2025年8月22日 星期五

New Study: Lithium May Prevent Alzheimer's Disease in Aging Brains

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

高齢の脳、リチウムでアルツハイマー病防げる可能性 新研究

2025.08.08 Fri posted at 16:30 JST

(CNN) ほぼ10年がかりの大規模な調査の中で、ハーバード大学医科大学院の研究者らがアルツハイマー病と脳の老化に関する多くの謎を解く可能性のある一つの鍵を発見したと主張している。その鍵とはごく平凡な金属、リチウムだ。

リチウムと言えば、医療の世界では気分安定剤として非常によく知られる。双極性障害やうつ病の患者がこれを服用する。米食品医薬品局(FDA)がリチウムを承認したのは1970年だが、医師らはそれよりも100年近く前から気分障害の治療に使用していた。

今回、研究者らは初めて微量のリチウムが体内に自然と存在することを明らかにした。細胞が正常に機能するにはリチウムが必要で、その点ではビタミンCや鉄分に非常に近い。また脳の健康維持にも極めて重要な役割を果たしていると考えられる。

6日付の科学誌ネイチャーが伝えた一連の実験の中で、ハーバード大とラッシュ大の研究者らは、リチウムを大幅に減らした餌を与えた正常なマウスの脳が炎症を起こすのを突き止めた。老化の加速に関係する変化も発生したとしている。

特別な餌を与え、アルツハイマー病を患った人間と同種の変化が脳に及ぶようにしたマウスの場合、粘着性のあるたんぱく質の蓄積が加速した。これにより脳内でプラーク(斑)や繊維状の塊を形成するのがアルツハイマー病の特徴で、記憶力の低下にも拍車が掛かるという。

一方で正常なリチウムレベルを維持したマウスの場合は、年を取ってもアルツハイマー病と関係のある脳の変化を防ぐことができた。

より詳しい研究で今回の結果が裏付けられれば、アルツハイマー病の新たな治療や診断に向けた扉が開けるかもしれない。米疾病対策センター(CDC)によれば、米国では推計で高齢の成人670万人がアルツハイマー病を患っている。

今回の研究で人間と動物の脳細胞を詳しく検証し、遺伝子調査も行ったところ、進行中と思われるメカニズムが明らかになった。

アルツハイマー病患者の脳に蓄積するアミロイドベータプラークは、リチウムに結合し、それを抑え込む。通常体内に存在するリチウムにも、処方されたリチウムにもそうした作用が及ぶ。これにより近隣の細胞にとって利用可能なリチウムは枯渇する。脳内の重要な「掃除人」として知られる免疫細胞、ミクログリアに関しても同様だ。

脳が健康で正常に働いていれば、ミクログリアはアミロイドベータが蓄積し、害をもたらす前にこれを除去する。研究チームの実験において、リチウム不足のマウスの脳にいるミクログリアはアミロイドベータを除去、貪食する能力が低下していることが分かった。

ハーバード医科大学の遺伝学教授、ブルース・ヤンクナー博士は、これが悪循環を生み出すと考える。アミロイドベータの蓄積が一段と多くのリチウムを吸い上げ、それを除去する脳の能力がさらに失われていく。

ヤンクナー氏と同僚らは異なるリチウム化合物をテストし、オロチン酸リチウムがアミロイドベータに結合しないことを突き止めた。

脳にアルツハイマー病の兆候を示すマウスにオロチン酸リチウムを与えたところ、上記の変化は逆転。脳の記憶中枢を抑え込んでいたアミロイドベータと神経原線維変化は減少した。リチウムを与えられたマウスは、再び迷路を進むことができるようになり、新しい物体の認識が可能になった。一方、プラセボ(偽薬)を与えられたマウスには、記憶と思考の欠如に変化は見られなかった。

リチウムは自然界に存在する金属元素で、食物や水にも含まれる。

リチウムで気分が改善する仕組みは分かっていないが、リチウムをふんだんに含んだ温泉は治癒力があるとして、健康志向の人々が好んで訪れる。

一方で処方されたリチウムを服用することで、甲状腺や腎臓に有害な影響が生じる場合もある。

低用量のオロチン酸リチウムを与えられた上記のマウスに、そうした健康被害の兆候は現れなかった。しかし、マウスと人間は違うとヤンクナー氏は指摘。人間でも同じ結果を再現し、服用に適した用量を見極める必要があるとした。

ヤンクナー氏によると、通常人間の体内に存在するリチウムや今回マウスに与えられたリチウムの量は、双極性障害の治療で処方される量の1000分の1だという。

今回の研究は、アルツハイマー病に対するリチウムの効能を示唆した過去の研究を裏付けるものとなる。2017年に発表されたデンマークでの大規模な研究では、高レベルのリチウムを含む飲料水を摂取する人々は、通常の低レベルのリチウムを含んだ水道水を飲む人々と比較して認知症の診断を受ける確率が低いことが分かった。

22年に発表された英国での大規模研究でも、リチウムを処方された人々は対照群よりもアルツハイマー病の診断を受ける公算が半分に低下するとの結果が出ており、リチウムの持つ予防効果が示唆されていた。

Translation

New Study: Lithium May Prevent Alzheimer's Disease in Aging Brains

(CNN) After nearly a decade of extensive research, researchers at Harvard Medical School claimed to have discovered a key that might unlock many mysteries surrounding Alzheimer's disease and brain aging. That key was a very ordinary metal: lithium.

Lithium was best known in the medical world as a mood stabilizer, taken by patients with bipolar disorder and depression. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved lithium in 1970, but doctors had been using it to treat mood disorders for nearly 100 years ago.

Researchers had now, for the first time, demonstrated that trace amount of lithium existed naturally in the body. Cells required lithium for proper functioning, much like vitamin C and iron. It also appeared to play a crucial role in maintaining brain health.

In a series of experiments reported in the scientific journal Nature on the 6th, researchers from Harvard and Rush University found that normal mice fed a diet significantly reduced in lithium would develop brain inflammation. They also experienced changes associated with accelerated aging.

Mice fed with such a special diet experienced accelerated accumulation of sticky proteins that caused brain changes that were similar to those seen in humans with Alzheimer's disease. This led to the formation of plaques and fibrous masses in the brain which was a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease and accelerated memory decline.

Mice that maintained normal lithium levels, on the other hand, were able to avoid brain changes associated with Alzheimer's disease as they aged.

If these findings were confirmed through further research, they could open the door to new treatments and diagnostics for Alzheimer's disease. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), an estimated 6.7 million older adults in the United States suffered from Alzheimer's disease.

During the process of this study which examined human and animal brain cells in detail that included genetic studies, a working mechanism thought to be in progress was revealed.

Amyloid beta plaques that accumulated in the brains of Alzheimer's disease patients bound to lithium and thus suppressed. This also applied to lithium normally present in the body and also to those prescribed lithium. This binding depleted the lithium available to nearby cells. The same was true for microglia, the immune cells known as the brain's key "cleaners."

When the brain was healthy and functioning properly, microglia accumulated amyloid beta, eliminated it before it caused harm. In the research team's experiments, microglia in the brains of lithium-deficient mice removed amyloid beta, yet it was found that its ability to devour had declined.

Dr. Bruce Yankner, professor of genetics at Harvard Medical School, believed this had created a vicious cycle. The accumulation of amyloid beta absorbed even more lithium, the brain's ability to remove it was further lost.

