中國GDP增速料超目標，緩解刺激措施的壓力（2/2）

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China’s GDP Seen Outpacing Target, Easing Stimulus Pressure (2/2)

Bloomberg News

Mon, July 14, 2025 at 4:34 a.m. PDT·6 min read

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What Bloomberg Economics Says:

The subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($503) per birth a year are likely too modest to stem a decline in new births, but can be useful in boosting sentiment and consumption. And we continue to hold the view that the program should be expanded to all children to spur spending — as the economy badly needs to revive domestic demand to counter a deteriorating external environment.

— Eric Zhu, economist.

Industry, Anti-Involution

Industrial production probably rose 5.6% in June, the slowest pace since November, according to the survey. Things could improve in the coming months after new orders returned to growth in June following two straight months of contraction, thanks to the tariff truce.

Still, humming production lines don’t always translate into stronger earnings. Excess capacity continues to drive a supply glut, weighing on prices. Profits at China’s industrial firms fell 1.1% in the first five months despite rising output, underscoring deflationary pressures and the need to tackle overcapacity.

At a high-level meeting earlier this month, leaders vowed to curb “involution,” or cutthroat competition among firms, raising hopes that Beijing is stepping up efforts to end the years-long price wars dragging on growth.

“The renewed focus on anti-involution is a step in the right direction,” Morgan Stanley economists including Robin Xing wrote in a Thursday report.

They cautioned that progress would likely be slower than a similar campaign a decade ago, given the “fundamentally more difficult” industrial and macroeconomic backdrop. The bank sees deflation persisting into next year.

Investment

Fixed-asset investment is expected to have risen 3.6% year-on-year in the first six months, slightly weaker than the pace over January to May. The property market contraction likely continued, with real estate investment estimated to have tumbled 10.9%, marking a new low since the start of the pandemic.

Speculation is growing that a high-level government meeting could be held this week to shore up the struggling property sector, fueling a rally in Chinese developer stocks.

The government has been front-loading fiscal aid already planned this year to give the economy an early boost. In the second half, the central government has a total 745 billion yuan of ultra-long special sovereign bonds to sell and provinces still have more than 2 trillion yuan in annual special bond quota available, according to earlier reports by state media.

Beijing also has room to do more. The Citi economists said authorities could revive the Pledged Supplementary Lending facility or other related policy financing tools, potentially delivering up to 500 billion yuan in quasi-fiscal stimulus by the end of December.

While China’s growth may have held up in the first half, Nomura economists including Lu Ting warned of a looming “demand cliff” over the rest of the year, driven by factors such as the reining in of industrial overcapacity, weaker export momentum and continued real estate troubles.

“Beijing needs to take bolder actions to clean up the mess in the property sector, support consumption in a more sustainable way by reforming the pension system, fix the fiscal system to better protect business owners and improve its relationships with other economies,” they wrote in a recent note.

Translation

中國GDP增速料超目標，緩解刺激措施的壓力（2/2）

（繼續）

彭博經濟評論：

每年每個新生兒 3,600元（503美元）的補貼可能過於溫和，不足以遏制新生兒數量下降，但有助於提振情緒和消費。我們仍然認為，該計劃應該擴大到所有兒童，以刺激消費 - 因為中國經濟迫切需要重振內需，以應對不斷惡化的外部環境。

——經濟學家 Eric Zhu

工業，反內捲

調查顯示，6月工業生產可能成長5.6%，為11月以來的最低成長速度。由於關稅休戰，新訂單在連續兩個月萎縮後，6月將恢復成長，未來幾個月情況可能會有所改善。

然而，生產線的高效運作並不一定意味著更高的獲利。產能過剩持續導致供應過剩，對價格構成壓力。儘管產量有所成長，但中國工業企業在前五個月獲利下降了1.1%，凸顯了通貨緊縮壓力和化解產能過剩的必要性。

在本月初的一次高層會議上，領導人誓言要遏制 “內捲” ， 即企業間的惡性競爭，這讓人們燃起了希望，認為北京方面正在加大力度，結束多年來拖累經濟增長的價格戰。

摩根士丹利經濟學家包括 Robin Xing 在周四的一份報告中寫道： “重新關注 ‘內捲’是朝著正確方向邁出的一步。”

他們警告稱，在「根本上更加困難」的工業和宏觀經濟背景之下，這次行動的進展可能比十年前的類似行動要慢。摩根士丹利預計通貨緊縮將持續到明年。

 

投資

預計上半年固定資產投資年增 3.6%，略低於1-5月增速。房地產市場萎縮可能持續，房地產投資估計下降10.9%，創下疫情爆發以來的新低。

越來越多的猜測稱，本周可能會舉行一次高層政府會議，以提振陷入困境的房地產行業，這推動了中國開發商股價的上漲。

政府一直提前實施今年已規劃的財政援助措施，以提振經濟。根據官方媒體先前報道，下半年中央政府將發行總額為 7,450億元人民幣的超長期特別主權債券，各省仍有超過2兆元人民幣的年度特別債券額度可用。

北京方面也仍有進一步行動的空間。花旗經濟學家表示，當局可能會重啟抵押貸款補充貸款安排（PLL）或其他相關政策性融資工具，到12月底可能提供高達 5,000億元人民幣的準財政刺激措施。

儘管中國經濟在上半年可能保持成長，但包括 Lu Ting 在內的野村經濟學家警告稱，受工業產能過剩控制、出口勢頭減弱以及房地產市場持續低迷等因素的影響，今年剩餘時間可能出現「需求懸崖」。

他們在最近的一份報告中寫道： “北京方面需要採取更大膽的措施，清理房地產行業的亂象，通過改革養老金制度以更可持續的方式支持消費，完善財政體係以更好地保護企業企業所有者，並改善與其他經濟體的關係。”

              So, China’s economy is likely to expand just above the government’s full-year growth target in the second quarter, easing pressure on Beijing to roll out additional stimulus for now. Some economists have cautioned that the road to an economic recovery would likely be slower than a similar campaign initiated a decade ago.  Apparently, Beijing needs to take bolder actions to clean up the property sector, to  reform the pension system, to fix the fiscal system to better protect business owners,  and to improve its relationships with other economies.

Note:

1.Quasi-fiscal stimulus (準財政刺激) refers to the use of non-traditional fiscal policy tools, such as loans, grants or other similar measures by the government or related institutions to promote economic growth or stabilize the market, rather than direct public spending. This approach is usually expected to be used to support specific sectors or economic activities. (ChatGPT)

2. In economics, a demand cliff (需求懸崖)refers to a situation when demand suddenly drops sharply, often due to market changes or reduced consumer confidence, which can affect business decisions when planning production or sales strategies. (ChatGPT)