do offer clues about which sectors and groups could be hit hardest or have most to gain.

Trump - winner

After promising new trade deals with dozens of countries, Trump has just landed the biggest of them all.

It looks to most commentators that the EU has given up more, with instant analysis by Capital Economics suggesting a 0.5% knock to GDP.

There will also be tens of billions of dollars pouring into US coffers in import taxes.

But the glowing headlines for Trump may not last long if a slew of economic data due later this week show that his radical reshaping of the US economy is backfiring.

Figures on inflation, jobs, growth and consumer confidence will give a clearer picture on whether Trump's tariffs are delivering pain or gain.

US consumers - loser

Ordinary Americans are already aggrieved at the increased cost of living and this deal could add to the burden by hiking prices on EU goods.

While not as steep as it could have been, the hurdle represented by a 15% tariff rate is still significant, and it is far more pronounced than the obstacles that existed before Trump returned to office.

Tariffs are taxes charged on goods bought from other countries. Typically, they are a percentage of a product's value. So, a 15% tariff means that a $100 product imported to the US from the EU will have a $15 dollar tax added on top - taking the total cost to the importer to $115.

Companies who bring foreign goods into the US have to pay the tax to the government, and they often pass some or all of the extra cost on to customers.

Markets - winner

Stock markets in Asia and Europe rose on Monday after news emerged of the deal framework.

Under the framework, the US will levy a 15% tariff on goods imported from the EU. While this rate is significant, it is less than what it could have been and at least offers certainty for investors.

The agreement is "clearly market-friendly, and should put further upside potential into the euro", Chris Weston at Pepperstone, an Australian broker, told AFP.

European solidarity - loser

The deal will need to be signed off by all 27 members of the EU, each of which have differing interests and levels of reliance on the export of goods to the US.

While some members have given the agreement a cautious welcome, others have been critical - hinting at divisions within the bloc, which is also trying to respond to other crises such as the ongoing war in Ukraine.

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou commented: "It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission."

He was joined by at least two other French government ministers as well as Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader, who said that Trump "ate von der Leyen for breakfast".

(to be continued)

Translation 

美歐貿易協定的贏家和輸家是誰？ （1/2）

在蘇格蘭會談後，美國和歐盟達成了一項號稱史上最大的貿易協議。

該協議實際上更像是一個框架協議，而非完整的貿易協議，具體細節尚不清楚。

但美國總統特朗普和歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩公佈的頭條數據確實提供了一些線索，顯示哪些產業和群體可能受到的衝擊最大，哪些群體將獲益最多。

特朗普 -- 贏家

在承諾與數十個國家達成新的貿易協議後，特朗普剛剛取得了其中最大的一項協議。

在大多數評論家看來，歐盟的損失更大，Capital Economics 的即時分析顯示，該協議將對GDP造成0.5%的衝擊。

數百億美元的進口稅也將湧入美國國庫。

但如果本週稍後公佈的一系列經濟數據顯示，特朗普對美國經濟的徹底重塑帶來反效果，那麼特朗普的樂觀前景可能不會持續太久。

通貨膨脹、就業、經濟成長和消費者信心等數據將更清楚地表明特朗普的關稅政策是帶來痛苦還是好處。

美國消費者 -- 輸家

一般美國人已經對生活成本的上漲感到憤憤不平，而這項協議可能會因高歐盟商品的價格而加重他們的負擔。

雖然15%的關稅稅率沒有想像中那麼高，但它帶來的障礙仍然很大，而且比特朗普上任前的障礙更突出。

關稅是對從其他國家購買的商品徵收的稅。通常，關稅是產品價值的一定百分比。因此，15% 的關稅意味著從歐盟進口到美國的價值 100 美元的產品將額外加收 15 美元的稅款，使進口商的總成本達到 115 美元。

將外國商品進口到美國的公司必須向政府繳納稅款，而且他們通常會將部分或全部額外成本轉嫁給消費者。

市場 -- 贏家

在協議框架消息傳出後，亞洲和歐洲股市週一上漲。

根據該框架，美國將對從歐盟進口的商品徵收 15% 的關稅。雖然這個稅率很高，但它低於原本可能的水平，至少為投資者提供了確定性。

澳洲經紀商 Pepperstone 的 Chris Weston 告訴法新社，該協議「顯然對市場有利，應該會給歐元帶來進一步的上漲潛力」。

歐洲團結 -- 輸家

該協議需要歐盟所有27個成員國簽署，每個成員國的利益和對美國商品出口的依賴程度各不相同。

雖然一些成員國對該協議表示謹慎歡迎，但其他成員國則持批評態度，暗示歐盟內部存在分歧，並要努力應對其他危機，例如持續不斷的烏克蘭戰爭。

法國總理 Francois Bayrou 評論道：“一個由自由人民組成的聯盟，為了共同價值觀和捍衛共同利益而團結在一起，屈服於面對的處境，這真是黑暗的一天。”

至少還有兩名法國政府部長以及匈牙利領導人歐爾班也同意，稱特朗普「把馮德萊恩當早餐吃了」。

（待續）