Yankner and his colleagues tested different lithium compounds and found that lithium orotate did not bind to amyloid beta.

When mice that showed signs of Alzheimer's disease were given lithium orotate, the above changes were reversed. Amyloid-beta and neurofibrillary tangles, which had suppressed the brain's memory center, decreased. Mice that were given lithium were able to navigate mazes again, and could recognize new objects. Meanwhile, mice given a placebo (fake drug) showed no change in their memory and thinking deficits.

Lithium was a metallic element that existed naturally and could be found in food and water.

While the working mechanism by which lithium improved mood was unknown, lithium-rich hot springs were popular among health-conscious people for their therapeutic properties.

Prescription lithium, however, could have harmful effects on the thyroid and kidneys.

The mice given low doses of lithium orotate showed no signs of these health problems. However, Yankner pointed out that mice and human were different. It was necessary for human to reproduce the same results and to determine the appropriate dosage.

Yankner said the amount of lithium normally found in the human body and the amount given to the mice in this study was 1/1000th of the amount prescribed for the treatment of bipolar disorder.

This study supported previous research suggesting lithium's effectiveness in treating Alzheimer's disease.  A large-scale study in Denmark published in 2017 found that people who consumed drinking water with high levels of lithium were less likely to be diagnosed with dementia compared to those who drank tap water typically with low level of lithium.

A large-scale UK study published in 2022 also found that people prescribed lithium were half as likely to be diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease as the control group, suggesting lithium's preventive effects.

              So, researchers have demonstrated that a very small amount of lithium exists naturally in the body. Cells require lithium for proper functioning, much like vitamin C and iron. It also appears to play a crucial role in maintaining brain health. Mice that maintain normal lithium levels are able to avoid brain changes associated with Alzheimer's disease as they aged. Yet mice and human are different and apparently further studies are needed.

Note:

1. Dr. Bruce A. Yankner is a Professor of Genetics and Neurology at Harvard Medical School. He also serves as the Director of the Harvard Neurodegeneration Training Program and is the Co-Director of the Paul F. Glenn Center for the Biology of Aging. (Sider Fusion)

2025年8月20日 星期三

經過 Sam Altman 多年的炒作宣傳,OpenAI 的 GPT-5 終於正式上線並免費向所有人開放 - 以下是它的功能

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

OpenAI's GPT-5 is live and free for all after years of hype by Sam Altman. Here's what it can do.

Business Insider - Lakshmi Varanasi,Brent D. Griffiths,Jyoti Mann,Robert Scammell

Updated Thu, August 7, 2025 at 11:40 a.m. PDT·3 min read

After weeks of relentless hype, GPT-5 is finally here.

OpenAI officially released the highly anticipated new model on Thursday. It's the latest version of ChatGPT, the company's flagship chatbot, and the most widely used AI model on the market.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called it a "major upgrade" and "a significant step along the path of AGI" in a conference call with journalists on Wednesday. He said that after using GPT-5, going back to GPT-4 was "miserable."

OpenAI says the model will be available for free for everyone and that users will no longer need to switch between previous models for different tasks. GPT-5 will switch automatically, the company said, depending on the kind of request and its complexity. GPT-5 will be available in standard, mini, and nano versions. Paid users will have higher usage limits.

Altman said GPT-5 was also the company's fastest model yet.

"One of the things I had been pushing the team on was like, 'Hey, we need to make it way, way faster,'" Altman said. "And I now have this experience of like, 'Are you sure you thought enough?'"

The team said GPT-5 will have improved capabilities for vibe coding, the latest craze in Silicon Valley.

OpenAI has been teasing this next iteration of ChatGPT for over a year, but has ramped up the chatter in the last few days and weeks. On Sunday, Altman shared a screenshot of GPT-5 on X, asking the model to recommend the "most thought-provoking" TV show about AI.

In July, Altman said that "GPT-5 is smarter than us in almost every way." Speaking to podcaster Theo Von, Altman said he asked GPT-5 a question he "didn't quite understand" and it "answered it perfectly," making him feel "useless relative to the AI."

The OpenAI CEO also likened GPT-5's development to the Manhattan Project, the US government's effort to build the atomic bomb during World War II, and said that it made him feel nervous.

"There are moments in the history of science, where you have a group of scientists look at their creation and just say, you know: 'What have we done?'" Altman said.

OpenAI's last notable model launch was GPT-4.5 in February, which Altman described at the time as "the first model that feels like talking to a thoughtful person."

The release of GPT-5 has faced several delays, with the timeline shifting from mid-2024 to mid-2025, to August.

During that time, the number of ChatGPT users has continued to grow. In April, Altman said ChatGPT had 500 million weekly active users. OpenAI said on Thursday that ChatGPT is now on track to hit 700 million weekly active users "this week."

Translation

經過 Sam Altman 多年的炒作宣傳,OpenAI GPT-5 終於正式上線並免費向所有人開放 - 以下是它的功能

經過數週的持續宣傳,GPT-5 終於來了。

OpenAI 於週四正式發布了備受期待的新模型。這是該公司旗艦聊天機器人 ChatGPT 的最新版本,也是市場上最廣泛使用的 AI 模型。

OpenAI 執行長 Sam Altman 在周三與記者的電話會議上稱其為一次「重大升級」和「在通用人工智慧 (AGI) 道路上邁出的重要一步」。他表示,在使用 GPT-5 之後,回到 GPT-4 感覺「很悲」。

OpenAI 表示,該模型將免費向所有人開放,用戶無需再在不同任務之間切換先前的模型。該公司表示,GPT-5 將根據請求的類型及其複雜程度自動切換。 GPT-5 將提供標準版、迷你版和奈米版。付費用戶將有更少的使用限制。

Altman 表示,GPT-5 也是該公司迄今為止速度最快的模型。

Altman : 「我一直督促團隊的事情之一是,『嘿,我們需要令它大幅提速』; 「我現在有類似這樣的經歷:您確定認為已經夠了嗎?

團隊表示,GPT-5 將改善對氛圍編碼(矽谷最新熱潮)的功能。

OpenAI 一年多來一直在預告 ChatGPT 的下一代版本,但在最近幾天和幾週內,它的熱度有所提升。週日,Altman X 上分享了 GPT-5 的截圖,要求該模型推薦一部「最發人深省」的 AI 電視節目。

今年 7 月,Altman 表示「GPT-5 幾乎在所有方面都比我們聰明」。Altman 在接受播客 Theo Von 採訪時表示他向 GPT-5 提出了一個 不太理解的問題,而 GPT-5 “完美地回答了,這讓他覺得自己 在相比 AI 之下一無是處

這位 OpenAI 執行長也將 GPT-5 的開發比作曼哈頓計劃(二戰期間美國政府為製造原子彈所做的努力),並表示這讓他感到緊張。

Altman : 「在科學史上,總有那麼一刻,一群科學家看著他們的成果,然後問:『我們做了什麼?』」

OpenAI 上一次值得關注的模型發佈是 2 月份的 GPT-4.5Altman 當時將其描述為「第一個感覺像在與一位深思熟慮的人交談的模型」。

GPT-5 的發布經歷了幾次延期,時間表從 2024 年中期推遲到 2025 年中期,最終推遲到 8 月。

在此期間,ChatGPT 的用戶數量持續增長。今年 4 月,Altman 表示 ChatGPT 的每周活躍用戶已達 5 億。 OpenAI 週四表示,ChatGPT 預計將在「本週」達到 7 億每週活躍用戶。

              So, OpenAI has officially released the highly anticipated new model. Recently, the number of ChatGPT users continues to grow. In April, Altman said ChatGPT had 500 million weekly active users. Recently, it is on track to hit 700 million weekly active users. Apparently, ChatGPT is gaining popularity in these days.

Note:

1. Vibe coding (氛圍編碼)is an artificial intelligence-assisted software development style popularized by Andrej Karpathy in February 2025.The term was listed in the Merriam-Webster Dictionary the following month as a "slang & trending" term. It describes a chatbot-based approach to creating software where the developer describes a project or task to a large language model (LLM), which generates code based on the prompt. Unlike traditional AI-assisted coding or pair programming, the human developer avoids micromanaging the code, accepts AI-suggested completions liberally, and focuses more on iterative experimentation than code correctness or structure. (Wikipedia)

2025年8月18日 星期一

「關稅開始產生影響」:最新通膨和就業數據引發華爾街對美國經濟的擔憂

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

'Tariffs are starting to bite': Latest inflation, jobs data sparks Wall Street concern over US economy

Yahoo Finance - Allie Canal Senior Reporter

Sun, August 3, 2025 at 6:00 a.m. PDT·4 min read

Stocks have continued to notch record highs this year as investors bet on a resilient economy and minimal fallout from tariff-driven inflation. But last week, both assumptions came under pressure.

It was a packed week for economic data, offering a more nuanced and, in some cases, sobering look at the state of the US economy. The week kicked off with signs of strain in the labor market: The hiring rate fell to a seven-month low, and the quits rate, a key measure of worker confidence, dropped to just 2%.

On Wednesday, GDP data showed the economy rebounded at a 3% annualized pace in the second quarter, recovering from a surprise Q1 contraction driven by a pre-tariff surge in imports. But economists cautioned that the headline growth masked underlying softness. Sales to private domestic purchasers, a key proxy for consumer and business demand, rose just 1.2%, the weakest pace since 2022.

Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, called the rebound an "economic mirage," adding that policy uncertainty, rising inflation pressures from tariffs, and tighter immigration constraints are starting to weigh more visibly on economic activity.

Then, after the Fed held interest rates steady, Thursday's release of its preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed price increases accelerated in June as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target. Consumer spending also showed signs of strain as real personal spending rose just 0.1% in June following a revised 0.2% drop in May.

The week culminated in a disappointing July jobs report, which offered the clearest sign yet that the labor market may be cracking. The US added just 73,000 jobs, far short of the 104,000 forecast. Even more striking were sharp downward revisions to May and June, which erased a combined 258,000 jobs, the largest two-month downgrade since May 2020.

Taken in totality, last week's data painted a picture of mounting economic pressure, with growing signs that households are beginning to feel the strain as the second half of the year gets underway.

"Tariffs are starting to bite," EY's Daco told Yahoo Finance. "They're leading to higher inflationary pressures, which are curtailing consumer spending and prompting businesses to adopt more of a wait-and-see approach."

Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said the overall trend is becoming clearer: "The signs are that consumer spending is losing momentum." He added that "as real income growth wanes, we expect an increasing drag on consumer spending, particularly on discretionary purchases and goods most exposed to tariff-driven price increases."

While auto sales had been front-loaded earlier this year ahead of tariff implementation, Pearce pointed to renewed declines in tariff-sensitive categories like furniture. He noted that any short-term lift from early buying is now "mostly in the rear-view mirror," and warned that consumers have yet to fully absorb the impact of tariff-driven shocks to income and purchasing power.

Adding to the pressure, trade tensions escalated as President Trump raised tariff rates on several US trading partners, including a surprise 39% levy on imports from Switzerland.

"There's a repeated refrain that tariffs are not having an impact, and that assessment misses the mark," Wells Fargo economists, led by Jay Bryson, said in the latest installment of Yahoo Finance's Chartbook series.

"Consumer spending is not as sturdy as it was initially reported in the first quarter," the team added. "With two months of data on hand for the second quarter, it is becoming increasingly clear that households are reducing their discretionary outlays."

The strain is also beginning to show in corporate earnings.

"When you take a look at companies like Whirlpool, like P&G, they are being impacted by tariffs," Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, told Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. "There seems to be a sort of bifurcation when it comes to how tariffs are impacting bottom lines. Those that are focused on products for consumers ... And then you've got other companies, like Big Tech, that is sort of immune to the tariff situation."

But even Big Tech is starting to feel the squeeze. Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook warned this week that the company expects a $1.1 billion tariff hit this quarter. Elsewhere, a slew of consumer-facing companies, including Shake Shack (SHAK), Canada Goose (GOOS), and snack maker Kellanova (K), have struggled this earnings season as price-sensitive shoppers pull back.

Translation

「關稅開始產生影響」:最新通膨和就業數據引發華爾街對美國經濟的擔憂

由於投資人押注經濟將維持韌性,關稅引發的通膨影響將微乎其微,今年股市持續創下歷史新高。但上週,這兩種假設都面臨壓力。

本週經濟數據密集,為美國經濟狀況提供了更細緻入微、在某些情況下甚至更令人警醒的視角。本週開始,勞動市場就出現了緊張的跡象:招聘率跌至七個月低點,而衡量工人信心的關鍵指標 - 離職率 - 則降至僅2%

週三公佈的GDP數據顯示,美國經濟第二季以3%的年化速度反彈,從第一季受關稅前進口激增推動的意外萎縮中復甦。但經濟學家警告稱,整體成長掩蓋了潛在的疲軟。對國內私人買家的銷售, 是一個消費者和企業需求的重要指標, 僅成長1.2%,為2022年以來的最低成長速度。

EY-Parthenon 首席經濟學家 Greg Daco 稱這次反彈是經濟海市蜃樓 ,並補充說,政策不確定性、關稅帶來的通膨壓力上升, 以及更嚴格的移民限制正開始對經濟活動產生更明顯的壓力。

隨後,在聯儲局維持利率穩定後,週四發布的其首選通膨指標的個人消費支出(PCE)指數顯示,6月物價上漲加速,通膨率仍高於聯儲局2%的目標。消費者支出也顯示出過勞的跡象,6月實際個人支出僅成長0.1%,而5月份經修正後是0.2%的下降。

本週以令人失望的7月就業報告收尾,該報告提供了迄今為止最清晰的跡象,表明勞動力市場可能正在崩潰。美國新增就業人數僅7.3萬個,遠低於預期的 10.4 萬個。更令人震驚的是,5月和6月就業機會大幅下調,共減少了25.8萬個就業崗位,這是自20205月以來最大的兩個月降幅。

總體而言,上週的數據描繪了一幅經濟壓力不斷上升的景象,越來越多的跡象表明,隨著下半年的到來,家庭開始感受到壓力。

稅開始產生影響EYDaco告訴雅虎財經。它們導致通膨壓力上升,從而抑制了消費者支出,並促使企業採取更多的觀望態度。

牛津經濟研究院 (Oxford Economics) 副首席美國經濟學家 Michael Pearce表示,總體趨勢正變得更加清晰:「有跡象表明,消費者支出正在失去動力」。他補充道:「隨著實際收入增長放緩,我們預計消費者支出將受到越來越大的拖累,尤其是非必需品購買和最容易受到關稅驅動價格上漲影響的商品。」

儘管今年稍早汽車銷售在關稅實施前已提前上漲,但Pearce指出,家具等對關稅敏感的類別再次出現下滑。他指出,任何早期購買帶來的短期提振現在都 基本上成為過去,並警告稱,消費者尚未完全消化關稅對收入和購買力衝擊的影響。

貿易緊張局勢進一步升級,特朗普總統提高了對多個美國貿易夥伴的關稅,其中包括對瑞士進口產品意外徵收39%的關稅,這加劇了貿易壓力。

Jay Bryson為首的富國銀行經濟學家在雅虎財經圖表手冊系列的最新一期中表示:人們反覆強調關稅沒有產生影響,這種評估沒有抓到重點。

該團隊補充道:消費者支出並不像第一季最初報告的那樣強勁”; “根據目前掌握的第二季度兩個月數據,越來越明顯的是,家庭正在減少可自由支配的支出。

企業獲利也開始顯現壓力。

Piper Sandler 首席投資策略師 Michael Kantrowitz 在接受雅虎財經「Opening Bid」專欄採訪時表示:「看看惠而浦、P&G等公司,它們都受到了關稅的影響。關稅對不同企業的底線影響似乎存在分別。我們有那些專注於為消費者提供產品的公司我們有其他公司,例如大型科技,則基本不受關的影響。」

但即使是大型科技公司也開始感受到壓力。蘋果 (AAPL) 執行長 Tim Cook 本週警告稱,該公司預計本季將受到 11 億美元的關稅衝擊。此外,由於對價格敏感的消費者減少,包括 Shake Shack (SHAK)、加拿大鵝 (GOOS) 和零食製造商 Kellanova (K) 內的一系列面向消費者的公司在本財報季都面對艱難。

 So, US stocks have continued to reach record highs this year as investors bet on a resilient economy and minimal fallout from tariff-driven inflation, but recently both assumptions are coming under pressure. Recent economic data are suggesting signs of strain in the labor market: The hiring rate fell to a seven-month low while the quits rate dropped to just 2%. Sales to private domestic purchasers rose just 1.2%, the weakest pace since 2022. Apparently, the US economy situation is facing uncertainty.

2025年8月17日 星期日

Research in Progress on Adding Ethanol to Vegetables to Help Them Grow in High Temperature Environments

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

野菜にエタノール与え気温高い環境でも成長させる研究進む

202581 1931

記録的な暑さの影響で野菜の不作や品質の低下が問題となる中、理化学研究所の研究グループは野菜にアルコールの1種「エタノール」を与えることで、気温が高い環境でも安定して成長させる研究を進めています。

農林水産省によりますと、暑い日が続くと、キャベツなど葉物野菜の成長が止まったり、トマトの実がならなかったりとさまざまな農作物に影響が出るため、生産量の減少や品質の低下が懸念されています。

暑さに強い野菜の栽培方法を研究している理化学研究所・環境資源科学研究センターの関原明チームディレクターのグループは植物にアルコールの1種「エタノール」を根から吸わせたり、葉の上から噴霧したりすると気温が高い環境でも安定して成長することを突き止めました。

研究グループの実験では、ミニトマトに0.1%ほどに薄めたエタノール液を吸わせたあと、50度の気温に数時間さらして成長をみたところ、水だけを与えた場合と比べて、葉が大きく育ち、実の数も3倍以上になったということです。

さらにエタノールを与えたさまざまな植物を分析したところ、高温から細胞を守るたんぱく質の増加が見られたり、葉や実などに含まれる糖分が増えたりといった変化がみられたということで、研究グループは、エタノールには、厳しい暑さの中でも植物が育つ能力を引き出す効果があるとしています。

関チームディレクターは、「手に入りやすいエタノールを、希釈して与えるだけという簡単にできる方法なので、さらに研究を進めて世界に広めることで、異常な猛暑による農業の問題を少しでも緩和していきい」と話しています。

 

枝豆 エタノールを与えて栽培 生産会社は

静岡県菊川市で枝豆を生産する会社では、去年の夏の暑さの影響で7月下旬以降、7割ほど収穫量が減ったことから、ことしから希釈したエタノールを与えて栽培する新たな対策を取り入れました。

会社では、暑さが本格化したことし7月から枝豆を育てている畑に7%ほどのエタノール液を、10日おきにドローンで散布しています。

その結果、畑10アール当たりおよそ730キロの収穫があったということで、散布しないで栽培した場合と比べ面積当たりの収穫量は2倍程度になったということです。

また、収穫期までの期間も4日ほど短縮されたということです。

枝豆を生産する会社の深川知久社長は、「期待以上の結果が得られた。暑さに左右されることなく、計画的な栽培が可能となり、経営上も大きなメリットだ。今後、この暑さや乾燥と付き合いながら農業をする1つの答えではないか」と話していました。

Translation

Research in Progress on Adding Ethanol to Vegetables to Help Them Grow in High Temperature Environments

Amid concerns about poor harvests and declining quality due to record-breaking heat, a research group at the RIKEN Institute was conducting research to add ethanol, a type of alcohol, to vegetables to help them grow steadily even in high temperatures.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, prolonged hot weather could affect a variety of agricultural crops, such as halting the growth of leafy vegetables like cabbage and preventing tomatoes from bearing fruit, raising concerns about reduced production and declining quality.

A group led by Team Director Motoaki Seki (関原明)of the RIKEN Center for Sustainable Resource Science which was researching on methods to cultivate heat-tolerant vegetables had discovered that allowing plants to absorb ethanol, a type of alcohol, through their roots or spraying it on their leaves could allow them to grow steadily even in high temperatures.

In their experiment, the research group made cherry tomatoes to absorb some 0.1% diluted ethanol solution and then exposed them to temperatures of 50°C for several hours. The results showed that compared to plants given only water, their leaves grew larger and they produced more than three times as many fruits.

Further analysis of various plants given ethanol revealed changes such as an increase in proteins that protect cells from high temperatures and an increase in sugar content in the leaves and fruits. The research group concluded that ethanol enhances plants' ability to grow even in extreme heat.

Team Director Seki said, "This method is simple; all you have to do is dilute readily available ethanol and give it to plants. By furthering our research and spreading it around the world, we hope to alleviate the agricultural problems caused by extreme heat, even only a little bit."

 

Edamame Soybeans Cultivated with Ethanol: Production Company

A company that produced edamame soybeans in Kikugawa City of Shizuoka Prefecture saw its harvest drop by about 70% in late July last summer due to the heat, so this year they adopted a new strategy of cultivating plants with diluted ethanol.

As the heat intensified, since July the company had been using drones to spray a 7% ethanol solution every 10 days on the fields where they grew edamame beans.

As a result, they were able to harvest approximately 730 kg from 10 measures of fields, which in comparation was about double the yield from similar size using cultivation without spraying.

The time until the harvest had also been shortened by about four days.

Tomohisa Fukagawa (深川知久), president of the edamame producing company, said, "We have achieved results that exceeded our expectations. We can now plan cultivation without being affected by the heat, which is a major benefit from a business perspective. We believe this is one way to farm while dealing with heat and dryness in the future."

So, amid concerns about poor harvests and declining quality due to record-breaking heat, a research group at the RIKEN Institute is conducting research to add ethanol, a type of alcohol, to help vegetables grow steadily even in high temperatures. Apparently, this could be one way to do farming when dealing with heat and dryness. It is good news to farmers.

Note:

1. 理化学研究所, in short known as 理研 (in English: stylized in all caps as RIKEN) is a national scientific research institute in Japan. Founded in 1917, it now has about 3,000 scientists on seven campuses across Japan, including the main site at Wakō, Saitama Prefecture, on the outskirts of Tokyo. (Wikipedia)

2. アール is a measurement of area (100 sq.m.)​ adopted from French.

2025年8月16日 星期六

匯豐控股利潤暴跌,因中國業務虧損加劇

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

HSBC profit tumbles as China losses mount

Reuters - Selena Li and Lawrence White

Updated Wed, July 30, 2025 at 1:59 a.m. PDT·4 min read

HONG KONG/LONDON (Reuters) -HSBC Holdings reported a sharper-than-expected drop in profit on Wednesday, hurt by write-downs from exposures to a Chinese bank and Hong Kong real estate, while the bank pushed ahead with a global restructuring.

Its 26% slump in pretax profit in the first half showed the challenge ahead for CEO Georges Elhedery, as Europe's largest bank racked up losses in China, where it has increasingly pinned its plans for growth in recent years after shrinking in Western markets.

Elhedery, who has unleashed a sweeping restructuring at the bank after taking charge last year, said in an earnings conference call that the bank started reviews of its retail banking business in Australia, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, and will start winding down its Bangladesh retail business in the second half of this year.

The lender's corporate and institutional banking businesses were unaffected by these developments, he said.

The bank posted a profit of $15.8 billion for the first six months of this year, missing brokers' estimates of $16.5 billion.

London-listed shares of HSBC fell 4.5%, matching earlier losses in its Hong Kong shares.

The lender's shares have risen 36% in the last year, as it benefited from higher returns on its lending and grew income in its wealth business, though that lagged a 76% gain over the same period in rival Standard Chartered.

HSBC took a further $2.1 billion hit from its stake in state-run Bank of Communications, following a $3 billion impairment it took in February 2024 amid mounting bad loans in China.

CEO Elhedery downplayed the impairments on the bank's BoCom stake, saying it would have no impact on its ability to pay dividends.

"These are accounting-related impairments...they do not impact the outlook we have on the Chinese economy, they are paper losses," he said on the call.

The new writedown included a $1.1 billion loss as a result of the Chinese bank's fundraising earlier this year, which diluted HSBC's ownership.

China's property market, once a key growth driver for the world's second-largest economy, has been in a multi-year tailspin despite repeated government attempts to revive weak consumer demand, which left losses on domestic lenders' loan books.

HSBC's expected credit losses grew by $900 million compared to the first half of last year to $1.9 billion, the bank said, partly due to its exposure to Hong Kong's troubled commercial real estate sector.

A sluggish property market in Hong Kong could continue to weigh on the asset quality of banks operating in Hong Kong, analysts from Citigroup said.

Hang Seng Bank, which is 62% owned by HSBC, saw shares slump close to 7% on Wednesday after a 224% increase in Hong Kong real estate credit charges in the second quarter from a year ago.

 

DOUR OUTLOOK

HSBC also said the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs could cause it to miss its profitability target of a mid-teens return on tangible equity in future years, in a scenario where the economy deteriorates and central banks slash policy rates.

The lender disclosed it expects to recognise a loss of around $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter this year, when it completes the sale of a mortgage portfolio in France to insurer Rothesay and French lender CCF.

The corporate and institutional banking business, HSBC's biggest revenue earner after a sweeping reorganisation since last year, delivered $6.4 billion in pretax profit in the first half, up 4% from same period last year, and was the only business segment out of four main divisions that saw profit increase.

The lender, with a market value of $225 billion, announced a new share buyback worth up to $3 billion, in line with expectations, on top of a $3 billion buyback programme announced earlier this year.

The bank said it would pay an interim dividend of 10 cents a share.

HSBC's immediate challenge is to find a replacement for Chairman Mark Tucker, who announced his plan to step down in May after eight years at the bank, said Morningstar senior analyst Michael Makdad.

"It needs to make sure that shareholders in Asia remain on board with the strategic direction CEO Elhedery is taking centered on simplification and intensive cost-cutting, but without a radical overhaul of the entire business model," he said.

Translation

匯豐控股利潤暴跌,因中國業務虧損加劇

香港/倫敦(路透社) - 匯豐控股週三公佈,利潤降幅超預期,原因是其對一家中資銀行和香港房地產業務的風險敞口減,同時該行正在推進全球重組。

匯豐控股上半年稅前利潤暴跌26%,凸顯了執行長 Georges Elhedery面臨的挑戰。這家歐洲最大的銀行在中國市場不斷虧損,而近年來,在縮減西方市場業務後,匯豐控股的成長計劃越來越多地專注中國市場。

Elhedery去年上任後,對匯豐銀行進行了全面重組。他在財報電話會議上表示,匯豐已開始審查其在澳洲、印尼和斯里蘭卡的零售銀行業務,並將在今年下半年開始逐步縮減其在孟加拉的零售銀行業務。

他表示,貸款企業和機構銀行業務上並未受到這些變化的影響。

匯豐銀行今年上半年獲利158億美元,低於券商預期的165億美元。

在倫敦上市的匯豐銀行股價下跌4.5%,與其香港股票早前的跌幅吻合。

匯豐銀行股價去年上漲了36%,得益於貸款業務回報率的提高和財富管理業務收入的增長,儘管這一漲幅低於其競爭對手渣打銀行同期76%的漲幅。

匯豐銀行持有的國營交通銀行股份再度遭受21億美元的損失,此前該行於20242月因中國不良貸款激增而受到30億美元的減損。

執行長Elhedery淡化了該行所持交通銀行股份的減損損失,稱這不會影響其派息能力。

他在電話會議上表示:這些是與會計相關的減這不會影響我們對中國經濟展望,而是帳面損失。

新的減損包括中國銀行的今年稍早因融資導致的11億美元損失,這稀釋了匯豐銀行的持股比例。

中國房地產市場曾是世界第二大經濟體的主要成長動力,儘管政府多次嘗試重振疲軟的消費需求,但多年來一直處於低迷狀態,導致國內銀行的貸款帳簿上出現虧損。

匯豐銀行表示,其預期信貸損失較去年上半年增加9億美元,達到19億美元,部分原因是其在香港陷入困境的商業房地產領域的風險敞口。

花旗集團分析師表示,香港房地產市場低迷可能會繼續拖累在港營運的銀行的資產質素。

匯豐銀行持有恆生銀行62%的股份,該行股價週三暴跌近7%,原因是其第二季香港房地產信貸費用較去年同期增加了224%


前景嚴峻

匯豐銀行也表示,在經濟惡化,且各國央行大幅下調政策利率的情況下,美國總統特朗普的貿易關稅措施可能導致其未來幾年無法實現有形資產回報率達到大約15% 的獲利目標。

該行披露,預計今年第四季將出現約14億美元的虧損,屆時將完成向保險公司Rothesay和法國貸款機構CCF出售法國抵押貸款組合的交易。

企業及機構銀行業務是匯豐自去年以來進行全面重組後最大的收入來源,上半年實現了64億美元的稅前利潤,年增長4%,是四大主要部門中唯一實現利潤增長的業務部門。

這家市2,250億美元的銀行宣佈,根據在年初宣佈的30億美元股票回購計劃的基礎上,再進行一項高達30億美元的股票回購,這與預期相符。

該行表示,將派發每股10美分的中期股息。

晨星高級分析師 Michael Makdad 表示,匯豐目前面臨的挑戰是尋找董事長 Mark Tucker 的繼任人。 Tucker在該行任職八年後,於5月宣佈了卸任計劃。

說:公司需要確保亞洲股東繼續支持首席執行官 Elhedery 所採取的以簡化和大幅削減成本為中心的戰略方向,不會去徹底改革整個商業模式。

So, HSBC Holdings reported a sharper-than-expected drop in profit that was hurt by write-downs from exposures to a Chinese bank and Hong Kong real estate. HSBC also said the impact of U.S.'s trade tariffs could cause it to miss its profitability target. Apparently, banking business in Hong Kong is having a difficult time.

2025年8月15日 星期五

美國商品貿易逆差因進口大幅下降創近兩年新低

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

US goods trade deficit hits nearly two-year low as imports tumble

Reuters - Lucia Mutikani

Updated Tue, July 29, 2025 at 6:44 a.m. PDT·3 min read

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to the lowest level in nearly two years in June as imports fell sharply, cementing economists' expectations that trade likely accounted for much of an anticipated rebound in economic growth in the second quarter.

While the unexpected contraction reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday could prompt economists to upgrade their gross domestic product estimates for last quarter, the steep decline in imports flagged slowing domestic demand.

Imports surged in the first quarter as businesses rushed to beat higher prices from President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on foreign merchandise, contributing to the first decline in GDP in three years. The Trump administration has announced a number of trade deals which economists said could help to ease uncertainty.

"This lends upside risk for our (GDP) forecast," said Matthew Martin, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "As trade policy uncertainty eases, imports and exports may begin to find their troughs in the second half of the year and become less volatile."

The goods trade gap narrowed 10.8% to $86.0 billion last month, the lowest level since September 2023, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the goods trade deficit would rise to $98.20 billion.

Imports of goods decreased $11.5 billion, or 4.2%, to $264.2 billion, the lowest level since March 2024. The decline was led by a 12.4% plunge in consumer goods imports.

Industrial supplies imports, which include crude oil and non-monetary gold, slumped 5.5%. Imports of foods, feeds and beverages fell 1.1%, while those of motor vehicles decreased 2.0%. But capital goods imports rose 0.6%.

Goods exports slipped $1.1 billion, or 0.6%, to $178.2 billion. They were held back by an 8.1% drop in exports of industrial supplies. But exports of capital goods shot up 4.7%, while shipments of foods, feeds and beverages increased 4.0%. Shipments of consumer goods advanced 1.5%.

The government is scheduled to publish its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. A Reuters survey of economists forecasts that GDP rebounded at a 2.4% rate in the April-June period after contracting at a 0.5% in the first three months of this year.

Though a reversal is expected in the trade deficit after it sliced off a record 4.61 percentage points from GDP in the first quarter, some of the boost to growth was likely partially offset by businesses drawing down on some of the imports, which had landed in warehouses as inventory.

The Census Bureau report also showed wholesale inventories increased 0.2% in June after declining by 0.3% in May.

Stocks at retailers rose 0.3%, matching May's gain. They were driven by a 0.9% increase in motor vehicle stocks. Excluding motor vehicles, retail inventories were unchanged. This component goes into the GDP calculation.

Translation

美國商品貿易逆差因進口大幅下降創近兩年新低

華盛頓(路透社)由於進口大幅下降,美國6月份商品貿易逆差收窄至近兩年來的最低水平,這鞏固了經濟學家的預期,即貿易可能在很大程度上推動了第二季度經濟成長的預期反彈。

儘管美國商務部週二公佈的意外萎縮可能促使經濟學家上調對上季國內生產毛額(GDP)的預期,但進口的大幅下降表明國內需求正在放緩。

由於企業爭相應對特朗普總統對外國商品徵收全面關稅導致的價格上漲,第一季進口激增,導致GDP三年來首次下降。特朗普政府宣布了一系列貿易協議,經濟學家表示,這些協議可能有助於緩解不確定性。

牛津經濟研究院高級美國經濟學家 Matthew Martin 表示:這給我們的(GDP)預測帶來了上行風險。隨著貿易政策不確定性的緩解,進出口可能在下半年開始觸底,波動性也會降低。

美國商務部人口普查局表示,上個月商品貿易逆差收窄10.8%,至860億美元,為20239月以來的最低水準。路透社調查的經濟學家先前預測,商品貿易逆差將升至982億美元。

商品進口減少115億美元,至2,642億美元,降幅4.2%,為20243月以來的最低水準。降幅是由消費品進口下降12.4%所帶動。

包括原油和非貨幣黃金在內的工業用品進口量下降5.5%。食品、飼料和飲料進口下降1.1%,汽車進口下降2.0%。但資本貨物進口成長0.6%

商品出口下滑11億美元,至1,782億美元,降幅0.6%。由工業用品出口下降8.1%所導致。但資本貨物出口飆漲4.7%,食品、飼料和飲料出口增加4.0%。消費品出口增長1.5%

政府定於週三公佈第二季GDP值。路透社對經濟學家的調查預測,GDP在今年第一季縮小0.5%後,4-6月將反彈2.4%

儘管貿易逆差在第一季創紀錄地削減了GDP4.61個百分點,預計未來將出現逆轉,部分成長推動力可能因企業減少進口而部分抵消, 這些進口商品以庫存形式存入倉庫。

美國人口普查局的報告也顯示,繼5月則下降了0.3%, 6月批發庫存增加了0.2%,。

零售庫存增長了0.3%,對應5月份的增幅。這主要由於汽車庫存成長了0.9%。撇除機動車,零售庫存保持不變。這部分已納入GDP的計算。

So, the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed to the lowest level in nearly two years in June as imports fell sharply.  Yet a steep decline in imports suggests a slowing domestic demand. Apparently, there is an uncertainty in how the US markets will behave as the tariff war plays out.

 

2025年8月14日 星期四

俄羅斯的軍事資金關鍵支柱正在崩潰。時機再糟糕不過了

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

The key pillar of Russia's war chest is cracking. The timing couldn't be worse.

Business Insider - Huileng Tan

Updated Wed, August 6, 2025 at 8:29 p.m. PDT·4 min read

Russia's revenue from oil and gas has plunged recently, putting further pressure on Moscow to end its war in Ukraine.

In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin's administration collected 787.3 billion rubles, or $9.8 billion, from oil and gas revenue — 27% lower than a year ago, according to the country's finance ministry on Tuesday.

The decline in energy tax revenue further strains Russia's budget, which posted a deficit of 3.7 trillion rubles, or 1.7% of GDP, in the first half of the year. Oil and gas remain vital to Russia's economy and to funding its war, now in its fourth year.

That funding is now under threat on multiple fronts.

Last month, the European Union unveiled its 18th sanctions package against Russia. It replaced the fixed $60-per-barrel cap on Russian oil with a more flexible mechanism that limits prices to 15% below global market averages, effectively slashing Moscow's revenue on each exported barrel.

But the pressure isn't just coming from Europe.

 

Trump targets India over Russian oil

Recently, Trump has sharpened his rhetoric — and trade threats — against countries buying Russian oil, singling out India, a top buyer of the fuel.

Last week, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and a "penalty" for its purchases of Russian oil.

"I think I'm going to raise that very substantially over the next 24 hours because they're buying Russian oil, they're fueling the war machine," Trump told CNBC in a Tuesday phone interview.

On Wednesday, the American president doubled that rate to 50%. The higher levy would take effect within 21 days.

India's external affairs ministry pushed back, saying on Monday that its energy imports are focused on ensuring "predictable and affordable energy costs" for Indian consumers.

Trump said last week that he wants a deal to end Russia's war with Ukraine by August 8.

"Putin will stop killing people if you get energy down another $10 a barrel. He's going to have no choice because his economy stinks," Trump told CNBC on Tuesday.

Even with Trump's ultimatum, Russia is likely to dig in its heels, according to Tatiana Orlova, a lead emerging markets economist at Oxford Economics.

"The Russian leadership seems to view the economy's resilience during the first three and a half years of war as proof that it is immune to further sanctions," Orlova wrote in a Wednesday note.

She estimates there's a 70% chance Russia continues the war.

If that happens, Washington is likely to respond with additional sanctions, particularly targeting Russia's energy sector, she said.

"The Russian economy is rapidly losing momentum, and additional 'biting' sanctions could tip it into recession, depending on the severity of the new measures," she added.

 

India could make a deal for trade relief

While most analysts believe India is unlikely to drastically reduce its Russian oil intake, some say it could be used as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with Washington.

"Some reduction in Russian oil imports as part of a grand bargain is not outlandish, given that Russian crude share of total crude imports has surged from being negligible to ~38% since 2022," wrote Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho's head of macro research for Asia, excluding Japan.

Varathan cited the "dire threat of unrelenting US geo-economic pressures" as a key factor in why Delhi could reduce dependency on Russian oil as part of a trade deal with Trump.

Crude oil futures rose briefly following Trump's tariff threats but ended Wednesday lower as weak fundamentals persist.

US crude oil futures are down about 10% year to date, with global supply remaining strong as OPEC ramps up output. Demand from China, a major importer, is also weak amid a prolonged economic slowdown.

Analysts at ING said the market could absorb modest price increases if India cuts Russian oil imports and shifts to other suppliers. But they warned broader pullbacks could be disruptive.

"If India were to stop buying Russian oil amid tariff threats, we believe the market would be able to cope with the loss of this supply," wrote commodities strategists at ING in a Wednesday note.

However, the bigger risk is if other major Russian oil buyers also start to avoid buying the commodity.

"This would require OPEC to tap into its spare production capacity quickly and aggressively to balance the market. This could result in significant further upside for prices," they wrote.

Translation

俄羅斯的軍事資金關鍵支柱正在崩潰。時機再糟糕不過了

俄羅斯的石油和天然氣收入近期大幅下降,這給莫斯科帶來了進一步的壓力,迫使其結束在烏克蘭的戰爭。

根據俄羅斯財政部週二公佈的數據,今年7月,俄羅斯總統普京政府的石油和天然氣收入為7,873億盧布,約合98億美元,比去年同期下降了27%

能源稅收的下降進一步加劇了俄羅斯的預算壓力,今年上半年俄羅斯的預算赤字達到3.7兆盧布,佔GDP1.7%。石油和天然氣對俄羅斯經濟以及已進入第四年的戰爭資金仍然至關重要。

這些資金目前正面臨多方面的威脅。

上個月,歐盟公佈了針對俄羅斯的第18項制裁方案。該方案取代了對俄羅斯石油每桶60美元的固定上限,取而代之的是一套更靈活的機制,將價格限制在全球市場平均以下15%,這實際上大幅削減了莫斯科每桶出口石油的收入。

但壓力不僅來自歐洲。

 

特朗普就俄羅斯石油問題瞄準印度

最近,特朗普加強了針對購買俄羅斯石油國家的措辭和貿易威脅,並將印度 - 即俄羅斯石油的最大買家 - 特別強調提及。

上週,特朗普宣布對印度商品徵收25%的關稅,並對其購買俄羅斯石油處以「罰款」。

特朗普在周二接受CNBC電話採訪時表示:我認為我將在未來24小時內大幅提高稅率,因為他們正在購買俄羅斯石油,他們正在為戰爭機器提供燃料。

週三,美國總統將稅率翻倍至50%。較高的稅率將在21內生效。

印度外交部週一反駁稱,其能源進口的重點是確保印度消費者獲得「可預測且可負擔的能源成本」。

特朗普上週表示,他希望在88日前達成協議,結束俄羅斯與烏克蘭的戰爭。

特朗普週二告訴CNBC如果能源價格再下降10美元/桶,普京就會停止殺人。他將別無選擇,因為他的經濟狀況十分糟糕。

牛津經濟研究院首席新興市場經濟學家 Tatiana Orlova 表示,即使特朗普發出最後通牒,俄羅斯仍可能堅持己見。

Orlova 在周三的一份報告中寫道:俄羅斯領導層似乎將俄羅斯經濟在戰爭前三年半的韌性視為其不受進一步製裁影響的證據。

她估計,俄羅斯繼續戰爭的可能性為70%

她表示,如果發生這種情況,華盛頓可能會採取進一步製裁措施,特別是針對俄羅斯的能源領域。

她補充說:俄羅斯經濟正在迅速失去動力,額外的嚴厲制裁可能會使其陷入衰退,這取決於新措施的嚴重程度。

 

印度或將達成減輕貿易損失的協議

雖然大多數分析師認為印度不太可能大幅減少對俄羅斯石油的進口,但一些人表示,這可以作為與華盛頓進行貿易談判的籌碼。

Mizuho的亞洲(不包括日本)宏觀研究主管 Vishnu Varathan 寫道:「作為一項大協議的一部分,減少俄羅斯石油進口量並不奇怪,因為自2022年以來,俄羅斯原油在印度總進口量中的佔比已從微不足道飆升至約38%。」

Varathan 指出,「美國持續不斷的地緣經濟壓力帶來可怕威脅」是印度在與特朗普達成貿易協議的過程中可能減少對俄羅斯石油依賴的關鍵因素。

在特朗普發出關稅威脅後,原油期貨一度上漲,但由於基本面持續疲軟,週三收盤走低。

美國原油期貨價格今年迄今下跌約10%,隨著 OPEC 產,全球供應仍強勁。在經濟長期放緩的背景下,主要進口國中國的需求也較為疲軟。

ING 分析師們表示,如果印度減少從俄羅斯的石油進口並轉向其他供應國,市場可以消化小幅價格上漲。但他們警告稱,更廣泛的回調可能會造成破壞性影響。

ING大宗商品策略師們在周三的一份報告中寫道:如果印度在關稅威脅下停止購買俄羅斯石油,我們相信市場將能夠應對供應減少的損失。

然而,更大的風險在於其他主要的俄羅斯石油買家是否也開始避免購買這商品。

他們寫道:這將需要OPEC迅速而積極地利用其閒置產能來平衡市場。這可能會導致油價進一步大幅上漲。

So, Russia's revenue from oil and gas has plunged recently, putting further pressure on Moscow to end its war in Ukraine. In July, Putin's administration collected $9.8 billion from oil and gas revenue which was 27% lower than a year ago. The decline in energy tax revenue strains Russia's budget further. Oil and gas are vital to Russia's economy and its war effort. Apparently, Putin needs to handle the situation carefully.

Note:

1. In investing or market analysis, a 'broader pullback' refers to a decline in prices across the market or within a sector, usually due to market sentiment or economic factors.

2025年8月13日 星期三

一項新研究表明,史前尼安德特人的飲食中蛆蟲含量豐富 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Prehistoric Neanderthal diets were maggot heavy, a new study suggests (2/2)

Katie Hunt, CNN

Fri, July 25, 2025 at 12:24 p.m. PDT·7 min read

(continue)

‘No brainer’

It was a “no brainer” that Neanderthals ate maggots, said Karen Hardy, a professor of prehistoric archaeology at the University of Glasgow in Scotland.

Hardy, who wasn’t involved in the study, said the authors provided a “strong argument in favor of maggot consumption,” although such behavior is unlikely to be conclusively proven because maggot remains do not survive in the archaeological record.

“The surprise element is more to do with our Western perspective on what is edible and what is not,” she added.

Today, at least 2 billion people worldwide are estimated to consume insects as part of traditional diets, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

The study also noted that, according to historical accounts, many indigenous peoples such as the Inuit “viewed thoroughly putrefied, maggot-infested animal foods as highly desirable fare, not starvation rations.” Many such groups, according to the study, “routinely, often intentionally, allowed animal foods to decompose to the point where they were crawling with maggots, in some cases even beginning to liquify, and inevitably emitting a stench so overpowering that early European explorers, fur trappers, and missionaries were sickened by it.”

Knud Rasmussen, a polar explorer from Greenland, recorded the following culinary experience, cited in the study, in his 1931 book “The Netsilik Eskimos: Social Life and Spiritual Culture.”

“The meat was green with age, and when we made a cut in it, it was like the bursting of a boil, so full of great white maggots was it. To my horror my companions scooped out handfuls of the crawling things and ate them with evident relish. I criticised their taste, but they … said, not illogically: “You yourself like caribou meat, and what are these maggots but live caribou meat? They taste just the same as the meat and are refreshing to the mouth.”

The study also noted that maggots are not unknown in Western culinary traditions, noting the Sardinian cheese casu marzu is replete with the larvae of cheese skipper flies.

Beasley said that Northern latitude groups still process these foods today and consume them safely when prepared following traditional practices.

Limitations

Beasley’s research on modern-day corpses was exploratory and had several limitations, she cautioned.

The work, which involved small sample sizes, focused on human muscle tissue, not the tissue or organs of animals that might have been hunted by Neanderthals. What’s more, the fly larvae, which came from three different families, might have differed from those that existed in the late Pleistocene, which ended around 11,000 years ago.

The study also didn’t account for the wide variety of climates and temperatures that would have had an effect on stored meat in the Stone Age. She also added that the human body tissue wasn’t cooked, processed or prepared in any way.

Beasley has spoken with researchers in Alaska in the hopes of connecting with native groups that would be interested in sharing traditional food preparations. Her goal is to better understand how that might affect the nitrogen level.

The new research has “opened a fascinating line of inquiry” into the culinary practices of Stone Age hunter-gatherers such as Neanderthals, said Wil Roebroeks, professor emeritus of paleolithic archaeology at Leiden University in the Netherlands. He wasn’t involved in the research.

“It certainly gives a fresh — if that is the right word here — perspective on Neanderthal and other Late Pleistocene humans’ diets,” Roebroeks added.

Translation

一項新研究表明,史前尼安德特人的飲食中蛆蟲含量豐富 (2/2)

(繼續)

毋庸置疑

蘇格蘭格拉斯哥大學史前考古學教授 Karen Hardy 表示,尼安德特人食用蛆蟲是「毋庸置疑」的。

Hardy並未參與這項研究,但她表示,作者們提供了 強有力的論點來支持食用蛆蟲 , 儘管由於考古記錄中沒有蛆蟲的遺體而不太可能最終證實這種行為。

她補充道: 「令人驚訝的因素更多是與我們西方人對可食用和不可食用的視角有關」。

根據聯合國糧食及農業組織估計,如今全球至少有20億人將食用昆蟲作為傳統飲食的一部分。

研究也指出,根據歷史記載,許多原住民民族,例如 Inuit 人,「將徹底腐爛、蛆蟲滋生的肉類食物視為極佳的食物,而非充飢的口糧」。研究指出,許多這樣的群體「經常、通常是故意地讓動物性食物腐爛到爬滿蛆蟲的程度,在某些情況下甚至開始液化,不可避免地散發出令人作嘔的惡臭,令早期的歐洲探險家、毛皮獵人和傳教士感到噁心」。

該研究引用了格陵蘭極地探險家 Knud Rasmussen 在其1931年出版的《內特西利克愛斯基摩人:社會生活與精神文化》一書中記錄了的以下一段的烹飪體驗經歷。

肉隨著時間變綠,我們切開它,感覺就像膿腫破裂,裡面爬滿了巨大的白色蛆蟲。令我驚恐的是,我的同伴們一把一把地舀出這些爬蟲,津津有味地吃著。我批評它們的味道,但他們……卻不無邏輯地說:你自己也喜歡吃馴鹿肉,這些蛆蟲不就是活馴鹿肉嗎?它們的味道和肉一樣,而且吃起來清爽可口。

研究也指出,蛆蟲在西方烹飪傳統中並非聞所未聞,例如撒丁島的 casu marzu 乳酪就充滿乳酪蠅的幼蟲。

Beasley 表示,北緯地區的人們至今仍在加工這些食物,只要按照傳統做法烹調,就能安全食用。

 

局限

Karen Hardy 提醒說,Beasley 對現代屍體的研究是探索性的,存在一些限制。

這項研究的樣本量較小,著重於人體肌肉組織,而不是可能被尼安德特人獵殺動物的組織或器官。此外,來自三個不同科的蠅幼蟲可能與末期更新世(約1.1萬年前結束)的蠅幼蟲有所不同。

這項研究也沒有考慮到石器時代氣候和溫度的多樣性對儲存肉類的影響。她還補充說,無論如何人體組織沒有經過任何烹飪、加工或準備。

Beasley 與阿拉斯加的研究人員進行了交流,希望能與那些有興趣分享傳統食物烹飪方法的當地群體建立聯繫。她的目標是更好地了解這可能會如何影響氮含量。

荷蘭萊頓大學舊石器時代考古學榮譽教授 Wil Roebroeks 表示,這項新研究因探索尼安德特人等石器時代狩獵採集者的烹飪實踐而開闢了一條引人入勝的探索路線 。他並未參與這項研究。

Roebroeks 補充道: 「這無疑為尼安德特人和其他晚更新世人類的飲食提供了一個全新的 - 如果這個詞用得恰當的話 - 視角」。

So, a chemical signature in Neanderthal remains suggests their robust meat-eating habit. Now, new research hints at an unexpected Stone Age food - maggots - that could explain a distinctive chemical signature detected in the bones of prehistoric humans, including Homo sapiens and Neanderthals, and this gives a fresh perspective on Neanderthal and other Late Pleistocene humans’ diets.